万国邮政联盟-2023年静态扇区状态-邮政发展的超协同路径（英）

STATEOFTHE

POSTALSECTOR2023

AHyper-CollaborativePathtoPostalDevelopment

PublishedbytheUniversalPostalUnion(UPU)Berne,Switzerland

PrintedinSwitzerlandbytheprintingservicesoftheUPUInternationalBureau

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TITLE:StateofthePostalSector2023,

AHyper-CollaborativePathtoPostalDevelopment

ISBN:978-92-95116-32-0

DESIGN:SonjaDenovski

CONTACT:thinktank@

STATEOFTHE

POSTALSECTOR2023

AHyper-CollaborativePathtoPostalDevelopment

STATEOFTHEPOSTALSECTOR2023

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Thepostalsectorremainsacriticalelementintheglobalecosystem,transcendingborderstoconnectpeople,

businessesandgovernments.Itnotonlyfacilitates

communication,butalsoservesasthebackboneofdigitaltrade,logistics,andeveneconomicresilience.However,

thesectorisgrapplingwithamultitudeofchallenges,fromthelastingdisruptionsinducedbyglobalcrises,suchas

theCOVID-19pandemic,tothetransformativeshiftsinconsumerbehaviourusheredinbythedigitalage.Thisreportprovidesanexhaustiveexaminationofthepostalsector’sexistinglandscape,challenges,innovations,andthepotentialavenuesforfuturegrowthandresilience.

INTEGRATEDINDEXFOR

POSTALDEVELOPMENT

(2IPD):KEYFINDINGS

ANDINSIGHTS

Ourstudybeginswithanin-depthanalysisusing

the2IPD,whichservesasanindispensabletool

forunderstandingtheintricaciesofglobalpostal

development.In2023,wefindthattheworldmedian

postaldevelopmentscorehasincreased,highlighting

significantpostaldevelopmentprogressin49

countriesoutofthe172coveredinourresearch.

Wefindasignificantpositivecorrelationbetweenhigherpostaldevelopmentscoresandstrongereconomic

resilience.Countrieswithrobustpostalservices

demonstratedgreatercapacitytoabsorbtheshocksofrecentdisruptiveeventsliketheCOVID-19pandemic,andshowedsignsofquickereconomicrecovery.Thishighlightsthecompellingcaseforgovernmentsto

notonlycontinueinvestinginthepostalsector,but

alsocreateanenablingenvironmentthatcanamplify

itsbenefits,givenitsdemonstratedroleinenhancing

economicresilienceduringturbulenttimes.

Wealsofindthat–inthehypotheticalcaseofthe

completeabsenceofpostalinfrastructure–there

wouldbeamedianreductionof6.96%inacountry's

annualGDP.Thisfiguredramaticallyeclipsesthe

traditionallyciteddirectcontributionsofpostal

servicestoGDP,whichrangefrom0.5%to1.0%.

Giventheirnetworkeffects,postalservicesamplifytheirdirecteconomicimpactbyafactorofatleastseven.ThissignificantlyunderscoresthevitalroleplayedbyPostsintheirrespectiveeconomies.

Thisisaground-breakingrevelationwhichhighlightsthepotentialfortargetedinvestmentsinthepostalsectortocatalyzeeconomicgrowthandrecovery.Itelevatesthe

discussionfromoneofmereassociationtooneofdirect

influence,therebyemphasizingthecriticalrolethepostalsystemplaysinthesocio-economiclandscapeofanation.

The2IPDanalysis,however,revealsworrisomepostaldevelopmentdisparitiesbetweennations.Theseare

notmerelyservicegaps;theymanifestasconcrete

economicdisadvantagesandoverlookedchances

forinclusivegrowth.Suchdisparitieshindermany

developingnationsfromelevatingthelivingstandardsoftheirmostvulnerablecitizens,emphasizingthe

immediatenecessityforglobalpolicyinterventions.

POSTALECONOMIC

SUSTAINABILITYOUTLOOK

Letterpostincome–

awaningsource

Ourresearchpointstoasignificantdropinthepercentage

ofPosts’revenuegeneratedfromletter-postservices

–fromover50%in2005to34%in2021.Forecasts

suggestafurtherdecline,reachingapproximately29%

by2025.Withtheaccelerationofdigitalizationand

shiftsincommunicationmethods,thedecliningtrendofletter-postvolumesisundeniable,albeitshowingsignsofstabilizationinthenearfuture.

Parcelsandlogistics–

thenewfrontier

Instarkcontrast,incomefromparcelsandlogistics

hasbeenontherise,surgingfrom11%in2005to

over32%in2021.Predictionsindicateanevenhigherascent,nearing36%by2025,potentiallyovertaking

letter-postrevenues.Thecatalystsforthisshiftappeartobetheincreasingrelianceone-commerceand

AHyper-CollaborativePathtoPostalDevelopment

onlineshopping,althoughthissectoralsofacesstiff

competitionfromalternativedeliveryservices.

Postalfinancialservices–

asteadycontributor

Incomefrompostalfinancialserviceshasremainedfairlystable,hoveringaroundthe17%markovertheyears.Incountrieswithintegratedpostalfinancialnetworks,thisshareisevenhigher.Thestabilityofthisincomesourcesuggeststhatpostalfinancialservicescontinuetobearevenue-generatingstrongholdfortheindustry.

Otherproducts–declining

yetpromising

Revenuefromothermiscellaneousproductsandserviceshasdeclined,andisexpectedtoreachabout17%by2025.However,thisdipcouldbeoffsetiftheindustrymanagestofocusoninnovativedigitalpostalservices,whichare

currentlyemergingasalucrativemarket.

Globalpostalrealoperating

revenues–achallengingdynamic

Wehaveobservedafluctuatingtrendintheannual

growthratesofrealoperatingrevenues,peakingin2020duetotheCOVID-19pandemic.Althoughprojections

suggestaslightdecline,therateisexpectedtostabilizeataround2.94%by2025.

Giventhesedynamics,thepostalindustryfacesan

unprecedentedchallengeinensuringeconomic

sustainabilityamidvaryingrevenuestreams,heightenedcompetition,andinflationarypressures.Thediversificationofrevenuealonemaynotsuffice;rather,asystemic

integrationofservicesisessential.Ecommercepresentsanexcitingavenue,butitrequiresthepostalsectorto

innovate,potentiallythroughstrategiccollaborationswithdigitalplatforms,andenhancinglogisticscapabilities.

Whiletraditionalrevenuestreamslikeletterpostsare

dwindling,newavenuessuchasparceldeliveriesand

digitalservicesofferapromisingfuture.Amidstthese

shifts,economicandenvironmentalsustainability

hingesonthepostalsector'sabilitytoadapt,innovateandcollaborate.Despiteuncertainties,theoverarching

trajectoryappearspromising,especiallyiftheindustry

capitalizesonemergingtrendsandadoptsamultifacetedapproachtoservicedelivery.

INTERNATIONALPOSTAL

EXCHANGES:VOLUME

EVOLUTION,PRICING

DYNAMICS,REGULATORYCHANGESANDSERVICE

PREDICTABILITY

Nosignificantreboundin

internationalpostalvolumes

afterthepandemic

Datauptomid-June2023showsthatinternational

postaltonnageremains44.5%lowercomparedtopre-pandemiclevels,withnosignsofstrongrecovery.

Newterminalduesand

otherpolicyregimeshave

far-reachingimplications

Ouranalysisdivesdeepintothecomplexworldofterminalduesandpostalpricing.Forinstance,changesinterminalduesregimes,asseeninJuly2021,havefar-reaching

implicationsforinternationalpostagerates,affecting

bothconsumersandinternationaldigitaltradedynamics.Alteringterminalduesforaspecificdestinationcan

influenceotherdestinationsthroughelevatedinternationalpostalrates,evenifthoseflowswerenotthetargetin

theinitialterminaldueschanges.Terminalduesand

internationalpostalratesmustbeseenasanecosystem.

Furthermore,thecombinedimpactofnewU.S.and

Europeanregulationsonelectronicadvancedata(EAD)andtaxregimeshashadsignificanteffectsonvariousinternationalmailclasses.Itisclearthatregulations

nowhaveaglobalimpactwhichneedstobemanagedcoherently.

STATEOFTHEPOSTALSECTOR2023

Servicetimeshaveimproved;

reliabilityhasnot

Whiletheend-to-enddeliverytimesforinternational

postalserviceshavereturnedtopre-pandemiclevels,thepredictabilityoftheseserviceshasnot,showingincreasedvariancesindeliverytimes.Thisunpredictabilityinservicedeliverytimeshasthepotentialtoerodeconsumertrust,emphasizingtheneedforimprovingreliabilitythrough

betterinternationalpostallogisticsanddataanalytics.

Thesedisruptionsandpolicyregimechangesunderscore

thenecessityofaresilientsupplychaincapableof

adaptingtounforeseenchallenges.

TECHNOLOGICAL

INNOVATIONSANDHYPER-COLLABORATION:ANEW

PATHFORTHEUPU

RoleofAIandcollaborative

intelligence

Artificialintelligence(AI)offerstransformativecapabilitiesforthepostalsector.ThepotentialisevengreaterwhenAIsystemsareintegratedinahyper-collaborativeframeworkinvolvingmultiple,ecosystemicstakeholders.Thiskindofpartnershipcouldfacilitateoptimizedrouteing,real-time

tracking,andpersonalizedservices,significantlyenhancingoperationalefficiencyandboostingthedecarbonization

ofpostalexchanges.

Dataanalyticsandsharedinsights

Advanceddataanalyticsprovidethepostalsector

withthetoolsforpriceoptimization,routeplanning,

andconsumerbehaviourprediction.Throughhyper-

collaboration,thesedataanalyticscapabilitiescanbe

extendedtocross-industrypartners,thusamplifying

theirimpactandleadingtomoreeffectivestrategies,

particularlyfordeliveringgreeninternationalpostal

growth.

Hyper-collaborativeglobal

policyalignment

Morethanever,thereisaneedforglobalcooperationtostandardizeregulationsandoperationalinterfaces.We

recommendadoptingahyper-collaborativeapproachwhichinvolvesnotjustgovernmentsanddesignated

operatorsbutalsowiderpostalsectorstakeholders,tocreateamoreequitablepostalecosystemgroundedonfreerdataexchanges.

Investmentincollaborative

technologies

AlongsidetheadoptionofAIanddataanalytics,afocus

ontechnologiesthatenablebettercollaborationwillmakethepostalsectormoreadaptivetofuturechallenges.Ouranalysisshowsthatenhancingservicequalityisnotjustatechnicalissue,butalsoacollaborativeone.Investments

shouldbechannelledintocreatinghyper-collaborative

networkswhichcanprovidemorereliable,higher-qualitypostalservices.

Bridgingthedevelopment

gapthroughcollaboration

Targetedeffortsshouldincludeformingpartnershipsto

upliftthepostalinfrastructuresofcountrieslagginginthesector,thusprovidingthemwiththetoolstocat