东盟与东亚经济研究所（ERIA）：东盟经济体的贸易特征、竞争网络和贸易脆弱性

ERIA-DP-2023-27

ERIADiscussionPaperSeries

No.499

DynamicsofTradeCharacteristics,Competition

Networks,andTradeFragilityinASEANEconomies

C.T.VIDYA*

AssistantProfessor,CentreforEconomicandSocialStudies(CESS),Hyderabad,India

February2024

Abstract:Thispaperanalysesthetradecharacteristics,competitionnetworks,andfragilityofglobaltradeingoodsintheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)economies,particularlyinthecontextofthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19).Thestudycoversthe10ASEANMemberStatesand110tradepartners,usingtheHarmonizedSystem(HS)6-digitproductclassificationfrom2010to2021.ThefindingsrevealthatASEANdominateswithtradecomplementarity.Denseandintensecompetitionnetworksarefound.Theelectricalandmachineryimportsfromcentralplayersarehighlysensitivetoshocks,withelectronicsalsobecomingsusceptibletoshocksafterthepandemic.ThestudyalsoshowsthatliquefiednaturalgasproductsandcountriessuchasSingapore,Indonesia,Brunei,andMyanmarexperiencedincreasedshocks.Theresearchunderscorestheimportanceofpolicymakersprioritisingtheirunderstandingoftradelinkagesandpotentialspillovereffectswhenformulatingpoliciestomitigatetheimpactofshocks.Thefindingshaveimplicationsforpolicymakers,highlightingtheneedforthemtotakeaholisticapproachwhendevisingpoliciesandstrategiestomitigatethe

adverseeffectsofglobalshocks.

Keywords:Exportsimilarity,tradecomplementarity,competitiontradenetworks,trade

fragility,ASEAN

JELClassification:F14,F15,L14

*Email:ctvidya@

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1.Introduction

Thisresearchpaperinvestigatesthetradecharacteristics,competitionnetworks,andfragilityofglobaltradeingoodsintheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)economies,particularlyinthecontextofthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemic’sunprecedentedimpactontheglobaleconomy.Oneofthemostsignificantimpactsofthepandemichasbeenthereductionininternationaltradeduetosupplychaindisruptions.Aseconomiesareheavilyinterdependentthroughglobalvaluechains,theresultingfragmentation

causedbythepandemichasdeepenedtraderelationsamongstnations.

Tradeanddevelopmentdependoncompetitivenessandcomplementarityamongstcountries.Tradeliberalisationcanleadtotradecompetitioniftwocountries’exportingstructuresaresimilar,limitingtheirpotentialforinter-countrytrade.However,iftheproductsimilarityincreasesovertime,theexportstructuresofthetwocountriesorregionsconverge,makingthemmorecompetitiveinthethirdmarket(FingerandKreinin,1979;Pearson,1994).Conversely,whentheexportingstructureofonecountryissimilartotheimportingstructureofanother,strongcomplementarityexistsbetweenthem,providingbetteropportunitiesfortradecooperation(Liu,Xu,andZhang,2020).TheASEANeconomies,inparticular,dependheavilyonChina,theirlargestexternaltradepartner,andarewellintegratedintoglobalsupplychains(ASEAN,2022).TheCOVID-19outbreakinChinaandsubsequentlockdownmeasuresdisruptedconnectivitybetweenASEANMemberStates(AMS)andtheirtradingpartners.Asaresult,theseeconomieshavebeenexposedtorisksofsupplychaindisruptions,whichhaveadverselyaffectedtheirproductivityandeconomicrecoveryfromtheCOVID-19inducedrecession.Intheaftermathofthecrisis,policymakershavebecomeincreasinglyconcernedaboutcountries’vulnerabilitytoexternalsectorshocksandtheirabilitytobuild

resilienceagainstfuturesupplychaindisruptions(Golan,Jernegan,andLinkov,2020).

ASEANhasemergedasaleadingblocpromotingtradeliberalisationandregionalism,withall10ASEANincreasingtheirtradeingoodsovertheyears.In2020,theregion’stotalexportswerevaluedat$1,356.89billion,whileimportswerevaluedat$1,234.34billion.ASEANeconomiesareintegratedwiththeinternationalmarketandserveasthemainmanufacturinghubforelectronics,machinery,automobileparts,andcomponents.However,recenttradetensionsandrisingproductioncostsinChinahaveledmultinationalcompaniestoshifttheiroperationstosomeASEAN,creatingAsiansupplychainsthatexcludeChina.AlthoughJapan,China,andtheRepublicofKorea(henceforth,Korea)dominateAsian

supplychains,VietNam’semergenceinthesupplychaincreatesopportunitiesforother

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AMS.However,theseeconomiesremainvulnerabletotradeshocksduetotheirrelianceon

Chinaandsupplychaindisruptions.

ThispaperemphasisestheimportanceofASEANeconomiesstrengtheningtheirresiliencetoexternalshocks,whichcanbeachievedbydiversifyingtheirtradepartners,analysingthefragilityofspecificproductgroups,andidentifyingcompetitionpatternsintradenetworks.ThestudywillprovideareferenceforquantifyingthefragilityoftradeingoodsinASEAN.Moreover,inthepolicydomain,mitigatingtherisksoffragilityand

strengtheningresiliencemayhelpinthelongrun.

Furthermore,understandingcompetitionpatternsintradenetworkscanprovidevaluableinsightsintothedynamicsoftradeandhowtheymayimpactthefragilityofglobaltradein

goods.Byidentifyingpotentialcompetitionclusters,policymakerscandevelopappropriate

strategiestoenhancetheircompetitivenessandreducetheirvulnerabilitytoexternalshocks.Second-generation2trademodelstheoreticallysupporttradeinterconnectednessand

competitionpatternsthroughnetworks,i.e.thenewtradetheory,whichassumestheexistenceofproductdifferentiation,increasingreturnstoscale,andimperfectcompetition(Krugman,1980;HelpmanandKrugman,1985).Duetothecomplexityandinterdependenceoftrade,thetradecompetitionpatternscallforcomplexnetworkanalysis(Liu,Xu,andZhang,2020).Asconsumers’demandforvarietyincreases,itimpactsmarketsizeandtradeopenness,fosteringproductvarietyandintra-industrytrade.ThepremiseoftheassumptionthatindustryconsistsofhomogenousproducerswasreconsideredinBernardandJensen(1995)andBernardetal.(2003).Meanwhile,Melitz(2003)discussedtheroleoftradeinintermediatesindeterminingtradepatterns.Heshowedthattradeinintermediatescanreallocateresourcesamongstfirms,withthemostproductivefirmsexpandingtheirexportsandtheleastproductivefirmsexitingthemarket.Thisreallocationofresourcesleadstoincreasedproductivityandeconomicgrowth.Manystudieshaveexaminedthecompetitivenessandcomplementarityoftradepatternsinsector-specificcasessuchasglobalwheattrade(Dongetal.,2018);globaloiltradenetworks(Zhang,Ji,andFan,2014);liquefiednaturalgas(Chenetal.,2016);ironore(Haoetal.,2018);andagri-trade(Liu,Xu,

andZhang,2020).

2First-generationtrademodelsemphasisedthebasicassumptionsoftheneo-classicaltradetheoryofcomparativeadvantage.However,theneo-classicaltradetheoryfailedtoexplainthenatureoftradepatternsamongstcountries,productvarieties,locations,andindustrialclusters.Theanswerisfoundinthesecond-generationmodels,i.e.newtradetheory.

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Mostoftheabovestudiesareonsector-specificcasesanddonotcoveraregiontorevealitstradedynamics.Moreover,theydonotcovertheCOVID-19period.Nguyen,Pham,andVallée(2017)investigatedexportsimilarityamongstASEAN+3countriesusingsimilarityindexanalysisfrom1990to2014.Thestudywasconfinedtointra-regionaltradepatternsanddidnotcoverpotentialpartnersfromextra-regionaltrade.AsASEAN’sextra-regionaltradeisfaraheadofintra-regionaltrade,thereisscopeforfurtherresearch.Identifyingsuchcharacteristicswouldhelppolicymakersunderstandthepatternofmultilateraltraderelationships.Untilrecently,studiesontradenetworkanalysisbasedonthecompetitivenessandcomplementarityofgoodshavebeenscarce.Inparticular,product-wisespatialdistributionbasedoncompetitivenessandcomplementarityhasnotbeenresearched(Liu,Xu,andZhang,2020).Studiesonthefragilityofthetradenetworkarealsorelativelyscarceintheliterature.However,thepioneeringworkofKorniyenko,Pinat,andDew(2017)analysedsupplyshockrisksinthehighlyinterconnectedglobalsystem.Theirstudyusedhighlydisaggregatedinternationaltradedatatoassessthespillovereffectsofsupplyshocks

fromtheimportofgoods.

Inthiscontext,thispaperdiscussesthefollowingquestions:(i)DoescompetitivenessorcomplementaritydominatetradeingoodsamongstASEANanditspartners?(ii)Hasthepatternoftradeingoodschanged,intermsofcompetitivenessandcomplementarity?(iii)Whichinter-regionalandintra-regionalcountrypairsarethemostcompetitive?(iv)HavecompetitionpatternsinthenetworkschangedsinceCOVID-19?(v)Whichproductsareconsideredrisky,andhowsensitivearetheimportbasketsinthetradenetworksinASEAN?and(vi)Istherearoleforcentralplayersinspreadingtheriskinessandvulnerabilityoftrade

ingoodsnetworks?

Tocomplementtheexistingliterature,thispaperempiricallyanalysesthechangesintradecharacteristicsandtradecompetitionpatternsintermsoftradenetworksinASEAN.Thestudyexploresintra-regionalandinter-regionaltradepatternsintheregion.Italsoattemptsto

measurethefragilityoftradenetworks.

TheapproachofthestudydelvesintothetradedynamicsbetweenASEANmemberstatesandtheir110globalpartners,focusingonthecompetitivenessandcomplementarityofmanufacturedgoods.WeemploytheExportSimilarityIndex(ESI)andtheTradeComplementarityIndex(TCI)attheHarmonizedSystem6-digitlevel,coveringtheyears2010to2021,togaugeintra-regionalandinter-regionaltradepatterns.Furtherenrichingouranalysis,weconstructtradenetworkmodelstoidentifycompetitionnetworkpatterns,

highlightingproduct-wiseleadingcountrypairsonintraandinter-regionalscales.This

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frameworkilluminatesthecentralplayers,thedepthofconnectivity,theextentofinterconnectedness,andtradedensitywithinandbeyondtheregion.Finally,thestudydelvesintothefragilityofthesetradenetworks,employingmetricslikecentralplayersandthe

clusteringcoefficienttomeasureproduct-wisevulnerabilities.

ThestudyhighlightsthedominanceoftradecomplementarityintheASEANregion,particularlyforproductssuchasbituminousminerals,naturalgas,andelectricalitems,leadingtoincreasedcompetitivenessandefficiency.Tradenetworksingoodsaredenseandcomplex,varyingacrossdifferentproductcategories.Electricalproducts,especiallythoserelatedtotelecommunications,arevulnerable,particularlysincethepandemic,emphasisingtheimportanceofeffectiveriskmanagementstrategiesforsupplychainresilience.Thestudyalsoidentifiedpotentialspilloverrisksamongstactivetradepartners,withproductslikebituminousminerals,liquefiednaturalgas,andtelephonesforcellularnetworkshavinghigh

clusteringcoefficients,indicatingahigherlikelihoodofspilloverrisks.

Themajorcontributionsofthestudyarethefollowing:ThisstudyexaminesthetradedynamicsintheASEANregionbyuniquelyencompassingtheimpactsoftheCOVID-19era.Unlikemuchofthecurrentliterature,whichoftenzeroesinonsector-specificscenarios,thisstudybroadensitsscopetoencapsulateintra-andinter-regionalASEANtradepatterns.Itbridgescriticalgapsinexistingstudiesandanalysestheproduct-wisespatialdistributionbasedoncompetitivenessandcomplementarityandthefragilityoftradenetworks.Richempiricalanalysesrevealnuancedinsights,suchasdominantpatternsoftradecomplementarityandthepronouncedvulnerabilitiesofcertainproductssincethepandemic.Theelucidationofcentralplayersandsensitiveproductsfromthefragilityanalysisprovidespolicymakerswithvaluableinformationfordevelopingtargetedpoliciestoimproveresilienceandmitigatethenegativeeffectsofshocks.Furthermore,thepaperaccentuatestheimperativeofsynchronisedpolicyinterventionsandregionalcollaborationamongstASEANMemberStates,underscoringthesignificanceofcooperativeapproachesinmitigatingsharedchallenges.Overall,thisstudy’sfindingsandpolicyimplicationsoffervaluableinsightsforpolicymakersandresearchersinterestedinunderstandingthevulnerabilityandresilienceof

interconnectedeconomiesintheASEANregionandbeyond.

1.1.LiteratureReview

Theglobaltradelandscapehaschangeddramaticallyoverthepastfewdecades(IMF,2011).SeminalstudiesonthedeterminantsofexportsandimportsincludeGoldsteinand

Khan(1978)andArize(1987).Thereisalsosubstantialliteratureonthesupplyanddemand

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oftradeandcompetitiveness(Farole,GuilhermeReis,andWagle,2010;Bayoumi,Saito,andTurunen,2013),aswellasresearchonthestructureandpatternsofglobaltradebasedontheworldtradenetworkapproach(Fagiolo,Reyes,andSchiavo,2010).However,thereisalackofstudiesmeasuringexportsimilarityandtradecomplementarityandtheircompetition

networks.Moreover,thefragilityofthiscompetitionnetworkisalsolessexplored.

Theconceptofcompetitivenessandcomplementarityamongstcountrieshasreceivedsignificantattentioninscholarlyresearch.Overalltradehasemergedasakeyindicatorofthedynamicrelationshipsamongstnations.Researchershaveextensivelyexploredthevariousaspectsoftradeanditseffectsoneconomicgrowth,development,andglobalisation.Forinstance,Rodrik(1999)foundthatoveralltradeopennesshasapositiveimpactoneconomicgrowth,whileSachsandWarner(1995)arguedthatitcanleadtoincreasedincomeinequality.Furthermore,tradecomplementarity,whichreferstothedegreeofcomplementaritybetweenthegoodsorservicesproducedbydifferentcountries,hasalsoreceivedsignificantattentioninscholarlyresearch.GrubelandLloyd(1975)demonstratedthatcountrieswithhighlevelsoftradecomplementaritytendtoengageinmoretradeandhavemorestabletraderelationships.Asforrelevantresearchmethods,traditionalanalysisoftradecompetitivenessandcomplementarityhasmainlybeendoneusingtherevealedcomparativeadvantage(RCA)index(Balassa,1965).Later,theexportsimilarityindex(ESI)wasdevelopedbyFingerandKreinin(1979)andthetradecomplementarityindex(TCI)wasdevelopedbyDrysdale(1969)andKojima(1964).FingerandKrenin(1979)developedtheESItoidentifyregionsthatarelikelytobeengagedintradecompetition–thehighertheESI,

themoreintensethecompetitiverelationshipsbetweenthetworegions.

Tradeliberalisationhasbeenfoundtopromoteincreasedcompetition,spurinnovationandproductivitygrowth,andprovideopportunitiesforgrowthanddiversification.Tradecanfostercomplementarityamongstcountriesbypromotingtheexchangeofgoodsandservicesthatarecomplementaryinnature,leadingtospecialisationandincreasedefficiency.Forexample,acountrythatexcelsinproducingcapital-intensivegoodscanbenefitfromimportinglabour-intensivegoodsfromanothercountry.Numerousstudieshaveexploredtheimpactoftradeoncompetitivenessandcomplementarity.Similarly,HummelsandKlenow(2005)showedthattradecanleadtocomplementaritybypromotingtheexchangeofgoodsthatcomplementeachother.EmpiricalresearchstudiesbyLingzhi(2021);Liu,Xu,andZhang,2020);andDongetal.(2018)usedtheESIandtheTCItoquantifythecompetitivenessandcomplementarityofdifferentcountrypairs.Thestudy,whichfocusedon

thecocoonsilktrade,revealedthatChina’ssilktradewithSoutheastAsiaishighly

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complementary.Inrecentyears,studieshavebeenextendedtoexaminingthecompetitivenessandcomplementarityoftheconstructionofthedynamicnetworkapproach.Forexample,Dongetal.(2018)examinedthecompetitivenessofglobalwheattradebycreatingatradingcompetitivenessnetwork,whileLiu,Xu,andZhang(2020)analysedthecompetitivenessandcomplementarityofagriculturaltradeamongst65countriesintheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)from2005to2016.Thestudyrevealedthatnetworktiesamongstsamplecountriesincreasedovertime.ThetradedensityoftheESIandTCI-networksalsoincreasedovertime,butthecomplementaritywasgreaterthanthecompetitiveness.Similarly,severalotherstudiesontradecomplementaritybetweenChinaandBRIcountrieshavefoundthatcomplementarityishigherthancompetitiveness(Han,Luo,andZou,2015;Wang,2017;

Chen,Chen,andYao,2020).

Researchonsector-specificcompetitionpatternsoffersessentialinsightsintoglobalmarketdynamics.Chen(2016)usednetworkanalysistoexaminethecompetitivelandscapeofthegloballiquefiednaturalgas(LNG)trade.ThestudyfoundthatcompetitiverelationshipsamongstLNGexportersincreasedsignificantlyfrom2005to2014,shiftingfromregionaltomoreglobalisedcompetition.Similarly,Hao,An,Sun,andZhong(2018)usedcomplexnetworkanalysistoexplorecompetitionpatternsinglobalironoretrade.Theirfindingsrevealedacore-peripherystructureintheironoreimportcompetitionnetwork,withintensifyingcompetitionovertheyears.Thestudyfurtherfoundthatcorecountriesexhibitedhighercompetitionintensitythanperipheralcountries,withcompetitionintensitycorrelatingpositivelywithGDPandsteelproductionandinverselywithgeographicdistancebetween

tradepartners.

Inconclusion,theliteratureontradeandcompetitivenessemphasisesthecrucialrolethattradeplaysinenhancingtheeconomicperformanceofcountries.Byunderstandingtheintricaciesoftraderelationships,policymakerscanmakebetterdecisionstopromote

economicgrowthandstability.

Anotherstrandofliteratureisonthetradenetworksinacompetitionpattern.Therearemanystrandswithinnetworkliteratureinthecontextofinternationaltrade.Inacomplexnetworkmodel,theworldisconsideredasetconsistingofmanyvertices(i.e.countries)andedgesbetweenthesevertices(countries).TheevolutionoftheworldtradenetworkortheWorldTradeWebhasbeenstudiedasabinarynetwork,whereanedgebetweenanytwocountriesisconsideredinterconnecteddependingonwhetherthetradeflowislargerthanagiventhreshold(DeBenedictisandTajoli,2011;SerranoandBoguná,2003).However,ina

binarynetwork,alltheinterconnectionsaretakenasequal,whichmaymisestimatetheimpact

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oftraderelationshipheterogeneity.Hence,theworksofGarlaschelliandLoffredo(2004)andFagiolo,Reyes,andSchiavo(2008)adoptedweightednetworkapproachestocomparethe

degreesandpatternsoftradeintegration.

Onestrandisbasedonapositionalanalysisofthetradeandintegrationpatternsofeachcountry(KaliandReyes,2010;Vidya,2022;VidyaandPrabheesh,2020),whileanothercomprisesstudiescentredonthesector-specificanalysisofinternationaltradenetworks(AmighiniandGorgoni,2014;Vidya,Mummidi,andAdarsh,2023).Advancedtestingofcomplementarityandcompetitivenessinanetworkiscarriedoutbyafewstudiesinspecificcommoditycontexts(Liu,Xu,andZhang,2020;Zhang,Ji,andFan,2014;Chenetal.,2016;Dongetal.,2018).Thethirdstrandofliteratureanalysestheshocksandfragilityinamodel.Althoughseveralstudiesmeasureandanalysetheshocksinaneconomicsystembyapplyingeconometricapproaches(KoseandRiezman,2001;FrankelandRose,1998;Imbs,2004),theliteratureislargelysilentonmeasuringthevulnerabilitiesandshocksinintermediatetrade

andsupplyshocks.

Globalshocks–intheformofwars,economicrecessions,andpandemics–severelydisrupttheinterconnectionsandgeneratecascadingconsequencesfromthelocaltotheglobalscale(ViñaandLiu,2023).Theimpactofashockcanbeincreasedthroughinterconnectednessoftheglobaleconomy.Forexample,theCOVID-19pandemicoriginatedinChinabuthashadasignificantimpactoncountriesallovertheworld.ResearchbyBarbero,deLucio,andRodríguez-Crespo(2021)andDudekandŚpiewak(2022)supportsthisview.Theyfoundthatglobalshockscanhaveasignificantimpactontheglobaleconomy,whichcanbeamplifiedbytheinterconnectednessoftheglobaleconomy.Theynotedthatpolicymakersneedtobeawareofthepotentialimpactofglobalshocksandtakestepstomitigatetheimpactofsuchshocks.StudiesbyGuerrierietal.(2020),Abbasetal.(2021),andGruszczynski(2020)discussthelargedisruptionstolaborsupply,supplychains,thetourismindustry,andinternationaltradecausedbythepandemic.Thedisruptionscausedbythepandemichaveledtoadecreaseintheflowofgoodsandservices,negativelyimpactingtheglobaleconomy.ApioneeringworkinthefieldofsupplyshockrisksinthehighlyinterconnectedglobalsystemwasconductedbyKorniyenko,Pinat,andDew(2017).Theyfoundthatashocktoahighlyinterconnectedeconomyexposesothereconomiesinthe

networktoequalrisk,aseacheconomyisdependentontheothers.

FollowingtheworkofKorniyenko,Pinat,andDew(2017),weassessthesensitivityofimportbasketstosupply-sideshocksusingnetworkanalysisparameters.Weanalyse

individualcommoditycharacteristics,suchasquality,cyclicality,andcomplexity,toestimate

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theriskinessandvulnerabilityofimportbaskets.Thisisdonebyconsideringthepresenceofcentralplayersandclusteringtendencies.Ourmethodologyhelpsidentifyvulnerableproductsinglobaltradebasketsbycategorisingthemastopexportersandimportersofthese

products.

First,weaimtoanalysethetradecompetitivenessandcomplementaritybetweenASEANandtheirtradepartners.Toachievethis,wemeasuretheESIandTCIfortheHarmonizedSystem(HS)6-digitlevelmanufacturingproductsofASEAN,andanalysethecompetitivenessandcomplementarityofAMSandtheirtradepartnersusingtradenetwork

analysis.

Second,weaimtoanalysethefragilityofthetradenetworksandproposeeffectivemitigationpolicymeasuresforASEAN.Toachievethis,wemeasuretheriskinessofproductsandtheintensityofshocksbeforeandaftertheCOVID-19pandemic.Wealsoanalysethevulnerabilityofspecificsectorsindifferentcountriesandinvestigatehowthese

sectorsrespondedtoexternalshocks.

Basedonourfindings,weprovidesuggestionsandproposeeffectivemitigationpolicyactionstoimprovetheresilienceofthetradenetworksandenhancethecompetitivenessof

theASEAN.

2.DataandMethodology

ThestudyusesthebilateralgoodstradedataofASEANfrom2010to2021fromtheInternationalTradeCentredatabase.TheHS6-digitlevelgoodsareapplied.Thesampleconsistsofthe10ASEANandthe110leadingpartnersofASEAN.TheHScodesand

classificationsaregiveninTable1.

Table1:Top10ExportsofGoodsbyHS6-DigitCode–ASEAN

HSCode

ShortProductName

DetailedProductName

HS

854231

Electronics–

integratedcircuit–processors

Electronicintegratedcircuitsasprocessorsand

controllers,whetherornotcombinedwithmemories,converters,logiccircuits,amplifiers,clockandtiming

circuits,orothercircuits

HS

854239

Electronics–

integratedcircuits

Electronicintegratedcircuits

HS

271019

Bituminous

mineralswithout

biodiesel

Petroleumoilsandoilsfrombituminousminerals,notcontainingbiodiesel,notcrude,notwasteoils;

preparationsn.e.c.containingbyweight70%ormore

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HSCode

ShortProduct

Name

DetailedProductName

ofpetroleumoilsoroilsfrombituminousminerals;notlightoilsandpreparations

HS

851712

Telephonesfor

cellularnetworks

Telephonesforcellularnetworksorforotherwireless

networks

HS

851770

Electricalpartsoftelephone

Telephonesetsandotherapparatusforthetransmissionorreceptionofvoice,images,orotherdata,viaawiredorwirelessnetwork;parts

HS

854232

Electronics-

memories

Electronicintegratedcircuitsasmemories

HS

271012

Bituminous

minerals

Petroleumoilsandoilsfrombituminousminerals,notcontainingbiodiesel,notcrude,notwasteoils;

preparationsn.e.c.containingbyweight70%ormoreofpetroleumoilsoroilsfrombituminousminerals;lightoilsandpreparation

HS

847170

Storageunitsfordataprocessing

Unitsofautomaticdataprocessingmachines;storage

units

HS

271111

Naturalgas

liquefied

Petroleumgasesandothergaseoushydrocarbonsliquefied,naturalgas

HS

851762

Electrical

communication

apparatus

Communicationapparatus(excludingtelephonesetsorbasestations);machinesforthereception,conversionandtransmissionorregenerationofvoice,images,orotherdata,includingswitchingandroutingapparatus

ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations,HS=HarmonizedSystem,n.e.c.=notelsewhereclassified.

Notes:Theshortproductnamesarecreatedbytheauthortomakethediscussionclearandspecific.ThedetailedproductnamesaretakenfromtheUnitedNationsStatisticsDivision.

Source:UnitedNationsStatisticsDivision(n.d.),Classifications

/unsd/classifications/Econ

(accessed10August2022).

onEconomic

Statistics.

Empiricalmethodology

ExportSimilarityIndex(ESI):isemployedtomeasurethedegreeofsimilaritybetweentwocountriesconcerningtheirexportproductcompositionstoasharedtarget

market.Theformulaforitscalculationisasfollows:

InEquation(1),xadenotestheexportvalueofaproductiinacountrya;xasignifiesthetotalexportvalueofcountryaastotheglobalmarket.Similarly,xsindicatestheexportvalueofproductiinacountryb,xprepresentsthetotalexportvalueofcountrybastothe

worldmarket.ESImeasuresthetradecompetit