Savills大湾区写字楼指数（英）

自SPOTLIGHTSavillsResearchChinaOffice-March2024TheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndexsavsavlls第一太戴维斯.2/research2/researchTheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndexINTRODUCTION&GLOSSARYBackgroundSavills’sGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndex(GBAGradeAOfficeIndex)aimstoprovidemarketplayers,investors,developers,landlordsandofficeoccupierswithareliablebenchmarkfortheGBAofficemarkets.Sampling,TimingandDelimitationSampling,TimingandDelimitationThereportcoversninemainlandcitiesandHongKongwithintheGBA,selectingdifferentbaseyearsaccordingtoeachcity’smarketdevelopmentrecord.HongKong,ShenzhenandGuangzhouhavethebaseyearof2009,whiletheothercitieshavethebaseyearof2013.Macauistemporarilyomittedfromthereport.RentalRentalIndexTherentalindexreflectsthechangeinrentsoverasix-monthperiodofabasketofpropertiesonalike-for-likebasis.PricePriceIndexThepriceindexreflectsthechangeinpriceoverasix-monthperiodofabasketofpropertiesonalike-for-likebasis.TotalOccupancyTotalOccupancyCostThetotaloccupancycostincludestheneteffectiverent,propertymanagementfeesandrelatedtaxes.FrequencyofUpdateTheTheGBAGradeAOfficeIndexwasfirstpublishedinOctober2019andisupdatedonanannual/research3cn/research3TheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndexKEYFINDINGSGiventhecollectiveimpactsoftheeconomicclimates,andthesupplyanddemanddynamics,theGBAGradeAofficeleasingandsalesmarketsremainedinfavourofoccupiersandbuyers,withrentalandpriceindexesdecreasingby5.3%and5.2%YoYbyend-2023,respectively.Asurgeinnewsupplyintensifiedthealreadyfierceleasingcompetitionaswellasthedisequilibriumofsupplyanddemandonthemarket,makingtheoverallleasingmarketlacklustrein2023.Mostofficeoccupiersheldtheircost-savingplanstightinleaseevaluationsandsubsequently,relocationand/ordownsizingactivities.Althoughtheregionalannualnettake-upincreasedduemainlytotheincreasedfinancialincentivesandflexibilityofcontracttermsofferedbymostoflandlords,thetotalwas54.3%lowerthantheaverageoverthepreviousfiveyears.TheGBAaveragevacancyratecontinuedtorise,increasingby3.2pptsYoYto27.2%byend-2023.AlloftheGBAcities'officepropertyinvestmentmarketswerechallengingtoo,withGuangzhou,Shenzhen,andHongKongservingastheprimarytargetcitiesfrommanyend-users’perspectives.Institutionalinvestmentactivityremainedlowandmarketconfidencewassubjecttobeimproved.Meanwhile,thenumberofsellableprojectsincreasedbutpricegapsbetweensellersandbuyersremaineddifficulttoreducedespitetheyieldexpansionthatwastechnicallyresultedfromalargercutofpricesinsteadofrentsinmostcities.In2023,priceindexesofallGBAcitiesmaintainedtheirdownwardtendency.TheeconomicsoftheGBAcitiesareexpectedtogrowinarangefrom5%to7%YoYfor2024,buttheofficeleasingandinvestmentmarketsbycityshouldcontinuetofacewithchallengesduemainlytoanotherroundofsizablenewsupplypipelineinmostcities,andrentalandpricemovementsareexpectedtohoveratthebottominthenextsixto12/research3RMBtrillionTheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndexRMBtrillionMACROOVERVIEWGBA’seconomicrecoverycontinuedin2023,withthetotalregionalGDPincreasingby4.2%YoYtoRMB13.7trillionbytheendof2023.However,mostkeycitieswithintheGBArecoveredatarelativelyslowpace,withtheGDPgrowthsofallcitieshavingnotyetreachedthelevelof2021.Ontopofthat,mostdevelopersandlandlordsintheGBAGradeAofficemarketcontinuedtofeelthepinchofthecurrentenvironmentalchallenges,acontinuousinfluxofsizablenewsupplyandtighteningCAPEXamongmostofficeoccupiers,reflectedbytheconstantdownswinginsomekeyindicatorsincludingtherental/priceindexesandoccupancyratesduring2023. 2023GBAGDPRMB13,707.1billionYoYChange4.2%GBAGBAGDP&GDPGrowth,2019-202386404%0%-2%-4%20192020202120222023GDP(LHS)GDPGrowthYoY(RHS)Note:GDPofHongKongandMacauwereupdatedto2022.Source:NationalBureauofStatistics,BureausofStatisticsofGBACities,SavillsResearch4/researchmillionsqmTheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndexmillionsqmSUPPLY&DEMANDDuring2023,acombinedleasableGFAof2.2millionsqmwascompletedintheGBAofficepropertymarket.Theregionalofficestockwasexpandedby6.3%YoYto35.6millionsqm.Notably,nearly80%ofthenewcompletionswereconcentratedinShenzhen,GuangzhouandHongKong.Lookingatthesethreeprimarymarkets,thestockofShenzhenwas57.2%and27.3%largerthanthatofGuangzhouandHongKongasofend-2023,respectively.StockStock&VacancyRateByCity,202360%9.68.00GBAAverageVacancyRate:27.2%0.2ShenzhenHongKongGuangzhouZhuhaiDongguanFoshanHuizhouZhongshanJiangmenZhaoqing50%40%30%20%0%ExistingStock(LHS)VacancyRate(RHS)GBAAverageVacancyRate(RHS)Source:SavillsResearchInresponsetothecyclicalheadwinds,macroenvironmentuncertaintiesandbusinessoperationalchallengesamongmanycorporations,mostofficeoccupiersremainedprudentinleasingstrategiesandbroadlychosetotightentheircorporaterealestatebudgets.Asaresult,theoverallGBAleasingdemandwasrestrainedin2023.Althoughtheregionalannualnettake-upincreasedby21.7%YoYduemainlytomorefinancialincentivesandflexiblecontracttermsofferedbymostoflandlords,thenumberwas54.3%lowerthanthelastfiveyears’average,registering466,790sqmin2023.Meanwhile,theregionalaveragevacancyratecontinuedtoincreaseasithassince2019,up1.4pptsHoHand3.2pptsYoYto27.2%byend-2H/2023./research5millionsqmTheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndexmillionsqmRegionalRegionalNewSupply,NetTake-upAndVacancyRate,2019-2023440%30.420192020202120222023NewSupply(LHS)NetTake-up(LHS)VacancyRate(RHS)30%20%0%Source:SavillsResearchFinanceandprofessionalservicessectorscontinuedtobethemaindemandgeneratorsformainlandGBAcitiesin2023,withbanks,insuranceandsecuritiescompaniesandlawfirmsshowingstrongresilienceintakingupGradeAofficespace.ThiswasespeciallyevidentinGuangzhouwheretheproportionsofleasingdealsfromtheaforementionedindustriesincreasedby15.5pptsYoYto42.1%.Thesluggishstockmarket,however,dampenedbusinessprospectsoffinancialinstitutionsinHongKong,resultinginayear-longslowdownintake-upacrossalldistrictsandderailingleasingmomentumfromthefinancesector.AlthoughsomenotabledealsfromITandretail&tradesectorswereconcludedinsomemajorGBAcitiesduring2023,theoverallleasingdemandfromthesetwosectorssloweddownasmanysmallandmedium-sizedlocalcompaniessufferedfromthegrowingeconomicuncertainties.Thiscouldbeexemplifiedbya3.8-pptsYoYdecreaseintheproportionofleasingdealsfromITandretail&tradesectorsinShenzhen,whichaccountedfor43.0%ofthecitywidetotal. StrongLeasingDemand▼ProfessionalServicesFinanceProfessionalServices SoftenedLeasingDemand▼Retail&Trade6/research1H/2009=100/1H/2013=100TheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndex1H/2009=100/1H/2013=100RENTALINDEXRentalRentalIndex,1H/2014-2H/20231909070502014201520162017201820192020202120222023HongKongHuizhouGBAGuangzhouZhaoqingShenzhenFoshanZhongshanJiangmenDongguanZhuhaiSource:SavillsResearchFindingenoughnewofficeoccupiersremainedaproblematicexerciseamongbasicallyallofficepropertylandlordsacrosstheGBAcitiesandlandlordswerebroadlyforcedtotakemoreaggressiveinitiativesinadditiontothenecessaryanddirectrentalcutstoachievestableorincreasedoccupancythroughout2023.Forthoselandlordswhohadcommitmentsincapitalmarketsorotherissues,keepingarelativestablefacerentwhilstofferinglongerrent-freeperiodsbecamethemantraintheirleasecontractnegotiations.Theneteffectiverentsdecreasedasaresultofallthese.Thus,theGBAGradeAofficerentalindexfellby3.7%HoHand5.3%YoYasofend-2H/2023.Simultaneously,occupancycostsofallGBAcitiesdecreasedrangingfrom-6.6%to-1.2%YoYasofend-2023,withZhuhai(-6.6%),HongKong(-5.4%)andGuangzhou(-5.2%)beingthemostnotable. RentalIndexHoHChange3.7%YoYChange5.7%/research71H/2009=100/1H/2013=100TheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndex1H/2009=100/1H/2013=100PRICEINDEXPricePriceIndex,1H/2014-2H/2023280250220190160100702014201520162017201820192020202120222023HongKongHuizhouGBAGuangzhouZhaoqingShenzhenFoshanZhongshanJiangmenDongguanZhuhaiSource:SavillsResearchPriceindexesdeclinedinallGBAcitiestooin2023,draggingtheGBAGradeAofficepriceindexdownby2.9%HoHand5.2%YoYasofend-2H/2023,followingthedownwardtrendin2022.ThedecrementsinDongguan,Foshan,Shenzhen,HuizhouandZhuhaiweremostnotable–allover5.0%YoYin2023,primarilyresultedfromtheeconomicsettings,heightenedUSDinterestrate,softenedinvestmentconfidence,ariseinlettingrisks,andadeclineinrents. PriceIndexHoHChange2.9%YoYChange5.2%8/researchTheGreaterBayAreaGradeAOfficeIndexMARKETOUTLOOKTheGuangdongProvincialGovernmentWorkReport,releasedon23January2024,hassetaGDPgrowthtargetofatleast5.0%for2024.Boththecentralandlocalgovernmentswillcontinuetomakegreatereffortsinimprovingbusinessenvironments,facilitatingthedevelopmentofstrategicemergingindustriesandenhancingattractivenessforforeigninvestmentwithfurthermeasures,includingtheThree-YearActionPlanfortheGBAunveiledinDecember2023.TheseshouldhelpboosttheeconomicgrowthandgeneratemoregrowthmomentumfortheGBAofficepropertymarketonamacrolevel.However,theofficeleasingandinvestmentmarketsshouldcontinuetoseepersistentuncertaintiesandchallengesgeneratedfromthenewsupplyissuesinmostcities,relativelyfragiledemandandcompanies’cautiousrealestatestrategies.Thepressureonprojectlettingshouldremainsound,weightingonaforeseeableassetperformances.Rentalandpricemovementsareexpectedtohoveratthebottominthenextsixto12months.CONTACTUS谢靖宇CarlbyXieHeadofSavillsSouthernChinaResearchTEL:+862036654874E-mail:carlby.xie@黎青山SamLaiSeniorDirector,HeadofSavillsSouthernChinaCommercialTEL:+862036654830E-mail:sam.lai@罗志文AborvenLuoSeniorDirector,HeadofSavillsShenzhenCommercialTEL:+8675584367099E-mail:aborven.luo@/research9GLOBALHEADQUARTERSSavills–London33MargaretStreet,W1G0JD,LondonTel:44(0)2074998644CHINA25/F,TwoICC,No.288SouthShaanxiRoad,XuihuiDistrict,ShanghaiTel:8602163916688Savills–Shanghai25/F,TwoICC,No.288SouthShaanxiRoad,XuihuiDistrict,ShanghaiTel:862163916688Savills–Beijing1201Tower1,ChinaCentralPlace,81JianguoRoad,ChaoyangDistrict,BeijingTel:861059252288Savills–GuangzhouSuite1301,R&FCenter,No.10HuaxiaRoad,ZhujiangNewTown,TianheDistrict,GuangzhouTel:862036654800Unit01-03,9/F,ChinaResourcesTower,No.2666KeyuanSouthRoad,NanshanDistrict,ShenzhenTel:8675584367000Room4609,Tower1,InternationalFinanceSquare,NO.1,Section3,HongxingRoad,JinjiangDistrict,ChengduTel:862867373737Savills–NanjingZhujiangRoad,XuanwuDistrict,NanjingTel:862557720903Savills–HangzhouUnit15A08,RafflesCityHangzhouTower2,No.228XinyeRoad,JiangganDistrict,HangzhouTel:8657181020222Savills–WuhanUnit08-10,27/F,CITICPACIFICMansion,No.1627ZhongshanAvenue,Jiang'anDistrict,WuhanTel:862759305566Savills–ChangshaUnit16,26thFloor,T1IFS,No.188JiefangWestRoad,FurongDistrict,ChangshaTel:8673189870177Savills–TianjinUnit05-07,46thFloor,TianjinWorldFinancialCenterOfficeTower,No.2DaguNorthRoad,HepingDistrict,TianjinTel:862258308877Unit911S,XiwangTower,136ZhongshanRoad,ZhongshanDistrict,DalianTel:8641139668988Savills–ShenyangUnit2706CRBuilding,No.286QingnianStreet,HepingDistrict,Sh