联合国西亚经济社会委员会-2023年阿拉伯贸易：趋势和亮点 Arab trade in 2023 trends and highlights

Arabtradein2023:trendsandhighlights

UNITEDNATIONS

ESCWA

1

sharedprosperityDignifiedlife··-v

E/ESCWA/CL4.SIT/2024/Policybrief.1

©Rawf8/

ValueoftotalArabmerchandiseexportsin2023

ChangesinArab

-11.4%

Arabexports’shareofglobalexports

5.8%

exports

2Keymessages

Intra-regionaltradeplaysaninstrumentalroleinthedevelopmentofvitaleconomic

sectorsintheArabregionwhereitconstitutesmorethan75percentofexportmarketsfor

certaindomesticindustries.Tocapitalizeon

thisstrength,expandingtheexistingGreaterArabFreeTradeAreaagreementtoincludenew

boundarieswouldhelpcreatemorefavourableaccessforArabexports.

Exportsandmarketconcentration

constitutechallengesformanyArab

countries,whichoftenexportalimitedrangeofproductstoasmallnumberofmarkets.Totacklethis,itisessentialtoadopttrade

promotionstrategiestocontinuallydiversifyexportproducts

andmarkets.

Globalizationofmanufacturingoffersa

wealthofopportunitiesforArabcountries.Iftheyforgestrategicpartnershipsbeyondtheregion,theycanseizetheseopportunitiesandstaycompetitiveintheglobalmarket.Thiswillunlockaccesstogreentechnologiessuchas

next-generationbatteries,electric

vehiclesandsolarenergyequipment.

FoodsecurityposesasignificantchallengeintheArabregion.Totacklethisissue

effectively,itisimperativeforGovernmentstoincentivizefarmers,promotethe

cultivationofvitalcropsandessentialfood

items,anddiversifyimportsourcesto

maintainstablesupplies.

Exportstrends

Inkeepingwithglobaltradetrendsandrecoveryfrom

theCOVID-19pandemicslowdownin2020,Arabexports

experiencedsignificantgrowththroughout2021and2022,culminatinginaremarkable46.2percentsurgein2022,

surpassingtheglobalaverageof11.4percent.Nonetheless,thedecelerationinimportdemandfromkeyeconomies

primarilyinEurope,NorthAmericaandAsia,accompaniedbydecliningcommodityprices,ledtoa11.4percentdropintotalArabexports,whichreached$1,388.6billionin2023

(figure1).Thisdownturnhadadverseeffectsonthebalanceofpayments,particularlyimpactingoil-exportingArab

nations,partiallyreducingtheirbenefitsfromtheprecedingtwoyearsbutatthesametimeimprovingthetrade

balancesofthemorediversifiedeconomieslikeJordan,MauritaniaandMorocco.

Figure1.TotalmerchandisetradeoftheArabregion,2012–2023

Tradevaluein($billion)

1,800

1,500

1,200

900

600

300

0

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

TotalexportsTotalimports

3

TheArabregionisasignificantexporterofenergyproducts,predominantlycrudeoilandnaturalgas.

Therelativelylowercrudeoilpricesin2023witha10percentdecrease,averaging$83perbarrel,andthe

63percentdeclineinnaturalgaspricesfromtheir2022levels,impactedthetotalvalueoftheregion’sexports.

Withnearlyhalfoftheregion’scountriesrichinoilandgasresources,theirexportsofcrudeoilandgascollectivelyaccountonaveragefor60percentoftheregion’stotalexports.

Percentagechange(%)

Figure2.Percentagechangeofexportsandimportsforselectedcountriesin2023

ChinaEuropean

Union

LebanonJordanMorocco

UnitedStates

SaudiArabia

-20

-25

-10

-15

-22

-22

-14

-21

-12

10

-5

-6

-6

-5

-5

-2

-2

-1

0

5

9

2

ImportsExports

Figure2illustratesthediminishingglobal

demandsobservedacrossdeveloped

economiesduring2023.Externalimportsin

Europeexperienceda14percentreduction,

theUnitedStatessawa12percentdecline,

andChinarecordeda6percentdecrease,withtheirexportsslightlyaffected.

TheArabregionexperiencedasignificantdropinexportsduring2023.Forinstance,exportsfromQatarsufferedthemostsubstantial

decreaseof49percent,followedbySaudi

Arabiawitha22percentdecline,Algeria

witha21percentdecline,andKuwaitwith

a17percentdecrease.Thesedeclineswereattributedtolowerglobaldemandsandfallingenergyprices.LebanonandEgyptexperienceddeclinesintheirexportsof21percentand

17percent,respectively.

©istockenanuchit/

4

Arabenergyexportsarehighlyconcentratedinforeign

marketswithroughly60percentflowingtoeastandsouth-eastAsia.Chinaaloneaccountsforabout20percentof

Arabenergyexports,followedbyIndiawith12.4percent,

andJapanandKoreajointlyaccountingfor20percent.Asfornon-oilandgasexportsfromtheArabregion,theleadingsectorsaremainlypetrochemicalproducts,fertilizersandotherchemicals,basemetals,preciousstonesandmetals,agriculturalandprocessedfoodproducts.Theregionalsohasprominentre-exportingactivitiesmainlyinelectrical

machineryandequipment,preciousstonesandmetals,andvehiclesandspareparts.TheUnitedArabEmiratesisthemainre-exporterintheArabregion.

Figure3.Non-oilandgasexportsoftheArabregion,2022–2023

70bn

60bn

50bn

40bn

30bn

20bn

10bn

0bn

Petrochemical

products

Basemetals

products

FoodProducts

Electrical

machineryand

equipment

Textileproducts

Vehiclesand

spareparts

Machineryand

mechanical

appliances

Pharmaceutical

products

Commoditygroup

2022

2023

Arabnon-oilandgasexportsbouncedback

stronglysincetheCOVID-19slumpin2020butsloweddownin2023.ComparedtotheArabenergyexportsthatdeclinedsubstantiallyin2023,non-oilandgasexportsofnationaloriginshowedmixedtrendsbutoveralldeclinedby4percent.

Thelargestdropswereinthepetrochemical

industries(18percent),followedbythebase

metalandtextilesexports(9percent)(figure3).

Exportsofnationalindustryproductslikeelectrical

machineryandequipment,pharmaceuticalsandfoodstuffsshowedremarkableincreasescomparedtotheir2022

levels.Electricalmachineryindustriesexperiencedthe

highestexportincreaserateof30percentpercentin2023.BackedbysizableinvestmentsinmanyArabcountries,

pharmaceuticalexportsalsoincreasedby14percent.

KeydestinationsofArabnon-oilandgasexports,primarilySaudiArabia,IndiaandtheUnitedStatessawsignificant

growthduringtheCOVID-19recoveryperiod,whileexportstotheUnitedArabEmirates,TürkiyeandChinaalsoincreased,albeitataslowerpacewithaslightslowdowninnon-oil

exportsin2023.

SaudiArabiawasthetopexportdestinationmarketfornon-oilandgasproductsin2023,importing$41billion,followedbyIndiaat$40billion,andtheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedArabEmiratesat$31and$28billion,respectively.

Non-oilandgasexports(Billion$)

SaudiArabia

India

USA

UAE

Türkiy

China

201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Year

45B

40B

35B

30B

25B

20B

15B

10B

5B

0B

e

Figure4.TopmarketsofArabnon-oilandgasexportsduring2013–2023

TheleadingexportstoSaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArab

Emiratesin2023weremachinery,appliancesandelectricequipment,basemetalsandjewelryandpreciousmetals.ExportstoIndiaincludedunwroughtdiamondandgoldandfertilizers.Arabnon-oilexportstotheUnitedStates

includedbasemetals,textiles,fertilizers,andpreciousmetalsandstones.

Imports5

Incontrasttoglobaltrendsin2023,theArabregion

experiencedasurgeinimportsreaching$1,198.3billion,drivenbyincreaseddemandprimarilyfromoil-exportingcountries.Thismarkeda9.7percentyear-on-year

increase(figure1).TheUnitedArabEmiratesandSaudiArabiaaccountedformuchofthisrise,withtheirimportsgrowingby35percentand9percent,respectively,andtoalesserextent,Algeria,KuwaitandIraq.However,

mostcountrieswithmorediversifiedeconomiessuch

asMorocco,Tunisia,JordanandEgypt,leastdevelopedcountriesandcountriesgoingthroughpoliticalinstabilitysawtheirimportsdeclinemoderatelybybetween4

and10percent.OftheleastdevelopedcountriesintheArabregion,onlytheSudansawitsimportssurgeby42percent.Lebanonexperiencedarounda21percentdecreaseinimports.

commoditygroupsexceptfoodproducts,petrochemicalsandtextiles.Mechanicalandelectricalmachinery,

equipmentandappliancesaccountedforthehighestsharewith21percentoftheArabregion’simports,amountingto$252billion(figure5).

Foodimportsweresecondwithavalueof$132.4billion,

accountingfor11.1percentoftheregion’stotalimportsin2023.Thethirdgroupconsistsofvehiclesandspareparts.Sharereached8.4percentoftotalimports.Crudeoil,oilderivativesandnaturalgasaccountedfor7.4percentoftotalArabimportsin2023.Importsofpharmaceuticals,

textiles,andfurnitureexhibitedthelowestshare.

Overall,in2023,importincreaseswereseeninmost

Figure5.TheArabregion’smajorimportsin2023

7%

21%

11%

2%

7%

8%

4%2%

BasemetalsproductsFoodproducts

Petrochemicalproducts

Petroleumandgasproducts

PharmaceuticalproductsTextileproducts

VehiclesandsparepartsMachinery,equipment

andappliances

ImportsfromChinatoppedtheArabimportslistat$207billion,accountingfor17.3percent,followedbytheUnitedArabEmiratesat8.6percent,theUnitedStatesat6.2percentandIndiaat5.7percent.

In2023,theregionimportedmachinery,equipmentandappliancesfromChina,withcellphoneimportsalonereaching$25billion.ImportsfromtheUnitedArabEmiratesincluded$8.3billionincellphones,

$16.3billioninpetroleumderivativesand$11.4

billioninjewelry.Theregionalsoimported$6billioninturbojetsandturbines,$14.7billioninmachineryandequipment,and$10.8billioninvehiclesfromtheUnitedStates.Itimported$8.4billioninpetroleumderivatives,$4.8billionincellphones,and$4.1billioninjewelryfromIndia.

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V

6Importanceofintra-regionaltrade

TheGreaterArabFreeTradeAreaagreement,whichcameintoeffectin1998,regulatesandfacilitatesintra-regionaltradebetweentheArabcountries.Whiletheshareofintra-regionaltradeintheArabregionstoodat14percentoftotalexportsin2022–2023,thetradeofnon-oilandgasproductsamongtheArabcountriesincreasedsubstantiallyto32.7percent.

Non-oilandgasexports(Billion$)

Saudi

Arabia

UAE

Egypt

Oman

Qatar

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Year

5BBahrain

0B

60B55B50B45B40B35B30B25B20B15B10B

Figure6.Leadingcontributorstointra-regionalexportsduring2013–2023

SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirates

arethemajorexportersofnationalexports

totheArabregion,excludingre-exports.

ThereisawideninggapwithotherexporterslikeEgypt,Qatar,OmanandBahrainwhere

SaudiArabiaexports$53.7billionwhileOmanexports$8.5billion(figure6).Dataalsoshowtherecoveryofintra-regionaltradeafterthe2020slowdownandthereturntothepre-2020levelsdespitethe2023decline.

Intra-regionalimportsexhibitaparalleltrend,withthe

leadingexportersalsoservingasthemainimporters.

However,SaudiArabiaandUnitedArabEmiratesstandoutastheleadingimportersfromtheArabregion,accountingfor$30billioneachin2023.Recentdataindicatethat

intra-regionaltradesignificantlycontributestothe

expansionoftradeassociatedwithdomesticindustriesintheArabcountries.

Figure7.Shareofintra-regionalexportstototalexportsbyindustryinselectArabcountries,2023

JordanAgriculture

Pharmaceutical

LebanonAgricultureProcessedfoodstuff

SudanAgriculture

Gold

EgyptBasemetals

Preparedfoodstuff

SaudiArabiaBasemetalsPreparedfoodstuff

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

Shareofthetotalindustry’sexports

7

Agriculturalproducts,processedfoods,pharmaceuticalsandbasemetalindustriesareamongthenational

economicsectorsexperiencinggrowththroughintra-regionaltrade.Toillustrate,theEgyptianmetalindustryexports37percentofitstotaloutputwithintheregionandSaudiArabiaexports27percentwithintheregion.

ThesharesofagriculturalexportsfromJordan,LebanonandtheSudandestinedtoArabmarketsconstitute85percent,75percent,and61percentoftheirrespectivetotalagriculturalexports.

TheArabregionasanet-foodimportingregion

TheArabregionisanet-foodimportingregionasArab

countriesimportmorefoodproductsthantheyexport.Theregionimported$132.5billionoffoodproductsin2023whileexporting$41.5billion,resultinginafoodimportdeficitof$90.9billion.

TheArabregionnet-fooddeficitchallenge

isanongoingchronicphenomenon,which

Figure8.Net-foodimportsoftheArabregiontrendsduring2013–2023

worsenedin2022,escalatingby26.4percentcomparedtorelativelystablelevelsobservedoverthepastdecade.However,Arabfood

importsslowedin2023,improvingthenet-

foodbalanceto$90.9billion.SaudiArabiahadthelargestfoodimportdeficitat$21.3billion,followedbyEgyptat$9billionandtheUnitedArabEmiratesat$8.3billion.TheComoros,

DjiboutiandMauritaniarecordeddeficitsunder$1billion.

120

100

Valuein$billionandchangein(%)

80

60

ThesignificantriseinthevalueoftheArabregion’sfood

importsseenin2022maybeattributedpartlytothe

Russian-Ukrainianconflict.Thisconflictledtoasurgein

foodcommoditypricestounprecedentedlevelsbefore

subsidingduringthelatterhalfoftheyear.ManyArab

countrieswereatriskduetotheirhighrelianceonimportsofgrainsandvegetableoilsfromUkraineandtheRussianFederation.Forinstance,in2021,Lebanonimported85

percentofitswheatgrainsfromthesecountries,while

Egyptdependedonthemfor77percent,Mauritaniafor

49percent,andTunisiafor37percent.Thesituationwaseasedin2023withthefallingpricesoffoodcommoditiesthatledtoadecreaseinthefoodimportsbillby15percent,whilediversificationofimportsourceswasadoptedby

someArabcountries,supplementedbypromotingdomesticagriculture,suchasinEgyptandLebanon.

40

20

0

-20

-40

201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Net-foodimportsChange(%)

8

Arabregionimportsofgrainsandvegetableoilsurgedby27percent,climbingfrom$37.2billionin2021to

$47.2billionin2022,beforesettlingat$40billionin2023.GrainsexportsfromUkraineandtheRussianFederationaccountedfor26.2percentoftheArabregion’sgrainsimportsin2021.Theyweresubstitutedduring2022and2023byimportslargelyfromFrance,Brazil,Romaniaand

Indiaduetothedisruptionsofwar.In2023,theshare

importedtheRussianFederationandUkrainewasataround12percent.Althoughthisshiftalleviatedthesituation

temporarily,itraisesconcernsaboutfoodsecurityintheArabregion.Addressingthisnecessitatesalong-termstrategyaimedatenhancingresourcestobolsterfoodproductionwithintheregion.

Tradeingreentechnologyproducts

Followingglobaltrendsandmarketneeds,recenttrade

statisticsintheArabregionsuggestanincreasing

preferenceforimportinggreentechnologyproductssuchassolarenergyrelatedproducts,electricvehicles(EVs),

andenergy-efficientlight-emittingdiode(LED)lighting

solutions.Thesegreentechnologiesdiminishwasteand

emissions,conserveresourcesthroughenhancedenergyefficiency,andpromotesustainableconsumptionpractices.

Figure9.Greenimports:acomparisonofhybrids,EVs,LEDs,andsolarpanels

Valueofimports($)

4,000M

SolarpanelsHybridvehicles

3,000M

Electricvehicles

2,000M

LEDlights

1,000M

0M

2018201920202021202220232024

Year

Since2012,therehasbeenacontinuous

upwardtrendintheimportationofsolarpanelsinArabcountries.Followingadeclinein2020,importfiguressurgedbyapproximately500

percentinsubsequentyears,culminatinginarecordhighof$3.7billionin2023.TheimportsvaluesofLEDlightshavebeensteadilyrising,exceeding$1.2billionin2023.

BothhybridandEVimportshavewitnessedsignificantgrowthsince2018.In2023,hybridvehicleimportssawaremarkable80percentsurge,reaching$3.6billion.EVimports

alsoclimbedin2023,reaching$2.7billion,reflectinga36percentincrease.

Chinaaccountedfor55percentofallelectriccarsimportedbyArabcountries,withtheUnitedStatesofAmericaandGermanyfollowingwith14percentand13percent,respectively.

Additionally,Chinaemergedastheprimarysupplierofsolar

panelstotheArabregion,withitsshareexceeding90percent.Theimportsofhybridvehicles,however,areledbyJapanwithashareof28.5percent,Germanywith26.2percent,andtheUnitedStateswith10.2percent.Thetrendisexpectedtogainmomentuminthecomingyears.

Non-traditionalexports:successstories

DespitethevibrantcharacteristicsandresourcewealthoftheArabregion,tradepatternshavelargelyremainedunchanged.Still,overthepasttwodecades,someArabcountrieshaveenactedstrategicpoliciestoencourage

foreigninvestmentandcultivatepartnershipswithglobalcompanies.Thesecasesunderscorethesignificanceof

proactiveinvestmentandtradepoliciesandtheirsupportiverolesinthedevelopmentofnon-traditionalexports.

·Morocco:Automotiveindustry

InMorocco,governmentinitiativesandforeign

investmentsarekeydriversoftheautomotiveindustry’sgrowth,elevatingthecountry’spositioninmanufacturingwithinAfricaandEurope.Partnershipswithleading

globalcarmanufacturershavepavedthewayforthe

establishmentofanunconventionalindustryinMorocco,furtherreinforcedbytheinaugurationofanEVfactoryin2022.Moroccanautomotiveexportsnowreachover65

globalmarkets,withEuropeastheprimarydestination.Remarkably,exportssurgedfrom$65millionin2010toanimpressive$6.4billionby2022,andfurtherincreasedby30percentin2023.

SaudiArabia:

Pharmaceuticalindustry

Inrecentyears,SaudiArabiahasbeeninvestingheavilyinbuildingitspharmaceuticalandbiotechnology

capabilities.Theseinvestmentsincludeestablishing

researchinstitutionsandbiotechnologyparksand

partnershipswithinternationalpharmaceutical

companies.Thedevelopmentofthepharmaceuticalandbiotechnologyindustryalignswithbroadereconomic

diversificationgoalsforSaudiArabia,asoutlinedintheVision2030plan.In2023,SaudiArabiawitness