德勤：2025年汽车供应商展望-零部件

TheFutureofthe

AutomotiveValueChain

Supplierindustryoutlook2025

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

03

Preface

Unprecedentedchangeintheautomotiveworldanditspotentialimpactonthesupplierindustry

Fourplausiblescenariosfortheautomotivevalue

chainandtheirimplicationsforthesupplierindustry

TheDeloitteAutomotiveValueChainIndustryModel

Investigatingspecificmaterialcostdevelopments:Selectedmodeldeepdives

Overallmodelresultoverview

Transformationpathstowards2025forthe

automotivesupplierindustry

Fromintegratedmaterialcostprojectionstotailor-madetransformationstrategiesforautomotivesuppliers

Conclusion

Contacts

05

06

12

20

30

45

46

63

67

68

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TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

05

Preface

Automotiveplayersarefacingdisruptive

times.Manyinsights,opinions,andrec-

ommendationshavebeenvoicedonthis.Earlierin2017,wepublishedourviewsonthedriversthatwilllikelyshapetheauto-

motiveindustryoverthenextdecade.Werankedandfusedtheseintofourscenarionarratives,givinganoutlineofwhatthe

automotivevaluechainmightlooklikein

2025.Ourpreviousissueprimarilyhigh-

lightedimplicationsforcarmanufacturers(OEMs).Inthisnextpiecewemovefurtherdownthevaluechain,inanattempttoshedlightonsuppliermarketimplications.

Wedefinedasetoffourhypothesesasastartingpointtoourinvestigation:

•Commonlydiscussedautomotive

mega-trends,likeconnectedandauton-omousdriveorelectrification,willleadtosignificantchangeindemandforspecificvehiclecomponentclusters

•Asaresult(some)supplierswillfacedras-ticallyshrinkingmarketvolumes,whereasothersmustbeabletomanagemassivedemandincreases

•Thiswillresultinsignificant,strategic,operational,financial,transformationdemandformanysuppliers

•Portfolioandlocalizationstrategydefini-tionprocessesshouldbesupportedbyasolidmarketvolumeprojectionmodeltakingallthesedriversandmegatrends

intoaccount

Weworkedtowardsvalidatingallthese

hypothesesbydevelopingtheDeloitte

AutomotiveValueChain(AVC)Industry

Model,acomprehensivematerialcost

forecastingtool,whichgivesvolume

predictionsbrokendownintoavehicle's

componentclusters.Themodelshowsthat15outof19vehiclecomponentclusters

willlikelyseeadeclineinmarketvolume

(inGermany,NAFTAandChina;notcon-

sideringeffectsfromgeneralinflationor

sparepartsdemand).Thebiggestlosers

willbecomponentsrelatedtoconventionalcombustionengines,e.g.transmissions

droppingupto-36%involume.Likely

winners,especiallysupplierswithstakesinthefieldsofelectricdrivetrainsandbatterytechnology,aswellasautonomousdrivingfeaturedevelopment,ontheotherhand,mustpreparetomanageandcaterfor

growingdemandofupto15timestheir

currentvolume.RegionalprojectionsshowthatwhilematerialcostvolumesinGerma-nyarefacingageneraldecline,volumesinChinawillincreaseduetogeneralstrongvehiclesalesforecasts.

Ourcorepremise,however,isthatscenar-io-basedthinkingisthebestpreparation

fordealingwiththeuncertaintiesthefutureautomotiveindustrydevelopmentshold.

Therefore,wespliteachofourvolumepro-jectionsalongourfourscenariosfor2025andbeyond.

BypresentingtheDeloitteAVCIndustryModelnowtothebroaderpublic,weare

confidentthatwearebringingvaluablesupporttothetableforautomotivede-cisionmakerswhenitcomestotacklingsomeofthemostburningstrategicdeci-sions.

Wehopeyouenjoyreadingourinsights

andthoughtsonthefutureoftheautomo-tivevaluechainandtherelatedsupplier

markets.

JoeVitale

GlobalAutomotiveLead

atDeloitteConsulting

Dr.ThomasSchiller

GlobalAutomotiveConsultingLeadatDeloitteConsulting

06

motiveindustrytodayisinastateofconstantpressure:Fromcus-

tomersdemandingnewandcostlyfeatures–oftenwithoutshowingadditionalwillingnesstopay.Fromregulatorsrightfullydemanding

strictestadherencetoenviron-

mentalandsafetystandards.

Andalsofrommajortechplayerswithpocketsfullofcashpushinginvestmentinmobilitybusiness

modelsandthreateningtraditionalOEMdominance.

Unprecedentedchangein

theautomotiveworldandits

potentialimpactonthesupplierindustry

Morethaneverbefore,theauto-

connect

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

07

20%

08

Context

Itiswellknownthatthen-tierautomotivesupplychainisstronglyinterlinkedandul-timatelydependsheavilyontoday’sseem-inglyalmightyOEMs.Theburningquestionformanydecision-makersintheautomo-tivesupplierindustryishowtoREACTto

these,potentiallyexistential,changesandthreatsintheindustrylandscape.Or,moreimportantly:HowtoACT,withvigorand

strategicforesight,andbeinapositionnotonlytosurvive,buttocomeoutontopofthedisruptionsfacingtheautomotivevaluechainuntil2025andbeyond.

Thisstudyfocusesonpossibledevelop-

mentsinsuppliermarketvolumes,theirun-derlyingtrendsaswellastheirimplicationsfordecisionmakers:Intheeconomicandpoliticalsphere,atautomotivesuppliersaswellasinOEMdevelopment,purchasing,

andmanufacturingdepartments.Weaimtosupportautomotiveleadersintimesofgreatuncertaintybyhighlightingfourquan-tifiedscenariosofwhattheautomotive

ecosystemmightlooklikein2025.

Studyapproach

Followinguponourpreviousissueonthefutureoftheautomotivevaluechain,we

basedallourconsiderationsononesimpleassumption:Futureindustrydevelop-

mentsarehardlyeverone-dimensional.

Rather,theyarebasedonamultitudeof

drivers,whichalmostneverdevelopina

straightforwardway.Whenuncertaintyishigh,thinkinginscenarioscanhelp.Sowereviewedthefourscenarionarrativesde-scribingpossiblestatesoftheautomotivevaluechainin2025,whichweredevelopedforthepreviousstudy–togetherwith

severaltopautomotivemanagers,mobilityentrepreneurs,researchers,lobbyists,

aswellasITandbatterydevelopers.We

enhancedthesescenarionarrativeswith

morein-depthinsightsanddiscussions

aroundthefutureoftheautomotivesupplierindustry,sowewereabletospecificallytack-lesupplier-relatedconcerns(inchapterII).

Themethodicalbaseforthisdifferentiated

analysiswasthebreakdownofavehicle

intoitsmodulesandcomponents:Whatwill

electrification,connectedandautonomous

drivingorotherusertrendschangein

componentsusedinthecarofthefuture?

Whatarethematerialcostimplications

fromthesetrends?Andconsequently,what

impactwillallofthishaveonsuppliermar-

ketvolumesandindustrystructures?

Wedevelopedanintegratedcalculation

model,summarizingallourthinkingandas-

sumptionsonfuturematerialcosttrends–

distinguishedalongthefourscenarios

outlinedabove.FromthisDeloitteAVC

IndustryModelwederiveddifferentiated

materialcostmarketvolumeforecasts

2025forvehiclesinGermany,Chinaand

NAFTA(inchapterIII).

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

09

Whatwillthe

supplier

landscapelooklikein2025?

Howfastwillcustomersacceptautonomous

drivingoncethesafetyissuesaresolved?

Shouldsupplierssetuppartnershipstoworktogetheronnewtechnologies,andwithwhom?

Fig.1–Questionsfromselectedinterviewswithautomotivesuppliersandotherindustryexperts

Whichdrivetraintechnologywillprevailinthefutureandhowdoesitimpactmyportfoliostrategy?

Whatwillcarslooklikein

2025?

Howwillthe

changingrequire-mentsshift

capacitiesand

demandwork-

forcetransfor-

mation?

Howcansupplierswithshrinkingmarketvolumescompensatethesenegative

effects?

Weexemplifyourreasoningandmodel

outputs(inchapterIV)alongfourselectedvehiclecomponentclusterswherewe

mightseethebiggestmaterialcostimpactuntil2025–andalsofacethegreatest

uncertainty:Interior&infotainmentsys-

tems,drivetraintechnologies(incl.internalcombustionengines,transmissionand

alternativedrivetrains),highvoltage(HV)batteries&fuelcells,anddriverassistancesystems.Weprovideanoutlineofthekeytechnologytrendsthatareexpectedto

determinethelong-termmaterialcostde-velopmentforeachcomponentcluster.Ineachcase,however,westressthedifferentspecificationsthesetechnologytrendscanhave,dependingontheoverallscenariooftheautomotiveworldweanticipate.

TheseandfurtherresultsfromtheDeloitte

AVC2025IndustryModel(summarized

inchapterV)shedlightonsubstantial,

insomecasesevenburning,needsfor

change.Thisstudythereforeconcludes(in

chaptersVIandVII)withadiscussionofim-

plicationsandrecommendationsforthree

spheresoftheautomotiveecosystem:

Politicalactorsandlobbygroupswhenit

comestofutureindustryandemployment

structures.OEMexecutivesresponsible

forpurchasing,research&development

aswellasmanufacturing.Andmostim-

portantly:Decision-makersatautomotive

suppliersfacingquestionsaroundstrate-

gicallyreassessingproductportfoliosand

potentiallyrestructuringoperations.

ZF:Electriccarscoulddestroyover

100,000jobs

Handelsblatt

Forautomakersandsuppliers,SiliconValleyisasmuchashiftin

mindsetasalocation

Forbes

SupplierBroseseesthefutureofelectriccarsinChina

SüddeutscheZeitung

BaiduforgesallianceswithGermanauto

suppliers

FinancialTimes

JointventurebyValeoandSiemensdedicatedtohighvoltagepowertrainsstartsoperation

TheDeloitte

AVC2025Industry

Modelshedslighton

thesubstantial,insome

casesburning,needfor

changeatautomotive

suppliers

10

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

11

Boschinventsnew

electriccarbatterytodoublemileage

TheTelegraph

"Badbanks"supposedtosaveGerman

automotivesupplierbusiness

DieWelt

Continentalbuyssensortechnologyforself-drivingcars

WSJ

Musk'selectriccar

visiondoubtedby

majorpartssuppliers

BloombergTechnology

AI:30,000,000,000,000

computational

processesinone

second

FrankfurterAllgemeine

Zeitung

Continental:Supplierseesnofuturefor

dieselandgasoline

SpiegelOnline

Fig.2–Signpoststotheautomotivefuture

HellaandZF

formstrategic

partnership

Automobilwoche

Continental

partnerswithBMWandIntel

managermagazin

Fourplausiblescenarios

fortheautomotivevaluechainandtheirimplicationsforthesupplierindustry

Scenario-basedthinkingcansupport

decision-makingundercircumstances

ofhighuncertainty.Wecreatedfour

plausiblescenariosforautomotive

suppliersaspartoftheautomotive

valuechainin2025.

12

2+

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

13

14

Distinctandmeaningful

scenariosunfoldfromdrivers

wherehighimpactandhigh

uncertaintycoincide

Inourpreviouspiece"TheFutureof

theAutomotiveValueChain–2025and

beyond"welaidoutfourquintessential

scenariostodescribethefutureofthe

automotiveindustry.Comingfromthis

base,thecoreassumptionsunderlyingthescenarioswereadoptedandtransferred

tothesupplierlandscape.Butbeforewegettothat,abriefrecapoftheoverall2025valuechainscenarios.

High-influencedriversfortheautomo-tivevaluechain

Weanalyzedawidevarietyofdriversfromtheareasofsocialchange,technologicaladvancement,economicshifts,environ-mentaltrends,andpoliticaldevelopment.These60+driverswereinturnassessed

fortheirdegreeofuncertaintyandtheir

impactonthefutureautomotivevalue

chain,focusingontheupstreamlinksof

thevaluechainsuchasR&D,procure-

ment,andmanufacturing,andbasedon

extensiveresearchaswellasvalidation

interviewsandworkshopswithexperts

intherespectivedrivertopics.Grouping

thedriversaccordingtotheirimpact(on

they-axis)anddegreeofuncertainty(on

thex-axis)highlightsthezoneofhighest

interestforscenariobuilding:Distinctand

meaningfulscenariosalwaysunfoldfrom

driverswherehighimpactandhighuncer-

taintycoincide(figure3).Finally,applying

theDeloitteCenterfortheLongView's

provenmethodshelpedformulatefour

quintessentialscenarios:

15

High

Medium

DegreeofImpact

Low

ConnectednessofCars

LightweightTechnology

Predominant

PowertrainTech

AlternativePowertrains

PowerCharging

MarketControlbyNewPlayers

Artificial

Intelligence

SourceofAuto-mot.Innovation

Autonomous

Driving

Re-manufacturingProcesses

UpdatableCar

Environmental

Regulations

CompetitionforTalent

Degreeof

Customization

Man-machineDialogue

3DPrinting

Powerof

Suppliers

PlaceofProduction

RoleofSuppliers

GrowthinAsianMarkets

ConsumerPower

E-mobility

BusinessModels

AvailabilityofBatteries

FutureStandingofDriving

CapabilityofCars

AutonomousEnvironmentalWhite-LabelCarsTrustinOEMs

SafetyAwareness

ProductionNetworksConcern

ProtectionofPersonalInfo

FreedomofTrade

Pollutant-free

SalesChannels

Urbanization

StrengthofIPLaws

Production

Artificial/OrganicComponents

Lifecycle

FormofOwnership

EnergyStorageLocation

Data

Monetization

Telecommuni-cationGrid

AdaptiveCars

End-to-End

MobilityServices

PolluterPays

Principle

InfrastructureSpending

CostPressureonSuppliers

RideSharing

CorporateValuations

OilPrice

EnergyStorage

Pay-per-useModels

ShareholderInterest

PublicTransport

CostofCapitalInfrastructure

StringencyofCyberSecurityStandards

DataStorage

FinancingOptions

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

Fig.3–60+driversthatwillshapethefutureautomotivevaluechainclusteredby

impactontheupstreamvaluechainanduncertainty

Zoneofinterest

VehicleStructure

Buyingvs.Leasing

Importanceof

MaterialWealth

Low

Medium

DegreeofUncertainty

High

16

CapabilitiesofCars

2+

OEMs

dominatetheauto-motive

world

Suppliersand

outsiderssettherules

BalanceofPower

Fig.4–Fourscenariosfor2025

Tothefull

extent

Hardware

platformprovider

Dataandmobilitymanager

BalanceofPower

Thefallen

giant

Belowtechnological

possibilities

Stagnant

carmaker

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

2+

Scenario4–

Hardwareplatformprovider

ITplayershavedisruptedtheautomotive

valuechain.OEMsarenowprimarilythe

suppliersofwhite-labelcarstotheinternet

giants.Inthisworld,OEMscanplaya

relevantroleonlyiftheyprovideasuperior

platformfor‘infotainment’andmobilityser-

vicesand/orretainastrongbrandimage.

SinceOEMsarenotabletofullycashinthe

revenuepotential,themarginpervehicle

decreases.

Scenario3–

Thefallengiant

Thecarisameremeansoftransportation

andbrandattractivenesshasdiminished.

Thetechnologyhypehascooleddown,

whichhasputanendtotheriseofthe

high-techcar.Asmobilityhasbecomea

commodity,profitmarginshavedecreased

andOEMsarefocusingonimproving

processesandcostefficiency.Industry

outsiderssuchasUberhaveenteredthe

marketandareforgingexclusivealliances

withsupplierstoprovideaffordablemass

mobility.Sinceprivatecarownershiphas

decreased,fleetmanagementhasbecome

ofsignificantimportanceforOEMs.New

talentishardtocomeby,duetothelossin

theattractivenessofOEMs.

Scenario1–

Dataandmobilitymanager

Inthisworld,connectivityhasbecomea

differentiator.E-mobility(includingbattery

aswellasplug-inhybridelectricvehicles,

rangeextendersandfuelcell),autonomous

driving,andintegratedmobilityarea

commonrealityforthebroadpublic.OEMs

areabletosetthestandardsandarethe

dominantplayersintheautomotiveindus-

try,offeringarichportfolioofproductsand

services.Innovativeautomotiveoutsiders

havetoplayaccordingtotherulessetby

OEMs.Inparticular,premiumbrandsand

statusplayadecisiveroleinconsumers’

buyingbehavior.OEMsofferanattractive

workplacefortalent.

Scenario2–

Stagnantcarmaker

MassivelobbyingbyOEMshasprevented

potentialnewhigh-techplayersfromen-

teringthemarket.However,thisdefensive

strategyhasalsosloweddowntechnical

development,withtheresultthatmany

potentialinnovationshavenotbeenrolled

outtothemarket,withregulations,for

example,limitingthedeploymentoftech-

nology.Dramaticaccidentswithimmature

autonomouscarshavealsoresultedina

lossofconsumeracceptance.

Source:Deloitte–"TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain–2025andbeyond"17

18

Specificscenarioimplicationsforthesupplierindustry

Basedonthesebroadscenarionarratives,theguidingquestionforthefollowing

chaptersis:Howwillthescenarios

impactautomotivesuppliermarkets?

Inthecourseofmultipleinterviewsand

workshopswithautomotiveexpertsandresearchers,thefollowingsupplier-specificconsiderationswereaddedtoeachscenar-iofortheautomotivevaluechainin2025:

Inthefirstscenario,the“Dataandmobilitymanager”,premiumsuppliersdominate

throughallianceswithOEMsandtheirsoft-waresolutions.TheywilltakeoverahighernumberofOEMtasks,e.g.dataanalysistoimproveproductsandfeatures.Further-more,throughmassiveinvestments,sup-pliershelpOEMstosetstandardsforcon-nectedserviceswhileensuringpremiumquality,whichplaysadecisiveroleinthisscenario.OEMsdemandfurtherservicesbasedonplatformsolutionsprovidedbysuppliers.ResearchanddevelopmentaswellasinnovationactivitiesarestilldrivenbyrulessetbytheOEMs.

Inthesecondscenario,the“Stagnant

carmaker”,theautomotivevaluechain

remainsmostlyunchangedandsupplierskeeptheirtraditionalrole.Thehype

aroundconnectedandautonomousdrivetechnologiesisgoneandsuppliersfocus

onwhattheyweregoodat,i.e.incrementalinnovationalongtoday’svehiclefeatures.Astoday,suppliersarechallengedbyOEMstoprovidehighqualityatcompetitivepric-es.E-MobilityemergesasanindependentbusinessmodelamongOEMs,whichleadstoahighspendinR&Dforthissector

amongsuppliers.Inanycase,supplierswhofocusoninnovationindrivetraintechnologiesarethe“winners”intheircompetitivefields.

Howwillthesevaluechainscenarios

impacttoday's

automotivesuppliers?

Inthethirdscenario,“Thefallengiant”,

industryoutsiderslikeUberenterthe

marketandforgeexclusiveallianceswith

supplierstoprovideaffordablemass

mobility.Supplierssupportmassmobility

byexpandingtheirserviceportfolio,e.g.

byintroducingusage-basedpricing

schemesforcertaincomponents.Thisalso

appliestotraditionalOEMcustomers,who

increasinglyfocusonfleetmanagement

operationsandaskforhighlydurablebut

affordablespareparts.

Inthefourthscenario,the“Hardwareplat-

formprovider”,supplierssupportandform

allianceswithtechplayersdesigningnew

automotiveservices/platformsalongside

theclassicpartssupplyforOEMs.They

becomeprovidersofinnovativesoftware

solutions.Thecoordinationeffortbetween

suppliersandthirdpartyserviceproviders

increasesdrastically(e.g.forGoogletraffic

controlsystems).Duetoevenstronger

interlinkageofprovidedsoftwarefunction-

alities,data,andconventionalhardware,

suppliersgainsignificantbargainingpower.

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

19

CapabilitiesofCars

2+

BalanceofPower

BalanceofPower

Fig.5–Fourscenariosfortheautomotivevaluechainin2025–adjustedwithsupplierfocus

Tothefullextent

Scenario4–

Hardwareplatformprovider

Largetechgiantsmanageallservices

aroundthemobilityexperience.OEMsarepushedouttobecomemerehardware

manufacturers.Incumbentsuppliershavetheopportunitytoformdevelopment

allianceswiththenewmarketplayers(e.g.fromthegroupoftechgiants),leapfroggingOEMsintermsofproductandservice

innovation.

Scenario1–

Dataandmobilitymanager

OEMsdominatetheautomotivevaluechainthroughgatedplatformssupportedby

situationalallianceswithtechplayers.

Winningsuppliersinfluencethesestan-

dards(esp.alternativedrivetrainsand

connected&autonomousdrive)viacloseco-developmentwithOEMs.Marketentryoflargetechnologyplayersasnewautomo-tivesuppliersislimited.

Suppliersand

outsidersset

therules

OEMsdominate

theautomotive

world

Scenario2–

Stagnantcarmaker

OEMskeeptheirdominantroleinthevaluechain,whileonlyincrementalinnovation

isacceptedinthemarkets.Supplierrolesremainlargelyunchangedcomparedtoto-day.Afocusoncomponentsforalternativedrivetrainsprovidesgrowthpotential.

Scenario3–

Thefallengiant

Theentranceofnewmobilityplayers

forcesOEMsintostrongdisplacement

competition.Selectedsuppliersforgeex-

clusiveallianceswithnewmobilityplayers

toprovidemassmobilitybasedonlarge

fleets.Providingdurableandaffordable

(spare)partsiskey.

Belowtechnological

possibilities

20

TheDeloitteAutomotive

ValueChainIndustryModel

Comingfromtheoverallscenarionar-

ratives,wegoonestepfurtherand

useexpertassessmentsandproject

experiencetoexplorewhatspecific

materialcostimplicationsmightresult

fromthesetrendsandhowthemar-

ketvolumefortheindividualvehicle

componentswilldevelopuntil2025.

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

21

22

Electronics

Wheels&tiresExhaustsystem

Electric

drivetrain

Transmission

Modellingapproach

Westartedbybreakingdownaconven-

tionalvehicleintoitscomponentsalong19clusters.Basedonprojectexperienceandexpertinterviews,wesetupanaverage

materialcostbaselinefor2016of€16kpervehicle(figure6).Thisbaselineincludesma-terialcostsforpurehardwarecomponentsaswellasembeddedsoftwaresystems.

Asafirststep,theDeloitteAVCIndustry

Modeltakestheexpectedmaterialcost

developmentforanaveragevehicleintoac-

count:Whatisthematerialcostbaselineas

pertodayforanaveragemid-sizedvehicle

equippedwithaninternalcombustionen-

gineandlimiteddriverassistancefeatures

(level1accordingtotheclassificationof

autonomousdrivingfeatures)[step1]?

Fig.6–BreakdownofvehiclecomponentclustersasabasisfortheDeloitteAVCIndustryModel

ClimateControl

Infotainment&communications

Interior

Advanceddriver

assistancesystems&sensors

Internal

combustion

engine

Frame

Steering

Brakes

Fuelsystem

Body

Seats

Axles

battery/fuelcell

Highvoltage

Suspension

TheFutureoftheAutomotiveValueChain|Supplierindustryoutlook2025

x

4

5

Severalsourceshelpedustomodelthe

materialcostdevelopmentofthisbaselinecartowardstheyear2025,fromextensiveresearchintocomponent-specifictechnol-ogytrendstodiscussionswithindustry

stakeholders.Theguidingquestionsbe-

hindthisassessmentwere:Howwilltech-nologytrendsand/orsubstitutioneffectsofcertainmaterialsandpartsinfluencethevalueoftherespectivecomponentsinthecar(notconsideringeffectsfromgeneralinflation)[step2]?

Asanextstep,wedistinguisheddifferentconfigurationfactorsregardingmaterial

costimpactsfordifferenttypesofdrive-

trains,vehiclesegmentsandlevelsof

autonomousdriving.Weconsideredadif-ferentiationbetweenICE,PHEV,REX,BEV,andFC1intermsofdrivetrainsandadaptedthematerialcostsrelativetothe2025

baselinecar(asmentionedabove),e.g.

thecostforelectronicsinavehiclewitharangeextendercanbearound1.6xhigherthaninavehiclewithanICE.Thesamelogicwasappliedtothevehiclesegmentconfig-urationfactor(micro,compact,medium,

premium,luxury)aswellas“autonomousdrivelevel”(1–5).Inconclusion,eachvehicleconfigurationhasitsindividualmaterial

costcalculation[step3].

Asinourpreviousissueonthefutureof

theautomotivevaluechain,weutilized

ourDeloitteE-MobilityModeltoforecastgeneralvehiclesalesuntil2025.Itprovidesascenario-specificforecastdistinguishingannualsalesofalternativedrivetrains

andvehiclesegmentsforChina,NAFTA,

andGermany.Additionally,weincluded

assumptionsregardingnegativesales

impactsfromascenario-specificincreaseinthesharingeconomy,i.e.carandride

sharing[step4].Themultiplicationofthesevehiclesalesforecastswiththeabove

describedmaterialcostdevelopments

[steps1–3]providesafirstestimationoflikelyoverallmarketvolumedevelopmentsforeachofthe19componentclusters

between2016and2025.

Fig.7–ModellingapproachfortheDeloitteAutomotiveValueChainIndustrymodel

StepsVehiclesplitinto19componentclusters

1

2

3

PHEV

REX

BEV

FCEV

Drivetrain

€

Materialcostbaseline2016(averagevehicle)

x

%

Materialcostdevelopment(technologytrends)

=

€

Materialcostbaseline2025(averagevehicle)

x

€

Vehicleconfigurationfactors

ICE

Compact

Medium

Premium

Luxury

Micro

1

2

3

4

5

Vehiclesegment

Autonomous

drivelevel

%

Salesvolumeforecast2025

=

€

Materialcostmarketvolumes2016&2025

x

%

Scenario-specificfactors

=

€

Materialcostmarketvolumes:

percomponentcluster,region,drivetrain,vehiclesegment,levelofADfeatures,andscenario

Configurationofbaselinevehicle

Usingalastsetofassumptions,wedistin-

guishedmarketvolumedevelopmentsfor

thefourscenarios,ashighlightedinchapter

II.Thekeyquestionis:

Howdoesthevaryingdegreetowhich

availabletechnologicalcapabilitiesare

utilizedincarschangethematerialcost

outlook?Thesescenariofactorsconsider,

forexample,thattherewillbeahigherde-

mandforpowersupplydueto“Electronics”

and“Infotainment”inthescenario“Data

andMobilityManager”,ashighlyconnected

vehiclesarethenormhere[step5].As

anoverview,thegeneralapproachtothe

industrymodelisvisualizedinfigure7.

1ICE:InternalCombus