2024年绿氢衍生物的全球贸易：监管、标准化和认证趋势报告（英文版）-国际可再生能源署IRENA

Globaltradein

greenhydrogenderivatives

Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification

MethanoI

NH3

NH3

3

3

Supportingthe

©IRENA2024

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.

ISBN:978-92-9260-619-0

Citation:IRENA(2024),Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives:Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwasauthoredbyKaranKochhar,DeeptiSiddhanti,JaidevDhavle,ArnovandenBosandJamesWalkerundertheguidanceofFranciscoBoshellandRolandRoesch(Director,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre).ThereportalsobenefitedfromcontributionsfromJeffreyTchouambeandStevenGo(ex-IRENA).

IRENAalsowouldliketoexpresssincereappreciationtothefollowingtechnicalexpertswhoreviewedthereportandprovidedinsightfulfeedback,specificcommentsandconstructivesuggestions:FlorianAusfelder(Dechema),RutaBaltause(EuropeanCommission),TrevorBrown(AmmoniaEnergyAssociation),HarrietCulver(UKgovernment),KatherineDavis(UKgovernment),GregDolan(MethanolAssociation),SmeetaFokeer(UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization),WillHall(InternationalEnergyAgency),MarcMelaina(USgovernment),GarethMottram(UKgovernment),MarcMoutinho(MissionPossiblePartnership),DorotheaNold(HIFGlobal),FabioPassaro(ClimateBondsInitiative),AndrewPurvis(WorldSteelAssociation),MariaSandqvist(InternationalOrganizationforStandardization),SunitaSatyapal(USgovernment),FionaSkinner(UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization),JanStelter(NOW),AndreiTchouvelev(InternationalOrganizationforStandardization)andLachlanWright(RockyMountainInstitute).AdditionalinsightswereprovidedindiscussionswithTudorFlorea(Frenchgovernment),AlexandraUllmann(Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik)andOscarPearce(AmmoniaEnergyAssociation).

ThereportbenefitedfromreviewsbyseveralIRENAstaff:EmanueleBianco,Ann-KathrinLipponer,LuisJaneiroandPaulKomor.

PublicationsandeditorialsupportwereprovidedbyFrancisFieldandStephanieClarke.ThereportwaseditedbyEmilyYouerswithdesignbyStrategicAgenda.

ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizonEuropeprogrammeundergrantagreement101075095andavoluntarycontributionfromtheGovernmentofNorway.ThisreportalsoservesasaninputundertheBreakthroughAgenda’sHydrogenBreakthroughpriorityactiononcertificationandstandards.

AboutIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture,andservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

Disclaimer

Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.

TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.

三H2

Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification

Contents

A

bbreviations 5

Executivesummary 6

1.Introductionandscopeofthisreport 8

2.Regulationslandscapeforhydrogenanditsderivatives 14

3.Accounting,StandardsandCertifications:TheFundamentals 25

4.Surveyingthelandscapeofaccountingstandardsandmethodologies,

andcertificationsschemes 3

1

5.Summary,conclusions,andrecommendationsforenhancingmarket

developmentandtradeofcommodities 5

0

References

58

Figures

Figure1Overviewofthehydrogenandderivativesvaluechains 13

Figure2Emissionsintensitylevelsunderwell-to-wheel(top)andwell-to-gate,

(bottom)underH2regulationsinselectedregionsandcountries 1

5

Figure3Globalsupply-costcurveofgreenhydrogenfortheyear2050

underoptimisticassumptions 2

1

Figure4Flowofinformationtocomplywithregulationsforimportinghydrogen

anditsderivatesintotheEuropeanUnion 2

4

Figure5Definitionsandkeyelementsforstandardsandcertificationschemes 2

5

Figure6Typicalsystemboundariesforhydrogenandderivativessupplychains 29

Figure7Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesforhydrogen 31

Figure8Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesforammonia 39

Figure9Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesformethanol 42

Figure10Standardsandcertificationsforthechemicalssector 46

Figure11Landscapeofdifferentinitiativesforironandsteel 51

Figure12Summarydepictingthehydrogenandderivativevaluechains,

overlayedwiththeemissionsmonitoringscopesrequiredunderthe

regulatoryframeworksdiscussedinthisreport 5

5

3

Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives

Tables

Table1OverviewoftheDelegatedActsonRFNBOs 17

Table2Overviewofdefinitionsofrenewableandlowemissionshydrogen

anditsderivativesinselectedmarkets

20

Table3Obligationsforimportersofhydrogenanditsderivatesfrom

CBAMinthetransitionalperiod 2

2

Table4Summarystandardsandmethodologiesforlow-emissionshydrogen 3

6

Table5Summaryofcertificationschemesforlowemissionshydrogen 3

7

Table6SummaryofstandardsandmethodologiesforAmmonia 4

0

Table7OverviewofcertificatesusedforAmmonia 4

1

Table8Summaryofstandardsandmethodologiesformethanol 43

Table9Summaryofcertificationschemesformethanol 43

Table10Summaryofstandardsandmethodologiesforironandsteel 4

7

Table11Summaryofcertificationschemesforironandsteel

49

Table12Mainsustainabilityrequirementsforleading

hydrogen-consumingjurisdictions 5

3

Boxes

Box1Terminology

8

Box2CarbonsourcingrequirementsintheEuropeanUnion 1

8

Box3ISO/TS19870:2023–Hydrogentechnologies—Methodologyfor

determiningthegreenhousegasemissionsassociatedwiththeproduction,

conditioningandtransportofhydrogentoconsumptiongate 3

2

Box4Regulationandcertificationofemissionsinthechemicalsector 4

4

Box5Provisionsforthederivativesectorsinregulation 5

2

4

三H2

Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification

Abbreviations

AEAAmmoniaEnergyAssociationIRS(UnitedStates)InternalRevenueService

InternationalSustainabilityandCarbonCertification

AmericanIronandSteelInstitute

ISCC

AISI

ANABAmericanNationalAccreditationBoardISOInternationalStandardsOrganization

CBAMCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismkgKilogramme

CCEE(Brazil)ElectricEnergyTradingChamberkgCO₂eqKilogrammeofcarbondioxideequivalent

CH₃OHMethanolkgH₂Kilogrammeofhydrogen

Certificationsystemofthe(Polish)InstytutNaftyiGazu

Carbondioxide

KZRINiG

CO₂

COPConferenceofthePartiesMJMegajoule

DeutscherKraftfahrzeug-Überwachungs-Verein

DEKRA

MtMegatonne

DNVDetNorskeVeritasNH₃Ammonia

DRIDirectreducedironREDRenewableEnergyDirective

Renewablefuelofnon-biologicalorigin

ETS

Emissionstradingscheme

RMI

RockyMountainInstitute

EU

EuropeanUnion

RSB

RoundtableonSustainableBiomaterials

EUR

Euro(currency)

RTFO

(UnitedKingdom)RenewableTransportFuelObligation

G7

GroupofSeven

SAF

Sustainableaviationfuels

GHG

Greenhousegas

SBTi

ScienceBasedTargetsInitiative

GREET

GreenhouseGases,RegulatedEmissions,andEnergyUseinTransportationmodel

TfSPCF

TogetherforSustainabilityProductCarbonFootprints

GSCC

GlobalSteelClimateCouncil

UK

UnitedKingdom

IAS

InternationalAccreditationService

UKAS

UnitedKingdomAccreditationService

IEA

InternationalEnergyAgency

US

UnitedStatesofAmerica

IMPCA

InternationalMethanolProducersandConsumersAssociation

USD

UnitedStatesdollar

IPHE

InternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomy

WEF

WorldEconomicForum

IRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyWTOWorldTradeOrganization

eINaElektronischerNachhaltigkeitsnachweisRFNBO

5

Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives

Executivesummary

Tradeinhydrogenisanemergingenergytransitionpriority–andapotentialeconomicopportunity–forcountriesaroundtheworld.WorkingjointlywiththeRockyMountainInstitute,IRENApreviouslypublishedastocktakereportthatanalysedtheroleofcertificationschemesandregulatoryframeworksindrivingtheanticipatedglobalmarketsforgreenhydrogen(IRENA,2023a).Theseglobalmarketsareexpectedtoemergeasaresultofthecompetitiveadvantageinrenewableresourcesaswellasinlandandwateravailabilitythatmaypermitgreenhydrogentobeproducedatlowercostinsomeregionsthaninothers.Certificationschemescanbeusedtoprovidetheconfidencerequiredbyconsumersandregulatorsthatanyhydrogenbeingtradedinternationallysatisfiessustainabilityrequirements.Suchconfidenceisessentialinde-riskinginternationalmarkets.

Analysisisincreasinglyshowingthatderivativecommoditiesproducedusinggreenhydrogen,suchaslow-emissionammonia,low-emissionmethanol,andironandsteel,willplayasignificantroleintheglobaltradeflowsassociatedwithhydrogen.Movinggaseousgreenhydrogenitselfoverlongdistancesmaybetechnicallychallengingduetoitslowvolumetricenergydensity;itsderivativesmaythereforebeeasiertoshipintercontinentally.Asaresult,certificationschemesmaybeincreasinglyrequiredtoguaranteetheattributesofthederivatives.Regulatoryframeworksmayevolvetosetrequirementsforacceptablelevelsofgreenhousegasemissionintensityassociatedwiththeproductionof“green”orlow-emissionammoniaormethanol.ThisreportisintendedtoextendIRENA’spriorstocktakeofglobalgreenhydrogencertificationsandregulationstoderivativecommoditiesandtoprovideinsightintotheinteractionsandlinksbetweentheschemesandframeworksdevelopedforgreenhydrogenandthosedevelopedforitsderivatives.

Thisreportsummarisesthestatusofregulatoryframeworkdevelopmentinmanyofthefirst-movermarkets.Regulatorsinthesemarketsareestablishingrulesandexpectationsforwhatcanbeconsideredlow-emissionhydrogen,ammonia,methanolorsteel.Someoftheseframeworksaredesignedtosetrulesandmarketconditionsprimarilyfordomesticproduction,whileotherssetrulesforwhattypesofcommoditiescanbeimported.Severalcountriesandregionshavedevelopedregulationsforhydrogenwithsimilaremissionaccountingmethodologies.However,theallowableemissionthresholdsdifferamongtheseregulations,meaningthatproducersmayneedtoadheretomultipleanddifferingrequirementswhenconsideringexport.Whilethedevelopmentofregulationsisquicklyprogressingforhydrogen,IRENAanalysissuggeststhatprogressindevelopingregulationsforitsderivativeslagssubstantially.Giventhesignificantroleforeseenforthesederivativesininternationaltrade,thiscomparativelackofregulationscouldbeabarriertointernationalmarketdevelopment,andpolicymakersshouldconsiderthetreatmentofderivativeswhendevelopingtheirpolicyframeworks.

TheEuropeanUnion(EU)hasbeenamongthejurisdictionsquickesttodevelopdetailedsustainabilityrequirementsforgreenhydrogenanditsderivatives.EUrulesrequiredemonstrationthatthevolumesofsuchcommoditiesproducedorimportedreflectatleasta70%emissionsavingrelativetofossil-derivedbenchmarks,andproducersmustdemonstratethattherenewablepowerusedforhydrogenproductionisnew(notdivertedfromotheruses)andcanbecorrelatedintimeandlocationtotheproductionplant,toconfirmthatthepowerwasgeneratedspecificallyforhydrogenproduction.TheserequirementsapplytoproducerswithintheEUandtoproducersinothercountriesseekingtoexporttotheEU.Theserulesalsoextendtothederivativesofgreenhydrogen,iftheyarebeingusedasfuels.

6

三H2

Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification

Certificationschemeownersarealsoincorporatingthedatacollection,analysisandaccountingmethodologiesthatwillneedtobefollowedtoprovidetheevidencerequiredforcertification.Thisreportincludestabulatedsummariesoftheschemesindevelopmentacrossthehydrogen,ammonia,methanol,andironandsteelsectors.Insummarisingandcomparingtheseschemes,IRENAhasfoundsignificantheterogeneitiesintheemissionmeasurementboundariesandexpectedemissionthresholdsspecifiedforcertification.Fundamentallydifferentapproachesarealsobeingtakeninthesectorsconsidered.Whiletherearegoodreasonsforthesedifferences,notleastthattheshapeofthemarketsforthevariouscommoditiesisverydifferent,thisheterogeneityislikelytobechallengingforproducers,introducingadministrativecomplexity–especiallyiftheyareseekingtosupplymultiplemarketsconcurrently.

Thisreportproposesrecommendationsforhowregulatoryframeworksandcertificationschemesforgreenhydrogenanditsderivativescanbemadeinteroperable.Internationalcollaborationandtransparencyareofcoursekeyinthis.Anotherkeyrecommendationisforpolicymakersfromdifferentjurisdictionstoalignthemethodologiesacceptedforcalculatingtheemissionintensityofgreenhydrogenanditsderivatives.Thereportalsoacknowledgestheutilityofpre-certificationactivitiesandothercapacity-buildinginitiativestosupportproducersinunderstandingtheregulatoryrequirementsagainstwhichtheymustreport.

Summaryofrecommendations

1.Regulatorsshouldconsidertheimpactoftheframeworkstheyaredevelopingonthederivativecommoditymarketsandshouldaimtoensurethattheframework’srequirementsarerobusttothecharacteristicsanduniqueneedsofthosemarkets.Thisshouldincludeconsiderationofcarbon-sourcingrequirementsforlow-emissionmethanol.

2.Interoperabilityshouldbethegoalofinternationaleffortstoalignregulatoryrequirementsorachievemutualrecognitionofcertificationschemes.Thisinteroperabilityshouldideallyextendtohydrogenanditsderivatives.

3.Tominimisethechallengesforpotentialexportersinnavigatingregulatoryandcertificationschemes,schemeownersanddevelopersareencouragedtoworkdirectlywithproducers,forexamplethroughpre-certificationactivities,toincreaseproducerunderstandingofwhatisrequiredofthem.

4.Transparencyandspecificityofrequirementsareessentialindrivinggoodoutcomesviacertification.Schemeownersanddevelopersareencouragedtoprovideclearanddetailedguidanceonacceptedmethodologies(andunderpinningrequirements).

5.Wherealignmentofrequirementsisnotpossible,thefocusonengagementviainternationalforashouldbeonworkingtowardsinteroperabilityofschemes.

6.Theremaybearoleforagreementstodevelopcommonstandardsinthehydrogen,ammoniaandmethanolsectors,aswasachievedintheironandsteelsectorbytheSteelStandardsPrinciples.

7

Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives

1.Introductionandscope

Demandforgreenhydrogenanditsderivativesissettogrowexponentially,drivenbyclimatepoliciesandassociatedindustrystrategies.Policymakersandend-usesectoroperatorswantreasonablelevelsofassurancethatthehydrogenand/orderivativestheysupportandusearelowemission.Thepurposeofthisreportistoevaluatethestatusofemergingregulatoryframeworks,internationalstandardsandcertificationschemesforhydrogenandhydrogen-derivedcommodities.ThisreportbuildsonpriorworkundertakenjointlybyIRENAandtheRockyMountainInstitute,whichgaveanoverviewofemergingframeworksforthedevelopmentofglobalgreenhydrogenmarkets(IRENA,2023a).Thisreportupdatesthatoverviewandwidensthescopetoalsoconsiderthehydrogen-derivedcommoditysectors.Regulation,standardisationandcertificationarekeypillarsinbuildingconfidenceinthemarketsforgreenhydrogenandlow-emissionderivatives.Thisreportalsoincludesrecommendationsforhowtheseframeworksandschemescanbealignedormadeinteroperabletosupportthegrowthofglobalmarkets.

Arrivingatcommondefinitionsandasharedunderstandingofterminologyisfundamentalwhenaligninginternationalframeworksinsuchmarkets.However,theterms“greenhydrogen”and“low-emissionderivative”themselvesrequiredefinitionduetothetechnicalspecificitywithwhichtheyareintended.Box1setsouttheterminologyadoptedinthisreport.

Box1Terminology

Theplethoraofcoloursusedtodescribehydrogenproducedundervariouscircumstanceshasbeenwelldiscussed.Whilethis“hydrogenrainbow”providesengineersandcommentatorswiththetechnicalshorthandtoenablediscussion,itcanalsocauseconfusion.Addressingthisconfusionisoneofthemainprioritiesforstandardisation,andmanyregulatoryframeworksforhydrogenhavebeenbasedonnationalorregionaldefinitionsof“low-emission”hydrogen.Thisreportconcernsthefullhydrogenvaluechain,aswellastheroleforhydrogenasaninputandfeedstockinderivativecommodityvaluechains.“Greenhydrogen”referstohydrogenproducedviarenewablypoweredelectrolysis,anelectrochemicalprocessinwhichwatermoleculesaresplittogeneratehydrogen.Greenhydrogenisreferredtothroughoutthisreportduetoitsfocusontherenewableenergysectors.Somesectionsofthereportrefermoregenerallyto“hydrogen”,meaningalltypesofhydrogen,whensettingoutrelevantcontextorwhenencompassingthebroaderhydrogensector.Theterm“low-emissionhydrogen”isusedwhendescribingregulatoryframeworksorstandardsthatincludehydrogenproducedfromfossilsourcesalongsidetheuseofabatementtechnologies,suchascarboncaptureandstorage.Whendiscussinggreenhydrogenasafeedstockandinputintheammonia,methanol,andironandsteelvaluechains,theterm“lowemission”isusedfortheproductcommodities.Carbonplaysaroleinthesevaluechains,especiallyinmethanolproduction,sothisterminologyispreferredinplaceofdiscussingthe“decarbonisation”ofthesecommodities.Furtherterminologyandtechnicalconceptsrelevanttospecificregulatoryframeworks,standardisationmeasuresandcertificationschemesarediscussedanddefinedintherelevantsectionsthroughoutthereport.

8

三H2

Trendsinregulation,standardisationandcertification

Thisintroductorychapterofthereportprovidesanoverviewofthemarketsandtypicalsupplychainsofthecommoditiesdiscussed,providingcontextonthesizeofthecurrentandpotentialglobalmarketsandthemostrelevantsustainabilitychallengesfacedbyactorsalongthesesupplychains.Chapter2focusesontheregulatoryframeworksbeingdeveloped,includinginregionsthatareleadingintermsofambitiousdemand-sidetargetsfortheuseofthecommoditiesconsidered,andpresentstheassociatedminimumsustainabilityrequirementsregulatorsaresetting.Chapter3discussesfundamentalconceptsinthecontextofstandardisationandcertification,describingthemechanismsthatcanormustbeusedbymarketparticipantstodemonstratethesustainabilitycharacteristicsoftheirproducts(e.g.emissionaccountingstandardsandcertificationschemes).Chapter4describesthemainexistingemissionaccountingstandardsandcertificationschemes(bothvoluntaryandobligatory)foreachcommodity,aswellasforthechemicalsmanufacturedfromthefeedstocksdiscussed.Thechapterconcludeswithanoverviewofthemainchallengesandopportunitiesforindustryplayersinadoptingtheschemesandforthecertificationecosysteminadaptingtoemergingsustainabilityrequirements.Chapter5providesrecommendationsonhowstandardsandcertificationschemesforhydrogenanditsderivatescanbeharmonisedandconsolidatedasmarketscontinuetodevelop.

Hydrogenasaflexibleenergyvectorandfeedstockforemissionreductionsinend-usesectors

Tobecompliantwiththe2015ParisAgreement,IRENA’sWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook2023:1.5°CPathwayclearlyidentifiesthattwo-thirdsoftherequiredcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionreductionsinanet-zeroscenariocanbeachievedthroughanincreasedsupplyofrenewableenergy,theelectrificationofvariousenergyservicescurrentlyreliantonfossilfuelsandtheimprovementofenergyefficiency.Inpursuitofthisambition,IRENAWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlookanalysissuggeststhatgreenhydrogen–hydrogenproducedusingelectrolysis,poweredfromrenewablesources–willbeakeyenablerforthedecarbonisationofendusesandflexibilityofthepowersystem.IRENA’s1.5°Cscenarioprojectsthattheglobalfinalenergyconsumptionwoulddecreaseby6%between2020and2050duetotheavenuesassociatedwiththenet-zeroCO2reductions(IRENA,2023b).

IRENAanalysisshowsthatmostendusesofenergycanbeelectrified.However,in“hard-to-abate”sectors,othertoolswillberequiredtoreduceemissions.Someprocessesandendusesrequiretheinputofachemicalfuelorfeedstock.Thisistrueofhydrogenasachemicalbuildingblockforammoniaandmethanolproductionorofhydrogenasachemicalagent,likeitsroleinprimarysteelproduction(asdescribedlaterinthischapter).Hence,tangiblesolutionsareneededthatcanclosethedecarbonisationgapinapplicationswheredirectuseofrenewableelectricityisnottechnicallyviableorcost-effective.Inthiscontext,greenhydrogencanfacilitatetheuseofrenewableenergyinhard-to-abatesectors(WTOandIRENA,2023).IRENA’s1.5°Cscenarioestimatesthatgreenhydrogen,alongwithhydrogen-derivedcommodities(ammonia,methanol,andironandsteel),havethepotentialtoaddressareasonablefraction(14%)oftheglobalfinalenergydemandin2050(IRENA,2023b).

Thecurrenthydrogenproductionlandscapeisstillfossilfuelbased,withcapacitiesreachingapproximately0.1gigatonnes(Gt)ofhydrogenperyear.Thisfossil-derivedhydrogenislargelyusedasfeedstockmaterialforindustriessuchasoilrefining,fertiliserproductionaswellasindownstreamchemicalprocesses.Hydrogenproductioniscurrentlyresponsiblefortheemissionof1100-1300megatonnes(Mt)ofCO2globallyperyear,meaningthathydrogenproductioniscurrentlyamajornetcontributortoclimatechange(IEAetal.,2023).

Toreducetheemissionsfromcurrenthydrogenproduction,amassiveexpansioninrenewablepowerintegrationisrequired,intandemwithanunprecedentedscale-upanddeploymentofelectrolysercapacity.IRENAanalysissuggeststhattheglobalgreenhydrogensectorwillneedtogrowfromanegligibleinstalledbasetodaytomorethan

9

Globaltradeingreenhydrogenderivatives

5700gigawattsofelectrolyticproductioncapacityby2050(IRENA,2023b).Amajorhurdlethathaspreventedtherapiddeploymentofgreenhydrogenhasbeenhigherproductioncoststhanitsdominantfossilfuelcounterparts.Thisnarrativecanbealteredthroughtwocrucialvectors:thecostofrenewableelectricityandthecostofelectrolysers.Inrelationtothefirstofthesevectors,IRENA’slatestanalysisrevealsthatthecostofrenewablepowergenerationisfallingveryquickly.Mostnotably,from2010to2022,thecostofsolarphotovoltaicandofonshoreandoffshorewindpowerhasdroppedbyalmost90%,69%and59%,respectively.Today,solarandwindarethecheapestformsofnewpowergenerationinmanyregionsoftheworld,andcostshavethepotentialtocontinuetodeclineasthesetechnologiesmature(IRENA,2023c).Inrelationtothesecondofthevectors,IRENA’sanalysissuggeststhat,ifelectrolysertechnologydeploymentvolumesweretoreachthoseinthe1.5°Cscenario,thespillovereffectsfrom“learningbydoing”andeconomiesofscalewouldtriggersubstantialcostreductionsfore