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April2024
OilMarketContext
Oilpricesclimbwithrisinggeopoliticalriskandtighteningfundamentals
Brentcrudepriceshaverisennearly20%sincethebeginningoftheyearandhavesurpassed$90/bblforthefirsttimesinceOctober.Thepricerallyoverthelastfewmonthshasbeensupportedbyrisinggeopoliticaltensions,strongspeculativeactivity,andfallinginventories.
Withthelatestharddata,globalonshoreinventoriesfellforaseventhconsecutivemonthinFebruarytotheirlowestlevelsinceatleast2016.
USinventoriesarefrequentlywatchedasabellwetherfortheglobalmarketduetotherelativesizeofinventoriesandthefrequencyofdata.In1Q24,UScrudeandproductinventoriesdrewby27mbcomparedtoabuildofnearly20mboverthesameperiodlastyear.USproductstocksfellbyasubstantial56mbin1Q24–doublethedrawrateseenlastyear.
ThedrawdownininventorieshasbeendrivenbysupplymanagementfromOPEC+androbustdemand.OPEC+iscurrentlywithholding~5.8mb/dfromthemarketthroughcollectiveofficialcutsandvoluntarymeasures.ThenextOPEC+meetingisscheduledforJune1st.
Risinggeopoliticaltensionshavealsocontributedtohigherprices.Morethan10Russianrefinerieshavebeentargetedindroneattacksinthepastfewmonthsandindustryreportsindicatethat~14%ofRussianrefiningcapacityhasbeenpartiallyorfullyhalted.RussiahasalsoincreasedattacksonUkrainianenergyinfrastructure,includingpowerplantsandnaturalgasstoragesites.Additionally,tensionsintheMiddleEastcontinuetorisewithpressreportsindicatingapotentialimminentattackonIsraelfromIranfollowingastrikeonIran’sdiplomaticcompoundinSyriainearlyApril.
Escalatinggeopoliticaltensionshavecontributedtoincreasedspeculativeactivity.OnApril5th,thereweremorebullishBrentcalloptionsboughtbytradersthananyotherdaysince2019.
EIAwarnedinthismonth’sSTEOthatfurthertighteninginthemarketisexpectedin2Q24.Theagencyestimatestherewillbeglobalsupplydeficitof0.9mb/dforthequarterand0.3mb/dfortheyear.
2
Summaryof2023-2025Balances
•IEAreleaseditsinaugural2025forecastthismonthandseesglobaldemandgrowthat1.1mb/d,downfrom2.3mb/dseenlastyearand1.2mb/dexpectedthisyear.IEAseesaslightcontractioninOECDdemandthisyearandnext.
•Demandgrowthforecastsdivergeby1.3mb/din2024and0.7mb/din2025.Theglobaldemandlevelsfor2025divergeby2mb/dwithOPECat106.3mb/dandIEAandEIAbothat104.3mb/d.
•OPECseesthe“callonOPEC”risingboththisyearandnextyearwhileIEAseesadeclinebothyears.OPEC’s2025“callonOPEC”is2.2mb/dhigherthanIEA’sprimarilyduetoOPEC’shigherdemandforecast.
3
Summaryof2023-2025Balances
•EIAupdateditshistoricaldemandestimatesafterincorporatingrecentupdatestoitsInternationalEnergyStatisticsfor
2022.TherevisionswereprimarilytohistoricaldemandinRussia,theMiddleEast,Non-OECDAsia(outsideChinaand
India),andBrazil.Thebaselinerevisionsfor2022werefullycarriedforwardto2023witha1mb/dupwardrevisiontoglobaldemandandpartiallycarriedforwardto2024and2025withan0.5mb/dand0.4mb/dupwardrevision,respectively.While2024globaldemandlevelswererevisedhigherby0.5mb/d,thedemandgrowthfor2024wasreviseddownby0.5mb/d.
•OthernotablerevisionsthismonthincludeIEA’s0.3mb/ddownwardrevisionsto1Q24OECDdemand(JapanandUS)and
1Q24non-OPECsupply(US).OPECalsoreviseddownits2025non-OPECsupplyby0.2mb/donalowerUSforecast.
Month-on-MonthRevisions:2023-2025BalanceSummary
2023
2024
2025
2023
2023Y/Y
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
2024
2024Y/Y
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
2025
2025Y/Y
IEA
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
GlobalDemand
OPEC
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
1.0
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.0
IEA
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
IEA
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
1.1
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
IEA
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLs
OPEC
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
IEA
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
CallonOPEC
OPEC
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.1
EIA
0.9
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.2
GlobalStockChangeandMiscellaneousto
Balance**
IEA
OPEC
EIA
-0.1
0.0
-0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastofOPECcrudeproductionandglobalstockchange
4
2024OutlookComparison
5
Summaryof2024BalancesandRevisions
•EIA’supwardbaselineadjustmentthatwaspartiallycarriedthroughto2024resultedina0.5mb/dhigherglobal
demandlevelforecast,buta0.5mb/dlowerdemandgrowthoutlookcomparedtolastmonth(seepage3formoreinformation).
•Globaldemandgrowthfor2024nowdivergesby1.3mb/dwithEIAseeingonly0.9mb/dgrowthandOPECseeing2.2mb/d.Thelargestdivergencesareinnon-OECDdemand,whereEIAseesonly0.8mb/dgrowththisyearvs.OPEC’s2.0mb/dgrowth.
•Allthreebalancesshowtherewasaglobalsupplydeficitin1Q24.However,theestimatesofdeficitrangefromOPEC’s1.5mb/dtoEIA’s0.2mb/d.
2024BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
2024
2024Y/Y
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
2024
2024Y/Y
IEA
102.0
103.0
103.9
103.8
103.2
1.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
GlobalDemand
OPEC
103.5
103.8
104.9
105.6
104.5
2.2
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
102.1
102.7
103.4
103.4
102.9
0.9
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.5
IEA
45.5
45.6
45.8
45.9
45.7
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.6
45.9
46.4
46.3
46.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
45.4
45.6
46.3
46.4
45.9
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
IEA
56.5
57.4
58.1
57.9
57.5
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
57.9
57.9
58.5
59.3
58.4
2.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
56.6
57.1
57.1
57.1
57.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.5
IEA
74.8
75.7
76.4
76.7
75.9
1.3
-0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLs
OPEC
75.5
75.3
76.0
76.8
75.9
1.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
EIA
75.2
75.3
76.1
76.5
75.8
0.8
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
OPECCrude**
IEA
OPEC
EIA
26.9
26.5
26.7
26.5
27.3
27.1
26.9
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
IEA
27.2
27.3
27.5
27.1
27.3
-0.1
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
CallonOPEC
OPEC
28.0
28.5
28.9
28.8
28.5
1.2
0.4
0.0
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.1
EIA
26.9
27.4
27.3
27.0
27.1
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.6
GlobalStockChangeandMisctoBalance**
IEA
OPEC
EIA
-0.3
-1.5
-0.2
-0.9
0.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastofOPECcrudeproduction&globalstockchange
6
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Evolutionof2024AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
•OPEC’s2024globaldemandgrowthforecastremainedunchangedthismonthwhileEIAandIEArevisedlower.
•IEArevisedupOECDdemandgrowthslightlylowerthismonthfollowing5consecutivemonthsofupwardrevisions.IEAseesaslightcontractioninOECDdemandthisyearwhileOPECandEIAseegrowth.
•EIA’ssignificantdownwardrevisiontonon-OECDdemandwastheresultofsomebaselineadjustmentsthatwereonlypartiallycarriedthroughto2024(seeslide3formoredetails).
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EI
A
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPE
C
EIA
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EI
A
ForecastVintage
7
IEA
OPEC
EIA
OPECseesthestrongestdemandgrowththisyearledbyhigherMiddleEast,China,Russia,andothernon-OECDdemandforecasts
2024DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
Rangein2024DemandGrowth
Forecasts
Global
TotalNon-OECDOtherNon-OECD
China
TotalOECDOECDAmericas
Russia
MiddleEastOECDEurope
India
OECDAsia
Africa
1.31.20.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
Evolutionof2024AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts
•IEAcontinuestoseethemostrobustnon-OPECsupplygrowththisyear,ledbyahigherUSoutlook.IEAseesabout~0.25mb/dstrongerUSgrowthcomparedtoOPECandEIA.
•Russianproductionisexpectedtocontractby~0.20-0.35mb/dthisyearasitcontinuesvoluntarycutswithotherOPEC+members.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EI
A
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EI
A
ForecastVintage
RussiaSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EI
A
ForecastVintage
9
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
IEAseesthestrongestnon-OPECsupplygrowththisyearledbyahigherUSforecast
2024SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEAOPECEIA
Rangein2024SupplyGrowth
Forecasts
TotalNon-OPEC
US
TotalOECD
Russia
OtherNon-OECDNorwayCanada
China
TotalNon-OECD
Brazil
OPECNGLs
OtherOECD
Kazakhstan
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
0.4
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
10
The2024“CallonOPEC”forallthreeforecastsishigherthan1Q24OPECproductionlevels,implyingtherewillbeaglobalsupplydeficitthisyearifOPECproductionremainsconstant
2024CallonOPECandRecentOPECProductionLevels
millionbarrelsperday
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
25.0
1Q242Q243Q244Q242024Avg
IEAOPECEIA1Q24OPECProduction
•The“callonOPECcrude”isacalculationandnota
forecastofactualOPECproduction.
•The“callonOPEC”
estimateswhatOPECwouldneedtoproducetobalanceglobalsupplyanddemand.
•Itisestimatedbysubtractingaforecastfornon-OPEC
productionandOPECNGLsfromglobaldemand.
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
11
2025OutlookComparison
12
Summaryof2025BalancesandRevisions
•IEAreleaseditsinaugural2025forecastthismonthandseesglobaldemandgrowthslowingto1.1mb/dandnon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsgrowingby1.6mb/d.
•OPECsees2.0mb/dhigherglobaldemandlevelsnextyearcomparedtobothEIAandIEA.Thedivergenceprimarilystemsfromthenon-OECD.However,OPECalsosees0.6mb/dhigherOECDdemandlevelsvs.IEA.
•EIA’supwardbaselineadjustmentthatwaspartiallycarriedthroughto2025resultedina0.4mb/dhigherglobaldemandlevelforecastcomparedtolastmonth(seepage3formoreinformation).
13
OPECcontinuestoseeconsistentlyhigherdemandlevelsthroughnextyearwithitsforecastending2025atmore
than2mb/daboveEIAandIEA’sforecasts
2024-25GlobalDemand
demandinmillionbarrelsperday
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25
IEAOPECEIA…IEAprevious…OPECprevious…EIAprevious
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
14
IEA
OPEC
●EIA
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
IEA
OPEC
●EIA
Evolutionof2025AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
•IEA’sinaugural2025forecastshowsglobaldemandgrowingby1.1mb/dnextyear,whichis0.7mb/dlowerthanOPEC’sforecast.Thelargestdivergencestemsfromthenon-OECD.
•IEAseesacontractioninOECDdemandnextyearwhileEIAandOPECseeslightgrowth.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
15
GlobalTotalNon-OECDOtherNon-OECD TotalOECDOECDAmericasMiddleEast
China
India
RussiaOECDEurope
OECDAsia
Africa
0.7
OPECseesthehighestdemandgrowthnextyearledbyastrongerMiddleEast,China,&othernon-OECDoutlook
2025DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
Rangein2025DemandGrowth
Forecasts
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
16
Non-OPECproductionisexpectedtorisesteadilyandexit2025at~2.5-3.0mb/dabovecurrentlevels
2024-25Non-OPECSupply
supplyinmillionbarrelsperday
74.0
73.0
72.0
71.0
70.0
69.0
68.0
1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25
IEAOPECEIA…IEAprevious…OPECpreviousEIAprevious
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
17
IEA
OPEC
EIA
IEA
OPEC
●EIA
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Evolutionof2025AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts
•EIAandOPEC’s2025non-OPECsupplygrowthforecastsmovedfurtherapartthismonthasEIArevisedupitsUSforecastandOPECreviseddownitsUSforecast.
•EIArevisedupits2025USsupplygrowthforecastforathirdconsecutivemonthandnowseesnearly0.3mb/dstrongergrowththanOPECandIEA.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
RussiaSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
18
USTotalNon-OPEC TotalOECD OPECNGLsOtherNon-OECD
TotalNon-OECD
Brazil RussiaKazakhstan China CanadaNorway
OtherOECD
0.3
0.3
EIAseesthestrongestnon-OPECsupplygrowthnextyearwithamorerobustUSandRussiaforecast
2025SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
IEAOPECEIA
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
Rangein2025SupplyGrowth
Forecasts
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
19
OPECseesa2mb/dhigher“callonOPEC”vs.IEAandEIAduetoamorerobustdemandoutlookandatighter
baseline
2025CallonOPECandRecentOPECProductionLevels
millionbarrelsperday
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
1Q25
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