JPMorgan Econ FI-China July exports largely in line with expectations,but im1887-此为英文文档

r23May23Jun23Jul23

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08August2023

China

Julyexportslargelyinlinewithexpectations,but

importsdisappointed

•China’smerchandizeexportsfell2.3%m/msainJuly,modestlybelowexpectations.ThiswasinlinewiththesoftreadingsinJulymanufacturingPMIs.Thesoftnesswasbroad-basedacrossmajormarketsandproducts,exceptautoexports,whichcontinuedtoriseby4.2%m/msa.

•BigmissinJulyimportsdata:headlineimportsfell5.8%m/msainJuly,withbroadweaknessacrossmajortradingpartners.Crudeoilimportsvolumefell12.3%m/msainJulyamidrisingoilprices.Importsofmajorindustrialmetalsweremixed,risingforcopperandsteelproductsbutfallingforironore,pointingatunevendevelopmentindomesticindustrialandinvestmentactivities.

•Weexpectexportswilldeclinebyabout5%thisyearandnetexportswilldragGDPgrowthdownby0.3%pt.ThereareencouragingdevelopmentssuchasupwardrevisionintheUSeconomicoutlookandevidenceofbottomingupofthetechcycle.Nonetheless,traderemainsanuncertainfactorforChina;especiallythelatestBOPdatasuggestsanacceleratedpaceofglobalsupplychainrelocationoutofChina.

EmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearch

GraceNg

(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

HaibinZhu

(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe

(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan

(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

China’stradeactivitycontinuedtoslidedown.Merchandiseexports(inUS$

terms)fell14.5%over-year-agoinJuly(J.P.Morgan:-13.8%;consensus:-13.2%),

followingthedeclineof12.4%oyainJune.Insequentialterms,weestimate

exportsfell2.3%m/msainJuly,thefourthconsecutivemonthofsequential

decline.Inseasonallyadjustedterms,theJulyexportsvaluehascomedowntothe

leveltwoyearsago.

Meanwhile,importscameinsignificantlybelowexpectations,falling12.4%oya

inJuly(J.P.Morgan:-6.1%oya;consensus:-5.6%),followingthedeclineof6.8%

oyainJune.Weestimatethat,insequentialterms,importsfell5.8%m/msainJuly,

followingthedeclineof1.5%m/msainJune.Asaresult,thetradesurpluscame

inatUS$80.6billioninJuly(J.P.Morgan:$71.0bn;consensus:$70.0bn),

comparedto$70.6billioninJune.Forthefirstsevenmonthsoftheyear,thetrade

surplusamountedto$512.3billion(vs$472.7billioninthesameperiodlastyear).

Merchandisetrade

US$billionandpercentchange

2022Ap

Exports

$billion

%oya

%m/m,sa

Imports

$billion

%oya

%m/m,sa

Tradebalance$billion

3585.1

6.8

2715.8

1.1

869.2

295.4

8.7

-6.4

205.2

-7.9

-4.6

90.2

283.5

-7.2

-8.3

217.7

-4.5

3.4

65.8

285.3

-12.4

-0.9

214.7

-6.8

-1.5

70.6

281.8-14.5-2.3

201.2-12.4-5.8

80.6

Source:CustomsStatistics,J.P.Morganforecasts

Seepage10foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

2

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

China

08August2023

Exportactivityhasslowedsince2Q

Theslowdowninexportactivityhascontributedtothelossofgrowthmomentumsince2Q.

Lookingback,followingsignificantslowingin2H22,China’sexportactivityrebounded

notablyin1Q23,reflectingnear-termresilienceinglobaldemand,aswellassupply-chain

normalizationamideconomicreopeninginChina.Nonetheless,goingthrough2Q,thepost-

reopeningreboundinexportactivityappearstobefading,andtheexportsectorseemstobe

losingmomentumagain.ThesequentialdeclineinJulyexportsisthefourthmonthinarow,

andthemomentumfurthersoftenedto-36.0%3m/3msaar(vs.-17.6%3m/3msaarinJune).

TheweaknessinJulyexportactivityisnotsurprisingly.ItisconsistentwiththePMIreadings:

newexportorderscomponentsinJulymanufacturingPMIreadingwas46.3(NBS)and46.1

(Caixin),pointingatcontinuousweaknessinexternaldemand.

Furtherdetailsshowthatexportactivityisbroadlyweakacrossexportdestinationsand

products.Inthebreakdownbymajormarket,exportstotheUSfell2.1%m/msainJuly(vs.

-5.0%m/msainJune),whileexportstotheEUfell5.6%m/msa(vs.-2.3%m/msainJune).

Meanwhile,exportstoEMAsiaalsofell3.4%m/msa(vs.+3.2%m/msainJune),andexports

toRussia,AfricaandLatinAmerica(theoffsettingfactorin1H)fell1.5%,3.0%and4.5%m/

msa,respectively,inJuly.

Inthebreakdownbyproduct,exportsoflower-endconsumergoods(includinggarments,

clothing,footwearandtoys)fell5.6%m/msainJuly,addingtothedeclineof2.3%m/msa

inJune.Exportsofmechanicalandelectricalproductsfell2.6%m/msainJuly,addingtothe

declineof1.2%m/msainJune.Inaddition,exportsofhigh-techproductsfell3.1%m/msa

inJuly,afterasmallpickupof0.4%m/msainJune.Anotableexceptionwasautoexports,

whichgained4.2%m/msainJuly,thoughinyoyterms,autoexportgrowthmoderatedfrom

109.9%inJuneto83.3%oyainJulyonbaseeffect.

ImportsweakenednotablyinJuly

Ontheimportsfront,nominalimportsfell5.8%m/msainJuly,followingadeclineof1.5%

m/msainJune.Thedeclineinimportswasbroad-based:in%m/msaterms,-9.8%fromthe

US,-4.8%fromtheEU,-6.6%fromEMAsia,-0.7%fromBrazil,-8.2%fromAustralia,and

-13.8%fromRussia.

Regardingenergycommodityimports,involumeterms,importsofcrudeoilfell12.3%m/m

sainJuly(vs.0.0%m/msainJune),whilecoalimportsfell5.4%m/msa(vs.+2.8%m/msa

inJune).Thesharpdeclineincrudeoilimportvolumemayhavebeendrivenbytheoilprice

increaseinJuly.Meanwhile,regardingimportsofkeyindustrialmetals,whichtendtotrack

China’sdomesticinvestmentactivity,importvolumesofironorefell2.7%m/msainJuly(vs.

+2.4%m/msainJune).Incontrast,copperimportsrose2.7%m/msainJuly(vs.-0.8%m/m

sainJune)andimportsofsteelproductsrose10.5%m/msainJuly(vs.-0.5%m/msainJune).

Themixedreadingsseemtopointatunevendevelopmentsindomesticindustrialand

investmentactivity,withoutperformancefrommanufacturingandinfrastructurebutunder-

performancefromrealestateinvestment.

3

NEV

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08August2023

China:merchandiseexportsandimports

US$billion,sa,3mma

330

Exports

300

270

240

210

Imports

180

150

120

201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

TaiwantechordersandChinatechexports

Taiwantech

exportorders

Chinatech

exports

Index,4Q19=100,sa

170

150

130

110

90

70

2020202120222023

Source:ChinaCustoms,TaiwanMoEA,J.P.Morgan

Chinaautomobileexports

'000units

400

Automobile

300

200

100

0

1920212223

Source:CAAM,J.P.Morgan.

4

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

andLatinAmerica

G3

ASEAN

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

China

08August2023

Externaldemanduncertaintylingersongoinginto2H

Weexpectthattheweaknessinexternaldemandwillcontinuein2H,China’sexportswill

declinebyaround5%forthefullyearof2023(vs.+30%in2021and+7%in2022)andnet

exportswilldragGDPgrowthdownby0.3%pts(vs.+1.7%ptscontributionin2021and

+0.5%ptscontributionin2022).Therearesomeencouragingdevelopmentsveryrecently,

e.g.upwardrevisionintheUSeconomythatcanavoidarecession(seelink)andevidence

thatthetechcyclemightbebottomingout.Nonetheless,itremainsamajoruncertaintyfor

China,notonlyintheneartermbutalsoassociatedwiththeconcernaboutacceleratedglobal

supplychainrelocation.TheBOPreportreleasedbySAFEshowsthatFDIinflowin2Q23

felltothelowestlevelinthepast26years.Hence,thenear-termpressureonexportsmay

becomestructuralinthecomingyears,whichimpliesthatitisimportanttofindeffective

measurestoboostdomesticdemandgoingforward.

Exportsdecomposition:pricevs.volume

%oya

Volume

Feb’20:-15%

PriceFeb’21:145%

17181920212223

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

China'sexportsbydestination

Index,sa,2019=100

Russia,Africa

220

190

160

130

100

70

40

Jan20Jul20Jan21Jul21Jan22Jul22Jan23Jul23

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan.Note:In2019,China'sexportstoG3accountedfor

39.6%ofitstotalexports,ASEAN14.4%,andRussia+Africa+LatinAmerica12.6%.

5

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08August2023

China'sshareinglobalexports

%,sa

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

05060708091011121314151617181920212223

Source:WTO,J.P.Morgan

FurtherdetailsoftheJulytradereport

•Inmoredetailsoftheexportfigures,exportsoflower-endconsumergoods(includinggarments,clothing,footwearandtoys)fell5.6%m/msainJuly,addingtothedeclineof2.3%m/msainJune.Exportsofmechanicalandelectricalproductsfell2.6%m/msainJuly,addingtothedeclineof1.2%m/msainJune.Besides,exportsofhigh-techproductsdropped3.1%m/msainJuly,followingthemarginalgainof0.4%m/msainJune.

•RegardingexportstothemajorDMmarkets,exportstotheUSfell2.1%m/msainJuly,addingtothedeclineof5.0%m/msainJune,exportstotheEUfell5.6%m/msa(vs-2.3%m/msainJune),whileexportstoJapanstayedflatin%m/msaterms(vs+0.3%m/msainJune).ExportstoEMAsiafell3.4%m/msa(vs+3.2%m/msainJune).Inaddition,China’sexportstoRussiafell1.5%m/msainJuly(vs+0.5%m/msainJune),exportstoLatamdropped4.5%m/msaterms(vs0%m/msainJune),andexportstoAfricafell3.0%m/msa(vs-8.4%m/msainJune).

•Regardingthebroadimportcategories,processimports,whichaccountedfor16.9%oftotalimportsin2022,fell2.7%m/msainJuly(vs-0.8%m/msaininJune).Meanwhile,ordinaryimports(whichaccountedfor63.7%oftotalimportsin2022)fell5.0%m/msainJuly(vs-4.1%m/msainJune).

•Regardingcommodityimports(involumeterms),intheenergysector,crudeoilimportsdropped12.3%m/msainJuly(vs0%m/msainJune);refinedoilimportsrose9.4%m/msa(vs+9.3%m/msainJune),whilecoalimportsfell5.4%m/msa(vs+2.8%m/msainJune).Besides,regardingimportvolumesofmajorindustrialmetals,ironoreimportsfell2.7%m/msainJuly(vs+2.4%m/msainJune),whilecopperimportsrose2.7%m/msa(vs-0.8%m/msainJune).

•Byregion,importsfromtheUSdropped9.8%m/msainJuly(vs+0.2%m/msainJune),andimportsfromtheEUfell4.8%m/msa(vs+1.5%m/msainJune).ImportsfromJapanfell0.7%m/msainJuly(vs+0.9%m/msainJune),whileimportsfromEMAsiadropped6.6%m/msa(vs+8.0%m/msainJune).Regardingthemajorcommodityproducers,importsfromBrazilfell0.7%m/msainJuly(vs-7.8%m/msainJune),whileimportsfromAustraliafell8.2%m/msa(vs-2.9%m/msainJune).Inaddition,importsfromRussiadropped13.8%m/msainJuly(vs+3.5%m/msainJune).

6

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

China

08August2023

Merchandiseexportsbreakdown

Percentchange

2022Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23

MainexportdestinationsEU

%oya

%m/m,sa

US

%oya

%m/m,sa

Japan

%oya

%m/m,sa

EMAsia

%oya

%m/m,sa

8.3

0.9

4.3

14.6

3.9-6.7

-6.5-6.6

11.5-2.1

1.7-12.2

7.5-12.3

10.4-4.1

-5.9-2.5

-7.0-6.3

-18.2-11.2

-13.3-6.1

-18.8-12.0

-14.6-11.3

-2.1-6.5

-13.9-4.8

-12.9-2.3

-23.7-5.0

-15.60.3

-18.93.2

-16.1-2.3

-9.0-1.2

-16.80.4

-20.6-5.6

-23.1-2.1

-18.40.0

-20.9-3.4

-19.5-5.6

-11.9-2.6

-18.1-3.1

Mainexportproductcategories

Low-endconsumergoods%oya

%m/m,sa

2.9

Mechanicalandelectrical%oya

%m/m,sa

products

3.7

-2.8

Hi-tech

products

%oya

%m/m,sa

Source:ChinaCustoms;J.P.Morgan

Merchandiseimportsbycountry

Percentchange

2022

Apr23

May23

Jun23

Jul23

EU

%oya

-7.9

-0.1

-0.9

-0.7

-3.0

%m/m,sa

-0.2

-0.9

1.5

-4.8

US

%oya

-1.0

-3.1

-9.9

-4.1

-11.2

%m/m,sa

-3.5

1.2

0.2

-9.8

Japan

%oya

-10.3

-15.8

-13.7

-14.3

-14.7

%m/m,sa

-8.2

0.7

0.9

-0.7

EMAsia

%oya

-1.2

-17.0

-14.1

-9.9

-14.9

%m/m,sa

-2.8

-0.7

8.0

-6.6

Brazil

%oya

-5.3

-26.0

12.8

2.8

4.7

%m/m,sa

-8.9

16.3

-7.8

-0.7

Australia

%oya

3.5

22.3

5.4

6.2

-10.9

%m/m,sa

0.3

-1.5

-2.9

-8.2

Source:ChinaCustoms;J.P.Morgan

7

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08August2023

Majorcommodityimports(volume)

percentchange

2022Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23

CrudePetroleumOil

%oya

-0.9

-1.4

12.3

45.3

17.0

%m/m,sa

-16.5

17.3

0.0

-12.3

%m/m,nsa

-18.9

21.3

1.2

-16.1

RefinedPetroleumProducts

%oya

-3.0

195.7

126.7

168.7

177.1

%m/m,sa

13.8

-2.7

9.3

9.4

%m/m,nsa

12.5

4.0

-3.3

2.3

IronOre

%oya

-1.6

5.1

4.0

7.4

2.4

%m/m,sa

-29

-02

2.4

-27

%m/m,nsa

-9.8

6.3

-0.7

-2.1

Copper

%oya

6.2

-12.5

-4.6

-16.4

-2.7

%m/m,sa

10.5

7.1

-0.8

2.7

%m/m,nsa

-0.2

9.0

1.3

0.3

Aluminum

%oya

-25.6

27.1

1.7

12.7

-

%m/m,sa

14.9

-16.2

10.3

-

%m/m,nsa

11.1

-14.0

10.2

-

Coal

%oya

-9.4

72.7

92.6

110.0

66.9

%m/m,sa

0.7

1.3

2.8

-54

%m/m,nsa

-1.2

-2.7

0.7

-1.5

SteelProducts

%oya

-26.0

-38.8

-21.7

-22.6

-14.1

%m/m,sa

-5.9

3.0

-0.5

10.5

%m/m,nsa

-14.2

7.9

-3.1

10.8

Source:Customsstatistics,J.P.Morgan

Chinamerchandisetradegrowth

%oya

60

30

0

-30

ExportsImports

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

8

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

China

08August2023

Chinamerchandisetradegrowth-sequentialtrend

%3m/3msaar

ExportsImports

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

China:merchandisetradebalance

sansa

US$billion

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

China:Majorexportcategories

%3m/3msaar

Hitech

products

125100755025

Lowend

products

0

-25

-50

-75

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ChinaCustoms;J.P.Morgan

9

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08August2023

CNYREERandmerchandiseexports

%oya,3mmaRealeffective

%oya,leadingby6

months,reversescale

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

MerchandiseexchangerateAppreciation

exports

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1011121314151617181920212223

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

Chinacommodityimportvolume

Crudeandrefinedoil

Index,2010=100,sa,3mma

260

Ironore

210

160

110

Copper

60

1011121314151617181920212223

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustoms,J.P.Morgan

BilateraltradewiththeUS

Startoftradewar

%oya,3mma

80

ImportfromUS

60

ExporttoUS

40

20

0

-20

-40

201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

10

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

China

08August2023

Disclosures

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withrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheResearchAnalystcoversinthisresearch)that:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflecttheResearchAnalyst’spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuers;and(2)nopartofanyoftheResearchAnalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbytheResearchAnalyst(s)inthisreport.ForallKorea-basedResearchAnalystslistedonthefrontcover,ifapplicable,theyalsocertify,asperKOFIArequirements,thattheResearchAnalyst’sanalysiswasmadeingoodfaithandthattheviewsreflecttheResearchAnalyst’sownopinion,withoutundueinfluenceorintervention.AllauthorsnamedwithinthisreportareResearchAnalystswhoproduceindependentresearchunlessotherwisespecified.InEurope,SectorSpecialists(SalesandTrading)maybeshownonthisreportascontactsbutarenotauthorsofthereportorpartoftheResearchDepartment.

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ExplanationofEmergingMarketsSovereignResearchRatingsSystemandValuation&Methodology:

RatingsSystem:J.P.MorganusesthefollowingissuerportfolioweightingsforEmergingMarketsSovereignResearch:Overweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtooutperformtherelevantindex,sector,orbenchmarkcreditreturns);Marketweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtoperforminlinewiththerelevantindex,sector,orbenchmarkcreditreturns);andUnderweight(overthenextthreemonths,therecommendedriskpositionisexpectedtounderperformtherelevantindex,sector,orbenchmarkcreditreturns).NRisNotRated.Inthiscase,J.P.Morganhasremovedtheratingforthissecuritybecauseofeitherlegal,regulatoryorpolicyreasonsorbecauseoflackofasufficientfundamentalbasis.Thepreviousratingnolongershouldbereliedupon.AnNRdesignationisnotarecommendationorarating.NCisNotCovered.AnNCdesignationisnotaratingorarecommendation.Recommendationswillbeattheissuerlevel,andanissuerrecommendationappliestoalloftheindex-eligiblebondsatthesamelevelfortheissuer.Whenwechangetheissuer-levelrating,wearechangingtheratingforalloftheissuescovered,unlessotherwisespecified.Ratingsforquasi-sovereignissuersintheEMBIGmaydifferfromtheratingsprovidedinEMcorporatecoverage.

Valuation&Methodology:ForJ.P.Morgan'sEmergingMarketsSovereignResearch,weassignaratingtoeachsovereignissuer(Overweight,MarketweightorUnderweight)basedonourviewofwhetherthecombinationoftheissuer’sfundamentals,markettechnicals,andtherelativevalueofitssecuritieswillcauseittooutperform,performinlinewith,orunderperformthecreditreturnsoftheEMBIGDindexoverthenextthreemonths.Ourviewofanissuer’sfundamentalsincludesouropinionofwhethertheissuerisbecomingmoreorlessabletoserviceitsdebtobligationswhentheybecomedueandpayable,aswellaswhetheritswillingnesstoservicedebtobligationsisincreasingordecreasing.

J.P.MorganEmergingMarketsSovereignResearchRatingsDistribution,asofJuly8,2023

OverweightMarketweightUnderweight

(buy)(hold)(sell)

GlobalSovereignResearchUniverse*IBclients**

5%

67%

83%

45%

12%

75%

*Pleasenotethatthepercentagesmaynotaddto100%becauseofrounding.

**Percentageofsubjectissuerswithineachofthe"Overweight,"Marketweight"and"Underweight"categoriesforwhichJ.P.Morgan

hasprovidedinvestmentbankingserviceswithintheprevious12months.

ForpurposesofFINRAratingsdistributionrulesonly,ourOverweightratingfallsintoabuyratingcategory;ourMarketweightrating

fallsintoaholdratingcategory;andourUnderweightratingfallsintoasellratingcategory.TheEmergingMarketsSovereign

ResearchRatingDistributionisattheissuerlevel.IssuerswithanNRoranNCdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.This

informationiscurrentasoftheendofthemostrecentcalendarquarter.

Analysts'Compensation:Theresearchanalystsresponsibleforthepreparationofthisreportreceivecompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingthequalityandaccuracyofresearch,clientfeedback,competitivefactors,andoverallfirmrevenues.

Registrationofnon-USAnalysts:Unlessotherwisenoted,thenon-USanalystslistedonthefrontofthisreportareemployeesofnon-USaffiliatesofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC,maynotberegisteredasresearchanalystsunderFINRArules,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC,andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241or2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithcoveredcompanies,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

11

GraceNg(852)2800-7002

grace.h.ng@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039

haibin.zhu@

TingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiYan(852)2800-7673

ji.yan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08August2023

OtherDisclosures

J.P.MorganisamarketingnameforinvestmentbankingbusinessesofJPMorganChase&Co.anditssubsidiariesandaffiliatesworldwide.UKMIFIDFICCresearchunbundlingexemption:UKclientsshouldrefertoUKMIFIDResearchUnbundlingexemptionfordetailsofJPMorgan’simplementationoftheFICCresearchexemptionandguidanceonrelevantFICCresearchcategorisation.

AnylongformnomenclatureforreferencestoChina;HongKong;Taiwan;andMacauwithinthisresearchmaterialareMainlandChina;HongKongSAR(China);Taiwan(China);andMacauSAR(China).

J.P.MorganResearchmay,fromtimetotime,writeonissuersorsecuritiestargetedbyeconomicorfinancialsanctionsimposedoradministeredbythegovernmentalauthoritiesoftheU.S.,EU,UKorotherrelevantjurisdictions(SanctionedSecurities).Nothinginthisreportisintendedtobereadorconstruedasencouraging,facilitating,promotingorotherwiseapprovinginvestmentordealinginsuchSanctionedSecurities.Clientsshouldbeawareoftheirownlegalandcomplianceobligationswhenmakinginvestmentdecisions.

Anydigitalorcryptoassetsdiscussedinthisresearchreportaresubjecttoarapidlychangingregulatorylandscape.Forrelevantregulatoryadvisoriesoncryptoassets,includingbitcoinandether,pleasesee/disclosures/cryptoasset-disclosure.Theauthor(s)ofthisresearchreportmaynotbelicensedtocarryonregulatedactivitiesinyourjurisdictionand,ifnotlicensed,donotholdthemselvesoutasbeingabletodoso.

Exchange-TradedFunds(ETFs):J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC(“JPMS”)actsasauthorizedparticipantforsubstantiallyallU.S.-listedETFs.TotheextentthatanyETFsarementionedinthisreport,JPMSmayearncommissionsandtransaction-basedcompensationinconnectionwiththedistributionofthoseETFsharesandmayearnfeesforperformingothertrade-relatedservices,suchassecuritieslendingtoshortsellersoftheETFshares.JPMSmayalsoperformservicesfortheETFsthemselves,includingactingasabrokerordealertotheETFs.Inaddition,affiliatesofJPMSmayperformservicesfortheETFs,includingtrust,custodial,administration,lending,indexcalculationand/ormaintenanceandotherservices.

OptionsandFuturesrelatedresearch:Iftheinformationcontainedhereinregardsoptions-orfutures-relatedresearch,suchinformationisavailableonlytopersonswhohavereceivedtheproperoptionsorfuturesriskdisclosuredocuments.PleasecontactyourJ.P.MorganRepresentativeorvisit/components/docs/riskstoc.pdfforacopyoftheOptionClearingCorporation'sCharacteristicsandRisksofStandardizedOptionsor/sites/default/files/Security_Futures_Risk_Disclosure_Statement_2018.pdfforacopyoftheSecurityFuturesRiskDisclosureStatement.

ChangestoInterbankOfferedRates(IBORs)andotherbenchmarkrates:Certaininterestratebenchmarksare,ormayinthefuturebecome,subjecttoongoinginternational,nationalandotherregulatoryguidance,reformandproposalsforreform.Formoreinformation,pleaseconsult:/global/disclosures/interbank_offered_rates

PrivateBankClients:WhereyouarereceivingresearchasaclientoftheprivatebankingbusinessesofferedbyJPMorganCha