轻工制造行业专题研究：浅析海运费对出口盈利影响

能床、办公椅、升降桌、冰箱、洗衣机、空调海运费/货值水平分别约为因报价模式、长协价签订等综合因素存在，企业最终承担的海运费与指数上涨程度会有不小偏差。我们选择致欧科技、赛维时代、乐歌股份、涛涛上行后企业成本的确有所承压，但受船运长协价格、业务结构等综合因素迁移至海外比例越大、单位体积货值越高的企业，受运费上涨影风险提示：1）消费意愿不达预期的风险；2）海外经2023/72023/12请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 3 4 2.1海运费影响程度与货值 52.2对不同品类海运费率敏感性分析 7 8 106.26%/79.58%/143.10%/100.04%/73.99%/183.57%/153.05%/1图表1：马士基和地中海宣布2024年7月1日起调涨亚洲至欧基港口运价费率马士基运价运价20DC40DC/HC20DV40DV/HCRotterdam,NL50009000NWC63709800Gdansk,PL50509100ADRIATIC62009000Felixtowe.GB50009000WESTMED62009000远东亚洲Aarhus,DK50259050EASTMED53007900Gothenburg,SEGothenburg,SE5025502590509050BLACKBLACKSEA5350535080008000Oslo,NO52009400图表2：最常见集装箱包括20/40尺标准柜和40/45尺高柜指标20尺标准柜40尺标准柜（40DC,FEU）40尺高柜（40HC）45尺高柜（45HC）20英尺*8英尺*8英尺6英寸40英尺*8英尺*8英尺6英寸40英尺*8英尺*9英尺6英寸45英尺*8英尺*9英尺6英寸体积5.9米*2.35米*2.39米12.03米*2.35米*2.39米12.03米*2.35米*2.67米13.55米*2.35米*2.67米33.2立方米67.7立方米76.3立方米86立方米载重25000kg27600kg28600kg27860kg港等因素，供需双向因素致使运费高涨，2022年初海运费4请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明运年图表3：2020年至今中国出口集装箱运价指数经历三轮上涨运年——中国出口集装箱运价指数:地中海航线中国出口集装箱运价指数:东南亚航线——中国出口集装箱运价指数:美西航线中国出口集装箱运价指数:美东航线中国出口集装箱运价指数:欧洲航线中国出口集装箱运价指数:南美航线中国出口集装箱运价指数:南非航线中国出口集装箱运价指数:波红航线7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0002020-20222020-2022年初：疫情蔓延集件叠加期，商件叠加期，商集装箱前出货河河停停堵21216月月苏月苏圳盐伊士运伊士运田港塞胡胡塞武塞武装装红海红海袭击袭击封封控趋控趋严严货量货量减减少少运运力减力减运运涨涨集集运需运需求降求降低低加加,,港口商船商船,,迫绕船运公船运公行好望角红海事红海事关税预拥堵问拥堵问供给供给题环题环增加节节，运价力力下跌有效有效家争夺家争夺以期提以期提2020-01-032020-02-032020-03-032020-04-032020-05-032020-06-032020-07-032020-08-032020-09-032020-10-032020-11-032020-12-032021-01-032021-02-032021-03-032021-04-032021-05-032021-06-032021-07-032021-08-032021-09-032021-10-032021-11-032021-12-032022-01-032022-02-032022-03-032022-04-032022-05-032022-06-032022-07-032022-08-032022-09-032022-10-032022-11-032022-12-032023-01-032023-02-032023-03-032023-04-032023-05-032023-06-032023-07-032023-08-032023-09-032023-10-032023-11-032023-12-032024-01-032024-02-032024-03-032024-04-032024-05-032024-06-03图表4：2023年底红海和亚丁湾袭击事件发生图表5：2024年大量商品在关税加征条例生效前出货关税相关内容2024.04.22墨西哥对钢/铝/纺织品/服装/鞋类/木材/塑料及其制品等544项商品征收5%-50%临时进口关税2024.5.14对电动汽车/电动汽车电池/太阳能电池/计算机芯片/医疗产品等中国进口商品进一步提高关税，包括将电动汽车关税提高到100%以上、半导体关税提高至50%2024.07.05对来自中国的电动汽车进口征收临时反补贴税，包括上(19.9%)、比亚迪(37.6%)长，且5月增速环比提升显著。5月/1-5月海关口径家具及其零件出口额同比+18.1%/+16.6%。但与此同时，近期地缘政治扰动不费对家居家电品类及出口企业实际影响进行了相关测算，以供投图表6：2024年5月轻工板块分品类出口金额及同比变化名称单位：亿美元24M5环比24M424M324M224M123M1223M1123M1023M923M823M723M623M523M423M323M223M18.9%0.3%8.9%0.3%1.144.5% 33.2%20.9%57.4%71.0%40.0%25.5%18.3%18.4%25.7%12.4%15.7%-2.9%-12.7%20.7%-4.2%-18.0%44.5%0.715.1%0.60.60.70.715.1%3.7%4.4%30.7%18.4%20.9%12.9%3.7%12.1%18.8%13.9%20.1%5.9%6.4%13.2%-12.3%-18.3%1.3%-6.5%7.0 1.3%-6.5%7.0 7.0% 5.8%-6.3%65.8%36.1%28.8%24.6%18.2%14.7%11.0%-12.0%-9.8%-12.1%-7.2%-9.4%-39.1%-31.4%7.0%7.326.2%7.87.07.326.2% 21.9%-1.2%60.6%24.8%9.5%-6.1%-21.0%-18.8%-16.3%-13.2%-21.7%-23.3%-18.1%-5.5%-37.6%-20.0%3.326.0%3.377.0%77.0%1%5.3.81%5.27.0%2.61.71.52.42.32.21.81.91.81.82.01.91.91.80.91.9 36.0%-3.9%74.6%26.9%21.4%36.7%11.2%14.6%16.5%5.9%9.9%3.1%22.2%20.5%-11.7%-0.4%3.64.22.13.03.93.73.43.53.13.03.03.03.13.21.52.9 15.0%28.8%45.7%4.1%30.3%20.2%7.5%17.4%10.9%3.9%1.0%-5.8%7.7%26.8%-12.7%-20.4%0.7%4.11.1%4.43.93.35.25.04.6 -3.4%0.7%4.11.1%4.43.93.35.25.04.6 -3.4%-13.4%55.2%18.0%8.6%7.5%4.4-5.2%0.4%-9.6%-30.9%-27.3%-21.0%-16.5%-22.5%-49.0%-31.3%5.121.0%4.33.13.04.94.04.23.94.24.13.93.83.84.23.71.53.81.7%-15.0%91.4%26.8%21.2%21.4%4.2%22.8%24.7%-2.3%-6.1%-4.9%19.4%26.6%-29.4%-4.5%36.1%36.1%-2.9%0.611.6%0.63.8%0.60.60.40.70.6 8.9%-9.0%17.2%-2.9%0.611.6%0.63.8%0.60.60.40.70.6 8.9%-9.0%17.2%15.0%17.0% -4.1%-5.9%-12.9%-12.0%-15.7%-6.8%7.0%13.4%-22.3%-31.0%0.3%0.83.6%0.3%0.83.6% -6.1%-15.1%14.8%15.5%-4.3%-9.7%-25.9%-17.9%-12.4%-15.3%-12.4%-6.5%12.3%33.4%7.9%-14.2%2.0-5.9%-6.2%2.22.01.52.32.62.51.92.22.32.02.02.22.42.61.72.52.0-5.9% -10.2%-23.7%-14.1%-7.8%-14.4%-17.1%-28.2%-13.6%-20.5%-37.9%-31.6%-35.2%-6.5%8.5%8.2%-37.4%4%36.634.115.340.00.6%26.2%-39.6%-15.9%4%36.634.115.340.00.6%26.2%-39.6%-15.9%37.52.4%34.925.828.543.5 -4.5%-24.3%86.7%8.7%7.1.1%-6.3%-16.0%-12.6%-8.1%-11.1%-11.4%-4.8%4.4-13.7%-12.3%5.04.23.76.96.85.75.15.14.94.85.35.15.85.62.16.04.4-13.7% -13.7%-25.5%78.1%15.2%-19.6%-31.2%-44.0%-42.4%-34.6%-39.0%-41.1%-45.4%-26.1%15.1%-48.2%-34.5%0.7-4.0%-1.9%0.80.80.60.80.80.70.60.80.80.70.80.80.9 -11.2%-8.5%11.8%6.0%-9.5%-15.3%-9.2%-0.1%-13.5%-29.1%-20.7%-7.7%4.4%0.90.5 51.6%39.6%0.8-0.1%3%1.321.4%6.1.210.9%1.10.81.21.11.01.01.11.01.11.11.01.11.10.70.93%1.321.4%6.1.210.9%2.9%22.2%35.5%19.3%28.0%14.7%29.3%-3.9%-5.4%-3.6%-17.4%2.7%-9.6%-12.4%-33.2%5.716.4.93.63.54.02.93.13.34.04.84.24.74.34.43.81.94.0 12.7%-3.2%80.6%-0.8%2.4%-21.0%-20.6%-21.0%-11.7%-26.8%-9.5%-7.0%9.0%-7.6%-42.4%-15.2%32.4%32.4%1.68.8%8%1.51.40.91.31.11.01.11.31.31.11.11.11.11.20.81.2 41.1%9.2%19.5%0.8%0.6%-6.0%10.1%24.8%-10.8%-24.4%-18.7%-2.1%-15.3%1.6%-20.6%-20.8%42.4%42.4%1.134.0.80.70.40.60.50.50.40.70.80.80.80.80.70.70.40.4 10.0%2.1%16.6%42.1%18.7%-0.9%-8.7%1.8%13.3%-15.6%-4.1%27.9%28.6%32.0%0.2%-16.5%36.9%36.9%3.09.1%9.1%4.5%4.2.82.82.23.23.1 -10.8%-13.1%10.5%18.1%6.5%2.93.3%2.64.7%2.81.1%2.70.6%2.72.72.73.23.22.0 -1.7%10.3%7.3%50.2%43.5%20.8%2.72.1%0.7.3%1.01.31.01.61.00.80.40.30.30.30.40.50.81.10.71.5 19.7%11.0%43.5%3.8%-5.3%-15.1%-40.4%-45.1%-27.6%-32.7%-31.6%-41.1%-46.9%-37.0%-43.8%-24.2%28.8%为测算本轮海运费对家居出口影响，我们选取不受合约价格扰动的上海集装箱数作为海运费参考值，计算以USD/FEU6请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表7：欧美航线SCFI指数2024H1相较2023年上涨约161%航线单位2023年均值2024H1均值2024H1上涨幅度欧洲（基本港）USD/FEU地中海（基本港）USD/FEU美西（基本港）USD/FEU美东（基本港）USD/FEU欧美航线指数USD/FEU1948.735091.53161.27%不同品类影响程度的区别。家居家电均属于中40寸集装箱高度可累放一台冰箱和一台洗衣机，通过混合发货方海运费/货值水平约为9.29%/11.59%/10.07%/9.87%/6.42%/5.33%/3.5图表8：2023年各品类海运费/货值水平品类体积(m³)预计每箱可装数量平均价格(美元)货值(美元)海运费/货值若50%签订长协价功能沙发1*0.94*1.01拆包体积0.94*0.83*0.86250212509.17%9.29%智能床2.3*1.54*1.04可拆包：电机1.92*0.48*0.21床头1.57*1.07*0.24床侧床尾1.99*0.39*0.11床垫0.33*0.33*1.60258办公椅0.49*0.44*0.5（椅身）拆包体积0.59×0.38×0.52490409.94%升降桌0.79*0.54*0.4可拆包：桌板1.46×0.75×0.06桌腿1.16×0.28×0.22400200009.74%9.87%冰箱+洗衣机合计(0.94+1.6)*0.6*0.60.94*0.56*0.571.6*0.6*0.6248308307346.34%6.42%单洗衣机0.87*0.515*0.53包装体积0.94*0.56*0.57370505.26%5.33%挂式空调内机包装0.91*0.38*0.29外机包装0.93*0.635*0.39326563983.46%3.50%资料来源：海关总署、京东、公司公告、上海航运交易所，大。8请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表9：2024年各品类海运费/货值对不同运价涨幅的敏感性分析20%50%100%120%150%功能沙发4.59%9.17%智能床2.29%5.72%4.97%9.94%升降桌4.87%9.74%冰箱(+洗衣机)3.17%6.34%7.61%9.51%2.63%5.26%6.31%7.89%挂式空调0.69%3.46%4.15%5.18%涨程度存在一定偏差。为探究企业实际海运费变化与SCFI指数涨幅差距，我们取图表10：2021年欧美航线SCFI指数同比上涨约216%航线单位2020年均值2021年均值2021年上涨幅度欧洲（基本港）USD/FEU地中海（基本港）USD/FEU美西（基本港）USD/FEU美东（基本港）USD/FEU欧美航线指数USD/FEU2512.617947.13216.29%份、共创草坪公司进行测算，在其他条件不变的情况下，假设企业海运费司变动情况均有所不同，但除共创草坪生产耗用原材料成本大幅上涨导致毛利率锐减外，大部分企业毛利率变动也小于测算值。图表11：2021海运费率变动实际值均小于测算值部分出口公司列举2020年海运费率预计2021年实际2021年海运费率毛利率变动海运费率毛利率变动致欧科技(海运费)4.24%13.41%-9.17%10.50%-5.28%赛维时代(头程物流)5.24%16.57%-11.33%7.12%-4.04%乐歌股份(合同履约成本)7.71%24.39%-16.68%6.77%-7.02%涛涛车业(清关及海运费)5.38%17.02%-11.64%8.48%-2.20%敏华控股(境外运输及港口费用)5.98%18.91%-12.93%6.10%0.63%匠心家居(货代及运费)境外运费4.56%14.43%-9.87%4.19%2.99%2.02%6.40%-4.38%1.75%*永艺股份(运输费用)2.94%9.29%-6.35%2.77%-4.54%共创草坪(运输港杂费及业务费)2.49%7.87%-5.38%2.70%-9.02%注*：匠心家居2021年境外运费非真实值，而是假设匠根据涛涛车业招股说明书披露数据也可得知，2021年单位货柜运费实际上涨元，若单独计算清关及海运费科目，则同比提升6图表12：2021年涛涛车业实际单位货柜运费上涨69.85%（万元）涛涛车业20192020202124,598.74158.30%海运费、关税及其他-9,523.42yoy进口清关海运费+境外仓库间产品调拨运费-7848.8818714.54yoy176.67%138.44%5,066.02境内销售运费473.87651.64境外销售运费2,445.193,127.07清关及海运费(万元)2472.137454.7017104.89yoy69.54%占营业成本比5.72%8.29%2468销售货柜数(个)723单位货柜运费(万元/个)3.424.086.93yoy19.30%69.85%进口关税5884.19yoy-3.22%251.39%135,243.948.48%9.28%2.92%32.97%营业成本合计43,212.9089,886.37清关及海运费占营业收入比3.29%5.38%海运费、关税及其他占收入比-5.66%进口关税占收入比1.21%毛利率42.51%35.13%10图表13：2020-2023年涛涛车业成本构成及净利率变动情况202320222021202045.92%202320222021202045.92%3.23%2.36%10.89%14.69%8.44%4.09%-2.13%13.08%47.43%3.31%1.96%11.55%14.39%7.71%3.64%-0.85%11.68%44.68%3.50%2.68%12.19%10.21%6.92%3.12%1.69%12.03%46.20%3.33%3.36%6.87%7.54%7.09%2.76%3.15%15.72%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%u直接材料/收入u直接人工/收入u制造费用/收入海运费、关税及其他/收入u销售费率管理费率研发费率u财务费率净利率业务架构：公司业务模式影响海运费占比和毛利率水平，跨境电商或式由己方承担运费，因此海运费上涨会造成一定当期业绩压力。2022年间与海运费呈反向下行趋势，从2020年的2.02%下降至2021/2022年的图表14：各公司海运相关费用/营业收入比及2021年变动2018201920202021202220232021年同比变动%海运费率毛利率(5.28)(4.04)(7.02)(5.28)(4.04)(7.02)(2.20)(2.20)1.88(0.94)3.613.10-1.71-致欧科技(海运费)--4.24%10.50%11.33%-赛维时代(头程物流)--5.24%7.12%6.03%-乐歌股份(合同履约成本)--7.71%6.77%10.98%7.87%涛涛车业(海运费关税及其他)清关及海运费-进口关税--3.29%-5.66%5.38%1.21%9.28%8.48%2.92%11.55%--10.89%--敏华控股(境外运输及港口费用)进口关税---5.98%0.72%6.10%0.80%4.60%0.52%3.20%0.39%0.12-(0.37)(0.28)-(0.17)0.630.63-2.992.992.99-(4.54)(4.54)匠心家居(货代及运费)3.96%境外运费1.75%报关货代费1.02%4.21%1.67%1.06%4.56%2.02%0.69%4.19%1.75%0.70%3.53%1.42%0.70%4.05%1.67%0.70%永艺股份(运输费用)-2.14%2.94%2.77%2.47%3.36%共创草坪(运输港杂费及业务费)2.96%2.49%2.70%2.39%2.53%0.21(9.02)2）标蓝部分：假设匠心家居报关货代费维持2020年不变，所计算得到图表15：2019-2023年海运相关费用/营业收入与毛利率变动情况—o—致欧科技(海运费)—e—毛利率(右轴)37.9%31.6%22.9%20.0%20.0%2.9%2.9%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.5%3.4%3.4%2.1%2.1%海运费率变化则仅为0.12pct-0.21p更有当年产地和内外销模式切换幅度较大的企业，其海运费率反而有所下降，如匠12图表16：2020-2023年出口企业成本构成及净利率变动情况敏华控股3.36%3.36%3.19%0.39%3.59%4.56%0.52%0.80%12.55%0.72%11.99%5.98%6.10%45.98%47.51%50.28%51.04%11.13%14.38%12.50%11.70%10.23%13.98%11.00%10.50%4.66%2.74%4.89%2.97%9.95%5.18%9.18%6.02%原材料成本/收入员工成本/收入生产开支/收入境外运输及港口费用/收入关税/收入其他销售及分销开支/收入行政及其他开支/收入净利率共创草坪4.87%4.87%2.39%4.56%2.39%4.56%45.47%5.90%13.33%2.70%4.09%6.96%3.23%0.09%45.47%37.62%13.10%2.49%4.17%7.45%3.15%1.85%37.62%直接材料直接人工制造费用运输港杂费及业务费/收入销售费率管理费率研发费率财务费率净利率46.41%9.23%6.20%4.05%2.90%9.73%6.13%1.56%21.20%48.21%9.08%6.47%3.53%3.43%10.14%6.66%4.80%22.84%51.71%8.99%6.22%4.19%2.22%7.95%4.87%0.55%15.50%49.26%8.94%6.26%4.56%2.58%8.07%5.原材料/收入直接人工/收入制造费用/收入货代费、运费等/收入其他原材料/收入销售费率管理费率研发费率财务费率净利率乐歌股份21.29%27.74%21.29%27.74%3.46%5.40%103.46%5.40%108.20%4.48%0.91%6.82%8.