2023、24年人类发展报告概览-英

REPORT2023/2024SNAPSHOT

Reimagining

cooperationin

apolarizedworld

Copyright@2024

BytheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme

1UNPlaza,NewYork,NY10017USA

Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,

storedinaretrievalsystemortransmitted,inanyformorbymeans,

electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,without

priorpermission.

Generaldisclaimers.Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentation

ofthematerialinthispublicationdonotimplytheexpressionofany

opinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheHumanDevelopmentReport

Office(HDRO)oftheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)

concerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofits

authorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.

Dottedanddashedlinesonmapsrepresentapproximateborderlines

forwhichtheremaynotyetbefullagreement.

Thefindings,analysis,andrecommendationsoftheReport,aswith

previousReports,donotrepresenttheofficialpositionoftheUNDPor

ofanyoftheUNMemberStatesthatarepartofitsExecutiveBoard.

Theyarealsonotnecessarilyendorsedbythosementionedinthe

acknowledgmentsorcited.

REPORT2023/2024

Reimagining

cooperationin

apolarizedworld

The2023/2024Human

DevelopmentReport

Thementionofspecificcompaniesdoesnotimplythattheyare

endorsedorrecommendedbyUNDPinpreferencetoothersofasimilar

naturethatarenotmentioned.

Someofthefiguresincludedintheanalyticalpartofthereportwhere

indicatedhavebeenestimatedbytheHDROorothercontributorstothe

Reportandarenotnecessarilytheofficialstatisticsoftheconcerned

country,areaorterritory,whichmayusealternativemethods.Allthe

figuresincludedintheStatisticalAnnexarefromofficialsources.All

reasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbytheHDROtoverifythe

informationcontainedinthispublication.However,thepublished

materialisbeingdistributedwithoutwarrantyofanykind,either

expressedorimplied.

Theresponsibilityfortheinterpretationanduseofthemateriallieswith

thereader.InnoeventshalltheHDROandUNDPbeliablefordamages

arisingfromitsuse.

Thesignedcontributionsinboxesandspotlightsrepresenttheopinions

oftheauthorsandaretheproductofindependentresearchoftheir

responsibility.Theydonotrepresentnecessarilythepositionoropinions

oftheHumanDevelopmentReportOfficeorUNDP.Anyerrorsor

omissionsaretheauthors’responsibility.Theyarepresentedinthe

reporttostimulatedebateandtoencouragefurtherdialoguebetween

researchersanddecisionmakers.

PrintedintheUSA,byAGS,anRRDonnelleyCompany,onForest

StewardshipCouncilcertifiedandelementalchlorine-freepapers.

Printedusingvegetable-basedink.

r

HUMANDEVELOPMENT

REPORT2023/2024

SNAPSHOT

Breakingthegridlock

Asnapshotofthe2023/2024

HumanDevelopmentReport

Breakingthegridlock

Asnapshotofthe2023/2024HumanDevelopmentReport

HUMANDEVELOPMENTREPORT2023/2024

Wecandobetterthanthis.Betterthanrunawaycli-matechangeandpandemics.Betterthanaspateofunconstitutionaltransfersofpoweramidarising,globalizingtideofpopulism.Betterthancascadinghumanrightsviolationsandunconscionablemassa-cresofpeopleintheirhomesandcivicvenues,inhos-pitals,schoolsandshelters.

Wemustdobetterthanaworldalwaysonthebrink,asocioecologicalhouseofcards.Weoweittoour-selves,toeachother,toourchildrenandtheirchildren.

Wehavesomuchgoingforus.

Weknowwhattheglobalchallengesareandwhowillbemostaffectedbythem.Andweknowtherewillsurelybemorethatwecannotanticipatetoday.

Weknowwhichchoicesofferbetteropportunitiesforpeace,sharedprosperityandsustainability,betterwaystonavigateinteractinglayersofuncertaintyand

interlinkedplanetarysurprises.1

Weenjoyunprecedentedwealth,knowhowandtechnology—unimaginabletoourancestors—thatwithmoreequitabledistributionandusecouldpowerboldandnecessarychoicesforpeaceandforsustainable,in-clusivehumandevelopmentonwhichpeacedepends.

Sowhydoespursuingtheambitionsofthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopmentandtheParisAgreementfeellikeahalf-heartedslogthroughquicksand?

Whyinmanyplacesdoesrestoringpeace,evenpausesorceasefiresashopefulpreludestopeace,feelsoelusive?

Whyareweimmobilizedondigitalgovernancewhileartificialintelligenceracesaheadinadatagoldrush?

Inshort,whyarewesostuck?Andhowdowegetunstuckwithoutresortingmyopicallytovio-lenceorisolationism?Thesequestionsmotivatethe2023/2024HumanDevelopmentReport.

Sharpquestionsbelietheircomplexity;issueswithpowerdisparitiesattheircoreoftendefyeasyexpla-nation.Magicbulletsenticebutmislead—sirensongspeddledbysloganeeringthatexploitsgroup-basedgrievances.Slicksolutionsandsimplerecipespoisonourwillingnesstodothehardworkofovercomingpolarization.

Geopoliticalquagmiresabound,drivenbyshift-ingpowerdynamicsamongstatesandbynationalgazesyankedinwardbyinequalities,insecurityandpolarization,allrecurringthemesinthisandrecent

HumanDevelopmentReports.Yetweneednotsitonourhandssimplybecausegreatpowercompetitionisheatingupwhilecountriesunderrepresentedinglob-algovernanceseekagreatersayinmattersofglobalimport.Recallthatglobalcooperationonsmallpoxeradicationandprotectionoftheozonelayer,amongotherimportantissuessuchasnuclearnonprolifera-tion,happenedoverthecourseoftheColdWar.

Sliversofhopehaveemergedevennow.TheUkrainegraindeal,beforeitssuspensionin2023,avertedwidespreadfoodinsecurity,whichwouldhavehurtpoorercountriesandpoorerpeoplemost.TheproductionofCovid-19vaccines,whichsavedmillionsoflives,reliesonglobalsupplychains,al-though,tragically,manymorelivescouldhavebeensavedifvaccinecoveragehadbeenmoreequitable.

2

Countriescontinuetocooperateongenomicse-quencingofvariants,evenasshamefulinequitiesinvaccineaccesspersist.

3

Atthe28thConferenceofthePartiestotheUNFrameworkConventiononClimate

Change,theworldestablishedanewlossanddam-agefundtobenefitmorethan3billionpeople,withpledgestotallingover$600million.

4

Globalcleanenergyinvestment,andthejobsandopportunitiesthatcomewithit,reachedanall-timehighof$1.8tril-lionin2023(equivalenttothesizeoftheeconomyoftheRepublicofKorea),almosttwicetheamountin2020.

5

Howeverchallengingtheyare,geopoliticsaresim-plynotanexcusetostaystuckingridlock.Therearepathsthrough.Reimaginingandfullyprovidingglob-alpublicgoodsinwaysthatmeetnationaldevelop-mentneedsatthesametimeisoneofthem.

The2021–2022HumanDevelopmentReportar-guedthatanewuncertaintycomplexisunsettlinglivestheworldoveranddraggingonhumandevelopment.TheglobalHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)valuefellforthefirsttimeever—inboth2020and2021.

TheglobalHDIvaluehassincereboundedtoaprojectedrecordhighin2023(figureS.1).Allcompo-nentsoftheglobalHDIareprojectedtoexceedtheirpre-2019values.

6

Despitebeingprojectedtoreachanewhigh,theglobalHDIvaluewouldstillbebelowtrend.Andtheglobalfiguremasksdisturbingdivergenceacrosscountries:everyOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentcountryisprojectedtohaverecovered,butonlyabouthalfoftheLeast

SnApSHot—BReAkingtHegRiDlock3

0.800

0.750

0.700

0.650

FigureS.1ApermanentshiftintheHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)trajectory?

GlobalHDIvalue

Pre-2019trend

Actual

20152017201920212023

(projected)

0.600

1999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023

(projected)

Note:theglobalHDivaluefor2023isaprojection.thepre-2019trendisbasedontheevolutionoftheglobalHDivalueintheprevious20years.

Source:HumanDevelopmentReportofficecalculationsbasedondatafromBarroandlee(2018),iMF(2023),UnDeSA(2022,2023),UneScoinstituteforStatistics(2023),UnitednationsStatisticsDivision(2023)andWorldBank(2023).

FigureS.2RecoveryofHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)valuessincethe2020–2021declineisprojectedtobe

highlyunequal

Countryrecoveryby2023from

theHDIsetbackin2020or2021

51%

didnot

recover

49%

recovered

OrganisationforEconomic

Co-operationand

Development

LeastDevelopedCountries

100%

recovered

Note:leastDevelopedcountrieshavelowlevelsofincomeandfacevulner-abilitiesthatmakethem“thepoorestandweakestsegment”oftheinterna-tionalcommunity(

/ohrlls/content/about-least-developed

-countries

).RecoverymeansthatcountriesthatsufferedadeclineinHDivaluein2020or2021areprojectedtoreachorsurpasstheirpre-declineHDivalueby2023.

Source:HumanDevelopmentReportofficecalculationsbasedondatafromBarroandlee(2018),iMF(2023),UnDeSA(2022,2023),UneScoinstituteforStatistics(2023),UnitednationsStatisticsDivision(2023)andWorldBank(2023).

DevelopedCountriesareprojectedtohavedoneso(figureS.2).After20yearsofsteadyprogress,ine-qualitybetweencountriesattheupperandlowerendsoftheHDIhasreversedcourse,tickingupeachyearsince2020(figureS.3).

IftheglobalHDIvaluecontinuestoevolvebelowthepre-2019trend,asithassince2020,losseswillbepermanent.Basedonthe1999–2019trend,theglob-alHDIvaluewasontracktocrossthethresholddefin-

ingveryhighhumandevelopment(avalueof0.800)by2030—coincidingwiththedeadlinetomeettheSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Now,theworldisofftrack.Indeed,everyregion’sprojected2023HDIvaluefallsbelowitspre-2019trend.Whateveritsfuturetrajectory,theglobalHDIvaluewillcapture—incompletely,ifatall—manyotherimportantele-ments,suchasthedebilitatingeffectsofchronicillnessorthespikesinmentalhealthdisordersorinviolenceagainstwomen,allrestrictingpeople’spossibilitiesfortheirlives.Forrichandpoorcountriesalikesomeloss-eswillneverberecovered.Whateverthechartsand

indicatorsmaysayaboutpeopletoday,theCovid-19pandemictooksome15millionlives.

7

Wecannotgetthemback.Northetimesiphonedoffinsomanyways—inisolation,incaregiving,innotattendingschool.

TheHDIisanimportant,ifcrude,yardstickforhumandevelopment.Justafewyearsagowellbeinghadneverbeenhigher,povertyneverlower.Yetpeople

4HUMANDEVELOPMENTREPORT2023/2024

FigureS.3InequalitybetweenveryhighHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)andlowHDIcountriesisincreasing,buckinglong-rundeclines

DiferenceinHDIvaluebetween

veryhighandlowHDIcountries

0.44

0.42

17

0.40

0.38

199019931996199920022005200820112014

(projected)

2020

2023

(projected)

201720202023

0.39

0.38

20

Note:thedifferenceinHDivaluesfor2023isbasedonprojections.

Source:HumanDevelopmentReportofficecalculationsbasedondatafromBarroandlee(2018),iMF(2023),UnDeSA(2022,2023),UneScoinstituteforStatistics(2023),UnitednationsStatisticsDivision(2023)andWorldBank(2023).

aroundtheworldwerereportinghighlevelsofsad-ness,stressandworry(figureS.4).

8

Thoseself-reportedmeasureshavesincerisenfornearly3billionpeople.

9

Andwhile9in10peopleshowunwaveringsupportfortheidealofdemocracy,therehasbeenanincreaseinthosesupportingleaderswhomayundermineit:today,forthefirsttimeever,morethanhalftheglobalpopulationsupportssuchleaders(figureS.5)

.10

Theuncertaintycomplexhascastaverylongshad-owonhumandevelopmentwritlarge,withrecentyearsmarkingperhapsanunfortunateandavoidableforkinitspathratherthanashort-livedsetback.

Whatgives?

Progressfeelshardertograsp,especiallywhenplanetarypressuresarebroughtintoview;ourstandarddevelopmentmeasuresareclearlymiss-ingsomethings.Oneofthosethingsmaybethedisempowermentofpeople—gapsinhumanagency—whichistakingcombinedhitsfromnewconfigu-rationsofglobalcomplexityandinterdependence,uncertainty,insecurityandpolarization.

Peoplearelookingforanswersandawayforward.Thiscanbechannelledhelpfullyviasharedam-bitionthatbringseveryonealong(notnecessarilyoneverything)inareasofcooperationthatarenotzero-sum,enabledbycooperativenarrativesand

institutionsbuiltonabedrockofgeneralizedtrust.Overthepast10yearsbothveryhighandhighHDIcountrieshaveimprovedtheirHDIvalueswithoutincreasingplanetarypressures,ashiftfromprevioustrendsofthetwoincreasingtogether,sotherearerea-sonstohopethatthismightbepossible(figureS.6).

Oritcanbechannelled,asitseemsnow,intovi-ciouscyclesofdemonizingblamegamesthatbreed,atbest,suspicionanddistrustand,atworst,preju-dice,discriminationandviolence.

Troublingly,populismhasexploded,blowingpastlastcentury’speaks,whichroughlycorrespondedtoperiodsofmismanagedglobalization.

11

Thatishap-peningalongside,andinmanycasesexploiting,wick-edformsofpolarization,suchasthewinnowingandhardeningofnarrowidentities,asortofcoercionorunfreedomenabled,ifnotoutrightcelebrated,byanongoingfetishizationofso-calledrationalself-interest. People’sabilitytodetermineforthemselveswhatitmeanstoliveagoodlife,includingdefiningandreas-sessingtheirresponsibilitiestootherpeopleandtotheplanet,hasbeencrowdedoutinmanyways.Metastat-ichands-offdogmahidestheraidingoftheeconomicandecologicalcookiejar.Dog-eat-dogandbeggar-thy-neighbourmindsetsharkenbacktomercantilisteras.Andpoliciesandinstitutions—includingthose

SnApSHot—BReAkingtHegRiDlock5

FigureS.4Self-reportedstressroseinmostcountries,evenbeforetheCovid-19pandemic

Changeinthepercentageofpeoplereportingexperiencingstress,

2011–2019(percentagepoints)

Increase

60

40

20

0

–20

–40

–60

–80

VeryhighHDIgroup

39outof59countries

Decrease

MediumHDI

group

25outof32countries

24outof40countries

24outof30countries

HighHDIgroup

LowHDI

group

HDiisHumanDevelopmentindex.

Note:Valuesrefertothechangeinthepercentageofpeoplewhoreportedexperiencingstress“duringalotofthedayyesterday.”Source:HumanDevelopmentReportoffice,basedongallup(2023).

thathavemismanagedglobalizedmarketdynamics—defaultto“me”before“we.”

Weareatanunfortunatecrossroad.Polarization

anddistrustareonacollisioncoursewithanailingplanet.Insecurityandinequalitieshavealottodowithit.Sodoesaconstellationofdisempoweringnarrativesthatengenderdefensivefatalismandcat-astrophicinertia—allcircumscribedand,insomesensefuelledby,dizzyingpoliticalpolarization.

Whatcanwedotohelpturnthingsaround?Quitealot.

Builda21stcenturyarchitectureforglobalpublicgoods

First,weshouldbuildouta21stcenturyarchitecturetodelivertheglobalpublicgoodsthatwealldependon.Itwouldfunctionasathirdtracktointernational

cooperation,complementingdevelopmentassis-tancefocusedonpoorercountriesandhumanitarianassistancefocusedonemergencies.Thesetracksarenotsilos.Distinctively,aglobalpublicgoodsarchi-tecturewouldaimfortransfersfromrichcountries

topooreronesthatadvancegoalsforeverycountrytobenefit.Everycountryhasachancetohaveasay,aswellasanopportunitytocontribute.Assuch,thisthirdtrackisintrinsicallymultilateral.

Globalpublicgoodswillrequireadditionalfinanc-ingasacomplement,ratherthansubstitutefororcompetitor,totraditionaldevelopmentassistance.Thefinancingcancomeinmanyforms.Forexam-ple,whensomeportionofaninvestmentinapoorercountrygeneratesglobalbenefits,thecorrespondingfinancing(ortechnologytransfer)shouldtendtobeconcessional,sothatalignmentisachievedbetweenwhobenefits(therestoftheworld)andwhopays(the

6HUMANDEVELOPMENTREPORT2023/2024

FigureS.5Thedemocracyparadox?Unwaveringsupportfordemocracybutincreasingsupportforleaderswhomayundermineit

Percentofpopulationthatthinkspositively

aboutleaderswhomayunderminedemocracy

60

Majorityofpopulationthinkspositivelyaboutdemocracy

butalsoaboutleaderswhomayundermineit

2017–2022

50

2010–2014

2005–2009

40

1994–1998

1999–2004

Majorityofpopulationthinkspositivelyaboutdemocracy

andleaderswhodonotundermineit

30

5060708090

Percentofpopulationthatthinkspositivelyabouthavingademocraticsystem

100

40

Note:Dataarepopulation-weightedaveragesforapanelofcountriesrepresenting76percentoftheglobalpopulation.percentofpopulationontheverti-calaxisreferstopeoplewhorespondedthathavingastrongleaderwhodoesnothavetobotherwithparliamentandelectionsis“verygood”or“fairlygood.”percentofpopulationonthehorizontalaxisreferstopeoplewhorespondedthathavingademocraticpoliticalsystemis“verygood”or“fairlygood.”

Source:HumanDevelopmentReportofficebasedondatafrommultiplewavesoftheWorldValuesSurvey(inglehartandothers2022).

restoftheworld).Theflipsideisthecaseofhazardsorshocksthatarenotofasinglecountry’smaking.Automatictriggerscanbeembeddedinbondsorloanagreements,especiallystate-contingentdebtin-struments,tohelppoorercountriescopewithcrisesthattheyhadlittlepartingenerating,aswithclimatechange.Thiswouldcreatemorepredictablecondi-tionsinnavigatinganuncertainworldthatcouldmo-bilizeandattractprivatefinancetothosecountries.

Dialdowntemperaturesandpushbackpolarization

Second,weneedtodialdownthetemperatureandpushbackonpolarization,whichpoisonspracticallyeverythingittouchesandimpedesinternationalco-operation.Providingglobalpublicgoodswillhelp.So

willcorrectingmisperceptionsaboutotherpeople’spreferencesandmotivations.Alltoooftenpeoplemakebiasedassumptionsaboutotherpeople,in-cludingpeopleontheothersideofpoliticaldivides.Often,peopleagreewithoneanothermorethantheythink.Forexample,while69percentofpeo-plearoundtheworldreportbeingwillingtosacrificesomeoftheirincometocontributetoclimatechangemitigation,only43percentperceiveothersbeliev-ingthesame(a26percentagepointmisperceptiongap).

12

Theresultisafalsesocialrealityofpluralisticignorancewhereincorrectbeliefsaboutothersham-stringscooperationthat,ifrecognizedandcorrected,couldhelpbuildcollectiveactiononclimate.

Notallpolarizationcanbereducedtomispercep-tion,howeverbigaroleitplays.Thatmakesitimpor-tanttocreatespacesofdeliberationtobridgedivides.

SnApSHot—BReAkingtHegRiDlock7

FigureS.6Reasonsforhope:ImprovementsontheHumanDevelopmentIndexwithoutincreasingplanetarypressures

IndexofPlanetaryPressuresvalue

0.180

VeryhighHDIcountries

1990

.

0.160

in

2022

0.140

TheHDIvalueofhighHDIcountriesisapproaching

theHDIvalueofveryhighHDIcountries

0.120

0.100

1990butwithlowerplanetarypressures

2022

HighHDI

0.080

countries●●

The2022HDIvalueoflowHDIcountriesis

.

.

similartotheHDIvalueofmediumHDIcountriesin2003butwithlowerplanetarypressures

.

0.060

.

The2022HDIvalueofmediumHDIcountriesissimilartotheHDIvalueofhighHDIcountriesin2002butwithlowerplanetarypressures

1990●

0.040

MediumHDI

countries

1990

2022

LowHDIcountries

0.020

.

.

1990

2022

0.000

0.3500.4500.5500.6500.7500.8500.950

HumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)value

Note:theindexofplanetarypressuresisconstructedusingthepercapitalevelsofcarbondioxideemissions(production)andmaterialfootprintineachcountry(itis1minustheadjustmentfactorforplanetarypressurespresentedintable7intheStatisticalAnnexofthefullReport).

Source:HumanDevelopmentReportoffice.Seespecificsourcesintables2and7intheStatisticalAnnexofthefullReport.

Citizenassembliescanfunctioninthisway,buttheyarenottheonlymeans.Practicalschemestofacili-tatemoredeliberativeprocessingofinformationcanhelpcounterthegrowingdangerofpeoplebecomingtrappedinbeliefsthathavenobasisinfact.

13

Incon-textsofintergroupconflict,presentinginformationinaframethatdoesnotprovokeangercanbedepo-larizing.

14

Interventionsthatrelyonqualitativeandnarrative-basedapproaches,suchasstorytellingandvignettes,areparticularlyeffective.

15

Thekeywordsaredeliberateanddeliberative.Po-larizationismorelikelytoself-destructbadlythantoself-correcthelpfully.Steadypositivepressurethaten-couragesempathy,buildsinterpersonaltrustandem-phasizesoverlapping,sharedidentitiesisthewaytogo.

Narrowagencygaps

Third,weneedtonarrowagencygaps—fuelledinpartbythedivergencebetweenwhatpeoplebelieveispossibleorprobableandwhatisobjectivelypossi-ble.

16

Agencygapsarealsoapparentinhalfofpeople

worldwidereportingthattheyhavenoorlimitedcon-trolovertheirlivesandmorethantwo-thirdsperceiv-ingthattheyhavelittleinfluenceinthedecisionsoftheirgovernment(figureS.7).

Tohelpnarrowagencygaps,institutionsneedtobecomemorepeople-centred,co-ownedandfuture-oriented.

People-centredisaboutplacingultimateobjectivesintermsofhumandevelopmentandhumansecurity,recognizingtheinterdependenceofpeopleandtheplanet.

Co-ownedisaboutthefairdistributionofthepowertosetcollectivegoals,theresponsibilitiestopursuethemandtheresultingoutcomes.Itstressesthefor-mationofsocialnormsthatcultivatethevalueofcol-lectiveachievementsandcooperativebehaviour.

17

Future-orientedisaboutfocusingonwhatwecanshapeandcreateifweworktogether,enrichingthespacefordeliberationandagreement.

18

Inthefaceofchallenges,afuture-orientedperspectiveopenspos-sibilitiesforhopeandcreativeresolve.

Tailoringtheseprinciplestodifferentcontextswillputusontheroadtoproductivedialogueandaction,

8HUMANDEVELOPMENTREPORT2023/2024

FigureS.7Agencygapsincollectiveactionarehigherthanthoseincontroloverone’sownlife

Controloverownlife

5in10orabouthalftheworld’speoplereportnotbeingincontroloftheirownlives

Voiceinpoliticalsystem

7in10or68percentofpeoplereportthattheyhavelittleinfluence

inthedecisionsoftheirgovernment

Note:Agencyistheabilityofpeopletoactasagentswhocandoeffectivethingsbasedontheircommitments(Sen2013).itisproxiedbytwoindica-

tors:theshareofthepopulationthatreportedfeelingincontrolovertheirlives(measuredonascaleof1–10,where1–3indicatesanacuteagencygap,4–7indicatesamoderateagencygapand8–10indicatesnoagencygap)andtheshareofthepopulationthatreportedfeelingthattheirvoiceisheardinthepoliticalsystem(thosewhoresponded“Agreatdeal”or“Alot”).Dataarecomputedusingmicrodataandequalweightsacrosscountries.

Source:HumanDevelopmentReportofficebasedondatafromwave7(2017–2022)oftheWorldValuesSurvey(inglehartandothers2022).

whichmustbeflexibleanditerativeamidsomuchuncertainty,forlessonstoinformcoursecorrections.

Theywillhelpusbreakthroughthetyrannyofsingleadversarialnarrativesandsingleexclusiveidentities.

Theywillhelpusbettermanageevolvingglobalinterdependence.

Theywillhelpuscooperativelyandpeacefullybreakthroughtheglobalgridlock.

SnApSHot—BReAkingtHegRiDlock9

Notes

1

SeeUNDP(2020,2022a).

2

Watsonandothers2022.

3

SeetheUnitedNationsDevelopmentPro-gramme’sGlobalDashboardforVaccineEquityat

/insights/vaccine-equity.

4

Vaidyanathan2024.Thesepledgesstillfallshortoftheannuallossanddamagesassoci-atedwithclimatechange,whichhavebeenestimatedtobeashighas$400billionayear.

5

/blog/global-clean

-energy-investment-jumps-17-hits-1-8-trillion

-in-2023-according-to-bloombergnef-report/

(accessed31January2024).

6

HDIdataupto2022arefromtable1intheStatisticalAnnexofthefullReport.Valuesfor2023areprojectionsusingthesamedatasourcesusedforthattable.

7

Msemburiandothers2023.

8

SeeUNDP(2022b).

9

Some3billionpeoplereportfeelingworriedtoday,anincreaseof687millionpeopleoverthepastdecade;2billionpeoplereportsad-ness,540millionpeoplemorethanadecadeago;and2.9billionpeopleexperiencestress,anincreaseof596millionpeopleoverthepastdecade(HumanDevelopmentReportOfficecalculationsbasedondatafromGallup2003).DalyandMacchia(2023)documentanincreaseintheprevalenceoffeelingsofemotionaldistressbetween2009and2021.

10

SeeKurlantzick(2022),Nichols(2021)andUNDP(2023).

11

Funke,SchularickandTrebesch2023.

12

Andreandothers2024.

13

FernbachandVanBoven2022.

14

Gur,AyalandHalperin2021.

15

Graeber,RothandZimmerman2023;Vogtandothers2016.

16

DemerittandHoff2023.Expandingagencyisaboutenhancingtheabilityofpeopletobeagentsofchange.Policieshavenotstress