尼日利亚发展现状-英

NigeriaDevelopment

UpdateSeizing

theopportunityJune

27,2023NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP0NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP1NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP2June

2023

NDU:

“Seizing

the

opportunity”

–in

anutshellThe

recently

undertakenPMSsubsidy

&FXreforms

arehistoric:Inflation

impactsshouldbetemporarybut

will

besignificant,

so

providesometimely,

temporaryandtargeted

assistance:Beyond

theimmediateassistance,

considerformulatingandcommunicatinganew,broaderCOMPACTaround:Entrenchthenewapproachtomacroeconomicstabilityandfaster

growth

throughcontinued

reforms:NGN3.9

trninsavingsin2023aloneMove

to

providequick

support:cash

transfers

can

help

shield

poorandvulnerableHHsRestoring

fiscal

sustainability,whilealso

supporting

poor

andvulnerableHHstoweathertheadjustmentFXpolicy:

focused

onmaintaining

aunified

exchangeratewithtransparent

pricediscovery

basedonFX

supply

anddemandStops

Nigeriafrom

goingover

afiscal

cliffIt

canbedoneaffordably

relativetotheresources

getting

freed

upfromthereform,

andfinancing

isavailableSpending

better,

totackledevelopmentprioritiesMonetarypolicy:focused

onprice-stability

through

coherent

policiesandarevitalizednominalanchorSets

the

stage

foranew,

upwardinvestment,

growth,anddevelopmenttrajectorySustainably

spending

more,basedonmobilizing

morerevenuesIt

can

bedonebased

onrobustidentification

ofrecipients

who

needhelpthemost,

andtransparently

bydigital

methodsFiscal

policy:focused

onrebuildingfiscal

space,

through

careful

controloftotal

spending,

spending

better,andmobilizing

morerevenuesTradeandstructural

policies:focused

onremovingtheregulatorybottlenecks

andconstraints

totrade,

investment

andgrowthNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP3NIGERIA

SEIZINGTHE

OPPORTUNITY

TORISETOITSPOTENTIAL:

RECENTREFORMS

CAN

BEGIN

TOBEND

NIGERIA’SDEVELOPMENT

PATH

UPWARDSUS$,2017

PPP18,00016,00014,00012,000Nigeria:

rising

topotential,

with

thereformsunderway

&10,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000complementary

reformsIndonesia's

GDPpercapitaNigeria's

GDPpercapitaReformreversalAverage

GDPpercapitagrowth

2002

-2014:5.1

percentSource:

NBS,WDI,

and

World

Bank

estimatesNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP4PART

1:UNDERSTANDINGTHEURGENCY

OFREFORMSNIGERIA’SECONOMY

INTHEFIRST

HALF

OF2023NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP5GLOBAL

BACKDROP:

OILPRICESHAVE

DROPPED

SINCELAST

NDU,

BUTARESTILL

ABOVE

AVERAGE

–YET

NIGERIA

HAS

NOTBEEN

BENEFITINGOilpricesdroppedinH12023

but

remainedabove

the…butafterrecovering

fromtheCOVID-19shock,average

priceofthe

lasttwo

decades…growth

hassoftenedUS$/bblPercent6.016014012010080Real

GDP

growthCrude

oil

price4.02.00.02.4Historical

average

of-2.0

Real

GDP

growth2018-19=

2.1percent-4.06040Average

2006-2019

=

US$62.8/bbl-6.0-8.0200Sources:

CBNSources:

NBSNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP6GLOBAL

BACKDROP:

CONTINUED

TOADD

TOTHEPRESSURE

ONNIGERIA’SALREADY

HIGHFINANCING

COSTS

AND

INFLATIONGlobal

financialconditions

tightenedasmonetarypolicy

tightened

toreduceinflationThe

extent

ofglobal

monetary

policy

tightening

hasbeen…while

commodity

pricesremain

well

above

pre-pandemiclevelsunprecedented…PercentIndex,

2015-19

=1002508EMDEs200150100506EnergyFoodAdvancedeconomies4MetalsGlobalpolicy

rates200Source:

WorldBankNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP7GROWTH

WEAKENED

INQ1,HAMPERED

BY

CASH

SCARCITYThe

nairaredesigncausedacash

crunch,exacerbating

thedragcausedbyexternal

conditions

and

–mainly–byother

domesticpoliciesThe

nairademonetizationreducedGDP

growth

in…and

didnotimprove

eitherinflationorthe

FXmanufacturingandservices…parallelmarketrate

premiumPercentPercentPercentNaira

redesignNairaredesign232221201918171615908070607.57.06.56.05.55.04.54.03.53.0Non-oil,

non-agricultureGDP

growthCounterfactualInflationFX

premium(rhs)504030Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022Q12023Source:

NBS,World

Bank,

FMDQ,

and

Aboki

Rates.NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP8INFLATION

CONTINUED

INCREASING

AND

REACHED

A17-YEARHIGHNigeria’shigh,

structural

inflation

worsened

asmonetaryandfiscalpolicy

remainedlooseIncontrasttothe

global

trend,Nigeria’s

inflation…andpolicy

rate

increaseswere

ineffective

incontrollingsurgedinH12023…inflation

because

theoverall

policy

stance

stayed

loosePercentIndex

(2019=100)110Percent21.025TIGHTERMONETARY

POLICYNigeria19.017.015.013.011.09.01051002015105Monetary

conditions9590858075indexKenyaUKMPR(rhs)South

AfricaLOOSER

MONETARY

POLICYUS7.005.0Source:

CBN,WDI,

FMDQ,World

BankNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP9HIGHINFLATION

MEANS

THAT

MORE

NIGERIANS

BECAME

POORNotonly

did

poverty

increase,but

foodinsecurityrosetoo…andaverage

pricesoflocallyproducedstaplesInflation

pushedan

estimated4million

moreNigerianshave

increased

fasterthanaverage

inflationintopoverty

inthefirst5months

of2023…What

does

N1000buy?Number

of

poor

people

(millions)95April

2022​April

2023​4million

additionalNigerians

fallinginto

povertyYa

m1.7

tubers0.9

tuber49085Bread2.3

loaves1.7

liters1.8

loaves0.9

liter80757089.889.8KeroseneStartof2023May2023Source:

WorldBank

estimates

based

onNBSdataSource:

NBSNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP10FOREIGN

EXCHANGE

DISTORTIONS

WERE

SEVEREAs

CBN

rationedsupply

andattemptedtocontroldemandintheFX

marketThe

premiumbetween

theparallelandofficialratealmost…andNigeria’s

FXpremiumwas

amongthehighestindoubled

intheyear

through

May2023theworldPercent150Naira/US$900800700600500400300Parallel

rate1251007550250FXpremium=

63%Parallel

rate

premiumFXpremium=

37%IErateNote:

Latest

data

as

of

the

end

of

Q12023

(May2023

for

Nigeria).

ExcludesLebanon

and

Yemen.Source:

FMDQ,World

Bank,

Aboki

ratesNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP11FX

RESERVES

KEPTDECLINING,

DESPITEHIGHER

OILPRICESAs

well

as

the

negative

impactofprevious

FXpolicies,

thepetrolsubsidyalsoreducednetFXinflowsUS$billion55US$/bbl140Crudeoil

price

(rhs)COVID-19

andoilprice

shocks5045403530252012010080I&EwindowcreatedAdditional

SDRallocationOil

price

shockReserves60Declining

reservesdespite

high

oilprices40200Sources:

CBNNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP12DETERIORATING

FISCAL

SITUATION

PRIORTOTHEPMSSUBSIDY

REFORMDespitesome

improvement

innon-oil

revenues,

fiscalandthereforedebtdynamicswere

worsening

rapidlyRevenues

remainedbelow7percent

ofGDP

(one

ofthelowest

globally)despite

theboostinnon-oil

revenues

……which

ledtointerest

costssurging,

crowding

outother

spending

suchascapitalexpenditurePercent

of

GDPPercent

of

GDP9.05.04.54.03.53.02.52.04.72.6Capitalexpenditure8.07.03.42.83.3

3.32.92.3Non-oilrevenue6.04.62.61.64.45.04.03.02.01.00.02.11.52.01.91.94.75.14.51.5

1.31.0Interestpayments0.53.63.0Oilrevenue0.02.02.01.82015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

202220182019202020212022Sources:

BOFand

OAGFSources:

CBN

and

OAGF

and

World

Bank

estimatesNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP13ASARESULT,

PUBLIC

DEBT

INCREASED

TO40PERCENT

OFGDPAs

external

marketswere

closed,thefederalgovernment

borrowed

moremainly

fromCBNtofinanceitsdeficitIn2022,

the

FGN

was

unable

tomeet

itsbudgetedborrowing…andpushing

debtservice

above

100percent

oftargets,resultinginmorefinancing

fromtheCBN…revenuesNaira

billion8000Percent

of

GDP45.0Percent

of

revenue120.0Debtservice(rhs)700040.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.0100.080.060.040.020.00.06000Budget5000Actual40003000200010000Thecumulativeadditionalfinancing

since

2016

hasbeen

N57,122

per

capitaPublicdebtstock-1000DomesticBorrowingExternalBorrowing

CBNWaysand0.0(excl.multilateral/bilateralloans)Means2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022Sources:

CBN

and

OAGF

and

World

Bank

estimates.Sources:

BOFand

OAGFNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP14PART

2:THEREMOVAL

OFTHEPMSSUBSIDYNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP15THEPMSSUBSIDY

REFORM

REMOVES

ANUNSUSTAINABLE

FISCAL

BURDENIn2022,

thepetrolsubsidy

drained32percentof

Nigeria’srevenuesPetrolsubsidyaccounted

for0.9percentand2.2

percentof

GDP

in

2021and

2022Naira,

billionsGross

oil

andgasrevenuePetrol

subsidyNetoil

andgasrevenueOther

deductions20212022Sources:

WorldBank

calculations

based

on

data

from

OAGF

and

NBSNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP16REMOVING

THE

PETROL

SUBSIDY

HELPS

NIGERIAAVOID

AFISCALCLIFF

AND

EASESDEBT

SUSTAINABILITY

RISKSPercent

of

GDP-2.0-2.5Average

fiscaldeficit2015-2019:

3.9percent

ofGDP-3.2-3.0-3.6-3.5-3.8Fiscaldeficitafter

thesubsidyremoval-4.0

-4.0-4.1-4.0-4.5-5.0-5.5-6.0-6.5-7.0-4.6-5.1-5.0-5.1-6.4-6.6-6.8-6.8Nosubsidyremoval2022

2023201520162017201820192020202120242025Source:

WorldBank

estimates

based

on

BOF,

DMO,

OAGF,

and

NNPC.NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP17EVENWITHTHE

RECENT

REFORMS,

FINANCING

NEEDS

REMAIN

ELEVATEDAnd

complementary

measures

are

neededtoreducedebt

pressuresGrossborrowing

isexpectedtobe

high,

albeit…anddebtservicing

will

remain

aconcernlower

thaninanoreformscenario…despitetheincreaseinfiscal

spacePercent

of

GDPPercent

of

revenues1801601401201008012.010.08.0Noreforms5.45.15.04.20.72.41.8Ways

andMeans

/ResidualExternalborrowing6.01.71.40.85.21.94.31.63.94.0With

subsidy

removal

andFXreforms605.02.04.03.540Domesticborrowing0.0202023202420252023202420250No

reformsReformscenario2022202320242025NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKSource:

WorldBank

estimates

based

ondata

fromBOFand

DMOIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP18ITIS

CRITICAL

TOCHOOSE

HOWSAVINGS

FROM

REFORMS

WILLBEUSEDTo

maximize

theimpactofthe

petrolsubsidy

reformPayingoffsubsidy

arrears

toNNPCwill

reducethe…andifthe

government

undertakes

largenew

expendituresfiscalsavings

for2023…thefiscalsituation

for2023

couldrapidly

deteriorate

againNaira,

billionsFiscal

gains

fromsubsidy

removalandFXreformsPercent

of

GDP0.0Payment

ofsubsidyarrears2022202320242025-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0-6.0-7.0-8.0Fiscal

balanceincluding

paymentof

NNPC

arrearsSavings

foruse

bytheFederationFiscal

balanceFiscal

balanceincludingpayment

of

NNPCarrearsandhigher

wage

billSource:

WorldBank

estimates

based

onNNPC

and

BOFdataNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP19AVOIDING

THECLIFF,

BUTSTILLCLIMBING

THEMOUNTAIN:

BREAKINGOUTOFTHELOWREVENUES

/LOW

SPENDING

FISCAL

EQUILIBRIUM,AND

IMPROVING

SPENDING

EFFICIENCYMorereformstostrengthenrevenues

are

neededtofund

public

services

anddevelopment.

Onpresenttrends,Nigeriawill

continue

spending

less

than$20/person/monthonnon-interestexpenditure

fortheforeseeable

futurePercent

of

GDP20.0US$3018.017.6252015105SSA

average16.014.012.010.08.0Monthly

percapitainterest8865expenditure55658.85.18.9

Total8.64.78.64.98.75.08.44.78.24.6revenue7.45.0Monthly

percapita

non-interest1817Non-oilrevenue5.23.7166.01514131212expenditure4.0Oilrevenue2.03.93.83.73.83.73.52.400.02023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

20302023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030Source:

World

Bank

estimates

based

on

data

from

BOF,

DMO,and

WEONIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP20PART

2:FOREIGN

EXCHANGEMANAGEMENT

REFORMSNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP21THECBN

UNDERTOOK

ASUBSTANTIAL

FX

REFORMTransparency

andpredictabilityMultiple

windowsPricediscovery•INTHE

PAST:

4official

windows,eachone

withadifferent

price

discoverymechanism.•INTHE

PAS

T:

Willing

buyerwilling-sellermechanism

was

only

available

at

the

I&Ewindow,

anditwas

not

fully

enforced.•INTHE

PAS

T:

Notallorders

wereregistered.•

NOW:

Order

Book

reintroduced.•NOW:

Allwindowswere

merged

into

theI&Ewindow.•NOW:

Willing

buyer-willingsellerreintroduced.•INTHE

PAS

T:

Therate

forgovernment-related

transactions

was

within2percentof

the

NAFEX.The

Central

Bankhas•NOW:

Theoperational

rate

for

allthegovernment-related

transactions

istheweighted

average

rate

of

theproceedingday’sexecuted

transactions

at

the

I&Ewindow.communicatedclearlytothepublic

theoperationalchangestotheFXmarket.•INTHE

PAS

T:

RT200

and

Naira4DollarRemittance

Schemes:

costly,

subsidizedFXwindows.•NOW:

Schemes

removed.Source:

CBNNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP22THEREFORMS

HADAN

IMMEDIATE

IMPACT

ONTHE

OFFICIAL

FXMARKETWith

theIEFXandparallelmarket

ratesconverging,

Nigeriahas

maderapidprogresstowards

re-establishingaunified,

market-reflective

FXrateThe

re-introduction

ofthe

willing

buyerwilling

sellermechanism

has

allowed

price

discoveryinthe

I&Ewindow…Naira/US$…and

thepremiumbetween

the

official

andthe

parallelrates

dropped

substantially

tobelow

10

percent16014012010080800Parallel

rateParallel

ratepremium750700Average

June,

14–

20:711N/US$6506005506040200IEFXrate500450400Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Sources:

Aboki

ratesand

World

BankSources:

FMDQ

and

Aboki

ratesNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP23IMPACTS:

INFLATION

PASS-THROUGH

ISEXPECTED

TOBEMODERATEThe

parallelmarket

hadalreadypassed

through

domesticpricesPercentN/US$900252015105800700600500400300200100-Theparallel

rate

movesfirst(depreciates),

andthis

isfollowed

byarise

ininflation…Inflation

rate(rhs)Similar

dynamics

since

2021.

The

parallelrate

and

inflation

move

closely

together,but

inflation

is

not

as

responsive

to

the

IErate.

This

implies

that

a

large

part

of

the“passthrough”

between

inflation

and

theERis

already

accounted

for.In

April

2017,

the

IEFXwindow

is

created(an

effective

devaluation)

andthe

supply

ofFXimproves.

With

greater

ERpredictabilitythe

parallel

rate

comes

down

(appreciates),and

this

helps

to

bring

down

inflation.Parallel

rateI&Erate02014201520162017201820192020202120222023Sources:

FMDQ,

NBSand

Aboki

rateNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP24IMPACTS:

PUBLIC

EXTERNAL

DEBT

IS

EXPECTED

TOINCREASE

DUE

TOVALUATION

EFFECTS,

BUT

WILLNOWBEONASTABLE

PATHDespitetheincreaseinexternal

debt,theimprovement

innominal

revenues

isexpected

toreducetotalborrowingPublic

debtwithout

thesubsidy

removal

andFX

reformswould

have

beenhigher

duetoincreasingCBN

financingPercent

of

GDP60Publicdebt

withoutsubsidy

removalandFXreforms4948Publicdebt504046464645404030201002022202320242025Sources:

DMO,CBN,and

World

Bank

estimatesNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP25PART

4:REFORM

IMPLICATIONSWHERETOFROM

HERETOSEIZETHEOPPORTUNITY

TORISETOPOTENTIALNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP26THERECENTLY

IMPLEMENTED

MACRO

REFORMS

WILLHAVE

APOSITIVEIMPACT

ONMACRO

STABILITY

AND

ECONOMIC

GROWTH…andwhile

inflation

will

behigher

in2023,

itwill

beGrowth

isexpected

toincrease…lower

in2024-2025

iftherightpolicy

mixis

sustainedSource:

NBSand

World

Bank

estimates.NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP27FINANCIAL

MARKETS

ALSO

SHOW

INCREASED

OPTIMISM

ABOUTFUTURE

ECONOMIC

PERFORMANCENigeria’srisk

premiumhasfallenintheinternational

capitalmarketEurobond

spreadsBps140012001000800NigeriaAngolaKenya600400Source:

JP

Morgan.NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP28HOWEVER,

THE

REMOVAL

OFTHE

SUBSIDY

WILLTEMPORARILYINCREASE

INFLATIONInflation

will

increaseinH22023,

beforedecreasing…asthefinancing

gap,andhencerelianceonbelow20percent

in2024…inflationary

CBNfinancing,

decreasesPercent

of

estimated

revenues12035

PercentWays

andMeansfinancing

if

subsidy

hadcontinued3025100Inflation

forecast8020Financinggap60151040CBNinflation

target

(6-9

percent)52000202320242025Sources:

NBSand

World

Bank

estimatesSources:

WorldBank

and

CBN.NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP29THENEAR-TERM

ADDED

PRESSURE

ONHOUSEHOLD

FINANCES

MAKESITCRITICAL

TOACCOMPANY

THE

REFORMS

WITHASOCIAL

COMPACTIncluding

temporarycash

transferstohelpshieldpoor

andvulnerable

households.

Thecurrentcoverage

ofsocialprotectionprograms(SPPs)islowat19

percentof

thepopulation7.1Madditional

Nigerianswould

bepushedinto

poverty

by

inflation

intheabsence

ofanycompensationExpected

income

loss

per

month

per

householdOthersINVESTinasocialprotectionsystem

thatcan

providetimely,

targeted

andtemporary

support

toHHs

experiencing

ashock(liketheincreaseinPMSprices

due

tosubsidyremoval)20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000•

Currently:

Nigeria

spends

only

0.7%percent

ofGDPonsocial

safetynets(SSA:1.2%)•

19%

ofthepopulation

covered(SSA:25%)EconomicallyinsecurePoorSocialbenefits:•

Humancapitalinvestment•

Education

outcomes•

Health

outcomesEconomicbenefits:•

Trustinthe

government12345678910•

Support

forand

therefore

sustainability

ofreform

effortsConsumptiondecilesSource:

2018/19

NLSSand

World

Bank

estimates.NIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP30NIGERIA

CAN

DELIVER

ACASH

TRANSFER

TOPOORAND

VULNERABLEHOUSEHOLDS

ASONEELEMENT

OF

ABROADER

SOCIALCOMPACTUsingarobusttargetingmethodandtransparencybasedondigital

paymentsRegistries

cover

44percentof

allHHs,spanacross

Nigeria,

…andtargeting&transparency

benefitfromdigitalandtarget

thepoor...deliveryPercentage

of

households

captured

inthe

registry80Transfers

align

withCBN'sknow-your-customerMobile

wallets

canbesetupforrecipientsNational

SocialRegistry,

15.7M

HH706050403020100(KYC)requirementsRapidResponseRegistry:

2.7M

HHBiometricverificationincreasinglyusedSavings

fromthesubsidycan

alsobeusedforotherpro-poor

service

delivery

(ex.health,education,infrastructure)1-Leastwealthy3579Source:

WorldBank

staffbased

onSmytheand

Blumenstock

(2022)

and

administrative

registrydata

from

NASSCO.NSR:National

Social

Registry,

15.7M

householdsRRR:Rapid

Response

Registry:

2.7M

householdsNIGERIATHE

WORLD

BANKIBRD•IDA│WORLD

BANK

GROUP31APOSSIBLE

WAY

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