氢：炒作、希望还是努力

Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?Grattan

Institute

SupportFounding

members

(2009)Grattan

Institute

Report

No.

2023-13,

December

2023Endowment

SupportersThe

Myer

FoundationThis

report

was

written

by

Tony

Wood,

Alison

Reeve,

and

RichardYan.

Tarun

Chowdhary,

Bronwyn

See,

and

Christina

Grantcontributed

early

research.National

Australia

BankScanlon

FoundationWe

would

like

to

thank

the

members

of

Grattan

Institute’s

Energy

andClimate

Change

Program

Reference

Group

for

their

helpfulcomments,

as

well

as

numerous

government

and

industryparticipants

and

officials

for

their

input.Susan

McKinnon

FoundationAffiliate

PartnersOrigin

Energy

FoundationScanlon

FoundationThe

opinions

in

this

report

are

those

of

the

authors

and

do

notnecessarily

represent

the

views

of

Grattan

Institute’s

foundingmembers,

affiliates,

individual

board

members,

reference

groupmembers,

or

reviewers.

The

authors

are

responsible

for

any

errors

oromissions.Susan

McKinnon

FoundationThird

Link

Growth

FundSenior

AffiliatesCuffe

Family

FoundationMedibank

PrivateTrawalla

FoundationWesfarmersGrattan

Institute

is

an

independent

think

tank

focused

on

Australianpublic

policy.

Our

work

is

independent,

practical,

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rigorous.

Weaim

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thebroader

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First

Nations

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work,

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Consulting

GroupMaddocksMcKinsey

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CompanyPEXAThis

report

may

be

cited

as:

Wood,

T.,

Reeve,

A.,

and

Yan,

R.

(2023).

Hydrogen:hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?.

Grattan

Institute.UrbisISBN:

978-0-6457978-5-5WestpacAll

material

published

or

otherwise

created

by

Grattan

Institute

is

licensed

under

aCreative

Commons

Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike

3.0

Unported

License.Grattan

Institute

20232Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?OverviewHydrogen

can

help

meet

Australia’s

emissions

reduction

targets

andunderpin

economic

growth

opportunities.

But

to

date,

governmentshave

seemed

more

concerned

with

hyping

Australia’s

hydrogenprospects

and

hoping

for

the

best,

rather

than

doing

the

hard

workto

establish

integrated

industry

policy

for

proportionate,

targeted,

andtimely

support.emissions.

But

under

the

Safeguard’s

current

settings,

this

price

isn’tlikely

to

be

high

enough

to

close

the

cost

gap

before

2040.Third

is

support

for

‘green’

versions

of

these

commodities.

Thebest

support

would

be

an

industry

policy

that

evolves

from

thefederal

government’s

Hydrogen

Headstart

program

and

usescontracts-for-difference

–

contracts

designed

to

support

investment

byunderwriting

part

of

the

additional

cost

of

production

–

to

help

industrygrow.The

best

way

to

seize

the

hydrogen

opportunity

is

to

make

strategicchoices

about

its

industrial

applications

that

can

leverage

Australia’scomparative

advantage

in

renewable

energy

resources

and

minerals,and

build

on

existing

export

industries.This

program

should

be

broadened

to

form

part

of

a

comprehensiveAustralian

green

industry

policy.

It

should

also

support

greencommodity

production

using

technology

beyond

hydrogen.The

most

promising

uses

of

hydrogen

are

in

the

production

ofammonia,

alumina,

and

iron.

These

applications

could

use

hydrogenefficiently

and

cost-effectively

at

a

scale

that

could

support

a

viable,long-term

hydrogen

industry

that

won’t

require

subsidies.The

cost

to

the

government

would

probably

be

between

$600

millionand

$2

billion

per

year.

The

prize

would

be

reduced

emissions

fromdomestic

production

of

green

ammonia,

alumina,

and

iron,

and

exportindustries

with

a

robust

future

for

all

three

commodities.But

in

each

of

these

cases,

hydrogen

still

faces

a

‘green

premium’

–

thegap

between

the

cost

of

using

hydrogen

for

zero-emissions

production,and

the

cost

of

conventional

production.Other

uses

of

hydrogen,

where

the

opportunities

are

less

certain,

tendto

have

complex

supply

chain

logistics

or

face

competing

technologies,or

both.

These

uses

should

be

supported

through

policies

that

removebarriers

to

both

hydrogen

and

competitor

technologies.Three

things

can

close

that

gap.

First

is

cheaper

electricity.

Hydrogencosts

are

driven

by

electricity

costs,

and

each

hydrogen

producerwill

need

to

understand

its

specific

electricity

supply

chain,

includingpotential

links

to

development

of

Australia’s

renewable

electricitytransmission

grid.It’s

time

to

get

serious

about

hydrogen.

The

reforms

recommendedin

this

report

would

give

Australia

the

best

chance

to

build

a

viablehydrogen

industry

that

leverages

our

comparative

advantages,

isproportionate

to

our

fiscal

capacity,

and

won’t

lead

to

inefficientsubsidies

and

trade

distortions.Second

is

higher

carbon

prices.

Heavy

industry

is

covered

by

theSafeguard

Mechanism,

which

imposes

a

carbon

price

to

drive

downGrattan

Institute

20233Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?RecommendationsBe

strategic

about

the

hydrogen

opportunityUnblock

construction

constraintsSet

a

clear

objective

to

develop

a

hydrogen

industry

capable

ofsupplying

reliable

low-cost

hydrogen

for

the

Australian

industrieswhere

it

would

add

greatest

economic

value.State

governments

should

co-ordinate

and

sequence

majorconstruction

projects

to

avoid

labour,

material,

and

equipmentconstraints.∙∙Use

carbon

pricing

appropriatelyFocus

first

on

producing

green

ammonia,

green

alumina,

andgreen

iron

as

the

most

promising

hydrogen

uses.∙The

2026-27

review

of

the

Safeguard

Mechanism

should

considerhow

steeper

baseline

declines,

higher

price

caps,

and

a

lowerthreshold

could

reduce

green

premiums.∙Use

neutral

contracts-for-difference

to

close

the

green

premium

gapThe

Carbon

Leakage

Review

should

consider

the

role

a

CarbonBorder

Adjustment

Mechanism

(CBAM)

could

play

in

developingviable

green

commodity

production.∙Transform

the

Hydrogen

Headstart

program

into

a

contract-for-∙difference

program,

to

support

the

growth

of

green

commodityproduction

in

Australia.

Conduct

reverse

auctions

every

year

for10

years.Remove

barriers

to

hydrogen

use

in

other

sectorsUse

sector-wide

policy

to

encourage

decarbonisation

of

industrialheat,

sustainable

aviation

fuel,

methanol,

back-up

electricitygeneration,

and

long-distance

road

freight.∙Deliver

cheap,

green,

reliable

electricityEmbed

green

hydrogen

production

and

use

more

fully

inelectricity-system

planning,

including

the

role

of

hydrogen

as

fuelfor

back-up

power

in

the

electricity

grid.∙Rule

out

further

government

investment

in

uses

that

appear

less

likelyto

prove

viableDo

not

invest

further

in

hydrogen

for

homes

and

commercialbuildings,

light

vehicles,

and

oil

refining.∙Continue

to

reduce

the

cost

of

renewable

electricity

in

Australia,through

new

renewable

energy

generation,

storage,

andtransmission.∙Grattan

Institute

20234Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?Table

of

contentsOverview

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

3Recommendations

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

41

Why

hydrogen

matters

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

62

Hydrogen

needs

policy

support

to

succeed

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

103

Assessing

the

opportunities

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

154

Start

with

ammonia,

alumina,

and

iron

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

215

What

governments

should

do

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

336

Other

potential

uses

of

hydrogen

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

46A

Uses

of

hydrogen

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

54B

Scenario

assumptions

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

59Grattan

Institute

20235Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?1Why

hydrogen

mattersHydrogen

is

a

molecule

that

can

help

the

world

to

decarbonise.

It

isa

light-weight,

and

energy-dense

(by

weight)

molecule

that

can

beproduced

and

burned

with

zero

emissions.

Like

traditional

fuels,

it

canbe

stored

and

transported

for

use

at

a

different

time

and

location.

Itis

also

an

irreplaceable

component

of

important

chemicals,

includingnitrogen

fertilisers

that

help

feed

the

world.Often,

this

means

that

decarbonising

through

electrification

is

cheaperthan

using

hydrogen,

for

several

reasons:Hydrogen-based

processes

often

involve

multiple

energy∙conversion

steps

along

the

chain.

Energy

losses

at

conversionmean

that

hydrogen-based

processes

will

be

less

efficient

andhence

more

costly.These

advantages

must

be

set

against

the

current

high

cost

ofhydrogen

production

and

supply.

Hydrogen

should

be

used

where

itmakes

the

most

sense

technically

and

economically.

Those

uses

arelikely

to

be

fewer

than

had

been

hoped.Green

hydrogen

production

requires

renewable

electricity

asan

input.

In

many

cases,

it

may

make

more

sense

to

use

therenewable

electricity

directly,

given

energy

conversion

penalties.∙Electricity

can

take

advantage

of

significant

existing

infrastructure∙Where

hydrogen

will

play

a

role

in

global

decarbonisation,

it

is

likelyAustralian

hydrogen

will

play

an

outsized

role.

Australia

is

endowedwith

a

significant,

but

untapped,

clean-energy

comparative

advantage

–that

is,

we

have

a

larger

endowment

of

renewable

energy

resources

butsmaller

domestic

demand

than

many

other

countries.

Our

significantmineral

reserves

and

proximity

to

large

Asian

markets

are

alsoimportant

factors.

In

a

future

decarbonised

world

economy,

someenergy-intensive

processes

could

shift

to

Australia,

and

hydrogen

willbe

key

to

some

of

these

opportunities.in

the

form

of

the

grid,

which

can

be

made

bigger

to

meetfuture

demands.

Hydrogen

often

requires

an

entirely

new

andspecialisedinfrastructure.∙

Renewable

electricity

technologies

have

become

cheaper

throughresearch,

development,

and

deployment,

whereas

low-emissionshydrogen

production

technologies

have

barely

started

on

thisjourney.Given

these

realities,

the

best

decarbonisation

decision

will

usually

be‘electrify

everything

we

can

and

use

hydrogen

where

we

can’t’.The

initial

hype

around

hydrogen

is

settling

into

realism.

SinceAustralia’s

first

National

Hydrogen

Strategy

was

published

in2019,

understanding

of

the

role

that

hydrogen

is

likely

to

play

indecarbonisation

has

improved.But

it

is

likely

that

hydrogen

will

play

a

part

in

decarbonising

someactivities,

because:Hydrogen

is

needed

as

a

molecule

or

feedstock

in

some

industrialprocesses.

In

these

cases,

there

is

no

alternative.∙1.1

Hydrogen

is

one

tool

in

the

decarbonisation

toolkitThe

interaction

between

the

technical

and

economic

characteristics

ofhydrogen

and

its

derivatives

will

determine

the

role

it

plays

in

the

futuredecarbonised

economy

(see

Box

1

on

the

following

page).Hydrogen

may

be

able

to

replace

fossil

fuels

in

some

applicationsto

achieve

high-temperature

industrial

heat

at

lower

cost

thanelectricity.∙Grattan

Institute

20236Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?Box

1:

What

is

hydrogen?Hydrogen

is

the

lightest

element

in

the

periodic

table.

Comparedwith

fossil

fuels

such

as

natural

gas,

petrol,

and

diesel,

it

is

moreenergy-dense

by

weight,

but

less

so

by

volume.

Burning

hydrogenreleases

energy

in

the

form

of

heat,

while

leaving

nothing

but

water

asa

byproduct.–

burned

to

create

heat

for

manufacturing–

burned

to

generate

electricity

using

a

steam

turbine;–

used

in

hydrogen

fuel

cells

to

generate

electricity;The

world

produced

about

95

million

tonnes

(Mt)

of

hydrogen

in

2022–

overwhelmingly

using

carbon-emitting

production

processes

withnatural

gas

and

coal

as

the

feedstock

–

leading

to

more

than

900Mt–

combined

with

other

elements

to

produce

chemicals

such

asammonia

and

methanol.

These

can

then

be

burned

as

fuels;CO

-e

(carbon

dioxide-equivalent)

in

emissions.a

Australia

producesabout

0.5Mt

of

hydrogen

a

year

using

natural

gas,

creating

about

5Mt–

synthesised

with

carbon

to

create

synthetic

hydrocarbons2(such

as

kerosene,

which

is

used

as

jet

fuel).CO

-e

in

emissions.b2For

more

information

on

these

use

cases

of

hydrogen,

see

Appendix

A.Hydrogen

is

currently

used

for

the

production

of

ammonia

(used

infertiliser

and

commercial

explosives),

methanol,

and

other

chemicals;and

to

refine

crude

oil

for

transport

fuels.Currently,

the

most

common

method

for

producing

hydrogen

usesnatural

gas

as

a

feedstock,

a

process

which

creates

CO

emissions2Hydrogen

can

contribute

to

decarbonisation

in

two

ways:–

this

is

often

called

‘grey

hydrogen’.

Low-emissions

hydrogen

canbe

produced

by

capturing

and

storing

CO

(CCS)

–

this

is

often2Decarbonising

the

production

of

hydrogen

intended

for

its

currentuses.∙called

‘blue

hydrogen’

–

but

this

process

is

not

in

widespread

use.Zero-emissions

hydrogen

can

be

produced

through

electrolysis,

usingwater

and

100

per

cent

renewable

electricity

–

this

is

commonly

called‘green

hydrogen’.Using

zero-emissions

hydrogen

to

replace

fossil

fuels

in

otherenergy-intensive

processes.

Hydrogen

can

be:∙a.

IEA

(2023a,

p.

13).b.

DCCEEW

(2023a).Grattan

Institute

20237Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?Hydrogen

may

be

able

to

cost-effectively

replace

fossil

fuels

in∙some

transport

applications,

and

as

a

way

to

store

energy

tobalance

a

grid

that

has

a

high

proportion

of

variable

renewableenergy

generation.Figure

1.1:

Hydrogen-based

processes

could

help

to

abate

some

carbon-intensive

processes

in

AustraliaEmissions

due

to

processes

that

could

be

replaced

with

hydrogen-basedprocesses,

%

of

Australian

emissionsHydrogen

and

its

derivatives

are

a

way

to

transport

energy.

Where∙Ammoniamanufacturingthere

are

severe

imbalances

in

energy

availability,

it

could

makeeconomic

sense

for

countries

to

trade

energy

using

hydrogen

asthe

vector.UnavoidableusesOilrefiningIronmakingAviation1.2

Hydrogen

can

help

Australia

decarboniseAustralia’s

commitment

under

the

2015

Paris

Agreement

to

reach

net-zero

carbon

emissions

by

2050

will

requires

a

wide

range

of

actionsacross

all

of

the

sectors

that

contribute

to

our

domestic

emissions.LikelyusesAluminarefiningMarinetransportZero-emissions

processes

using

hydrogen

will

play

a

role

in

Australia’sdecarbonisation.

We

estimate

that

hydrogen

could

help

reduceAustralia’s

emissions

by

up

to

8.6

per

cent

(see

Figure

1.1).Long-distanceroadfreightElectricitygenerationCementmanufacturingPossibleuses1.3

Hydrogen

will

help

the

world

decarbonise,

and

Australia

canplay

an

outsized

role0%1%2%3%Notes:

All

numbers

are

for

2020

or

2019-20

except

oil

refining,

which

is

for

2022.

Thisis

a

scenario

analysis

of

the

maximum

scope

1

domestic

emissions

abatement

that

canbe

achieved

if

all

carbon-emitting

processes

that

could

technically

be

replaced

by

zero-emissions

hydrogen-based

processes

are

replaced

(see

Appendix

A).

Marine

transportand

aviation

use

total

domestic

marine

and

aviation

emissions.

The

categorisationof

processes

is

by

whether

they

are

likely

to

require

green

hydrogen

to

decarbonise.Some

minor

uses

are

omitted

for

space.

This

is

not

a

prediction

of

the

abatement

thatwill

be

achieved

by

the

adoption

of

zero-emissions

hydrogen-based

processes.Australia

is

well-placed

to

prosper

in

a

decarbonised

world.

In

future,Australia

could

host

more

energy-intensive

economic

activity,

becausewe

have

significant,

but

latent,

clean-energy

comparative

advantages.They

include:a

higher

ratio

of

renewable

energy

resources

to

domestic

demandthan

many

other

countries;1∙Source:

Grattan

analysis

of

ABS

(2020),

Cement

Industry

Federation

(2023),DCCEEW

(2023a),

DCCEEW

(2023b),

DCCEEW

(2023c),

DCCEEW

(2023d),

Deloitteand

ARENA

(2022),

International

Aluminium

Institute

(2023),

Kildahl

et

al

(2023),McConnell

et

al

(2023),

Rocky

Mountain

Institute

(2020),

Pardo

and

Moya

(2013),USGS

(2022),

VDZ

(2021,

p.

11),

and

World

Steel

Association

(2023).1.

Wood

et

al

(2020,

p.

15).

Our

renewable

energy

resources

include

large

amountsof

land

that

are

high

in

solar

photovoltaic

and

wind

potential.

Our

domesticdemand

is

a

function

of

population

and

energy-intensive

exports,

noting

that

bothmay

increase

in

the

future.Grattan

Institute

20238Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?an

endowment

of

mineral

resources

that

will

remain

in

demand(including

some

that

are

crucial

to

the

energy

transition),

andexisting

expertise

in

mining

them;

andChapter

3

surveys

the

potential

uses

of

hydrogen

and

explains

whygovernments

should

focus

their

industry

development

efforts

on

someuses

and

not

others.∙proximity

to

growing

Asian

markets.Chapter

4

presents

information

on

the

uses

government

should

focuson

first:

ammonia,

alumina,

and

iron.∙But

Australia

also

has

competitive

disadvantages,

such

as

higherlabour

and

construction

costs,

as

well

as

challenges

in

firming

theelectricity

grid

at

low

cost.2Chapter

5

recommends

industry

policy

to

target

initial

support

to

thesepriority

uses.Chapter

6

suggests

policy

approaches

for

other

uses

where

relevanttechnologies

and

case-specific

barriers

mean

the

case

for

hydrogenappears

less

compelling

for

now.The

balance

of

these

factors

means

Australia

can

play

an

outsized

rolein

the

world’s

decarbonisation,

especially

where

energy-

and

capital-intensive

processes

are

involved.Hydrogen

is

likely

to

be

the

molecule

at

the

centre

of

two

keyopportunities:

exporting

clean

energy

embedded

in

energy-intensiveproducts,

and

replacing

some

high-carbon

imports

with

domesticproduction

of

green

alternatives

for

domestic

use.

It

may

also

bringemployment

opportunities,

sometimes

in

the

places

that

are

facing

theloss

of

carbon-intensive

industries

such

as

coal

mining

and

productionof

liquefied

natural

gas

(LNG).This

would

be

a

significant

economic

prize.1.4

The

structure

of

this

reportChapter

2

shows

that

supplying

hydrogen

is

expensive

and

complex,and

that

the

government

needs

to

engage

in

industry

development

forhydrogen

to

succeed.2.

Herd

and

Hatfield

Dodds

(2023,

p.

40).

Firming

refers

to

maintaining

a

steadysupply

of

electricity,

when

it

is

largely

supplied

by

a

variable

source,

such

as

solaror

wind.

Zero-emissions

firming

can

be

achieved

through

the

storage

and

releaseof

energy

in

batteries,

traditional

hydro

power,

or

pumped

hydro

systems.

Costsfor

these

depend

on

access

to

low-cost

technologies

and

installation

and

–

in

thecase

of

hydro

–

suitable

geography.Grattan

Institute

20239ERR能研微讯

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能研微讯头条号、西瓜视频（右)能研智库视频号（左）丨能研智库抖音号（右)Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?2Hydrogen

needs

policy

support

to

succeedFigure

2.1:

Hydrogen

costs

will

only

fall

if

electricity

costs

at

the

point

ofproduction

fall

tooAU$/kg

of

hydrogenSupplying

green

hydrogen

increasingly

appears

to

be

more

expensiveand

complex

than

previously

hoped.$7The

cost

of

electricity

drives

the

cost

of

hydrogen

at

the

point

ofproduction,

so

the

key

to

low-cost

hydrogen

production

is

reducingwholesale

prices

for

electricity.Usinggridelectricity$5.86$6$5$4$3$2$1$0$5.57$5.66$5.56Operations

&maintenanceThe

full

cost

of

the

hydrogen

supply

chain

also

includes

the

costof

getting

the

hydrogen

to

where

it

is

needed

for

use.

This

involvesa

choice

between

‘moving

molecules’

or

‘moving

electrons’,

witheach

pathway

having

different

costs.

The

lowest

cost

solution

will

beproject-specific,

but

the

supply

chain

adds

significantly

to

the

cost

ofdelivered

hydrogen.ElectricityWaterInstallationElectrolyser2025$5.03203020352040A

thriving

hydrogen

industry

in

Australia

will

need

policy

supportto

succeed.

The

federal

government’s

National

Hydrogen

Strategyshould

continue

to

focus

on

the

things

that

stand

in

the

way

of

Australiarealising

its

green

energy

potential.

The

government

should

also

makethe

hard

choice

of

ruling

out

some

potential

uses

for

hydrogen

andfocusing

attention

on

others.$7$6$5$4$3$2$1$0Usingbehind-the-meter

electricity$3.86$3.16$2.70But

it

also

makes

sense

for

the

federal

government

to

develop

a

morecomprehensive

green

industry

policy,

to

support

industry

to

developinto

the

form

suggested

by

Australia’s

competitive

advantages

in

cleanenergy,

regardless

of

the

technology

used.20252030203520402.1

Supplying

hydrogen

is

expensive

and

complexNotes:

Hydrogen

costs

are

in

real

2023

dollars,

levelised

over

20

year

project

life.Source:

Grattan

analysis.

A

full

list

of

assumptions

and

data

sources

is

in

Appendix

B.The

cost

of

hydrogen

production

could

fall

over

the

next

two

decades.This

would

in

part

be

driven

by

the

decline

in

the

cost

of

electrolysers,including

their

installation

costs.Grattan

Institute

202310Hydrogen:

hype,

hope,

or

hard

work?But

the

largest

part

of

the

cost

of

green

hydrogen

production

is

thecost

of

electricity

to

run

the

electrolyser

(see

Figure

2.1

on

the

previouspage).3

While

using

grid

electricity

may