230811-食品饮料行业2023年中报业绩前瞻-饮料篇

食品饮料行业2023年中报业绩前瞻——饮料篇323H1E净利润同比增速...23H1E净利润同比增速... 饮料行业代表企业23H1预计业绩增速情况23H1E营收同比增速..进入Q2，消费复苏强度减弱进入Q2，消费复苏强度减弱0数据来源：国家统计局2020-2023H1社会消费品零售总额：当月同比（%）4“五一”假期旅游收入增长不及出游人次增长“五一”假期旅游收入增长不及出游人次增长“五一”假期国内旅游收入及人均消费数据来源：文化和旅游部，《2023年五一出游数据报告》注：2019年国内旅游收入数据按可比口径进行调整5必选类消费已基本恢复，可选类消费恢复空间仍较大必选类消费已基本恢复，可选类消费恢复空间仍较大数据来源：国家统计局6限额以上企业不同类别消费品销售同比增速可选类消费品必选类消费品2022年7月-2023年6月全国白酒产量及增长情况-3.2%-6.4%-4.5%-8.6%-8.5%-3.7%-4.5%-8.6%-8.5%-13.3%-12.3%-13.3%-14.7%-29.2%-28.1%数据来源：中商产业研究增长率（%）7。23Q123Q2E20.6%21.0%15.9%13.0%15.7%18.0%29.9%50.2%27.0%23H1E20.8%12.4%15.4%24.0%21.7%高端酒回款动销保持稳健，23H1预计实现双位数增长。23Q123Q2E20.6%21.0%15.9%13.0%15.7%18.0%29.9%50.2%27.0%23H1E20.8%12.4%15.4%24.0%21.7%高端酒回款动销保持稳健，23H1预计实现双位数增长营收23Q123Q2E23H1E387.6308.2695.8311.4463.267.6126.863.3190.176.165.8净利润23Q123Q2E23H1E207.9151.9359.848.357.722.580.248.219.667.833.770.9数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测注：红色斜体字代表公司已披露上半年经营数据或中报营收23Q123Q2E20.0%21.7%13.0%11.0%15.5%15.0%20.4%31.8%20.6%23.0%白酒板块2023上半年业绩前瞻（部分）白酒行业贵州茅台五粮液洋河股份山西汾酒泸州老窖净利润23H1E23H1E20.8%15.1%16.3%35.2%28.1%923Q2E25.2%29.2%-56.0%508.9%高端酒回款动销保持稳健，23H1预计实现双位数增长923Q2E25.2%29.2%-56.0%508.9%高端酒回款动销保持稳健，23H1预计实现双位数增长23Q2E23Q2E30.6%28.5%12.68.020.52.2%-26.4%1.60.42.023Q124.8%27.3%7.3%21.3%-39.7%白酒板块2023上半年业绩前瞻（部分）白酒行业古井贡酒今世缘舍得酒业口子窖水井坊数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测注：红色斜体字代表公司已披露上半年经营数据或中报38.08.523Q2E23Q2E21.759.715.36.715.323H1E23H1E36.1%26.7%15.6%14.7%-45.2%26.6%20.8%26.6%18.2%20.9%18.2%20.8%17.4%13.3%9.1%17.4%13.3%11.3%11.7%12.4%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，12.4%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测21.6%19.4% 19.4% 13.3%12.2%31.3%16.3%14.4%14.4%15.1%15.1%22.0%24.8%21.7%-4.7%39.8%30.9%28.1%17.1%2019H12020H12021H12022数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测25.2%22.0%24.8%21.7%-4.7%39.8%30.9%28.1%17.1%2019H12020H12021H12022数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测25.2%31.2%250100.0%预计青花汾酒全系列同比增长35%以上。腰部产品老白汾、巴拿马受益于大众消费与宴席回补，预增速25%以上费用端，公司提升清香消费群体培育深度，持续投放增强品牌知名度，产品高端化+渠道全国化目标明确35.2%41.5%2019H12020H12021H12022H12分产品看，玻汾配额前置出货加快，贡献增量，献礼版玻汾积极铺市，产品提价趋势明显。受益于省内消费需求推动，青花上半年高增势头不减，带动产品结构持续优化，117.5%26.3%33.1%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测0026.5%22.3%24.0%7.8%75.5%26.5%22.3%24.0%7.8%75.5%50.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0%-10>4.8%-3.2%21.7%21.8%2019H12020H12021H1202211.5%4.8%-3.2%21.7%21.8%2019H12020H12021H1202211.5%洋河股份：重点发力宴席消费，渠道健康度明显提升2019H1-2023H1E洋河股份营收及其增速2019H1数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测10.0%15.8%-16.1%15.4%15.4%6.3%30.9%29.4%28.5%21.2%25.2%20.7%-4.7%-4.9%30.9%29.4%28.5%21.2%25.2%20.7%-4.7%-4.9%2019H1-2023H1E今世缘营收及其增速32.2%2019H12020H12021H12019H12020H12021H1数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测34.5%39.9%36.1%-17.9%2019H12020H12021H120239.2%古井贡酒：结构升级费用优化，净利率有望持续提升34.5%39.9%36.1%-17.9%2019H12020H12021H120239.2%古井贡酒：结构升级费用优化，净利率有望持续提升2019H1-2023H1E古井贡酒营收及其增速2019H1-2023H1E古井贡酒净利润及其增速数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测25.2%25.2%-7.8%-7.8%27.0%27.0%28.5%28.5%23.6%23.6%头部企业渠道韧性及业绩确定性较强，下半年旺季，头部企业渠道韧性及业绩确定性较强，下半年旺季，需求改善方向明确>整体来看，高端和地产酒品牌动销及回款反馈较好，部分品牌预计提前完成全年增长目标。高端酒在去年上半年经济环境中并未有较大幅度影响，整体保持稳健，预计今年全年仍将实现稳定增长>放开后二三线城市及乡镇的送礼场景预计火爆，地产酒的消费场景仍将火热，进一步带来库存消化，同时保持全年进度顺利推进。尤其是宴席消费场景产品线的高端次高端品牌，如老窖特曲、汾酒目前库存良性动销上升趋势明显，预计表现有望超预期-1.2%7.0%1.6%啤酒板块：产量增长放缓，行业高端化仍是主旋律，成本缓和推动利润提高-1.2%7.0%1.6%啤酒板块：产量增长放缓，行业高端化仍是主旋律，成本缓和推动利润提高数据来源：国家统计局20.4%21.1%2023年1-6月啤酒产量23Q2E//-1.7%-13.9%啤酒代表企业中报业绩前瞻23Q2E//-1.7%-13.9%啤酒代表企业中报业绩前瞻23Q2E/7.9%6.2%/3.023Q2E/2.85.8啤酒行业华润啤酒青岛啤酒重庆啤酒燕京啤酒百威亚太数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测注：红色斜体字代表公司已披露上半年经营数据或中报，华润使用核心净利润，百威单位为美元2023Q1//17.023Q2E23Q2E/19.636.723H1E23H1E22.6%24.7%10.0%7.0%7.2%-7.5%24.1%22.6%% -11.4%12.8%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测106.4%2019H12020H12021H12019H12020H110.0%7.0%7.2%-7.5%24.1%22.6%% -11.4%12.8%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测106.4%2019H12020H12021H12019H12020H12116.6%25.4%12.2%24.9%9.2%5.4%13.5%-5.3%2019H12020H12021H12022H1202216.6%25.4%12.2%24.9%9.2%5.4%13.5%-5.3%2019H12020H12021H12022H1202217.8%30.8%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测2019H12020H12019H1-2023H1E青岛啤酒营收及其增速2019H1-308.0%4.0%11.2%6.4%-4.4%14.3%17.7%4.2%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测148.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H1308.0%4.0%11.2%6.4%-4.4%14.3%17.7%4.2%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测148.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H1重庆啤酒：高端化进程领先，营收、净利润在高基数下持续增长 23>需求呈现复苏走弱，产品结构优化及推动高端化进程助力龙头企业营收平稳增长，4-6月规模以上企业乳制品产量分别同增奶类生产价格指数当季值24数据来源：国家统计局2425数据来源：国家统计局25软饮板块：人流物流恢复及主要原材料价格回落，软饮板块：人流物流恢复及主要原材料价格回落，推动行业较好复苏2023年1-6月饮料产量9.5%8.9%5.0%4.8%0.5%23Q2E////44.3%49.0%乳业、软饮代表企业中报业绩前瞻23Q2E////44.3%49.0%乳业、软饮代表企业中报业绩前瞻23Q2E//30.0%27.2%//5.023Q2E//6.111.123H1E3.8%16.0%27.0%46.数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测注：红色斜体字代表公司已披露上半年经营数据或中报，蒙牛使用经营利润26乳品、软饮行业伊利股份蒙牛乳业农夫山泉东鹏饮料//24.924.923Q2E23Q2E//29.754.629.754.63.8%2019H12020H12021H12022H142.2%3.8%2019H12020H12021H12022H142.2%13.6%5.3%5.3%18.9%18.9%12.3%12.3%5.7%5.7%数据来源：Wind，公司公告，华创证券预测15.2%9.6%15.2%-1.1%2722.3%143.8%15.6%33.3%8.0%16.0%3.9%27.8%-41.8%-5.8%蒙牛乳业：资源向高端白奶倾斜，在成本压力减轻下经营利润稳步增长22.3%143.8%15.6%33.3%8.0%16.0%3.9%27.8%-41.8