2023年Q2天然气市场报告（英）

Gas

Market

Report,Q2-2023INTERNATIONAL

ENERGY

AGENCYThe

IEA

examines

the

full

spectrum

of

energyissues

including

oil,

gas

and

coal

supply

anddemand,

renewable

energy

technologies,electricity

markets,

energy

efficiency,

access

toenergy,

demand

side

management

and

muchmore.

Through

its

work,

the

IEA

advocatespolicies

that

willenhance

the

reliability,affordability

and

sustainability

of

energy

inits

31member

countries,

11

association

countries

andbeyond.IEA

member

countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech

RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicof

TürkiyeUnited

KingdomUnited

StatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEAGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyThispublicationandanymapincludedherein

arewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.IEA

association

countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptJapanKoreaIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew

ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak

RepublicSource:

IEA.International

Energy

AgencyWebsite:

AbstractGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023AbstractPressureontheEuropeanandglobalgasmarketshaseasedsincethebeginningof

2023duetofavourableweatherconditionsandtimelypolicyactions.

Bytheendof

Q12023EuropeanhubandAsianspot

liquefiednaturalgas(LNG)priceshadfallenbelowtheirsummer2021levels,albeit

remainingwellabovetheirhistoricaverages.

ThesteepdeclineinnaturalgasdemandreducedtheneedforstoragewithdrawalsinEuropeandtheUnitedStatesoverthe2022/23winter.Asaresult,storagesitesclosedtheheatingseason1

withinventorylevelsstandingwellabovetheirfive-yearaverage.

Thisis

expectedtoreduceinjectiondemandduringthesummerof

2023,

andpotentiallyeasemarketfundamentals.Thisnewissueof

thequarterly

Gas

Market

Report

providesanoverviewof

recent

gas

marketdevelopmentsduringthe2022/23heatingseason,withaforecastfor2023.Theimprovedoutlookforgasmarketsin2023isnoguaranteeagainstfuturevolatilityandshouldnot

beadistractionfrommeasurestomitigatepotentialrisks.Globalgassupplyis

set

toremaintight

in2023andtheglobalbalanceis

subjecttoanunusuallywiderangeof

uncertainties.

Theseincludeadverseweatherfactors,suchasadrysummeroracoldQ4,loweravailabilityof

LNG

andthepossibilityof

afurtherdeclineinRussianpipelinegasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnion.1

The

heating

season

(or

gas

winter)

in

the

markets

ofthe

Northern

Hemisphere

refers

to

the

periodbetween1Octoberand31March.PAGE|

2TableofcontentsGasMarketReport,Q2-2023Table

of

contentsExecutivesummary5Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

11…accountingfortwo-thirdsofimportsduringthe2022/23heatingseason26GlobalLNGdemandmoderatedinQ1

whileremainingstronginEurope27GasdemandincreasedinNorthAmericaduringthewinter,but

isexpectedtocontractin

202312TheUnitedStates

issetto

driveLNGsupplygrowthin202329Growthin

US

gasconsumptionduringthepastwinterwassustainedbypowergenerationand

heatingneedsduringcoldweatherinQ413Notfeelingtheheat:Gaspricesmoderatedsignificantlyduringthe2022/23winter30Gasconsumptionsawalimiteddeclinein

CentralandSouthAmericain2022,andis

expectedtostabilisein

202314Asianspot

LNGandTTFpricesareexpectedtoremainabovetheirhistoricaverages

in2023

31Declinesin

gas

demandin

ArgentinaandBrazilin

2022

were

almostbalancedbygrowthin

otherCentralandSouthAmericanmarkets

15Mildwinterand

lowgasdemanddepressedstoragewithdrawalsoverthe2022/23winterseason

32Gasuseforpowergenerationremainslow

in

Brazilin

Q12023onstronghydroavailabilityand

limitedelectricitydemandgrowth16Storagelevelsclosedthe2022/23heatingseasonwellabovetheirfive-yearaverage33Europeangasdemanddroppedbyarecord55

bcmduringthe2022/23heatingseason17IntheEuropeanUnionstorageinjectionsequal

tohalfoflastyear’swouldsufficetoreach90%

filllevelsbythestartofthe2023/24heatingseason34Mildweather,energysavingmeasuresandlowergas

usein

industryweighedon

gasdemand18Spotlight

on

e-methane35E-methane:Agasfitfornet

zero?36Asiangasdemandcameunderpressurein

2022;recoveryin2023isexpectedtobe

modest19Widespreaddeclinesin

demandin

Asiaduring2022are

settobefollowedbyan

unevenrecoveryin2023

21E-methaneischaracterisedbyacomplexvalue

chainwithsubstantialefficiencylosses

39USnaturalgasoutput

maintains

itsgrowth,drivenbyPermianoil-drivenproduction

22E-methane’shighproductioncostsrequirefurthertechnologicaldevelopment

and

policysupport40USnaturalgasproductionremainedclosetotherecord100bcf/dmarkduringQ12023

23Japan:

Afirstmover

inthee-methanespace41Japanhassetatargetfor

e-methaneto

meet90%

ofitscitygassupplyby205043USnaturalgasproductionkeepsgrowingin

2023,butat

aslowerpace24JapanisactivelydevelopinginternationalvaluechainsLNGbecameabaseloadsupplyforEurope…25fore-methane

44PAGE|

3GasMarketReport,Q2-2023TableofcontentsAnnex

45Summarytable46Regionalandcountrygroupings47Abbreviationsandacronyms

48Unitsof

measure48Acknowledgements,contributorsand

credits

49PAGE|

4ExecutivesummaryGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Executive

summaryThe

latest

estimates

indicate

that

global

gas

consumption

fellby

1.5%

in

2022

–

similar

to

the

drop

experienced

in

2020following

the

first

wave

of

Covid-19

lockdowns.

Thebulkofdemandreductionwas

concentratedinthekey

EuropeanandAsianimport

markets.Thesharpincreaseingaspricessupportedgas-to-coalswitchingdynamicsinthepowersectoranddepressedgasuseinenergy-intensiveindustries.Enhancedenergy

efficiencymeasuresandthecontinueddeploymentof

renewablesreducedgasdemandinastructuralmanner.A

gradualrebalancing

ofnaturalgasmarketsGlobal

gas

markets

moved

towards

a

gradual

rebalancing

overthe

2022/23

heating

season,

following

the

supply

shocksparked

by

Russia’s

invasion

of

Ukraine

in

February

2022.

Spotgaspricesacrossthekeynortheast

Asian,

NorthAmericanandEuropeanmarketsdroppedbycloseto70%betweenmid-Decemberandtheend

of

thefirstquarterof

2023,

whilestoragesitesendedtheheating

seasonwellabovetheir

five-yearaverages.The

reduced

market

strains

and

relatively

well

stocked

storagesites

ahead

of

the

summer

are

reasons

for

cautious

optimismfor

supply

security.However,

thisconfluence

of

factorsshouldnotdistractfromthefurthermeasuresneededtomitigatepotentialrisksthatcouldquicklyrenew

markettensionsandpricevolatility.The

strong

decline

in

gas

demand

continued

into

the

earlymonths

of

2023

due

to

favourable

weather

conditions

andtimely

policy

actions.

Naturalgas

consumptioninadvancedeconomiesinEuropefellbyanestimated55billioncubicmetres(bcm)year-on-yearduringthe2022/23heatingseason–itssteepest

dropinabsolutetermsforanywinterseasononrecord.The

European

and

global

gas

markets

suffered

a

major

supplyshock

in

2022

when

Russia

sharply

reduced

its

pipeline

gasdeliveries

to

the

European

Union

–

by

80%

over

the

course

ofthe

year

–

and

triggered

a

global

energy

crisis.Russia’ssteepgassupplycutsledtoa

reconfigurationof

globalLNG

flows,

droveupnaturalgaspricestoall-timehighsbothinAsiaandEuropeandnecessitatedareadjustmentingasdemand.The

steep

decline

in

natural

gas

demand

reduced

the

need

forstorage

withdrawals

in

Europe

and

the

United

States

over

the2022/23

winter.Inthe

EuropeanUnion,

storageinjectionsequaltoonlyhalf

of

thelevelseeninsummer2022wouldbeenoughtoreachtheEUtarget

of

fillingstoragesto90%

by

thestartof

the2023/24heatingseason.Lowerinjectiondemandoversummer2023couldpotentiallycontributetoafurthereasingof

marketfundamentals.PAGE|

5ExecutivesummaryGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Market

tensions

have

moderated

significantly

since

mid-December

2022Evolutionof

keyregionalkeygasmarkets

since

15December20220%TTFHenryHubAsianspotLNG-20%-40%-60%-80%IEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEA

analysisbasedon

CME(2023),HenryHubNaturalGas

FuturesQuotes,CME(2023),

Dutch

TTF

Natural

Gas

Month

Futures

Settlements;ICIS(2023),ICIS

LNG

Edge.PAGE|

6ExecutivesummaryGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Globalgassupply

is

setto

remaintightin2023

amidlower

Russianpipelinegas

deliveriesto

EuropemuteddomesticdemandareexpectedtofurtherreduceRussia’soutput

byover50bcmin2023,

addingtothechallengesfacingtheRussiangasindustry.Global

LNG

supply

is

forecast

to

increase

by

a

mere

4%

(orover20bcm)in2023.

Thiswouldnot

besufficienttooffsettheexpectedreductioninRussia’spipedgassuppliestoEurope.Globalgasdemandisexpected

toremainbroadlyflatin2023The

United

States

is

projected

to

account

for

over

half

of

theglobal

supply

increase

in

2023

and

become

the

world’s

largestLNG

exporter.Thisgrowthwillbesupportedprimarilybytherampingupof

theCalcasieuPassLNG

terminal

andtherestartofFreeport

LNG,whichreturnedtofullserviceat

theendof

thefirstquarterof

2023.

InadditiontotheUnitedStates,LNG

supplyfromAfricaandSouthandCentralAmericais

projectedtoincreasebycloseto10bcmamidimprovingfeedgasavailabilityandtherampingupof

theCoral

SouthandCongofloatingLNG

plants.

Bycontrast,Russia’sLNG

output

is

expectedtodecline.

Sakhalin-IILNG’sprojectoperatorannouncedinFebruary2023thattheplantwillmoveawayfromthe"peakload"strategyit

hasbeenpursuinginthelast

fewyears,whileproductionfromYAMALLNG

isexpectedtodeclineby5%year-on-yearin2023.Global

gas

demand

is

expected

to

remain

flat

in

2023,

withhigher

demand

in

Asia

Pacific

and

the

Middle

East

offsettingthe

expected

declines

in

Europe

and

North

America.

InAsia,gasdemandis

projectedtoincreasebycloseto3%,

withChinaandIndiaasthemaindrivers.GasdemandinChinais

forecasttoincreasebyover6%in2023,

supportedbyarecoveryineconomicactivityandpotentiallyhighergasuseinindustry.In

theMiddleEast,gasdemandis

forecasttoincreaseby2%,drivenbyIranandSaudiArabia.GasdemandinadvancedeconomiesinEuropeisprojectedtodeclineby

5%asrapidlyexpandingrenewablesweighongas-firedgeneration.Afterstronggrowthin2022,

gasdemandinNorthAmericais

expectedtodeclineby2%

asaresult

of

lowergasuseforspaceheating,

powergenerationandindustry.The

level

of

Russian

pipeline

gas

supplies

is

a

majorChinagraduallyrecovers

its

appetitefor

LNG,althoughimportsare

set

toremainbelowtheir2021

levelsuncertainty

for

the

remainder

of

2023.

If

flows

totheEuropeanUnioncontinueat

thelevelsseeninthefirstquarter,

RussianpipedgasdeliveriestoadvancedeconomiesinEuropewoulddropby45%(orover35bcm)in

2023comparedwith2022.Following

a90bcmdropinRussiangasproductionin2022,lowerexportsandChina’s

LNG

imports

declined

by

an

unprecedented

20%

in2022,

enabling

higher

LNG

deliveries

to

the

European

market.China’sLNG

import

growthrecoveredtodouble-digitgrowthinMarch2023,

supportedbyhigherdomesticgasdemand.

ThePAGE|

7ExecutivesummaryGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023country’sLNG

inflowsareexpectedtoincrease

by10-15%comparedwith2022whileremainingbelowtheir2021levels.As

a

result,

there

is

a

continued

need

to

reduce

gas

demand

ina

structural

manner

throughimprovedenergyefficiencymeasures,accelerateddeployment

of

renewablesandheat

pumps,

aswellasbehaviouralchanges.Short-termsoptionstoenhancegassupplyandoptimisetheuseof

gasinfrastructureshouldbepromoted,includingviathereductionof

methaneleaksandgasflaring.LNG

became

effectively

a

new

baseload

supply

for

Europe,accountingfortwo-thirdof

theregion’simportsandmeetingaroundone-thirdof

itsgasdemandthroughthe2022/23winterseason.AfterstronggrowthinQ12023,

OECD

Europe’s

LNG

imports

areexpected

to

decline

for

the

remainder

of

the

year

amidstlowerinjectionneedsandacontinueddeclineinEuropeangasconsumption.E-methane:Agasfitfornetzero?Beyond

the

immediate

security

of

supply

concerns,

there

is

aclear

and

urgent

need

for

policy

makers

and

the

private

sectorto

promote

effective

ways

to

decarbonise

gas

supply.

E-methaneis

interchangeablewithnaturalgasandwouldlimittheneedforretrofittingexistingnaturalgasplantsandnetworkswhileenhancingsystemand

seasonalflexibility.Aspart

of

theIEA’sLow-EmissionGasWorkProgramme,

thisquarterlyeditionof

theGasMarket

Report

provides

anin-depthoverviewof

thedevelopmentsrelatedtoe-methane.

E-methane’shighproductioncostsrequirefurthertechnologicaldevelopmentandpolicysupport,

includingthroughcloserdialogue

betweenfutureproducersandconsumers.Groundsforcautious

optimismPressure

on

the

European

and

global

gas

markets

has

easedsince

the

beginning

of

2023

duetofavourable

weatherconditionsandtimelypolicyactions.

Theimprovedoutlook

forgasmarketsin2023is

noguaranteeagainst

futurevolatilityandshouldnot

beadistractionfrommeasurestomitigatepotentialrisks.Global

gas

supply

is

set

to

remain

tight

in

2023,

and

the

globalbalance

is

subject

to

an

unusually

wide

range

of

uncertainties.Therisksincludeadverseweatherfactors,suchasadrysummerorcolder-than-usualendoftheyear,

loweravailabilityof

LNG,andthepossibilityof

afurtherdeclineinRussianpipelinegasdeliveriestoEurope.

Thesefactorscouldeasilyrenewmarkettensionsandpricevolatility.PAGE|

8ExecutivesummaryGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Global

gas

supply

is

set

to

remain

tight

in

2023Year-on-yearchangein

globalnatural

gassupply(2019-2023)9060300-30-60-9020192020202120222023Russia-pipelineflowsto

EuropeRussia-pipelineflowto

ChinaLNGsupplyOthers-pipelineflowstoEuropeCentralAsia-pipelineflowsto

ChinaNetchangeIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEA

analysisbasedon

ENTSOG(2023),

Transparency

Platform;Eurostat(2023),Energy

Statistics;GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPeople’sRepublicof

China(2023),Customs

Statistics;ICIS(2023),ICIS

LNG

Edge;JODI(2023),Gas

World

Database.PAGE|

9ExecutivesummaryGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Global

gas

growth

turned

negative

in

2022,

flat

and

uncertain

for

2023Changeinglobalnaturalgas

demandpercalendaryear,2020-2023BreakdownbyregionBreakdownbysector20010002001000-100-200-100-2002019-20AfricaCentralandSouthAmericaEurope2020-212021-222022-232019-20Powergeneration2020-212021-22Industry2022-23AsiaPacificEurasiaMiddleEastWorldResidentialandcommercialTransportEnergysectorAll

sectorsNorthAmericaIEA.CCBY4.0.PAGE|

10Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecastGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Gas

market

update

and

short-term

forecastPAGE|

11Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecastGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Gas

demand

increased

in

North

America

during

the

winter,

but

is

expected

to

contract

in

2023Duringthewinterseasonof

2022/23theUnited

States

sawanestimated0.6%year-on-year(y-o-y)increasein

itsconsumptionofnaturalgas.

AstemperaturesplummetedinDecember,theendoftheyearsawadramaticriseinthedemandfornaturalgasforcommercialandresidentialheating.Thefirstquarterof

2023,however,

sawasignificantreversal,

withmild

temperaturesnearlyreversingtheincreaseindemandoverthepreviousyear’swinterseason.

Overall,

natural

gasconsumptionsaw

a5.3%risein2022,drivenbytheuseof

naturalgasforpowergeneration.Thiswasstimulatedby

theneedforcooling,

whichcanbeattributedtohightemperaturesduringthe

summermonths.Theindustrialsectorexperienceda2.1%decrease

innaturalgasconsumptionduringwinter2022/23relativetowinter2021/22,albeitat

arelativelystablerate.GasconsumptioninCanada

increasedby

closeto7%in2022.Bothwholesalecustomers(largeindustryandpowergenerators)andresidentialandcommercialcustomers

contributedtothisgrowth.

Theswitchawayfromcoalinthepowergenerationmixhasbeengraduallypushing

demandfornaturalgasupwards.

Thewinterseasonstartedwithariseinresidentialandcommercialnaturalgasconsumption(up7.5%y-o-yinQ4

2022)duetolowerthanaveragetemperatures,but

thistrendcouldpotentiallybecounteractedinthefirstquarterof

2023astemperatureswerehigherthanaverage.Mexico’s

apparent

naturalgasconsumptionremainedstabley-o-yduringtheperiodfromOctober2021toJanuary2022.Furthermore,theretirement

of

coal-firedpowerplantsandrelativelyhighcoalprices,alongwithlower

thanaverage

coalstocks,causedcoalconsumptionforpowergenerationtodecrease,leadingtoaswitchinfavourof

naturalgasforelectricitygeneration.

Thisresultedinnaturalgasaccountingfor38.0%of

thepowermixonaverageduringthewinterperiod,

ora

3percentagepointincreaseoverthepreviouswinter,whilecoalfellto18.4%,

adropof2.5percentagepoints.NorthAmericangasconsumptionis

expectedtodecreasebyabout2.9%in2023.IntheUnitedStates,

slowereconomicgrowthissettodepressgasdemand

inindustry,whileanunseasonablymildQ1reducedgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,weighingontheoutlook

forthefullyear.Theeconomicslowdowncoupledwiththestrongexpansionof

renewablesis

settoreducethecallongas-firedpowerplants,

althoughcontinuedcoal-to-gasswitchingcouldmoderatetheoveralldeclinein

gas

demandforpower

generation.Inaddition,

abnormallylowtemperatures

–especiallyduringthearcticfrontthatswept

acrossthecountry

inlateDecember

causingheavyrainandsnow–

greatlyaddedtotheriseintheuseof

naturalgasforresidentialandcommercialheating.Instarkcontrast,Januarysawunseasonablymildtemperatures,settingnewrecordsforthewarmest

month,offsettingthetrend.PAGE|

12Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecastGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Growth

in

US

gas

consumption

during

the

past

winter

was

sustained

by

power

generation

andheating

needs

during

cold

weather

in

Q4Monthly

naturalgasconsumption,UnitedStates,winter2021/22and2022/23Gasconsumptionby

sector,UnitedStates,winter2022/23relativetowinter2021/221301201101009010%14%12%10%8%5%0%6%-5%804%702%60500%OctNov2021/22DecJan2022/23FebMarY-o-ychange(%)IEA.CCBY4.0.‘Sources:IEA

analysisbasedon

EIA(2023),Natural

Gas

Consumption;Natural

Gas

Weekly

Update.PAGE|

13Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecastGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Gas

consumption

saw

a

limited

decline

in

Central

and

South

America

in

2022,

and

is

expectedto

stabilise

in

2023NaturalgasconsumptionintheCentralandSouthAmericaregionisestimatedtohavefallen

bycloseto1.5%in2022,primarilyduetolower

needforgasforpowergeneration

inBrazilafterrecorddroughtsin2021.Itis

expectedtostabilise

in2023withalimiteddeclineof

lessthan1%as

higher

hydroavailability

(asof

theendofQ1)furtherreducesgasforpowerneeds,

partly

compensatedbylimitedgrowthamongindustrialconsumers.closeto70%onstrong

hydrorecovery.Gasconsumptionforthewholeof

2022declined

byanestimated22%y-o-y,draggeddownbyasteep61%dropin

gasuseforpowergeneration,whiledemandfromindustryandretailcustomersincreasedby7%and5%respectively.

Operationaldatashowthathydroelectricityincreasedby4.2TWhy-o-y(up4%)inthefirstquarterof

2023againstonly2.6TWh(up2%)fortotalelectricitygeneration,resultinginanestimated6TWhdropingas-firedgeneration(down62%).Argentina’s

gasconsumptiondeclinedbyabout2%y-o-yinthefourthquarterof

2022afterregisteringa3%increaseinthefirstninemonthsof

theyear,asdemandgrowthfromtheindustrialsectorturnednegativeinthefinal

monthsof

2022.

Thepowergenerationsector,whichaccountsforcloseto30%of

totalgasconsumption,

experiencedan11%declinein2022duetomodestgrowthinelectricitydemand

andareboundinhydrogenerationfromthelowlevelsof

2021.

Thiswaspartlyoffset

byincreasesfromtheindustrialsector(up

by6%)andtheresidentialandcommercialsector(upby3%),whichaccount

foraquarter

of

totalgasdemandeach.

Domesticproductiongrewby3%in2022,

supportedbya14%increaseintheVacaMuertashalebasin

inNeuquénprovince,whichcontributedtoa26%reductioninnatural

gasimports.GasproductioninTrinidad

and

Tobago

increasedby4%in2022whileLNGexportsrecoveredby

19%y-o-y,leadingtoanestimateddeclineindomesticconsumptionof

closeto3%.Apparent

gasconsumptiongrewby10%inCentral

America

and

the

Caribbeanin2022,

andLNG

importsalmost

doubledduringtheOctober2022toFebruary2023period,supportedbystrongincreasesin

JamaicaandPanama.Bolivia,

Chile

andPeru

reporteda10%increaseintheirrespectivegasdemandin2022.

Colombia

sawitsgasconsumptionincreaseby5%overthesameperiod,

althoughearly2023datashowa6%y-o-ydeclineforthefirsttwomonthsof

theyear.ThedeclineingasuseinBrazil

furtheracceleratedinQ42022witha29%y-o-yslide,

asgasburnfor

powergenerationdroppedbyPAGE|

14Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecastGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Declines

in

gas

demand

in

Argentina

and

Brazil

in

2022

were

almost

balanced

by

growth

inother

Central

and

South

American

marketsMonthlynatural

gasconsumption,Centraland

SouthAmerica,2021-20221614121086420JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND20212022Argentina

Brazil

Venezuela

TrinidadandTobago

Colombia

Chile

Peru

Bolivia

OtherIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEA

analysisbasedon

ANP(2023),Boletim

Mensal

da

Produção

de

Petróleo

e

Gás

Natural;BMC(2023),

Informes

Mensuales;CentralBank

ofTrinidadandTobago(2023),Statistics;CNE(2023),Generación

bruta

SEN;ENARGAS(2023),Datos

Abiertos;ICIS(2023),ICIS

LNG

Edge;IEA(2023),Monthly

Gas

Data

Service;JODI(2023),Gas

Database;MME(2023),Boletim

Mensal

de

Acompanhamento

da

Industria

de

Gás

Natural;OSINERG(2023),Reporte

diario

de

la

operación

de

los

sistemas

de

transporte

de

gas

natural.PAGE|

15Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecastGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023Gas

use

for

power

generation

remains

low

in

Brazil

in

Q1

2023

on

strong

hydro

availability

andlimited

electricity

demand

growthMonthlyhydroandgas-firedelectricityproductionandLNGimports,Brazil,2020-2023504030201002.01.61.20.80.40.0J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M2020202120222023LNGimportsHydrogenerationGas-firedgenerationIEA.CCBY4.0.Sources:IEA

analysisbasedon

EPE(2023),Monthly

Review

of

the

Electricity

Market;ICIS

(2023),

ICIS

LNG

Edge;ONS(2023),

Power

Generation.PAGE|

16Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecastGasMarket

Report,

Q2-2023European

gas

demand

dropped

by

a

record

55

bcm

during

the

2022/23

heating

seasonNaturalgasconsumptioninOECDEuropefellbyanestimated16%(or55bcm)y-o-yduring

the2022/23heatingseason–itssteepestdropinabsolutetermsfor

anywinterseasoninourrecords.

Highgaspricescontinuedtoweighongasuseinindustry,whilemilderweatherconditions–togetherwithenergysavingmeasures

–depresseddistributionnetwork-relateddemand

andgasburninthepowersector.homesintheEuropean

Unionstoodat

6.9%in

2021.

Thissituationis

expectedtohavesignificantlyworsenedduring

the2022/23winterseason.Gasburnforpower

generationdeclinedbyanestimated12%(10bcm)y-o-yduringthe2022/23heatingseason.Thiswaslargelydrivenbylowerelectricityconsumption,

whichfellbycloseto7%(90TWh),its

largest

dropinabsolutetermsforanywinterseasoninourrecords.

Milderweather,energysavingmeasuresandlowerelectricityuseinindustrywerethemain

driversbehindthissharpdecline.

Gasdemandin

industryfellbycloseto20%(20

bcm)y-o-yduringthewinterseason,withhighpricesleadingtocontinuedfuel-switchingandreducedoper