Accenture+投资者如何看待采矿业作为脱碳捍卫者的新角色-英

How

investors

view

mining’snew

role

as

a

champion

ofdecarbonizationThe

mining

industry,

long

considereda

problem

in

environmental

sustainability,is

now

seen

as

a

critical

part

of

the

solution.

Investors

and

consumers

alikeare

beginning

to

recognize

the

industry

as

not

only

the

first

source

of

emissionsin

the

value

chain,

buta

necessary

provider

of

critical

raw

materials

neededfor

the

global

energy

transition.Consequently,

manyminingcompaniesare

nowembracingtheirroleasstewardsoftheplanetbychampioningtheloweringofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsandreducingthecarbonimpactonclimatechange.for

lower-carbon

products.

Additionally,

miners

viewdecarbonization

as

a

means

to

reduce

theircost

ofcapital

via

enhanced

access

to

the

growing

poolofsustainability-linkedfunding

by

investors

focused

onenvironmental,social

andgovernance

(ESG)

factors.Moreover,

investors

are

increasinglybeating

thedecarbonizationdrum.TheAccentureGlobalInstitutionalInvestorStudyofESGinMiningfoundthat,whenaskedinisolation,59%ofinvestorswantminerstoaggressivelypursuedecarbonizationandbemarketleadersinthateffort.Inaddition,approximately

63%ofinvestorsrespondedthattheywouldbewillingtodivestoravoidinvestinginminingcompaniesthatfail

tomeettheirdecarbonizationtargets,withthesamenumberequallywillingshoulda

miningfirmpursueinsufficientdecarbonizationactivities.Perceived

financial

incentives

area

major

driverfor

thischange

in

perspective.

First,

miners

seedecarbonizationas

a

revenue

opportunity—to

mineand

sell

the

necessary

raw

materials

such

as

copper,lithium,

cobaltandnickel

that

feed

the

growingenergy

transition,

or

by

charging

premium

pricingWhileminingcompaniesmustbalancetheinterestsofmultiplestakeholders—includinglocalcommunities,governments,regulators,endcustomers,employeesandinvestors—equityinvestorsoftenplayanoutsizedroleduetothecapital-intensivenatureofthebusiness.Howinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization2Decarbonizationannouncements

arebecoming

commonplaceHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization3Theword

hasgottenthrough

tominers.Sustainability,

ESG,

decarbonizationandgreen

are

allnow

commonlypart

ofthecorporate

vernacular.

According

toa

UNGC-Accenture

Strategy

CEO

Study,72%

ofminingandmetals

CEOs

agreethatsustainabilityissues—includingdecarbonization—are“very

important”or“important”

tothefuture

success

oftheirbusinesses

(compared

tojust54%Figure1:Risingnumberofstand-alonedecarbonizationannouncementsintheminingsector3935342924191493218161814across

allindustries).17Almosteverymajorminingcompanynowhasprogramsinplacetoreducecarbonemissions.AnS&PGlobalMarketIntelligenceanalysisfoundthatsevenofthetenlargestmetalsandminingcompaniesby

marketcapitalizationhave

committedtoreachingnetzero

for

directlyproducedemissions(Scope1)andindirectemissions(Scope2),orcarbonneutrality,by

2050orearlier.2

Infact,publicannouncementsondecarbonizationinitiativessurgedin2020and2021,someinvolvingmultibillion-dollarcapitalprogramstoreduceemissions(seeFigure1).444313222123-1201620172018201920202021YearAllannouncementsDecarbonizationcommitmentProgressannouncementsSource:AccentureResearch;2021isyeartodateJune30,

2021Howinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization4However,

decarbonizationannouncementsalonedonotseemtotranslateintoimmediatemarketvalueforminers.Investors,

ultimately,wanttoseeaction—andfavorablefinancialresults—before

rewardingcompanieswithincreasedvaluationandinvestment.Figure

2:Cumulativeabnormalreturnsforcompaniesmakingdecarbonizationannouncements210Accentureresearchersstudiedsharepricemovementsofminingcompaniesthreedays

beforeandaftertheirdecarbonizationannouncements(progressreportsortargetannouncements,almostallofwhichareupgrades).Theresultsshowed—atbest—no

clear

change

between

the

cumulative

averageabnormal

returns

of

companiesand

the

broadersector

or—at

worst—a

disappointing

negativeaverage

market

reaction

(see

Figure

2).-1-2-3-4-5-6-3-2-10123Days

before

and

after

public

announcementTo

determine

the

reasons

behind

thismarket

behavior,

the

Accenture

GlobalInstitutional

Investor

Study

of

ESG

inMining

was

conducted.Upperbound(95%confidenceinterval)CumulativeaverageabnormalreturnLowerbound(95%confidenceinterval)Source:AccentureResearchHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization5Principal

sur

vey

revelation:Inve

stors’

underlyingmotivation

is

mostly

financialHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization6Thereisnodenyingthepublicpressureonminingcompaniestopursuesustainability,includingdecarbonization.However,

whenstackedagainstalistofothermining-relatedpriorities,investorsrankedsustainabilityinitiativessecondtolastasavaluedriver(seeFigure3).Rankinghighestweretechnologyanddigitaltransformationinitiatives.Figure3:TheprioritizationofinitiativestoimprovethevaluationofminingcompaniesEmergingtechnologiesDigitaltransformationConservingcash71.0%60.0%50.5%47.5%Research&developmentMineralexplorationOursurveyfoundthatthepotentialforincreasedmarketvaluationandtheriseinminingfirms’abilitytoattractgreencapitalweretheprimarymotivationsinvestorscitedforrequiringminingcompaniestopursuedecarbonizationinitiatives,chosenas“important”or“veryimportant”45.5%Hedging-prices&foreignexchange44.0%43.5%CybersecurityMergers&acquisitionsProductexpansion/new

developmentSustainability42.0%39.0%37.0%by72%and71%

ofrespondentsrespectively.Consequently,thefindingssuggesta

riskthatinvestors

maybelessinclinedto

investinminingcompanieswithstrongsustainabilitycredentials,shouldtheavailabilityofgreencapitaldecline.Infact,theimpactofclimatechangeappearstobelesscrucialthanthefinancialmotivationsininvestors’minds,withthelowestnumber(only57%)

ofrespondentshighlightingitasan“important”or“very

important”consideration.Employeetraining28.5%%

InvestorsindicatinggreatimpactonvalueSource:AccentureGlobalInstitutionalInvestorStudyofESGinMiningHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization7Figure4:TheimportanceofcriteriaindrivingallocationofcapitalRegardless,whenitcomestotheallocationofcapital,financialmetricsare

ofgreatestimportance.Inourstudy,morethan83%ofinvestorssurveyedsaidtheyviewimprovingfinancialperformanceandstrengthening

thebalancesheetas“important”or“very

important,”

whereasaggressive

decarbonizationwas

viewedas“important”or“very

important”

bylessthan70%

ofrespondents

(see

Figure

4).Improvingfinancialperformance43.5%49.0%40.0%34.0%BalancesheetstrengthPursuitofinnovationDiversificationoflocationsValuation29.0%25.0%29.5%45.0%49.0%42.0%47.5%43.5%46.5%41.0%46.0%41.5%44.0%44.5%37.0%35.0%Potentialenvironmentalliabilities23.0%Exposuretospecificmetals/minerals26.0%23.0%28.5%22.0%26.5%23.5%19.5%20.5%21.0%Ultimately,

investors

areaskingminingcompaniestopursuedecarbonizationaggressivelywhilesimultaneouslyaskingthatdecarbonizationinitiativesalsobringfinancialgains,whethertheycomefromimprovedearningsorlowercostofcapital.AggressivecommitmenttodecarbonizationManagement&boardSecurityoftenureDiversificationofcommoditiesSpeedofpermittingGeologyTaxation

ratesSociallicensetooperate%

Investorsrating“veryimportant”(5outof5)%

Investorsrating“important”(4outof5)Source:AccentureGlobalInstitutionalInvestorStudyofESGinMiningHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization8Withregardtosustainabilityinitiatives,Scope3emissions,whichare

createdby

thebuyerofthemineproducts,ledthefieldasthemostimportantvaluationdrivertoinvestors(seeFigure5).Infact,wheninvestorswere

specificallyaskedabouttheimportanceofScope3emissions,theyoutrankedScope1and2emissionsinimportanceby

afactorofnearlyfour—even

whenScope3emissionswere

notnecessarilysignificant(seeFigure6).Figure

5:Attributesthatwould

drivea

significantvaluationpremiumforinvestorsLow

Scope3emissions24.0%32.0%44.5%61.0%48.0%InvestsinrevolutionarytechnologyImprovingefficiency&costs35.0%BestinclassindependentESGscoreProducesenergy-criticalmetals34.0%34.5%45.0%43.5%Completedcost/benefitonalternativedecarbonizationinitiatives28.5%32.5%22.5%27.5%25.5%19.5%18.5%48.0%42.0%Low

Scope3Targeting

carbonneutralityby

2030ExceptionalsafetyrecordProducesnocoalemissionswerethemostimportantvaluationdrivertoinvestors.48.5%37.5%Targeting

carbonneutralityby

205037.5%43.5%41.5%Diversemanagement/boardDiverseworkforce%

Investorsrating“veryimportant”(5outof5)%

Investorsrating“important”(4outof5)Source:AccentureGlobalInstitutionalInvestorStudyofESGinMiningHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization9Figure

6:TheimportanceofemissionscategoriestoinvestorsTheminingandmetalsindustriesareresponsiblefor

approximately8%

ofglobalemissions,withthevastmajorityrelatedtodownstreammetalproduction.3Thechallengefor

miners

isthatthey

have

farlesscontrol

over

emissionsfrom

downstream

producers.Accordingly,minershavebeenunderstandablyreluctanttoannounceScope3

targets.52.0%57.0%34.0%24.5%3.0%30.0%Scope1&2emissionsScope3emissionsScope3emissions,onlywhenfarexceedScope1&2%Investorsrating“veryimportant”(5outof5)%Investorsrating“important”(4outof5)Source:AccentureGlobalInstitutionalInvestorStudyofESGinMiningHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization10Decarbonization

initiatives

thatcan

enhance

shareholder

valueAs

previously

noted,

our

surveyindicates

that

investors

viewemerging

technologies

and

digitaltransformation

as

offering

the

bestopportunities

to

achieve

value.Accentureresearchershave

developedsimplecost-valuemaps—similartocarbonabatementcurves—thatcanguideminingcompaniestowardallocatingcapitaltothemosteconomicallyefficientandeffectivedecarbonizationinitiativesthatofferthegreatestopportunitytoreturnshareholdervalue.Themapsvarywidelydependingoncommoditiesmined,locationandtheminingandprocessingmethodsemployed(seeFigures7and8).Advancedtechnologiessuchasdataanalytics,artificialintelligence(AI)andblockchainwilllikelydrive

operational

efficiencies

that

enhance

revenuesandearnings.Importantly,thesetechnologieswillalsobeinstrumentalinachievingdecarbonizationandreportingondecarbonizationperformance.Consequently,itisreasonabletoexpectthatdigitaltransformationprojectswillbewell-received

byinvestors,aswellasotherstakeholders.Howinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization11Figure

7:

Cost-valuemapofdecarbonizationinitiatives—Australian(Pilbara)ironore

exampleFigure

8:Cost-valuemapofdecarbonizationinitiatives—ChilecopperexampleTransitional

initiativesTransitional

initiatives"Zero-carbon"

initiatives"Zero-carbon"

initiativesLowScope1&2initiativesCost

(%)Scope3initiativesHighLowCost

(%)Scope3initiativesHighScope1&2initiativesNote:

Bubblesizeindicates

carbonfootprintreductionpotential(includingScope

3)Note:

Bubblesizeindicates

carbonfootprintreductionpotential(includingScope

3)Source:AccentureResearchSource:AccentureResearchHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization12There

are

several

approaches

mining

companies

can

take

to

improve

efficiencyand

reduce

carbon

output,

including

shorter-term,

transitional

initiatives

andlonger-horizon

initiatives

to

eliminate

GHG

emissions.Shorter-term

initiatives:Longer-horizon

initiatives:Leveragingdataanalytics,alongwithAdoptingblockchaininitiativestomeasure,reportandauditcarbonemissionsthroughtheentirevaluechainReplacingon-sitefossilfuelpowergenerationwithrenewablesourcesofelectricityAIandmachinelearning,to

improveefficienciesthatenhanceprofitabilitywhilereducingcarbonfootprintAutomatingoperationstoDeployingatrolleyassistthatreducesdieselfuelconsumptionby

enablingtrucks

and

trains

to

use

on-site

electricity—ideally

generated

using

renewable

energyAdoptinghydrogenfuelcelltechnologyto

powermachineryandhaulage(assuminggreen

hydrogen)reduce

energyconsumptionbyregulatingandoptimizingmachineryspeedsandmovementImplementinganinternalcarbonpricetoaidinday-to-daydecision-makingEmployinglesspower-intensiveequipmentandswitchingtobiofuelsRe-fleetingwithelectricvehicles(assumingrenewableelectricitygeneration)Howinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization13Thesolutionswithlimitedvalueenhancementincludedivestitureofcoalminingassetsandcarboncapture,utilizationandstorage(CCUS).thatpursuingstrategicshort-termandnext-horizonopportunitieswillallowEuropeancompaniestonotonlypositionthemselvestoachievetheambitioustargetof55%

emissionsreductionby2030butalsounlockaround€28billioninbusinessvalueacrosssixsectors—chemicals,cement,ironandsteel,battery,pharmaanddatacenters—by2025.4Witheitherapproach,digitaltransformationiskey.

Net-zerosolutionssupportedbydigitaltechnologiescanprovide

cost-effective

waysofachievingemissionsreductionsacrosssectorsandjurisdictions.LookingatEurope,forexample,recent

Accenture

research

revealsAnd

how

should

mining

companies

proceed?The

most

prudent

approach

appears

to

befor

themto

develop

near-term

initiatives

that

provide

quick

winsto

gain

investors’

trust

and

confidence

before

theytackle

the

big

decarbonization

challenges,

which

mayhave

greater

impact

but

also

come

with

greater

risk.Howinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization14AddressingScope

3

emissionsHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization15Investors,

along

with

otherFor

example,ouranalysishasfoundthatCentraltoearningthesepricepremiumsstakeholders,

are

sendinga

clearmessage

that

mining

companiesshould

focus

their

decarbonizationinitiatives

on

Scope

3

emissions.improvinga

relatively

low-grade

58%

iron

oreproductbyjust0.5%

more

iron

(Fe)

couldreducedownstreamsteelmillemissionsbyanestimated0.75%

perunitofhotmetalorsteelproduced.GiventhatdownstreamScope3

emissionsfor

lower-grade

iron

oreproductscanexceed100timestheiron

oreofminer’sScope1

and2emissions,thismodestbutsignificantemissionsreductioncouldrepresent

morethanthecombinedScope1

and2

emissionsproduceddirectlybytheiron

oreminingcompany!isaccurate,auditablecarbontrackingthatstartsatthemineandextendsalongtheentiredownstreamvaluechain.Asmoreandmoreminingcompaniesadoptsuchpractices,we

canenvisionadaywhenmetalandmineralpriceswillbequotedbasedontheirglobalcarbonfootprintorsustainabilityscore.

For

example,

basedonaUS$100/tonnecarbonprice,asteelproducermightbewillingtopayapremiumofUS$3/tonneforzero-carbon58%

Fe

iron

ore,or

a

US$3.16/tonnepremiumfor

zero-carbon66%

Fe

“green”

ironore.However,

thisisentirelydependentonthebuyerbeingmotivatedtopurchasesuchgreenmineproducts,whichmayentailcarbontaxesSincemining’s

directproductionofGHGemissionsisrelativelysmall,helpingdownstreampartiesreduceemissionscanhave

amuchlargerimpactand,by

quantifyingandmonetizingthesolutions,generatefinancialreturnsthatdrivehighershareholdervalue.Moreover,

whilehigher-gradeproductsalreadyrealize

premiumprices,carbonpricinghastheopportunityto

widenthispremiumfurtherasbuyers

seekto

avoid

carbontaxes

andotherpenalties.Inthesameexampleabove,

wherea

58%

Fe

iron

ore

productisbeneficiatedMiningcompaniesareactivelypursuinga

numberofavenues

toaddressScope3

emissions,suchasinnovationjointventuresandR&Dpartnershipswithdownstreamcompaniesthataredevisingnewlow-carbonprocessesandproducts.However,inthecaseofbulkmaterialslike

iron

ore,focusingonbeneficiationandgradecontrol(e.g.,blastmovementmonitoring)canhavea

greatermaterialimpactonScope3

emissions,atleastuntilthesteelmakingprocesshasbeenfullydecarbonized.orend-consumerpressures.We

canenvisionaday

whenmetalandmineralpriceswillbequotedbasedontheirglobalcarbonfootprintorsustainabilityscore.to

a

58.5%

Fe

product,thepricepremiumdifferential

couldwidenby

more

thanUS$1/tonne(from

anestimatedUS$5/tonne

to

US$6/tonne—approximately

a

20%

pricepremium)shouldsteelmillsbesubjectto

a

US$100/tonne

carbonprice.Howinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization16Making

decarbonizationenvironmentally

andfinancially

rewardingHowinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization17The

mining

industry

has

reacheda

unique

juncture

where

its

formerimage

as

environmental

villain

isbeingshedand

replaced

as

championof

sustainability,

principally

throughdecarbonization

and

its

crucial

rolein

providing

the

raw

materialsnecessaryto

facilitate

the

energytransition.

Many

miners

are

embracingtheir

new

role

and

enthusiasticallypursuing

decarbonization

initiatives,but

they

must

dosostrategically

ifthey

are

to

balance

the

interests

andpriorities

of

their

various

stakeholders.Sustainabilityandprofitability

are

notmutuallyexclusive

ideals.

Ashighlighted

inourreport,Shaping

the

Sustainable

Organization,

Accenture,incollaboration

withtheWorld

Economic

Forum,hasfound

thatcompanies

across

allsectors

witha

stronger

“Sustainability

DNA”

achieve,

onaverage,a

21%

increase

inbothEBITDA

(earnings

beforeinterest,

taxes,

depreciation

andamortization)andenvironmental

and

societal

impact.

Decarbonizationmay

be

only

one

aspect

of

sustainability,

but

similarlyoptimalmanagementpracticesindecarbonizationcanenhancevalueintheminingsector.Investors,

hardlytheonlystakeholdertowhomminersanswer,

havesignaledtheirwillingnesstorewardcompaniesforachievingdecarbonizationgoalsandreducingGHGemissions.However,theywillonlygranttheserewards

providedtheydonotimpactearningsandfreecashflow.Howinvestorsviewmining’s

newroleasachampionofdecarbonization18The

findings

from

our

study

suggest

thatinvestors

see

the

greatest

opportunitieswhen

miners

focus

on

technology,

digitaltransformation

and

efficiency

initiatives

thatcan

reduce

all

emissions

(Scope

1,2

and

3);improve

financial

results;

aid

in

reliable

carbonemissions

measurement

and

tracking;

andenable

the

monetization

of

decarbonizationsuccess

all

down

the

value

chain.About

the

studyTheAccentureGlobalInstitutionalInvestorStudyofESGinMiningsurveyeddecision-makersat200publicandprivateinstitutionalinvestmentfirmswithminingassetsintheirportfoliovaluedatapproximately

US$847billioninJune2021.ThefirmswereprimarilybasedinAustralia,Canada,HongKong,NewZealand,Singapore,SouthAfrica,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.Thepurposeofthestudywas

tounderstandtheimpactofenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)factorsoninvestmentdecisions.Thisstudywasconductedin2021,priortoRussia’s

invasionofUkraineinFebruary2022.Thereisriskthatinvestorsentimentto

ESGinitiativesmay

havechangedasa

resultoftheinvasion,however,

westillbelievethestudy’s

resultsaccuratelyreflectinvestors’opinions.Moreover,

theseinitiativeslaythegroundworktoenableminersto

leveragetheirin-househumaningenuitytode-riskthegreaterdecarbonizationchallengesaheadofthem.Theresultismorethana

boostinenvironmentalsustainability—it