高盛-石油评论-国际能源署提升2025年供应但降低需求

12June2024|7:14AMEDT

OilComment:IEAUpgradesSupplybutDowngradesDemandfor2025

Takeaways

nTheIEAreportwasmodestlynegativeforoilpricesonnetwith:

oModestupgradestonon-OPECexRussiasupplyin2024and2025

oUnchangeddemandin2024andmodestlylowerdemandin2025

oRisinginventoriesbroadlyinlinewithourexpectations

n

TheIEAnudgedupitsforecastfornon-OPECexRussiasupplyinboth2024(+70kb/d)and2025(+81kb/d):

o2024productionwasraisedintheUS(+26kb/d)andGhana(+29kb/d)followingQ2upsidesurprises

o2025productionwasraisedinGhana(+27kb/d)andCanada(+23kb/d)

oTheIEAstillforecastsnon-OPECex-Russiasupplytoriseby1.1mb/din2024(vs.1.1mb/dGS)and1.4mb/din2025(vs.1.5mb/dGS)

n

TheIEAleftitsforecastforthe2024levelofglobaloildemandunchangedat103.2mb/d,reflectingoffsetsbetween:

oByyear:

nAnotherlargeupwardrevision(+145kb/d)tothelevelof2023demand,drivenbyChina(+182kb/d)

_

nA0.1mb/ddowngradeto2024demandgrowthto1.0mb/d(vs.1.2mb/dGS)

oByregion:

DaanStruyven

+1(212)357-4172|

daan.struyven@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

CallumBruce,CFA

+1(212)902-3053|

callum.bruce@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

YuliaZhestkovaGrigsby

+1(646)446-3905|

yulia.grigsby@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

BlakeWoods

+1(972)368-9739|

blake.woods@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

nOECDdowngradesintheUS(-55kb/d),Mexico(-103kb/d),andJapan(-56kb/d)followingQ2misses

nAChinaupgrade(+149kb/d)

oByproduct:

nAdowngradeformotorgasoline(-195kb/d)

nAnupgradeforLPGandethane(+179kb/d)

nTheIEAreduceditsforecastforthe2025levelofglobaloildemandby0.1mb/dto104.2mb/dreflectingdowngradesinOtherAfrica(-119kb/d),Mexico

(-109kb/d),andMiddleEast(-78kb/d)

nTheriseininventorieswasbroadlyinlinewithourexpectations:

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsOilComment

oGlobaloilinventoriesbuiltby19.3mbinAprilasonlandstocksrose

oPreliminaryglobaloilstockestimatesrosefurtherinMay

oOurOECDcommercialstocksnowcastwasroughlyunchanged

nTheIEAalsopublisheditsannuallonger-runoutlook“Oil2024”:

oTheIEAnudgesdownits2028globaldemandforecastby0.2mb/dto105.5mb/d,wellbelowthe107.1mb/dforecastfromourequityanalysts

oTheIEAforecastsglobaloildemandtopeakin2029,significantlyearlierthanthe2034forecastfromourequityanalysts

oTheIEAforecaststotalsupplycapacitytorisein2023-2030by6mb/dto113.8mb/dby2030,8mb/daboveprojectedglobaldemandof105.4mb/d

TheIEANudgedUpIts2025LevelforNon-OPECexRussiaSupplyby0.1mb/dbutNudgedDown2025WorldDemandby-0.1mb/d

IEAandGSOilSupplyandDemandOutlook(mb/d)

WorldSupply

Non-OPECex.RussiaSupplyTotalUS

Non-OPECLatamRussia

OPECCrudeSupplySaudiCrude

OPECCrudeex.SaudiWorldDemand

OECDDemandUS

OECDEurope

Non-OECDDemand

ChinaIndia

OtherNon-OECDAsia

_

Imbalance(=Supply-Demand)

Level

59.721.16.510.7

103.2

45.5

20.4

13.3

57.7

17.1

5.6

9.3

2024

IEAJuneOMR

YoYLevelRevision

1.10.10.70.00.30.0-0.30.0

1.00.0

-0.2-0.1

0.0-0.1

-0.20.0

1.10.20.50.10.20.00.30.0

GS

Level

102.7

59.5

21.1

6.6

10.7

27.0

9.0

17.9

103.0

45.8

20.6

13.3

57.2

16.4

5.7

9.3

-0.3

YoY

0.51.10.50.4-0.2-0.5-0.60.11.20.10.2-0.11.20.30.30.3-0.8

Level

61.121.76.910.8

104.2

45.3

20.4

13.2

58.9

17.5

5.8

9.5

2025

IEAJuneOMR

YoYLevelRevision

1.40.10.50.00.40.00.10.0

1.0-0.1

-0.1-0.2

0.00.0

-0.1-0.1

1.20.10.40.20.20.00.1-0.1

GS

Level

105.0

61.1

21.9

7.0

10.8

27.5

9.4

18.1

104.4

45.9

20.7

13.2

58.5

16.8

5.9

9.6

0.5

YoY

2.31.50.70.40.10.50.40.21.40.10.2-0.11.30.50.20.30.9

ForconsistencywiththeGSbalance,ourestimatesforUSethanolhavebeenaddedtoIEAtotalUSsupply.Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

12June20242

GoldmanSachsOilComment

Exhibit1:TheIEANudgedUpIts2025LevelforNon-OPECexRussiaSupplyby0.1mb/dbutNudgedDown2025WorldDemandby-0.1mb/d

IEAandGSOilSupplyandDemandOutlook(mb/d)

WorldSupply

Non-OPECex.RussiaSupplyTotalUS

Non-OPECLatamRussia

OPECCrudeSupplySaudiCrude

OPECCrudeex.SaudiWorldDemand

OECDDemandUS

OECDEurope

Non-OECDDemand

ChinaIndia

OtherNon-OECDAsia

Imbalance(=Supply-Demand)

Level

59.721.16.510.7

103.2

45.5

20.4

13.3

57.7

17.1

5.6

9.3

2024

IEAJuneOMR

YoYLevelRevision

1.10.10.70.00.30.0-0.30.0

1.00.0

-0.2-0.1

0.0-0.1

-0.20.0

1.10.20.50.10.20.00.30.0

GS

Level

102.7

59.5

21.1

6.6

10.7

27.0

9.0

17.9

103.0

45.8

20.6

13.3

57.2

16.4

5.7

9.3

-0.3

YoY

0.51.10.50.4-0.2-0.5-0.60.11.20.10.2-0.11.20.30.30.3-0.8

Level

61.121.76.910.8

104.2

45.3

20.4

13.2

58.9

17.5

5.8

9.5

2025

IEAJuneOMR

YoYLevelRevision

1.40.10.50.00.40.00.10.0

1.0-0.1

-0.1-0.2

0.00.0

-0.1-0.1

1.20.10.40.20.20.00.1-0.1

GS

Level

105.0

61.1

21.9

7.0

10.8

27.5

9.4

18.1

104.4

45.9

20.7

13.2

58.5

16.8

5.9

9.6

0.5

YoY

2.31.50.70.40.10.50.40.21.40.10.2-0.11.30.50.20.30.9

ForconsistencywiththeGSbalance,ourestimatesforUSethanolhavebeenaddedtoIEAtotalUSsupply.Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Supply

Exhibit2:GlobalOilSupplyWasRevisedUpby0.6mb/dinMarchto103mb/donUpgradesintheUS(219kb/d)andGuyana(120kb/d)

_

Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

12June20243

GoldmanSachsOilComment

Exhibit3:TheIEAUpgradedItsForecastof2024Non-OPECex.RussiaTotalLiquidsSupplyby0.1mb/donUpgradesinUSandGhana,WithYear-Over-YearGrowthat1.1mb/d

Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:TheIEALeftItsForecastof2024USTotalLiquidsSupplyLevelRoughlyUnchanged,WithYear-Over-YearGrowthat0.7mb/d

_

ForconsistencywiththeGSbalance,ourestimatesforUSethanolhavebeenaddedtoIEAtotalUSsupply.Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

12June20244

GoldmanSachsOilComment

Demand

Exhibit5:TheIEALeftItsForecastforthe2024GlobalOilDemandLevelUnchanged,ButNudgedDownDemandGrowthby0.1mb/dto1mb/dYoY

Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:TheIEADowngradedIts2024GlobalDemandLevelforMotorGasolineby-195kb/dbutUpgraded

2024LPG&Ethaneby179kb/d

kb/d

200

100

0

_

-100

-200

Total

Products

IEARevisionsto2024GlobalDemandLevelbyProduct

(June-MayOMR)

MotorGas/DieselResidualJetFuel&NaphthaOther

GasolineOilFuelOilKeroseneProducts

LPG&Ethane

kb/d

200

100

0

-100

-200

Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

12June20245

GoldmanSachsOilComment

Stocks

Exhibit7:OurOECDStocksNowcastWasRoughlyUnchangedFollowingtheIEAReport(ButRemainsSlightlyAboveOurBalance)

Source:IEA,Kpler,DOE,Euroilstocks,ARAPJK,PAJ,Haver,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

_

12June20246

GoldmanSachsOilComment

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,DaanStruyven,CallumBruce,CFA,YuliaZhestkovaGrigsbyandBlakeWoods,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

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BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

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Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdefinedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies

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12June20247

GoldmanSachsOilComment

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InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.

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ZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andinthe

UnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

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Thisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatwe

considerreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Theinformation,opinions,estimatesandforecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornotification.Weseektoupdateourresearchas

_

appropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst’sjudgment.

GoldmanSachsconductsaglobalfull-service,integratedinvestmentbanking,investmentmanagement,andbrokeragebusiness.WehaveinvestmentbankingandotherbusinessrelationshipswithasubstantialpercentageofthecompaniescoveredbyGlobalInvestmentResearch.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,theUnitedStatesbrokerdealer,isamemberofSIPC().

Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsandprincipal

tradingdesksthatreflectopinions