全球运输排放行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

POLITICS

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SOCIETYTransportationemissionsworldwideCHAPTER

01OverviewAnnualgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsworldwidefrom1990to2022,bysector(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)GlobalGHGemissions1990-2022,bysectorWasteBuildingsProcessesFuelExploitationAgricultureIndustrialCombustionTransportPowerIndustry60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,00003Description:Theglobalpowerindustryhasconsistentlybeenthebiggestoverallcontributortoglobalgreenhousegasemissionsforthemorethan30years.In2022,thepowerindustryproduced15GtCO₂e,whichwasalmostdoubletheemissionsoftheglobaltransportationsector.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));IEA;VarioussourcesDistributionofgreenhousegasemissionsworldwidein2021,bysubsectorShareofglobalgreenhousegasemissions2021,bysubsectorShareofemissions0%5%10%15%20%25%Coal(electricity)RoadtransportationOtherindustriesGas(electricity)Livestock21%12%7%7%7%Oil&gasproductionCrops6%6%Iron&steel5%5%CementChemicals4%4%4%Landfills&wasteResidentialbuildingsCoalmining2%4Description:Globalnetgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswere50.1billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂e)in2021.ThelargestoverallcontributortoglobalGHGemissionsthatyearwascoal-firedelectricity,with21percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021;Basedontotalemissionsof50.1GtCO₂e;*Agriculturefuelcombustionemissionsaccountedforlessthanonepercent.Figuresmaynottotal100percentduetorounding.

ReadmoreSource(s):RhodiumGroupDistributionofcarbondioxideemissionsworldwidein2022,bysectorGlobaldistributionofCO₂emissions2022,bysectorFuelexploitation6.6%Industrialprocesses8.4%Agriculture0.4%Powerindustry38.1%Buildings8.9%Industrialcombustion17%Transportation20.7%5Description:Thepowerindustrywasbyfarthebiggestcontributortoglobalcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsin2022,accountingforroughly38percent.Thetransportationsectorwasresponsibleforthesecond-largestshareofꢀglobalCO₂emissionsthatyear,atjustover20percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;Basedonatotalof38.52GtCO₂Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023))Distributionoftransportationsectorcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsworldwidein2022,bymajoreconomyGlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissionsshares2022,bymajoreconomyUnitedStates21.6%Restofworld*45.9%China11%EU-279.7%India3.8%Brazil2.0%Russia3.1%Japan2.3%6Description:TheUnitedStatesaccountedforalmostaquarterofglobaltransportation-relatedCO₂emissionsin2022,makingitthebiggestemitterwithinthissectorbyfar.TheUnitedStates,togetherwithChinaandtheEuropeanUnion,wereresponsibleforroughly42percentofglobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissionsin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;Basedonemissionsof7.97GtCO₂.*IncludesinternationalaviationandinternationalnavigationSource(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));CHAPTER

02EnergyconsumptionOilconsumptionworldwidefrom1998to2022(in1,000barrelsperday)Globaloilconsumption1998-2022120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,00001998

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20228Description:Oilconsumptionworldwidereachedapproximately97.3millionbarrelsperdayin2022.Thiswasanincreaseofaroundthreepercentincomparisontothepreviousyear,whenglobaloilconsumptionexperiencedadropasaresultofthepandemic-enforcedmobilityrestrictionswhich,inturn,ledtoadeclineintransportationfueldemand.Apartfromtheyearsofthefinancialcrisisandthe2020coronaviruspandemic,oilconsumptionconsecutivelyincreasedineveryyearsince1998.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1998to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGDistributionofoildemandintheOECDin2022,bysectorOildemandshareintheOECD2022bysectorShareofdemand0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%RoadPetrochemicals49.24%12.12%Otherindustry10.89%Residential/commercial/agriculturalAviation8.5%7.41%Marinebunkers3.27%3.05%ElectricitygenerationRail&domesticwaterways1.53%9Description:RoadtransportationisthegreatestoildemandingsectorinOECD(OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)memberstates.In2022,49.24percentofalloilconsumedintheOECDwasrelatedtomotorvehicleusage.Bycomparison,thepetrochemicalsectorwhichmanufacturesplastics,resins,andotherpetroleum-basedproducts,onlymadeupaboutaneighthoftotaldemand.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):OPECConsumptionofpetroleumworldwidein2022,bycountry(inmillionmetrictons)Globalpetroleumconsumption2022,bycountryConsumptioninmillionmetrictons400

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60001002003007008009001,0001,100UnitedStatesChina998.9659.2India236.9SaudiArabiaRussiaJapanSouthKoreaBrazil166161.5146.1123.7109.198.2CanadaMexicoGermanyIran95.493.689.1Indonesia75.210Description:TheUnitedStatesisthelargestconsumerofpetroleumintheworld.In2022,thecountry'spetroleumconsumptionreachednearlyonebillionmetrictons.Thiscomparedtotheuseofsome659millionmetrictonsofpetroleuminChina.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*Restofworldrefersto178countries.ReadmoreSource(s):BGRDemandoutlookforselectedoilproductsworldwidefrom2021to2045(inmillionbarrelsperday)Globaloilproductsdemandoutlook2021-2045Diesel/gasoilGasolineEthane/LPGResidualfuelNaphthaJet/keroseneOtherproducts12010080604020020212025203020352040204511Description:Themajorityofoildemandisexpectedtobeaimedtowardslightproducts,suchasgasolineandethane.In2045,gasolinedemandisforecasttoclimbto27.6millionbarrelsperday.Bycomparison,dailydieselandgasoildemandisexpectedtoreach30.1millionbarrels,themostofanyoilproductlistedhere.Theconsumptionofliquidfuelswasseverelyimpactedbythecoronaviruspandemic,decliningbynearlytwentypercentinthespanoftwomonthsinearly2020.Asmanygovernments[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021Source(s):OPECCHAPTER

03GHGemissionsCarbondioxideemissionsfromthetransportationsectorworldwidefrom1970to2022(inbillionmetrictons)GlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissions1970-20229.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.013Description:Globaltransportation-relatedemissionstotaled7.97billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂)in2022.Thiswasanincreaseofsome4.7percentincomparisonto2021levels.Transportation-relatedCO₂emissionsworldwidehavesoaredoverthepast50years,risingfromjust2.8GtCO₂in1970.Between1990and2022,globaltransportationemissionsincreasedbymorethan70percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1970to2022;IncludesinternationalaviationandshippingSource(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023))Carbondioxideemissionsofthetransportationsectorworldwidefrom1990to2022,byregion(inmillionmetrictons)GlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissions1990-2022,byregionAsia-PacificEuropeNorthAmericaCentral&SouthAmericaMiddleEastAfricaCIS2,5002,0001,5001,000500014Description:TheSouth-Pacificregionproducedthemosttransportation-relatedcarbondioxideemissionsin2022,at2.1billionmetrictons(GtCO₂).Transportation-relatedemissionsincreasedacrossallregionsin2022,continuingtoreboundfromtheslumpsobservedin2020.ꢀNorthAmericahadhistoricallybeenthebiggestcontributortoglobaltransportationemissions,butwassurpassedbytheAsia-Pacificregionin2017.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.);IEA;Carbondioxideemissionsofthetransportationsectorworldwidein2022,byselectcountry(inmillionmetrictons)GlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissions2022,bycountryCO₂emissionsinmillionmetrictons800

1,00002004006001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000UnitedStatesChina1,720873India299RussiaBrazilJapan246211187179145CanadaMexicoGermanyIran144144143140IndonesiaSaudiArabiaFrance*11815Description:TheUnitedStatesisthebiggestcontributortoglobaltransportationemissionsbyfar.In2022,theU.S.transportationsectorreleased1.72billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂)intotheatmosphere.Thiswasroughly850MtCO₂morethanthesecond-largestcontributorChina.Intheyear2000,U.Stransportationemissionstotaled1.7GtCO₂,comparedwith248MtCO₂inChina.However,overthepasttwodecades,China'stransportationemissionshaveincreasedfour-fold

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*FrancedataincludesMonaco,ItalydataincludesSanMarinoandtheHolySee,andSpaindataincludesAndorra.Figureshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023))Carbondioxideemissionsfromthetransportationsectorworldwidefrom1990to2022,bycountryorregion(inmillionmetrictons)GlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissions1990-2022,bycountryUnitedStatesEU-27ChinaIndiaRussiaJapan2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200016Description:Foroverthreedecades,theUnitedStateshasproducedmoretransportationemissionsthananyothercountryacrosstheglobe.In2022,transportationemissionsintheUnitedStatesreached1.72billionmetrictons(GtCO₂),aslightincreasefromtheprevioiusyear.Meanwhile,theEuropeanUnionwasthesecond-largestcontributortoglobaltransportationemissionsupuntil2013,butin2014itdroppedbelowChina.TransportationemissionsintheEastAsiancountryhavesoaredoverthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023))Changeinannualcarbondioxideemissionsfromthetransportationsectorworldwidein2022,byselectcountryGlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissionschange2021-2022,bycountryPercentagechange10%0%5%15%20%25%MexicoIndonesiaUnitedKingdomAustraliaSaudiArabiaIndiaCanadaArgentinaItaly*BrazilTurkeySouthAfricaUnitedStates17Description:TransportationemissionsinMexicogrewbymorethan20percentin2022whencomparedto2021.Meanwhile,theUnitedKingdom'semissionsincreasedbysome9.5percent.Althoughemissionsgrewinmostcountries,China'stransportationCO₂emissionsdroppedbyaround5.8percentthatyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*FrancedataincludesMonaco.ItalydataincludesSanMarinoandtheHolySee.PercentchangecalculatedbySource(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023))ReadmorePercapitacarbondioxideemissionsofthetransportationsectorworldwidein2022,byselectcountry(inmetrictons)GlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissionspercapita2022,bycountryCO₂emissionsinmetrictonspercapita0123456UnitedStatesCanada5.134.52SaudiArabiaAustraliaSouthKoreaFrance3.943.912.081.791.721.72RussiaGermanyItaly1.6UnitedKingdomJapan1.571.5Mexico1.1Argentina1.0718Description:PercapitatransportationemissionsintheUnitedStatesaveraged5.13metrictonsofcarbondioxide(CO₂)in2022.U.S.transportationemissionswerethehighestworldwidein2022,at1.72billionmetrictonsofCO₂(GtCO₂).Chinawasthesecond-largestcontributortoglobaltransportationemissionsthatyear,havingreleased873GtCO₂intotheatmosphere.However,theaveragepersoninChinaemittedjust0.62metrictonsoftransportation-relatedCO₂.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));estimatesCHAPTER

04SegmentsCarbondioxideemissionsfromthetransportationsectorworldwidefrom2000to2022,bysubsector(inbillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide)GlobaltransportationsectorCO₂emissions2000-2022,bysubsectorRoadRailShippingAviationPipelinetransport98765432102000

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202220Description:Globaltransportation-relatedemissionsincreasedby3.2percentin2022tonearlyeightbillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂).Althoughemissionsfromtransportationhaveincreasedbyroughly870MtCO₂since2020,theyremainbelowpre-pandemiclevels.ꢀSince2000,globaltransportationemissionshaverisenbyalmost40percent,andnowaccountforaround20percentoftotalꢀglobalCO₂emissions.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2000to2022Source(s):IEADistributionofcarbondioxideemissionsproducedbythetransportationsectorworldwidein2022,bysubsectorBreakdownofCO₂emissionsinthetransportationsectorworldwide2022,bysubsectorDomesticaviation5%Bus6%Rail1%Internationalaviation6%Internationalshipping10%Carsandvans47%Mediumfreightvehicles9%Heavyfreightvehicles16%21Description:Theglobaltransportationsectorisamajorpolluter,producingmorethansevenbillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂)ayear.Carsandvanswerethebiggestsourceoftransportationemissionsthatyear,accountingforapproximately48percentofꢀglobaltransportationemissions.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*Figuresmaynottotal100%duetorounding.FigureshavebeencalculatedbySource(s):IEA;usingdataprovidedbythesource.Figureshavebeencompiledfrommultiplereports.Pipelinetransportisexcluded

ReadmoreCarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsfromcarsandvansworldwidefrom2010to2022(inbillionmetrictons)Light-dutyvehiclecarbondioxideemissionsworldwide2010-20224.03.613.593.553.533.53.483.423.53.02.52.01.53.313.273.23.173.14

3.132.0622/statistics/1388092/carbon-dioxide-emissions-cars-vans-transportIn2022,globalcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsfromcarsandvansgrewbyroughly1.4percentyear-on-yearto3.53billionmetrictons(GtCO₂).Despiteemissionsincreasingforthesecondconsecutiveyear,theyhavenotreturnedtopre-pandemiclevels.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2022Source(s):IEACarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsfrommediumandheavy-dutyfreighttrucksworldwidefrom2000to2022(inmillionmetrictons)Freighttruckcarbondioxideemissionsworldwide2000-2022,bytypeHeavyfreighttruckMediumfreightvehicles2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200023Description:In2022,globaldirectcarbondioxideemissionsfromheavyandmedium-dutytrucksincreasedby2.4percentto1.8billionmetrictons(GtCO₂).Althoughfreighttrucksrepresentasmallshareofvehicles,theywereresponsibleforroughly25percentofglobaltransportationCO₂emissionsin2022.ꢀHeavy-dutytrucksemittedroughlytwicetheamountofCO₂asmedium-dutytrucksin2022,at1.2GtCO₂.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2000to2022Source(s):IEALifecycleemissionsofcombustionandelectricvehiclesworldwidein2021,bystage(inmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)Globallifecycleemissionsofelectricandcombustionvehicles2021,bystageEmissionsintCO₂eProductionemissions0Usephaseemissions10

20Post-consumeremissions*30-10405060InternalcombustionenginevehicleHybridelectricvehicleBatteryelectricvehicle24Description:Batteryelectricvehiclesproducethelowestlifecycleemissionswhencomparedtoothervehicletypes.In2021,anaveragemedium-sizedbatteryelectricvehicle–ofover16yearsand240,000km–releasedatotalof30metrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(tCO₂e).Whileproductionemissionsforthistypeofvehiclewerehigherthanforhybridorinternalcombustionenginevehicles,usephaseemissionswereconsiderablyless.Ontheotherhand,internalcombustionengine[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021;Lifecycleemissionsforamedium-sizedvehicleover16yearsand240,000km.;*Post-consumeremissionsrepresentemissioncreditsassociatedwithrecyclingvehicles.

ReadmoreSource(s):Kearney(PolestarandRivianPathwayReport2023);VisualCapitalistCHAPTER

05OutlookProjectedfossilcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsworldwideunderacurrentpathwayscenariofrom2000to2030,bysector(inbillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide)GlobalfossilCO₂emissionsprojectionsbysector2000-2030OtherTransportationIndustryPower4540353025201510502000201020192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203026Description:Globalfossilfuelcarbondioxideemissionsareprojectedtopeakin2025atsome39billionmetrictons(GtCO₂)onacurrentglobalpathwayofannouncedpolicies,projects,industrytrends,andexpectedtechnologicaladvancements.Theywouldsteadilydeclineoverthefollowingyearsanddropto37.4GtCO₂by2030.Underthispathway,globalpowersectoremissionswouldpeakin2022andfalltolessthan13GtCO₂by2030.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;*Otherincludesbuildings,energy,waste,andcarbonnetcaptureimpact.ReadmoreSource(s):RystadEnergyProjectedtransportation-relatedgreenhousegasemissionsworldwidefrom2020to2050,byscenario(inbilliontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)GlobaltransportationGHGemissionpathways2020-2050,byscenarioBusinessasusualDoaswepromisedWeachievethegoal13.011.09.07.05.03.01.0202020252030203520402045205027Description:Withoutsubstantialtechnologicaladvancementsandstricterclimatepolicies,globalgreenhousegasemissionsfromtransportationareprojectedtoincreasebymorethan50percentby2050,relativeto2020levels,to11billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂e).ꢀAccordingtoWorldDataLab,transportationemissionswouldpeakbyaround2040inascenariowherecountriesfullyimplementtheNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)theymadetofightclimatechange.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020Source(s):WorldDataLabCarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsfromtransportationworldwidefrom2010to2022,andprojectionsintheNetZeroScenarioto2050,bymode(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide)GlobaltransportCO₂emissionsinthenetzeroscenario2010-2050,bymodeRoadAviationShipping8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00002010202120222030*2035*2040*2050*28Description:Globalroadtransportationemissionsreachedalmostsixbillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂)in2022.UndertheIEA'sNetZeroEmissions(NZE)by2050scenario,emissionsfromroadvehicleswouldneedtofalltobelow1.5GtCO₂by2040.Thispathwaywouldrequiretheaccelerateddeploymentofelectriccarsandotherlow-emissionsfuels.Overall,transportationCO₂emissionswouldneedtodropbelow600MtCO₂by2050.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2022Source(s):IEAProjectedcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsfrompassengercarsworldwideintheNetZeroScenariofrom2010to2050(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide)ProjectedpassengercarCO₂emissionsworldwideinthenetzeroscenario2010-20503,5002,9752,9303,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005002,6091,752916403370201020212022203020352040205029Description:Globalpassengercaremissionsreachedalmostthreebillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂)in2022.UndertheIEA'sNetZeroEmissions(NZE)by2050scenario,emissionsfrompassengercarswouldfalltobelow500MtCO₂by2040.Thispathwaywouldrequiretheaccelerateddeploymentofelectriccars.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2022Source(s):IEAProjectedcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionsfromheavy-dutytruckworldwideintheNetZeroScenariofrom2010to2050(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide)Projectedheavy-dutytruckCO₂emissionsworldwideinthenetzeroscenario2010-20502,0001,8121,7661,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008001,6101,4891,2848566004001782000201020212022203020352040205030Description:Globalheavy-dutytruckemissionsreachedalmosttwobillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂)in2022.UndertheIEA'sNetZeroEmissions(NZE)by2050scenario,emissionsfromheavy-dutytruckswouldfalltobelow900MtCO₂by2040.Thispathwaywouldrequiretheaccelerateddeployment