AI行业市场前景及投资研究报告：AI The Coming Revolution（英文版）

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APPENDIX.2KeyTopicsWhereweareinAI

today3We’reatDay1ofAI…andridingontopofpastwaves%USTechnologyAdoption100%75%50%25%SmartphonesInternetAI19901995200020052010201520202025Source:WorldBankasof

September2023,asof

September2023,

CoatueanalysisandopinionasofNovember2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfrom4theAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.Inthefirsthalfof2023,theAIecosystemexploded!(1/2)ChatGPTweeklyuniquevisitsNVDA2QEarningsAIBasketPerformanceYTD40M30M20M10M0M$11BGPT-4Released+60%$7BYTD100GPT-3.5Released12/22

01/23

02/23

03/23

04/23

05/23

06/23StreetestimatesActualguide1/233/236/239/23Source:Bloomberg;

Coatueopinionandanalysisasof

October2023.

AIBasketrepresentsGS’sAIbasket.

Forillustrativepurposes

only.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.5Inthefirsthalfof2023,theAIecosystemexploded!(2/2)%oftrending

GithubreposinAI/MLNewAIapplicationsovertimeNumberofmodelsonHuggingFace340K+8K+60%9,0007,5006,0004,5003,0001,5000350K50%300K250K200K150K100K50K50%40%30%20%10%0%0K202120212022202320212022202320222023Source:GitHubasof

June2023,

ThereIsAnAIForTasof

September2023,

HuggingFaceasof

September2023,

andCoatueanalysisandopinionasof

September2023.

Datavisualizedbeginsin2021.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedabove

asexamplesof

theapplicablestatementsor

trends;donot

necessarilyrepresent

Coatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.6AdoptionhasbeentwiceasfastwitheachplatformshiftHalvingofpenetrationtimewithnewtechnologywaves#ofyearstoreach50%userpenetrationintheUS20Years12Years?6Years3YearsPCsInternetMobileGenAISource:MorganStanleyResearchasof

September2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

Thereisnoguaranteethat

Coatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.7AIhaspotentialtodrivetheeconomyforyearstocome#ofemployeesper$1Mofrevenue(inflationadjusted–S&P500companies)~35%ImprovementinProductivity7.8DrivenbyPC

andInternet6.45.35.15.1<3?1986200020082019TodayFuturew/AI?Source:Bloomberg,

CapitalIQ,

andCoatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

Thereisnoguaranteethat

Coatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.8We’veseenmassiveinvestmentinAICumulativefundinginprivateAIcompaniessince2020Valuationbeforepublicproductlaunch$4.0B$30B$28.2B$20B$10B$0B$1.2B$1.0B$1.0BOpenAIRaised$10B01/2001/2101/2201/2301/24SeriesBSeriesASeriesBSeriesBSource:Coatueanalysisof

Pitchbookdataasof

November2023.

Doesnot

includefundingraisedbefore1/1/2020.CompaniesincludedhereinbasedonPitchbookrounddatathatCoatuecategorizesasan“AICompany”whichmayincludethosewithAIembeddedinaproduct

ratherthanitbeingtheircorecompetency,andincludesalllabeledcompaniesinecosystem,of

whichmayincludeCoatueportfoliocompanies.

Thiscategorizationissubjectiveandfocusedon“GenAI”technologies,

andmaynot

beexhaustiveof

allcompaniesthatothersmayconstrueasGenAI.

Categorizationcouldbeimpactedatanytimeby

marketfactors,changesinlawsandotherfactors.Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedaboveasexamplesof

theapplicablestatementsor

trends;donot

necessarilyrepresentCoatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.956Coatue’sbroaderAIportfolio47StealthCo.50+In

AIPortfolioIncludingAInativecompaniesaswellasthosewithsignificantAIfeaturesand/orstrategies34StealthCo.StealthCo.1813StealthCo.4StealthCo.(Incubation)2018andearlier20192020202120222023Source:Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

Thereisnoguaranteethat

Coatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

CompaniesincludedhereinbasedoncurrentinvestmentsthatCoatuecategorizesasan“AICompany”whichmayincludethosewithAIembeddedinaproduct

ratherthanitbeingtheircorecompetency.Inaddition,

theoriginalthesisforsomeof

thesecompaniesmaynot

haveoriginallybeenabout

AI.Categorizationcouldbeimpactedatanytimeby

marketfactors,changesinlawsandotherfactors.Positionsincompaniesabovemaybeheldacrossmultiplefundsandarenot

indicativeof

theperformanceachievedinonespecificfund.

Coatuemakesnoguaranteeregardingthecompletenessof

thisinformation;maynot

representtheentire

universeof

AIcompaniesintheportfolio.

SeeCforafulllistofCoatueportfoliocompanies.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.10We’vebackedAIfoundersacrossstages#ofCoatueAIportfoliocompaniesbasedonroundwhenCoatuefirstinvested151410StealthCo.97StealthCo.StealthCo.StealthCo.StealthCo.Pre-seed/SeedSeriesASeriesBSeriesCSeriesD+Source:Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

Thereisnoguaranteethat

Coatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

CompaniesincludedhereinbasedoncurrentinvestmentsthatCoatuecategorizesasan“AICompany”whichmayincludethosewithAIembeddedinaproduct

ratherthanitbeingtheircorecompetency.Categorizationcouldbeimpactedatanytimeby

marketfactors,changesinlawsandotherfactors.Coatuemakesnoguarantee

regardingthecompletenessof

thisinformation;

maynot

representtheentireuniverseof

AIcompaniesintheportfolio.

SeeCforafulllistof

Coatueportfoliocompanies.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.11KeyTopicsAI

couldbreakthroughthehypeandimproveour

world12CoatueView:AIisnotjusthypeCharacteristicofhypecyclesCoatueviewHistoricExamples•Comparison:HistoriccycleslikefiberandcloudrepresenttwodifferentoutcomesforunderlyinginfrastructureValueAccrualValueaccrualmisalignedwithinvestment1990sFiber•

MostinvestmentinAItodayiswithinthemodellayer,butit’stooearlytodeclarewhowillbetheAImodelwinners•Comparison:Self-drivingcarsfinallyarriving,butafter15+yearsofworkCapabilitiesOverestimatingtimeline&capabilitiesoftechnology•

AIisalreadyusefulwithin~5years.Weareinearlyinningsofadoptionandexpectmodelstoimprove,butAIregulationislikelyandisachallengetoimplementwellAutonomousvehicles•Comparison:

QuantumcomputinghypewaspromisingintheorybuthasnotyetprovenwidespreadpracticalutilityValueAccrualLackofwidespreadutilityduetomaturityoftechnology•

AIalreadyprovingsignificantutilityacrossdomainsQuantumcomputingSource:Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.13ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityComparison:SomeenablingtechnologiesbecomeapublicgoodFiber

Infrastructure1990sTelco

Co’s

raised

$1.6T

of

equity&

$600B

of

debtBandwidth

costs

decreased

90%

within4

yearsMost

of

these

companies

no

longerexist

today…Source:25iqasof

September2023,

Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedaboveasexamplesof

theapplicablestatementsor

trends;donot

necessarilyrepresent

Coatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.14ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtility…WhilecloudinfrastructurebecameahugemarketCloud

Infrastructure2010sEntirely

new

computing

paradigmMost

were

already

public

companies

with

resources

to

build

out

data

centersBig

4

hyperscalers

generate

~$150B+

in

revenueannuallySource:Publicfilings,Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedaboveasexamplesoftheapplicablestatementsor

trends;

donot

necessarilyrepresentCoatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.15ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityWheredidvalueaccrueinthecloudstack?CloudStackExampleCompaniesEst.TAM%oftotalinstack140%~$260BSaaSApps22%30%8%~$140B~$200B~$50BPaaSIaaSCloud

SemisSource:(1)Notethestackisnot

anexhaustivelookatthecloudstackoverall,andmerelyisasimplifiedselectionof

categoriesthat

broadlycoverthecloudstack.DataonTAMisfromGartnerasof

April2023(includingSaaS,PaaS,andIaaScategorizations

andTAM)andCoatueanalysisandopinionof

CloudSemisasof2021.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedaboveasexamplesof

theapplicablestatementsor

trends;donot

necessarilyrepresentCoatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.16ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityInAI,fundingconcentratedinmodellayerfornowAIStackExampleCompaniesTotalfunding%oftotalinstack117%~$5BApps60%4%~$17B~$1B~$4B~$2BModelsAIOps13%6%AICloudAISemisSource:(1)Notethestackisnot

anexhaustivelookattheAIstackoverall,andmerelyisasimplifiedselectionof

categoriesthatbroadlycovertheAIstack.Coatueanalysisof

Pitchbookdataasof

November2023.

Doesnot

includefundingraisedbefore1/1/2020.

CompaniesincludedhereinbasedonPitchbookrounddatathatCoatuecategorizesasan“AICompany”whichmayincludethosewithAIembeddedinaproduct

ratherthanitbeingtheircorecompetency.Thiscategorizationissubjectiveandfocusedon“GenAI”technologies,

andmaynot

beexhaustiveof

allcompaniesthatothersmayconstrueasGenAI.

Categorizationcouldbeimpactedatanytimeby

marketfactors,changesinlawsandotherfactors.Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedaboveasexamplesoftheapplicablestatementsor

trends;

donot

necessarilyrepresent

Coatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.17ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityThejuryisoutonwhichmodelcompanieswillwinAI

Models2020sPrivate

AI

model

companies

raised

~$17B

in

venture

funding

since

2020Open-source

models

are

becoming

more

ubiquitous?Outcome

TBDSource:Pitchbookdataasof

November2023,

Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedaboveasexamplesof

theapplicablestatementsor

trends;donot

necessarilyrepresentCoatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.18ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityComparison:AIadvancingmuchfasterthanpreviouswavesLevelsofautonomyAutonomousvehiclesGenerativeAIL5Fully

autonomousSuperhumanreasoning

&

perception15YearsL4L3L2L1Highly

autonomousAIautopilots

forcomplextasksAIco-pilot

for

skilled

labor~5YearsSelf-driving

withlight

intervention1Tesla

autopilotCruise

controlSupporting

humans

with

basic

tasksGenerating

basic

contentSource:1)MercedesreceivedLevel3rulingthisyear(alongsideCruise/WaymoL4becomingmainstreamthisyear,Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

Thereisnoguaranteethat

Coatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

Logoslistedaboveasexamplesof

theapplicablestatementsor

trends;

donot

necessarilyrepresentCoatueinvestments.SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.19ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityHasinitialAIenthusiasmsloweddown?AIusageworldwidestartedflatteningduringsummerApproximateglobalAIapplicationsuserscountbymonthUsergrowthhas

slowedsinceMay550M500M450M400M350M300MVastmajorityofusage(over60%ofuserbase)driven

byChatGPT250M200M150M100M50MUsageslowingcouldbemanyreasons•

Summerbreakforstudents•

Shockandawewaning,peopleknowwhichusecases

AIisgreatvs.

poorat01/202203/2205/2207/2209/2211/2201/2303/2305/2307/2309/2311/23Source:Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Non-exhaustivesetof

apps

representedinsampleset.Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrendSeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.20ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityEarlydeveloperexcitementwaningandwashingoutAI“tourists”ExcitementinAI/ML

onGitHub,measuredbystars,hasdeclinedsinceApril2023Percentageof

allnewGitHubstarsgiven

toAI/ML

repos35%Down

13percentagepointsfrompeak!30%25%20%15%10%5%201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:GitHubasof

November2023,

Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.21ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilitySeriousAIbuildersremainAI/ML

commitshavenotdeclinedasmuchsinceApril2023Percentof

AI/ML

repositorycommitsasproportion

of

total

commitson

GitHub10%AI/ML

commits8%6%4%2%201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:GitHubasof

November2023,

Commitmeansadiscretechangetooneor

morefilesinaGitHubrepository.Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.22ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityChatGPTusagehasrebounded,newcapabilitieshaveshippedChatGPTweeklywebvisitsworldwidesincelaunch500M450M+27%fromlateAugust!400M350M300M250M200M150M100M50MCouldnewcapabilitiessuchasGPT-4Vision,WebSearchortheGPTsmarketplacecontinuedrivingChatGPTusageforward?12/202201/2302/2303/2304/2305/2306/2307/2308/2309/2310/2311/23Source:Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.23ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityWebelieveit’sfirstinningsofenterpriseAIadoption~60%+ofsurveyedenterprisesplantoadoptAILessthan10%havefullyadopted;timelineislongPOC

orearlier35%22%43%21%49%Adopting58%61%65%Earlytesting/MVP25%In

prod.

/scalerolloutFullyadopted33%9%42%26%9%Notadopting39%35%20%6%New

AIproductsAIpersonalization&supportAI-poweredfeatures

forexistingproductsAI-poweredfeaturesforNewAIproducts

AIpersonalization&supportexistingproductsSource:Surveyof

~600enterpriseexecutivesasof

2023,

andCoatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.24ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityWeareoptimistic:AIisgettingbetter,fasterSpeedformodelstoreachhumanlevelaccuracyonbenchmarkshasdecreasedHumanparityLanguageunderstandingHighschool&college

subjectsReadingcomprehensionHandritingrecognitionImage

recognitionCode

generationCommonsensecompletionSpeech

recognition19982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024Source:DirectionaldatatakenfromContextual.ai,Time,

and

PapersWithCodeasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

Thereisnoguaranteethat

Coatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.25ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityAIregulationmaybemorelikelythanmostthinkInitialpollssuggestmanyAmericansconcernedaboutAI%ofsurveyedrespondents,AIPolicyInstitute83%82%57%18%Ibelieve

AI

could

causea

catastrophic

eventAI

should

proceedslowly

and

deliberatelySupporta

6-monthpause

in

AI

developmentI

trust

AI

tech

executivesto

self-regulate

AISource:AIPolicyInstituteandYouGov

asof

November2023,

Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrative

purposesonly.

ThereisnoguaranteethatCoatue’sviewsandprojectionsregardingthefuturepotentialof

AIareaccurateor

thatanyparticularCoatueinvestmentor

fundwillbenefitfromtheAItrend.

SeeAppendix-Disclosuresforimportantdisclosures,

includingregardingprojectionsandforward-lookingstatementsandtrends.26ValueaccrualCapabilitiesUtilityEU’sAIActisamongfirstexamplesofregulationMostmodelsfallshortofmeetingrequirementsfromEUAIAct,perStanfordstudyGPT-4Cohere

CommandClaude

v1LLAMA-1PaLM-2BLOOMDraftEU

AIActrequirementsNon-exhaustive

listData

sources“Description

of

the

data

sources

usedinthedevelopment

of

the

foundation

model.”Compute“Description

of

thetrainingresources

used

by

thefoundation

modelincludingcompute

required,trainingtime,

and

otherinformationrelated

to

thesizeand

power

of

the

model.”Energy“Design

and

develop

the

foundation

model,

makinguseof

applicable

standards

to

reduce

energy

use,resourceuseand

waste,

aswellas

to

increaseenergy

efficiency.”Capabilities

&

limitations“Description

of

the

capabilities

and

limitations

of

thefoundation

model.”Risk

&

mitigations“The

reasonably

foreseeablerisksand

the

measuresthathavebeen

taken

to

mitigate

them

aswellasremainingnon-mitigatedriskswithan

explanation

onthe

reasonwhythey

cannot

be

mitigated.”Data“Without

prejudice

to

national

orUnionlegislation

ondocument

and

make

publicly

availableasufficiently

detailedsummaryof

theuseoftrainingdata

protected

underlaw.”Source:Stanfordasof

November2023,

Coatueanalysisandopinionasof

November2023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

There

isnoguarant