非常规油气讲解

UnconventionalOilandNaturalGas–PotentialandChallengesKevinMeyersSeniorVicePresidentExploration&Production-AmericasSEPT.14,20100Thefollowingpresentationincludesforward-lookingstatementswithinthemeaningofSection27AoftheSecuritiesActof1933,asamendedandSection21EoftheSecuritiesExchangeActof1934,asamended,whichareintendedtobecoveredbythesafeharborscreatedthereby.Youcanidentifyourforward-lookingstatementsbywordssuchas“anticipates,”“expects,”“intends,”“plans,”“projects,”“believes,”“estimates,”andsimilarexpressions.Forward-lookingstatementsrelatingtoConocoPhillips’operationsarebasedonmanagement’sexpectations,estimatesandprojectionsaboutConocoPhillipsandthepetroleumindustryingeneralonthedatethesepresentationsweregiven.Thesestatementsarenotguaranteesoffutureperformanceandinvolvecertainrisks,uncertaintiesandassumptionsthataredifficulttopredict.Further,certainforward-lookingstatementsarebaseduponassumptionsastofutureeventsthatmaynotprovetobeaccurate.Therefore,actualoutcomesandresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromwhatisexpressedorforecastinsuchforward-lookingstatements.Factorsthatcouldcauseactualresultsoreventstodiffermateriallyinclude,butarenotlimitedto,crudeoilandnaturalgasprices;refiningandmarketingmargins;potentialfailuretoachieve,andpotentialdelaysinachievingexpectedreservesorproductionlevelsfromexistingandfutureoilandgasdevelopmentprojectsduetooperatinghazards,drillingrisks,andtheinherentuncertaintiesininterpretingengineeringdatarelatingtoundergroundaccumulationsofoilandgas;unsuccessfulexploratorydrillingactivities;lackofexplorationsuccess;potentialdisruptionorunexpectedtechnicaldifficultiesindevelopingnewproductsandmanufacturingprocesses;potentialfailureofnewproductstoachieveacceptanceinthemarket;unexpectedcostincreasesortechnicaldifficultiesinconstructingormodifyingcompanymanufacturingorrefiningfacilities;unexpecteddifficultiesinmanufacturing,transportingorrefiningsyntheticcrudeoil;internationalmonetaryconditionsandexchangecontrols;potentialliabilityforremedialactionsunderexistingorfutureenvironmentalregulations;potentialliabilityresultingfrompendingorfuturelitigation;generaldomesticandinternationaleconomicandpoliticalconditions,aswellaschangesintaxandotherlawsapplicabletoConocoPhillips’business.Otherfactorsthatcouldcauseactualresultstodiffermateriallyfromthosedescribedintheforward-lookingstatementsincludeothereconomic,business,competitiveand/orregulatoryfactorsaffectingConocoPhillips’businessgenerallyassetforthinConocoPhillips’filingswiththeSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC),includingourForm10-KfortheyearendingDecember31,2008.ConocoPhillipsisundernoobligation(andexpresslydisclaimsanysuchobligation)toupdateoralteritsforward-lookingstatements,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwise.CautionaryNotetoU.S.Investors–TheU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommissionpermitsoilandgascompanies,intheirfilingswiththeSEC,todiscloseonlyprovedreservesthatacompanyhasdemonstratedbyactualproductionorconclusiveformationteststobeeconomicallyandlegallyproducibleunderexistingeconomicandoperatingconditions.Wemayusecertaintermsinthispresentationsuchas“oil/gasresources,”“oilinplace,”“recoverablebitumen,”“exploitablebitumeninplace,”and“bitumeninplace”thattheSEC’sguidelinesstrictlyprohibitusfromincludinginfilingswiththeSEC.Theterm“reserves,”asusedinthispresentation,includesprovedreservesfromSyncrudeoilsandsoperationsinCanadawhicharecurrentlyreportedseparatelyasminingoperationsinourSECreports.UnderamendmentstotheSECrules,miningoilsandsreserveswillnolongerbereportedseparately.U.S.investorsareurgedtoconsidercloselytheoilandgasdisclosuresinourForm10-KfortheyearendedDecember31,2008.CAUTIONARYSTATEMENT

FORTHEPURPOSESOFTHE“SAFEHARBOR”PROVISIONS

OFTHEPRIVATESECURITIESLITIGATIONREFORMACTOF19951TheEarth’sHydrocarbonEndowmentOilshales&gashydratesSourcerocks(coals&shales),tightsands,tightcarbonatespoor-qualityhydrocarbonsPictureisadiagrammaticrepresentationoftherelativevolumesofresourcescontainedwithintheearth’scrustwithineachresourcecategory.Hydrocarbons"lockedinrocks"Difficult-to-extracthydrocarbonsEasilyextractable,high-qualityhydrocarbonsNorthAmericaRestofWorldDevelopmentactivityConventional2Targetishydrocarbonsgeneratedinmature,organic-richsource

rock

ProductionfromsourcerocknowpossiblethroughnewtechnologyTheGeologicRevolutionMatureorganic-richsourcerocksin"hydrocarbonkitchen"TheBiggerPrizeThePrizeThenewparadigm3TheEarth’sOilEndowmentBillionsofBarrelsSource:IEAWorldEnergyOutlook2008Recoverablewithcurrenttechnology4,0003,0002,0001,000CumulativeProductionRemainingConventionalReservesRecoverableConventionalResourcesOilSandsResourcesInPlaceExtra-HeavyOilResourcesInPlaceOilShaleResourcesInPlace1,1281,2412,4492,7953,3033,0001,0004346514MillionBarrelsPerDaySource:BasedonIEAWorldEnergyOutlook2009ExistingProduction15MMBPD17%of2015demandCapacityAdditionsNeededProjectedglobaloildemand48NGLsUnconventionalProductionSignificantcapacityadditionsrequiredTheFutureOilSupplyChallenge5Earth’sNaturalGasEndowmentTrillionCubicFeetSource:IEAWorldEnergyOutlook200920,00015,00010,0005,0002,3346,44114,2857,4169,04116,10335,000-176,000CumulativeProductionProvenConventionalReservesRecoverableConventionalResourcesTightGasInPlaceCoalbedMethaneInPlaceShaleGasInPlaceHydratesInPlace3,0633,7346,657Resourcesrecoverablewithcurrenttechnology(RecoverabilityUnknown)6ShaleGasResourceEstimatesHugepotentialresourcesinplace(16,000TCFworldwide)40%recoveryratesaccordingtoInternationalEnergyAgencyResourcedevelopmentinNorthAmericafacilitatedby:Largeopen-accesspipelineinfrastructureLargenumbersofonshoredrillingrigsEstablishedregulatoryframeworkPrivatelyownedmineralrightsResourceselsewherelacktheseadvantages&maynotbedevelopedasquicklyorcheaplyResourcesInPlaceByRegion16,112TCF/450TCMSource:Rogner,19977U.S.ShaleGasTrends,Lower48StatesSource:EnergyInformationAdministrationbasedondatafromvariouspublishedstudiesUpdated:May28,20098TheFutureGasSupplyChallengeDemandGrowth2006-203053.5TCF(54%increase)Source:InternationalGasUnion,NaturalGasIndustryStudyto2030,October2009TCFBaseCaseGreenCase%ofPrimaryEnergyDemandVolumesMarketShareAsiahasthelargestgrowth9ChallengestoDeveloping

UnconventionalResourcesIndustrycostinflationRestrictedresourceaccessNatureofunconventionalsourcesShortagesoftechnicalpersonnel10Challenge–RisingGlobalFinding,

DevelopmentandProductionCostsSource:CreditSuisseUSD/BBL*OperatingCostsincluderoyalties11NOCreserves(equityaccess)FullIOCaccessReservesheldbyRussiancompaniesNOCreserves(noequityaccess)TodayFullIOCaccess1960sSOVIETreservesNOCreserves(noequityaccess)IOC=InternationaloilcompanyNOC=NationaloilcompanyChallenge–RestrictedAccess

forInternationalOilCompaniesSource:PFCEnergy,Oil&GasJournal,BPStatisticalReview2010Note:ExcludesunconventionalcrudeoilandbitumenreservesOnly7%oftheworld’sreservesarefullyaccessiblebyIOCs12Long-TermOilSupplyCostsbySourceProductioncost(dollars–2008)ProducedOtherconventionaloilMENAHeavyoilandbitumenOilshalesGastoliquidsCoaltoliquidsDeepwaterandultradeepwaterCO2-EOREORArcticResources(billionbarrels)1,00000204060801001201402,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000Source:IEAWorldEnergyOutlook200813Long-TermGasSupplyCostsbySourceProductioncost($2008perMBtu)ProducedCBMSourShaleTightDeepwaterConventionalArcticResources(thousandsofTCF,rounded)3.500510157.