全球最大经济体风险市场调研和分析报告（英文版）-2024年1月上传培训课件

COUNTRIES

®IONSRecession

risk

in

the

largesteconomies

globallyAre

we

on

the

brink

of

a

global

recession?Key

questionsanswered

inthisreport123What

iscausingthecurrenteconomic

slowdown?Is

theglobal

economy

headedtoward

arecession?How

are

thelargesteconomiesfaring?•

Inflation

inRussiaincreased

to

4.3percentinJuly

2023

after•

Real

GDPgrowth

worldwide

isprojected

to

reach

3.3

percent

in2023.•

InQ12023,

realincome

fellby0.5percent

inFrance,by0.9percent

inthe

UK,andbyonepercent

inGermany.decreasing

intheprevious

months.•

Inflation

intheUKstood

at6.4percentinJuly

2023.•

Real

GDP

growth

inthe

eurozone

isforecast

toslow

to0.9percentin2023.•

InMay

2023,

industrialproductiondecreasedby2.2

percent

inJapanand0.6

percent

intheUK.•

Inflation

inItaly

was

at5.9

percentinJuly

2023,

afterpeakingin•

Real

GDPinRussiais

estimated

tohavefallen2.1

percent

in2022.October

andNovember

2022.•

InJune

2023,

retail

salesdeclinedby0.6

percent

inGermanyand

inItaly.•

Inflation

intheU.S.

was

down

to3.2

percentinJuly

2023.•

Real

GDPintheUKis

set

todecreaseby0.3

percent

in2023.2Whatiscausingthecurrent

economicslowdown?1Globalrecession

timelineMajor

events

thatshaped

theglobal

economy

between

2020

and2022COVID-19

pandemicNegative

GDPgrowthSpiralingenergy

pricesThefirstwave

of

the

pandemicresulted

ineconomicrestrictions

thatvaried

inseverity.

Demand

forgoodsandservices

fell.Duringthefirsttwo

waves

ofthe

pandemic,

countriesstruggledtocontainoutbreaks.Lockdowns

and

closures

meanteconomic

outputfell

in2020.Despite

increasing

demand,energy

supplieswere

low.Energy

began

to

contributesignificantlytohigh

inflationtowards

theendof

2021.202020202021202120222022Crashing

stock

marketsRisingpricesfor

food

andraw

materialsRussia-Ukraine

invasionInMarch

2020,

stockmarkets

worldwidesuffered

dramaticfalls.They

would

takesometimetorecover

dueto

thelong

crisis.Theglobaleconomic

recoveryfrom

the

COVID-19

pandemicstalled

following

Russia’sinvasion

ofUkraine

inDemand

forgoods

andservicesrecovered

quicklythroughout2021.

Supplychains,on

theother

hand,

struggledtoreturntonormal,driving

up

prices.February

2022.3Sources:

Bloomberg;FAO;

IMF;OECD;

Reuters;The

Economist;

WorldBankWhatiscausingthecurrent

economicslowdown?1Despite

energy

prices

decreasing,

inflationkeeps

bitingTheIMF

primary

commodity

priceindexshowed

global

fuelprices

decreased

throughout

the

first

half

of

2023,

leadingtolower

–

but

stillhigh–

inflationlevelsInflationisdecreasingbutremainshigh.

WhileChinaisexperiencing

deflation,inflation

in

the

UKwasat6.4

percentinJuly

2023.Russia

invadesUkraineThe

cost

of

fuelreturnedtopre-invasion

levelsafterpeakingat376.41inAugust2022.18%16%14%12%10%8%Priceindex(2016=100)Russia

invadesUkraine376.4140035030025020015010050331.78256.46256.866%4%174.982%138.450%93.23-2%Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun'20

'21

'21

'21

'21

'21

'21

'22

'22

'22

'22

'22

'22

'23

'23

'23BrazilGermanyChinaItalyEurozoneJapanFranceRussiaUnitedKingdomUnitedStates4Notes:(1)

Worldwide;

April

2020

to

July

2023;

(2)

Worldwide;

December2020

toJuly

2023;

inflation

comparedtothe

samemonth

ofthe

previous

yearSources:

(1)

IMF,

ID:1302801;

(2)

BureauofLabor

Statistics;

Eurostat;INSEE;

National

BureauofStatistics

ofChina;

Office

forNational

Statistics

of

UK;Russian

FederalState

Statistics

Service;Statistics

BureauofJapan;Statistisches

Bundesamt,

ID:1034154Istheglobaleconomy

headedtowards

arecession?2Globalgrowth

forecast

tostallbetween

2023

and

2024Estimated

GDP

growth

in2022

andforecasts

for2023

and

2024EurozoneWorldEmerginganddeveloping

Asia3.5%20221.5%20240.9%20235.3%20235%3.5%20224.5%20223.3%20233%UnitedStatesMiddleEast

andCentralAsia202420241%2.1%20221.8%20235.4%20243.2%20242.5%20232022LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanSub-SaharanAfrica4.1%3.9%20223.5%20233.9%2.2%20241.9%2023202220245Notes:Worldwide;

2022

estimates,

2023

and

2024

forecasts;

annual

percent

changeSources:

IMF,

ID:1340688Istheglobaleconomy

headedtowards

arecession?2Developed

economiesexpected

tostrugglethemostwith

growthEstimated

GDP

growth

for

2022

andforecasts

for2023

and

2024

inselected

countries

worldwideCountryArgentinaAustraliaBrazil20225.2%3.7%2.9%3.4%3%20230.2%1.6%0.9%1.5%5.2%3.7%0.7%-0.1%5.9%5%20242%CountryIran20222.5%3.7%1.1%3.2%8.7%3.1%4.5%3%20232%20242%CountryPoland20224.9%-2.1%8.7%2%202320242.4%1.3%3.1%1.8%2%0.3%0.7%3.1%0.1%1.5%1.5%3.4%2.7%-0.3%1.6%1.7%1.5%1.5%4.5%5%Italy0.7%1.3%4.3%4.5%1.8%1%0.8%1%RussiaJapanSaudiArabiaSouthAfricaSpainCanadaChinaKazakhstanMalaysiaMexico4.9%4.5%1.6%1.2%3%5.5%2.6%2.6%5.6%4%Egypt6.6%2.6%1.8%6.8%5.3%SouthKoreaThailandTurkey2.4%3.6%3.6%1%France1.3%1.1%6.3%5.1%NetherlandsNigeriaGermanyIndia3.2%0.5%6%PakistanPhilippines6%3.5%5.8%UKIndonesia7.6%U.S.2.1%1%6Notes:Worldwide;

2022

estimates,

2023

and

2024

forecasts;

the

selected

countries

represent83

percentofthe

world

output;

annual

percent

changeSources:

IMF,

ID:1365937MethodologyAccording

totheU.S.

NationalBureau

ofEconomic

Research

(NBER),

“a

recessioninvolves

asignificantdecline

ineconomic

activitythatisspread

across

theeconomy

andlastsmore

thanafew

months.”

Asthisdefinitionis

broadandcouldleave

room

forinterpretation,

theNBER

provides

fivekey

indicatorstotrackthedevelopment

oftheeconomy.Usingmultiple

sources,compiled

anoverview

ofthedevelopment

of

thefivekey

indicatorsof

arecession

inthelargest

economies

worldwide

in2022.

Thetrafficlightsystem

isdesigned

to

provide

avisualaidtoidentifythestateof

thevarious

indicators.

Foreach

indicator,thedialposition

isbased

ontheweightedaverage

over

thethree

periods

according

to

thescheme

below.Real

GDPSignificant

growth

of3%

or

betterReal

disposable

incomeIndustrialproductionUnemploymentrateWholesale/retail

salesModerate

growth

between

1%

and2.9%Weak

growth

between

0%

and

0.9%Moderate

decreasebetween

0.1%

and1%Significant

decrease

of

1.1%

or

worse7Sources:

National

BureauofEconomic

Research3How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?BrazilꢀꢁꢂꢃꢄREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ3

2022Q42022Q1

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

20230.5%

-0.1%

0.9%0.2%-1.9%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023-0.6%

0.3%

0.1%8.3%

8.1%

7.9%0.1%-1%0%8Notes:(1)

Brazil;Q3

2022

toQ1

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

quarter;(2)

Brazil;Q3

2022

and

Q1

2023,

data

forQ4

2022

not

available;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(3)

Brazil;April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;(4)

Brazil;April

to

June

2023;

three-month

moving

average;

(5)

Brazil;April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

monthSources:

(1)

OECD,

ID:276943;

(2)

Central

Bank

ofBrazil,ID:1343338;

(3)

(4)

(5)

BrazilianInstitute

ofGeographyand

Statistics,ID:1342976;

ID:276771;

ID:13429703How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?ChinaREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ4

2022Q12023Q2

2023Q4

2022Q1

2023Q2

20230.5%

2.2%

0.8%2.9%

3.8%

5.8%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023May2023Jun2023Jul2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023-0.2%0.6%

0.7%5.2%

5.2%

5.3%0.3%0.4%

0.2%9Notes:(1)

(2)

China;

Q4

2022

to

Q22023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

quarter;(3)

China;

April

to

June

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;

(4)

China;

Mayto

July

2023;

refers

to

urban

areas;

(5)

China;

April

toJune

2023;growthcomparedtothe

previous

monthSources:

(1)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

National

BureauofStatistics,ID:1342025;

ID:1342067;

ID:

1109881;

ID:13423063How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?European

Unionꢒꢕ

ꢆꢄ

ꢅꢆꢇꢗꢞꢀꢇꢀꢆꢟꢈꢁꢎꢆꢕꢅꢉꢅꢁꢙꢕꢅꢠꢀ

ꢆꢌꢅꢃ

ꢡꢉꢕ

ꢁꢂꢊꢅꢆꢕꢅꢜ

ꢃꢀꢄ

ꢅꢆꢇ

ꢀꢁꢂꢀꢃꢄ

ꢅꢆꢇꢈꢔꢀ

ꢄ

ꢏꢕ

ꢊꢌꢚꢎꢄ

ꢅꢆꢇꢐꢀ

ꢃꢌꢅꢆꢑꢐꢊ

ꢀꢃꢆꢈ

ꢀꢑ

ꢗꢅꢃꢡꢢ

ꢀꢃꢈꢀꢑꢝꢥꢀꢓꢂꢕꢅREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEꢗꢄꢎꢙꢅꢡꢕꢅꢤꢊꢆꢏꢅꢃꢑꢖꢊꢈꢁꢃꢕꢅꢒꢃꢅꢆꢓꢀꢗꢄꢎꢙ

ꢀꢆꢕꢅꢝꢃꢎꢅꢁꢕꢅꢣꢎꢌꢅꢆꢕ

ꢅꢜꢁꢅꢄꢑQ4

2022Q12023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

2023ꢔꢊꢄꢏꢅꢃꢕ

ꢅ-0.1%

0.2%0%-0.2%

-0.4%

0.5%ꢚꢎ

ꢃꢁꢊꢏꢅꢄꢗꢘꢅꢕ

ꢆꢐꢃꢀꢀ

ꢓꢀꢐꢕꢍꢃꢅꢄ

ꢁꢅꢃꢛꢅꢄꢁꢅINDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun20230.8%0%

0.5%6%5.9%

5.9%0.1%0.3%

-0.2%10

Notes:(1)

European

Union;

Q4

2022

toQ2

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

quarter;(2)

European

Union;

Q3

2022

toQ1

2023;

growth

comparedtothe

previous

quarter;(3)

European

Union;

April

to

June

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

month

(4)

EuropeanUnion;

April

toJune

2023;

(5)

European

Union;

April

to

June

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

monthSources:

(1)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Eurostat,ID:1342029;

ID:1342033;

ID:264887;

ID:13422923How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?FranceREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ4

2022Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

20230.1%

0.1%

0.5%0.8%

1.2%

-0.5%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun20230.6%1.1%

-0.9%7%7.1%

7.1%-1.5%0%

0.4%11

Notes:(1)

France;Q4

2022

toQ2

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(2)

France;Q3

2022

toQ1

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(3)

France;April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;

(4)

France;April

to

June

2023;

(5)

France;April

to

June

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

monthSources:

(1)

(2)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

ID:1341807;

(3)

Eurostat,ID:1342033;

(4)

Ycharts,ID:1342007;

(5)

Eurostat,ID:13422923How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?GermanyREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ4

2022Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

2023-0.4%

-0.1%0%0.6%

-1.6%-1%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023May2023Jun2023Jul2023Apr

2023May2023Jun20230.2%

-0.2%

-1.3%5.5%

5.5%

5.7%0.8%2.1%

-0.6%12

Notes:(1)

Germany;Q42022

to

Q2

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(2)

Germany;Q3

2022

toQ1

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(3)

Germany;April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;

(4)

Germany;May

toJuly

2023;(5)

Germany;April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

monthSources:

(1)

(2)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

ID:1341807;

(3)

Eurostat,ID:1342033;

(4)

Bundesagentur

für

Arbeit,

ID:1304278;

(5)

Eurostat,ID:13422923How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?ItalyREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ4

2022Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1

2023-0.1%

0.6%

-0.3%0.2%

-3.6%

3.3%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023-2%1.7%

0.5%7.7%7.5%

7.4%-0.1%0%

-0.6%13

Notes:(1)

Italy;

Q4

2022

to

Q2

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

quarter;(2)Italy;

Q32022

to

Q1

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(3)

Italy;April

to

June

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;

(4)

Italy;

April

to

June

2023;

(5)

Italy;

April

to

June2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

monthSources:

(1)

(2)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

ID:1341807;

(3)

Eurostat,ID:1342033;

(4)

ISTAT,

ID:575787;

(5)

Eurostat,ID:13422923How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?JapanREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEꢀꢁꢀꢂQ4

2022Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

20230%

0.9%

1.5%-0.1%

-0.4%

-0.4%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun20230.7%

-2.2%

2.4%2.6%2.6%

2.5%-1.1%1.3%

-0.4%14

Notes:(1)

Japan;

Q4

2022

toQ2

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

quarter;(2)

Japan;

Q3

2022

toQ1

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(3)

Japan;

April

to

June

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;

(4)

Japan;

April

toJune

2023;

(5)

Japan;

April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

monthSources:

(1)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

(2)

Cabinet

Office

ofJapan,ID:1342204;

(3)

METI,

ID:1342132;

(4)

Statistics

BureauofJapan,ID:276787;

(5)

METI;Trading

Economics,ID:13423113How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?RussiaREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ4

2022Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

2023-2.7%

-1.8%

4.9%-18.8%

-21.9%

13.5%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023-5%

-0.3%

1.5%3.3%3.3%

3.2%-0.2%2%

1.5%15

Notes:(1)

Russia;

Q4

2022

to

Q22023;

growthcomparedtothe

samequarter

ofthe

previous

year;(2)

Russia;

Q3

2022

to

Q12023;

growth

comparedtothe

samequarter

ofthe

previous

year;(3)

Russia;

April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

month;

(4)

Russia;April

to

June

2023;

(5)

Russia;

April

to

June

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

monthSources:

(1)

(2)

Russian

FederalState

Statistics

Service,

ID:276951;

ID:1342481;

(3)

Russian

FederalState

Statistics

Service;Trading

Economics,

ID:1342213;

(4)

Russian

FederalState

Statistics

Service,

ID:277043;

(5)

Russian

FederalState

Statistics

Service;Trading

Economics,

ID:13139113How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?United

KingdomREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ4

2022Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

20230.1%

0.1%

0.2%-0.2%

1.2%

-0.9%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEApr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023Apr

2023May2023Jun2023-0.3%

-0.6%

1.8%3.8%4%

4.2%0.1%0.6%

1.2%16

Notes:(1)

United

Kingdom;

Q4

2022

to

Q22023;

growthcomparedtothe

previous

quarter;(2)

United

Kingdom;

Q3

2022

to

Q1

2023;

growth

comparedtothe

previous

quarter;(3)

United

Kingdom;

April

toJune

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;

(4)

UnitedKingdom;

April

toJune

2023;

(5)

United

Kingdom;

May

to

July

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

monthSources:

(1)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Office

forNational

Statistics

ofUK,ID:1341952;

ID:1342035;

ID:279898;

ID:13423023How

arethelargesteconomies

faring?United

StatesREAL

GDPDISPOSABLEINCOMEQ4

2022Q12023Q2

2023Q3

2022Q4

2022Q1

20230.6%

0.5%

0.6%0.5%

0.3%

1.7%INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTIONUNEMPLOYMENTRETAIL

TRADEMay2023Jun2023Jul2023May2023Jun2023Jul2023May2023Jun2023Jul2023-0.4%

-0.8%1%3.7%

3.6%

3.5%0.5%

0.2%

0.6%17

Notes:(1)

United

States;Q4

2022

toQ2

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

quarter;(2)

United

States;Q3

2022

to

Q1

2023;

growth

compared

to

the

previous

quarter;(3)

United

States;May

toJuly

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

month;

(4)

United

States;

May

toJuly

2023;

(5)

United

States;May

to

July

2023;

growthcomparedto

the

previous

monthSources:

(1)

(2)

OECD,

ID:1341661;

ID:1341807;

(3)

FederalReserve

System,ID:1342034;

(4)

BureauofLaborStatistics,

ID:273909;

(5)

St.Louis

Fed;U.S.

Census

Bureau,ID:1342312Outlook123What

iscausingthecurrenteconomic

slowdown?Is

theglobal

economy

headedtowards

arecession?How

are

thelargesteconomiesfaring?Geopolitical

tensions

and

supplychaindisruptions–

caused

bythe

on-goingRussia-Ukraine

war–

led

tosoaringfood

andenergy

prices

throughout2022

and

thefirsthalfof2023.

Asthecurrent

crisis

–

driven

byhighinflationandeconomic

uncertainty–

persists,

itisunlikely

thatthe

outlook

fortheglobal

economy

will

improve

soon.Pressure

on

globalsupplychainsremains

high,

while

inflationisDespite

improving

inrecent

months,geopolitical

risk

and

economicinstabilityareexpected

to

keephindering

economic

growth

globally.InJuly2023,

the

IMF

publishedupdated

Federal

Reserve,

theBankof

England,GDP

growth

forecasts,

revising

figuresfrom

itsJanuary2023

release.Developed

countries

aremostimpacted:

Economic

growth

inEuropeandNorth

America

isset

to

slow

in2023,

while

China

ispredictedtoexperience

itsslowest

growth

inyears.While

unemployment

remains

stable,industrialproduction

hasslowed

downinthe

largest

economies

worldwide,andsohasconsumption.

TheU.S.andthe

European

Central

Bank

raisedinterest

ratesthroughout

2022

and

thefirsthalfof

2023

toslow

downinflation,which

is

inhibitinginvestments.

GDP

and

income

arestagnating,

butanalystspredict

asoftlanding

andthatarecession

could

beavoided

in2023.decreasing

onlyslowly,

and

economiesworldwide

are

stagnating.18Sources:

IMF;

ID:131530