深度-瑞幸击败星巴克归来-彭博

/news/articles/2024-06-06/china-s-luckin-coffee-lkncy-is-back-and-beating-starbucks-sbuxByBloombergNews作者彭博新闻社2024年6⽉7⽇atGMT+806:002024年6⽉7⽇atGMT+806：00BookmarkSaveConsumersaregettinghookedoncheapcaffeinehitsandcoconutlattes,helpingthechainovercomeascandal消费者迷上了廉价的咖啡因和椰⼦拿铁，帮助该连锁店克服了丑闻Luckin’srecoveryshowsthere’sstillgrowthtobefoundinaneconomyotherwisegrapplingwithdeflationandapropertycrisis.Photographer:QilaiShen/Bloomberg瑞幸的复苏表明，在⼀个努⼒应对通货紧缩和房地产危AfterrevelationsofaccountingfraudatcoffeechainLuckinCoffeeemergedin2020,manybelieveditwasoverforthecompanyseenasChina’sanswertoStarbucks.在2020年咖啡连锁店瑞幸咖啡（LuckinCoffee）的会计欺诈⾏为被揭露后，许多⼈认为这家被视为中国对星巴克的回应的公司已经结束了。Today,Luckinhasnotonlysurvivedbutstagedanextraordinarycomebackasitscut-pricelattesattractagrowingnumberofcustomers,beatingStarbuckstobecomethecountry’sbiggestcoffeeretailerlastyear.OncederidedasacheapimitationoftheSeattle-basedgiant,it’snowbeingemulatedbyotherChinesechainsandevenStarbucksappearstohavetakenapageortwofromitsplaybook.吸引了越来越多的顾客，去年击败星巴克成为该国最⼤的咖啡零售商。它曾经被嘲笑为对这家总部位于西雅图⾄星巴克似乎也从它的剧本中汲取了⼀两页。Luckin’srecoveryshowsthere’sstillgrowthtobefoundinaneconomygrapplingwithdeflationandapropertycrisis.Italsopresentsalessononhowglobalgiants,ifnotcareful,canquicklyfindthemselvesonthebackfootintheworld’ssecond-largestconsumermarket--onethat’sbecomemorecomplexandlocalizedthaninthepreviouseraoffastandeasygrowth.瑞幸的复苏表明，在努⼒应对通货紧缩和房地产危机的费市场中处于劣势-这个市场⽐上⼀个快速轻松增长的时代变得更加复杂和本地化。ForZangZhongtang,theformerseniorvicepresidentatLuckin,itvalidatesagrowthstorythrownintodoubtbythecompany’sscandal.“Mostpeoplethoughtitwasgoingtodie,”saysZang,whoquitin2020althoughhewasn’tinvolvedinanywrongdoing.“Obviously,itwaswrongandunlawfultofabricatedata.Butyoustillhavetoacknowledgethegreatdesignthatwasitsbusinessmodel.”对于瑞幸集团前⾼级副总裁臧忠堂来说，这验证了⼀个因公司丑闻⽽受到质疑的增长故事。“⼤多数⼈都认为你仍然必须承认作为其商业模式的伟⼤设计。Thekeyplankofthatmodelislabor-savingautomationanddigitizationwhichcutdowncostsandturnaroundtime.Suchtech-enabledefficiencyisstillthedrivingforcebehindLuckin’srapidgrowthandabilitytoundercutStarbucks,saysthe46-year-oldZang.HenowworksatChina’sNaaSTechnologyInc.,anEV-chargingservicescompany.该模式的关键是节省劳动⼒的⾃动化和数字化，从⽽降仍然是瑞幸快速增长和削弱星巴克的能⼒背后的驱动TechnologyInc.⼯作。Thecompany’sfocusoncashless,takeoutkioskcounters,originallydesignedtosavecosts,paidoffduringtheCovidyearsasstrictlockdownpoliciesrestrictedin-personexchanges.Post-pandemic,thechain’s9.9-yuan($1.37)coffeeshavebecomeevenmorepopularamongyoungerChinesewhodon’thavethetimeorbudgettoloungeatStarbucks.Manyareaccustomedtogettingwhattheywantquickly,withridesharingcarsarrivinginminutesandgroceriesoftendeliveredwithinhalfanhour.该公司专注于⽆现⾦外卖亭柜台，最初是为了节省成本元⼈民币（1.37美元）咖啡在没有时间或预算在星巴克休息的年轻中国⼈中变得更加受欢迎。许多⼈习惯于快货通常在半⼩时内送达。Luckin’sRapidExpansionTheonce-disgracedChinesecoffeechaindethronedStarbucksasChina'sbiggestcoffee这家曾经声名狼藉的中国咖啡连锁店取代星巴克成为中国最⼤的咖啡店LuckinCoffeeStarbucksLocationswithbothLuckinandStarbucksCurrentstoresbyyearofopening215202431059507892202220202018MAIIIIIIINLANDCHIINAChengduChongqinigWuhanShanghaiGuangzhouSource:Geohey来源：GeoheyNote:DataasofMay11,2024Itsrecentgrowthtoover18,500stores,roughlydoublefromayearearlier,wasalsoledbyapushbeyondhuge,tier-1citieslikeShanghaiandShenzhenintothevasthinterlandwhereStarbuckshasn’tyetventured.ToenticegreaterswathesofChina’stea-drinkingpopulationtotrycoffee,Luckindevelopeddrinkscateringtolocalpreferencesforsweetandmilkybeverages.星巴克最近增长到超过18,500家门店，⽐⼀年前⼤约翻了⼀番，这也得益于星巴克从上海和深圳等⼤型⼀线城多的中国饮茶者尝试咖啡，瑞幸开发了迎合当地⼈对甜味和乳味饮料偏好的饮料。Luckinpinksheetshareshaverisenmorethan12timesfromtheirlowsfollowingthescandal,althoughthey’restill63%lowerthantheir2020highsonNasdaqandrecentlyweigheddownbyaquarterlylossonexpansioncostsandheavydiscounts.丑闻发⽣后，瑞幸粉单股价已从低点上涨了12倍以上，尽管仍⽐纳斯达克2020年的⾼点低63%，并且最近受到扩张成本和⼤幅折扣的季度亏损的拖累。StarbuckshasoftenshruggedoffLuckin’sthreat.AsrecentlyasJanuaryofthisyear,theUScompanyappearedtodismissLuckin’slowpricesasatemporaryphenomenon.“Youseeaninfluxofmass-marketcompetitorsfocusedonfaststoreexpansionandlow-pricetacticstodrivetrial.Thiswillshakeoutovertime,”BelindaWong,whooverseesStarbucksinChina,toldanalysts.家美国公司似乎将瑞幸的低价视为暂时现象。“你会看到⼤量⼤众市场竞争对⼿的涌⼊，他们专注于快速的商Wong告诉分析师。YetStarbuckshasbeguntostruggle.ForthequarterthroughMarch,salesinChinasank8%fromayearearlier,comparedwitha42%surgeatLuckin.AfteraslowdownintheUSandChina,italsoissuedaprofitwarningsoshockingthatfounderHowardSchultzweighedinfromretirement.Hissuggestionsincludedrevampingitsmobileorderingandpaymentsystem—Luckin'sstrongsuit.ChiefExecutiveOfficerLaxmanNarasimhantoldanalystsontheearningscallthatStarbuckswasplayingthe“longgame”inChina,andthecompanydeclinedtocommentfurtherforthisstory.⼈震惊的盈利警告，以⾄于创始⼈霍华德·舒尔茨括改进其移动订购和⽀付系统——这是瑞幸的强项。星巴克⾸席执⾏官LaxmanNarasimhan在财报电话会议公司拒绝就此事发表进⼀步评论。PrivateEquityBacking私募股权投资Luckin’srecoverymaynothavebeensoeasy,orevenpossible,withoutthebackingofprivateequityfundCenturiumCapital,whichdoubleddownonitsinvestmentratherthanbackoutfollowingnewsofthefraudulentaccounting.Thefundsteppedinwith$240millionin2021tohelpLuckinwithmountinglegalfeesandfines.如果没有私募股权基⾦CenturiumCapital的⽀持，瑞幸2021年投⼊了2.4亿美元，以帮助瑞幸⽀付不断增加的法律费⽤和罚款。LuZhengyaoduringthecompany'sIPOattheNasdaqMarketSiteinNewYorkin2019.Photographer:VictorJ.Blue/Bloomberg期间。CenturiumChairmanDavidLi’sadmirationforLuckinfounderLuZhengyao,whoserentalcarstartupCARInc.he’dpreviouslyinvestedin,waswidelyknown.YetLialsodecidedthatLuckinneededtobreakoffitsrelationshipwithLutostemthecrisis,accordingtosourcesfamiliarwiththesituationatthetime.⼤钲董事长李⼤伟对瑞幸创始⼈陆正耀的钦佩⼴为⼈据当时熟悉情况的消息⼈⼠透露，李也认为瑞幸需要断绝与卢的关系，以阻⽌危机。LireplacedthecharismaticentrepreneurwithGuoJinyi,oneofLu’sfewlieutenantswhohadn’tfollowedhimout.Centuriumsentinitsownteam,closingdownunderperformingstoresandhiringexecutivestokeeptheremainingonesrunningsmoothly.ItalsohelpedLuckinincorporateafranchisesystem,allowingittoopenmorestoreseasily.李⽤郭锦⼀取代了这位魅⼒四射的企业家，郭锦⼀是陆郭为数不多的没有跟着他出去的副⼿之⼀。Centurium了特许经营系统，使其能够轻松开设更多门店。LuckinemergedfrombankruptcyinAprilof2022,just14monthsafterfilingforprotection.InMay,GuoproclaimedtoinvestorsthatLuckin“hasbeenrebornandisessentiallyanewcompany.”(CenturiumbecameLuckin’scontrollingshareholderandLunolongerownssharesinthecompany.)东，卢不再拥有该公司的股份。WhileLuckinhasdistanceditselffromLu,whohassincestartedarivalcoffeechaincalledCotti,industryinsidersandformerexecutiveslikeZangsayitsoriginal,digital-savvymodelisstillgivingitanedgeovercompetitors.LuhadbroughtinprogrammersfromCAR,anditsdigital-centricinfrastructuremadeitmoreofane-commercecompanythanatraditional,bricks-and-mortarfoodretailer,analystssay.虽然瑞幸已经与卢保持距离，后者后来创办了⼀家名为Cotti的竞争对⼿咖啡连锁店，但业内⼈⼠和臧等前⾼管表⽰，其原始的、精通数字的模式仍然使其⽐员，其以数字为中⼼的基础设施使其更像是⼀家电⼦商务公司，⽽不是传统的实体⾷品零售商。“Luckinwastryingtocreateanewretailmodelwithaninternetmindset,”saysBernieGao,ananalystatmarketresearchfirmMintel.“瑞幸正试图⽤互联⽹思维创造⼀种新的零售模式，”市场研究公司英敏特（Mintel）的分析师伯尼·⾼（BernieGao）说。Fromthestart,Luckin’ssmartphoneappcutdownwaittimesforconsumers,whilealsoprovidingthecompanyaccesstovaluabledataonconsumerbehaviorandpreferences,helpingittoimproveserviceandtodevelophitproducts.Thecompanyalsousedittomountaggressivecouponcampaignstokeepluringcustomersback.从⼀开始，瑞幸的智能⼿机应⽤程序就减少了消费者的等待时间，同时也为公司提供了有关消费者⾏为和偏好还⽤它来开展积极的优惠券活动，以吸引客户回来。Towinbackcustomers,Starbuckshasrecentlybegungivingoutdiscountcouponsmorefrequently,accordingtolocalcustomers.Photographer:QilaiShen/Bloomberg博社StarbucksstoresinChinahavesincebegunofferingmobileorderingservices.ButLuckinwentbeyondjusttakingcustomerordersonline,implementingautomationanddigitalmanagementthroughoutitssystemtodetectanddispatchorders,forexample,whencertainingredientsarerunninglow.瑞幸不仅仅是在线接受客户订单，⽽是在整个系统中实些原料不⾜时。Stilltoday,thisdigitizedsystemenablesstorestorunonasmallnumberofstaff,controllingoverheadcosts.Withfewcomplicatedprocessestolearn,newjoinerscanusuallybetrainedwithintwotothreedayscomparedwiththeweeksitcantakeforthosedonningStarbucks’greenaprons,accordingtoindustryexperts.习的流程很少，新员⼯通常可以在两到三天内接受培训，⽽那些穿上星巴克绿⾊围裙的⼈可能需要⼏周时BobaandCoconutLattes波巴椰⼦拿铁Luckin’slatestgrowth,though,isn’tjustaboutautomationordiscounts.Frequentlaunchesofinventivedrinkslikebrownsugarbobalatte,atakeonTaiwanesebubbletea,havealsohelpedtobolstersales.不过，瑞幸的最新增长不仅仅是⾃动化或折扣。红糖波霸拿铁（台湾珍珠奶茶）等创意饮料的频繁推出也有助于提振销售。Coconutlatte,acombinationofcreamy,coconut-flavoredmilkwithcoffeelaunchedinApril2021,hasbeenitsbiggesthitsofar,accountingforaround70%ofsalesatsomestores.Withadenseandvelvetymouthfeel,it’sprovenaparticularhitwiththosewhoaren’tfansofespressosorAmericanos—asizeableportionofChineseconsumersandademographicLuckinknewitneededtowinovertoexpandthroughoutthecountry.椰⼦拿铁是2021年4⽉推出的奶油椰奶和咖啡的组那些不喜欢浓缩咖啡或美式咖啡的⼈的特别欢迎——这是中国消费者的相当⼀部分，瑞幸知道它需要赢得他们的青睐才能在全国范围内扩张。Itsmenualsolistsconcoctionslikesaltycreamcheeseandtealatte.New,limited-timeitemsareintroducedperiodicallytodrumupinterest,especiallyonsocialmedia.Lastyear’slaunchofanalcohol-infusedlatteproducedincollaborationwithChinesespiritsbrandKweichowMoutaiCo.createdabuzzonplatformslikeTikTokandXiaohongshu,China’sequivalentofInstagram.它的菜单还列出了咸奶油奶酪和拿铁茶等混合物。定期推出新的限时商品以激发⼈们的兴趣，尤其是在社交媒酒精浸泡拿铁在TikTok和⼩红书（相当于中国的Instagram）等平台上引起了轰动。ALuckinCoffeestoreinShanghai.Photographer:QilaiShen/Bloomberg上海瑞幸咖啡店摄影：沈启来/彭博社“Luckinhasmanagedtofindawaytolaunchthesehititemsthatrespondtowhatpeoplewant,leveragingitsdeepinsightintothelocalconsumermindset,”saidDaveXie,retailandconsumergoodspartneratOliverWyman.奥纬咨询零售和消费品合伙⼈DaveXie表⽰：“瑞幸凭借其对当地消费者⼼态的深刻洞察，成功找到了⼀种⽅法来推出这些热门产品，以满⾜⼈们的需求。That’salsohelpedtoshiftLuckin’sstatusfromalow-costimitatortoatrend-setterandmarketleaderinitsownright.Asaresult,someconsumershavebeguntoquestionpayingStarbucksprices.这也有助于瑞幸从低成本模仿者转变为潮流引领者和市格。“Iwon’tpayforgoodsthatarewayoverpriced,especiallywhenthejobmarketisthisbad,”saysWencyDeng,aShenzhen-based35-year-oldofficeworkerwhohasn’tbeenbacktoStarbucksinfiveyears.Besides,shesays,Luckin’scoconutlatte“justtastesreallygood.”“我不会为价格过⾼的商品买单，尤其是在就业市场如拿铁“味道真的很好”。SamePlaybook相同的剧本Towinbackcustomers,Starbuckshasrecentlybegungivingoutdiscountcouponsmorefrequently,accordingtoanalystsandlocalcustomers,evenasthecompanysaysit’snotinterestedinenteringapricewar.ItalsorolledoutitsownversionofbobadrinksintheUS,whereit’salsoencounteringaslowdown.始更频繁地发放折扣券，尽管该公司表⽰对打价格战不⾥它也遇到了放缓。Luckin,however,facesagrowingnumberofhomegrowncompetitorsincludingKFC-operatedKCoffeewhichsellscupsofcoffeeforaslowas5yuantothosebuyingmonthlydiscountcards.然⽽，瑞幸⾯临着越来越多的本⼟竞争对⼿，包基经营的KCoffee，它以低⾄5元的价格向购买⽉度折扣卡的⼈出售咖啡杯。Thesedays,itsbiggestthreatmaybeCotti,whichwasstartedbyLuin2022andalreadyhas7,000storesnationwide.ThecompanyappearstobeusingtheoriginalLuckinplaybookbyexpandingthroughcash-burningmarketingcampaigns,analystssay.Brazenly,itsshopsdisplaybannerssaying“Luckin’sfounderstreatyoutocoffee.”Sinceearlylastyear,it’sbeenofferingsomedrinksforaslowas8.8yuan.公司似乎正在使⽤瑞幸的原始剧本，通过烧钱的营销活“瑞幸的创始⼈请你喝咖啡”。从去年年初开始，它⼀直在提供⼀些低⾄8.8元的饮料。Tofightback,Luckinlastyearlaunchedaweeklycouponallowingcustomerstobuysomeofitspopulardrinks,includingthosenormallypricedat20yuan,for9.9yuan—onefactorbehinditsfirstquarterlyloss为了反击，瑞幸去年推出了每周优惠券，允许顾客以9.9元的价格购买⼀些受欢迎的饮料，包括通常售价为的⼀个因素。TakeawaycoffeecupsareshownwithrecentpricesoflattesfromeachofthefourstoresinChina.Fromleft:KCoffee(10.9yuanfor12oz),Luckin(11.02yuanfor16oz),Starbucks(33yuanfor16oz)andCotti(9.9yuanfor12oz).Photographer:QilaiShen/Bloomberg外卖咖啡杯展⽰了中国四家门店拿铁咖啡的近瑞幸（16盎司11.02元）、星巴克（16盎司33来/彭博社JessicaGleeson,aformerStarbucksChinaexecutivewhonowrunsherownconsultancyinShanghaiforretailers,saysthereshouldberoomformultipleplayersinthelongrun.Thecountry’scoffeeretailmarkethasgrownseven-foldsinceLuckinwasfoundedin2017andisexpectedtodoubleoverthenextfouryears,accordingtobeverageanalysts.Luckinhashelpedtransformcoffeefromadrinkforspecialoccasionsintoamorningritual,shesaid,andthisshift“willbenefitallcoffeechainsinChina.”前星巴克中国⾼管杰西卡·格⾥森（JessicaGleeson）现在在上海经营着⾃⼰的零售商咨询公司，她表⽰，从长从特殊场合的饮料转变为早晨的仪式，这种转变“将使中国的所有咖啡连锁店受益”。“Justlikethere’sroominthefashionmarketforUniqlo,ZaraandPrada,inacountryof1.3billionpeoplethere’splentyofroomforeachoftheleadingcoffeebrandstowintheircategory,”shesays.“就像优⾐库、Zara和Prada在时尚市场上有空间⼀样，在⼀个拥有13亿⼈⼜的国家，每个领先的咖啡品牌都有⾜够的空间赢得他们的类别，”她说。Fornow,analystssayLuckinismaintaininganedgeoverCotti.China’seconomicslowdownmeansLuwouldfinditdifficulttoraisethekindoffunding—eitherfromprivateequityorfromthepublic—thathemanagedtodowhileatLuckin.济放缓意味着卢晓波很难像他在瑞幸期间那样从私募股权或公众那⾥筹集资⾦。Toensureitmakesthemostofitslead,Luckinrecentlyopenedanew,$120millioncoffeeroastingplantinKunshan,anindustrialhubnearShanghai.Withanannualproductioncapacityof30,000tons,it’sCh