金蝶K3v12销售管理实务培训

销售管理实务提纲版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P2销售目标和销售流程销售预测(mpsec3)分销管理订单处理客户服务评价(mpsec8)、销售分析不同策略下销售关注点（参考售前培训资料）分销下的不同模式销售的含义版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P3企业的价值来源生产经营成果的实现销售循环Post-SalesPre-SalesSales版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-36P4不同制造策略下的销售管理方式设计库存加工装配运输交货期加工库存装配运输加工装配库存运输采购加工装配运输交货期交货期交货期Make-to-Stock面向库存生产版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P5Engineer-to-Order面向订单设计Make-to-Order面向订单生产Assemble-to-Order面向订单装配MTS版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P6Make-to-Stock按照预测生产直接从成品库发货交货提前期最短关注：持库成本（年费用占存货成本的15~25%）存储设施盘点、搬运、事务处理损坏、工程变更引起的呆滞保险和税收丢失的风险机会成本过保质期货物配送预测准确性ATO版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P7Assemble-to-Order收到客户订单后才开始装配

用于装配的组件、零件等已经预先按照计划生产并存放在仓库中交货提前期短关注：快速交货客户需求变更MTO版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P8Make-to-Order只有收到客户订单后才开始生产关注：生产排程设备的灵活性提前期长ETO版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P9Engineer-to-Order收到客户订单后才开始设计和生产关注：可用的技术资源可用的设备资源提前期最长提纲版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P10销售目标和销售流程销售预测(mpsec3)分销管理订单处理客户服务评价(mpsec8)需求模式相关需求vs独立需求只有独立需求产品需要预测相关需求产品不需要预测版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-7P11要预测的对象是什么?经营规划市场导向2至10年销售与运作计划（S&OP）产品线和产品族1至3年主生产计划（MPS）终端产品月预测对象时间跨度层次版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-8P12预测原则版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-9P13预测通常不会100%准确都应该包含一定的误差预估对产品线或产品族的预测更加准确时间越近,预测越准确Product

lines–产品线Product

families–产品族Product

groups–产品组准备和收集数据版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-10P14以与预测需要的相同术语记录数据记录与数据相关的环境针对不同客户群的需求进行分别记录定性技术版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-11P15是基于直觉和经验丰富人员的观点的预测是主观预测一般用于经营规划和新产品的预测通常用于中长期预测定量技术版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-12P16基于企业内部随时可供使用的历史数据的预测假设历史会重复上演外因技术版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-13P17基于外部指标的预测有助于预测企业整体需求或产品族需求外因定量技术版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-14P1811月12月1月9184?移动平均用过去几个月的平均需求作为下一时期需求的预测例如，假设使用过去三个月的移动平均：79.3假设1月份的需求是90，则2月份的预测计算如下：88.3版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-15P19移动平均预测版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-16P20能用来滤掉随机变化期间越长越容易消除随机变化如果存在一种趋势，很难被发现当处理的期间比较多时，手工计算非常繁琐指数平滑版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-19P21提供一个更新产品预测的常用方法对于需求稳定的产品效果比较好对短期的预测能提供令人满意的效果可以检测市场趋势，但预测落后于趋势季节性衡量一个产品需求季节性变化的幅度大小涉及某一特定期间的平均需求和所有期间的平均需求版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-20P22季平均需求/100季节性指数1128/100=1.282102/100=1.02375/100=0.75495/100=0.95Total=4.00计算季节性需求指数版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-21P23季节性需求所有期间的平均需求版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-22P24需求（单位）季节性需求时间（季度）监控预测版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-23P25预测不可能百分之百的正确为什么要监控预测？为了未来针对偏差做计划调整为了衡量真实需求与预测之间的差异为了改进我们的预测方法偏差：累计实际需求可能不等于预测。当累计差异不等于0时，偏差就会产生。描述预测误差的两种方法版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-24P26描述预测误差的两种方法(续)上表的例子不存在偏移，但是每个月都有随机偏差。随机偏差：需求与平均值相比，有正有负。差异版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司2-25P27提纲版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P28销售目标和销售流程销售预测(mpsec3)分销管理客户订单处理客户服务评价(mpsec8)分销的目标版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-6P29分销指服务或产品从生产者通过多级渠道向最终消费者转移的过程；分销的目标High

levels

of

Customer

ServiceTimely

delivery

lead

timesBuffering

against

demand

uncertaintiesProviding

the

necessary

variety

of

goodsItem

and

quantity

accuracyHigh

levels

of

Distribution

EfficiencyMinimum

transportation

costsLevel

production

of

replenishment

ordersSize

and

location

of

storageAccurate

inventory

dataMinimum

Inventory

InvestmentMinimum

necessary

safety

stockOptimum

order

quantities

to

control

cycle

stockSource:

Adapted

from

Ross,

David

F.,

Distribution

Planning

and

Control

(Chapman

&

Hill,

1996).版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-7分销供应链供应商制造商分销功能批发商零售商客户/消费者P30版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-8Distribution

RelationshipsPrimary

flow

of

InformationPrimary

flow

of

Products

and

ServicesPrimary

flow

of

CashSupplierManufacturerDistributorRetailerP31的处理，客户和总办事处办事处工工厂厂代理商办事处代理商 代理商集团总部集团集团总部总部事业部B区域A事业部C分公司A分公司A分支/机代构理A商分公司C分公司B分公司B分公司D工厂工厂工厂工厂厂工厂事业部A分自支营机办专构事卖处店 办事自办处营事B0专处2柜

办事处加B0盟1专卖店部高总效部的统区直域接市结场算，主要是现款现货，定期考核，遵循统一销售政策，允许退中周转慢物流。；。；长流长；较物；较责期责慢期负周负转周心算心周算金结金中结换货事代事代分连分连业理业理锁公锁部商部商零司零司模售模售式模式式办事处模式产异产异制异制异品地品地造地造事商事商业商业业务业务连务连部，部，锁，锁一异一异零异零异般地般地售地售地多物多物，物个流个流自流自流事，事，行，行，业异业异生异地部地产地采结采结。结。用算用算低算低统。统。成。成一总一总本总本的扩部扩异分张与张与地销分，分商渠公灵公灵务商道活司活司，结的结集分算区算中公域，域，结部和代理

之间直接结算，司算市分算市分负。公场。场公责办司策办策司对事略和事略和外客，处，客理商跟结完户快完户快算成进速成进速，销调行销行调代客户直接结算事售结整售整结业中算产中算产部的品的品和物策物策分流略流略公和；和；司商之流；间内部结算；有低独流销额立通售的事业任配业连务送部锁要费一零求用般售，；有，单但总但总独权部权部的采利采利严分购分购格销散，散，控渠分，分，制道不支不库，负易负存独，形责，形立占渠成占渠成对道整压道整压外资开体资开体结拓优金优拓算少，势少，势；，配，配但送资但资送规定渠道可销售商品代、理供商货可网销络产品的限混制合模式：既自行生产又外购商品。常见的几种分销模式版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P32分销体系中的安全库存Distribution

centre

operation■■reduce

lead

time

to

customerreduce

costsTotal

number

of

distribution

centers

increases

=

total

amount

of

inventory

increasesTotal

cost

=

warehouse

cost

+

carrying

cost

+

transportation

costDetermination

of

safety

stock■SS

for

DC

=版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P33#

of

DCsSS

for

1DCWhere:SS

=

Safety

StockDC

=

Distribution

CentreFor

example,

if

a

company

were

carrying

500

units

of

safety

stock

at

one

distributioncenter

and

decided

to

add

three

additional

distribution

centers,

the

required

safetystock

for

each

distribution

center

would

be:Accordingly,

the

total

amount

of

safety

stock

for

the

company

would

equal:Total

safety

stock

=

250

x

4(DCs)

=

1,000Source:

Arnold,

J.

R.

Tony,

Introduction

to

Materials

Management,

3rd

ed.

(Prentice-Hall,

1998).Level

of

Safety

Stock

RequiredSS

for

DC

=版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-11P34#

of

DCsSS

for

1DCWhere:SS

=

Safety

StockDC

=

Distribution

CentreDetermining

the

Number

of

Warehouses

by

CostSource:

Adapted

from

Ross,

David

F.

Distribution

Planning

and

Control

(1996,

Kluwer

Academic

Publishers)COSTTransportationCostsNUMBER

OF

WAREHOUSESTotal

CostWarehouse

Costs版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-12P35Carrying

CostsIncrease

in

first

few

number

of

DC■■■The

cost

of

truckload

(TL)

and

rail

carload

(CL)

will

increaseThe

cost

of

less

than

truckload

(LTL)

will

decreaseThe

total

cost

of

transportation

will

decreaseTotal

Distribution

System

Cost版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P36Total

cost

=■■■■■Inventory

costsInventory

carrying

costsWarehouse

lease

and

utility

costsPackaging

equipment

and

materialsMaterial

handling

equipment

and

personnelCost

increase

with

increase

#

of

centersBusiness

decision■Cost

of

operation

Vs

opportunities

cost

of

customer

servicesTotal

Distribution

System

CostCOST

IN

DOLLARSNUMBER

OF

WAREHOUSESTransportationInventoryWarehouseTotal

CostPackagingMaterialsHandling版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-13P37Qualitative

Factor

Analysis

IllustratedTable

of

subjective

score

assessments*版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-16P40*

Score

on

a

scale

of

1

to

100**

Weight

on

a

scale

of

1

to

10

where

1

=

least

significant

and

10

=most

significant(Best

Site)分销计划系统版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-17P41再订货点法再订货点法Pull

system

using

reorder

pointPush

systemDistribution

requirements

planning

(DRP)Distribution

resource

planning

(DRP

II)Vendor-managed

and

vendor-owned

inventory

(VMI

and

VOI)Collaborative

planning

forecasting

and

replenishment

(CPFR)Near

production

replenishment

(for

production

sites

only)Reorder

Point版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-18P42Demand

constant

and

predictableROP

=

DDLT

+

SSSafety

Stock

covers

demand

variation

in

lead

timeBasically

reactive,

looks

at

historyNo

advance

notice

to

the

supplierPull

System

using

Reorder

PointDistribution

Center

1Impact

onCentralWarehousesupporting3

DCsPull

from

DC

1Pull

from

DC

2Pull

from

DC

3Inventory

at

Central

WarehouseInventoryOPSSDistribution

Center

2Distribution

Center

3OP2OP1InventoryOPSSInventoryOPSS版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-19P43Push

SystemDC

1DC

2DC

3RegionalWarehouse版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-20P44Push

System

Concepts版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-21P45Time

Phased

Order

Point

(TPOP)Data

processing

and

communicationFeasibility

of

centralized

push

systemsSales

replacement

and

base

stock

systemsTime-Phased

Order

Point

Example版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-22P46Safety

stock

=

80Order

quantity

=

500Lead

time

=

2Periods12345678Forecast

demand130160120260130120185115Scheduled

receiptsProjected

available37024080460200570450265150Net

Requirements4010Planned

order

receipts500500Planned

order

released500500Push

System

AllocationExampleTotal

units

in

the

system

=Minus

the

safety

stock

requirements225

+

195

=

420=

420

-

60

=

360=

Total

supply

net

of

safety

stock

=

360

= 9

days’Days

of

supplysupplyTotal

Daily

Usage

40=

daily

usage

rate

x

days

of

supply

+

safety

stock=

requirements

oecurrent

on

handRequirementsQuantity

to

sendRequirements版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-23P47Warsaw =

10

x

9

+

15Quantity

to

send=

105

–

47

=

58Kobe =

7

x

9

+

10

= 73

–

42

=

31Source:

Adapted

from

Fogarty,

Distribution

Inventory

Management

(APICS,

1984).Memphis

Central

Warehouse

Stock=

225Requirements

WeekWarehouse

Location/#Safety

StockOn

Hand12345Daily

UsageManila1122840404040408Warsaw21547505050505010Kobe3104235353535357New

Delhi41864606060606012Perth551415151515153Total6019520020020020020040Distribution

Requirements

Planning版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-24P48

Planning

replenishment

in

adistribution

networkUsing

“TPOP/MRP”

logicMultilevel

usageImplodes

to

master

schedulingPlanning

horizonReplanning

frequencyDRP

Exercise版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-25P49Lot

Size

QuantityLead

TimeWarehouse

A1001Warehouse

B502Warehouse

C1002Central

Supply3002Central

SupplyWeek12345678Gross

Reqmts.2001502001502502501000Schd.

ReceiptsProj.

Avbl

5503502000150200250150150Net

ReqmtsPind

Ord

Rcpts300300300Pind

Ord

Rises300300300Warehouse

AWeek12345678Gross

Reqmts.8080807080909090Schd.

ReceiptsProj.

Avbl

90103050800102030Net

Reqmts705020908070Pind

Ord

Rcpts100100100100100100Pind

Ord

Rises100100100100100100Warehouse

CWeek12345678Gross

Reqmts.6060707080809090Schd.

ReceiptsProj.

Avbl

17011050801030506070Net

ReqmtsPind

Ord

Rcpts100100100100100Pind

Ord

Rises100100100100100Warehouse

BWeek12345678Gross

Reqmts.3030302030353535Schd.

ReceiptsProj.

Avbl

9060300300153045Net

ReqmtsPind

Ord

Rcpts50505050Pind

Ord

Rises50505050Distribution

Resource

Planning

(DRP

II)版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-27P50The

extension

of

distributionrequirements

planning

into

theplanning

of

the

keyresourcescontained

in

a

distribution

system:warehouse

space,

workforce,money,

trucks,

freight

cars,

etc.-APICS

Dictionary,

9th

ed.,

1998.DRP

System

Requirements版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P51Planning

BucketsForecasts

by

distribution

centreNet

change

regenerationAutomatic

replenishment

order

releaseAutomatic

purchasing

documentationAutomatic

document

printing

and

shippingVendor-Managed

Inventory

(VMI)版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-28P52

Supplier

has

access

to

customer’sinventory

data

The

vendor

is

responsible

for

maintainingcustomer’s

inventory

levels

Replenishment

is

triggered

at

a

certainsales

levelContracts

specify

ownership

of

materialCPFR版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-29P53CPFR:

Collaborative

Planning,

Forecasting,

and

Replenishment

The

collective

sharing

of

information

between

partners

in

globalsupply

chains

Objective

is

to

eliminate

the

safety

stocks

caused

by

uncertainty

ofdemand

at

each

level

in

the

supply

chainExtended

Supply

Chain

InterfacesRaw

MaterialSupplierRELIABLE

OPERATIONSManufacturingManufacturerDistribution

Ctr.CustomerDistribution

Ctr.CustomerRetail

StoreIntegratedSuppliersSynchronizedProductionContinuousReplenishmentAutomatedStore

Ordering版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司4-30P54Bill

of

Distribution

and

Bill

of

MaterialComponent1Component2Component3Product

AWarehouse1Warehouse2Warehouse3Supply

warehouseBILL

OF

MATERIALBILL

OF

DISTRIBUTION版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-31P55RW2PRODUCTPACKAGEBOTTLECAPBULKBOXLABELINSERTDC1

DC4DC2

DC3RW1DC5DC6ENT

ITEMDRP/MRP

Interface

with

MPSDRP版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-32P56MPSMRP提纲版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P57销售目标和销售流程销售预测(mpsec3)分销管理客户关系管理客户订单处理客户服务评价(mpsec8)Customer

Order

Management版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-25P58Accurate

databaseEasy

and

effective

entry

systemsAccurate

product

or

service

availability

informationRapid

processingAllocationOrder

confirmationReliable

deliveryDatesDate

of

originalorderentryOriginal

Requestedreceipt

dateOriginal

promised

ship

dateRevised

requested

receipt

dateRevised

promised

ship

dateDate

of

customerorderchange版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-26P59Order

Cycle

and

Lead

TimesOrderOrderInventory

Order

OrderPreparationReceipt

Allocation

ShipmentShippingand

and

and

and

ReceiptTransmittalPicking

Invoicing

andEntryClose1

day2

days 1

day1

day 4

daysTotal

lead

time

=

9

daysExternalTime版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-27P60InternalTimeInternalTimeInternalTimeExternalTimeSource:

Adapted

from

Ross,

D.F.

Distribution

Planning

and

Control

(1996,

Kluwer

Academic

Publishing)Traditional

Supply

ChainConsumerRetailerWholesalerDistribution

CenterManufacturerSupplier版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-28P61Quick

ResponseSupplierCustomer版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-29P62SupplierTechnological

Elements

of

Quick

Response

(QR)版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-30P63Forecasting/Planning

SystemsAutomatic

ReplenishmentInventory

Management

SystemsStreamlined

Distribution

Center

Processinge-CommerceShipping

Container

MarkingAutomated

Point

of

Sales

DataMonitoringOrder

Status版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-31P64Timely

and

accurate

dataManaging

prioritiesMeasuring

performanceProcessing

changesReplanning,

if

necessaryDemand

Management

ActivitiesForecasting(Predicted

Sales)Customer

Service(Actual

Sales)DemandManagementRule:

Do

not

forecast

what

you

can

calculate.版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-32P65Order

Promising版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司3-33P66Available-to-promiseCapable-to-promiseProducts

and

other

end

itemsService

partsServices提纲版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司P67销售目标和销售流程销售预测(mpsec3)分销管理客户关系管理客户订单处理客户服务评价(mpsec8)客户服务水平评价版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司8-14P68从客户数量的角度：保留的老客户数量每年重复采购的客户数量/总客户数量总客户数量客户增长数量Customer

Service

Measurements

(cont.)版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司8-15P69质量－内部指标每百万单位的次品数质量成本预防成本评估成本内部失败成本外部失败成本员工质量培训的小时数未计划的机器维修的小时数Customer

Service

Measurements

(cont.)版权所有©1993-2006金蝶软件(中国)有限公司8-16P70质量－外部指标质量成本－外部失败成本平均无故障时间Mean

time

between

failures(MT