人民币汇率与日元汇率制度演变历程及启示(英文版)

RMBExchangeRateSystemACaseStudyofRMBAndYenExchangeRateTed(StudentNo:201130451377)ABSTRACTAsweallknow,theinfluenceofexchangeratemovementsonacountry'seconomyisimportant.Onthedomesticeconomy,ontheonehand,Exchangeratemovementsaffectthepriceriseorfall,Aftertheexchangeratechanges,affectonthepriceofimportedgoodshappenimmediately.Firstisthechangesinpricesofconsumergoodsandrawmaterialsimport,andthentoimportrawmaterialprocessingorsimilardomesticgoodsandimportedgoodspriceshavealsochangedAfterexchangeratechanges,thedomesticpricesofexportcommoditiesarealsochanged.Ontheotherhand,theexchangeratechangesaffectexportcommoditiesproductiondepartment.Foreigncurrencyappreciation,willmakeimportsmoreexpensive,sotoexportcommodityproducers,mainlyimportedrawmaterials,productioncostsrise,weakenitscompetitionabilityintheinternationalmarket,andtogiveprioritytowithdomesticrawmaterialsexportsproducerfavourable.Foreigncurrencydevaluation,wouldmakeimportscheaper,sothattheexportcommodityproducersspecializinginimportingrawmaterialsoflowerproductioncosts,exportproductsalsoenhanceitscapabilityofinternationalcompetitioninthemarket,whileatthesametimeisgivenprioritytowithdomesticrawmaterialsofexportcommodityproducerscannotgetthebenefitsduetoexchangeratechanges.exchangeratechangesalsoaffectacountry'sforeigneconomic.Thefallinthevalueofthecurrencyexpandtheirexports,toinhibittheactionofthedomesticimport,whichislikelytoreversethetradedeficit,alsocanpromotelocaltourismandrelatedtradeincomeincrease.Inaddition,exchangeratechangesaffectacountry'sgoldreserves.Reservecurrencyexchangeratemovementsaffecttherealvalueofacountry'sforeignexchangereserves,reservecurrencyappreciation,istherealvalueofacountry'sforeignexchangereservesincrease,reduceconversely.Inaword,exchangeratechangeshastheimportantinfluencetothenationaleconomy.However,Whoinfluenceexchangerates?Ofcourseistheexchangeratesystem.Since1949,officialRMBexchangeratehasexperiencedaratetothemarket,fromafixedexchangerateguidetheevolutionofthemanagementofthefloatingexchangerate.Therearethreeperiods,theyaretheplannedeconomyperiod,economictransitionperiod,thesocialistmarketeconomyperiod.Wecangettheexperienceandinspirationfromthestudyoftheyenexchangerateandexchangeratesystemchanges.KEYWORDSTheexchangeratesystem,RMBexchangerate,Yenexchangerate,economy.BACKGROUNDOFRMBEXCHANGERATERMBappreciationpressurestatusanalysisandmitigationcountermeasuresonJuly21,2005,thepeople'sbankofChinaissuedannouncement:Chinasincethatday,practiceonthebasisofmarketsupplyanddemand,"abasketofcurrencies,managedfloatingexchangeratesystem.ThissuggeststhattheChinesereturntomanagementofthefloatingway,officiallylaunchedthereformofRMBexchangerateregime.Aftertheinternationalcommunityhavegreatexpectations,revaluationoftherenminbiin2005,however,smallamplitudeofappreciationoftheyuanfarcannotsatisfytheneedofrelevantcountries,thesecountriestocontinuetoputpressureonourgovernment,stillrequirefurtherrenminbiappreciation.EVOLUTIONOFRMBEXCHANGRATESYETEMSThePlannedEconomyPeriod(1949-1978)OnJanuary8,1949,thepeople'sbankofChinabegantocurrencyexchangeratespublishedinthesky.Undertheunifiedmanagementofthecentral,Shanghaiandguangzhouusedtianjinexchangerateasthestandard,accordingtothelocalpricesituation,publishedtheirownexchangerate.RMBexchangerateofplannedeconomyperiodinalongerhistoricalperiodofafixedexchangeratearrangement,hasbeenpeggedtoabasketofcurrencies.39L9-5O1951L95219531954L9551-95619S7-2.12.752.2381.6172.6172..6172.46182.4&1S2.46182.46181955l^&015511952295319551S672.46182.46182.4618Z.46182.46182..4&182.46182.4&182.46132.461819531^701971-1972-19731974197513751977197B-2.46182.461S2.26732.24012.02021.SJ971.96531.&&031.73001.5771FigurelEconomicTransitionPeriod(1979-1993)Theimpositionoftradeinternalsettlementpriceanddualexchangeratesystemofforeigncurrency.In1981-1984,officialRMBexchangeratehasatradeinternalsettlementpriceandnon-tradedualexchangeratesystemofopenquotation.OnJanuary1,1985tocancelinternalsettlementprice,toexecuteasingleexchangerate,theexchangerateof1dollarto2.8yuan.ThisisthefirsttimethattheRMBexchangeratesystem.Accordingtothepricechangesinsideandoutsidethegovernmentadjustedtheofficialexchangerate.During1985-1990,accordingtothechangeofdomesticpricesinourcountry,thegovernmentadjustedtheexchangerateto6yuanforonedollar.TheofficialexchangerateandcurrencyswapmarketexchangerateofRMBexchangerateregime.Since1980,thecountrystartedtoimplementsystemofforeignexchangeswap,setupaforeignexchangeswapcenter,openedforeignexchangeswapopenmarketoperations,formedtheofficialexchangerateandregulatethemarketexchangerateoccurringtogether.SinceApril9,1991,ourcountryexecutedamanagedfloatingexchangerate,attheendof1993to$1to5.8yuan.197919-S2198319S41985198619S719S81.49621.5303-1.70&11.89261.^7572.32702.91671.45283.72213.712119911993199519973.76S94.783&S.J2275.5149&.76198.618.78.3507S.J1428.28988.2791Figure2TheSocialistMarketEconomyPeriod(1994-?)SinceJanuary1,1994,officialRMBexchangerateandmarketexchangeratesgetintouch,thebankwrittenguaranteesystem,establishedanationwideunifiedinter-bankforeignexchangemarket,basedonmarketsupplyanddemandwillbeimplementedforasingleexchangerates.ThisisthesecondtimeofconnectionbetweentheRMBexchangeratesystemand.marketrateofexchange.SoutheastAsiafinancialturmoilin1997,ChinamadeChina'sexchangerateformafixedexchangeratepegtothedollarinordertomaintainregionaleconomicandfinancialstability,keeptheRMBexchangeratestrengthwithaattitudeofpowersresponsible.ThentheRMBexchangeratewasto$1to8.7yuan.OnJuly21,2005,thecentralbankannounceimprovingreformoftheRMBexchangerateformationmechanism.Approvedbythestatecouncil,sinceJuly21,2005,Chinabegantoimplementmanagedfloatingexchangeratesystemthatbebasedonmarketsupplyanddemand,referencingtoabasketofcurrencies,.TheRMBexchangerateisamoreflexibleRMBexchangeratemechanismnolongerpeggedtothedollar.TheRMBexchangerateisrisingin2013,andreachedanewhigherlevelwith$1to6.10yuanin2013.Figure31589L9W19^11^921卿19341S951^619973.7&5S4.7SJ85.3227551455.76198.61878.3M78.31418.28988.279113992D0G2&03200420052&0620072COB8.Z7968.27848.27708.27708.27748.2887.63&.92DD92010201120122013hlow6.S26.56306.106.0942EVOLUTIONOFYENEXCHANGRATESYETEMSBefore1971Theyenatthefixedexchangeratestage,duringthisperiodagainsttheyen,thedollarexchangeratetoyenhasremainedatthefixedlevelof1:360.After1971Asuddenriseintheyen,whichmainlystemsfromNixoncrisisinAugust1971(August15,1971,PresidentNixonspoke,itspurposeistoterminatethedollarwithgoldconvertibility,endthestandardofthepriceof$35perounceofgolddollarcommitment.Ithasbrokentheoriginalcountriestoperformfordollartogold,currenciesbindinginternationalexchangeratesystem,begantoimplementfloatingexchangeratesystem.AndinDecemberBrettonwoodsagreementandSmithagreementestablished。In1985Theyenincreaseinvalueagainsharply.Thisismainlyduetothesignof"plazaagreement"inSeptember1985.Asthebackground,from1979to1984,thesecondoilcrisis,leadingtoabigincreaseinenergypricesintheUnitedStates,theUnitedStatesappearedtheseriousinflation.Thefederalreserveraisedthefederalfundsrateforthreeconsecutivetimes,tighteningofmonetarypolicy.TheU.S.marketquicklyrosetoabout20%ofnominalinterestratelevel,short-termrealinterestratesupto3%-3%.HighinterestratestoattractalargenumberofoverseascapitalintotheUnitedStates,thedollartorisesharply,leadtoAmerica'stradedeficitexpandedquickly.By1984,America'scurrent-accountdeficitof$100billion.Basedontheabovereasons,majorwesternindustrialcountriesdeterminedtheinterventionintheforeignexchangemarketandaseriesofmeasuressuchastheplazaaccord.So,theyenisforcedtorise.In2008Theyenappreciateagainclearly.From2007to2010,theJapaneseyenfrom¥120to¥80.Thisismainlyaffectedbythe2008yearfinancialcrisis.In2010,theEuropeandebtcrisisandeconomiccrisisofGreecein2011broughtpressuretotheyen.In2013TheJapaneseyenstartedtofall.Thisisaproblemofconcernrecently.SinceMrAbecametopower,politicalpressuremakeAbecabinetincreasedstimulusgreatly.TheyencontinuestoriseinordertostimulatethedevelopmentofJapaneseeconomyandmakearecordingovernment.201)201)2:山1002:山100g曲祀陵陵甜'精廖律护押护榔卅册神贰濟册■USFAFigure4THEINFLIENCEOFEXCHANGERATEFixedExchangeRatePeriodFromfigure4,youcanseethatafixedexchangeratefor20years,Japan'seconomyhasmaintainedrapidgrowth.IntheKoreanwar"thespecial"stimulatingasanopportunity,therecoveryoftheJapaneseeconomybegantoenterthefastperiod,theequipmentinvestment,exportscontinuetoincrease,rapidlyimprovethenationallifelevel.SinceApril1949,Japandeclaredanofficialexchangerateforyenagainstthedollar,360:1,therangeoffloatingexchangerateis0.5%,whichmakestheJapaneseindustrywonagoldenopportunitytoreturntotheinternationalmarketafterthewar,theinternationalcompetitivenessofJapaneseexportsalsoincreasedsignificantly.ExternaldependencyofJapan'seconomyrapidlyfrom10%in1946to38.8%in1960.Sincethen,Japan'sexportindustrydevelopedmorequickly,the'60saverageannualgrowthrateisashighas16.8%ofJapan'sexports.Thelong-termandsustainablegrowthofJapan'seconomyisunprecedentedinthehistoryoftheworldcapitalisteconomicdevelopment,iscalled“theJapanesemiracle”.戦暧E衣①迤话区長莲+名目経済成長率亠実質経済成長率%25.022.015.012.05.02.0-5.0Figure4FloatingExchangeRatePeriodAsthefigure4.Althoughtheactualeconomicgrowthratein1974fellsharply,ahugeriseintheyenduringthisperiod.Othertimeshavemaintainedarelativelystableaveragegrowthrateof4%.Analysisofthecausesareasfollows:Aboutnegativegrowthin94,Ithinkmainlycomesfromtheoilcrisisof1993.Oilpricesrosefourtimes.WhileJapanwithlittleresourcesimportedrawmaterials,suchasoil,thusoilrosemadeheavyimpactonJapan'seconomic.Afterthat,Japanmaintainasteadyeconomicgrowth.Ithinkthattherearetworeasons.Firstly,forthefixedexchangerateof1:360,itisundervaluedyenactually.Nowexecutefloatingrate,arapidriseintheyen,butJapan'seconomicdevelopmentanditsstatusintheworldeconomyconstantlyimprovenaturalresults.Justalater,itadmittedtoitsrapideconomicgrowth.Thatis,itsappreciationismatchedwithitseconomicdevelopment.Secondly,TheJapanesegovernmenthastakenapositivepoliciesandmeasurestopromoteindustrialstructureadjustment,promotinglaborandcapitalintensiveindustrystructuretotechnologyandknowledgeintensiveindustrystructurechange,ontheonehand,itcangreatlysaveenergyresources,andthroughtheimplementationof"reducingmanagement"tosaveallkindsofcost,ontheotherhand,throughtechnicalinnovationtoincreasetheproductespeciallytheexportofhighvalue-addedproducts.PlazaAccordAsshowninfigure4,1984to1990tokeepthegoodeconomicgrowth.Firstly,Ithinkthisreasonisthataftertheplazaaccord,everyonewasagainsttheJapaneseyenappreciationexpectations.Secondly,itisthebankofJapantostemtheyenappreciation,atthesametimestimulatethedomesticeconomy,cutinterestratesinarow,hasdeclinedfrom4.5%in1986to2.5%in1989,andthelowinterestrateshavebeenlastedfor27months,thisleadstotheincreaseofthecurrency,althoughseeminglyineconomicgrowth,butleadtoinflation,economicbubble.After1989,theeconomybegantodeclinesharply.StemsmainlycomefromthebankofJapan'scontrolinflation,withinterestratesfrom2.5%in89,witharushmorethanayearoftime,itrosetothehighest6%.Thisledtotheeconomicbubbleburst.ThebankofJapanintheyenagainstthedollarchangesubstantiallywhenthe・・・・・・・・・-4-W-|intervention,tomitigateitsyenappreciationtocausesignificantdamagetoJapan'seconomy,butasaresultoftakingmeasurestoohardandthetimingisnotrightintime,sotheeffectofitsmonetarypolicynotonlydidn'treducetheadverseeffectsoftheyen'sappreciation,insteadbecameleadtoJapan'seconomicbubbleandthemaincauseofJapan'slong-termeconomicdepression^鈴木正俊YanBobookpublishinghouse)FinancialCrisisAsshowninfigure5,in2008years,thedeclineoftheeconomy.Butdoesnotmeanthatitisalltheeffectsoftheyen.Becausethecrisisintheglobaleconomyare

affected.Asoneofthefactorsthataffecttheeconomyduringtheperiodoftoomany,wecan'tmakeaconcreteanalysistotheeconomicimpactofexchangerateFigure520072011201：!■上IFigure520072011201：!■上I亦MrAbeCametoPowerAsthefigure5Abetooktheoffice,Japanimplementsthequantitativeeasingmonetarypolicy,fornow,theexchangerate,theunemploymentrate,GDPrise,allofthesearemovingintheinternationalfinancialcrisisbeforethestatusofthedevelopment;Seenfromtheresult,quantitativeeasingisnotJapan'sinflationrateofabove2%.Butthatisonlyintheshortterm.Inthelongrun,whiletheyentopromoteexportwithhigherpricesofimports.Ifyoudon'tadjustrelatedenergypolicy,thedemandforimportedenergywillextremelyrigid,leadingtoimportsoutpacingimportsgrowth.Inaddition,agriculturalpriceshaveincreaseddramatically.AndJapanimports90%ofwheat.Therefore,inthelongrun,theopinionthatMrAbe'syendepreciationpolicyisgoodforJapan'seconomyremainstobeseen.Tohistory,Japanesemonetarypolicyhasalwaysbeenalargeamountof"agent"fiercely,butoftenandimproper"big".(ThenationsJapan)Onlysolvingtheimmediateproblems,butitcan'tsolvesuchastheJapaneseeconomystructuralproblemsforaT・・・・T・p・・・<*・・・T・・longtime,enterpriseinnovationabilityisinsufficient,enterpriseproductioncostsrise,domesticconsumptionisinsufficient,ageing,fundamentalproblemssuchastheheavyfinancialburden.Inthelongrun,theestimateisnotfeasible.COMPARISONFixedExchangeRatePeriodFrom1949to1949,againsttheyen,thedollarexchangeratehasremainedatthefixedlevelof1:360.Startingfromthemid90sinChina,thedollaragainsttheRMBexchangeratehasremainedsteadyatthelevelof8.3to1.(MrKuroda2004)Althoughourcountryisa"managedfloatingexchangeratesystem",butinfactweareadisguisedformoffixedexchangeratespeggedtothedollar.Atthisstagetheeconomyhasbeenrapiddevelopment,theannualeconomicgrowthrateiscloseto10%,arefacinghugepressure.FloatingExchangeRatePeriodBecauseofthepressurefromtheoutsideworld,thefixedexchangeratetoafloatingexchangerate.In1971,thebrettonwoodssystemdisintegrationandSmith'sagreementissigned,theyenisforcedtorise,thebankofJapaninterventionbycurrencyonalargescale,asfaraspossibletoweakentheyen.(YangYunfeng2013)Buttheyenhasrisen6%.AndbecausethebankofJapan'smassiveintervention,makewidelyexpectedafurtherriseintheyen.OnJuly21,2005,thepeople'sbankofChinaannouncedtheexchangeratereforminthepressure.TheRMBexchangeratenolongersinglepegtothedollar,butabasketofmonetarypolicy,thusformingamoreflexibleRMBexchangeratemechanism.ByMay2007,theyuanhasrisenbymorethan5.94%.Widelyexpectedfurtherrenminbiappreciation.SimilarEffectsofFloatingExchangeRatesFirstisinflationsituation:1974,Japan'sconsumerpriceindexCPIat24.5%,is11.0%overthesameperiodtheUnitedStates.Chinaisnowfacedwiththeproblemofinflation.Second,thestockrose,housepricesrose.In1987,Tokyostockannualgrowthrateashighas40%;Realestateevenmorethan90%.ChinafromDecember31,2005,thestocksoaredfrom1161to1161onJuly26,4345points,up274.2%.Housepricesrose50%inthefirsthalfof2007,Shanghai,shenzhenpropertypricesrose100%Theaboveanalysiswecanseethesimilaritiesbetweenyuanandtheyen.Whiletheyuanisstillfacedwiththeappreciationpressure,housepricesarestillrising.Althoughhousepricesmaybearigiddemand,butdoesnotexcludetheeconomicbubble.Tothis,cantheeconomicimpactofexchangeratechangefromJapantotheanalysis,getsomeexperienceandenlightenment.EXPERIENCEANDENLIGHTENMENTTransitionPressureTotransformtheexternalpressureforpromotingindustrialcompetitivepower.LookfromJapan'sexperience,thecompetitivenessofJapaneseindustryincreaseinlargelythankstotheJapaneseyenappreciationandthejapan-americantradefrictionpressure.Underthepressure,theJapaneseenterprisecohesion,crisisawarenesstoanall-timehigh,throughthepromotionofthecompetitivenessoftheenterprisestoovercomethecrisis.EnterprisesinourcountryshoulddrawlessonsfromtheexperienceofJapanesecompanies,seizethechanceintheappreciationoftherenminbi,combinedenterprisealltheelements,fromprofoundchangesonthesystemandmechanism,strengtheningthevitalityofenterprises,reduceconsumption,improvelaborproductivity,profitability,marketdevelopmentandproductinnovationability,maketheenterprisethecompetitiveabilityunceasinglystrengthens.StabilityoftheExchangeRateCurrently,therenminbiwhilefacingthemainpressurefromU.S.demandcontinuestorise,butunlikeJapan,Chinaineconomy,theindustrialcompetitiveness,internationalcurrencystatusisfarfromtheJapanoncewas.Inadditiontotheinternationalpaymentsurplusandforeignexchangereservesincreasefortheappreciationoftherenminbiwhocryout,otherwisedon'