世界银行-恢复增长：在财政约束下重建充满活力的新冠疫情后世纪经济体（英）-2021.10-60正式版

OCTOBER2021|SEMIANNUALREPORTOFLATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGIONRecoveringGrowthRebuildingDynamicPost-COVID-19EconomiesAmidFiscalConstraints每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。2RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTS©2021InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:Somerightsreserved123424232221ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RightsandPermissionsThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:///licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2021.“RecoveringGrowth:RebuildingDynamicPost‐COVID-19EconomiesAmidFiscalConstraints”LACSemiannualReport(October),WorldBank,Washington,DC.Doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1806-6.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ResponsibilityfortheviewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationrestssolelywiththeauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-partycontent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtothePublishingandKnowledgeDivision,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@.ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1806-6DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1806-6Coverphoto:Illustrationbasedonaphotographby:IakovFilimonov.Coverdesign:AlejandroEspinosa(Sonideas).RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSAcknowledgementsThisreportisaproductoftheChiefEconomistOfficeforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanattheWorldBank.ThepreparationofthereportwasledbyWilliamMaloney(ChiefEconomist)andDanielRiera-Crich-ton(ResearchEconomist)withcontributionsfromGuillermoBeylis(Economist),VirgilioGaldo(ResearchAnalyst),ElenaIanchovichina(DeputyChiefEconomist),MariaMartaFerreyra(SeniorEconomist),AyanQu(ResearchAnalyst),LuisDiegoRojasAlvarado(Consultant),JoanaSilva(SeniorEconomist),RuchetaSingh(ResearchAnalyst)andGuillermoVuletin(SeniorEconomist)intheChiefEconomistOffice(LCRCE).Substantivecontributionsweremadefromacrosstheregionalteams:HumanDevelopment:LuisBenveniste(RegionalDirector,HLCDR),Health:MicheleGragnolati(PracticeManager,HLCHN),GianlucaCafagna(HealthSpecialist,HLCHN),CristianAHerrera(SeniorHealthSpe-cialist,HLCHN),Education:EmanuelaDiGropello(PracticeManager,HLCED),JuanDiegoAlonso(SeniorEconomist,HLCED),IndianaTaylor(SeniorProgramAssistant,HLCDR),SocialProtectionandJobs:WilliamWiseman(LeadEconomist,HLCSP),andHarryEdmundMoroz(Economist,HLCSP).InfrastructureandEnergy:FranzDrees-Gross(RegionalDirector,ILCDR),LuisAndres(SectorLeader,ILC-DR),DoyleGallegos(LeadDigitalDevelopmentSpecialist,IDD01),NicoleKlingen(PracticeManager,IDD01),NiccoloComini(DigitalDevelopmentSpecialist,IDD01),ꢀNicolasPeltier(PracticeManager,ILCT1),StephanieGil(PracticeManager,ILCE1),ClaudiaInesVasquezSuarez(SeniorEnergySpecialist,ILCE1),JaninaFranco(SeniorEnergySpecialist,ILCE1),JavierMoralesSarriera(Economist,ILCT1),FabianHinojosa(Transportspecialist,ILCT1),andLeonardoCanonRubiano(SeniorTransportspecialist,ILCT1).EquitableGrowth,FinanceandInstitutions:RobertR.Taliercio(RegionalDirector,ELCDR),Poverty:Xi-menadelCarpio(PracticeManager,ELCPV),HernanWinkler(SeniorEconomist,ELCPV),SergioOlivieri(SeniorEconomist,ELCPV),andDianaSanchezCastro(ResearchAnalyst,ELCPV).Procurement:MajedEl-Bayya(LeadProcurementSpecialist,EPSPF)andSerenaSaraDanielaCocciolo(Economist,EPSPF).Finance,CompetitivenessandInnovation:DenisMedvedev(PracticeManager,ETIFE),SaraBrolhatodeOliveira(Consultant,ETIFE),SantiagoReyesOrtiga(Extended-termConsultant,ETIFE),JoseErnestoLopezCordova(LeadEconomist,ETIFE),andXavierCirera(SeniorEconomist,ETIFE).Prospects:TemelTaskin(Economist,EPGDR),andFranzUlrichRuch(Economist,EPGDR).Country-specificmacroeconomicestimatesandwrite-upswereproducedbycountryeconomistsintheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice,underthecoordinationofJamesSampi(Econo-mist,ELCMU).ContributorsincludedSoniaAraujo,RafaelBarroso,ElenaBondarenko,LuigiButron,BlediCeliku,TamoyaChristie,FabianoColbano,BarbaraCunha,SimonDavies,AntonDobronogov,JozefDraa-isma,PaoloDudine,JulianFolgar,FernandoGiuliano,MarekHanusch,JohannesHerderschee,SantiagoHerrera,EvansJadotte,SantiagoJustel,WooriLee,RanLi,RohanLongmore,DavidCalMacWilliam,Edu-ardoOlaberria,RafaelOrnelas,AndresPinchao,RuslanPiontkivsky,AnjaliShahaniMoreno,JulioVelasco,KatiaVostroknutova,ChristianZambaglioneandGabrielZaourak,AlexanderHaider,andAndrewBurns(allELCMU).AdministrativesupportwasprovidedbyJacquelineLarrabure(ProgramAssistant,LCRCE).YaninaBudkin(SeniorExternalAffairsOfficer,LCREC),CarlosMolina(OnlineCommunicationsOfficer,LCREC),RuthId-alinaGonzalezLlamas(SeniorExternalAffairsOfficer,ECRLC),LeandroJuanHernandez(ExternalAffairsAssociate,ECRLC),GonzaloVillamizar(Consultant,LCRCE),andFranciscoSeminario(Consultant,LCREC)contributedoncommunicationandAlejandroEspinosa(Sonideas)ondesign.ThecutoffdateforthisreportwasSeptember23,2021.Acknowledgements3ContentsRECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSAcknowledgementsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀExecutiveSummaryꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ37CHAPTER1FromDevastationtoanAnemicRecoveryPath11TheOngoingChallengeofCOVID-19ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ13SlowProgressDefeatingCOVID-19ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ13DevastatingHumanCostsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ16Recovering,withoutTakingOffꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ18TheParadoxicalRecovery:AReturntoAnemicGrowthDespiteFavorableTailwindsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ20ChallengestoRecoveryꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ23NewCOVID-19Outbreaksꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ23InflationRisksꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ24FirmArrears,DebtOverhangandFinancialStabilityꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ26DisappearingFiscalSpaceꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ27CHAPTER2RebuildingaDynamic,InclusiveandGreenerEconomyinaConstrainedFiscalEnvironment30TheFiscalChallengetoGrowthandInequalityꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ31GrowthꢀNeutralRevenueMobilizationꢁꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ31TheGrowthCostsofTaxHikesarenotNecessarilyLargeintheDevelopingWorldꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ32GainsinSpendingEfficiencyꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ34RethinkingSpendingPrioritiesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ35A.StrengtheningtheHealthSystem-QuickWinstoImproveandExpandServicesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ35B.MakingBetterGradesinEducationEfficacyandEquityꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ36PrimaryandSecondarySchoolsinCrisisꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ37HigherEducation:TheParadoxofLAC’sGenerousbutIneffectiveHigherEducationalSpendingꢀ39C.RepurposingInnovationResourcesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ43D.PublicTransfersforEquity:ConvertingShort-TermStimulustoLongTermGrowthꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ454contentsRECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSE.SmartPublicInvestmentinInfrastructureꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ46WhatarePerformance-BasedContracts(PBC)?ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ49WhataretheBenefitsofthePBCs?ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ494G:AnAmbitiousTollRoadPPPProgramꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ50DigitalInfrastructure:Low-costInvestmentsinGrowth,ResilienceandInclusionꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ51F.PoweringaSustainableEnergyFutureꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ52MovingtheEnergyEfficiencyAgendaForwardꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ53Conclusion56Referencesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ57ListofFiguresFigure1.1:LACLeadstheWorldonCumulativeConfirmedCOVID-19Deathsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ13Figure1.2:COVID-19HitLAEspeciallyHardandRemainsaBarriertoRecoveryꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ13Figure1.3:ProgressonCOVID-19VariesbyCountrybutReflectsGainsinVaccinationꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ14Figure1.4:LACisAdvancingonVaccinations,butStillLagsOtherRegionsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ15Figure1.5:ProgressinVaccinationRatesVariesAcrosstheRegionꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ15Figure1.6:FromLowGrowthtotheWorstRecessionꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ16Figure1.7:EmploymentRemainsBelowPre-PandemicLevelsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ16Figure1.8:WithoutBrazil,PovertyIncreasedSharplyThroughouttheRegionꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ17Figure1.9:TheHumanDevelopmentIndexRecordedItsLargestDropꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ17Figure1.10:TheRegionSufferedLargeLossesinLearning-AdjustedYearsofSchoolingꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ18Figure1.11:GDPGrowthRatesHaveBeenRobustꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ18Figure1.12:MostCountriesHaveNotRegainedtheir2019LevelsofIncomeꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ19Figure1.13:MachineLearningEstimatesofBusinessSentimentfromQuarterlyEarningsCallsInvestorsAreShakingOffConcernsAboutProgressonCOVID-19ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ19Figure1.14:TailwindsinKeyExternalFactorsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ21Figure1.15:GivenFavorableTailwinds,LACShouldHaveGrownFasterin2021ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ21FigureB1:GrowthResponsetoExternalFactors(inpercentagepoints)ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ22Figures1.16:MuchoftheSlowdowninActivityWasDuetoVoluntarySelfDistancingꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ23Figure1.17:SteeperYieldCurveintheUSMayIndicateHigherInflationintheHorizonꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ24Figures1.18:InflationinLACisNudgingUpwardandisLargelyDemandDrivenꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ25Figure1.19:MuchofthePrivateSectorisinArrearsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ26Figure1.20:LAC’sDebtResolutionMechanismsNeedtoBeStreamlinedꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ26contents52727RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSFigure1.21:WidespreadOverallandPrimaryFiscalDeficitsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀFigure1.22:LargeFiscalEffortsContinuein2021ꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀFigure1.23:PublicDebtisontheRiseꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ28Figure1.24:AsDebtGrowsSovereignCreditRatingsSlideꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ28Figure1.25:SovereignSpreadsRemainedHighDespiteEconomicRecoveryꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ29Figure2.1:AdvancingGrowth,EquityandSustainabilityunderFiscalConstraintsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ31Figure2.2:LACTaxesareSubstantiallyLessthantheOECDꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ32Figure2.3:TheGrowthEffectsofRaisingtheVATVarybyCountryꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ32Figure2.4:HigherIncomeTaxesMayHaveNegativeGrowthConsequencesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ33Figure2.5:LatinAmericaTaxesPropertyLessthanComparableCountriesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ34Figure2.6:LACSuffersLargeWasteandInefficiencyinPublicExpenditureꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ35Figure2.7:15-Year-OldStudentsinLACare,onAverage,ThreeYearsBehindOECDStudentsinReading,Mathematics,andScienceꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ37Figure2.8:WideGapsinEducationOutcomesRevealRegressivePatternsofAccessandQualityꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ38Figure2.9:PublicSubsidiesforSCPStudentsareLowerthanforBachelor’sStudentsinLACCountriesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ41Figure2.10:InLAC,SCPGraduatesAttainBetterLaborMarketOutcomesthanDropoutsfromBachelor’sPrograms41Figure2.11:LACLagsinFirmManagementPracticesNecessarytoInnovateꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ44Figure2.12:SubjectiveFirmOpinionoftheQualityofScientificResearchInstitutionsandtheDegreeofCollaborationofFirmswithUniversitiesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ45Figure2.13:SocialTransfersHaveThreeTimestheImpactonOutputinLACasinAdvancedCountriesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ46Figure2.14:InfrastructureInvestmentisCorrelatedwithHigherGrowth,EqualityandCompetitivenessꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ47Figure2.15:PrivateSectorInvestmentHasNotOffsettheFallinPublicInfrastructureInvestmentꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ47Figure2.16:DigitalConnectednessVariesWidelyacrossLACꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ51Figure2.17:EnergySubsidiesareHighandRisewithOilPricesꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ52Figure2.18:LACLagsinReducingEnergyIntensityꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ53ListofBoxesBox1.1.MachineLearning:EarningsCallsTranscriptsOfferEarlyInformationonEconomicTrendsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ20Box1.2.AModelofGrowthExplainedbyExternalFactorsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ22Box2.1.Finland:BuildingaWorldClassEducationandResearchSystemꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ43Box2.2.ImprovingtheSustainabilityandEfficiencyofRoadExpenditures:Performance-BasedContractingꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ49Box2.3.NewStrategiesforAttractingForeignInvestment:the4Gand5GInfrastructurePPPSchemeinColombiaꢀꢀ50Box2.4.GreenHydrogenExportsfromLatinAmerica:aPathwayTowardsaGreen,Resilient,InclusiveEconomicRecoveryꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ54ListofTablesTable2.1:Highereducationspendinganddistributionofstudentsacrossfieldsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ39Table2.2:CostsavingsofdifferentcountriesunderPBCoverconventionalcontractsꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀꢀ496contentsExecutiveSummaryRECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSLatinAmericaisemergingfromtheCOVID-19crisis,buttherecoveryisweakerthanexpected,andthescarsontheeconomyandsocietywilltakeyearstofade.Theneedtorecoverdynamic,inclusive,andsustainablegrowthtoredressboththelegacyofthepandemicandlong-standingsocialneedshasneverbeenmoreacute.Inturn,despitetheemergenceofsomeindustrial“greenshoots”offeringnewavenuesforgrowth,addressinglong-unattendedagendasthatpreventtheregionfromtakingoffhasneverbeenmoreurgent.Inthisspirit,Chapter1ofthisreportlaysouttherecentsocialandmacroeconomicevolutionoftheregionandthenear-termchallengesitfacesemergingfromthepandemic.Chapter2thenexploresseveraloftheareaswherekeygrowth-advancingreformscouldbeundertakenintheconstrainedfiscalcontext,focusingespeciallyonspendingmoreefficientlyandreallocatingresourcestomoreproductiveuses.Thesocialcostsofthepandemichavebeendevastating.Povertyrates,excludingBrazil,measuredat5.5USD/dayrosefrom24to26.7percent,theirhighestincreaseindecades;studentslostbetweenoneandone-and-a-halfyearsofeducation;andthefallintheUNHumanDevelopmentIndexdwarfedthatduringthefinancialcrisis.Thegoodnewsisthatthevaccinationdrivehaspickedupsteamoverthelastsixmonthsand,whilestillfarfromwhereitneedstobe,COVID-19deathsarefallinginmostcountries.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean’s(LAC’s)economicrecoveryisstrongerthanpredictedearlierintheyear,butweakerthanfavorabletailwindswoulddictate.Forecastsof2021growthhavebeenup-gradedoverthesummerandregionalgrowthisexpectedtoreach6.3percentfor2021,almostrecoveringthe6.7percentlossesof2020.However,giventherobustrecoveriesintheirprincipaltradingpartners,lowglobalborrowingrates,andtheprospectofanothercommoditysupercycle,growthratesmightbeexpect-edtobe1.5percentagepointshigher.…Andseveralchallengesfacetherecovery:Recurrenceofthevirus.Anyrecurrenceoftheviruswillleadtodeclinesineconomicactivity,notonlybecauseofgovernmentmeasurestoenforcesocialdistancing,butalsobecausehalfofthedeclineinactivityisduetovoluntarydistancingduetofearofthedisease.Tighteningofgloballiquiditytotampdowninflation.Shouldglobalinflationpressuresnotprovetemporary,glob-alborrowingrateswillrise,depressingdemandandchallengingbudgetmanagement.Highlevelsofprivatesectordebtandlackofclarityonbankingsolidity.WorldBankPulseSurveyssuggestthatinmanycountries40-60percentoffirmsareinarrearsasaresultofpandemic-drivenfallsinrevenues.Thisoverhangwillinthebestcasedampeninvestment,andintheworstcasecreatezombiefirmsthatareeffec-tivelybankruptbutarestillinoperation.Tothedegreethatbankingsystemsareforbearingdebtpayments,thiscouldalsobecreatingade-transparentizationofthefinancialsector,wherethetruelevelofnon-per-formingloansinthesystemishardtodiscern.Governmentswillneedtostreamlinepresentlyunwieldlydebtresolutionmechanismsandmonitorsystemicsoundness.Risingbudgetdeficits.DeclininggovernmentrevenuesandextraordinaryeffortstoprotectfamiliesandfirmsduringtheCOVID-19pandemichaveledtohighdeficits,andincreaseddebt.Insomecases,thishasledtoratingsdowngradesandpotentiallyraisedborrowingcosts.Inallcases,thereisreducedroomforgovern-mentstoengageingrowthandequitypromotinginvestments.Risingpublicdebt:TheaveragepublicdebttoGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)ratiohasrisendramaticallyovertwoyearsby15pointsto75.38percent,leadingtoreducedabilitytoborrowabroadandcomplicatingfiscalmanagementgoingforward.executivesummAry7RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSTheCOVID-19crisiscameontopofanother“lostdecade”oflowgrowth,suggestingdeeperstruc-turalproblems.From2010totheoutbreakofthepandemic,LACgrewat2.2percentperyearwhiletheworldgrewat3.1percent.Theforecastsfor2022and2023aresimilarlylacklusterat2.8and2.6percent,respectively.Thelacklusterrecovery,togetherwiththelowgrowthratesofthepreviousdecadesuggeststructuralproblemsinternaltotheregionandpointtotheurgencyofaddressingthelistoflong-recognizedgrowth-impedinginternalshortfallsininfrastructure,education,energypolicy,firmcapabilities,andin-novation,whileconfrontingsomenewclimatechangechallenges.Thesituationisnotuniformlybleakacrosscountriesandindustriesandhistorically,greenshootsmayarisefromcrisestriggeringlarge-scaleeconomicrestructuring.Asanexample,whilehospitalityandpersonalserviceshavesufferedgreatly,accelerateddigitizationbroughtaboutbytheneedtosociallydistancecouldhelpboostsectorslikeinformationtechnol