中国房地产行业：在销售复苏的情况下国有企业继续大放异彩（英译中）

ESEARCH在销售复苏的情况下，国有企业继续大放异彩销售环比回升。拥有丰富和优质土地储备的国有企业应该是主要受益摩根斯坦利亚洲有限公司++8523963-0385+8523963-2567+8522848-5497+8522848-7117亚太地区2M优先顺序20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120227M2320102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120227M232,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,00020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120227M2320102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120227M232,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-(mn平方米)YTD总销售量YTDYTD总销售量y-y(Rmbbn)30%20,00030%18,00020%16,00020%14,00012,0000%10,0000%8,000-10%6,000-10%4,000-20%2,000-30%--30%总销售价值YTDYTD总销售价值y-y40%30%20%0%-10%-20%-30%摩根斯坦利研究34M资料来源:Beike,摩根斯坦利Research100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-下平向上2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-2023-02020303080908090102030203050607050607080804040505060607070404资料来源:Beike,摩根斯坦利Research销售Vo鲁姆销售V价值新Startsarts完成REI季度Y-Y季度Y-Y季度YY-Y季度Y-Y季度Y-Y(百平方米)(%)（十亿元人民(%)(百平方米)(%)(%)(百平方米)（十亿元人民(%)1Q2136063.8%3,83888.5%36228.2%2,75825.6%2Q2152611.0%5,45517.2%651-6.1%4,4609.3%3Q21417-12.5%4,186-14.1%517-17.4%4,039-0.8%4Q21491-16.8%4,714-18.7%460-28.6%5043,503-7.7%1Q22305-15.3%2,934-23.5%299-17.4%2,7570.0%2Q22324-38.5%3,306-39.4%360-44.7%3,600-19.3%3Q22296-28.9%3,146-24.9%281-45.6%3,280-18.8%4Q22314-36.1%3,205-32.0%256-44.3%4512,730-22.1%1Q23299-1.8%3,0554.1%241-19.2%2,597-5.8%2Q23296-8.6%3,255-1.6%258-28.5%3,258-9.5%3Q23E237-20.0%2,548-19.0%-30.0%2,821-14.0%4Q23E301-4.0%3,108-3.0%205-20.0%5192,457-10.0%销售Vo鲁姆销售V价值新Startsarts完成REIYTDY-YYTDY-YYTDYY-YYTDY-YYTDY-Y(百平方米)(%)（十亿元人民(%)(百平方米)(%)(%)(百平方米)(%)（十亿元人民(%)3M2136063.8%3,83888.5%36228.2%22.9%2,75825.6%6M2188627.7%9,29338.9%1,0133.8%36525.7%7,21815.0%9M211,30311.3%13,47916.6%1,529-4.5%51023.4%11,2578.8%2021A1,79418,1934.8%1,989-11.4%-11.4%1,01411.2%14,7604.4%3M22305-15.3%2,934-23.5%299-17.4%-11.4%2,7570.0%6M22628-29.1%6,241-32.8%659-34.9%285-21.9%6,357-11.9%9M22925-29.0%9,386-30.4%940-38.5%407-20.3%9,637-14.4%2022A1,239-31.0%12,591-30.8%1,196-39.9%-39.9%858-15.4%12,367-16.2%3M23299-1.8%3,0554.1%241-19.2%14.7%2,597-5.8%6M23595-5.3%6,309499-24.3%33919.0%5,855-7.9%9M23E832-10.0%8,857-5.6%696-26.0%49120.8%8,676-10.0%2023E1,133-8.5%11,966-5.0%901-24.7%-24.7%1,01017.7%11,133-10.0%前30名（attri)前30名（attri) 43%44%45%摩根斯坦利研究56M现金现金/ST债务1H232021A1H222022A1H232021A1H222022A1H2359%0.770.570.350.33黄色黄色黄色黄色NA0.080.030.050.03红色红色红色红色80%1.021.070.620.70绿色绿色绿色黄色/2.621.61//绿色绿色//37%2.132.422.121.78绿色绿色绿色绿色36%2.912.972.782.37绿色绿色绿色绿色50%1.861.691.370.93黄色黄色黄色橙色26%1.961.981.562.20绿色绿色绿色绿色NA0.010.010.01/红色红色红色/54%1.561.541.281.10绿色绿色绿色绿色69%2.132.302.642.17绿色黄色黄色黄色192%0.100.030.050.04红色红色红色红色75%1.241.171.401.85绿色绿色绿色绿色602%0.030.030.020.01红色红色红色红色244%0.380.230.150.02橙色橙色橙色红色159%0.680.260.230.23橙色红色红色红色57%6.084.043.491.92绿色绿色绿色绿色40%1.711.731.591.49黄色黄色黄色绿色62%2.632.042.162.41绿色绿色绿色绿色80%0.881.010.490.68黄色绿色绿色黄色123%0.520.540.240.16黄色黄色黄色红色42%1.551.480.690.90绿色绿色绿色黄色48%1.221.200.630.81黄色绿色绿色黄色70%0.570.360.170.16黄色黄色黄色黄色373%0.440.230.120.11红色红色红色红色/1.160.800.12/绿色橙色橙色/413%0.060.050.050.03红色红色红色红色53%1.671.420.971.30绿色绿色绿色绿色289%1.240.340.080.09黄色红色红色红色50%2.332.132.032.54绿色绿色绿色绿色53%1.100.971.392.59绿色黄色黄色绿色356%1.030.160.110.10绿色橙色橙色红色349%0.430.100.060.05橙色红色红色红色28%1.041.100.820.66黄色黄色黄色橙色144%0.680.760.480.42橙色橙色橙色红色69%1.101.010.550.691H232021A1H222022A66%51%48%57%112%NANANA67%71%80%80%/63%77%/61%33%44%40%50%31%39%43%74%45%48%40%58%24%31%35%/NANANA63%55%58%52%71%49%67%63%81%130%146%171%68%63%65%69%89%202%313%364%82%79%93%162%80%82%129%123%61%47%55%58%68%46%45%44%65%55%64%64%67%77%75%82%71%66%89%107%66%37%39%44%66%50%48%51%65%59%55%66%86%166%232%302%/85%105%183%91%203%267%302%69%28%42%60%87%79%106%206%67%30%36%44%66%47%60%63%87%94%111%191%86%86%148%295%72%35%24%32%86%87%76%108%68%59%65%65%1H222022A63%107%67%67%61%54%72%59%157%67%72%77%67%83%71%72%67%70%66%68%67%67%67%62%81%68%86%68%71%68%69%68%74%71%79%68%股票报价敏捷3383香港澳源3883香港中国SCE1966香港CFI884HKCMSK001979CHCOLI688HK碧桂园2007香港华润置地1109香港恒大3333香港Gemdale600383CH绿城3900香港GZR&F2777香港金茂817香港佳兆业1638香港KWG1813香港洛根3380香港龙湖960香港美的RE3990香港Poly600048CHPowerlong1238HKRonshine3301HKSeazenA601155CHSeazenH1030香港上海世茂600823CH世茂813香港远洋3377HKSunacSZ投资次数万科H越秀禹州Zhenro中梁中南中位数1918香港604香港1233香港2202香港123香港1628香港6158香港2772香港000961CH67%104%66%69%60%53%74%59%145%68%70%76%67%76%71%70%67%72%68%69%64%70%70%63%77%67%84%63%74%68%68%68%74%74%81%69%66%111%65%/61%53%70%58%157%65%70%79%68%84%77%76%64%68%68%68%70%68%67%65%84%76%88%68%84%68%68%78%84%72%83%69%净资产负债率负债/资产Summary2021A-（百平方米）300-M-（百平方米）300-20172018201920202017201820192020 合同销售额（十亿元人民币）合同销售额（十亿元人民币）502.8534.9457.3-6%摩根斯坦利研究78MMMMorganstanleyM率摩根斯坦利研究9Stock敏捷碧桂园CMSKCOLICR土地Gemdale金茂KWG龙湖PolySeazenASeazenH万科HTicker3383香港2007香港001979CH688香港1109香港600383CH817香港1813香港960香港600048CH601155CH1030香港2202香港收入y-y变化收入y-y变化2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E20252020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H232020A2021A2023E2024E1H221H232022A2025E-13%-16% 7% 3% 9%-13%-16% 7% 3% 9%-12% 3% 4% 4% 4%-10%-10%-3%7%-25% 7% 6% -8% 3% 3% -1% 8%-12%-12%-24%-8% -6% -4% 7%14% -8% 10%-15% 2% 0%0%-12%-26%-18%14%-26% -2%21% -8%-44%12% -1%-31%-31%33%-5%33%14%22%33%39%19%22% 3%69%68%-37%39%-11%-14% 0%31% -7%-12%-35%24% -2%-2%-3%-18%-31%29% -4% -1%-18% -35%56%23%-46%-46%24%80,245462,856129,621185,790179,58783,65760,05429,742184,547243,095145,475146,119419,11253,144305,487186,666194,655250,191101,61085,87815,217211,477310,701101,211103,202337,65146,023256,917200,019199,573272,60489,90188,33815,894220,088324,11490,85293,164326,98973,028523,064160,643242,241212,10898,93590,06023,845223,375284,933168,232169,537452,79854,034430,371183,003180,322207,061120,03582,99113,453250,565281,017115,457116,541503,83820,002226,30951,44289,16072,97136,77526,8417,45462,044136,97841,76842,532200,89331,645162,36357,563103,78972,89428,03228,7458,47094,805110,72342,80343,352206,91649,812404,805174,925192,360235,168110,02083,61714,735213,842287,751115,024116,723445,02624%30%50%-20%21%8% 中位数22%18%-5%-2%2%3%-2%-5% 29.7%22.4%19.1%29.7%22.4%19.1%Ticker3383香港2007香港001979CH688香港1109香港600383CH817香港1813香港960香港600048CH601155CH2202香港11.8%6.5%5.3%Ticker3383香港2007香港001979CH688香港1109香港600383CH817香港1813香港960香港600048CH601155CH2202香港11.8%6.5%5.3%5.7%8.6%3.7%3.8%3.7%3.7%07.0-15.0%-4.8%-0.1%2.8%0.0%-0.2%-62.3%-17.4%-0.2%-4.8%-35.5%-29.7%15.1%-24.1%-26.2%-0.4%0.2%-20.2%15.7%-29.6%-14.8%4.0%0.0%0.0%-14.4%0.0%0.0%41.7%31.5%37.2%10.1%41.9%0.0%31.2%29.4%0.0%0.0%35.7%0.0%0.0%40.0%32.0%37.0%10.0%40.0%0.0%30.0%30.0%0.0%0.0%35.0%0.0%0.0%40.0%32.0%37.0%10.0%40.0%0.0%30.0%30.0%10.0%10.0%35.0%24.1%26.2%40.3%31.9%37.0%30.2%26.2%29.6%46.0%25.3%0.0%0.0%50.1%0.0%0.0%40.0%32.0%37.0%10.0%40.0%0.0%30.0%30.0%0.0%0.0%35.0%-8.3%0.0%0.4%0.1%2.0%0.4%48.6%-0.5%0.1%-4.8%-3.5%4.6%39.1%31.0%40.4%29.1%37.0%30.4%88.5%47.0%46.2%30.2%35.5%29.7%35.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.0%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-1.7%0.5%-0.2%-0.1%-1.9%0.0%-1.2%0.6%0.0%0.0%-0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Stock敏捷碧桂园CMSKCOLICR土地Gemdale金茂KWG龙湖PolySeazenASeazenH万科H中位数Ticker3383香港2007香港001979CH688香港1109香港600383CH817香港1813香港960香港600048CH601155CH1030香港2202香港核心收益y-y变化核心收益（百万元）核心收益y-y变化2020A2021A2022A1H221H231H221H23 2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E1H221H23-129%-78%17% 6% 6%-129%-78%17% 6% 6%-15% 2%-70% 0% 3% -9% -7%-27%-81%-1791%103%8%2% -3% -2% -7% 5%353%1122%-5%-25%-17% -9%-11%10%-12%49%-37%20% -5%-22%-18%-44%23%-19%-32%11%12% 8%-47%27%20% 4%33%26%5%-190%-1024% 9% -20% -27% -84%-1194% -24% -10%-26%-288% -90% -69% -28% 2% -34% -39%-308% 0% -33% -93% -97%-12%(3,422)(45,350) 90913,82011,270 1,395 401 (8,948) 6,59011,726 1,938 1,5658,703(2,241)(44,167) 4,62624,59929,247 5,838 2,842 (8,087)20,85218,918 3,291 2,26518,78276%-90%27%16%13% 0% 5%-37% 7% 4% 8% 7%-8%-26%-68%-62% -5% 3% 6%-26%-75% 6% -32%-34%9%8,34632,3628,12838,03424,1409,7763,2306,28918,69028,20013,0568,56440,2386,24026,9327,43333,92026,5968,6164,8273,98022,44026,82610,2457,04422,3823,8234,91083617,35010,1641,9182,5708186,55010,1492,5621,74611,7211,130 (981) 6,88330,38735,117 4,966 3,033 (1,507)22,46620,082 3,247 2,25412,601641 (9,799) 5,42526,10430,973 4,987 2,895 (2,396)20,93419,397 3,007 2,09713,7712,6122,28124,42026,9985,6962,940(8,286)22,54017,96872719,76210%-11%10%-11%-36%-1%-4%6%-15%-25%2020A2021A2022A2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H2320 5.1%4.6%8.7%5.4%9.4%6.1% 13.4%12.4% 12.8%12.4% -0.4%3.4%5.5%3.4%-9.5%6.2%3.6%3.0% 6.8%8.9%9.7%6.9%9.2%6.0% 13.5%13.0% 1.3%0.1%0.0% -0.1%-0.4% -0.3% Stock敏捷碧桂园CMSKCOLICR土地Gemdale金茂KWG龙湖PolySeazenA万科H中位数核心ROE核心净利润率资产周转率杠杆2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E2021A2023E2024E2021A2023E2024E2021A2023E2024E11.5%-29.1%-5.7%2.8%8.5%-21.7%-4.5%6.713.6%-28.4%-6.7%-0.7%5.1%0.6%-10.9%-3.2%0.270.250.290.28.8%2.7%4.7%5.3%6.4%4.6%2.6%2.9%%6.9%6.5%6.5%7.1%14.0%13.5%12.8%13.4%0.2012.1%11.4%10.5%10.3%10.8%12.5%13.0%12.4%12.4%3.713.7%8.7%8.2%6.5%6.1%8.7%4.7%5.3%4.9%0.210.290.280.260.25.04.59.7%6.2%5.4%5.3%5.3%5.4%3.5%3.4%3.4%07.29.0%-26.3%-34.5%-11.2%-7.4%16.7%-61.6%-54.9%-15.7%0.100.070.080.080.09.418.0%15.9%12.2%10.7%10.0%10.0%9.0%9.8%9.9%0.260.320.260.260.257.04.015.2%9.6%9.4%9.1%8.8%9.4%6.4%6.6%6.2%6.417.3%5.2%4.4%4.5%6.1%0.6%2.9%3.0%0.310.250.280.270.269.04.89.5%8.1%7.3%5.1%4.6%4.9%3.9%4.2%4.1%0.230.290.25.75.9%5.9%2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025ETickerStock2007香港2007香港CMSKCOLI688HK华润置地1109香港金地600383CH金茂817香港KWG1813香港龙湖960香港1030香港2202香港SeazenASeazenH万科H中位数中位数36.2%29.9%30.3%30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%0.1%-2.5%-....摩根斯坦利研究11M54%53%54%46%49%37%43%44%45%41%41%37%M6%6%6%20%21%22%23%24%25%24%23%23%24%24%23%23%24%45%48%46%44%43%41%40%38%摩根斯坦利研究112012-012012-042012-072012-102013-012013-042013-072013-102014-012014-042014-072014-102015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07（百万美元)2012-012012-042012-072012-102013-012013-042013-072013-102014-012014-042014-072014-102015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07（百万美元) 8642(1)丰富的项目启动和优质的土地储备（在一线和二线城市有大量风险敞口）支持了比同行更强劲的合同销;(2)积极的土地购买和强大的资产负债表应增强市场整合(4)强大的母公司支持和多元化的土地储备渠道可以维持优质的5.0x资料来源:彭博社,company数据,摩根斯坦利Researcha.估计。Note:Pricesasof市场关闭上九月52023.P/平均+1SD+1SD:8.71平均值：-1SD:6.46MBMBB摩根斯坦利研究-MHKDHKDHKDHKD共识（十亿元人民币）Exhibit3Summaryof额定值,PTandNAV变更资料来源:Company数据,彭博社,摩根斯坦利研究。Note:Pricesasof市场关闭上九月52023核心利润核心利润（十亿元人民币）资料来源:Company数据,彭博社,摩根斯坦利Research每股收益（人民币）每股收益（旧）GPM（旧）//////////////////// 摩根斯坦利研究15KWGLongforPolyASeazenASeazenH万科A万科HKWGLongforPolyASeazenASeazenH万科A万科H1813.HK0960.HK600048.SS60155.SS1030.HK000002.SZ2202.HKCompanyTicker收益变动的主要原因CompanyTicker敏捷COLI华润土地金地金茂3383.HK2007.HK001979.敏捷COLI华润土地金地金茂3383.HK2007.HK001979.SZ0888.HK1109.HK600383.SS0817.HK(2)将2023-24E的GPM削减11.0/8.6pt，以考虑降价和减值损失(1)2023-24E将收入削减9%/9%(2)2023-24E将GPM削减2.2/0.7pt（1）2025E的收入小幅削减3%（2）2023-25E的GPM削减0.6/3.0/2.7pt(2)2023E的GPM减少1.3pt，2024E的GPM略有提高(1)2023-25E将收入削减1%/2%/16%(2)2023-25E的GPM略微削减0.3/0.3/0.4pt（1）将2023-25E的收入削减3％/4％/62(1)2023-24E的收入减少了52%/54%，因为2023E的预售减少了52%(2)将2023-24E的GPM削减16.2/9.8pt，以考虑降价和减值损失（1）将2023-25E的收入削减7％/6％/32(1)2023-24E将收入削减12%/4%(2)2023-24E将GPM削减1.7/1.9pt（1）将2023-24E的收入削减2％/12)将2023-25E的GPM削减1.3/1.7/2.3（1）由于2023E预售削减37%，2023-24E的收入削减23%/29%(1)2025E将收入削减11%(2)2025E的GPM小幅提高0.2pt(1)2025E将收入削减11%(2)2025E的GPM小幅提高0.2pt3383.3383.HK（1）销售疲软2）GPM压缩力度加大3）人民币和流动性压力减弱4）配售影响没有实质性变化（最001979.SZ（1）销售走强2）GPM压缩力度加大3）最新的土地储备4）配售影响0888.HK（1）销售走强2）GPM压缩力度加大3）最新的土地储备4）人民币走弱1109.HK（1）销售走强2）GPM压缩力度加大3）租金收入增强4）最新土地储备5）人民币走弱600383.SS（1）GPM压缩更强2）最新土地储备3）资产净值折扣更高0817.HK（1）GPM压缩更强2）最新的土地储备3）人民币走弱1813.HK（1）销售疲软2）GPM压缩力度加大3）人民币和流动性压力减弱0960.HK（1）GPM压缩更强2）租金收入更强3）最新的土地储备4）人民币走弱600048.SS（1）销售强劲2）GPM压缩力度加大3）最新的土地储备60155.SS（1）销售疲软2）GPM压缩增强3）人民币和流动性压力减弱1030.HK（1）销售疲软2）GPM压缩力度加大3）人民币和流动性压力减弱000002.SZ（1）销售疲软2）GPM压缩力度加大3）最新土地储备2202.HK（1）销售疲软2）GPM压缩力度加大3）最新的土地储备4）人民币走弱MCompanyTickerLandbankExecutionScale988787667667369998867769688888888677796888877777668569889999699786999997767687777755766535摩根斯坦利研究17M2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EM2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E损益表2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E收入销售成本毛利润SG&A其他业务收入/支出营业利润73,028(54,007)19,021(7,106)5,11317,02854,034(53,033)1,001(5,538)458(4,079)49,812(45,136)4,676(4,533)(1,100)(957)53,144(44,600)8,543(4,517)-4,02646,023(36,220)9,802(4,395)-5,407 资产负债表2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E投资性房地产11,515正在开发的物业和土地21,275在联营公司和JCEs中的权益31,304贸易、贷款和其他应收款-其他非流动资产21,930非流动资产98,6999,36819,91928,77413,828-21,38093,2699,40619,91929,44713,828-21,38093,9809,48419,91930,15813,828-21,38094,7699,57919,91930,01313,828-21,38094,718利息支出(2,302)(393)(358)(375)(410)已完成待售物业16,30019,60325,31025,65225,169利息收入819393225222229正在开发的物业和土地89,37569,18055,04748,09453,550联营公司和JCEs的业绩份额794(757)570848524贸易和其他应收款和预付款62,55265,85259,70159,70159,701其他营业外收入/支出241203---应收关联方款项-----税前特殊项目317(5,738)387895其他流动资产11,2149,3879,3879,3879,387税前利润16,897(10,372)(481)4,7995,846限制性现金和存款15,6187,6288,3918,3918,391现金及现金等价物22,8038,46311,79820,24724,347所得税(7,799)(3,001)(496)(2,828)(3,165)流动资产217,861180,113169,635171,473180,546税后特殊项目-----总资产316,560273,382263,615266,242275,264少数股东权益前利润9,098(13,373)(977)1,9712,680预售保证金44,58245,87046,10848,28656,034少数股东权益1,402613231266475应计、贸易和其他应付款87,35780,96077,95277,95277,952报告的永续利息后净利润6,712(14,981)(2,212)7001,201应付关联方款项-----其他流动负债1,9241,3981,3981,3981,398永续利息前核心净利润7,224(10,757)(1,236)1,6462,135银行及其他借款29,58024,02724,02724,02724,027永续利息后的核心净利润6,240(11,752)(2,241)6411,130流动负债163,445152,255149,485151,663159,411永续利息后的核心每股收益1.59(2.62)(0.44)0.130.22现金流量表净利润非现金调整营运资金变动已付利息投资收益已缴税款经营现金流净额处置（购买）子公司联营公司和JCE的处置（购买）处置（采购）PP&E应收他人贷款的垫款(偿还)其他投资现金流投资现金流净额债务融资永续融资股权融资应收关联方贷款的垫款(偿还)子公司少数股东支付的股利和实收资本的分配其他融资现金流净融资现金流其他现金流量现金及现金等价物增加结转现金现金余额6,7127,372(649)(6,799)-(5,706)930(1,441)(9,729)(680)(1,945)(2,489)(16,284)(9,284)(1,625)-2,03211,730(3,560)(3,039)(3,747)(23)(19,123)41,92622,803(14,981)16,52918,396(4,641)-(2,888)12,4141,1051,458(221)1,594(281)3,655(25,584)(786)1,284(2,936)(4,890)-2,612(30,300)(109)(14,340)22,8038,463(2,212)1,55611,805(133)-(496)10,521-(103)(1,306)-0(1,408)(5,319)-780-(476)--(5,015)(763)3,3358,46311,7987003,6278,789(153)-(2,828)10,135-(1,306)--(1,168)----(518)--(518)-8,44911,79820,2471,2014,5072,775(180)-(3,165)5,138-669(1,306)-0(636)----(401)--(401)-4,10020,24724,347银行和其他借款54,294其他非流动负债9,390非流动负债63,684负债总额227,128股本和溢价7,456永续债券-留存收益46,784归属权益54,239永续债券13015少数股东权益22,177总股票89,43135,4599,94145,400197,6559,269-31,17840,44613,22422,05675,72730,1409,94140,081189,56610,049-28,96539,01413,22421,81174,04930,1409,94140,081191,74410,049-29,66539,71413,22421,55974,49730,1409,94140,081199,49310,049-30,86640,91513,22421,63275,772 关键比率2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E毛利率26.0%永续利息后核心净利润率8.5%总股本净资产负债率-永续调整76.5%可归属权益净资产负债率-永续调整107.8%永续利息后的核心每股收益1.59市盈率0.5基准点13.85股息支付率24%DPS0.41股息率50.2%-21.7%90.6%140.0%(2.62)(0.3)9.030.10%-0.0%9.4%-4.5%77.6%121.0%(0.44)(1.9)7.730.10%-0.0%16.1%63.2%97.6%70.10%-0.0%21.3%2.5%55.4%84.7%10.10%-0.0%摩根斯坦利研究19价格目标港币0.78元港币0.78港币0.78元风险奖励图表0超重论文...13%超重38%等重50%体重不足BULLCASEHK$1.25基本情况元熊壳Bull-case2023e资产净值的20%折扣基本案例2023e资产净值的50%折扣熊案2023e资产净值的80%折扣M关键收益输入投资驱动全球收入暴露所有权定位MS估计与同意入摩根斯坦利研究