高盛-半导体行业~存储器到2026年HBMTAM将达到300亿美元2023~2026年复合年增率约为100%；上调海标价并重申买（评级为买入）-240527

们将2024E/2025E/2026EHBMTAM预测从130亿美元/190亿美元/230亿美元上调16%/24%/31%至150亿美元/230亿美元/300亿美元。占据份额；3)美光的HBM整体收入将从2025年起超过同行,并显示出最明显的市场份额增长（从较低的分别较预期分别上涨16%/24%/31%，从12022HBM总需求（千GB）同比变化训练中的HBM需求（000GB）AI训练服务器数量（千台）每GPUHBM内容(GB)同比变化库存缓冲（%）推理的HBM需求（000GB）AI推理服务器数量（KHBM附着率每GPUHBM内容(GB)同比变化库存缓冲（%）10.8平均HBMASP（美元/GB）同比变化10.82,333HBMTAM（百万美元）2,3332023343,29259%269,4362728055%73,8559380%5355%11.56%3,93869%2024年1,230,837259%942,70355813265%60%288,13425179%7643%60%12.16%14,939279%2025年1,899,46654%1,436,87187217230%20%462,59553670%8613%20%12.31%23,28556%2026年2,709,68343%1,938,87198121123%17%770,81288065%9612%17%11.2‑9%30,22730%2024年5月27日2HBM3HBM3E发展201420152019202120232025生产201520162020202220242025芯片密度2GB8GB16GB16GB24GB24GB堆4嗨4高/8高4高/8高8高/12高8高/12高12高/16高容量1GB4GB/8GB8GB/16GB16GB/24GB24GB/36GB36GB/48GB最大数据处理速度128GB/秒307GB/秒460GB/秒819GB/秒1.15TB/秒2.0TB/秒2024年5月27日3AMDAWSH200,GH200HBM3EA100MI300XMI300A高迪3高迪2TPUv6TPUv5TPUv4TPUv3HBM3EHBM3EHBM3E‑3802024年5月27日4HBM行业收入按代数划分52%2024年5月27日5SKHynix(000GB)同比变化每12英寸晶圆的混合芯片数量HBM晶圆投产(kwpm/月)同比增长(%)混合单芯片密度(Gb)DRAM总供应量（000GB）HBM比例(%)每12英寸晶圆的混合芯片数量HBM晶圆投产(kwpm/月)同比增长(%)混合单芯片密度(Gb)DRAM总供应量（000GB）HBM比例(%)美光(000GB)同比变化美光隐含份额（%）DRAM总供应量（000GB）HBM比例(%)HBM供应/需求2022108,063450247,031,2501.5%92,93645010,406,2500.9%15,0007%5,185,0680.3%215,999215,9990.0%2023179,95267%44543%8,001,2502.2%135,14545%44545%11,678,1251.2%17,50017%5%5,693,3350.3%332,59754%343,292 59%‑3.1%2024年712,970296%44590169%9,614,3327.4%432,124220%44595157%13,855,5783.1%53,000203%4%7,153,3560.7%1,198,095260%1,230,837259%‑2.7%2025年986,70038%44011528%2011,690,7318.4%742,50072%44012532%2016,022,7504.6%135,000155%7%8,223,8731.6%1,864,20056%1,899,46654%‑1.9%2026年1,336,45535%44013517%2313,794,8049.7%1,088,20847%44015020%2319,071,9875.7%26万93%10%10,148,8742.6%2,684,66344%2,709,68343%‑0.9%2024年5月27日6202220232024年2025年2026年215,999343,2921,230,8371,899,4662,709,68359%259%54%43%平均HBMASP（美元/GB）同比变化10.811.512.112.311.26%6%1%‑9%HBMTAM（百万美元）2,3333,93814,93923,28530,22769%279%56%30%HBM收入1,1822,1289,00813,09515,838化80%323%45%21%海力士DRAM收入（百万美元）22,30715,90033,28149,36748,913HBM比例(%)5.3%13.4%27.1%26.5%32.4%1,0071,6035,2408,40011,20159%227%60%33%三星DRAM收入（百万美元）32,49620,85938,46652,85755,304HBM比例(%)3.1%7.7%13.6%15.9%20.3%1432076911,7903,18944%234%159%78%美光DRAM收入（百万美元）19,62711,57620,40327,65231,513HBM比例(%)0.7%1.8%3.4%6.5%10.1%HBM收入月率海力士HBM市场份额51%54%60%56%52%SECHBM市场份额43%41%35%36%37%美光HBM市场份额6%5%5%8%11%40%40%海力士2024米/秒海力士2025米/秒2024年5月27日7AMD和美国/中国的超大规模制造商HBM32024年5月27日842%我们将海力士2024/2025/2026年HBM收入预测分别上调18%/26%/29%至2024年5月27日9海力士12mFWDP/B35%30%5.4%3.4%无24.0%29.0%23.2%21.7%0.0X‑20%2.32.11.91.71.51.31.10.90.70.52023年40%三星电子SK海力士0.50.422%‑16%0.473%43547117%8%43547117%8%2024年5月27日10(WBN)销售量NAND 其他的营业利润NAND其他的营业利润率(%)NAND其他的税前利润净利修改上一页2Q24EFY24EFY25EFY26E2Q24EFY24EFY25EFY26E2Q24EFY24EFY25EFY26E16,15267,11482,69283,15015,44564,50075,87278,7794.6%5.5%10,32644,27860,22859,6749,88442,47954,40856,3394.5%5.9%5,25820,48019,83220,5444,99319,66618,83219,5085.3%5.3%5682,3562,6322,9325682,3562,6322,9320.0%0.0%5,39522,51232,36128,6364,49318,97227,03325,69820.1%18.7%19.7%11.4%4,53920,55332,08328,3134,07618,25127,51425,56116.6%10.8%33.4%33.5%39.1%34.4%29.1%29.4%35.6%44.0%46.4%53.3%47.4%41.2%43.0%50.6%16.2%9.6%1.0%1.1%8.2%3.7%‑3.0%1.0%‑0.2%3.2%3.5%1.0%‑0.2%3.2%5,14821,39031,94828,5224,24717,83926,57125,47821.2%19.9%20.2%11.9%％‑改变4.1%9.0%4.2%10.7%4.1%5.3%0.0%0.0%11.3%12.6%35106.8%170.9%0.0%1030.0%0.0%32.6％45.4％ 0.2%3.5％3,80715,98323,62921,0943,14013,35619,65118,84221.2%19.7%20.2%12.0%5,53323,22834,34030,6564,56319,41028,55827,38321.2%19.7%20.2%12.0%2024年5月27日11我们将SEC2024/2025/2026年HBM收入预期上调8%/12%/20%至7.0万亿韩元/10.2的HBM营业利润对SEC2024/2025/2026年总营业利润的贡献为6%/7%/8%。2024年5月27日122024/2025/2026年总OP为6%/7%/8%。SECHBM业务收入/OP贡献9%8%7%6%5%3%2%1%0%5.8%0.8%3.1%4.0%2024年5月27日DS（设备解决方案）半导体记忆NAND显示屏LCD及其他MX（移动体验）移动的手机药片设备及其他CE（消费电子）画面显示家电及其他哈曼营业利润DS（设备解决方案）半导体记忆NAND显示屏MX（移动体验）移动的手机药片设备及其他CE（消费电子）画面显示家电及其他哈曼营业利润率(%)DS（设备解决方案）半导体记忆NAND显示屏MX（移动体验）移动的手机药片修改上一页修改上一页21.1684.9120.875.6%67.4732.9235.2612.4551.2121.1684.9120.875.6%67.4732.9235.2612.4551.2112.347.7％29.4933.2830.598.5232.928.342.1%31.8130.5931.815.9824.275.980.0%6.5729.456.570.0%6.5729.456.570.0%83.5050.3432.3824.2729.4529.4592.5659.4932.2329.4930.5930.5962.6734.5233.2831.8131.8128.15122.84119.8928.15122.84119.89122.670.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%27.23119.20115.58117.850.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%122.8428.15119.2027.2321.1495.124.2516.771.847.310.933.6414.3357.797.5231.576.813.848.625.244.775.353.651.70(0.59)0.460.462.562.422.1021.1494.424.25 1.84 0.9314.33 7.52 6.813.848.184.774.294.873.341.52(0.58)0.470.472.582.442.130.060.260.140.540.410.140.3292.5994.4216.0516.366.947.064.324.8258.2760.4730.8832.2427.3928.2215.3516.1661.4464.3944.7446.8639.9241.8137.2837.9630.5929.716.678.232.643.854.785.014.785.0112.470.250.960.990.680.773.143.411.962.1316.77 7.31 3.6457.7931.5726.2115.3141.4425.9721.3522.5316.915.60(1.17) 4.59 4.5911.9311.3810.16 0.22 1.00 0.55 2.38 1.83 0.551.24 12.9212.2411.04 4.820.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%60.470.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%26.2142.2626.9222.3223.5117.466.0326.2142.2626.9222.3223.5117.466.03(1.19) 4.56 4.5611.8211.2710.05 0.22 1.00 0.55 2.36 1.81 0.551.240.060.260.140.540.400.140.3228.220.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.160.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%61.515.5%2.0%6.4%4.7%43.499.9%3.6%10.4%7.8%38.3511.1%4.5%12.1%9.0%34.449.9%4.4%13.3%10.2%26.379.1%3.3%15.6%12.6%8.0511.5%3.7%2.2%7.6%3.90‑2.1%‑5.10‑1.0%‑0.5%‑1.8%‑1.7%5.10‑1.0%‑0.5%‑1.8%‑1.7%13.37‑0.9%‑0.9%‑3.5%‑3.3%12.60‑0.9%‑1.0%‑3.7%‑3.5%11.37‑1.1%‑1.1%‑4.1%‑3.8%0.770.0%0..0%0.0%‑0.6%2.19‑2.9％‑3.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.290.0%0.0%0.0%1.350.0%11.6%13.6%18.7%18.7%11.1%13.4%17.9%18.2%15.5%19.4%28.3%27.8%14.3%18.9%26.5%26.6%17.6%20.4%31.2%30.5%16.0%19.8%29.2%29.2%25.3%27.7%37.9%36.6%23.3%27.0%35.6%35.1%29.3%34.1%47.4%44.0%27.1%33.6%44.5%42.1%20.0%18.3%20.3%23.4%18.3%17.3%20.0%23.3%7.1%15.5%15.6%15.8%7.1%15.6%15.9%16.0%7.1%15.5%15.6%15.8%7.1%15.6%15.9%16.0%9.1%9.6%10.4%10.5%9.2%9.7%10.8%10.9%8.9%9.5%10.2%10.3%9.0%9.5%10.6%10.7%9.9%10.6%11.4%11.6%10.1%10.7%11.9%12.0%14.0%13.6%13.8%14.0%14.0%13.6%13.8%设备及其他CE（消费电子）画面显示家电及其他哈曼税前利润净利15.0%15.2%15.8%15.9%15.0%15.2%15.8%15.9%3.8%5.4%2.0%8.3%9.326.931,0205.4%6.3%3.8%5.4%2.0%8.3%9.326.931,0205.4%6.3%4.3%8.2%5.6%6.6%4.6%8.4%4.1%5.7%2.1%8.1%46.6935.895,28366.5049.547,29369.9352.157,6777.271,0704.1%5.8%2.1%8.1%45.8735.265,1905.5%6.6%4.3%8.2%62.7746.716,8766.8%8.4%66.954.8%49.885.0%7,3435.0%5.9%6.1%6.1%2024年5月27日142024年5月27日152024年5月27日162024年5月27日172024年5月27日18调节交流电财务回报和倍数使用高盛分析师对至少未来三个季度财年末的预测。增长使用至少未来七个季度财年与至少未来三个季度财年相比的Quantum披露MicronTechnologyInc.的评级是相对于其覆盖范围内的其他公司：ARMHoldings、AdvancedMicroDevicesInc.、AmkorTechnologyInc.、AnalogDevicesInc.、AppliedMaterialsMarvellTechnologyInc.、MicrochipTechnologyInc.、MicronTechnologyInc.、NXPSemSkyworksSolutionsInc.、TeradyneInc.、TexasInstrumentsInc.和WesternDigitalCorp.。截至本报告前一个月末，高盛持有1%或以上的普通股2024年5月27日19高盛买全球的卖卖41%24年4月5日24年4月5日2024年5月27日2065,00077,00063,00074,00065,00075,00063,00064,00072,00065,00073,00074,00075,00078,00085,000SK海力士公司（000660.KS）225,000210,000185,00018万网站：/research/hedge.html。声明可在此处查阅：/disclosures/australia‑new‑zealand/index.html。巴西：与以下事项相关的披露信息CVM决议20可在/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html上查阅。如适用，巴西注册分析师主要2024年5月27日