牛津经济研究院-啤酒在低收入国家的经济贡献（英）-2024.1

THE

ECONOMICCONTRIBUTIONOF

BEERINLOWE

R

INCOMECOUNTRIESJANUARY

2024The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountries2The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountriesTABLE

OF

CONTENTSExecutive

summary4681.

Introduction2.

The

beersector’seconomic

footprint3.

Beerconsumption14143.1

Beerconsumption

patterns3.2

Beerconsumption

inthecontext

ofthebroaderalcohol

industry164.

The

beersector’spotential

to

grow

inlowerincome

countries18184.1

Modellingapproach4.2

Beersector’s

potential

to

contribute

more

tolower

income

economies185.

Factors

influencingbeerconsumption

inlowerincome

countries2222225.1

Factors

influencingalcohol

consumption5.2

Factors

influencingbeerconsumption6.

Conclusions

andfuture

research

recommendations26Appendix2828286.1

Beer’sconsumption

over

time6.2

Modellingframework3The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountriesEXECUTIVE

SUMMARYIn2022,

we

publisheda

study

oftheglobalbeersector’seconomic

footprint

across

70

countries,

conducted

onbehalfoftheWorldwide

Brewing

Alliance

using2019

data.

Onemainfindingofourprevious

study

isthat

thebeersector’seconomic

significance

issubstantially

larger

across

lowerincome

economies.$34billionThe

beer

sector’scontribution

to

GDP

inlower

income

countries.The

average

contributionto

GDP

was

1.6%

acrosslower

income

countries

in

2019,compared

to

0.9%

across

highincome

countries.Inthisreport,we

investigatefurthertheimportanceofthebeersectorinlower

incomeeconomies.We

beginby

examiningwhythebeersector’seconomicsignificanceisgreaterinlowerincomecountries,andthenanalysehow

beerconsumptionvariesacrosscountries.We

alsoexplorehow

theseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtheriftheshareofbeerconsumptionrose,whilekeepingoverall

alcoholicbeverage

consumptionlevel

constant.We

concludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.The

beersector

already

supportslarger

shares

ofeconomicvalue

inlower

income

economies.

In2019,thebeersector’scontributionto

GDPaveraged

1.6%acrosslower

incomecountries,almostdoubleitscontributionto

GDPinhighincomecountries(anaverage

of0.9%ofnationalGDP).The

beersectorinlower

incomecountriesalsosupportedmorejobsinbothabsoluteandrelativeterms(anaverage

of1.4%ofnationalemploymentversus1.1%

inhighincomecountries),whichcouldbeexplainedby

thelower

levels

oflabourproductivityandamoreprominentroleofagricultureinthesecountries.The

beersectorinthesecountriesisalsocharacterisedby

alessprominentroleofthedownstreamsegment(accountingforonly39%ofthesector’sgrossvalueaddedcontribution,comparedto

62%inhighincomecountries)andalower

levelofinternationalisation(nearlyallthebeersoldinlower

incomecountriesisproduceddomestically,comparedto

highincomecountrieswhereanaverage

12%ofsalesby

downstreambusinessesisimportedfromoverseas).6.7millionJobs

supported

by

the

beersector

in

lower

income

countries.Beerconsumption

tends

to

belower

inlower

income

countriescompared

to

therest

oftheworld.

The

average

personinlowerincome

countries

consumes

onlyonethird

ofthebeerconsumedby

theircounterparts

inhighincome

countries.

Despite

lowerprices

and

lower

levels

of

consumption,consumersin

lower

incomecountries

allocate

a

larger

share

oftheirdisposableincome

to

beercompared

to

individualsacross

othercountry

income

groups.4The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountriesThisindicatesbeeriscomparativelylessaffordableinlowerincomecountries.Furthermore,we

findthatdemandforbeerincreasesdisproportionallyatlow

incomelevels

(i.e.,amonglower

incomecountries),butismuchlessincomesensitiveascountriesbecomericher.

Thissuggeststhatbeerbehavesasa“luxurygood”inlower

incomeeconomies,asopposedto

a“normalgood”inhighincomecountries.Whilethesegeneralobservationsare

madebasedonconsumptionpatterns,weare

notableto

draw

anyconclusionsaboutthesignificanceorcausalityoftherelationshipbetweendisposableincomeandbeerconsumption.$67Average

per

capitaexpenditure

on

beerin

lower

incomecountries,

significantlylower

than

the

$403

spentin

high

income

countries.Thebeersectorcouldmakeeven

largereconomiccontributionsinlower

incomecountriesifbeerwas

alargershareoftotalalcoholconsumption.We

estimatethattotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionby

thebeersectorcouldriseto

anaverage

of2.2%ofGDPacrosslower

incomeeconomies.The

sector’spotentialto

grow

isfoundto

begreatestinIndia,Ethiopia,andGhana.Thereareseveral

constraintsto

thebeersector’spotentialto

makeeven

largereconomiccontributionsinlower

incomecountries.Whenaccountingforalcoholcontentandvolume,beerisrelativelymoreexpensivethanspiritsacrosscountriesofallincomegroups,withalargerdifferencefoundamonglowerincomecountries.Lookingatexcise

dutiesby

ethanolcontent,beerisalsotaxedmorethanspiritsacrosslower

incomecountries.Beyond

prices,thereare

otherfactorsto

considerthatcaninfluencepeople’sdecisionsto

consumebeer,

includingtastesandculturaldifferences.Incertaincountries,spirits,wine,andotheralcoholicbeverages

are

preferredandmorepopularthanbeer.+$37billionThe

potentialincrease

incontributions

toGDP

by

the

beersector

in

lower

income

countriesif

beer

consumption

levels

rose

toour

counterfactual

scenario.Thereishowever

muchleftto

exploreinrelationto

thistopic.Somepossibleextensionsto

thisstudycouldinvolvelookingattheoverall

macroeconomicimpactofincreasedbeerconsumptionontheeconomy;assessingtaxframeworksforalcohol;investigatingtheimpactofunrecordedalcoholconsumption;exploringcausalrelationshipbetweenconsumptionpatternsandkey

driversusingadetailedeconometricmodel.5The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountries1.

INTRODUCTIONThe

beersector

bringsOurstudy

demonstrated

howimportantthebeersectoristo

economies

around

theglobe.

The

study

revealedthat,

in2019,

thebeersectorsupported

anestimated$555billioningross

valueaddedcontributions

to

globalGDPandaround

23millionjobs.Notably,

we

found

thattogether

a

widerange

oforganisations

whichareresponsible

for

producing,marketing,

distributing,andsellingbeerto

millionsofconsumers

across

theglobe.

Incarryingouttheseactivities,businesses

createandstimulate

significanteconomic

contributions

to

the

theglobalbeersector’sglobaleconomy.contribution

isespeciallyimportantto

lower

incomecountries.In2022,we

publishedastudyoftheglobalbeersector’seconomicfootprintacross70Inthisreport,togetherwithcountries,conductedonbehalf

ABInBev,

we

investigateoftheWorldwideBrewing

furthertheroleofthebeerAlliance.Inthisfirst-of-its-kind

sectorforlower

incomestudy,

whichtookaglobalperspectiveto

estimatethebeer’seconomicfootprintusing2019data,we

quantifiedthebeersector’seconomiccontributionsupportedbybrewingandsellingbeer(thesector’sdirectimpact),itsspendingwithsuppliersofgoodsandservices(itsindirectimpact),andthewage-fundedspendingintheconsumereconomybyemployeesofthebeersectoritselfanditssupplychains(itsinducedimpact).economies.We

startbyexaminingwhythebeersector’seconomicsignificanceishigherinlower

incomecountries,andthenanalysehow

consumptiontrendsvaryacrosscountries.Finally,

weexplorehow

theseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtherifbeer’sshareoftotalalcoholicbeverage

consumptionincreased.We

concludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.6The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountries7The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountries2.

THE

BEER

SECTOR’SECONOMIC

FOOTPRINTDiggingfurtherintotheresults

inhighincomecountries—ofourprevious

study,

this

where,onaverage,

thesectorsectionofthereportdescribes

supported0.9%ofnationalimpactasshare

ofnationalGDPinCambodia(4.3%),where

percapitabeerconsumption

was

alsothehighest.

The

beerindustrystimulated

thelowest

economichowthebeersector’sGDP.

However,

inabsoluteterms,beer’stotalgrossvalueaddedcontributioninlowerincomecountriesamountedto

impactasshare

ofnational$34billion—onlya10thofthe$337billionsupportedinhigheconomiccontributionsvaryacrossincomegroupsandthekey

driversbehindthesedifferences.1

BasedontheWorld

Bank’sdefinitionofGDPinIndonesia(0.20%),SriLanka

(0.29%),

andIndia(0.33%).

Unsurprisingly,

amonglower

income

economies,incomegroups,we

categorised

incomeeconomies.theanalysedcountriesintothefollowinggroups:highincome,uppermiddleincome,andlowerincome.2Within

thelower

income

group,

thesethree

countries

recordedthebeersector

stimulatedthelowest

percapitabeerconsumption

in2019.thelargest

gross

value

addedThe

beersector—comprisingbothbrewers

andtheFig.

1:

Beer

sector’s

total

gross

value

added

contributions

bycountry

income

group

in

2019downstream

value

chain,whichincludesbeerdistributors,retailers,

andthehospitalityindustry—supports

substantialeconomic

benefitsacross

theglobe.

In2019,

we

estimatethat

brewers’

andbeer’sGVA,

$billion,2019pricesPercentageofnationalGDPTotalGVAimpactPercentoftheeconomy4002.0%3371.6%downstream

value

chainsupported

$1inevery

$131ofglobalGDPandoneinevery110jobsintheglobaleconomy.33001.5%1.3%185Onemainfindingofourpreviousstudywas

thatthebeersector’seconomicsignificancewas

substantiallylargeracrosslower

incomeeconomies.20010000.9%1.0%The

beersector’stotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionasashareofnationalGDPaveraged

1.6%acrosslowerincomecountriesin2019.4Inthesecountries,thebeersector’stotalimpactwasnearlytwiceasimportantas0.5%340.0%HighincomeUppermiddleincomeLowerincomeSource:OxfordEconomics1OxfordEconomics,2022,Global

footprint

of

the

beer

sector.World

bank,2021,New

World

Bank

country

classifications

by

income

level:

2021-2022,accessedNovember2023.TheWorld

Bank2assignstheworld’seconomyto

fourincomegroups:low,

lower-middle,upper-middle,andhigh-incomecountries.Inthisstudy,

wecombinecountriescategorisedaslowandlower-middleincomeeconomiesaslowerincome.3Inthiscontext,globaleconomyrefersto

theeconomyofthe70

countriesanalysedinthisstudy,

whichin2019accountedfor86%ofglobalGDP.Consistentwiththeoriginal2022study,thisisanunweighted

average,

ratherthana

weightedone.The

reason

we

employed4unweighted

averagesisthatwhenusinga

weighted

averagetheresults

foroneortwo

largeeconomiescansubstantiallyaltertheoverall

results,hidingthetruepictureseeninmostofthecountries.For

example,thelowerincomegroupingincludesbothIndiaandIndonesia–

largeeconomieswithlow

levelsofbeerconsumptionduetoculturalfactors.

Low

levelsofconsumptionmeanbeer’scontributiontotheseeconomiesissmall,andtheireconomicsizecanskewtheweighted

averagecontributionforthelowerincomegroupingsignificantly(from

0.6%whenbothareincluded,to1.4%whenthey

arenot).Usinganunweighted

removesthisbiasandhighlightstheexperienceofotherlowerincomecountries,wherebeermakesa

far

largercontributionthaninhighincomeeconomies.8The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountriesThe

results

are

somewhatdifferent

whenwe

lookatjobs,whichare

higherinbothTo

betterunderstandthefeaturesanddriversofthesector’simpact,itisimportantinhighincomeeconomies,wherebusinessesalongthedownstreamvaluechainproportional

andabsolute

levels

to

knowhow

brewers’

andsupported62%oftheoverallinlower

income

countries.

Inbeer’sdownstreamvaluechain

grossvalueaddedimpact.2019,

thebeersector

supported

contributedto

thisimpact.6.7

millionjobsinlower

incomeThisdifferenceislikelycountries,

or50%more

thanthe4.5millionjobssupportedinhighincome

economies.Inrelative

terms,

thesector’simpactwas

alsolarger

inlower

income

countries

thanhighincome

countries,

withanaverage

1.4%and1.1%

ofnational

employment

beingsupported,

respectively.5Across

lower

incomeexplainedby

thefeaturesandcharacteristicsofdownstreamactivitiesacrossdifferentincomegroups.Whilebrewerstendto

behighlyproductiveacrossalleconomies,beer’sdownstreamvaluechainvariessubstantiallyacrosstheglobe.countries,brewers

supportedalargershareofthetotalgrossvalueaddedimpact.Ofthe$34billiongrossvalueaddedcontributionsupportedby

beerinlower

incomeeconomiesin2019,brewersaccountedfor61%.ThisisalmostexactlythereverseDifferences

inproductivitiesacross

income

groups,

andinthecomposition

ofindustriesstimulated

by

thebeersector,contribute

to

explaining

thelarger

jobsimpactsacrosslower

income

countries.Fig.

2:

Beer

sector’s

total

employment

contributions

bycountry

income

group

in

2019Employment(million)Totalemploymentimpact14PercentageofnationalemploymentPercentoftheeconomy1.4%1.3%1.4%The

relativeimportanceofagricultureto

lower

incomecountriesandlower

levels

ofproductivityare

amongthefactorsdrivingtheseresults.Thatis,thebeersectorinlower

incomecountriesismorelabourintensivethaninhighincomecountries.6121.2%1.1%121081.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%Amongst

lower

incomecountries,

thebeersectorsupported

thehighest

totaljobscontribution

asa

shareofnational

employment

inMozambique

(3.7%).

Itwasfollowed

by

Cambodiawith3.3%ofnational

employmentsupported

by

thebeersector.Similarto

gross

value

addedimpacts,thebeersector’slowest

jobcontributions

wereinIndonesia(0.21%),

India(0.26%),

andSriLanka

(0.33%).6.764.5420HighincomeUppermiddleincomeLowerincomeSource:OxfordEconomics56Thisiscalculatedastheaveragecontributionacrosscountriesintheincomegroup.Morelabourintensivemeansthatmoreunitsoflabourarerequiredto

produceoneunitofoutput.9The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountriesDistribution,retail,andbeersectorinlower

incomecountries.Inhighincomecountries,however,

beer’sdownstreamvaluechainaccountedfor73%

ofthetotaljobsimpact.Becausedownstreambusinessestendto

belessproductivethanbrewers,

we

seeamorebalanceddistributionofthejobsimpactacrosslowerincomecountries.Avery

differentpictureisobservedacrosshighincomecountries,wherebusinessesintheprofessionalandbusinessesservicesindustrybenefitthemostfrombeer’ssupplychainactivities,accountingfor20%ofthetotalindirectcontributiontoGDP.

Incontrast,agriculturedidnotfeatureamongthetopfive

beneficiaryindustriesinthesecountries.hospitalitysectorsinhighincomecountriesoftenoffermoremodernservices—forexample,throughhigherpersonalisationanddigitisation—whichtendto

bemorecostly.

Thisisbecauserunningtheseservicesrequireshigherinvestmentsandhigheroperatingcosts,aswellasamorespecialisedandexpensivelabourforce.The

downstreamvaluechainbeingalabour-intensivesectorandaverage

labourwagesbeingrelativelyhigherinhighincomecountriesalsocontributeto

explainingthehighervalueaddedinthesecountriescomparedto

lowerincomeeconomies.Agriculture

isby

far

theindustry

benefittingthemost

from

thebeersectorinlower

income

countries.Oftheindirect

gross

valueaddedsupported

inthesecountries

($13billion),22%was

stimulated

intheagricultural

industry,

followedby

wholesaleandretailSimilarresultsare

observableintheinducedchannelofimpact;although,asto

beexpected,thereare

higherimpactsamongindustriestypicallybelongingto

theconsumereconomy,

suchasrealestateservices.Theseresultsreflecttheunderlyingstructureoftheeconomyandhow

thisdiffersacrossincomegroups.Focusingonemployment,brewers

supported55%ofthetotaljobsimpactby

the(13%),andprofessional

andbusinesses

services

(10%).Fig.

3:

Beer’s

impact

in

lower

income

countries,

by

channel

and

industry

(2019)2.8Agriculture,forestryand

fishing2.31.6Wholesale

and

retail1.21.3Professionaland

business

services0.21.0Transportationandstorage0.50.6Foodproducts,beveragesandtobacco0.5IndirectchannelInducedchannel0.3Real

estate

activities0.80.5Financial

andinsurance

activities0.50.6Utilities0.20.5Miningofenergy

producingproducts0.33.7Others2.601234Grossvalueadded,$billion,2019pricesSource:OxfordEconomics10The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountriesFig.

4:

Beer’s

impact

in

high

income

countries,

by

channel

and

industry

(2019)22Professional

and

business

services917Wholesale

and

retail128.9Real

estate

activities176.7Financial

andinsurance

activities8.62.3Humanhealthandsocialwork11IndirectchannelInducedchannel7.3Transportationandstorage4.17.6Foodproducts,beveragesandtobacco2.74.2Utilities2.74.7Agriculture,

forestry

and

fishing1.932Others28010203040Grossvalueadded,$billion,2019pricesSource:OxfordEconomicsFinally,

we

lookedattheextent

to

bemoreintegratedintheproductivity

anda

moreto

whichthebeersectoranditsupstreamsupplychainsare

integratedintheglobaleconomy,

andwhetherthisvariesacrossincomegroups.globaleconomy.

In2019,onaverage,

brewers

acrosshighincomecountriesexported12%oftheirproductionandbusinessesinthedownstreamprominent

role

ofagriculture,helpingexplain

thehighernumberofjobssupportedby

thebeersector.

Fourth,thedownstream

segmentofactivitiesimported12%oftheir

thebeersector

ismuchlessfinalproducts.

prominent

inlower

incomecountries,

accounting

for

39%

ofThe

beersector

tends

to

bemore

domestically

focused

inlower

income

countries

withmost

ofitsimpactoriginatingfrom

localactivities.Overall,

we

identifyfive

distinct

thesector’s

gross

value

addedfeatures

ofthebeersector

inlower

income

countries.

Thefirst

isthat,

despite

having

ancontribution,

compared

to62%inhighincome

countries.Andfifth,thebeersector

ismuchless

internationalised

inlower

income

countries,

withthedownstream

segmentofthebeersector

importinganaverage

ofonly2.6%offinishedproduct

for

resale,

compared

to12%inhighincome

countries.In

2019,

brewers

in

lower

income

absolute

smallergross

valuecountries

exported,

onaverage,1.4%oftheirproduction,addedimpact,thebeersectorcontributes

a

larger

share

toGDPinlower

income

countries(1.6%)thanhigherincomecountries

(0.9%).

The

second

isthat

thebeersector

supportsmore

jobsindevelopingwiththeremaining

98%ofproduction

leftfor

thelocalmarket.

Meanwhile,

businessesinthedownstream

value

chainimported

onaverage

2.6%offinishedproduct

for

resale.countries

inbothabsolute

(6.7millionjobs)

andrelative

terms(1.4%ofnational

employment).Third,

lower

income

countrieshave

lower

levels

oflabourThe

next

sectionexploresdifferencesinspendingpatternsacrossincomegroupsandhow

thesecanexplainsomeoftheseobservations.Incontrast,brewers

anddownstreambusinessesinhighincomecountriestend11The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountries12The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountries13The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountries3.

BEER

CONSUMPTIONBeerisoneofthemostpopularbeverages

consumedallover

theworld.Inthissectionofthereport,we

lookatbeerconsumptionpatternsacrossthe70

countriesanalysedinourpreviousstudyandfocusonhow

thesevaryacrossandwithindifferentincomegroups.3.1

BEER

CONSUMPTION

PATTERNSBasedonEuromonitordataonbeerconsumptionandpopulationdatafromtheWorld

Bank,we

estimatethat,in2019,percapitaexpenditure

onbeeraveraged

Differences

in

average

spending$67

across

lower

incomeare

partlydriven

by

beerprices,whichtend

to

belower

inlowerincome

countries.

In2019,

beerprices

averaged

$2.70

perlitreinlower

income

countries,versus

the$5.10

perlitre

and$3.40perlitre

inhighincomeanduppermiddleincomecountries

in2019.

This

impliesthat

individualsacross

lowerincome

countries

spent,onconsumptionofbeeraveraged

average,

around

17%and33%64litresacrosstheanalysed70

countries.To

consumethisquantity,

theaverage

personspent$246

onbeereachyear.7ofwhat

theircounterpartsinhighincome

andmiddleincome

countries

spent.countries,

respectively.Amongstlower

incomeLarge

differences

incountries,there

were

largevariationstoo.

For

example,whileBolivia’spercapitaconsumptionin2019washighat

$243,

ontheotherendofthespectrumwe

findIndiaandIndonesia,withanaverage

spendingonbeerat$8and$9,

respectively.However,

whilebeerischeaperinlower

income

countries,

itbynomeansismore

affordable.spendingpatterns

existacross

countries

andincomegroups.

While

theaveragepersoninhighincomeAcross

lower

income

countries,percapitaconsumption

ofbeeraveraged

28litres

peryear

in2019.

This

issignificantlylowerthantheaverage

85litresanduppermiddleincomecountries

spent$403

and$203

to

buyandconsumebeer,

respectively,

percapitaFig.

5:

Per

capita

consumption

of

beer

in

2019,

by

country

income

group$percapita,2019pricesLitrepercapita450904003503002508070605040302085200150100504037320328106700ValueVolumeValueVolumeValueVolumeHighincomeUppermiddleincomeLowerincomeSource:Euromonitor,OxfordEconomics7WorldBank,“WDI

population

ages

15-64”and“WDI

population

ages

over

64”,datadownloadedNovember2023.GiventheWorldBankdoesnotpublishpopulationdataby

legaldrinkingage,we

takepopulationages15+astheclosestproxy.

Euromonitor,2019,“IndustryandEconomicandConsumerData”,datadownloadedNovember2023.14The

economiccontributionofbeerinlower

incomecountriesand73

litres

consumed

byindividualsacross

highincomeanduppermiddleincomecountries,

respectively.affordable

inlower

incomecountries

inpurchasing

powerparity(PPP)terms.9We

alsonote

substantialvariation

withineachgroup.For

example,

countries

withsimilarlevels

ofdisposableincome

suchasFrance

andGermany

show

differentconsumption

patterns,

withtheaverage

Germanconsumingnearlythree

timesasmuchbeerasthetypicalFrenchperson.This

reflects

differenttastes,

asdemonstrated

bywineconsumption

percapitabeing1.5timeshigherinFrancethaninGermany.Examining

ingreater

detailtherelationship

betweendisposableincome

andbeerconsumption,

we

observeageneral

trend

ofincreasingbeervolume

consumptionasdisposableincome

levelsincrease.

The

increaseinbeerconsumptiontapersoffaswereachtherichestcountriessuchastheUS,suggestingthepresenceofanon-Despite

having

bothlower

unitprices

andlower

consumptionvolumes,

peopleacross

lowerincome

countries

allocateda

larger

portionoftheirdisposableincome

to

beerconsumption

thanindividualsacross

highanduppermiddleincome

countries.

In2019,

theshare

ofhouseholddisposableincome

spentonbeeraveraged

3.4%across

countries

linearrelationshipbetweenFocusingonlower

incomecountries,percapitaconsumptionofbeeracrossIndiaandIndonesiaamountedto

2.6litresand1.3litres,respectively,

in2019.Incontrast,eachpersoninCambodiaconsumedaround92

litresofbeer,

whichisinthelower

income

group,compared

to

1.6%and2.7%

inhighincome

anduppermiddledisposableincomeandbeerconsumption.Whilethesegeneralobservationscanbeincome

countries,

respectively.8

madebasedonconsumptionThis

meansthat

theshare

ofhouseholddisposableincomespentonbeerinlower

incomecountries

was

more

thantwiceaslarge

asthat

ofhighincomecountries.

This

suggests

thatbeeriscomparatively

lesspatterns,we

are

notabletodraw

anyconclusionsaboutthesignificanceorcausalityoftherelationshipbe