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3842266479.咖啡店做调110.MarketCo.33842266479.咖啡店做调110.MarketCo.3378415.卖interactiveonline (more152527222.Olympic541425.开连锁药1127.38434333.开连锁药134.541425.开连锁药1127.38434333.开连锁药134.54673315243.544.132目 2.HR要为业绩下滑负 目 2.HR要为业绩下滑负 7.摩托公司生产 8.培训软件的建议(考古 9.咖啡店做调 10.MarketCo.提高顾客 13.摩托公司和广 547.CEO建议（考古248.小岛举办足球赛（考古149.Localcookingbook150.Local114.工作建 15.interactiveonline(moredetails 14.工作建 15.interactiveonline(moredetails 17.老板以前是 18.Restwayhotel(moredetails 19.健身中心建游泳 19.收购一个cloth商场(moredetails 20.三家 21.服装店和音乐 22.Olympic 23.MarketCo.提高顾客 27.减少新航 28.开 29.提高地铁载客 30.手机稀有金 31.环境条 632.给高级轿车打广 33.开连锁药 34. 35.轮胎公 32.给高级轿车打广 33.开连锁药 34. 35.轮胎公 36.健身器材和杂 37.摩托公司收 38.localsandwich加盟连锁 39.amusementpark 41.吸引更多青少 42.开分 43.软件公司临时 44.购买不动 45.outsource的眼镜 46.城市巴士提 47.CEO建议（考古 48.小岛举办足球赛（考古 49.Localcooking 750.Local 七宗罪简述:(FromCD第一50.Local 七宗罪简述:(FromCD第一宗罪:无因果联Theauthorcommitsafallacyofcausaloversimplification.ThelineofthereasoningisbecauseAoccurredbeforeB,theformereventisresponsibleforthelatter.(TheauthorthepositivecorrelationbetweenAandBtoestablishcausality.However,thefactthatcoincideswithBdoesnotnecessarilyprovethatAcausedB.)Butthisisfallaciousunlessotherpossiblecausalexplanationshavebeenconsideredandruledout.ForperhapsCisthecauseoftheseeventsorperhapsBiscausedby第二宗Insufficient-Theevidencetheauthorprovidesisinsufficienttosupporttheconclusiondrawnfromit.exampleislogicallyunsoundedtoestablishageneralconclusion(Thestatisticsfromonlyarecentyearsarenotnecessarilyagoodindicatoroffuturetrends),unlessitcanbeshownA1isrepresentativeofallA.Itispossible Infact,infaceofsuchlimitedevidence,conclusionthatBiscompletely第三宗罪:错误类比(basedonafalseanalogy横向TheargumentrestsontheassumptionthatAisanalogoustoBinallrespects.Thisisweak,sincealthoughtherearepointsofcomparisonbetweenAandB,thereis8 Thus,itislikelymuchmore Thus,itislikelymuchmoredifficultforto第四宗allthingsareequal<纵向Theauthorcommitsthefallacyof“allthingsareequal”.Thefactthathappenedtwoyearsisnotasoundevidencetodrawaconclusion Theauthorassumeswithoutthatthebackgroundconditionshaveremainedthesameatdifferenttimesoratlocations.However,itisnotclearinthisargumentwhetherthecurrentconditionsatAAaresameastheyusedtobetwoyearsago.Thusitisimpossibletoconclude第五宗Either-OrTheauthorassumesthatAAandBBaremutuallyexclusivealternativesandthereisnoroomamiddleground.However,theauthorprovidesnoreasonforimposinganeither-orCommonsensetellsusthatadjustingbothAAandBBmightproducebetter第六宗surveyisThepollcitedbytheauthoristoovaguetobeinformative.Theclaimdoesnotindicateconductedthepoll,whoresponded,orwhen,rmationaboutthenumberofpeoplesurveyedandthenumberofrespondents,itimpossibletoaccessthevalidityoftheresults.Forexample,if200personsweresurveyedonly2responded,theconclusionthat...wouldbehighlysuspect.Becausetheargumentnoevidencethatwouldruleoutthiskindofinterpretations,)Untilthesequestionsaretheresultsofthesurveyareworthlessasevidenceforthe第七宗gratuitousTheauthorfalselydependsongratuitousassumption 9theargumenttosupportthisassumption.Infact,theargumenttosupportthisassumption.Infact,thisisnotnecessarilythecase.Foritismorelikely 1.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheownerofCarlo'sClothingtothe"SinceDiscDepot,themusicstoreonthenextblock,begananewradioadvertisingcampaignyear,itsbusinesshasgrowndramatically,asevidencedbythelargeincreaseinfoottrafficintothestore.WhiletheDiscDepot'sownershaveapparentlybecomewealthyenoughtoretire,profitsatCarlo'sClothinghaveremainedstagnantforthepastthreeyears.Inordertoboostoursalesandprofits,weshouldthereforeswitchfromnewspaperadvertisingtofrequentradioadvertisementslikethoseforDisc>>>参考思1.错误类比：DDmusicstore与C的服饰店无可比性，不能说广告就适用C3.因果关系：没有说电台广告与业务量增长有必然因果关系。OtherfactorsotherthanradioadvertisementthatmaycontributetothebusinessgrowthofDiscdepotshouldbeconsideredandruledout.比如促销，请了明星做活动等等。. >>>考ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheCEOofaconsumerelectronicsmanufacturingfirmtotheheadThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheCEOofaconsumerelectronicsmanufacturingfirmtotheheadofthecompany'shumanresourcesdepartment,whoisresponsibleforhiringnew“Eightyearsago,ourfirm’sprofitswereincreasingwitheachnewemployeeweadded.Wediscoveredthateachemployeehadtheskillsandmotivationtogeneratemorerevenueforthefirmthanhisorhersalarycostus.However,forthepasttwoyears,ourprofitmarginhasbeenfalling,eventhoughwehavecontinuedtoaddemployees.Thus,ournewemployeesarenotgeneratingenoughrevenuetojustifytheirsalaries.Wemustnotbehiringnewemployeeswiththesamelevelofskillsandmotivationasthoseweusedtoattract.Clearly,then,failuresinthehumanresourcesdepartmentaccountforourfallingprofits.>>>参考思1.GratuitousAssumption:ABunjustifiedsalariesemployee创造的revenue下降,下降也可能是由于职工所在部门的部门经理的管理能力不足。Humanresourcesdepartmentunjustifiedsalaries,HR一CEO2.充分必要条件:fallingprofits下降,比如产品已经过时,3.allthingsareequal:过去经验现在不一定适用,3.>>>考3Alligard市，有我们的两大rival。其中KulbyDrug在该市势（我们的价格优势得益于向供应商进大量的药品）来吸引KDlongtimecustomer。综上，我们可以成为A市的leadingdrugstoreoperationV2Holner'sAllegardkirbydrug的当地连锁药V2Holner'sAllegardkirbydrug的当地连锁药kirbydrug还是有很多的长期顾客。lowerpriceonnationalbrandskirbyHolner’s就傻V1byV2byKirbylongtimecustomerKirby的服务，所以Kirby>>>参考思>>>考古原Thefollowingappearedaspartofanarticleinamagazinedevotedtoregional“CorporationsshouldlooktothecityofHelioswhenseekingnewbusinessopportunitiesornewlocation.Evenintherecentrecession,Helios’sunemploymentratewaslowerthantheregionalaverage.Itistheindustrialcenteroftheregion,andhistoricallyithasprovidedmorethanitsshareoftheregion’smanufacturingjobs.Inaddition,Heliosisattemptingtoexpanditseconomicbasebyattractingcompaniesthatfocusonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovative>>>参考思1.无根据假设：H是industrialcenter>>>参考思1.无根据假设：H是industrialcenteroftheregion不代表companiesthatfocusonresearchdevelopmentofinnovativetechnologieswillachievein分的竞争，以及可能出现的不利政策，都可能导致H3.因果关系：expandeconomicbase也不能仅仅依靠attract.>>>参考范InthisargumentcorporationsareurgedtoconsiderthecityofHelioswhenseekingalocationornewbusinessopportunities.Tosupportthisrecommendation,theauthorpointsoutthatHeliosistheindustrialcenteroftheregion,providingmostoftheregion’smanufacturingjobsandenjoyingalower-than-averageunemploymentrate.Moreover,itisargued,effortsarecurrentlyunderwaytoexpandtheeconomicbaseofthecitybyattractingcompaniesthatfocusonresearchanddevelopmentofinnovativetechnologies.ThisargumentisproblematicfortwoTobeginwith,itisquestionablewhethertheavailablelaborpoolinHelioscouldsupportallofcorporations.GiventhatHelioshasattractedmainlyindustrialandmanufacturingcompaniesinthepast,itisunlikelythatthelocalpoolofprospectiveemployeeswouldbesuitableforcorporationsofothertypes.Forexample,theneedsofresearchanddevelopmentcompanieswouldnotbemetbyalaborforcetrainedinmanufacturingskills.Forthisreason,it’sthatHelioswillbesuccessfulthatHelioswillbesuccessfulinitsattempttoattractcompaniesthatfocusorresearchAnotherproblemwiththeavailableworkforceisitssize.DuetothelowerthanunemploymentrateinHelios,corporationsthatrequirelargenumbersofworkerswouldnotfindHeliosattractive.ThefactthatfewpersonsareoutofworksuggeststhatnewcorporationswillhavetoeitherattractnewworkerstoHeliosorpaytheexistingworkershigherwagesinordertolurethemawayfromtheircurrentjobs.NeitherofthesealternativesseemsenticingtocompaniesseekingtoInconclusion,theauthorhasnotsucceededinprovidingcompellingreasonsforselectingasthesiteforacompanywishingtorelocate.Infact,thereasonsofferedfunctionbetterreasonsfornotrelocatingtoHelios.NorhastheauthorprovidedcompellingreasonsforcompaniesseekingnewbusinessopportunitiestochooseHelios.5.>>>考MegaBeautyMega点结合后面的美国分销商）havehadbeenwellknowninEurope,butintheU.S.wehavehaddifficultyselling还是gettingmarket,ceocarefulconsiderationdistributorMega-Beautynetworkthatindustry,agreementKlongtermgrowthinterestdistributor20discountbrand1500>>>参考思6.咖啡店做调>>>考们把网站地址在每张收据上都有写，所以thefeedbackpagecanbeeasilyfoundbycustomers。However,theyonlyreceived一个相对小的数字的complaintsandsuggestionswhilethenumberofcupsofcoffeetheysoldonlinewasFEEDBACK3000所以对于给feedback应该所以对于给feedback应该是没问题的。在给予300000的服product150多给了complaint(orfeed)，50多了suggestions.因此，CEO觉得说almostallofourcustomersaresatisfiedwithourserviceandprodct,andwedonotneedtomake考7.>>>考V2.某摩托车生产公司有twoproductionlines，手工线生产luxurymotorcycles,buttheproductionrequiresmoreexpensivematerialandlongertime;机器人线生产standardmotorcycles,.公司将cease豪华车生产线inordertoproduceagreatnumberofmotorcyclesmoreefficientlyandgetmore>>>参考思.8.培训软件的建议(考古>>>本月原V1:作文是培训软件的建议，说是无论培训新.V2:corporationincreaseproductivitycutcost,corporation采取的措施是purchaseonlineself-trainingprogram.employees在家自己上网学习，从而decrease公司的cost.员工们学习了onlinetrainingcourse之后就可以让V3:一个I公司的sisocure宣传他们的oineseftaiigrogam给各个oaios.1I何评价这个段落>>>考古ThefollowingappearedinabrochurefromIntelliTrain,acompanythathelpscorporationsdevelopinteractiveonlineself-trainingprogramsfortheiremployees:“You’vejusthiredanewemployee,butthatnewemployeeisfarfromreadytocontributetoyourcompany.Everyhourspenttrainingthisemployeeisanhouroflostproductivity,bothforthenewemployeeandfortheexperiencedemployeedoingthetraining.Ourinteractiveonlineprogramsallownewemployeestotrainthemselves.Thismakestrainingmoreefficientandreducesthenumberofworkforcehoursdevotedtotraining,resultinginanewemployeewhoisbetterpreparedtocontributeeffectivelytoyourbusiness.Furthermore,thecostofthetrainingprogramswillbemorethanoffsetbythemoneysavedinreducingworkforcehourscurrentlydevotedtotraining.Purchasingouronlineself-trainingprogramswillhelpyourcorporationreducecostsincreaseprofitability.”Discuss>>>参考思can'tmakeatraineetrainer,simplybecausetrainingrequiresanin-depthknowledgeofwhattoteach.ifaguyknewitalready,heorshewouldn'tneedatraining.sopartoftheargumentjustlogicallycontradictsanohter:itisdesignedtotrainapersonbyassumingthatpersonisalreadyknowledgeableenoughtotrainhimself.thisisludicrous.2.trainingnewemployeesisn'tjustasimple>>>参考思can'tmakeatraineetrainer,simplybecausetrainingrequiresanin-depthknowledgeofwhattoteach.ifaguyknewitalready,heorshewouldn'tneedatraining.sopartoftheargumentjustlogicallycontradictsanohter:itisdesignedtotrainapersonbyassumingthatpersonisalreadyknowledgeableenoughtotrainhimself.thisisludicrous.2.trainingnewemployeesisn'tjustasimpleprocessofteachingthemskillsandtechniques,butmoreaprocesstoadoptthemintothenewenvironmentandbuilduptheirpersonalnetwork.onlineprogramwilldeprivethemofthisopportunityofinteractingwiththeexperiencedemployees.Andtheargumentjustarbitrarilyassumesthatsuchaprocessasseeminglytakesupsomeworkingtime,iscounterproductive.Actuallyinalongrun,thisfamiliarizationandadoptationwillboostthepopejustpaidablockbustervisittomycityamonthago,showingthatsomehalfofworld'spopulationbelievethateventhoughthelightisintheirheartandthebookattheirdesk,theguidancefromaboveneedstopassedontothemthroughatutor.Butasalesmanofanonlineprogramdefinitelybelongstotheotherhalf,holdingabeliefthatwiththelightinhisheartandabookathand,hecanbebrightanywhereonlyifhedigs9.咖啡店做调>>>考Bygreenfield还是greengrocersalesprofit吅作来吸引顾客，因为他们和光顾那家cafe的groupV1by说theCupCafe公司CEO在report里面提到他们三个月前在receipt里面添加了一个V1by说theCupCafe公司CEO在report里面提到他们三个月前在receipt里面添加了一个linksubmitsuggestionsandcomplaints.149五十几条是网上提交，因此得出结论顾客satisfiedwithcurrentthefeedbackpagecanbeeasilyfoundbycustomersHowever,theyonlycomplaintsandsuggestions，whilenumberofcupsofcoffeetheysoldonlinewas客很满意，不需要改进了V2：有一个咖啡公司叫hotcoffeexxx做了一个调查，发现只有283个negativefeedbackalltheparticipant.FEEDBACK300078名有EVALUATEIMPROVEV4HotCupCafe不需要做任何改进。CafeCEOcomplaint，在全部的收据上都很清楚的注明如何到的网站上给feedbackorcomplaint，所对于给feedback应该是没问题的。在给予300000的服务和product中，只有150多给了complaint(orfeed)，50suggestions.因此，CEOalmostallofourcustomersaresatisfiedwithourserviceandprodctandwedonotneedtomakeimproveinprogress可能漏了一些信息，不过主要点都有写出来V5 芦苇薇薇等是讲一个company的cafechai（啡连锁店之类的的service部门调查他们的顾客的feedback，websitepagepage30000顾客中网站158complaints53suggestionsprocedure不需要改进V6就写的是那coffee馆的有feedback的，说一个卖咖啡的公司在网站上发问卷，并把问卷地址59个suggestion。然后author认为客户对他们的服务和商品都很满意，所以不需要改V7 狗主碰到的是咖啡店调查客户满意度的那题狗主碰到的是咖啡店调查客户满意度的那题里头有V8ByRhea-说有一篇给老板 report，在他的反馈网站里，只有一百多个抱怨，而在有反馈网站运行的六月中卖了300000杯咖啡，所以说他们不用改善自己的产品和服考10.MarketCo.提高顾客>>>考V1题目说为了提高本地居民对MarketColoyaltyMarketCo.高自己的知名庙(oftenseen),这样可以persuade居民去他那买东西,课外活劢,足球比赛艺术展览神马的。我就是主要吏槽他oftenseen丌一定能提高啊,loyalty和sales相关又丌是oftenseen就可以,V2MarketCoresearch,localconsumerwilldeveloployaltytothatcausethemtokeepshopping.所以这个公司的负责人建议MartketComovesometheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingoflocalcommunity.(V1BYmining公司因为前景丌好,有然后调查显示是因为loyalty问题。然后M就要资劣社区活劢V1BYmining公司因为前景丌好,有然后调查显示是因为loyalty问题。然后M就要资劣社区活劢,来提高loyalty,以提高在这个城市中的V3by(蔲拉表示跟JJ丌太一样啊0,0哪有soccer,难道是狗主把这个题和16题搞混了是搞基建)localpeopleMarketCo买东西,increasethelocalmarketDevelopcustomerloyalty.大致是这样的>>>参考思1.Thestatisticallyreliabilityofsurvey/research(whoconducted,whoorhowthesurveywere2.错误因果:调整宣传的预算搞基建就能让localpeople在MarketCo买东西?忠诚庙是一个漫长的过程,这样直接assume太天真了啦3.无关假设movesomeoftheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingofincreasethelocalmarketshare,更丌能说就能develop>>>考V1：讲FF公司的cereal以前是adultwomen买的多V1：讲FF公司的cereal以前是adultwomen买的多但是last2years据显示consumerFFcerealchildrenV2：woman比mancerealfood.而丏由亍近些年children增长了15%~20%,所以应该增加针对children的cereal.还要做广告神马的,,由亍这个corporationwillstandout,所以他们的profitV3：一个公司叨做Fieflake经营cerealline.过去一直65%消费者主要是adultwomen。是过去两年 increase16%to25%.因此，公司的新策略是转移正 children.这个wholefamily.别的公司也是对wholefamily.生产children'sline这样叧有它一个公司生产这种东西可以避免竞争力和增加销>>>参考思1childrenChildren 更换产品包装，新产品推广成本可能大亍销售的增加 其他公司可能也在准备children包装，戒是迅速模仿，竞争力已然存>>>本月原luxuryhotelconventionvisitor的税收，减luxuryhotelhotel50%booked。（这里我应该没看明白，没找到攻击点）luxuriou服务hotelluxuryhotel花钱的。（>>>考V1ByV2ByV2By“Bcenterluxuryhotelluxuryhotelguestspaymorethantheconventionalhotel.然后这样就可以增加城市的taxrevenue.增加了城市的revenuelocalresidentswouldnotneedtopaymoreforthetotaltaxrevenue.centerhotels50ofthecapacity,luxuryhoteltaxrevenue,conventioncenter（conven,out-townvisitorslocalpeoplevisitorluxuryhotel会很蠢的付更多钱（大概意思就是这个房间本来一晚叧要200说本地政店为了实现税收目标，taxrevenueincrease本地有个会展中心（convention说本地政店为了实现税收目标，taxrevenueincrease本地有个会展中心（conventioncenter）是一个themorethelessout-of-towntaxtax就可以丌用交太多税了，税收挃标由这些外地土豪买单了。另外这个convention叧有>>>参考思13.>>>本月原V1:motorcycle公司的一个survey90%的顾客认为socialnetworkingwebsites的广告对他V1:motorcycle公司的一个survey90%的顾客认为socialnetworkingwebsites的广告对他televisionradioadssales就websitesbudgettelevisonradio广告，这>>>考onsocialnetworkingwebsiteshasbeeninefficient.InasurveyofONEsuchwebsite(?),V3By>>>参考思2.因果关系-错误因果：2.因果关系-错误因果：70%sellspecific.和14.>>>本月原>>>考ByByhousehold因此，officejobleadtomoreByV2peopleworkingathome，asteadyofficejob有schedule啊，最后就说在家working会使自己的社交圈和朋友圈isolated，因此对>>>参考思4.因果关系-忽略他因：一个人在完全与外界社会隔绝时会被sociallyanddetails>>>本月原details>>>本月原>>>考.gymcustomer（gym锻炼的人群）customers食健康的.foodgrocerygymlocationorganicfoodgroceryV3BYgymCornerorganicfoodstationV3BYgymCornerorganicfoodstation>>>参考思.17.老板以前是>>>考V2JJ里有;throughvariousretailstors团队，CEO很成功，曾经是rockstar,所以相信他的名声会有助于产品销售。2.该公司管理层aggressivelypursueexpansion.现在在outletretailstoresinshoppingmallsalloverthe.V4financialanalystwroteamemototheInvestmentDirector.因为一个公司叫CrowBrandmanufacturest-shirts,jeanswhichhasbecomeahottrendinyouthapparel.Rightnow,thiscompanysellsmostoftheirproductsthroughvariousoutlets.Moreoveritsmanagementteamhasveryaggressiveplantoopen125storesinshoppingmalls.ThefinancialanalyststronglyrecommendhisclientsbuyCrowBrand'sstock.ItsCEO,whoisapreviousrockstar,willalsomakethiscompanya>>>参考思variousoutlets去销售它们的产品，而如果它们open125storesshoppingmalls就不一因为消费者不会关心她曾经是不是rockstar>>>本月原V1Restwayhotelhotel对于complimentaryservicewifi每个客户都收费，这很不合理，因为有的客户根本没有这个需求。并且提到一家moreluxurioushotelAmbassodorInn采用了chargeseparatelypolicy,complimentaryservicefee很贵，这样的政策使它的客人很多（这个具体忘了），所以结论是followpolicyprofitV2:一个叫...Motel的经理说：它们提供很多附带性的服务，这些服务的成本都要在所有moreluxuriousV2:一个叫...Motel的经理说：它们提供很多附带性的服务，这些服务的成本都要在所有moreluxuriousAInncharge这些服务，而且价格相对高一些，然后这个Adoesbetterbusiness.所以我们要学习Apolicytobillseperately.第二是不能说AV3:有一个motelRestawayMotelmotelcomplimentaryservices19.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedaspartofabusinessplancreatedbythemanagementoftheTake“Afteropeningthenewswimmingpoolearlylastsummer,TakeHeartsawa12percentintheuseofthecenterbymembers.Therefore,inordertoincreasethenumberofourmembersandthusourrevenues,whichdependonmembershipfees,weshouldcontinuetoaddnewrecreationalfacilitiesinsubsequentyears:forexample,amultipurposegameroom,atenniscourt,andaminiaturegolfcourse.Beingtheonlycenterintheareaofferingthisrangeofactivitieswouldgiveusacompetitiveadvantageinthehealthandrecreationmarket.”>>>参考思.>>>参考范BecauseTakeHeartFitnessCenterexperienceda12percentincreaseinmemberusageasresultofopeninganewswimmingpoollastsummer,theauthorrecommendstheadditionofnewrecreationalfacilitiesinsubsequentyearsasameansofincreasingmembershipinTakeHeart.Theauthor’srecommendationisproblematicforseveralreasons.First,andforemost,theauthorassumesthatanincreaseinmemberusageportendsaninmembership.Thisassumptionmayholdtrueinsomecases.However,itisunlikelytoholdtrueinthecaseathand,becauseitisreasonabletoexpectthatmemberswouldvisitthefitnesscentertoinspectandtryoutthenewswimmingpool.Thiswouldaccountfortheincreaseinusage.However,sincetheauthorprovidesnoevidencethatthisnewrateofusagewassustained,theabruptincreaseinusageprovideslittleevidencethattheadditionoffacilitiessuchasthepoolwillattractnewSecond,theauthorassumesthattheadditionoftheswimmingpoolwasresponsibleforincreaseinmemberusage.However,theonlyevidenceforthisclaimisinsufficienttoestablishthecausalclaiminquestion.Whiletemporalprecedenceisoneoftheconditionsrequiredtoestablishacausalrelationshipbetweentwoevents,byitselfitisnotasufficientcondition.Consequently,itispossiblethattheadditionofthepoolwasunrelatedtotheincreaseinusageinthemannerrequiredbytheauthor’sFinally,theauthorhasprovidednoevidencetosupportthecontentionthatTakeHeartwillbeonlycenterintheareatoofferawiderangeofactivitiestoitsmembersandthushaveacompetitiveadvantageinthefitnessmarket.Inconclusion,theauthor’sbeliefthataddingadditionalrecreationalfacilitieswillincreaseHeart’smembershipisill-founded.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatmemberusageisreliableindicatorofnewmembership.Additionally,itwouldnecessarytoshowthatthecauseoftheincreaseinusagewastheopeningofthenew 商19.收购一个>>>本月原 商19.收购一个>>>本月原 20.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedaspartofthebusinessplanoftheCapitalIdeainvestment"AcrosstownintheParkHilldistrict,theThespianTheater,PizzazzPizza,andtheNiblickGolfhaveallhadbusinessincreasesoverthepasttwoyears.CapitalIdeashouldthereforeinvestintheRoxyPlayhouse,theSlice-o'-Pizza,andtheDivotGolfClub,threenewbusinessesintheIrongatedistrict.Asacondition,weshouldrequirethemtoparticipateinaspecialprogram:Anycustomerwhopatronizestwoofthebusinesseswillreceiveasubstantialdiscountatthethird.Bymotivatingcustomerstopatronizeallthree,wewillthuscontributetotheprofitabilityofeachandmaximizeour>>>参考思...>>>参考范TheargumentstatesthatifbymotivatingcustomerstopatronizeallthreeBusinessesofCapitalInvestment,theprofitabilityofeachbusinesswillincreaseandmaximizereturnforCapitalinvestment.ToachievethisthefirmproposestoinitiateaprogramwhereifacustomerpatronizestwooftheBusinesses,hewillreceivesubstantialdiscountonthethird.HoweverthereareseveralassumptionsthattheargumentisbasedonforwhichitdoesnotgivesufficientFirstly,Theargumentassumesthatpeoplewillnototherwisegotoallthethreeplacesiftheygotothetwoplaces.Thereisnoevidencetosupportthisassumption.Forexample,certaindemographicgroupsmayenjoywatchingtheatre,playinggolfandmayliketoeatoutaswellfrequently.Theymaynotselecttwooutofthethree.SobygivingthemheavydiscountonsomethingthattheywouldhaveanywayschosenmayactuallynegativelyimpacttheSecondly,theargumentgivestheexampleofthesuccessofthethreebusinessesintheParkHalldistrict.Howeveritdoesnotclearlystatethereasonsbehindthesuccessofthebusinessesthere.ItappearsthatCapitalIdeaselectedthesebusinessestoinvestspecificallyfortheuniquecombinationwhichtheyfoundtobesuccessfulinParkHilldistrict.Ifthisisthecasethenthethreebusinessesarecomplementarytooneanotherandhencetheywillsucceedasagroup.SothereseemsnoreasontoexplicitlyaskcustomerpatronizethethreeatthecostofaInconclusiontheargumentisflawedfortheabovementionedreasons.Itcanbestrengthenedifmoreevidenceisgiventosubstantiatewhytheproposedprogramwouldwork.Withoutthesetheargumentremainsunconvincingandopento21.>>>考古原Thefollowing21.>>>考古原ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheownerofCarlo'sClothingtothe"SinceDiscDepot,themusicstoreonthenextblock,begananewradioadvertisingcampaignyear,itsbusinesshasgrowndramatically,asevidencedbythelargeincreaseinfoottrafficintothestore.WhiletheDiscDepot'sownershaveapparentlybecomewealthyenoughtoretire,profitsatCarlo'sClothinghaveremainedstagnantforthepastthreeyears.Inordertoboostoursalesandprofits,weshouldthereforeswitchfromnewspaperadvertisingtofrequentradioadvertisementslikethoseforDisc>>>参考思1.错误类比：DDmusicstore与C的服饰店无可比性，不能说广告就适用C3.因果关系：没有说电台广告与业务量增长有必然因果关系。OtherfactorsotherthanradioadvertisementthatmaycontributetothebusinessgrowthofDiscdepotshouldbeconsideredandruledout.比如促销，请了明星做活动等等。.22.Olympic古ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreportsenttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,aprocessoroffrozenfoods.“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasorganizationslearnhowtothingsbetter,theybecomemoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayserviceinthingsbetter,theybecomemoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservicein1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswillsooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableustominimizecostsandthusmaximizeprofits.”错误类比：Thefoodindustryisnotanalogoustothecolorfilmindustry.食品行业因果关系——忽略他因：Otherfactorsthatmaycontributetothecostdeclineoftheprintingcostshouldbeconsideredandruledout.彩色胶片例子中的成本降低不无根据假设：Theconclusionoftheargumentisbasedonagratuitousassumptionthatthecompanycanminimizecostandmaximizeprofitbecausethecompanyhasbeenconductedfor25years.因为(1)不是有经验就可以节约成本(2)不是cost下降profit就会增加，只有在销量不减少或者增加的情况下才成立>>>参考Citingfactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustrythatindicateadownwardtrendinthecostsoffilmprocessingovera24-yearperiod,theauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswilllikewisebeabletominimizecostsandthusmaximizeprofitsinthefuture.Insupportofthisconclusiontheauthorcitesthegeneralprinciplethat“ascoupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25yearsofexperienceinthefoodprocessingindustryleadstotheauthor’srosyprediction.Thisargumentisunconvincingbecauseitsuffersfromtwocriticalflaws.First,theauthor’sforecastofminimalcostsandmaximumprofitsrestsonthegratuitousThereis,however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase.Nordoestheauthorciteanyevidencetosupportthisassumption.Justaslikely,OlympicFoodshaslearnednothingfromits25yearsinthefood-processingbusiness.Lackingthisassumption,theexpectationofincreasedefficiencyisentirelyunfounded.Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustryareapplicabletothefoodprocessingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingtheanalogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtuallyabsentinthefilm-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountableobstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.Asitstandstheauthor’sargumentisnotcompelling.TostrengthentheconclusionOlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsandmaximumOlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsandmaximumprofitsinthefuture,theauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatthecompanyhaslearnedhowtodothingsbetterasaresultofits25yearsofexperience.Supportingexamplesdrawnfromindustriesmoresimilartothefood-processingindustrywouldfurthersubstantiatetheauthor’s23.MarketCo.提高顾客>>>本月原V1MarketCo是个largesupermarketchainAresearchshowsthatlocalpeopleshopinlocalownedstores.它的marketingdirector觉得这是因为有customerloyalties，所以suggesttoshiftthenationalbudgetfundingforadvertisingtolocalcommunityprojectssuchasbuildingchildrensoccerfieldsetc.这些方式可以increasemarketsharesandthusincrease>>>考V1题目说为了提高本地居民对MarketColoyaltyMarketCo.高自己的知名庙(oftenseen),这样可以persuade居民去他那买东西,课外活劢,足球比赛艺术展览神马的。我就是主要吏槽他oftenseen丌一定能提高啊,loyalty和sales相关又丌是oftenseen就可以,V2MarketCoresearch,localconsumerwilldeveloployaltytothatcausethemtokeepshopping.所以这个公司的负责人建议MartketComovesometheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingoflocalcommunity.(V1BYmining公司因为前景丌好,有然后调查显示是因为loyalty问题。然后M就要资劣社区活劢,来提高mining公司因为前景丌好,有然后调查显示是因为loyalty问题。然后M就要资劣社区活劢,来提高loyalty,以提高在这个城市中的V3by(蔲拉表示跟JJ丌太一样啊0,0哪有soccer,难道是狗主把这个题和16题搞混了是搞基建)localpeopleMarketCo买东西,increasethelocalmarketDevelopcustomerloyalty.大致是这样的>>>参考思1.Thestatisticallyreliabilityofsurvey/research(whoconducted,whoorhowthesurveywere2.错误因果:调整宣传的预算搞基建就能让localpeople在MarketCo买东西?忠诚庙是一个漫长的过程,这样直接assume太天真了啦3.无关假设movesomeoftheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingofincreasethelocalmarketshare,更丌能说就能develop24.校医院私立医院对>>>考古Thefollowingappeared24.校医院私立医院对>>>考古Thefollowingappearedinanarticleinthehealthsectionofa“Thereisacommonmisconceptionthatuniversityhospitalsare