20230907-美国可以在绿色科技领域扭转中国领先的局面 The United States Can Flip the Script on China in Green Tech

2023/9/7TheUnitedStatesCanFliptheScriptonChinainGreenTech-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace

TheUnitedStatesCanFliptheScriptonChinainGreenTech

MattSheehan

September06,2023

Commentary

WhileU.S.-Chinageopoliticalcompetitionisdividingtheworld,U.S.-Chinaclimatecooperationis

fracturingtheclimatemovement.Manyinternationallymindedclimateadvocatesarguethat

cooperation

betweenWashingtonandBeijingisessentialtolimitingthedestructionwroughtbyawarmingplanet.

Otherscounterthatthe

fiercelycompetitivedynamic

willactually

acceleratedecarbonization

,withbothcountriesracingtooutdoeachotherinclimatecommitmentsandgreentechnology.

Buttherearewaysforwardthatcancapturepositiveoutcomesfrombothcooperationandcompetition.Todothat,wecanlearnfromthetangledtiesbetweenCalifornia’sandChina’sinformationtechnology

ecosystems.TheGoldenStateandtheMiddleKingdomhavelongbeenlockedinaparadoxical

relationshiponinformationtechnology:theirmarketshavebeenisolated,buttheirecosystemshavebeendeeplyintertwined.Thatuniquebalancedroveforwardinnovationinbothcountries,whilealsohelping

Chinacatchuptothegloballeaders.

Now,theUnitedStateshasachancetoflipthatscriptinlow-carbontechnology,leveragingdeep

ecosystemconnectionstocatchupwithChinainlow-carbontechnologieswhereChinesefirmsare

dominant

,whilealsoacceleratinginnovationglobally.AndCaliforniahasaleadingroletoplayinthatprocess.

WhenChina’sGreatFirewallblockedmostU.S.internetplatforms,Americanpoliticiansandtechleaders

predictedthatChinesetechnologywouldwitherinisolation.Butinstead,itblossomed.Chinesestart-ups

filledthevacuumleftbytheAmericangiants,turningtheChineseinternetintoakindofparalleltech

universe.Thecountry’sowninternetjuggernautsbecamesomeofthemostprofitablecompaniesinthe

world.TikTokcaughtfireglobally,forcingitscompetitorsinCaliforniatoredesigntheirproducts.

HowdidChinamanagetoturbochargesuchanisolatedecosystem?ThekeywasthatalthoughmanyforeignproductswereblockedinChina,theUnitedStates’andChina’secosystemsremaineddeeplyconnectedthroughtheflowofpeople,money,andideas.

Californiawasgroundzeroformuchofthisengagement.Chineseinvestorsandtechgiantssetup

branchesinSiliconValleytotrackemergingtrends.SiliconValleyfirmsreturnedthefavor,opening

researchlabsinChinatodrawonlocaltalent.ChinesestudentspouredintoCaliforniauniversities,withmanyremainingintheUnitedStatesto

contribute

tocutting-edgeresearchandothersreturninghometo

cross-pollinateChina’stechecosystem

.Thisalchemydroveinnovationinbothcountriesandhelped

ChinaclosethegapwithmoreadvancedAmericanfirms.

Whatcanthesedynamicsteachusaboutthewayforwardonclimatetechnology?Whengeopolitics

dividecountriesandmarkets,maintainingdeeplyintertwinedecosystemscanaccelerateinnovationandhelpthelaggingcountry—inthiscase,theU.S.—catchuptotheleader.

TheurgencyoftheenergytransitionshouldcautionU.S.policymakersagainstblockingChinesegreentechnologythewayChinablockedU.S.internetcompanies.Producingwindturbinesatscaleisafar

morephysicallydemandingprocessthancreatingasocialmediaapp,andinmanycasestheUnited

StateswillneedtoimportproductsfromChinatoaccelerateitsenergytransition.Butwhenpoliticsgets

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inthewayoftrade—suchaswitharecent

expansionoftariffs

onChinese-madesolarpanels—Americanscanstillgetcreativeandleveragegrassrootsconnectionstomakethebestofit.

Thisdynamicisalreadyplayingoutinbatteriesforelectricvehicles.Chinaisthedominantglobalsupplierandinnovatorforlithiumbatteries,andit’salsohometo

keyresearchclusters

fornext-generationbatterytechnologies.China’sworld-leadingbatterycompanyCATLhadplannedtoannouncetheopeningofa

batteryfactoryintheUnitedStateslastsummerbutbackedoffduetoescalatingU.S.-ChinatensionsoverTaiwan.

Instead,CATLislicensingitsbatterytechnologytoFordMotorforuseatanewbatteryfactorytobebuiltinMichigan.Thefactorywillbe100percentownedbyFord,withAmericanengineersgainingexperienceworkingonnewbatterychemistriesperfectedinChina.ThefactoryisonU.S.soilduetolastyear’s

InflationReductionAct,whichhas“BuyAmerican”provisionsthattieelectricvehiclesubsidiesto

Americanmanufacturing.Inthatway,thedealisalmostamirrorimageofhowChinausedU.S.firmstoupgradeitsowntechecosystem:requiringlocalmanufacturing,workertraining,andtechnologytransfers.

TheplaybookissofamiliarthatChineseregulatorsare

reportedlyscrutinizing

thedealtoensureitdoesn’tgiveawaytoomuchcoretechnology.

ButeventhiskindofwinforU.S.manufacturinghasdrawntheireofsomeAmericanpoliticians.VirginiaGovernorGlenYoungkinwithdrewhisstate’sbidfortheFordfactory,callingita“

frontforChina

,”and

SenatorMarcoRubiointroducedlegislationto

blocktaxcredits

fromgoingtoAmericanbatteriesmadeusingChinesetechnology.Versionsofthisdynamicwillalmostcertainlyplayoutinotherstatesand

municipalitiesacrossthecountryintheyearsahead.

Inthatenvironment,Californiahasakeyroletoplay.Thestatehaslongbeenthecenterofsubnational

climatediplomacywithChina.LastmonthCaliforniatransportationleaders

signedanagreement

withthe

provinceofHainan,whichhaspledgedto

eliminatefossilfuelvehicles

by2030,onexchanging

informationandbestpracticesforacceleratingtransportationdecarbonization.Equallyifnotmore

importantaretheecosystem-levelconnectionsbetweenresearchersandcompaniesworkingonlow-

carbontechnology.ManyofthekeyactorsareinCalifornia’suniversities,start-ups,andlocal

governments.CaliforniaremainsthetopdestinationforChinesestudents,withnearly

one-quarter

ofallengineeringPhDsintheUniversityofCaliforniasystemhailingfromChina.Researchcollaborations

forgedbythisgroupwillhelpseedlow-carbontechnologiesinbothcountries.Cross-borderventurecapitalfirmsinSanFranciscoandBeijingshouldcontinuedrawinglessonsandfundinglow-carbonproductsinbothlocales.AndCaliforniamayorsandstateofficialsshouldcontinueforgingtiesondecarbonizationwiththeircounterpartsinChina.

RelatedanalysisfromCarnegie

HowChinaBecameanInnovationPowerhouse

Alloftheseground-uptieswillbeimpactedbyanincreasinglyconfrontationalU.S.-Chinarelationship.

AccesstomarketsandtheflowofpeopleandinvestmentbetweenCaliforniaandChinawillbeinfluencedbypoliciesinbothWashingtonandBeijing.Butwithinthatconstrictiveenvironment,Californiansstillhaveroomtomakeadifference.

Doingthiswilltakecourageandcreativity.ItrequiresrecognizingwheretheUnitedStatescanlearnfromChinainlow-carbontechnologiesandthengettingcreativeinhowtheU.S.fostersitsowncleantech

ecosystem.Luckily,Americanshaveaplaybookforthatkindofatechnologyrelationship,andalltheyneedtodoisreversetheroles.

Carnegiedoesnottakeinstitutionalpositionsonpublicpolicyissues;theviewsrepresentedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofCarnegie,itsstaff,oritstrustees.

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