J.P.摩根｜2024Q1亚洲市场指南（中）

全球经济测360%40%5%20%0%0%‑20%‑40%‑‑40%科技全面的非科技类科技全面的非科技类指数24%20%16%3.90.2‑‑5.3‑‑0.84.912%8%4%0%‑4%‑8%8085投资（资本形成总额）净出口消耗4540服务制造业服务5540%40%30%30%30%20%20%0%0%‑10%‑10%‑20%‑20%‑30%‑40%‑‑40%消耗50%40%30%20%0%‑10%财产现金及存款股票和共同基金其他的分比*59%23%8%‑20%76%25%25%20%5%4%5%5%5%3%0%2%‑5%‑5%‑10%‑15%‑5%0%‑20%‑1%‑10%‑1%‑10%核核中国生产者价格指数中国生产者价格指数个人抵押贷款50%40%30%20%0.080.9个人抵押贷款50%40%30%20%0.042.70.050.060.033.43.03.30%‑10%‑30%60%8%6%4%2%0%‑2%‑4%‑6%33%34%4%0.020.04.20.710.653.23.00.552.46.7072.04.06.36.55.15.65.86.36.55.15.65.853.54.75.04.94.93.9‑8%体积**‑40%01.31.52.02.12.02.22.52.42.52.72.3年初至今年初至今9997%30%97%30%40%2021年2023年年初至今90%20%80%70%70%60%0%50%40%‑10%30%20%‑20%20%‑30%0%0%20%7.5%6.0%5%0%4.5%5‑5%‑10%‑15%‑20%‑53.0%‑151.5%‑25‑25%‑350.0%CFETS人民币指数*106人民币走强远期销售风险准备金率人民币远期销售风险准备金率由0%上调至20%5.55.7人民币利率从0%上调至20%22年9月15日：外汇存款准备金率由8%下调至6%推出CFETS指数人民币远期销售风险准备金率由20%下调至0%市场化机制改革人民币汇率人民币走弱备金率由9%下调至8%7.1CFETS人民币指数美元/人民币（倒挂）20%5.9%7.6%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%5%3.0%0%2.0%‑5%1.0%2.5%2.3%1.8%1.5%3.0%2.8%2.7%2.1%2.3%2.1%2.3%3.3%2.7%2.5%2.7%2.1%1.6%1.7%‑10%投资私人消费0.0%全部的4%2%4%2%0%0%‑2%‑4%‑6%贡献消耗私人投资‑0.50‑2%‑4%‑8%‑6%1.2%60%1.0%0.8%+1.00%***YCC*来自50%0.6%+0.50%0.4%840%0.2%+0.10%0.0%630%‑0.2%‑0.10%‑0.20%‑0.25%‑0.4%420%‑0.6%‑0.50%‑0.8%210%‑1.0%NIRP**来自2016年1月‑1.00%***‑1.2%00%25%20%5%5%‑5%21Jul21Jan22Jul22Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24JanJan21Jul2121Jul21Jan22Jul22Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24Jan指数服务服务英国56.0‑传奇通货膨胀运行英国欧元区印度韩国泰国墨西哥火鸡南非3.1%‑3.9%‑‑0.5%‑5.6%‑3.3%3.2%‑0.4%‑4.7%‑4.3%‑5.5%‑8%8%6%6%4%4%2%2%0%0%‑2%‑‑2%20212020219%8%7.9%7%6%5%4%3%2%0%‑1%5.5%3.1%2.4%2.4%0.0%0.2%0.0%‑0.5%‑‑0.5%2.6%2.0%3.5%2.9%3.3%2.9%3.1%3.1%6.1%4.9%3.9%3.2%2.7%5.9%5.6%4.9%5.2%‑2%7%6%5%04%3%2%‑500%‑100‑1%‑150‑200//；（6.0%6%5%5.0%5%4%4.0%4%3%3.0%3%2%2.0%2%1.0%0%0.0%0%‑1%‑‑1%俄罗斯总统选举韩国立法选举俄罗斯总统选举韩国立法选举G20领导人峰会南非全民选举南非全民选举总统和国会选举总统初选超级星期二*总统初选行进扬八月十月行进扬八月总统和立法选举大选和地方选举印度一般的选举欧洲议会选举亚太经合组织领导人经济周全国人民代表大会和中国人民政治协商会议协商会议20%2.110.035%0%2.1%‑5%‑10%‑15%‑20%君0040%5%30%5%20%0%‑10%8%6%4%2%5‑5‑150%‑5%‑10%‑15%0%‑20%‑0%‑20%‑20%经济衰退8%6%4%2%0%0005850005失业率JOLTS*职位空缺JOLTS辞职率和工资8%3.0%7%2.8%6%2.6%864202.4%2.2%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%5%4%3%2%0%60%2%60%37%35%40%4%30%20%25%23%6%23%20%0%20%8%‑20%‑40%5%0%‑60%0%9%8%7%5%4%8.2%8.2%7.7%7.1%6.4%6.4%6.0%5.0%4.9%4.0%3.0%3.2%3.7%3.7%3.2%3.1%9%8%7%5%4%6.6%5.7%6.4%6.3%6.4%6.3%6.1%5.9%5.7%5.4%5.0%3.7%3.8%3.6%3.4%3.5%3.5%3%2%0%‑1%‑2%3%2%0%‑1%‑2%9%8%7%5%4%3%第四季度至第四季度个人消费支出通胀3.84.14.14.14.12%2.5%0%2224制造业财务状况制造业0110服务业采购经理人指数：服务业采购经理人指数：我们32.4%27.3%欧洲26.0%9.8%韩国4.2%4.0%亚太地区（日3.7%‑2.6%印度‑3.8%‑4.5%52.1%印度23.9%我们13.7%10.1%8.3%6.4%亚太地区（日3.1%‑3.7%欧洲‑5.7%韩国‑10.7%9.9%2.4%我们1.4%欧洲‑2.3%印度‑6.1%韩国‑6.3%‑7.6%亚太地区（日‑9.1%‑11.0%‑18.4%19.6%我们12.0%韩国9.2%亚太地区（日7.1%6.2%2.7%1.1%欧洲0.2%印度‑1.4%‑15.2%54.3%韩国47.8%印度38.8%亚太地区（日37.3%32.6%30.1%28.5%欧洲26.2%24.4%我们21.8%我们‑4.4%印度‑7.3%‑8.2%‑8.4%‑12.6%亚太地区（日‑13.7%欧洲‑14.3%‑18.7%韩国‑20.5%‑27.6%37.7%37.2%我们31.5%欧洲24.6%23.7%20.1%亚太地区（日19.5%韩国13.1%8.8%印度7.6%韩国45.2%42.0%38.4%29.7%亚太地区（日22.8%我们18.4%印度15.9%14.9%欧洲5.9%‑6.2%我们28.7%26.8%印度26.7%欧洲17.0%2.0%0.2%‑1.0%亚太地区（日‑2.7%韩国‑7.9%‑21.6%‑4.1%印度‑7.5%欧洲‑14.5%‑16.3%亚太地区（日‑17.2%我们‑18.1%‑21.8%‑26.5%韩国‑28.9%‑29.1%31.3%我们26.3%韩国23.6%印度21.3%20.8%欧洲20.7%亚太地区（日7.7%0.8%‑10.9%‑11.0%17.5%韩国15.4%印度12.0%我们11.7%欧洲11.1%8.2%亚太地区（日7.9%4.0%‑4.0%‑4.2%12.3%我们12.0%印度10.1%5.3%欧洲4.7%4.5%亚太地区（日4.2%韩国3.6%1.0%0.8%24.1%23.7%韩国21.9%19.7%印度19.1%亚太地区（日16.7%欧洲16.3%15.6%我们15.0%13.7%40%30%20%0%20.7%26.3%20.8%10.3%7.7%‑10%‑20%‑30%‑14.5%‑16.3%‑17.2%‑18.1%‑19.7%‑40%股息率80%20%18%18%18%14%60%14%15%11%40%10%9%10%7%6%20%5%5%20%5%5%4%5%0%0%0%‑20%‑5%‑40%‑8%‑10%‑‑10%‑60%‑11%‑11%‑80%‑80%亚太地区20亚太地区202122我们我们41.322.035.89.3往绩市净率4x4.03x2.438%36%34%32%标准普尔500指数估值价差30%28%26%24%22%20%4x增长对比价值评估*32材料10‑1‑2‑3‑0.8‑0.6‑0.4‑0.200.20.40.60.880%35.9%0.8%‑9.4%35.9%0.8%‑9.4%40%20%0%‑20%‑40%‑60%31.1%3.1%6.1%8.6%6.1%‑6.8%11.1%0.1%13.1%3.3%25.5%14.7%2.9%17.6%17.3%17.2%17.6%17.3%‑7.6%‑26.3%63.5%18.8%12.3%‑39.3%菲律宾泰国印度亚太地区香港韩国57.8%‑45.6%57.8%‑45.6%信息技术‑41.9%工业50%30%10%‑10%‑30%‑50%‑70%16.3%‑24.7%材料11.2%‑16.1%房地产20.6%14.2%‑12.5%消费者订书钉2.3%‑10.6%活力17.3%6.8%卫生保健9.3%7.6%金融45.8%46.1%45.8%37.3%17.5%15.8%17.5%沟通消费者沟通服务酌情决定的服务80%20040%1500%‑40%‑80%‑80%2.42.82.42.8PP22.5%3.5%5.1%4.7%12.5%7.1%8.6%3.9%8.1%2.5%21.4%100.0%2022年与标准普尔500指数相关5.2%‑6.3%‑0.4%‑4.0%‑2.6%4.7%11.0%13.3%‑1.0%‑3.2%‑4.1%‑15.3%‑20.2%‑10.5%‑20.7%‑14.0%‑4.0%8.4%‑28.7%‑8.4%‑33.0%‑17.2%0.81‑0.300.780.730.350.050.960.599.3%‑16.1%6.8%‑12.5%45.8%‑41.9%‑24.7%‑10.6%46.1%354.9%‑45.6%‑7.6%7.6%14.2%17.3%20.6%17.5%16.3%11.2%2.3%15.8%37.3%57.8%17.6%32.6%7.7%4.1%4.2%3.8%4.0%4.0倍4.9倍1.1%1.1%3.4倍3.2倍2.4%2.3%1.3%1.4%3.4%2.6%3.2%3.8%5.5%3.8%1.5%2.5%3.7%3.4%2.4%2.1%2.9%2.8%80%60%40%20%0%‑20%0‑40%‑60%70%50%40%30%20%0%‑10%‑20%‑30%0‑40%0700%股票票股票600%500%400%300%6%5%200%2.9%2.9%3.7%0%4%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%‑100%股息率60%50%40%30%20%0%‑10%‑20%‑30%‑40%部门重量(%)5.1100.019.75.7年30.23.25.4年2.680%60%40%40%20%0%‑20%‑40%4.412.98.8100.04.94.412.98.8100.04.9(%)年年年3.5倍3.0倍2.5倍5%4%3%2.0倍2%0.0x00%少于(%)40%30%20%0%‑10%‑20%‑30%‑40%部门重量(%)3.92.42.56.213.02.3100.010.98.88.628.912.6年年经济衰退48%12.17%经济衰退48%12.17%每股收益增长份额利润收入分享数每股收益总额‑1.9%2.9%‑0.2%0.8%3.1%4.1%0.3%7.5%40%25%14%14%15%14%9%7%6%7%6%6%‑3%‑16%‑16%‑16%21%12%12%12%12%5%0%0%1%1%‑14%4%收益增长基于分析师对每个历年的一致预测。过去2013年2014年7.4%8.3%2.0%7.5%0.0%6.1%‑1.4%6.1%‑1.4%5.5%‑1.5%5.1%‑2.7%2.5%‑4.5%0.7%‑6.6%0.0%‑9.0%‑5.7%2015年5.2%2.8%1.5%1.2%0.8%0.0%‑0.7%‑2.6%‑4.5%‑14.9%2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年17.1%15.2%1.8%14.5%9.9%5.3%1.5%13.4%9.3%美元11.2%9.3%1.0%14.4%9.7%0.0%‑11.0%12.7%8.5%美元我们我们10.2%7.5%0.9%14.3%8.0%‑1.0%‑11.2%10.5%8.1%9.9%6.9%‑0.7%13.5%7.1%‑1.0%‑11.7%8.5%7.8%6.1%6.8%‑0.8%12.8%6.3%‑1.5%‑11.8%7.0%7.5%5.8%6.4%‑2.1%11.3%5.9%‑2.3%‑12.5%5.1%7.2%1.7%5.8%‑2.5%6.9%4.9%‑2.4%‑15.1%5.0%6.3%1.6%2.5%‑3.2%6.4%3.9%‑6.5%‑15.8%4.8%5.7%我们我们美元1.0%2.3%‑4.6%6.0%2.7%‑8.7%‑16.5%4.1%5.7%0.3%0.8%‑6.2%2.2%0.5%‑11.0%‑17.2%4.0%1.4%4.6%3.1%3.1%3.0%1.9%1.4%11.3%10.1%8.7%7.6%6.8%6.4%4.8%4.8%4.7%1.2%2.0%0.5%2.0%0.5%0.1%‑0.1%）（）（5%4.45.96.12.7ABSABS28%24%20%22.5%8%4%0%‑4%‑8%10.5%‑1.3%14.6%13.0%0.8%‑0.9%11.5%1.4%11.0%2.0%10.7%4.4%12.1%10.5%8.4%6.2%6.1%6.1%6.2%2.4%‑0.5%‑‑0.5%‑3.7%‑12%‑10.6%‑16%x收益率变化2)）。3%‑3%业业）），3132700业业亚洲6%10%6%9%8%7%6%5%5%4%3%2%4%1%3%0%2%‑1%1%0%‑2%0%8810年通胀盈亏平衡30%30%最新的最新的的平均水平25%投资级132个基点20%经济衰退5%0%‑5%‑10%‑15%0‑20%0优惠券根据**传播全部的20%20%均2.4%**2.4%8%4%00%020%5.0倍5.55.04.54.08%6%3.56%4%4%3.4倍3.02%0%2.50%净杠杆率**利息保障倍数***投资等级5.04.54.03.53.02.52.0年初至今0抵押贷款支持证券‑2000‑2000BBB‑Baa3BBB‑Baa2BB巴2BB巴2‑8%‑4%4%JACI传播JACI05.4%3.7%‑1.4%‑1.5%债券‑2.6%‑6.6%‑9.3%5.5%5.5%3.3%3.1%2.8%‑0.3%‑0.7%‑3.2%‑3.4%‑4.9%‑9.1%5.8%2.1%5.8%‑0.8%‑1.2%‑2.5%‑3.5%‑4.6%‑6.0%‑8.2%2.2%5.9%‑9.7%3.5%2.0%‑1.0%‑1.5%‑2.4%‑2.7%‑4.7%5.7%5.1%5.7%4.4%4.2%3.7%3.1%3.1%3.0%4.8%摩根亚洲信用指数（亚洲债券）、彭博美国综合信贷–企业投）（50%40%30%20%50%40%30%20%0%0%‑10%‑20%‑30%‑40%‑10%‑20%‑30%‑40%03426经济衰退578912345678997年10月30日2010年7月5日2018年5月2日安然会计丑闻经济衰退–全球金融危机希腊救助计‑3.02%‑1.68%‑3.84%‑4.92%‑0.38%‑4.71%‑1.53%‑6.66%‑3.94%‑4.10%‑2.71%‑4.42%‑2.95%‑3.84%‑3.45%‑4.18%7.52%0.62%2.87%1.34%‑14.79%‑4.97%5.93%2.06%3.40%12.39%‑13.23%7.12%2.06%0.47%‑5.93%9.05%13.84%9.20%‑8.33%‑21.79%0.97%12.65%10.21%0.89%19.02%1.71%‑1.90%1.71%3.05%16.80%21.58%29.32%‑15.91%8.99%‑7.86%21.19%25.18%15.51%3.35%37.10%27.94%‑5.11%16.80%13.70%9指数3.0%经济衰退2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%‑0.5%‑1.0%54332最大限度0‑1‑2‑3‑3‑4‑4小麦‑20黄金(E)M&M(E)能源(E)能源(E)51.1%27.6%44.3%51.1%巧克力豆(E)17.1%巧克力豆(E)17.1%16.5%25.7%27.1%19.5%23.1%金(E)42.6%13.9%42.6%康德蒂。16.1%康德蒂。16.1%11.4%7.2%11.2%7.2%金(E)金(E)33.6%20.7%16.2%33.6%11.3%30.3%11.3%活力能量(E)能量(E)9.2%11.1%29.6%9.2%煤炭油铝14.0%13.8%10.6%8.5%巧克力豆(E)巧克力豆(E)23.0%6.6%3.8%‑6.5%活力10.2%8.1%6.4%5.7%10.6%19.0%7.2%16.1%铜金子活力13.4%能量(E)9.5%康德蒂。7.7%活力6.0%3.5%康德蒂。‑3.1%2.0%活力‑0.7%‑0.7%‑13.5%金(E)‑14.5%活力‑16.5%）（8.0%4.9%5.2%1.9%‑7.7%‑4.3%）（6.5%11.8%）（1.9%8.7%）（0.7%7.2%5.2%能量(E)‑28.5%金(E)‑7.7%‑27.1%康德蒂。‑7.9%康德蒂。‑4.6%0.2%0.0%是布伦特原油。荷兰天然气是荷兰TTF天然气近期月度数据(NDEXEUR/mwh)。HenryHubGas是亨利中心天然气现货价格（美元/百万业(E)彭博全球综合信贷–企业能源指数（能源(FI)彭博美国综合。信贷–企业高收益金属和矿业指数（美国M&M(FI)彭博欧企业金属和矿业指数（欧洲M&M(FI)摩根大通新兴市场企业信贷–企业金属和矿业指数(EMM&M(FI))。用于计算年化回报率(Ann.Ret.)的5年总回报数据和用于计算年化波动率(Ann.Vol.)的5年价格回报数据反映了‑1.5%4,000‑1.0%‑0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3,0000‑1,0003.0%‑2,000；（1819；（8.4%7.2%6.4%6.1%5.7%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.1%4%3.9%3.8%3.7%3.3%3.1%2.9%2.0%亚太地区真实的真实的真实的亚太地区50%股票20%债券30%替代品40%股票30%债券30%替代品全球债券1.0全球的债券全球的全球的债券全球房地产物资产我们核心RE全球的核公平我们核心RE全球的核公平长/S短相对的价值私人的公平直接的贷款宏观比特币核70%股票30%债券30%股票40%债券30%替代品60%股票40%债券全球的股票美国核心RE‑0.2亚太核心全球核心直接的贷款私募股权0.30.4‑0.1‑0.10.01.01.00.01.00.80.00.31.01.01.00.31.01.040%股票60%债券5%6%7%8%9%10%11%公平长短相对值0.