东南亚的可持续航空燃料基于生物的解决办法的区域视角报告（英文版）

SUSTAINABLE

AVIATIONFUELS

INSOUTHEASTASIA

Aregionalperspectiveonbio-basedsolutions

©IRENA2024

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.

ISBN:978-92-9260-623-7

Citation:IRENA(2024),SustainableaviationfuelsinSoutheastAsia:Aregionalperspectiveonbio-basedsolutions,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

AboutIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture,andservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwasdevelopedundertheguidanceofRolandRoesch(Director,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre)andRicardoGorini.ItwasauthoredbyChunShengGoh,RicardoGorini(IRENA),KanErnLiew,ZoeTayHuiYee,ArunchelviManie,LongLitChewandFarahEzatiSaindi(Consultants).ThereportbenefitedfromthereviewsandinputsofIRENAcolleaguesMaisarahAbdulKadir,CarlosRuiz,JinleiFengandPaulKomor.ThereportalsobenefitedfromthevaluablereviewsandcontributionsofstakeholdersandexpertsfromIndonesia’sDirectorateGeneralofNewRenewableEnergyandEnergyConservationIndonesia,Malaysia’sMinistryofEnergyTransitionandWaterTransformation,Philippines’DepartmentofEnergy,Thailand’sDepartmentofAlternativeEnergyDevelopmentandEfficiency,andASEANCentreforEnergy.IRENAwouldliketothanktheGovernmentofJapanforsupportingIRENAwiththeworkthatformedthebasisofthisreport.PublicationssupportwasprovidedbyFrancisFieldandStephanieClarke.ThereportwaseditedbyStefanieDurbin,withdesignprovidedbyPhoenixDesignAid.

Forfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback:

publications@

Disclaimer

Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.

TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.

AREGIONALPERSPECTIVEONBIO-BASEDSOLUTIONS

|3

CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS 5

KEYFINDINGS 6

INTRODUCTION 8

1.PRODUCTIONPOTENTIAL 11

1.1Scope 11

1.2Materialsandmethods 12

1.3Results 14

1.4Discussion 20

1.5Keyfindings 23

2.ECONOMICASSESSMENT 24

2.1Scope 24

2.2Materialandmethods 26

2.3Results 29

2.4Discussion 31

2.5Keyfindings 32

3.REGIONALPERSPECTIVES 33

3.1Scope 33

3.2Materialsandmethods 34

3.3GlobaldevelopmentandimplicationsforSoutheastAsia 34

3.4Countrystatusandperspectives 37

3.5Discussion 44

3.6Keyfindings 47

4.RECOMMENDATIONS 48

(A)Across-sectorialframeworkforSAFdevelopment 49

(B)Aco-ordinatedregionalframeworkforSAFdevelopment 50

REFERENCES 51

SUSTAINABLEAVIATIONFUELSINSOUTHEASTASIA

4|

FIGURES

Figure1PotentialvolumeofSAFfromresiduesandwastes

comparedtoprojecteddemandin2050 15

Figure2Roughestimatesofunder-utilisedlow-carbonlandarea*inSoutheastAsia 17

Figure3PotentialSAFfromenergycropsfromunder-utilisedlow-carbonland*

comparedwithSAFdemandat70%blendin2050 18

Figure4ChangesinforestedareasinVietNam,1990-2020 22

Figure5CAPEXprojection(nthplantsandpioneerplants)forSAFplantsinIndonesia,

MalaysiaandThailand 29

Figure6RangeofMJSPsofSAFderivedfromvariousfeedstocks

throughdifferentpathwaysinnthplantsinIndonesia,MalaysiaandThailand 31

Figure7ProgressofSAFdevelopmentindifferentregions 35

TABLES

Table1Feedstocksconsidered 12

Table2AssumedSAFyieldfromthemostcommonpathwaysapprovedbyICAO 14

Table3Non-exhaustivelistofplannedandoperatingSAFproductionplantsinSoutheastAsia 25

Table4Baselinefeedstockprices 28

Table5Currentstatusofpolicydevelopment 34

BOXES

Box1CurrentstatusofCORSIA 9

Box2Non-standardcoconutsasfeedstock 17

Box3CurrentstatusofinternationalUCOtrade 21

Box4TheASEAN-SAM 46

AREGIONALPERSPECTIVEONBIO-BASEDSOLUTIONS

|5

ABBREVIATIONS

1G

ASEAN

ASEAN-SAMASTM

ATAGATJ

CAAS

CAPEXCEF

CORSIA

CPOEFBEJ

EU

FAOSTAT

FCI

FFB

FT

GDPGHGha

HEFA

IATA

ICAO

ICCT

IRENA

1stgenerationbiofuel

AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

ASEANSingleAviationMarket

AmericanSocietyforTestingandMaterial

AirTransportActionGroupalcohol-to-jet

CivilAviationAuthorityofSingapore

capitalexpenditureCORSIAeligiblefuel

CarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviation

crudepalmoil

emptyfruitbunchExajoule

EuropeanUnion

UnitedNationsFoodandAgricultureOrganizationstatisticaldata

fixedcapitalinvestmentfreshfruitbunch

Fischer-Tropsch

grossdomesticproductgreenhousegas

hectare

hydroprocessedestersandfattyacids

InternationalAirTransportAssociation

InternationalCivilAviationOrganisation

InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

ISCCCORSIAInternationalSustainabilityandCarbonCertificationCarbon

OffsettingandReduction

SchemeforInternationalAviation

IUCN

LaoPDR

LF

LTAGMADB

MBMMFSPMhaMJSPMoUMSWMt

NETR

NPV

OPEX

PFAD

PKS

POME

POMEoil

PPPREDRSB

SAFSAPSDGSIA

t

THBTRL

SPKUCOUSD

yr

InternationalUnionforConservationofNature

LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic

locationfactor

LongTermAspirationalGoal

MalaysiaAviation

DecarbonisationBlueprintmarket-basedmeasure

minimumfuelsellingpricemillionhectare

minimumjetfuelsellingprice

memorandumofunderstandingmunicipalsolidwaste

milliontonne

NationalEnergyTransitionRoadmap(Malaysia)

netpresentvalue

operatingexpenditurepalmfattyaciddistillatepalmkernelshell

palmoilmilleffluent

oilderivedfrompalmoilmilleffluent

purchasingpowerparity

RenewableEnergyDirectiveRoundtableonSustainableBiomaterials

sustainableaviationfuelStateActionPlan

SustainableDevelopmentGoalSingaporeAirlines

tonne

Thaibaht

technologyreadinesslevelsyntheticparaffinickeroseneusedcookingoil

UnitedStatesdollaryear

SUSTAINABLEAVIATIONFUELSINSOUTHEASTASIA

KEYFINDINGS

Thefindingsofthisreportemphasisetheurgencyofacceleratingthesustainablescale-upofbiofuelsupplychainsinSoutheastAsia.Inthenearterm,biofuelsremainthemostviableoptionforsignificantlyreducingaviationemissions.However,securingfeedstock,especiallyfromenergycrops,isnotsomethingthatcanbeachievedovernight:itrequiresstrategicplanning,infrastructureandinvestment.Carefulplanning,informedbysciencewithsocialdynamicsconsidered,especiallyinthecontextofSoutheastAsia,shouldbeginassoonaspossibletominimisetheriskofunintendedenvironmentalimpacts.Belowarekeyfindingsandrecommendations.

PRODUCTIONPOTENTIAL

•Relyingsolelyonresiduesandwasteforsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)inSoutheastAsiaisriskyduetocompetitionwithotherusesandcostchallenges.

•Growingenergycropsonunder-utilisedlow-carbonlandwillbeessential,buttheircultivationrequirescarefulmanagement.

•RecognisingthatSoutheastAsia’sfeedstockandlandresourcesvarysignificantlymakescross-bordertradeandforeigninvestmentcrucialtomeetingregionalSAFtargets.

•Strategicallyallocatingfeedstockamongdifferentenduseswillbecriticalconsideringthatlimitedoptionsareavailabletodecarbonisetheaviationsector.

•EngaginglocalstakeholdersandtailoringstrategiesareessentialinSAFproduction,especiallywhereruraldevelopmentandresourcegovernancearepriorities.

ECONOMICASSESSMENT

•SAFisstillcostly,withproductioncostsvaryingsignificantlyacrosscountries.

•Hydroprocessedestersandfattyacid(HEFA)technologyoffersthelowestcapitalexpenditure(CAPEX),makingitanattractivechoiceforearlySAFdevelopment.

•Reliable,affordablefeedstockforHEFAiskey,asfluctuatingvegetableoilpricesimpactcosts.Thisrequirescarefulplanningofenergycropproductionthatalsogeneratesco-benefitsforruraldevelopment,jobcreationandenvironmentalmanagement.

•Fischer-Tropsch(FT)plantsmayachievecompetitivenessatscale,buthighupfrontcostsrequirestrongfinancialsupport,incentivesandpolicybacking.

•Governmentsmustestablishfinancialmechanisms,encouragepublic-privatepartnershipsandpromoteregionalco-operationtoadvancelarge-scaleFTplantdeployment.

6|

AREGIONALPERSPECTIVEONBIO-BASEDSOLUTIONS

REGIONALPERSPECTIVES

•ProgressinSAFdevelopmentacrossSoutheastAsiavaries,withnotableadvancementsinSingapore,followedbyMalaysia,Indonesia,ThailandandthePhilippines.

•Onthedemandside,mostcountriesrespondreactivelytomarketsignalsandrelyonmandates,notsubsidies,todriveSAFadoption.

•Onthesupplyside,SAFproductionisbeingactivelypromotedaspartofindustrialdevelopment,withfiscalandnon-fiscalincentivesgiventoattractinvestment.

•ExternalplayerssuchasAustralia,ChinaandJapanarepartneringwithSoutheastAsiancountriesforexport-orientedSAFproduction,which,whileintensifyingfeedstockcompetition,bringsessentialcapitalandtechnology.

•Sustainablefeedstocksourcingisessential,especiallyascountriesexplorevariousenergycropstosupportSAFproduction.

•AregionalSAFframeworkcouldhelpbalancecompetitionandenhancesustainability.

•A“bookandclaim”systemmightofferflexibility,enablingcountriesatdifferentstagestomeetSAFtargetscollaboratively.

RECOMMENDATIONS

★

I.Across-sectorialframeworkforSAFdevelopment

•EstablishreliableandconsistentsuppliesofresiduesandwasteasSAFfeedstock.

•Establishclearguidelinesforenergycropcultivation.

•Reassessfeedstockallocationfordifferentenduses.

•Streamlinepolicyco-ordinationforefficientSAFimplementation.

II.Aco-ordinatedregionalframeworkforSAFdevelopment

•Developaregionalframeworktofacilitatetrade.

•FosterregionalcollaborationforSAFdeployments.

•Tailorpolicysupporttoregionalvariations.

|7

SUSTAINABLEAVIATIONFUELSINSOUTHEASTASIA

8|

INTRODUCTION

Inrecentyears,agrowingawarenessofclimatechange,industryresponsibilitiesandtheurgentneedforsustainabilityhasgainedmomentumintheaviationsector,whichisresponsibleforapproximately2-3%ofglobalanthropogenicemissions.Apivotalsteptowardsemissionreductionswasreachedduringthe37thAssemblyoftheInternationalCivilAviationOrganisation(ICAO)in2010,heldinMontreal,Canada.Actionableobjectiveswereestablishedtoenhancetheindustry’sefficiencyandsetcarbon-neutralgrowthgoals,makingtheaviationsectoraleaderinthiseffort.AframeworkwasintroducedforICAOanditsmemberstatestoidentifyandimplementsolutionstoreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,coveringfourkeyareas:

•StateActionPlans(SAPs)

•SAFs

•market-basedmeasures(MBMs)

•globalaspirationalgoals.

Commencingin2012,eachICAOmemberstateagreedtosubmititsSAP,outliningabasketofmeasuresfortherespectivestatetoemploytoreduceitsemissions,includingcurrentactions,actionsinprogressandnear-futureactivities.Thebasketofmeasuresbyeachrespectivestateistailoredtothestate’slevelofdevelopment,itscircumstances,andtheassistanceorsupportrequired.ThesubmissionofaSAPhelpsICAOtoassesstheprogressmadeinachievingtheglobalaspirationalgoalforaviationdecarbonisation.

Additionally,aglobalschemeforMBMs,knownasCORSIA(CarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviation),wasdevelopedandadoptedbyICAOin2016.CORSIAcoversoperations,infrastructure,aircrafttechnology,SAF,andcarboncreditsandtrading(ICAO,2024a).Theschemeisimplementedinthreephases:avoluntarypilotphase(2021-2023),avoluntaryfirstphase(2024-2026)andamandatorysecondphase(2027-2035)formemberstates(seeBox1).Anet-zerotargetby2050andacarbon-neutralgrowthpath,knownastheLongTermAspirationalGoal(LTAG),wassetwithintheCORSIAframeworkin2019.ExpertsfromaroundtheworldworkingundertheICAO’sLTAGTaskGrouphavesimulatedandderivedthescenariosleadingupto2050(ICAO,n.d.a).

©Hhho/Shutterstock

AREGIONALPERSPECTIVEONBIO-BASEDSOLUTIONS

|9

Box1CurrentstatusofCORSIA

ToensureCORSIA’seffectiveness,athree-phaseapproachwasimplementedthatgraduallyensurestheadoptionofCORSIAbymemberstates.Currently,allCORSIAmemberstatesareinthevoluntaryphase,whichconsistsofthePilotPhase(2021-2023)andFirstPhase(2024-2026).InthevoluntaryFirstPhase,memberstatesperformtrials(pilots)anddemonstrationsofCORSIArequirementscompliance(suchasreporting,compliancewithCORSIAframeworksandstandards,andemissionsoffsetting).Thevoluntaryphase,settoendin2026,willdemonstratememberstates’readiness.Theirreadinesswillthendeterminewhetherare-assessmentincriteria,frameworkandreportingmayberequiredforthemandatoryphase(orSecondPhase),whichrunsfrom2027to2035.

Toensureitsadoptionbymemberstates,CORSIAhasalsoreleasedtoolsandstandards,suchastheCERTtool(CORSIACO2EstimationandReportingTool),CORSIAEligibleFuel(CEF)reference,CORSIAEligibleEmissionsUnitreferenceandtheCORSIACentralRegistry(CCR).ThesetoolshelptoensuregoodgovernanceindataandreportingtoCORSIA,supportingthetraceabilityofdecarbonisationforthesector.

Furthermore,tosupportthepracticalimplementationofSAF,CORSIAalsohasa"book&claim”mechanism.ThismechanismensuresaccesstoSAF’ssustainabilitycertificatesevenforcountrieswholacktheaccessorcapabilitytoproduceaSAF.ThisisfurtherdiscussedinChapter3,Section3.

Consideringthechallengesposedbyaircraftfleetelectrification,SAFderivedfromsustainablebio-basedfeedstockisseenasamajorcontributortoachievingGHGreductionandtoachievingnetzeroby2050(IRENA,2021).ICAO’sLTAGIntegratedScenarios2and3projectthatSAFcouldcontribute40-60%ofaviationemissionsreductionby2050.Meanwhile,theInternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA)estimatesthatSAFwillneedtoaccountfor65%oftheaviationsector’srequiredemissionsreductionby2050(IATA,2023).

DeployingSAFrequiresdevelopingindividual“processbricks”andconnectingthemtomaturetheentiresupplychain.These“bricks”includefeedstockcollection,cultivation,processing,refining,blending,certification,validation,traceability,distributionandcostmanagement.Thisdeploymentrepresentsanewphaseintheaviationenergytransition,unlikeanythingseenbefore.TheSAFindustryisstillinitsinfancy,withacurrentglobalproductioncapacityoflessthan1%ofglobalaviationfuelusage.Bytheendof2024,IATAestimatesthattheproductionofSAFwillonlyreach1.5milliontonnes(Mt;1.9billionlitres),or0.53%ofglobalaviationfuelneeds(IATA,2024).

TheAirTransportActionGroup(ATAG)statesthat330MtofSAFwillbeneededaroundtheworldby2050(Blanshardetal.,2021).However,thesituationdifferssignificantlybyregion.Thesignificanceofregionalcontexts,particularlyintermsoffeedstockproduction,cannotbeoverstated.Theavailabilityoffeedstockiscloselytiedtogeographical,biophysicalandsocio-economicfactors,especiallywithintheland-basedsectors.Akeycomponentintheenergytransitionisto“alignenergyinfrastructuredevelopmentplanningtosocio-economicdevelopmentagendasandpriorities”(RES4A,IRENAandUNECA,2022).Forregionswithextensiveagricultureandforestrysectors,creatingsynergieswithexistingeconomicactivitiesisaprioritytoachievemultipleSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)andpreventclimatechange.

In2021,theInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)publishedareportsummarisingtheglobalprogressandpotentialofbio-jetfuelproduction(IRENA,2021).Whileitofferedacomprehensiveglobaloverview,thereisaneedtoconsiderregionalcontextsforadeeperunderstanding.Inthisregard,SoutheastAsiastandsout,gainingsignificantattentionintheurgentpushforSAF.

SUSTAINABLEAVIATIONFUELSINSOUTHEASTASIA

10|

SoutheastAsiaisrichinbiodiversity,andtheregionreliesheavilyonextensiveagriculturalandforestryactivities.Asitnavigatesthecomplexitiesofdecarbonisation,leveragingbio-basedresourcesforfuelpurposesbecomesafocalpointinaddressingthetrilemmaofachievingequitableeconomicgrowth,sustainablelandmanagementandajustenergytransition(IRENA,2023;IRENAandACE,2016).Theongoingenergytransitionintheaviationsectorprovidesacompellingopportunitytotransformconventionalland-basedeconomiesfromunsustainablelandexploitationtothesustainableuseofresourcesforfood,fuelandmaterials.

Furthermore,SoutheastAsiahassignificantairtrafficandahighdependenceontourism.Itisanimportanttransithub,commandingapproximatelyUSD117billion(UnitedStatesdollars)ofglobaltourismspending.Thisamountstocloseto7%ofaUSD1.7trillionindustry(UNWTO,2019),andinthepre-COVIDworldtheregionhadthefastestyear-over-yeargrowth,at7%.TheimpactofbusinessandtouristtravelinSoutheastAsiacontributesroughly12%totheregion’sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)(Saberwal,2022),supportingmillionsofpeopledirectlyandindirectly.PolicydevelopmentintheEuropeanUnionisexpectedtohaveasignificantimpactonSoutheastAsia,giventhehighvolumeofflightsbetweenthetworegions.

Atthesametime,thecountriesthatmakeupSoutheastAsiahaveawiderangeofdevelopmentstatuses,withcountriesatdifferentspeedsandstagesofdevelopment.Thismakestheregionanimportantareatostudywithregardtotheimpactofthetransitiontowardssustainableaviationdevelopmentfordecarbonisation.

Thisreportprovidesanoverviewof,andperspectiveson,SAFdevelopmentinSoutheastAsia.ItfirstestimatesthepotentialvolumeofSAFthatcanbeproducedfromsustainablefeedstockintheregion,includingexploringenergycropproductiononunder-utilisedlow-carbonland.ThisisfollowedbyaneconomicassessmentofvariousICAO-approvedpathwaysthroughtechno-economicanalysisinselectedcountrieswithplannedSAFprojects.Thenextchapteranalysesthepolicyframeworkandinvestmentactivitieswithintheregion,andexploresstrategiestailoredtotherespectivecountries’resources.Finally,futureperspectivesregardingSAFinthecontextofenergytransition,theaviationsectorandSAFdevelopmentwithintheregionarepresentedasrecommendations.Notably,theresultspresentedinthisreportwerediscussedandreviewedbycountryrepresentativesandindustrialexpertsviaaseriesofworkshopsandinterviews.

AREGIONALPERSPECTIVEONBIO-BASEDSOLUTIONS

|11

1.

PRODUCTIONPOTENTIAL

1.1SCOPE

Technically,SAFcanbederivedfromarangeofbio-basedresourcessuchasvegetableoils,animalfats,carbohydrates,sugars,andresiduesandwastesfromagriculture,forestryandmunicipalsolidwaste(MSW).SoutheastAsia,withitsextensiveagricultureandforestrysectors,holdssubstantialpotentialforbio-basedfeedstock.Additionally,advancedfeedstockslikealgaearebeingexploredintheregionduetoitssuitablebiophysicalandclimaticconditions.Dependingonfeedstockcharacteristics,variousconversionprocessescanbeemployedtoproduceaviationfuelcompatiblewithexistingaircraft(ASTMD7566).

Asameanstodecarbonisetheaviationsector,SAFneedstopossessasignificantlylowercarbonfootprintifitistoserveasanalternativetoconventionaljetfuel.Achievingthislargelydependsonthetypeandsourceoffeedstock(ICAO,2024a).Tothisend,sustainabilitycriteriagoverningtheutilisationoffeedstockswereintroducedbyICAOintoCORSIA.Initially,thediscussionfocusedmainlyonvariousresiduesandwastestreams.Despitestudieshighlightingthepotentialandco-benefitsofmobilisingunder-utilisedlow-carbonland(DeCarvalhoetal.,2019;Jaungetal.,2018;McCormicketal.,2014),theuseofenergycropswaslargelyexcludedfrommajordiscussionsinthesector.However,inearly2024,aEuropeanCommissionreportemphasisedthatenergycropsdedicatedtobiofuelsgrownonmarginalorabandonedlandswillplayasignificantroleindecarbonisingtheaviationsector(EuropeanCommission:Directorate-GeneralforResearchandInnovation,2024).

Toprovideaholisticviewoffeedstockavailability,thisstudyconsiderstwobroadgroupsoffeedstocks,namelyi)residuesandwastesandii)energycropsfromunder-utilisedlow-carbonland.Intermsofgeographicalcoverage,SingaporeandBruneiDarussalamareexcludedfromthefeedstockanalysisduetotheircomparativelyloweragriculturaldevelopmentandlackofsignificantlandmass.However,bothcountriesareconsideredtobemajoroff-takersintheanalysisduetotheirpotentialdemandforSAF.

SUSTAINABLEAVIATIONFUELSINSOUTHEASTASIA

12|

1.2MATERIALSANDMETHODS

Residuesandwastes

Severalcategoriesofresiduesandwasteswereconsidered(Table1).Theestimationofthepotentialvolumesofagriculturalresidueswaslargelybasedonthatestablishedinthe2023IRENAreportAgriculturalresidue-basedbioenergy:Regionalpotentialandscale-upstrategies(IRENA,2023).Assumingtheyear2022asthebaselineyear,statisticaldatafromtheUnitedNationsFoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAOSTAT)(FAO,2023a)wasusedasthemainsourcetoobtaincropproductionvolumes.

Thedryweightofthecropresidueisfirstcalculatedbymultiplyingtheamountofcropproducedbytheresidue-to-cropratioandsubtractingthemoisturecontentofthecropresidue.Thetechnicalvolumeofbiomassfeedstockisthencalculatedbysubtractingthetheoreticalvolumewiththerecoveryrateandtheutilisationrateofthefeedstockinexistingcompetinguses,butdoesnotconsiderfuturecompetitionsfrom,e.g.shippingorbiocharapplications.Theresidue-to-cropratioofeachagriculturalbiomassandthemoisturecontentsoffeedstocksareobtainedfromthe2023IRENAreport(IRENA,2023)andcrossed-checkedwithliterature,assumingthesameratiosareapplicabletoallstudiedcountries.However,inthisstudy,therecoveryratesandutilisationratesassumedarefurtherrefinedspecifictoeachcountry.Theirvaluesweregatheredfromrespectivegovernmentpublicationsandexistingliteraturework,andrevisedbasedoninputsreceivedduringstakeholderconsultationsandexternalreviews.Forrecoveryratesandutilisationratesthatcouldnotbefoundineithertypeofsourcematerial,thesamevaluesusedinthe2023IRENAreport(IRENA,2023)wereusedasassumptions.

Table1Feedstocksconsidered

CATEGORY

FEEDSTOCK

Agriculturalresidues

Palmemptyfruitbunch(EFB),palmkernelshell(PKS),mesocarpfibre,sugarcanetops,bagasse,

molasses,ricestraw,ricehusk,coconuthusk,coconutshell,cornstover(stalk),corncob,cassavapeel,cassavastalk

Woodresidues

Woodresiduesfromprocessingmills

Wasteoils

Usedcookingoil(UCO),palmoilmilleffluent(POME)oil,palmfattyaciddistillate(PFAD)

Urbanwaste

Municipalsolidwaste(MSW)

ThevolumeforwoodresiduewasestimatedbasedondatafromFAOSTAT,definedaswoodwasteandscrapsuchassawmillrejects,labs,edgingsandtrimmings,veneerlogcores,veneerrejects,sawdust,andresiduesfromcarpentryandjoineryproduction.

ForUCO,thevolumewasestimatedbasedontheGREENEAAnalysisfor2019andthepopulationcensusinindividualcountriesin2022(BadanPusatStatistik,2022;DepartmentofStatisticsMalaysia,2024;GeneralStatisticsOffice,2022;NationalInstituteofStatisticsMinistryofPlanning,2021;NationalStatisticalOffice,2023).ThePOMEvolumegeneratedatthemillswasestimatedbasedonaresidue-to-cropratioof0.67(Kaniapanetal.,2021;Supriatnaetal.,2022),andtheoilfractionwasassumedtobe0.65%basedontheaverageof0.6-0.7%fromliterature(MohdPauzietal.,2023;Yeohetal.,2022).ThevolumeofPFADwas

AREGIONALPERSPECTIVEONBIO-BASEDSOLUTIONS

|13

estimatedbasedonaresidue-to-cropratioof3.5-5%(Neste,n.d.),andanassumedoilfractionof80%basedonanaverageof65-95%fromliterature(Rajoetal.,2020).

TheMSWrecoveryratewasbasedontheMSWcollectionratereportedbyreviewand/orresearcharticles.Forcountrieswithnodata,70.5%wasassumedbasedonregionalnumbers(Kojima,2019;UnitedNations,2023).

Energycropsfromunder-utilisedlow-carbonland

Thepotentialunder-utilisedlandineachcountrywasroughlyestima