第11版《国际劳工组织劳动世界监测报告》

ILO

Monitor

on

the

world

of

work.

Eleventh

editionXA

global

employment

divide:

low-income

countries

will

be

leftfurther

behind

without

action

on

jobs

and

social

protection31May

2023Key

messagesVarious

global

shocks

and

risks

are

holdingresponses,

further

worsening

labour

marketconditions.Xback

labour

market

recovery,

especially

inlow-

and

middle-income

countries.

In

developingcountries,

responding

to

the

current

multiple

crises(or

“polycrisis”)

is

constrained

by

a

combination

ofhigh

inflation

and

high

interest

rates,

along

with

agrowing

risk

of

debt

distress.Some

countries

are

facing

particularly

complexand

cascading

crises,

which

interact

with

broaderglobal

challenges

and

exacerbate

labour

marketimpacts.

They

range

from

natural

disasters

(e.g.

theearthquakes

in

Türkiye

and

Syrian

Arab

Republic)

tomultiple

economic

shocks

(e.g.

in

Sri

Lanka),

whichhave

come

on

top

of

the

lingering

effects

of

theCOVID-19pandemic

and

the

global

cost-of-livingcrisis.XThe

ILO

projects

that

low-income

countries,XAfrica

and

the

Arab

States

are

unlikely

to

recoverto

pre-pandemic

levels

of

unemployment

thisyear.

While

the

global

unemployment

rate

isexpected

to

fall

below

the

pandemic

level

in

2023,this

reflects

stronger-than-expected

resilience

inhigh-income

countries

rather

than

a

generalizedrecovery.Significant

social

protection

policy

gaps

remainin

developing

countries,

especially

in

low-incomecountries,

including

in

regard

to

old-age

pensions.Only

38.6

per

cent

of

older

persons

in

lower-middle-income

and

23.2

per

cent

in

low-incomecountries

receive

an

old-age

pension.Investingin

national

social

protection

systems

based

onequitable

and

sustainable

financing

from

taxesand

social

contributions

and

complemented

byinternational

support

where

needed,

is

necessaryand

will

bring

economic,

social

and

employmentbenefits.XIn

2023,

the

global

jobs

gap

is

projected

to

standXat

453

million

people

(or

11.7per

cent1),

morethan

double

the

level

of

unemployment.The

realscale

of

employment

challenges

is

encapsulatedby

the

ILO’s

jobs

gap

indicator

which

includes

allpersons

who

would

like

to

work

but

do

not

have

ajob.

The

jobs

gap

is

much

higher

among

women(14.5

per

cent)

than

men

(9.8

per

cent).Differences

inthe

jobs

gap

reflect

a

globalThe

ILO’s

new

estimates

confirm

that

buildinga

national

social

protection

floor,for

example,through

expanding

basic

old-age

pensionsin

developing

countries

would

increase

GDPper

capita

in

low-

and

lower-middle-incomecountries

by

14.8

per

cent

within

10years.

Suchbasic

old-age

pensions

in

developing

countrieswould

also

reduce

the

share

of

the

population

livingbelow

the

US$2.15

PPP

poverty

line

by

6

percentagepoints

and

increase

the

income

share

of

thebottom

40

per

cent

of

the

income

distribution

by2.5

percentage

points.

Furthermore,

the

inducedeffects

of

basic

pensions

would

reduce

the

gendergap

in

labour

income

by

3.6

percentage

points,equivalent

to

the

global

progress

registered

in

thelast

15

years.XXemployment

divide.

Low-income

countries

facethe

largest

jobs

gap

rate

at

21.5

per

cent,

while

therate

in

middle-income

countries

stands

slightlyabove

11

per

cent.

High-income

countries

registerthe

lowest

rates,

at

8.2

per

cent.

Low-incomecountries

are

the

only

country

income

group

thathas

seen

a

long-term

rise

in

the

jobs

gap

rate,

from19.1

per

cent

in

2005

to21.5

per

cent

in

2023.Low-income

countries

indebt

distress

face

aXjobs

gap

of

25.7

per

cent

in2023.

In

low-incomecountries

that

are

in

debt

distress,

the

jobs

gap

issignificantly

higher

than

in

developing

countries

atlow

risk

of

debt

distress,

at

25.7

per

cent

comparedwith

11

per

cent.

This

reflects

the

fact

that

financialand

fiscal

constraints

are

hampering

their

policy1The

numerator

of

this

rate

comprises

all

those

without

a

job

and

wanting

one,

while

the

denominator

consists

of

that

figure

in

addition

to

totalemployment.ILO

Monitor

on

the

world

of

work.

Eleventh

edition2The

required

financial

resources

for

expandingbasic

old-age

pensions

are

large

but

notand

approximately

12.5

per

cent

of

global

annualofficial

development

assistance.Xinsurmountable.

For

developing

countries,

theannual

cost

of

providing

basic

old-age

pensions

atthe

level

of

national

poverty

lines

is

equivalent

to1.6per

cent

of

GDP

(2.3

per

cent

and

1.5

per

centof

GDP

for

low-income

and

lower-middle-incomecountries,

respectively).

For

sub-Saharan

Africa,

thecost

would

be

US$23.3

billion,

or

1.4per

cent

of

GDPThe

UN

Global

Accelerator

on

Jobs

and

SocialProtection,

and

the

Global

Coalition

for

SocialJustice,

can

build

global

resources

to

achievebasic

old-age

pensions,

as

one

part

of

a

reformof

the

international

financial

architecture

to

betteraddress

the

needs

of

lower-income

countries.XPart

1.

Latest

trends

inan

uncertain

labour

marketrecoveryX1.

The

context:

unevenimpactof

thepolycrisisdivide

with

the

most

significant

labour

market

deficitsevident

in

low-income

countries.Persistent

inflation

has

led

to

aggressive

monetarypolicy

tightening.

Inflation

rates

around

the

worldstarted

to

rise

in

2021,and

jumped

significantlyin

2022,

in

all

country

income

groups,

leading

tosignificant

monetary

policy

tightening.

At

thebeginning

of

2023,

37

out

of

162countries,

almost

alllow-

and

middle-income,

had

central

bank

interestrates

in

excess

of

10

per

cent

(see

figure

A1

andtable

A1

in

the

statistical

annex).

Continued

highinflation

expectations

are

expected

to

cause

furthermonetary

tightening

in

around

half

of

the

countries:while

almost

all

high-income

countries

are

likely

toexperience

further

tightening,

only

a

minority

of

low-and

middle-income

countries

is

expected

to

do

so.Precipitated

by

the

warinUkraine

and

thelingering

effects

of

the

COVID-19

pandemic,

theongoing

cost-of-living

crisis

has

hurt

incomesand

livelihoods

around

the

world,

especiallyin

developing

countries.

Global

GDP

growth

isexpected

to

decelerate

to

2.8

per

cent

this

year,

downfrom

3.4

per

cent

in

2022.2

This

slowdown

masksa

significant

divergence

between

advanced

anddeveloping

economies.

In

high-income

countries,labour

markets

remain

tight

despite

the

series

ofinterest

rate

rises

(though

some

employment

deficitspersist

even

in

these

economies).

While

some

largeemerging

economies,

such

as

India,

have

returnedto

strong

economic

growth,

low-income

countriesare

facing

high

levels

of

debt

and

rising

costs

ofborrowing,

which

further

constrain

their

efforts

topromote

decent

and

productive

employment.Countries

face

a

trade-off

in

managing

expectedinflation,

exchange

rate

movements,

debtsustainability

and

economic

activity.

High

interestrates

cause

problems

for

debt

sustainability

andnew

debt

financing,

especially

since

many

countrieshave

seen

their

debt-to-GDP

ratios

rise

significantlyduring

the

COVID-19crisis.

Exchange

rate

depreciationin

many

developing

countries

has

contributed

tohigher

inflation

and

interest

rates,

while

worseningthe

external

debt

burden.3

Indeed,

the

proportionof

countries

in

debt

distress

or

at

high

risk

of

debtdistress

has

doubled

to

60

per

cent

compared

with2015levels

(IMF

2023).

Enterprises

and

workers

aredeeply

impacted

during

a

debt

crisis.

Real

interestrates,

which

are

decisive

for

economic

activity,

haveremained

relatively

low

in

advanced

economies.High

inflation

and

interest

rates

continue

to

weighon

many

labour

markets,

while

for

some

countriesthe

situation

is

expected

to

ease

(box

1).

At

thesame

time,

fiscal

space

in

the

poorest

economiesis

severely

constrained,

which

limits

their

policyresponses

to

a

polycrisis

world

defined

by

a

range

ofcomplex

and

cascading

challenges,

including

conflict,natural

disasters

and

economic

crises

that

amplify

theeffects

of

global

shocks

stemming

from

the

COVID-19pandemic

and

the

cost-of-living

crisis.

This

situationhas

contributed

to

a

worsening

global

employment23IMF,

World

Economic

Outlook:

A

Rocky

Recovery,

April

2023.UNCTAD,

Global

Trends

and

Prospects,

Trade

and

Development

Report

Update,

April

2023.ILO

Monitor

on

the

world

of

work.

Eleventh

edition3But

continued

tightening

of

monetary

policy,

alongwith

receding

inflation,

could

raise

expected

andrealized

real

interest

rates

to

higher

levels,

which

willeventually

take

a

toll

on

labour

markets.4a

recession

remains

sizeable,

creating

a

majordownside

risk

for

global

labour

markets

(IMF

2023).Global

estimates

of

unemployment

for

theyears

2020

through

2022

have

been

revisedsubstantially

in

light

of

new

data.7

Consequently,global

unemployment

in

2022

is

now

estimated

at192

million,

compared

to

205

million

reported

in

ILO'sWESO

Trends

2023.

In

2023,

global

unemploymentis

projected

to

fall

to

191

million,

corresponding

toan

unemployment

rate

of

5.3

per

cent.

The

globalrecovery

in

unemployment

rates

following

theCOVID-19crisis

has

been

remarkably

fast

comparedto

previous

crises

such

as

the

global

financial

crisis

of2008–09

(figure

1).2.

Unemployment

and

the

jobs

gapGlobal

unemploymentis

likely

toreturnto

the

pre-pandemic

level

in

2023The

ILO’s

latest

estimates

project

that

the

globalunemployment

ratewill

fall

by

0.1percentagepoints

in

2023

(figure

1).This

implies

a

decline

inthe

total

number

of

globally

unemployed

people

of1

million,5

which

is

due

to

greater-than-anticipatedlabour

market

resilience

in

high-income

countriesin

the

face

of

the

economic

slowdown.6

There

aresigns

that

further

interest

rate

hikes

in

high-incomecountries

will

be

limited

as

central

bankers

start

toprioritize

concerns

about

the

health

of

the

economy.Interest

rates

in

many

low-

and

middle-incomecountries

are

expected

to

remain

stable

or

decline.Nevertheless,

the

risk

of

the

global

economy

enteringYet,

unemployment

in

low-income

countries

andin

the

regions

of

Africa

and

the

Arab

States

is

notexpected

to

recover

to

pre-pandemic

levels

in

2023.The

global

picture

masks

significant

heterogeneityat

the

regional

level

regarding

the

speed

of

recoveryfrom

the

COVID-19crisis.

Unemployment

rates

inAfrica

and

the

Arab

States

in

2023

are

projectedto

remain

elevated

compared

to

2019,while

otherFigure

1.

Unemployment

rate,

2007–23,

world

(percentage)7.06.05.020082010201220142016201820202022Source:

ILO

estimates.4567Monetary

policy

tightening

also

raises

the

risk

of

financial

instability,

which

could

have

a

major

impact

on

the

labour

market.This

is

an

improvement

compared

to

previous

projections

from

January,

when

estimates

indicated

an

increase

of

3

million

(seeWESO

Trends

2023).For

adjustments

of

ILO

estimates

in

comparison

with

those

published

in

WESO

Trends

2023,

see

figures

A1

and

A2

in

the

statistical

annex.The

downward

revision

is

due

primarily

to

newly

incorporated

unemployment

data

from

Indian

labour

force

surveys,

showing

that

the

Indianunemployment

rate

declined

sharply

in

2021

and

2022,

falling

to

4.8

per

cent,

which

is

almost

2

percentage

points

below

its

level

of

2019(6.5

per

cent).

Yet,

even

when

excluding

India,

the

global

unemployment

rate

is

projected

to

fall

back

to

its

pre-pandemic

level

in

2023.ILO

Monitor

on

the

world

of

work.

Eleventh

edition4Figure

2.

Unemployment

rates,

world

and

by(sub)region

and

country

income

group,

2019,

2022and

2023

(percentage)201920222023WorldWorld

excluding

India5.55.45.25.56.04.810.95.78.03.98.74.32.56.47.04.79.25.45.55.75.16.04.611.26.37.03.89.34.72.65.46.35.07.85.35.45.75.15.74.611.26.36.74.09.34.42.45.56.34.67.8Low-income

countriesLower-middle-income

countriesUpper-middle-income

countriesHigh-income

countriesNorthern

AfricaSub-Saharan

AfricaLatin

America

and

the

CaribbeanNorthern

AmericaArab

StatesEastern

AsiaSouth-Eastern

Asia

and

the

PacificSouthern

AsiaNorthern,

Southern

and

Western

EuropeEastern

EuropeCentral

and

Western

AsiaSource:

ILO

estimates.regions

such

as

Latin

America

and

the

Caribbean,Northern,

Southern

and

Western

Europe,

and

Centraland

Western

Asia

have

managed

to

reduce

thoserates

substantially

below

pre-crisis

levels.

Low-incomecountries

so

far

have

failed

to

recover

to

the

rate

ofunemployment

witnessed

in

2019(figure

2).indicator

is

a

useful

complement

to

the

unemploymentrate

and

helps

provide

a

more

comprehensive

view

oflabour

underutilization.8In

2023,

the

global

jobs

gap

is

projected

to

standat

453

million

people

or

11.7per

cent,9more

thandouble

the

unemployment

count.

The

global

jobsgap

of

453

million

includes

both

the

191

millionunemployed

people

and

an

additional

262

million

whowant

employment

but

do

not

qualify

as

unemployed.Those

without

a

job

but

not

classified

as

unemployedinclude,

for

instance,

people

who

are

discouragedfrom

searching

and

those

currently

unable

to

take

upemployment

at

short

notice,

such

as

persons

with

careresponsibilities.Jobs

gap

indicator

points

tolargeemployment

deficits,

particularlyin

developing

countriesWhile

unemployment

numbers

provideimportant

information

on

the

extent

of

labourunderutilization,

especially

in

developingcountries,

a

novel

indicator

developed

by

the

ILO,thejobs

gap,

offers

a

more

comprehensive

measure

of

theunmet

demand

for

employment

around

the

world.

Itcaptures

all

persons

who

would

like

to

work

but

do

nothave

a

job.

The

jobs

gap

uses

the

same

data

sourcesas

unemployment

statistics

but

in

addition

utilizeslabour

force

survey

data

to

incorporate

all

jobseekersor

others

who

would

work

if

they

could.

As

such,

theThere

is

an

unequal

jobs

gap

globally.

In

2023,

low-income

countries

are

facing

the

largest

jobs

gap

rate

at21.5

per

cent,

while

the

rate

in

middle-income

countriesstands

slightly

above

11

per

cent.

High-incomecountries

register

the

lowest

rates,

at

8.2

per

cent.Overall,

while

only

a

few

countries,

mostly

high-income,experience

relatively

low

jobs

gap

rates,

the

rest

of

theworld

continues

to

face

persistent

employment

deficits.89The

ILO’s

jobs

gap

indicator

complements

the

existing

set

of

indicators

in

the

ILO

modelled

estimates

by

providing

combined

estimates

of

theunemployed,

potential

labour

force,

and

willing

non-jobseekers

(each

of

them

defined

inresolution

I

of

the

19th

ICLS).

Like

the

LU3

indicator,

thejobs

gap

includes

in

addition

to

the

unemployed

those

who

are

unavailable

jobseekers

and

available

non-jobseekers,

but

in

contrast

to

the

LU3indicator,

it

also

includes

those

who

fall

into

neither

of

the

previous

categories

but

do

want

employment

(willing

non-jobseekers).

SeeWESO

Trends2023

for

more

details

on

the

indicator

and

its

differences

with

respect

to

unemployment.The

numerator

of

this

rate

comprises

all

those

without

a

job

and

wanting

one,

while

the

denominator

consists

of

all

those

without

a

job

andwanting

one

plus

total

employment.ILO

Monitor

on

the

world

of

work.

Eleventh

edition5Figure

3.

Jobs

gap

rate,

2023,

by

gender

and

country

income

group

(percentage)2521.52014.51511.511.29.8108.250FemaleMaleLowincomeLower-middleincomeUpper-middleincomeHighincomeSource:

ILOSTAT

database,

ILO

modelled

estimates.Figure

4.

Jobs

gap

rate,

by

country

income

group,

2005–23

(percentage)25201510502005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023Low

income

Lower-middle

income

Upper-middle

income

High

incomeSource:

ILOSTAT

database,

ILO

modelled

estimates.These

are

particularly

acute

for

women,

who

facea

jobs

gap

rate

of

14.5

per

cent,

compared

to

9.8

percent

for

men.

Low-income

countries

exhibit

thegreatest

gender

disparity

in

employment

deficits,

withwomen

facing

a

jobs

gap

rate

that

is

9

percentagepoints

higher

than

that

of

men.While

the

global

jobs

gap

rateis

projected

todecline

in

2023

by

0.2

percentage

points

to

11.7percent,

there

are

considerable

variations

betweencountry

income

groups

(figure

4).

Low-incomecountries

are

projected

to

see

little

change

in

2023;this

is

also

the

only

income

group

that

has

seen

along-term

rise

in

the

jobs

gap

rate

from

19.1

per

centin

2005

to21.5

per

cent

in

2023.

The

persistence

ofILO

Monitor

on

the

world

of

work.

Eleventh

edition6Figure

5.

Jobs

gaprateindeveloping

countries,

2023,

by

country

risk

of

debt

distress(percentage)35302520151050LowModerateHighFemaleIn

debt

distressTotalNote:

The

list

of

developing

(mostly

low-income)

countries

covered

in

this

sample

(as

of

28

February

2023)

can

be

found

at:

https://www./external/pubs/ft/dsa/dsalist.pdf,

excluding

Dominica,

Federated

States

of

Micronesia,

Grenada,

Kiribati,

Marshall

Islands

andTuvalu,

which

are

not

available

in

ILO

modelled

estimates

of

the

jobs

gap

rate.Sources:

Jobs

gap

rate

(percentage)

–

ILOSTAT

database,

ILO

modelled

estimates;

country

risk

of

debt

distress

–IMF

Debt

SustainabilityAnalysis

–

Low-Income

Countries.the

jobs

gap

in

these

poorest

countries

reflects

thefact

that,

for

various

reasons,

there

are

not

enoughnew

employment

opportunities

for

rapidly

growing,youthful

populations.

Lower-middle-income

countriesare

projected

to

see

almost

no

change

in

2023

buthave

experienced

a

sizeable

long-term

decline.

Upper-middle-income

countries

are

projected

to

see

thelargest

decrease

(0.5

percentage

points)

in

2023.

High-income

countries

have

seen

the

largest

long-termimprovement

in

the

jobs

gap

rate

with

a

4

percentagepoint

decline

since

the

aftermath

of

the

2008–09global

financial

crisis

and

a

drop

of

0.3

percentagepoints

in

2023

alone.constrained

policy

space,

which

will

hinder

furtherpolicy

responses

in

the

face

of

ongoing

crisesand

new

shocks.

In

the

low-income

countries

thatare

classified

as

in

debt

distress,10

the

jobs

gap

issignificantly

higher,

estimated

to

reach

25.7

per

centin

2023,

compared

with

11.0

per

cent

in

developingcountries

at

low

risk

of

debt

distress

(figure

5).

Thejobs

gap

rate

for

women

in

these

debt-distressedcountries

is

expected

to

reach

almost

31

per

cent

in2023,

reflecting

a

gender

disparity

that

is

evident

inall

countries

as

noted

above.

The

correlation

betweendebt

distress

and

the

jobs

gap

rate

points

to

thecritical

importance

of

international

financial

supportfor

debt-distressed

countries

in

promoting

both

aneconomic

and

a

job

recovery.Debt-distressed

countries

face

the

biggestlabour

market

challenges

andhave

much

more10

For

classification,

see

the

IMF’s

“Debt

Sustainability

Analysis

–

Low-Income

Countries”.ILO

Monitor

on

the

world

of

work.

Eleventh

edition7Box

1.Exacerbated

faces

of

the

polycrisisWhile

the

risk

of

polycrisis

is

global

in

nature

andscope,

developing

countries

face

even

more

complexand

cascading

crises,

which

interact

with

broaderglobal

challenges

to

further

exacerbate

labour

marketimpacts.

These

range

from

natural

disasters

andconflicts

to

domestic

political

and

economic

shocks,which

have

come

on

top

of

the

effects

of

the

COVID-19pandemic

and

the

cost-of-living

crisis,

along

withthe

effects

of

climate

change.

There

is

considerablediversity

in

the

accumulated

impacts

of

multiplecrises,

including

the

effects

of

economic

shocks(Sri

Lanka)

and

natural

disasters

(Türkiye

and

SyrianArab

Republic).

In

addition

to

precipitating

the

surgein

inflation

and

disruption

to

supply

chains

starting

in2022,

the

war

in

Ukraine

continues

to

impact

its

ownlabour

market

(and

neighbouring

countries

throughflows

of

refugees).working

hours,

and

in

some

cases,

wages.14

Anotherkey

concern

is

the

effects

on

women

in

the

Sri

Lankanlabour

market.

Already

starting

from

a

low

level,women’s

labour

force

participation

fell

from

34.5

percent

in

2019

to

32.1per

cent

in

2022.

Due

to

theslow

process

of

debt

restructuring,

macroeconomicstabilization

and

effects

of

reforms,

the

recovery

willbe

slow,

implying

that

the

negative

effects

on

theSri

Lankan

labour

market

will

continue

with

a

lag

asevident

in

the

aftermath

of

previous

economic

andfinancial

crises.Labour

market

impacts

in

Türkiye

and

Syrian

ArabRepublic

after

a

devastating

natural

disaster.

On6

February

2023,

the

south-eastern

provinces

ofTürkiye

were

hit

by

more

than

one

major

earthquake,which

killed

around

50,000

people

and

injuredapproximately107,000.15

Almost

4

million

workerswere

living

in

the

affected

region,

largely

employed

inagriculture,

manufacturing,

trade

and

other,

mostlylow

value-added,

services.

Through

the

impact

onbuildings

and

infrastructure,

such

a

natural

disasterhad

an

immediate

effect

on

the

economy

and

labourmarket.

Due

to

the

loss

of

around

220,000

workplaces,the

ILO

estimates

that

the

earthquake

resulted

in

adecline

of

16

per

cent

in

hours

worked,

equivalent

tomore

than

657,000

full-time

jobs.

The

ILO

estimatesthat,

overall,

the

earthquake

has

reduced

take-homelabour

income

in

Türkiye

by

more

than

2,859

millionTurkish

lira

(around

US$150

million)

per

month.Sri

Lanka

inan

economic

crisis.

On

top

of

long-running

macroeconomic

imbalances

and

structuralweaknesses,

Sri

Lanka

has

been

hit

by

a

series

ofcrises,

starting

with

the

Easter

bombings

in

2019and

followed

by

the

COVID-19pandemic,

which

hitthe

economy

and

labour

market

hard,

especially

thetourism

sector.

As

witnessed

in

other

developingcountries,

women,

youth

and

MSMEs,

particularlythose

operating

in

the

informal

economy,

were

badlyaffected

by

lockdown

measures.11

Output

contractedslightly

already

in

2019before

declining

by

4.6

per

centin

2020

duri