加拿大电动汽车与电力需求-FAILURE TO CHARGE A Critical Look at Canadas EV Policy -Electric Vehicles and the 2024

2024

FAILURETOCHARGE

ACriticalLookatCanada’sEVPolicy

ElectricVehiclesandthe

DemandforElectricity

G.CornelisvanKooten

ELECTRICVEHICLESANDTHEDEMANDFOR

ELECTRICITY

G.CornelisvanKooten

ExecutiveSummary

Asacomponentofclimatemitigationpolicies,manygovernmentshaveimplementedmeasurestoelectrifythetransportationsector.Thishasbeendonebysettingtargetdatesforwhenthesalesofvehicleswithinternalcombustionengines(ICEs)willendandpro-vidingsubsidiesforthepurchaseofpassengerelectricvehicles(EVs),productionfacilities,andchargingstations.InCanada,currentfederalpolicymandatesallnewpassengervehiclestobenet-zeroemissionsby2035,ultimatelyaimingforafullyelectricnewfleet.

Despiteongoingfederalinitiatives,EVsconstitutearisingbutrela-tivelysmallshareofthevehiclemarket,growingfromlessthan1%ofsalesin2017to9.1%inthelastquarterof2022.Notably,BritishColumbiaandQuebecboasthigherproportions—18%and14%ofvehiclessoldinthelastquarterof2022wereelectric,respectively.

ThisstudydelvesintothepotentialimplicationsoftheincreasingadoptionofEVsonbothCanada’sandvariousprovinces’electric-itygrids.Ouranalysisprovidesestimatesoftheadditionalgenerat-ingcapacityrequiredtomeettheescalatingdemandfromEVs.Wedonotlookintothenecessityforadditionaltransmissionlinesforrenewablepowersourcesorupgradestolocaldeliverylines.

Intheanalysis,weemployaMonteCarlosimulationusingdataonbatteryefficiency,batterycapacityandrangefor299EVmodels,andaverageannualdrivingdistancesbyjurisdiction,toestimatetheexpectedelectricitydemand(andvarianceofdemand)foranindividualEVwithinthatjurisdiction.Wethenprovideforecastsof

2G.CornelisvanKooten

thefuturepurchasesofpassengerEVstoobtainestimatesofthepotentialfuturedemandforelectricitybythissectoroftheeconomy.

“EVscouldposeasignificantburdenonCanadianelectric-itygrids,withsystemdemandincreasingbyaslittleas7.5%toasmuchas15.3%,althoughtheburdenvariesacrosstheprovinces.”

OurresultsindicatethatEVscouldposeasignificantburdenonCana-dianelectricitygrids,withsystemdemand(alsoknownasload)increasingbyaslittleas7.5%toasmuchas15.3%,althoughthebur-denvariesacrosstheprovincesfromaslittleas4.6%(Quebec)toasmuchas26.2%(Ontario).Over-all,Canadacouldseeanincreaseinannualloadrangingfrom46.8terawatthours(TWh)to95.1TWh,

withBC’sloadpotentiallyincreasingby4.4-9.3TWh,Ontario’sby19.0-38.2

TWh.andQuebec’sby10-21.7TWh.

Whatdoesthisimplyfornewgeneratingcapacities?Weprojectthatasmanyas13newgasplantsof500-MWcapacitymightberequiredinCanada:oneinBritishColumbia,fiveinOntario,andthreeinQuebec.Alternatively,itwouldbenecessarytodevelop10newhydroelectricfacilitiesequalinsizetoBC’sSite-C(about1,000MWcapacity):oneinBC,fourinOntario,andtwoinQuebec.

IfEVdemandforpoweristocomefromnon-hydrorenewablesources,windisthemostlikelyoption.Assumingacapacityof3.5MWperturbineandaveragewindcapacityfactorof25%,itwouldbenecessarytobuildnearly5,000largeturbinesinCanada,with560inBC,1860inOntarioand1200inQuebec.Giventheunreliabilityofwindenergy,itwouldalsobenecessarytobuildpeak-gasplants,hydropowerand/orutility-scalebatterystoragecapacityasbackup.Importantly,becausebackupcapacitycannotpayforitselfasitdoesnotdeliverenoughpowerduringtheyear,itwouldneedtobesubsidized,therebyaddingtosystemcosts.

Unlesssocietybeginsalmostimmediatelytodeveloptherequiredgener-atinginfrastructure,itwillnotbepossibletomeettheexpecteddemand

ElectricVehiclesandtheDemandforElectricity3

thatEVsmightposeforelectricitygridsinCanada.Thatis,ifgovernmentscontinuetopushforanall-electricvehiclefleetbycontinuingtosubsi-dizeEVpurchasesdirectly,andthroughpoliciesthatraisegasolinepricesandrequiringallvehiclessoldbeyond2030or2035tobeelectric,itwouldbenecessarytostartconstructionofpowerplantstomeettheanticipatedincreaseindemand.

INTRODUCTION

Promotionofelectricvehicleshasbecomeamajorpolicytoolinmanycountries’effortstoreduceandperhapseveneliminatefossilfueluse,atleastwhenitcomestovehiculartransportation.Theideaisthat,byreplacinginternalcombustionengines(ICEs)asthemainsourceoflocomotion,electricvehicles(EVs)wouldtakeadvantageofelectric-itygeneratedsolelyfromrenewablesourcesofenergy,primarilyandsometimesexclusivelyfromwindandsolarsources.Therearemanyproblemsinmovingtowardatransportationsystemthatreliessolelyonbatteryelectricvehicles,evenifonlypassengercars,sportutilityvehi-cles(SUVs),andlight-dutytrucksoperate

onbatteriesrechargedfromtheelectric-itygrid.Short-termproblemsrelatetotheavailabilityofchargingsites.Inthelon-gerterm,inadequateelectric-generatingcapacity,bothrenewableandthermal,andtransmissioninfrastructurecanhamperthetransitionawayfromICEs.

InCanada,thefederalgovernmentisplan-

ningtomassivelyincreasetheuseofEVsinthecomingyears.Currentfederalpolicyisthatallnewpassengervehiclesmusthavenet-zeroemissionsby2035,eventuallyrequiring100%ofthefleettobeelectric.Thisstudyexaminestheimpactofadoptingelectricvehicles—batteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)—onelectricitydemand.WeinvestigatehowmuchmoreelectricityvariousCanadianpowergridswouldneedtogeneratetoaccommodateEVs.Forexample,weprovideillustrationsofwhatitmeanstogeneratethisnewelectricitysupply:Howmanypowerplants(say,equalincapacitytoBC’sSiteCProject)wouldberequiredtogeneratethisnewelectricity,orhowmuchnuclearcapacitywouldbeneededinOntario(viz.,Ontario’sBrucePowerplant)tomeetEV

ElectricVehiclesandtheDemandforElectricity5

demand?WealsoexaminewheretheelectricityneededtomeetthedemandfromEVsislikelytocomefrom.

Webeginourinvestigationbylookingatdataonvehiclesalesandregistra-tionsinCanadatogetsomenotionofthepenetrationofelectricvehiclesinthevehiclefleet.WedefinetheelectricvehiclesasthosegenerallyconsistingofBEVsandPHEVs,distinguishingthemfromICEsandhybridvehiclesthatre-chargetheirbatteriesviaafossil-fueldrivenICE.

DataonsalesofelectricvehiclesinCanada

DataontheregistrationofallfuelandvehicletypesinCanada,includingEVs,areavailablefromStatisticsCanadafromthe1stquarterof2017throughthe4thquarterof2022(StatisticsCanada,2023a).DataonthesaleofelectricvehiclesareavailableformanycitiesandregionsthroughoutCanadafortheperiod2017-2022(dataarelackingforAlberta,NovaScotia,andNewfound-landandLabrador)(StatisticsCanada,2023b).Dataonthesaleofpassengervehicles,trucksandtotalvehicles,aswellastheirorigin(e.g.,domesticver-susforeignmanufacture)havebeencollectedmonthlysinceJanuary1946throughtothefirstfewmonthsof2023;however,nodistinctionismadebythetypeoffuelthevehiclesrequire(StatisticsCanada,2024a).

TodeterminetheimpactofpoliciesfavouringEVsoverothervehicles,infigure1weplotquarterlyEVregistrationsandtotalvehiclesales,andtheproportionoftheformertothelatter.EVregistrationsconstituteasmallbutrisingproportionofallvehiclessales,risingfromlessthan1%ofsalesin2017to9.1%inthelastquarterof2022.

Infigures2and3,weprovideinformationconcerningtherateatwhichelectricvehicleshavebeenadopted.ThenumberofbatteryEVsorPHEVsregisteredasaproportionoftotalvehiclesalesovertheperiodfromQ12017toQ42022areprovidedforBritishColumbia,Ontario,Quebec,andCanadaasawholeinfigure2.ThedataonEVregistrationandtotalvehiclesalesforthelastquarterof2022areshowninfigure3.NoticethatBritishColumbialeadstherestofCanadainpurchasesofvehiclesthatdrawpowerfromtheelectricitygrid;itisfollowedbyQuebec,andthenOntario.Morethan18%ofvehiclessoldinBCwereEVs,comparedwithabout14%inQuebec,10%inCanada(excludingtheaboveprovinces),and8%inOntario.Themostobvious

‘#OFVEHICLES

PERCENT

10.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%

4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%

20

16

12

8

4

0

6G.CornelisvanKooten

Figure1:ElectricandtotalvehiclesalesinCanada,byquarter,Q12017throughQ42022

750,000

600,000

450,000

300,000

150,000

0

EVRegistrationTotalSalesPercent

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201720182019202020212022

Source:StatisticsCanada,(2023a);(2024a);graphcompiledbytheauthor.

Figure2:Percentageofnewvehicleregistrationthatisbatteryelectricvehiclesorplug-inhybrids,byselectedprovincesandCanada,2017-2022.

CanadaBCOntarioQuebec

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201720182019202020212022

Source:StatisticsCanada,(2023a);(2024a);graphcompiledbytheauthor.

explanationsforthegreaterpenetrationofEVsinBCareitslowerpricesofelectricity,itsgenerallyhighergasolineprices,anditsmildertemperatures,comparedwithotherjurisdictionsinCanada,althoughthesefactorsmightnotbestatisticallysignificantdeterminantsofpurchases.

Formoredetailedinformationonthedistributionofvehicleregistrationsbyfueltypeforthefourjurisdictions,seefigure4.Thedatainthefigure

ElectricVehiclesandtheDemandforElectricity7

Figure3:ProportionoftotalvehiclesalesaccountedforbyEVS,2021-2022

CanadaNewfoundland&Labrador

PrinceEdwardIsland NovaScotiaNewBrunswickQuebec

Ontario ManitobaSaskatchewanAlberta

BritishColumbia

0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.0

Percent

Note:NodataonelectricvehiclesareavailableforAlberta,NovaScotia,andNewfoundlandandLabrador.

Source:StatisticsCanada,(2023a);(2024a);graphcompiledbytheauthor.

comparequarterlyregistrationsofgasolineICEs,BEVs,PHEVsandtotalfueltypeswiththebaseline,2017registrations(2017=100).Whiletotalregistra-tionofvehiclesandregistrationsofgasolineICEsfellsomewhatbetween2017and2022(gasoline-poweredICEsfelltoagreaterextent),EVregistra-tionrosesignificantlyinalljurisdictions.WhilePHEVregistrationdoubledoverall(thatinBCquadrupled),registrationofBEVsrosebyalmost12-fold(nearly14-foldinBC).However,comparedwithICEvehicles,EVsarequiteasmallproportionofallvehiclesontheroadatanygiventime(seefigure1).

Governmentpoliciestoelectrifytransportationconsistoflegislationthatfocusonzero-emissiontargets,requirementstoterminatethesaleofICEsafteraspecifieddate(2035,say),alongwithretailsubsidies.ThepoliciesessentiallyforceautomobilemanufacturerstobuildandsellmoreEVs,eveniftheircostsaresubsidizedbyhigherpricesforSUVsandsmalltrucks.(Insomecountries,e.g.,theUS,thesepoliciesarereinforcedbydraconiantailpipeemissionregulationsthatcannotbemetbycurrentICEs.)Thepoli-ciesareeffectiveinslowlyelectrifyingthecountry’sfleetofpassengercars,multi-purposevehicles(mainlySUVs),vansandsmalltrucks.Thetrendcanbeseeninfigure5,whichshowscumulativesalesofEVsandcumulativetotalvehiclesalesfrom2017through2022.Thegraphissimilartofigure1,exceptforthefactthat,whilequarterlyregistrationsofEVstototalvehiclesalesincreasedfromlessthan1%to9%between2017and2022,theincreaseinEVsasaproportionoftotalvehiclesontheroadincreasedfromunder

‘#OFVEHICLES

PERCENT

8G.CornelisvanKooten

1%toonly3.5%—onlyoneoutof28vehiclesontheroadisanelectricvehicle(notincludingthoseregisteredpriorto2017,whichareprimarilyICEvehicles).

Inconclusion,theuptakeofelectricvehiclesoverthepastsixyearshasbeenslow,althoughsteadilyincreasing.Whetherthiswillcontinuedependsongovernmentpoliciesandthepublic’sdesireandabilitytoadoptthisnewtechnology.Thereareseveralspecificconcernsabout

Figure4:Growthinnewvehicleregistration,selectedprovincesandCanada,2017-2022(2017=100)

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Canada

BEV

Plug-inhybrid

AllfueltypesGasoline

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201720182019202020212022

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

BritishColumbiaandTerritories

BEV

Plug-inhybrid

AllfueltypesGasoline

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201720182019202020212022

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Ontario

BEV

Plug-inhybrid

AllfueltypesGasoline

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201720182019202020212022

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Quebec

BEV

Plug-inhybrid

AllfueltypesGasoline

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201720182019202020212022

Source:StatisticsCanada,(2023a);(2024a);graphscompiledbytheauthor.

Figure5:CumulativesaleofelectricvehiclesandallvehiclesinCanada,2017-2022

12,000,000

10,800,000

9,600,000

8,400,000

7,200,000

6,000,000

4,800,000

3,600,000

2,400,000

1,200,000

0

EVRegistrationTotalSalesPercent

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201720182019202020212022

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0

Source:StatisticsCanada,(2023a);(2024a);graphcompiledbytheauthor.

ElectricVehiclesandtheDemandforElectricity9

EVs:becausetheyweighsome30%morethantheirequivalentICEs,theirtireswearoutfaster,whichisaccompaniedbymoreparticulatematterenter-ingtheatmosphere;EVsappearnottoholdtheirvaluetothesameextentasICEs(Haynes,2023);EVstakesome2.5to11.0hourstorechargeatthebetterchargingoutlets,andmuchlongeratotheroutlets;1EVs(andbackupbatteries)canburstintochemical-fuelledfiresthatburnhotterandaremoredifficulttoextinguishthanICEfiresandcouldpotentiallydamageconcretestructures(Driessen,2023;TeslaFire2023);andthereareenvironmentalissuesrelatedtotheminingofthemetalsrequiredtoproduceEVbatter-iesanddisposeofthem(InternationalEnergyAgency,2021;WorldNuclearAssociation,2021;Kara,2022).Further,unlikeICEs,wheretheWesthasatechnologicaladvantage,ChinahasanadvantageinproducingEVsandisfastreplacinglegacymanufacturers,suchasFord,GM,ToyotaandVolkswa-gen,asthemainproducersofEVs,resultinginthehollowingoutoffactoriesandjobsinNorthAmericaandEurope(Xie,2023).

EVemissionsrealitiesstartwithphysics.Tomatchtheenergystoredinonekg.ofoilrequires15kg.oflithiumbattery,whichentailsdiggingupsome15,000kg.ofrockanddirttoaccessmuchneededminerals,suchaslithium(15kg.oflithiumperbattery),graphite,copper,nickel,aluminum,zinc,neo-dymium,andmanganese.Theglobalminingandmineralssectorusessome40%ofallindustrialenergy,whichisdominatedbyoil,coal,andnaturalgas.Further,itisunlikelythattheincreasedglobaldemandforelectricitycanandwillbemetfromrenewablewindandsolarsources.(vanKooten,etal.,2020;Duan,etal.,2023;Mills,2023).Giventheemissionsassociatedwiththeminingofinputsusedinbatteriesandpowergenerationequipment,andtheextenttowhichpowergenerationisnotrenewable,theclimatechangebenefitsofreplacingthefleetofICEswithEVsmaybemuchlowerthananticipated(Leyland,2023;Finley,2023;Ridley,2023).

Resolutionofsomeoftheseissuescouldwellputadamperonthefuturedevelopmentofelectricvehicles.Inthisstudy,however,thefocusisonCan-adaandtheimplicationsthatEVswillhaveforpowergeneration,particularlyasitaffectstheneedforadditionalgeneratingcapacity.

1Teslacharginginformation,withthemaximumratedependingontheTeslamodelbeing

considered,availableat<

/ca/en/resources/blog/577-how-long

-

does-it-take-to-charge-a-tesla#:~:text=

>[accessed18October2022].

ELECTRICITYGRIDANDELECTRICVEHICLES:SELECTED

JURISDICTIONS

Asthenumberofelectricvehiclesincreases,thedemandforelectricitytorechargetheirbatterieswillincreaseaccordingly.Todate,thereislit-tleevidencetoindicatethatthepowerrequiredbyBEVsandPHEVsisaproblemfortheelectricitygrid—thecurrentprovincialgridsappeartohavesufficientcapacitytohandletherechargingrequirementsofEVs.Thisobservationiscorroboratedbyfederaldata,whichindicatethat,priorto2021,theelectricityuserequiredamountstoabout0.4%ofthesecondmostimportantenergyuse,thatforpassengertransportation(NaturalResourceCanada,1991).

AsofJuly2023thereweresome344differentmodelsofelectricvehi-clesthatconsumerscouldpotentiallypurchase,althoughthedatabaseweemployinthefollowingdiscussionconsistsof299EVmodels(foralistofthemodelsseeElectricVehicleDatabase,n.d.).2Dataareavail-ableregardingthebatterycapacity,theassociatedenergyefficiencyandrange,andtowingweight.Thedataaresummarizedintable1.Thedistributionsofmodelswitheachofthesecharacteristicsareshowninfigure6.

Muchoftheinformationintable1andfigure6isprovidedbytheelectricvehiclemanufacturers,oftenbasedontestsperformedunderperfectconditionsorfromtheoreticalmodels.3Inpractice,batteriesmaynotperformtothesamelevelsindicatedbythemanufacturer;batteriesshouldnot,forexample,berechargedintemperaturesbelow

2OurdataarebasedoninformationaccessedonMarch16,2023<

>;sincethen,45newmodelshavebeenadded,althoughthemajorityarenotavailableforpur-chaseuntillaterin2023orin2024.

3TheauthorsoftheElectricVehicleDatabasepointoutthat:“TheEVDatabaseaimstogatherasmuchreal-worlddataaspossible.Alotofinformationinthecarindustryisoftennotapplicableinpractice,astheseareoftenbasedontheoreticaldatagatheredinlaboratories.Toavoidmisunderstandings,theEVDatabaseshowstheofficialdatainadditiontothereal-worlddata”(n.d.).Wecouldnotfindevidenceindicatingthatthetheoreticalandreal-worlddatawereseparated.Thewebsitealsoprovidesadisclaimerconcerningtheuseofthedata.

Numberofmodels

[95,125]

[125,154]

[154,184]

[184,213]

[213,243]

[243,272]

[272,302]

[302,331]

[331,361]

[361,390]

[390,420]

[420,449]

[449,479]

[479,508]

[508,538]

[538,567]

[567,597]

[597,626]

[626,656]

[656,685]

Numberofmodels

[16.7,22.0]

[22.0,27.3]

(27.3,32.6]

[32.6,38.0]

[38.0,43.3]

[43.3,48.6]

[48.6,53.9]

[53.9,59.2]

[59.2,64.5]

[64.5,69.9]

[69.9,75.2]

[75.2,80.5]

[80.5,85.8]

[85.8,91.1]

[91.1,96.4]

[96.4,101.7]

(101.7,107.1]

[107.1,112.4]

[112.4,117.7]

[117.7,123.0]

Numberofmodels

[150,157]

[157,165]

[165,172]

[172,179]

[179,186]

[186,194]

[194,201]

[201,208]

[208,215]

[215,223]

[223,230]

[230,237]

[237,244]

[244,252]

[252,259]

[259,266]

[266,273]

[273,281]

[281,288]

[288,295]

NumberofModels

[300.0,410.0]

[410.0,520.0]

[520.0,630.0]

[630.0,740.0]

[740.0,850.0]

[850.0,960.0]

[960.0,1070.0]

[1070.0,1180.0]

[1180.0,1290.0]

[1290.0,1400.0]

[1400.0,1510.0]

[1510.0,1620.0]

[1620.0,1730.0]

[1730.0,1840.0]

[1840.0,1950.0]

[1950.0,2060.0]

[2060.0,2170.0]

[2170.0,2280.0]

[2280.0,2390.0]

[2390.0,2500.0]

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

ElectricVehiclesandtheDemandforElectricity11

Figure6:Distributionoffourcharacteristicsofelectricvehiclemodels:

Batterycapacity,batteryefficiency,vehiclerange,andvehicletowingweightforselectedmodelsofelectricvehicles(n=299,exceptn=188forvehicleweight)

VehicleRange:kilometers(km)

BatteryCapacity:kilowatthours(kWh)

EnergyEfficiency:Watthoursperkilometer(Wh/km)

VehicleTowingWeight:kilogram(kg)

Source:ElectricVehicleDatabase,accessedMarch16,2023

12G.CornelisvanKooten

freezing,asbatteryperformancefallsquicklywhentemperaturesarebelow–30oCanddeclinessomewhatasthebatteriesage.Thereisnotenoughinformationavailabletoassesshowperformanceisaffectedovertimeandundervariousweatherconditions.

WeanalyzethepotentialdemandthatEVsposeonelectricitygridsinCanadainthissectionandprovidebackgroundinformationanddataonelectricitysupplyandelectricvehiclesinCanadaanditsprovincesarepresentedintable2.

Table1:Summarystatisticsofavailableelectricvehiclemodels:batterycapacityandenergy,andvehiclerangeandweight

Statistic

Capacity(kWh)

Energy(Wh/km)

Range(km)

Weight(kg)

Mean

70.2

199.3

357.5

1,226.5

Maximum

123.0

295.0

685.0

2,500.0

Minimum

16.7

150.0

95.0

300.0

Median

71.0

192.0

365.0

1,000.0

Observations

299

299

299

188

Source:ElectricVehicleDatabase(n.d.).

Table2:Electricityavailabilityandelectricvehiclerequirements,2022

Vehicles

Electric

(zero-emissions)

Totalenergy

usebyEVsin

jurisdiction

(MWh)d

Average

distancedriven

(km/year)b

%ofelectricityuseinjurisdiction

Electricitysupply(MWh)a

AverageenergyperEV(kWh)c

Jurisdiction

Total

Canada

578,273,577

15,200

21,351,392

510,135

3,030

1,545,468

0.27%

Newfoundland

&Labrador

8,514,552

18,100

NA

NA

3,608

NA

NA

PEI

1,564,861

15,300

88,490

961

3,049

2,931

0.19%

NovaScotia

10,417,930

16,600

NA

NA

3,309

NA

NA

NewBrunswick

13,388,427

16,600

480,257

3,533

3,309

11,689

0.09%

Quebec

210,693,634

14,300

5,197,139

200,406

2,850

571,187

0.27%

Ontario

135,308,943

16,000

8,138,249

149,376

3,189

476,357

0.35%

Manitoba

25,411,885

14,800

613,566

4,550

2,950

13,422

0.05%

Saskatchewan

24,975,059

15,800

631,662

2,975

3,149

9,369

0.04%

Alberta

79,531,379

15,200

NA

NA

3,030

NA

NA

BritishColumbia

67,053,704

13,100

2,435,505

120,351

2,611

314,233

0.47%

aSource:StatisticsCanada(2023c)

bSource:NaturalResourcesCanada(2010);],StatisticsCanada(2022a)

cSource:StatisticsCanada(2024a).NA=notavailable.

dSource:Author’scalculations.NA=notavailable

ElectricVehiclesandtheDemandforElectricity13

TodeterminethestrainthatelectricvehiclesmightimposeonelectricitygridsinCanadaandtheimpactofpoliciesrequiringthetransitiontoEVs,weexaminetheinstalledcapacityandgenerationbyvariousenergysourcesinCanadaandthreemajorprovinces—BritishColumbia,Ontario,andQuebec.Thelatestcapacitydataareavailableforthethreeprovincesfor2022,but2020isthelatestyeardataareavailableforcapacitydatainCanada.Wealsobreakdownelectricitygenerationbysourcein2022forthethreeprov-inces,aswellas2020generationbysourceforCanada.Forthesecategories,renewablesincludesolar,wind,biomass,biofuels,andmunicipalsolidwastesources.Hydroreferstorun-of-riverhydro,“storagehydro”(hydraulicswithalargereservoir),wave,andtidalsources.Naturalgasandoilrefertonaturalgas,biogas,oil,anddieselsources.Coalreferstocokeandcoal,whilenuclearreferstonuclearpower.

EachjurisdictionhasincentivizedthepurchaseofEVsinvariousways.Theseincludeaminimumnationalcarbontaxthatprogressivelyincreases(andismainlyreflectedingasolineanddieselprices),EV-productionmandates,governmentfinancingforchargingstations,andsubsidiesforEVpurchases.AsthetechnologyforEVsimproves,consumersaremorelikelytopurchasethem.Thesefactorsallplayedaroleintheincreaseinnewelectricvehicleregistrationsoverthepastseveralyears(seefigure4).

InformationconcerningthevehiclefleetinCanadaandthethreeprovincesisprovidedintheprevioussection.Wecouldnotfindanydataforyearsbefore2010,sowehavetakenthecumulativenumberofnewvehicleregistrationsbyprovincetogetanideaofthefueltypesthatmakeupthefleetofvehiclesineachjurisdiction.Realistically,thereareprobablymoregasolinevehiclesthanourestimatesindicate,becauseofthepopularityofICEspriorto2010(StatisticsCanada,2022).Duetothelackofdata,inthissectionweonlyprovideinformationongrowthofEVsincomparisontogrowthinelectricitydemandsince2010(CanadaEnergyRegulator,2021;2023-a).Thefocusisonelectricityproductionandthepotentialtomeetfutureloadincreases.Then,insection4,weexploretheextenttowhichgenera