摩根大通-发达国家金融市场战略指南0708

J.PMorgan

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

GlobalDevelopedMarketsStrategyDashboard

GlobalEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka,CFAAC

(44-20)7134-9741

mislav.matejka@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

NityaSaldanha,CFA

(44-20)7742-9986

nitya.saldanha@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

AnamilKochar,CFA

(91-22)61575179

anamil.kochar@

J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited

EMEquityStrategy

PedroMartinsJunior,CFAAC

(55-11)4950-4121

pedro.x.martins@BancoJ.P.MorganS.A.

PrabhavBhadani,CFA

(44-20)7742-4404

prabhav.bhadani@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

KarishmaManpuria,CFA

(91-22)61574115

karishma.manpuria@J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited

RajivBatra

(65)6882-8151

rajiv.j.batra@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimited

TableofContentsPage#

MarketsandGlobalSectorsPerformance2

KeyGlobalMarketsPerformance3

ProfitOutlook:

Changesin2024and2025EPSForecasts

byCountry/Region4

Changesin2024and2025EPSForecastsbySector5

2024EPSbySectorforUS,UK,JapanandEurozone6

2025EPSbySectorforUS,UK,JapanandEurozone7

+veto-veEPSRevisionsbyCountry/Region8

EPSGrowthbySectorforKeyRegions9

RegionalandCountryValuations10

SectorValuationsbyRegion11

RegionalValuations:

12monthForwardPE12

PricetoBook13

Cycle-AdjustedPE14

RegionalDividendYieldGap15

USEquityStrategy

DubravkoLakos-BujasAC

(1-212)622-3601

dubravko.lakos-bujas@J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

Seepage16foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

2

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

MarketsandGlobalSectorsPerformance(%)

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

2.6%

2.5%

2.3%

2.0%

1.8%

1.7%

1.3%

1.0%

0.7%

0.5%

2.7%

0.7%

0.5%

1.9%

HangSengFTSE100S&P/ASX200IBEXSXXPDAXMSCIEMMSCIWorldSXXES&P500STIFTSEMIBCACTOPIX

LastWeekPerformance%

Source:Datastream,MSCI

MSCIWorld(DM)

MSCIUS

MSCIEurope

MSCIJapan

1week

12M

1week

12M

1week

12M

1week

12M

Energy

-0.3%

12.7%

-1.2%

11.1%

1.9%

14.9%

2.2%

62.0%

Materials

1.0%

8.8%

-0.5%

7.9%

1.3%

11.7%

2.0%

16.3%

Industrials

0.7%

17.6%

-0.5%

15.7%

1.6%

19.9%

4.2%

30.5%

Discretionary

2.9%

12.2%

3.8%

16.0%

0.2%

-3.3%

1.4%

16.1%

Staples

1.0%

1.2%

1.0%

5.2%

0.8%

-7.7%

1.2%

3.9%

HealthCare

-0.8%

10.7%

-0.9%

9.7%

-1.0%

14.1%

2.8%

8.6%

Financials

1.1%

23.1%

0.9%

24.5%

1.5%

21.2%

4.3%

63.6%

IT

3.7%

44.2%

3.8%

45.9%

2.0%

35.0%

4.0%

29.9%

Telecom

3.6%

40.2%

3.8%

45.7%

1.2%

10.2%

4.4%

22.5%

Utilities

1.2%

3.1%

0.6%

4.7%

3.5%

-1.3%

-2.1%

32.3%

RealEstate

0.3%

1.6%

-0.3%

-0.5%

3.2%

24.8%

2.4%

19.2%

Market

1.8%

21.8%

1.9%

25.3%

1.0%

12.0%

3.2%

26.5%

Source:Datastream,MSCI.ReportedinLocalCurrencyforallregions.

3

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

KeyGlobalMarketsPerformance(%)

US$

LocalCurrency

Country

Index

4W

YTD

12M

4W

YTD

12M

Developed

MSCIWorld

2.9%

13.0%

20.9%

3.0%

14.5%

21.8%

UnitedStates

S&P500

4.1%

16.7%

25.2%

4.1%

16.7%

25.2%

UnitedStates

Russel2000

0.0%

0.0%

8.2%

0.0%

0.0%

8.2%

Europe

Stoxx600

-1.2%

5.7%

12.3%

-1.3%

7.8%

12.8%

UnitedKingdom

FTSE100

0.1%

6.5%

10.9%

-0.5%

6.1%

10.2%

UnitedKingdom

FTSE250

1.7%

6.0%

13.7%

1.1%

5.6%

13.0%

Eurozone

EuroStoxx

-1.8%

5.6%

11.3%

-1.9%

7.8%

11.8%

Austria

ATX

1.5%

5.8%

16.9%

1.4%

8.0%

17.4%

Belgium

BEL20

1.6%

4.6%

11.0%

1.5%

6.8%

11.5%

Finland

HEX

-1.5%

-2.7%

0.0%

-1.6%

-0.7%

0.4%

France

CAC

-4.0%

-0.3%

4.5%

-4.1%

1.8%

5.0%

Germany

DAX

-0.3%

8.1%

15.4%

-0.4%

10.3%

15.9%

Ireland

ISEQ

-3.2%

6.4%

9.0%

-3.3%

8.6%

9.5%

Italy

MIB

-1.8%

9.7%

19.9%

-1.9%

12.0%

20.4%

Netherlands

AEX

1.2%

16.3%

20.7%

1.1%

18.7%

21.3%

Portugal

PSI

-1.3%

-7.6%

-2.7%

-1.4%

-5.7%

-2.3%

Spain

IBEX

-3.2%

6.9%

15.7%

-3.3%

9.1%

16.2%

Denmark

OMXC20

-1.4%

22.0%

38.9%

-1.5%

24.6%

39.8%

Norway

OBX

-0.5%

2.0%

13.1%

-1.6%

6.1%

12.2%

Sweden

OMX

-2.3%

2.4%

16.3%

-2.6%

6.7%

12.2%

Switzerland

SMI

-2.2%

1.0%

7.2%

-2.0%

7.8%

7.3%

Japan

Topix

2.0%

6.7%

12.3%

4.7%

21.9%

25.1%

Australia

ASX200

1.7%

1.7%

9.0%

-0.5%

3.1%

7.8%

NewZealand

NZX50

-0.4%

-4.3%

-5.7%

-0.7%

-1.2%

-4.9%

Canada

TSE300

1.0%

1.8%

6.8%

0.2%

5.3%

9.7%

HongKong

HangSeng

-3.1%

4.4%

-6.7%

-3.1%

4.4%

-6.9%

Singapore

STI

2.5%

2.9%

7.3%

2.4%

5.3%

7.1%

EmergingMarkets

MSCIEM

3.0%

7.9%

10.4%

3.4%

11.4%

13.5%

Global

MSCIACWorld

2.9%

12.5%

19.8%

3.0%

14.2%

20.9%

Source:Datastream,MSCI

4

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

Stoxx600(€)

S&P500($)

113

108

103

98

93

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

EuroStoxx(€)

115-

110-

105

100-

95

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

118

113

108

103

98

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

FTSE100(£)

CAC(€)

112-

107

102

97

92

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

DAX(€)

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

113

108-

103-

98-

93-

88

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

IBEX(€)

MSCIAustralia(A$)

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

88

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

Topix*(¥)

120

115

110

105

100

95

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

135-

125

115-

105-

95

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

ProfitOutlook:Changesin2024and2025EPSForecastsbyCountry/Region

MSCIWorld(rebased)($)

110-

105-

100

95

90

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

MIB(€)

128

123

118

113

108

103

98

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

MSCIHongKong(HK$)

111-106-

101

96

91

86

81

76

Jan23Jul23Jan24Jul24

2024e2025e

Source:IBES,Datastream.*JapanreferstofiscalyearendingMarch2025,2026

5

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

Industrials

103102-101-

100

99

98

97

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

Materials

Discretionary

107-105-103-

101-

99-97-

95-

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

108

103

98

93

88

83

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

Financials

105

103

101

99

97

95

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

IT

115

110

105

100

95

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

HealthCare

104

99

94

89

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

Utilities

115

110

105

100

95

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

RealEstate

103

98-J

93

88

83

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

ProfitOutlook:Changesin2024and2025EPSForecastsbySectorrelativetomarket

WorldEnergyrelative(rebased)

110

105

100

95

90

85

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

Staples

105

103

101

99

97

95

93

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

Telecom

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

2024e2025e

Source:IBES,Datastream

6

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

Energyrelative(rebased)

Industrials

Discretionary

115

105

95

85

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

112

107-

102-

97

92-

87-i

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

120-

115-

110-

105-

100-

95-i

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Staples

Financials

IT

111-

106-

101-

91

86-i

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

USUK

JapanEurzone

125-

115-

105-

95

85

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

132-

122

112

102

82

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Telecom

RealEstate

117-

112-

107-

102

97-

92-i

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

110

105

100

95

90

85

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

USUK

EurozoneJapan

92-

96-

ProfitOutlook:2024EPSbysectorforUS,UK,Japan*,Eurozonerelativetomarket

Materials

105-10095-9085-8075-i

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

HealthCare

116-

106

96

86-

76

66-

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Utilities

145-

135

125-

115-

105-

95i

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Source:IBES,Datastream.*JapanreferstofiscalyearendingMarch2025.

7

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

Materials

106-

96

86

76

66

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Industrials

120

115

110

105

100

95

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Discretionary

115

110

105

100

95

90

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Financials

122-

112-

102-

92

82-i

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

IT

127

117

107

97

87

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

HealthCare

112

102

92

82

72

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Utilities

140

130

120

110

100

90

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

RealEstate

120

110

100

90

80

70

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

USUK

EurozoneJapan

ProfitOutlook:2025EPSbysectorforUS,UK,Japan*,Eurozonerelativetomarket

Energyrelative(rebased)

105

100

95

90

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Staples

105

100

95

90

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurzone

Telecom

110

105

100

95

90

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

USUK

JapanEurozone

Source:IBES,Datastream.*JapanreferstofiscalyearendingMarch2026.

8

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

Stoxx600

1.0-

0.5-

0.0-

-0.5

-1.0-

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 Stoxx600+veto-veEPSRevisions

S&P500

0.7-

0.2

-0.3-

-0.8-

-1.3-

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 S&P500+veto-veEPSRevisions

EuroStoxx

1.0-

0.5

0.0-

-0.5-

-1.0-

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 EuroStoxx+veto-veEPSRevisions

CAC

0.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 CAC40+veto-veEPSRevisions

MIB

1.0

0.5

0.0-

-0.5-

-1.0-

-1.5-

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 MIB+veto-veEPSRevisions

DAX

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24

DAX+veto-veEPSRevisions

MSCIAustralia

1.0-

0.5

0.0-

-0.5-

-1.0-

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 MSCIAustralia+veto-veEPSRevisions

MSCIHongKong

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 MSCIHongKong+veto-veEPSRevisions

Topix

0.4-

0.2-

0.0

-0.2-

-0.4-

-0.6-

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 Topix+veto-veEPSRevisions

ProfitOutlook:+veto-veEPSRevisionsbyCountry/Region

MSCIWorld

0.40.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24 MSCIWorld+veto-veEPSRevisions

FTSE100

0.6-0.4-0.2-0.0--0.2--0.4--0.6--0.8--1.0-

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24

FTSE100+veto-veEPSRevisions

IBEX

0.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.2

Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24

IBEX+veto-veEPSRevisions

Source:IBES,Datastream.

9

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

ProfitOutlook:EPSGrowthEstimatesbySectorforKeyRegions

MSCIWorld

2024e2025e2026e

MSCIUS

MSCIEurozone

MSCIUK

MSCIJapan*

2024e

2025e

2026e

2024e

2025e

2026e

2024e

2025e

2026e

2024e

2025e

2026e

Energy-6.8%8.3%3.8%

-9.8%

11.1%

2.9%

-9.7%

0.6%

2.8%

1.4%

3.8%

4.5%

-9.3%

8.4%

8.7%

Materials2.3%14.3%7.5%

-1.4%

17.1%

11.4%

16.2%

19.9%

12.4%

-1.0%

8.8%

3.8%

6.1%

19.6%

8.4%

Industrials7.6%12.6%11.9%

6.5%

14.6%

12.8%

15.5%

15.2%

12.3%

7.8%

12.9%

11.1%

6.5%

5.0%

8.9%

Discretionary8.8%13.5%13.3%

15.3%

16.5%

16.7%

1.2%

9.7%

9.4%

-0.2%

18.4%

15.9%

1.5%

8.1%

6.7%

Staples4.3%8.3%8.0%

4.3%

7.6%

7.9%

3.8%

10.7%

10.0%

1.4%

6.7%

6.9%

19.4%

11.4%

8.4%

Healthcare8.0%17.6%11.5%

8.7%

18.5%

11.4%

3.0%

15.6%

11.5%

8.3%

13.2%

9.2%

1.3%

24.1%

19.5%

Financials8.7%9.2%10.6%

10.1%

10.9%

12.7%

7.7%

6.9%

7.1%

0.9%

7.1%

10.1%

13.1%

10.3%

9.4%

IT16.6%21.1%15.3%

18.9%

20.6%

15.3%

-12.5%

37.3%

16.7%

10.4%

10.8%

11.3%

12.7%

18.9%

13.1%

Telecom21.7%13.0%13.0%

23.1%

13.0%

13.9%

12.0%

11.0%

12.1%

3.6%

12.1%

7.9%

27.0%

15.6%

0.6%

Utilities4.9%5.7%5.5%

12.6%

8.4%

7.7%

-4.6%

-2.4%

2.6%

-9.1%

6.9%

7.4%

-34.0%

6.9%

-9.7%

RealEstate0.2%7.2%8.9%

1.3%

7.9%

10.2%

4.2%

1.9%

4.7%

2.6%

5.3%

5.5%

1.8%

7.3%

8.3%

Market8.3%13.0%11.1%

10.6%

14.9%

12.5%

3.6%

10.6%

9.2%

1.6%

8.2%

8.0%

6.3%

10.5%

8.5%

Source:IBES,MSCI,Datastream.*JapanreferstofiscalyearendingMarch2025,2026,2027

10

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

RegionalandCountryValuations

05-Jul-24MSCIIndex

12mFwdP/E

Price/Book

ROE

DividendYield

Cycle-adjustedP/E

CurrentMedianUpside

Current

Median

Upside

Current

Median

Upside

Current

Median

Upside

Current

Median

Upside

World2819

19.0

15.6

-18%

3.5

2.2

-37%

15.5

12.0

-22%

1.8

2.5

42%

25.224.2-4%

US5293

21.8

15.3

-30%

5.0

2.6

-49%

18.8

14.5

-23%

1.3

2.3

75%

30.024.8-17%

Europe2073

13.7

12.9

-6%

2.1

1.8

-15%

14.1

11.5

-18%

3.2

3.5

11%

18.819.33%

UK2344

11.4

12.4

9%

1.9

1.8

-4%

15.2

13.2

-13%

3.8

4.0

6%

16.117.17%

Eurozone295

13.0

12.8

-2%

1.8

1.7

-6%

12.4

10.6

-15%

3.1

3.1

-1%

18.619.65%

Germany1131

11.9

12.7

7%

1.5

1.7

10%

10.6

11.6

10%

3.0

3.2

5%

19.319.1-1%

France2690

13.7

12.9

-6%

2.0

1.6

-19%

12.2

9.8

-20%

3.0

3.4

11%

20.322.19%

Italy1081

9.0

12.8

41%

1.4

1.2

-9%

16.5

9.1

-45%

5.1

3.1

-40%

16.720.925%

Spain1114

10.0

11.5

14%

1.3

1.3

-3%

13.6

10.0

-26%

4.2

4.1

-3%

13.216.625%

Japan1792

16.1

16.9

5%

1.6

1.8

13%

9.5

8.3

-13%

1.9

1.7

-11%

26.335.735%

Australia1572

16.7

14.3

-15%

2.4

1.8

-23%

12.4

11.5

-7%

3.9

4.1

6%

18.320.09%

HongKong10438

10.9

14.1

30%

0.8

1.5

77%

5.8

10.8

85%

4.6

3.2

-30%

20.820.2-3%

RegionalPrice/BookvsRoE

Price/Book

◆Japan

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

US

World

Australia

EurozonuropUeK

Spain

◆HongKong

4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%

ROE

Source:IBES,MSCI,Datastream.*Longtermmedian.

RegionalFwdP/EvsEarningsGrowth

12mFwdP/E

23

21

19

17

15

13

11

9

US

World

Australia

Japan

Europe

EurozoneUK

HongKong

Spain

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%

12mFwdEarningsGrowth

Source:IBES,MSCI,Datastream.

Source:MSCI,Datastream.

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

SectorValuationsbyRegion

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

12mFwdP/E

Median

Upside

DivYield

Median

vsMedian

Price/Book

Median

Upside

ROE

Median

Upside

World

19.0

16.3

-14%

1.8

2.4

-25%

3.5

2.4

-30%

15.3

12.2

-20%

Energy

10.7

14.6

37%

3.7

3.8

-4%

1.8

1.6

-14%

15.8

7.9

-50%

Materials

16.1

15.1

-6%

2.6

2.8

-4%

2.2

2.0

-9%

11.2

11.2

0%

Industrials

19.4

16.7

-14%

1.7

2.1

-19%

3.8

3.0

-21%

16.9

14.6

-14%

Discretionary

20.4

17.3

-15%

1.2

1.7

-29%

4.3

3.3

-24%

19.2

15.8

-18%

Staples

18.6

19.4

4%

2.7

2.7

1%

4.5

4.2

-6%

22.6

19.3

-14%

HealthCare

18.9

17.1

-10%

1.7

1.9

-8%

4.7

4.1

-13%

17.0

16.9

0%

Financials

12.6

12.2

-4%

2.8

3.0

-7%

1.7

1.2

-25%

11.7

8.8

-25%

IT

31.2

19.4

-38%

0.6

1.2

-50%

10.9

5.9

-46%

25.0

22.7

-9%

Telecom

19.9

16.1

-19%

1.2

1.9

-36%

4.0

2.5

-38%

16.3

12.6

-22%

Utilities

14.8

16.0

9%

3.8

3.7

3%

1.8

1.8

-3%

11.8

9.7

-18%

RealEstate

25.2

24.6

-2%

3.7

3.4

8%

1.7

1.6

-6%

5.8

7.2

24%

US

21.8

17.7

-19%

1.3

1.9

-32%

5.0

3.4

-33%

18.5

14.8

-20%

Energy

11.9

17.3

46%

3.1

3.1

-1%

2.2

1.9

-16%

17.8

7.6

-57%

Materials

18.6

16.6

-11%

1.8

2.0

-11%

2.9

3.1

5%

12.4

14.1

14%

Industrials

21.0

18.2

-14%

1.5

1.9

-22%

6.1

4.8

-22%

24.9

19.6

-21%

Discretionary

26.4

21.7

-18%

0.7

1.3

-46%

9.9

7.8

-21%

31.6

23.5

-26%

Staples

20.1

19.7

-2%

2.5

2.7

-8%

6.4

5.5

-14%

30.1

26.8

-11%

HealthCare

18.8

16.7

-12%

1.6

1.6

0%

5.1

4.3

-15%

17.1

17.5

3%

Financials

15.0

13.5

-10%

1.7

2.1

-17%

2.1

1.5

-32%

12.0

9.6

-20%

IT

31.4

19.4

-38%

0.6

1.2

-52%

12.9

7.2

-44%

28.9

27.6

-4%

Telecom

20.5

15.7

-23%

0.9

1.3

-32%

5.0

3.2

-35%

19.5

15.0

-23%

Utilities

16.4

17.5

7%

3.3

3.4

-3%

2.1

2.0

-3%

10.8

9.8

-9%

RealEstate

34.3

38.2

12%

3.7

3.4

8%

2.8

3.1

10%

8.2

8.4

2%

Eurozone

13.0

13.6

5%

3.1

3.1

1%

1.8

1.6

-9%

12.4

9.2

-26%

Energy

7.3

11.3

55%

5.0

5.2

-3%

1.2

1.2

0%

13.4

7.9

-41%

Materials

15.3

14.9

-3%

3.3

2.8

20%

1.5

1.7

14%

7.1

8.5

19%

Industrials

16.7

15.9

-4%

2.3

2.6

-9%

3.1

2.7

-12%

14.5

12.9

-11%

Discretionary

11.1

12.0

9%

3.0

2.6

16%

1.7

1.9

7%

15.4

12.8

-16%

Staples

17.5

19.6

12%

2.4

2.3

4%

2.5

3.2

29%

13.1

14.4

10%

HealthCare

14.2

15.2

7%

2.0

2.4

-18%

1.8

2.2

26%

9.8

10.4

6%

Financials

8.2

9.6

17%

5.2

4.2

25%

1.0

0.8

-21%

11.9

6.9

-42%

IT

30.8

20.6

-33%

0.9

1.3

-29%

6.5

4.1

-37%

17.7

12.3

-30%

Telecom

15.2

14.9

-2%

3.6

4.1

-13%

1.7

1.8

4%

7.1

8.9

27%

Utilities

12.2

13.8

13%

5.3

4.6

17%

1.7

1.6

-7%

14.6

10.1

-31%

RealEstate

11.8

16.3

39%

4.1

3.9

5%

0.8

0.9

18%

3.3

5.2

60%

UK

11.4

13.1

15%

3.8

3.9

-4%

1.9

1.8

-6%

15.1

11.8

-22%

Energy

8.1

11.2

38%

4.0

5.6

-28%

1.3

1.2

-10%

16.5

8.7

-47%

Materials

11.9

11.0

-7%

4.7

4.7

0%

1.8

1.8

-4%

15.3

15.3

0%

Industrials

21.5

17.2

-20%

1.5

2.3

-33%

6.8

4.4

-35%

23.5

22.8

-3%

Discretionary

18.0

14.5

-19%

2.2

2.9

-24%

2.7

2.8

4%

11.4

19.3

68%

Staples

12.3

14.5

18%

4.5

3.8

18%

2.8

2.8

2%

20.7

17.9

-13%

HealthCare

14.0

15.5

10%

2.4

3.6

-32%

5.3

5.6

6%

32.5

28.1

-13%

Financials

8.0

10.3

29%

5.0

3.8

30%

1.0

1.0

-7%

11.8

6.5

-45%

IT

28.4

25.7

-9%

1.3

1.5

-10%

7.4

5.3

-28%

20.4

16.8

-17%

Telecom

10.7

13.3

24%

5.8

5.1

15%

0.8

1.1

31%

8.1

7.2

-11%

Utilities

12.6

14.8

18%

5.0

5.0

0%

1.6

2.2

37%

12.4

15.1

22%

RealEstate

19.9

19.8

0%

3.9

4.0

-3%

0.9

0.8

-18%

4.5

3.8

-15%

Japan

16.1

14.0

-13%

1.9

2.1

-11%

1.6

1.3

-17%

9.4

8.6

-9%

Energy

8.8

8.6

-3%

2.9

3.2

-11%

0.7

0.6

-15%

8.4

6.5

-23%

Materials

13.9

12.8

-8%

2.4

2.2

9%

1.3

1.1

-12%

8.9

8.5

-4%

Industrials

16.1

13.7

-15%

1.7

1.9

-11%

1.7

1.4

-18%

9.6

9.3

-3%

Discretionary

12.1

12.3

2%

1.9

2.0

-4%

1.4

1.4

-2%

11.1

10.0

-10%

Staples

20.1

21.3

6%

2.2

1.9

15%

2.0

2.3

15%

9.4

9.6

2%

HealthCare

29.9

25.6

-14%

1.8

1.8

-1%

2.4

2.4

-1%

7.1

9.1

28%

Financials

13.1

9.6

-27%

2.5

3.4

-28%

1.2

0.7

-42%

7.7

7.0

-9%

IT

25.5

17.8

-30%

1.1

1.7

-34%

3.0

2.0

-36%

9.6

9.4

-3%

Telecom

20.3

13.7

-32%

2.2

2.3

-3%

2.0

1.8

-8%

9.9

12.0

22%

Utilities

8.4

9.9

18%

1.8

2.1

-13%

0.7

0.7

0%

14.7

6.8

-54%

RealEstate

15.0

15.5

4%

2.6

2.7

-4%

1.3

1.3

2%

7.5

8.1

8%

Source:IBES,MSCI,Datastream,10YMedian11

12

J.P.MorganEquityStrategy

MislavMatejka(44-20)7134-9741,mislav.matejka@

PedroMartinsJunior(55-11)4950-4121,pedro.x.martins@

DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601,dubravko.lakos-bujas@

GlobalEquityResearch

8July2024

J.RMorgan

MSCIEurope

21

16

11

6

8892970106101519

MSCIEurope12mfwdPE+1stdev

Median

-1stdev

MSCIUS

23

18

13

8

889297