通货膨胀对全球旅游业的影响分析报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSImpactofinflationontravelandtourismworldwideCHAPTER

01ImpactontravelintheUnitedStatesYear-over-yearpercentagechangeinthetravelpriceindexvs.consumerpriceindexintheUnitedStatesfromJanuary2022toDecember2023Changeinthetravelpriceindexvs.consumerpriceindexintheU.S.2022-2023TravelpriceindexConsumerpriceindex25%20%15%10%5%19.3%8.5%19.4%8.6%18.1%8.3%17.5%9.1%16.7%7.9%14.5%7.5%11.5%8.5%11.3%10.8%10.2%8.3%

8.2%9.1%7.1%8.5%6.8%6.5%

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20233Description:Thetravelpriceindex(TPI)publishedbytheU.S.TravelAssociationincludesdataonthemonthlychangesintheconsumerpriceindex(CPI)oftravelandtourismservicesintheUnitedStates,suchasairlinefares,lodging,andrecreation.Throughout2022,andparticularlyinthefirsthalfoftheyear,boththetravelandconsumerpriceindexesgrewdramatically,withtheTPIreportingastaggering19.4percentannualincreaseinMay.Meanwhile,inDecember2023,theTPIwentupby1.3[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;January2022toDecember2023;non-seasonallyadjustedfiguresSource(s):TourismEconomics;USDepartmentofLabor;USTravelAssociationPercentagechangeinthetravelpriceindexintheUnitedStatesinDecember2023,byindustryChangeinthetravelpriceindexintheU.S.December2023,byindustry2023

vs.

20221.3%2023

vs.

201919%TravelpriceindexTransportation-5%11.9%-3.5%Airlinefares-9.4%-2.3%1.5%Motorfuel24%IntracitypublictransportationIntercitytransportationLodging(hotels/motels)Recreation7.2%-3%1.4%-0.5%5.2%15.8%14.5%25.2%19.2%25.5%19.4%FoodandbeverageAlcoholawayfromhomeFoodawayfromhomeConsumerpriceindex5.2%4.6%5.2%3.3%4Description:ThetravelpriceindexpublishedbytheU.S.TravelAssociationincludesdataonthemonthlychangesintheconsumerpriceindex(CPI)oftravelandtourismservicesintheUnitedStates.Accordingtothestudy,recreationservicesandfood&beverageservicesreportedthehighestincreaseinDecember2023,eachrisingby5.2percentoverthepreviousyear.Overall,thetravelpriceindexntheU.S.grewby1.3percentcomparedtoDecember2022.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;December2023;non-seasonallyadjustedfiguresSource(s):USDepartmentofLabor;USTravelAssociationImpactofinflationandhighpricesontravelplansintheUnitedStatesasofSeptember2023ImpactofhighpricesontravelplansintheU.S.20232022202390%80%70%60%50%40%79%77%32%31%30%20%10%0%TheupcomingholidayswillputastrainonmybudgetChangedsomethingaboutmyholidayplansasaresultofinflationorhighprices5Description:AccordingtoaSeptember2023studyontheimpactofinflationontravelplanningintheUnitedStates,77percentofU.S.respondentsmentionedchangingsomethingabouttheirholidayplansasaresultofhighprices.Meanwhile,31percentofthesamplebelievedthattheupcomingholidayplanswouldputastrainontheirbudget.Inbothcases,thefiguresdeclinedslightlycomparedtothepreviousyear'ssurvey.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;September12to14,2023;2,419¹Source(s):BankrateShareoftravelerswhochangedtheirholidayplansduetoinflationandrisingpricesintheUnitedStatesasofSeptember2023,byannualhouseholdincomeShareofU.S.travelerschangingtheirholidayplansduetoinflation2023,byincomeUnder50,000U.S.dollars50,000to79,999U.S.dollars80,000to99,999U.S.dollars100,000U.S.dollarsormore35%30%25%20%15%10%5%32%28%22%27%26%25%

25%25%24%24%23%23%23%22%22%22%21%21%20%19%17%17%16%16%0%DrivinginsteadofflyingtodestinationTakingfewertripsSelectinglessexpensiveaccommodationand/ordestinationsTravelingashorterdistanceTravelingforfewerdaysEngagingincheaperactivities6Description:ASeptember2023studyfocusedontheimpactofpricerisesonholidayplansintheUnitedStates.Asofthatmonth,roughlyathirdofU.S.respondentswiththelowestannualhouseholdincome(under50thousandU.S.dollars)mentionedplanningtodriveinsteadofflyingtoreachthetraveldestinationduetotheimpactofinflation.Bycontrast,just22percentofsurveyedtravelerswithanannualincomeof100thousandU.S.dollarsormorestatedthesame.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;September12to14,2023;2,419¹;18yearsandolder;U.S.adultswhoplannedanovernightleisuretripfortheholidayseasonSource(s):Bankrate;YouGovShareofconsumerswhospentlessontravelanddiningoutinthepastsixmonthsintheUnitedStatesasofOctober2023,byannualhouseholdincomeConsumerswhospentlessontravelanddiningoutintheU.S.2023,byincomeTotalsampleUnder50,000U.S.dollars50,000to99,999U.S.dollars100,000U.S.dollarsormore80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%71%68%68%66%66%65%60%52%40%35%37%29%Spentmoreonfoodtocookathomeandlessonexperiences(travel,diningout)Spentlessonexperiences(travel,diningout)Postponedorskippedapersonaltriporvacation7Description:AccordingtoanOctober2023survey,sixin10consumersintheUnitedStatesspentlessontravelanddiningoutinthepastsixmonths.Thatsaid,whileroughlytwo-thirdsofrespondentswithanannualincomeofupto100thousandU.S.dollarsreporteddoingso,just52percentofconsumerswhoearnedmorethan100,000U.S.dollarsayearmentionedspendinglessonsuchexperiences.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;October24and25,2023;1,118respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):IpsosCHAPTER

02ImpactontravelinEuropeAnnualaverageharmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)oftravelandtourismservicesintheEuropeanUnion(EU-27)from2019to2023,byindustryAnnualaverageHICPoftravelandtourismservicesintheEU2019-20232019105.69105.04103.84103.47104.66102.76104.692020104.32021105.85103.26101.891042022111.25103.78102.19106.82113.72111.44114.182023116.89108.29106.8TransportservicesPassengertransportbyrailwayPassengertransportbytrain101.63100.15103.64105.88103.99105.85PassengertransportbyundergroundandtramPassengertransportbyroad110107.31105.4118.02113.78122.67PassengertransportbybusandcoachPassengertransportbytaxiandhiredcarwithdriver107.23PassengertransportbyairPassengertransportbyseaandinlandwaterwayRecreationalandculturalservicesPackageholidays¹107.01104.49104.73106.42107.95102.48106.04106.63105.27110.28105.98108.87109.04105.93112.75131.93119.58113.19118.11120.62144.57124.36119.5130.8Cateringservices130.349Description:In2023,theannualaverageharmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)forairpassengertransportintheEuropeanUnionwas144.57.ThisfigureindicatesthattheHICPinthatindustryrosebyroughly9.6percentcomparedtothepreviousyear.Meanwhile,theHICPofaccommodationservicesintheEUwas137.43in2023,denotinga9.3percentincreasefrom2022.ReadmoreNote(s):EU;2019to2023;Index(2015=100)Source(s):EurostatHarmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)inflationrateoftravelandtourismservicesintheEuropeanUnion(EU-27)inFebruary2024,byindustryHICPinflationrateoftravelandtourismservicesintheEU2024HICP

inflation

rateTransportservices-0.1%1.2%1.1%2.2%2.7%2%PassengertransportbyrailwayPassengertransportbytrainPassengertransportbyundergroundandtramPassengertransportbyroadPassengertransportbybusandcoachPassengertransportbytaxiandhiredcarwithdriverPassengertransportbyair3.9%4.6%2.6%4.2%8.3%5.7%5.8%PassengertransportbyseaandinlandwaterwayRecreationalandculturalservicesPackageholidaysCateringservices10Description:InFebruary2024,packageholidaysreportedthesharpestinflationrateamongtheselectedtravelandtourismservicesintheEuropeanUnion,withtheharmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)risingby8.3percentoverthepreviousyear.Meanwhile,accommodationservicesintheEUalsorecordedahighinflationrateinFebruary2024,withtheHICPincreasingby5.5percentcomparedtoFebruary2023.

ReadmoreNote(s):EU;February2024;year-over-yearpercentagechangeSource(s):EurostatHarmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)inflationrateforrestaurants,cafés,andsimilarservicesintheEuropeanUnion(EU-27)fromDecember2017toFebruary2024HICPinflationrateforrestaurantsandcafésintheEU2017-202410.5%9.5%8.5%7.5%6.5%5.5%4.5%3.5%2.5%1.5%0.5%11Description:InFebruary2024,theinflationrateforrestaurants,cafés,andsimilarservicesintheEuropeanUnionwas5.8percent,decliningslightlyoverthepreviousmonthbutstillrepresentingoneofthehighestfiguresreportedsinceDecember2017.Bycontrast,restaurantsandcafésintheEUrecordedtheirlowestinflationrateinFebruary2021,at1.7percent.ReadmoreNote(s):EU;December2017toFebruary2024;year-over-yearpercentagechangeSource(s):EurostatHarmonizedindexofconsumerprices(HICP)inflationrateforhotels,motels,inns,andsimilaraccommodationestablishmentsintheEuropeanUnion(EU-27)fromDecember2017toFebruary2024HICPinflationrateforhotelsandsimilaraccommodationintheEU2017-202425%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%12Description:InFebruary2024,theinflationrateforhotels,motels,inns,andsimilaraccommodationestablishmentsintheEuropeanUnionwas5.2percent.WhileFebruary2024'sinflationratedeclinedsignificantlycomparedtothepeakreportedinJune2022,itstillrepresentedoneofthehighestfiguresrecordedsinceDecember2017.Bycontrast,hotelsandsimilarestablishmentsintheEUreportedanegativeinflationrateof7.6percentinSeptember2020.

ReadmoreNote(s):EU;December2017toFebruary2024;year-over-yearpercentagechangeSource(s):EurostatMainconcernsofEuropeansabouttravelingwithinEuropeasofSeptember2023Europeans'mainconcernsabouttripswithinEurope2023Shareofrespondents0%

5%10%15%20%25%Riseintheoverallcostofmytripduetoinflation22.3%EconomicsituationandpersonalfinancesExtremeweatherevents15.8%14.2%TheongoingconflictbetweenRussiaandUkraineToomanyvisitorsinthedestinationsIwanttovisitBookingandcancellationpolicies(refunds,etc.)11%8.7%6.5%5.7%5.5%SuddenquarantinemeasuresorchangesintravelrestrictionsduringmytripTheenvironmentalfootprintofmytravel13Description:ASeptember2023surveyfocusedonthebiggestconcernsofEuropeanswhoweremostlikelytotravelwithintheregionoverthefollowingsixmonths.Accordingtothestudy,theriseinthetotalcostofthetripduetoinflationwasthemaincauseofdistressforEuropeantravelers,withroughly22percentofthesamplementioningthisissue.Similarly,around16percentofrespondentsclaimedtobeworriedabouttheoveralleconomicsituationandtheirpersonalfinances.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;September11to26,2023;4,052respondents;18yearsandolder;respondentswhoweremostlikelytotravelinthenext6months;Europeanswhotookatleasttwoovernighttripsbetween2020and2022Source(s):EuropeanTravelCommissionCountrieswiththehighestshareoftravelersconcernedwithrisingtravelcostsandpersonalfinancesinEuropeasofSeptember2023Europeantravelersmostconcernedwithrisingtravelcosts2023,bycountryConcerned

with

rising

travel

costsConcerned

with

personalfinancesPoland27%%17%17%16%16%%UnitedKingdomSpain24%%BelgiumFrance24%24%Italy%14Description:ASeptember2023surveylookedattheEuropeanmarketswiththehighestshareoftravelersconcernedwithrisingtravelcostsandpersonalfinances.Accordingtothestudy,PolandwastheEuropeancountrymostworriedabouttherisingcostoftrips,with27percentofsurveyedPolishtravelersreportingso.Polandalsohadthehighestshareofrespondentsconcernedwithpersonalfinances,togetherwiththeUnitedKingdom.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;September11to26,2023;4,052respondents;18yearsandolder;respondentswhoweremostlikelytotravelwithinEuropeinthenext6months;Europeanswhotookatleasttwoovernighttripsbetween2020and2022Source(s):EuropeanTravelCommissionShareofindividualswhobelievedthatinflationhadanimpactontheenthusiasmtotravelinselectedEuropeancountriesasofApril2023ShareofEuropeansbelievingthatinflationimpactedthedesiretotravel2023Shareofrespondents0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%PortugalFrance84%77%76%75%73%PolandItalySpainAustria63%62%60%59%58%GermanyCzechRepublicUnitedKingdomBelgiumSwitzerland54%15Description:AccordingtoanApril2023study,mostrespondentsintheselectedEuropeancountriesbelievedthatinflationimpactedatleastsomewhattheirenthusiasmtotravel.Overall,Portugalreportedthehighestshareofrespondentswhofeltaffectedbythisissue,with84percentofthesamplestatingthatinflationimpactedthedesiretotravel.France,Poland,andItalyfollowedbehind.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;March20toApril7,2023;11,002¹;18yearsandolder;combinedshareofrespondentswhoanswered"verymuch"and"somewhat"Source(s):EuropAssistance;IpsosMainreasonstoavoidlong-haultraveltoEuropeinthenext12monthsinselectedcountriesworldwideasofDecember2023Reasonstonottravellong-haultoEuropeworldwide2023,bycountryAustraliaBrazilCanadaChinaJapanSouthKoreaUnitedStates50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%HightravelcostsLimitedvacationtime

InterestinanotherregionI'vebeeninEuropeTensionsintheMiddle

Russia'swarinUkraineEast16Description:AccordingtoaDecember2023study,43percentofrespondentsinJapanwhointendedtotravellong-haulinthenext12months,butnottoEurope,statedthathightravelcostswerethemainbarrierstovisitingtheregion.While39percentofthesampleinBrazilmentionedthesameissue,just20percentofChineserespondentsbelievedthathightravelexpenseswereanobstacletovisitingEurope.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;December2023;1,153respondents;18-70years;respondentsplanninglong-haultripsbetweenJanuaryandDecember2024,butnottoEuropeSource(s):Eurail;EuropeanTravelCommission;TCIResearchCHAPTER

03ImpactontravelintheUnitedKingdomAnnualaverageconsumerpriceindex(CPI)inflationrateoftravelandtourismservicesintheUnitedKingdom(UK)from2019to2023,byindustryAnnualaverageCPIinflationrateoftravelandtourismservicesintheUK2019-202320195.8%2.7%3.4%1%20203.7%3.9%4.8%1.3%2.7%20212.4%2.3%2.7%1.1%5.2%20228%20236.5%5.7%5.6%6.1%5.3%TransportservicesPassengertransportbyrailwayPassengertransportbytrainPassengertransportbyundergroundandtram6%6.5%4.4%5.4%Passengertransportbyroadandothertransportservices8.6%Passengertransportbybusandcoach14.1%2.1%2.9%2.8%7.1%4.3%3.7%5.2%5.6%8.3%PassengertransportbytaxiandhiredcarwithdriverPassengertransportbyair-2.3%0.3%1.7%2.1%7.2%7.8%2.7%4%-2%3.9%2.1%3.5%27.9%7.6%5%15.8%9.5%PassengertransportbyseaandinlandwaterwayRecreationalandculturalservicesPackageholidays3.7%6.4%11.7%18Description:In2023,theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)ofpassengertransportbyairintheUnitedKingdomrosebynearly16percentoverthepreviousyear.ThiswasthesharpestannualpriceincreaserecordedamongtheselectedtravelandtourismservicesintheUK.Meanwhile,holidaycenters,campingsites,youthhostels,andsimilaraccommodationservicesalsoreportedadramaticannualinflationratein2023,withtheCPIgrowingby13.4percentcomparedto2022.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;2019to2023;year-over-yearpercentagechangeSource(s):OfficeforNationalStatistics(UK)Consumerpriceindex(CPI)inflationrateoftravelandtourismservicesintheUnitedKingdom(UK)fromMaytoDecember2023CPIinflationrateoftravelandtourismservicesintheUK2023May

20239.3%Jun

20238.7%Jul

202310.8%5.3%5%Aug

20237.2%Sep

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20235.4%6.7%6.9%6%Nov

20233.23%5.3%5%Dec

20233%TransportservicesPassengertransportbyrailwayPassengertransportbytrain6.9%6.6%5.4%6.3%4.4%3.8%6%7.1%6.5%5.1%6.4%Passengertransportbyundergroundandtram6.6%6.6%6%6%6%6%Passengertransportbyroadandothertransportservices5.1%4.9%6.1%5.2%5.2%5.5%5%3.2%Passengertransportbybusandcoach4.5%9.5%4%6.5%8.8%5.5%4.8%6.7%7.6%8.8%6.8%7.5%6.7%0.3%6.9%Passengertransportbytaxiandhiredcarwithdriver8.9%Passengertransportbyair31.4%6.4%26.7%11.4%29.8%14.4%12%14.9%11.5%7.9%9.9%3.3%8.5%0.8%5.9%Passengertransportbyseaandinlandwaterway11.1%Recreationalandculturalservices4.5%4.4%4.4%3.7%4%4.2%3.2%4.1%19Description:InDecember2023,theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)ofholidaycenters,campingsites,youthhostels,andsimilaraccommodationservicesintheUnitedKingdomroseby17.8percentoverthepreviousyear.ThiswasthesharpestpriceincreaserecordedamongtravelandtourismservicesintheUKthatmonth.Meanwhile,theCPIofcanteensdeclinedby7.4percentinthesameperiod.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;MaytoDecember2023;year-over-yearpercentagechangeSource(s):OfficeforNationalStatistics(UK)MainbarrierstotakinganovernightdomestictripoverthefollowingsixmonthsamongadultsintheUnitedKingdom(UK)asofNovember2023MainbarrierstotakingovernightdomestictripsamongadultsintheUK2023Shareofrespondents0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%RisingcostoflivingUKweather36%33%Personalfinances28%26%Risingcostsofholidays/leisureThecostoffuel16%16%MygeneralhealthNone/Nobarriers15%14%LimitedavailableannualleaveIwouldn’ttakeaUKshortbreakorholidayinthenextsixmonthsregardlessofthe10%circumstancesDifficultygettingmoneybackifatripiscancelled7%20Description:AccordingtoaNovember2023study,therisingcostoflivingwasconsideredthemainbarriertoovernightdomestictripsoverthefollowingsixmonthsamongadultsintheUnitedKingdom.Overall,36percentofthesurveysamplementionedthisissueasthemainobstacletodomestictrips.Meanwhile,33percentofrespondentsindicatedtheUKweather.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;September1to7,2023;1,755respondents;16yearsandolderSource(s):BVABDRC;VisitBritainShareofadultswhobelievedthattherisingcostoflivingmayhaveanimpactonholidaydecisionsintheUnitedKingdom(UK)asofDecember2023,byagegroupShareofBritonsthinkingthatcostoflivingmightimpactholidayplans2023,byageCostoflivingCostofholidays100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%88%87%84%74%73%53%53%49%45%41%16-24years25-34years35-44years45-54years55yearsandolder21Description:AccordingtoaDecember2023study,roughlyeightintensurveyedBritonsbelievedthattherisingcostoflivingmightimpacttheirvacationplans.While88percentofrespondentsaged35to44reportedthinkingthatinflationcouldinfluenceholidayplanning,around74percentofinterviewedBritonsaged45to54statedthesame.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;November30toDecember4,2023;1,279respondents;16yearsandolderSource(s):Deloitte;Kantar;ServiceScience;TravelWeeklyMainresponsestotackletheimpactofcostoflivingonholidaysintheUnitedKingdom(UK)asofDecember2023Britons'mainresponsestotheimpactofcostoflivingonvacations202370%62%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%57%52%49%44%HolidayoutsidepeakperiodBookcheaperflights/travelTakefewerholidays/breaks

BookcheaperaccommodationReducenightsaway22Description:ADecember2023studylookedattheBritons'mainresponsestotackletherisingcostoflivingwhenplanningaholiday.While62percentofthesurveysamplereportedintendingtotraveloutsidepeakperiods,44percentofrespondentsmentionedreducingthenumberofnightsspentonvacation.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedKingdom;November30toDecember4,2023;1,279respondents;16yearsandolderSource(s):Deloitte;Kantar;ServiceScience;TravelWeeklyCHAPTER

04ImpactonglobalbusinesstravelMostsignificantissuesfacedbybusinesstravelaccordingtotravelsuppliersworldwideasofJanuary2024Mainissuesforbusinesstravelaccordingtotravelsuppliersworldwide2024Shareofrespondents0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%RisingcostsoftravelOveralleconomicconcerns57%47%CorporatebudgetsnotkeepingpacewithneedsTechnologyadvancements/artificialintelligenceGeo-politicalconcerns44%27%25%23%TraveldisruptionsClimateimpact/sustainabilityconcernsRemoteworkandhybridofficerules20%17%Workforcehiring/retention12%Concernsoffrequenttravelers(suchasentitlements,upgrades,andwell-being)Meeting&eventspaceavailabilityandeaseofbookingTravelerconfidence/willingnesstotravelPassport/Visaprocessingtimesand/ordelaysPandemicconcerns6%6%4%3%1%24Description:AccordingtoaJanuary2024globalstudy,roughlysixintensurveyedbusinesstravelsuppliersconsideredtherisingcostsoftravelthemostsignificantissuefacedbybusinesstravel.Meanwhile,47percentofthesamplementionedoveralleconomicconcernsasthemainissuefor2024.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January9to22,2024;242respondents;travelsuppliersandemployeesoftravelmanagementcompaniesSource(s):GBTAMostsignificantissuesfacedbybusinesstravelaccordingtotravelmanagersworldwideasofJanuary2024Mainissuesforbusinesstravelaccordingtotravelmanagersworldwide2024Shareofrespondents0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%RisingcostsoftravelOveralleconomicconcerns74%48%CorporatebudgetsnotkeepingpacewithneedsTraveldisruptions40%38%Geopoliticalconcerns18%18%Climateimpact/sustainabilityconcern