欧洲央行-对“通货膨胀-政策制定者和研究人员面临的挑战”小组的贡献（英）

Contributiontopanelon"Inflation–

Challengesfor

PolicymakersandResearchers"

2024CEBRAAnnualMeetingFrankfurtamMain

29August2024

PhilipR.Lane

MemberoftheExecutiveBoard

0

Policypath

Policyratepathandrisk-freecurve

(percentagesperannum)

Slopeoftherisk-freeyieldcurve

(percentagepoints)

EvolutionofEurosystembalancesheet

(trillionEUR)

一RealisedDFRDec2021Dec2022

4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0

-0.5

Sep2023Latest

202220232024202520262027

1.5

1

0.5

0

-1

10Y-2Y

20192021202327-Aug-24

APPPEPPTLTROs

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2020202120222023202423-Aug-24

Sources:BloombergandECBcalculations.

Notes:Thecut-offdatesforthedatausedforthe€STRforwardcurvesare17December2021,16December2022,15September2023,and27August2024.

Sources:BloombergandECBcalculations.

Notes:Theslopeoftherisk-freeyieldcurveiscalculatedasthedifferencebetweenthe10yandthe2yOISrates.

Latestobservations:27August2024.

Sources:ECBcalculations.

Notes:Purchaseprogrammesarebasedonbookvalueatamortisedcost.

Latestobservations:23August2024.

1

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Financialtransmission

Banklendingratestofirmsand

households,plusbankfunding

costs

(percentagesperannum)

Newbusinessvolumes-Firms

Newbusinessvolumes-Households

Outstandingamounts-Firms

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Outstandingamounts-HouseholdsBankfundingcost

Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jun-24

Evolutionofbankcreditstandards

(cumulatednetpercentagesofbanksreportinga

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

tighteningofcreditstandards)

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

Loanstofirms

Loanstohouseholdsforhousepurchase

201420162018202020222024Q2

Creditvolumestofirmsand

households

(annualpercentagechanges)

BankloanstohouseholdsBankloanstofirms

2021Q4

2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q4

2024Q1

2024Q2

Sources:ECB(BSI,MIR,MMSR)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Theindicatorforthetotalcostofborrowingforfirmsandhouseholdsare

calculatedbyaggregatingshort-termandlong-termratesusinga24-monthmoving

averageofnewbusinessvolumes.Thebankfundingcostseriesisaweightedaverageofnewbusinesscostsforovernightdeposits,depositsredeemableatnotice,time

deposits,bonds,andinterbankborrowing,weightedbyoutstandingamounts.ThelatestobservationsareforJune2024.

Sources:ECB(BLS)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Netpercentagesforcreditstandardsaredefinedasthedifferencebetweenthesumofthepercentagesofbanksresponding“tightenedconsiderably”and

“tightenedsomewhat”andthesumofthepercentagesofbanksresponding“easedsomewhat”and“easedconsiderably”.Cumulationstartsinthefirstquarterof2014.Thelatestobservationsarethesecondquarterof2024.

2

Source:ECB(BSI).

Notes:Bankloanstofirmsareadjustedforsales,securitisationandcashpooling.

Bankloanstohouseholdsareadjustedforsalesandsecuritisation.Thelatestobservationsareforthesecondquarterof2024.

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Economictransmission

RealG(lrctions

December2021projectionsDecember2022projectionsJune2024projections

GDPoutcome

5

4

3

2

1

0

202220232024

GDPgrowthcontributions

(annualisedquarter-on-quarterpercentagechangesandpercentagepointcontributions)

Netexports

ChangesininventoriesInvestment

GovernmentconsumptionPrivateconsumption

Q2Q3Q4

2021

Q2Q3Q4

2022

Q2Q3Q4

2023

Q2

2024

◆GDP

12

9

6

3

0

-3

Q1

Q1

Q1

Q1

-6

Consumption,realincomeandconfidence

(lhs:indexQ42019=100;rhs:netpercentage

balance)

Privateconsumption

Realdisposableincome

Consumerconfidence(rhs)

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

98

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

Dec-21Aug-22Apr-23Dec-23Aug-24

Sources:Eurostat;June2024,December2022andDecember2021Eurosystemstaffprojections;andECBcalculations.

Thelatestobservationsare2023forGDPand2024forprojections.

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:Annualisedcontributionsdonotexactlysumtoannualisedquarter-on-quarterGDPgrowthratesduetotransformationsoftheunderlyingdata.Thelatest

observationsareforthefirstquarterof2024forthecontributionsandthesecondquarterof2024forGDP.

Sources:EurostatandEuropeanCommission.

Note:Thelatestobservationsareforthefirstquarterof2024forprivateconsumptionanddisposableincome,andAugust2024forconsumerconfidence.

3

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Inflationexpectations

SPF:distributionoflonger-terminflation

expectations

(percentageofrespondents)

mQ42019Q42022 Q32024

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

≤1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.4≥2.5

Sources:SPFandECBcalculations.

Notes:Theverticalaxisshowspercentagesofrespondents,thehorizontalaxisshowstheHICPinflationrate.Longer-terminflationexpectationsrefertofourtofiveyearsahead.Thelatestobservationsareforthethirdquarterof2024.

Termstructureofinflationexpectationsfrom

pro(litre)rs

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Termstructureinflationexpectations(Q32021toQ32024)

HICP

20202022202420262028

Sources:Eurostat,ECBSPFandECBcalculations.

Notes:Termstructureofinflationexpectationsshow

expectationsfordifferenthorizonsinpastroundsoftheSPF.

Latestobservations:July2024forHICP.

4

ECBconsumer

e(cly)

Firms’expectationsabouteuroareainflationat

differenthorizons

(percentagesperannum)

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Perceptionofpastinflation

InflationexpectationsoneyearaheadInflationexpectationsthreeyearsaheadHICP

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Interquartilerange◆Median◆Mode

Jun-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

1

year

Jun-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

3

year

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-23

Jun-24

5year

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

Sources:EurostatandECBConsumerExpectationsSurvey(CES).

Notes:TheseriesrefertothemedianvalueforCES.

Latestobservations:July2024.

Sources:SurveyontheAccesstoFinanceofEnterprises(SAFE)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Survey-weightedmedian,modeandinterquartilerangesoffirms’expectationsabouteuroareainflationinoneyear,threeyearsandfiveyears,respectively.All

enterprises.Latestobservation:June2024.

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Sectoralshocks

HICPinflation

(year-on-yeargrowthrate,ppcontributions)

Negotiatedwagegrowth

(year-on-yeargrowthrate,ppcontributions)

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

InitialconditionsLabourmarketEnergy

Food

ShortagesProductivity

Lockdown

Residuals

HICPinflation

2020202120222023202420252026

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

InitialconditionsLabourmarketEnergy

Food

ShortagesProductivity

LockdownResiduals

Wagegrowth

2020202120222023202420252026

Source:ECBcalculationsbasedonArce,O.,Ciccarelli,M.,Kornprobst,A.andMontes-Galdón,C.(2024),“

Whatcausedtheeuroareapost-pandemicinflation?

”,OccasionalPaperSeries,No343,ECB

Notes:Thefiguresshowdecompositionsofthesourcesofseasonally-adjustedannualwagegrowthandHICPinflationbasedonthesolutionofthefullmodelandtheimpliedimpulseresponsefunctions.Theout-sampleprojectionisconstructedbyperformingaconditionalforecaststartingin2020Q1conditionalonrealisedvariablesbetween2020Q1and2024Q1andtechnicalassumptionsandinvertedresidualsbetween2024Q2and2026Q4suchthatHICPintheconditionalprojectionisequaltotheseasonally-adjustedJune2024BMPEprojection.AssumptionsfromtheJune2024BMPEbaselinecorrespondtoenergyandfoodpricesinflationandproductivitygrowth.Labourmarket

tightnessisassumedtoremainconstant.The“shortages”(measuredbytheGSCPI)areknownupto2024Q2andprojectedaccordingtoanAR(3)processthereafter.Thehistoricaldecompositiontreatstheprojectionasdataandiscarriedoutfrom2020Q1onwardstocomputethecontributionsoftheinitialconditionsandoftheexogenousvariables.

5

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HICPXX

Domesticinflation

Earlymovers

(15%)

Followers(38%)

Latemovers

(47%)

Domesticinflation

HICPexcludingunprocessedfoodandenergy

——HICPexcludingenergy——Trimmedmean(10%)Trimmedmean(30%)

SupercorePCCI

——PCCIexcludingenergy

6

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

5

4

3

2

1

0

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:HICPreferstoheadlineinflation,HICPXtoHICPexcludingfoodandenergy,HICPXXtoHICPexcludingfood,energy,travel-relateditemsandclothing,andPCCI

toPersistentandCommonComponentofInflation.Latestobservations:July2024.

Underlyinginflationandinflationmomentum

Domesticinflation:momentumofitemsanddecompositioninto

Momentumofinflationanditssubcomponents

(annualised3month-on-3monthpercentage

changes)

Measuulflation

early,followandlatemovers

(left:annualised3m-o-3mpercentagechanges,right:annualpercentagechangesandpercentage

pointcontributions)

——HICPX

8

4

0

-4

-8

HICPFood

Energy(rhs)

20

10

0

-10

-20

Jan-23Aug-23Jul-24

Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

HICPX

Goods

Services

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:Calculatedusingseasonallyadjusteddata.Thedashedredlinecorrespondstoservicesadjustedforeffectof49-euroticketintroducedinGermanyinMay2023.Latestobservation:July2024.

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Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Note:Taxonomybasedon“Theheterogeneousdevelopmentsofthecomponentsofeuro-areacoreinflation”,BoxinBancad’ItaliaEconomicBulletinNo.4/2023.

Latestobservation:July2024.

6

Labourcostdevelopments

Labourcostindicators

(annualpercentagechanges)

CompensationperemployeeCompensationperhour

Negotiatedwages

6

5

4

3

2

1

Labourcostindex

22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:Compensationperemployeeandperhourarecalculatedfromcalendarandseasonallyadjusted

data.Thelatestobservationsareforthesecondquarterof2024fornegotiatedwagesandforthelabour

costindexandforthefirstquarterof2024fortherest.

7

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5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

Wagetrackers

Euroareawagetracker

(annualpercentagechanges)

Waget(lrin)alysis

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

Wagetrackerincludingone-offpayments(JuneGovC)Wagetrackerincludingone-offpayments(JulyGovC)Indeedwagetracker

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Dec-24

----Forward-lookingwagetrackerincludingone-offs

----AllcontractsextendedwithgrowthrateasinlatestagreementsinQ224

Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Dec-26

Sources:DeutscheBundesbank,BancodeEspaña,theDutchemployerassociation(AWVN),OesterreichischeNationalbank,BankofGreece,Bancad’Italia,BanquedeFrance,andIndeed.

Notes:EuroareaaggregatebasedonDE,FR,IT,ES,NL,AT,GR,asofJuly2024.One-offpayments

arespreadover12monthsfromtheagreeddisbursementdate-smoothingtheimpactofone-off

paymentsonwagegrowth.Latestobservations:December2024fortheECBwagetracker,July2024forIndeedwagetracker.

8

Sources:ECBwagetrackerdatabase.Notes:Theforward-lookingwagetracker,depictedbyayellow

dashedline,weightsfutureeffectsofone-offpaymentswithrespecttothetotalcountry-specificcoverageandnotsolelyactivecoverageatanypointinthefuture.Thepurpledashedlineindicatestheforward-

lookingwagetrackerifallexpiringagreementsareprolongedwiththeircountry-specificgrowthratesinlatestagreementsinQ22024.

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Wageexpectations

Survey-basedwageexpectations

(annualpercentagechanges)

202420252026Longterm

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

(B)MPECTSSPFConsensusSAFE

Sour