用于评估交通网络稳定性的压力测试方案

UNECE

Stresstestframeworkforevaluatingtheresilienceoftransportsystems

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UNITEDNATIONS

UNITEDNATIONSECONOMICCOMMISSIONFOREUROPE

Stresstestframework

forevaluatingtheresilience

oftransportsystems

、

UNITEDNATloNS

Geneva,2024

©2024UnitedNations

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eISBN:978-92-1-358939-7

STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMSiii

UNITEDNATIONSECONOMICCOMMISSIONFOR

EUROPE

TheUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)isoneofthe5UnitedNationsregionalcommissions,administeredbytheEconomicandSocialCouncil(ECOSOC).Itwasestablishedin1947withthemandatetohelprebuildpost-warEurope,developeconomicactivityandstrengtheneconomicrelationsamongEuropeancountries,andbetweenEuropeandtherestoftheworld.DuringtheColdWar,UNECEservedasauniqueforumforeconomicdialogueandcooperationbetweenEastandWest.Despitethecomplexityofthisperiod,significantachievementsweremade,withconsensusreachedonnumerousharmonizationandstandardizationagreements.

Inthepost-ColdWarera,UNECEacquirednotonlymanynewmemberStates,butalsonewfunctions.Sincetheearly1990stheorganizationhasfocusedonassistingthecountriesofCentralandEasternEurope,CaucasusandCentralAsiawiththeirtransitionprocessandtheirintegrationintotheglobaleconomy.

Today,UNECEsupportsits56memberStatesinEurope,Caucasus,CentralAsiaandNorthAmericaintheimplementationofthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopmentanditsSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).UNECEprovidesamultilateralplatformforpolicydialogue,thedevelopmentofinternationallegalinstruments,normsandstandards,theexchangeofbestpracticesandeconomicandtechnicalexpertise,aswellastechnicalcooperationforcountrieswitheconomiesintransition.

Thenorms,standardsandconventionsdevelopedatUNECEintheareasofenvironment,transport,trade,statistics,energy,forestry,housingandlandmanagement,innovationorpopulation,offerpracticaltoolstoimprovepeople’sdailylives.Manyareusedworldwide,andanumberofcountriesfromoutsidetheregionparticipateinworkofUNECE.

UNECE’smultisectoralapproachhelpscountriestotackletheinterconnectedchallengesofsustainabledevelopmentinanintegratedmanner,withatransboundaryfocusthathelpsdevisesolutionstosharedchallenges.Withitsuniqueconveningpower,UNECEfosterscooperationamongallstakeholdersatthecountryandregionallevels.

ivSTRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS

TRANSPORTINUNECE

Today,UNECEservices60UnitedNationsinlandtransportlegalinstruments.SeveralofthelegalinstrumentsareglobaleitherbydesignorbecausetheirsuccesshascausedthemtogrowbeyondtheECEregion.Inadditiontonegotiatingtheamendmentstoexistinglegalinstruments,UNECEhasbeenactiveinfacilitatingnewlegalinstruments.Itsnormativeactivitiesareenhancedwithdevelopingmethodologies,guidelines,anddefinitionsonsubjectssuchastransportplanning,datacollectionandthecollectionoftransportstatistics.UNECE’sworkontransportisgovernedbytheInlandTransportCommittee(ITC)andits21WorkingParties,whichareinturnsupportedbymorethan40formalandinformalexpertgroupsandincooperationwith9treatybodies(AdministrativeCommittees).AnnualsessionsofITCarethekeymomentsofthiscomprehensiveintergovernmentalwork,whentheresultsfromallsubsidiarybodies,aswellastheUNECESustainableTransportDivision,arepresentedtoITCmembersandcontractingparties.

InadditiontoservicingITCanditssubsidiarybodies,theDivisionalsoservicesotherintergovernmentalbodiesincludingtheECOSOCCommitteeofExpertsontheTransportofDangerousGoodsandontheGloballyHarmonizedSystemofClassificationandLabellingofChemicals,aswellas9treatybodiesofUnitedNationslegalinstrumentsandtheTIRExecutiveBoard.IncooperationwithUNESCAP,UNECESustainableTransportDivisionsupportstheUnitedNationsSpecialProgrammefortheEconomiesofCentralAsia(SPECA).ItalsoannuallyalternateswithUNESCAPasthesecretariattotheSPECAThematicWorkingGrouponSustainableTransport,TransitandConnectivity.IncooperationwiththeUNECEEnvironmentDivisionandWHOEurope,theDivisionservicestheTransport,HealthandEnvironmentPan-EuropeanProgramme(THEPEP).ItensuresthemanagementandoversightoftheTrans-EuropeanNorth-SouthMotorway(TEM)andtheTrans-EuropeanRailway(TER)projects.TheDivisionsupportstheaccessiontoandimplementationoftheUNlegalinstrumentsthroughpolicydialogues,technicalassistance,andanalyticalactivitieswiththepriorityofpromotingregionalandsubregionalcooperationandcapacity-building.Finally,since2015,UNECEhoststhesecretariatoftheUnitedNationsSecretary-General’sSpecialEnvoyforRoadSafetyandsince2018thesecretariatoftheUnitedNationsRoadSafetyFund(UNRSF).

STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMSv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

ThisStresstestframeworkforevaluatingtheresilienceoftransportsystemsisaproductofworkoftheUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope(UNECE)GroupofExpertsonAssessmentofClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationforInlandTransport.ThisworkaswellastheelaborationoftheFrameworkwascoordinatedbyMr.LukaszWyrowski(UNECEsecretariat).

Themainauthorsare:

Prof.B.T.Adey

InstituteofConstructionandInfrastructureManagement,SwissFederal

H.Nasrazadani

InstituteofTechnologyinZürich

Otherauthorsare:

K.Chambers

EngineerResearchandDevelopmentCenter,USACE

Dr.C.Walker

UnitedStatesNationalCentreforAtmosphericResearch

Prof.J.Dora

ClimateSense

Substantiveinputswereprovidedby:

T.PopescuDirectorateGeneralforInfrastructure,TransportandMobilityofFrance

J.BrookePIANC

L.WyrowskiUNECE

viSTRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS

TABLEOFCONTENTS

UNITEDNATIONSECONOMICCOMMISSIONFOREUROPE iii

TRANSPORTINUNECE iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT v

EXECUTIVESUMMARY viii

INTRODUCTION ix

CHAPTER1

CONTEXT-CLIMATECHANGEHAZARDS 1

1.CLIMATEIMPACTNOW 1

2.CLIMATEIMPACTSTOTRANSPORTATIONSECTORS 2

(a)Road 2

(b)Rail 3

(c)PortsandInlandWaterways(IWW) 4

(d)Airports 5

CHAPTER2

USEOFSTRESSTESTSTODETERMINEIFINTERVENTIONSARENEEDEDTOENSURE

TRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTUREPROVIDESANACCEPTABLELEVELOFSERVICEIN

THECONTEXTOFCLIMATECHANGE 7

CHAPTER3

STRESSTESTSTEPS 11

1.GENERAL 11

2.DEFINETHESTRESSTEST 11

3.DETERMINEYOURAPPROACH 12

4.DETERMINEYOURTRANSPORTSYSTEMREPRESENTATION(INFRASTRUCTURE,ENVIRONMENT,

ANDORGANISATION) 13

(a)Defineboundaries 14

(i)Denitionoftheconsideredsystem 14

(ii)Thespatialboundaries 15

(iii)Thetemporalboundaries 15

(b)Defineevents 16

(c)Definescenarios 18

(d)Definerelationships 19

(e)Determinemodels 20

5.ESTIMATERESILIENCE 20

6.EVALUATERESILIENCE 21

7.DETERMINEPARTSOFSYSTEMTOBEANALYSEDINMOREDETAIL 22

REFERENCES 25

STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMSvii

LISTOFFIGURES

FigureISchematicoverviewofISOstandardsandstresstesting[adaptedfromISO14090(ISO2019)] x

FigureIISomeexamplesofclimatechangeimpactsontransportationinfrastructureandoperations

(UNECE2020) 2

FigureIIIExampleofasimpleeventtreeforthedefinitionofscenarios(Adeyetal.2016) 18

1InternationalUnionofRailways

viiiSTRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Thisdocumentoutlinesacomprehensiveframeworkforconductingstresstestsandevaluatingtheresilienceoftransportationsystems.

Itistargetedatstakeholdersengagedintransportationplanning,riskanalysis,anddecision-makingprocesses.Itincludespolicymakers,transportauthorities,engineers,andconsultants,providingthemwithastandardizedproceduretoconductstresstestsandestimatetheresilienceoftheirsystemusingbothqualitativeandquantitativeapproaches.

Moreover,theframeworkemphasizestheimportanceofaddressinguncertaintiesandoffersguidanceonidentifyingcriticalsystemcomponents,potentialinterventions,andareasforfurtheranalysis.Byfollowingthisframework,transportationstakeholderscanenhancetheirunderstandingofsystemvulnerabilities,makeinformeddecisions,anddevelopeffectivestrategiestoimprovetheoverallresilienceoftransportnetworks.

Thisdocumentshouldbeconnectedwithotherstandardsandguidelinesonrisk/resilienceassessmentandadaptationoftransportationsystemstoclimatechange,includingISO14090(ISO2019),ISO14091(ISO2021),BS8631(BSI2021),UIC1RailAdapt(UIC2017),PIARC’sInternationalclimatechangeadaptationframeworkforroadinfrastructure(PIARC2015),andPIANC’sclimatechangeadaptationplanningforportsandinlandwaterways(EnviComWG178).

STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMSix

INTRODUCTION

ThisstresstestingframeworkbuildsuponthepaperbyAdeyetal.(2016)andprovidespracticalguidanceonhowtodefineandapplyoneormorestresstestsontransportsystems.Thefunctioningofsocietydependsonthetransportationofgoodsandpersonsandtheinfrastructurerequiredtoenabletransportationisbuilttoensurethatthiscanhappeninspecifiedways–thatis,builttoprovidespecifiedlevelsofservice.

Aslossesinserviceduetodisruptiveevents(e.g.,naturalhazardssuchasfloods,heavysnowfalls)canhavesignificantsocietalconsequences(chapter1),thetransportinfrastructureshouldbemanagedinsuchawaythattheconsequencesofextremeeventsareminimised,takingintoconsiderationtheiravailableresourcesandtheirpotentialreturnoninvestment.Thisframework(inchapters2and3)showshowstresstestscanbeusedtodetermineifinterventionsareneededtoensuretransportinfrastructureprovidesanacceptablelevelofserviceinthecontextofclimatechangehazard.

Casestudiesonroad-andrail-networkswillbedevelopedtoillustratetheapproach,givingreal-lifeexamplesofapplication.

Thestresstestconceptcanbeusedaspartofanassessmentprocessthathelpstoidentifyimpactswhilstformulatingaplanforadaptationtoclimatechangeortodealwithotherrisks.ISO14090:2019“Adaptationtoclimatechange–Principles,requirementsandguidelines”isthebenchmarkstandardforadaptationplanning,andcallsforimpactassessments,whichthenareprioritisedwherebyplansarethendrawnuptodealwiththeseimpacts(ISO2019)”mendeley”:{“formattedCitation”:”(ISO2019.ISO14090doesnotmandate-require-anyparticularformofimpactassessment;itrequiresanimpactassessment,thengoesontosaythatthiscanbeariskassessment,avulnerabilityassessment,orathresholdsanalysis.

Stresstestscanbeusedtodeterminetheresilienceofthetransportsysteminspecificsituations,byassessinghowitwillperforminthesespecificsituations,i.e.,willitbeabletoprovidespecifiedlevelofserviceforwhichitwasbuilt.

Stresstestsprovideanotherwayofcarryingoutanimpactanalysisandassuch,wouldcomplywithISO14090requirements;pleaserefertoFigureI.Stresstestingcomplementsvulnerabilityandriskanalysisbyevaluatingtheinfrastructure’sabilitytowithstandextremeconditions.Whilevulnerabilityandriskanalysesidentifypotentialweaknessesbasedonknownhazardsandhistoricaldata,stresstestingsimulatesreal-worldscenarios,e.g.,extremeevents,trafficspikes,andunexpectedfailures,revealingsomevulnerabilitiesandweaknessesthatmightnotsurfaceinregularassessments.Bysubjectingthenetworktosuchstressorsandevaluatingtheireffectonservice,henceconsequencesforhumanactivities,infrastructuremanagerscanassessitsresilience,identifycriticalweakpoints,anddeviseadaptivestrategiestoenhancethetransportationnetwork’sresilience.

xSTRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS

FigureISchematicoverviewofISOstandardsandstresstesting[adaptedfromISO14090(ISO2019)]

StressTest

Astresstestcanprovidevaluableinputintoanadaptationplanthataddressesmanyclimatechangeimpactswithinatransportsystem,potentiallybothasanearlycontributiontosuchaplan,andduringthedraftingofamorecomprehensiveadaptationplan.Thisintegratedapproachhelpsbuildmorerobustandclimate-resilienttransportationsystemsthatcancontinuetofunctioneffectivelyandsafelydespitethechallengesposedbyclimatechange.

STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS1

CHAPTER1

CONTEXT-CLIMATECHANGEHAZARDS

1.CLIMATEIMPACTNOW

Globally,wefaceaclimatecrisisthatthreatensourabilitytosustainsafe,reliable,available,andequitabletransportationservicestothecommunitiesthatneedthem.Adaptingtofutureimpactsofclimatechangeisnolongeraconcerntobepostponed:itisanissuetobedealtwithnow.Infact,theWorldEconomicForum’sGlobalRiskReportidentifiesthefailuretocreatepolicytoaddressextremeweatherandclimatechangeasoneofourgreatestshorttomedium-termglobalthreats(WEF2019).Theimpactsofclimaterisksarebeingfeltnow,andwearepresentedwithanunprecedentedopportunitytounderstandthoserisksandprepareforthemsothatimpactscanbereducedforallourcommunities.

InthemostrecentreportwrittenbytheInternationalPanelonClimateChange(IPCCAR62022),widespreadandpervasiveimpactshavebeenobservedinhumanandecologicalsystemsduetoincreasesinthefrequencyandintensityofclimateandweatherextremes.TheIPCCreportdividesclimateimpactsandrisksintoseveralcategories:observed,near-term(2021–2040),mid(2041–2060)andlong-term(2061–2100).Themagnitudeandrateofprojectedclimatechangeimpactsinthesecategoriesdependsonthenear-termmitigationandadaptationinterventionstoreduceemissions(i.e.,RepresentativeConcentrationPathways,IPCCAR62022).Regardlessofanyinterventionsthereareavarietyofadverselossesanddamagestobeexpected,especiallyforsmallislandsandmegacitieslocatedinlow-lyingcoastalareas(Monioudietal.2018;Storlazzietal.2018).

TheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgramsFourthNationalClimateAssessmentechoesthefindingsofIPCCAR6,mentioningthat‘thousandsofstudies’havedocumentedglobalchangesinatmospheric,surface,andoceantemperature;diminishingseaice,meltingglaciers,risingsealevels,oceanacidification,andincreasingwatervapor(USGCRP2018).Theseeffectscanbedividedintotwocategoriesbasedontheimpacttheyhaveonasystem’sintendedfunctionality(e.g.,safeandefficienttravel).Thefirstcategoryincludeschronicandlong-termchangesinweatherpatternsthatstressasystemintodeliveringitsintendedfunctionatanewsteadystate.Theseclimatehazardstressorscanincludeforinstanceprecipitationpatterns,risesintemperature,sedimentation,sealevelrise,andcoastalerosion.Thesecondcategoryincludesepisodicdisruptionsthatrequireasystemtoabsorbashockandattempttorecovertoitsformerfunctionality.Theseshorter-termstressorscanoftenhavemajorregionalimpactsthatmaybedifficulttorecoverfromorcreatelastingchange.Thesedisruptionsincludemorecommonlyknownclimateextremeslikeriverineflooding,landslides,debrisflows,icestorms,coastalstorms,wildfires,drought,andextremetemperatures.

2STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS

2.CLIMATEIMPACTSTOTRANSPORTATIONSECTORS

Thetransportationsectorischaracterizedbylong-lastingandcomplexinfrastructuresystemsthatcantakemanyyearstoadapttostressorsanddisruptions(Vajjarapuetal.2020).Thetransportationsector’sclimatevulnerabilitiescanbecharacterizedinseveralways.Directpathwaysofdisruptionfocusondisruptionstotransportationinfrastructureitselfandhastraditionallybeenthefocusoftransportsystemvulnerabilityresearch.AlistofexampleimpactscanbefoundinFigureII,withmoredetailedexplanationsofsector-specificimpactsinthesectionstofollow.

FigureIISomeexamplesofclimatechangeimpactsontransportationinfrastructureandoperations

(UNECE2020)

Someexamplesofclimatechangeimpactsontransportationinfrastructureandoperations

Temperature

Waterwaysandports

•Damageto

infrastructure,

equipmentandcargo

•Higherenergy

consumptionforcooling

•Potentialforlongershippingseasons

•Occupationalhealthandsafetyissuesduring

extremetemperatures

•Trackbuckling

•Infrastructureandrollingstockoverheating/failure

•Slopefailures

•Signalingproblems

•Speedrestrictions

•Assetlifetimereduction

•Higherneedsforcooling

•Shortermaintenancewindows

•Highermeantemperatures;heat

waves/droughts;changesinthenumbersofwarmandcooldays

•Reducedsnowcoverandarcticlandandseaice;permafrostdegradationandthawing

•Thermalpavement

loadinganddegradation

•Asphaltrutting

•Thermaldamagetobridges

•Increasedconstructionandmaintenancecosts

•Reducedintegrityofwinterroadsand

shortenedoperating

seasons

Road

Rail

Precipitation

•Infrastructureinundation

•Navigationrestrictionsininlandwaterwaysduetoextremeloworhighlow

conditions

•Flooding,damageandwash-outsofbridges

•Problemswithdrainagesystemsandtunnels

•Delays

•Changesinthemeanvalues;changesin

intensity,typeand/orfrequencyofextremes

Sealevels/stormsurges

•Assetinundation

•Navigationchannelsedimentation

•Maintenancecosts

•Bridgescour,catenary

damageatcoastalassets

•Disruptionofcoastaltrainoperation

•Erosionofcoastalroads

•Flooding,damageandwash-outsofroadsandbridges

•Inundation,damageandwash-outsofroadsandbridges

•Increasedlandslides

•Bridgesscour

•Meansealevelrise

•Increasedextremesealevels

Alongwithdirectimpactslistedabove,Markolfetal.(2019)identifiedtheneedtounderstandindirectdisruptiontocapturethecomplexitiesrevealedwithintransportationsystemsandothercriticalinfrastructuresystemslikeenergy,water,fuel,communications,andcommunities.Transportationsystemsdonotexistinisolationandanunderstandingofthesestronginterconnectionsisimportanttoeventuallyidentifyingadaptiveinterventions.Forexample,ifaroadwayorrailwayintoaportexperiencesflooding,thenthemovementofgoods,services,andemployeesoftheportareaffected.Theport’sfunctionalresilienceisdecreasednomatterthestatusofitsinfrastructure.Keepingtheseindirectdisruptionsinmind,thefollowingsectionsidentifysomeclimatechange-relatedimpactsfeltbydifferenttransportationsectors.

(a)Road

Intermsofroadtransport,structuralfailuresareanticipatedinpolarregionsduetopermafrostthawandincreasederosionrelatedtooceanwarming,stormsurgefloodingandlossofseaice(FromIPCC–Melvinetal.2017;Fangetal.2018;IPCCCrossChapterPaper6).ClimatefloodingwoulddoublethenumberofdelaysandlosttripsintheBostonmetropolitanareaby2100(Suarezetal.2005).MediancostofnotadaptingtoclimatechangeimpactsonpavedroadwaysinGhanawouldbe$473.72millionby2100(Twerefouet.al2014).Climatechangecouldimpactbetween$1.3billionand$4.9billionofprimaryroadwaysinMexico

STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS3

(Espinetetal.2016).ThecostofreconstructionofroadsduetoclimatechangeinFranceisestimatedto€22billionbetween2020and2050(Carbone42021).USDOTClimateActionPlanlistsnotablepotentialimpactstoroadsystems:

•Morefrequentandseverefloodingofundergroundtunnelsandlow-lyinginfrastructurerequiringdrainingandpumping,

•Increasedthermalexpansionofpavedsurfaces,potentiallycausingdegradationandreducedservicelife,duetohightemperaturesandincreaseddurationofheatwaves,

•Highermaintenanceandconstructioncostsforroadsandbridgesduetoincreasedtemperaturesandexposure,

•Asphaltdegradationandshorterreplacementcycles,leadingtolimitedaccess,congestion,andhighercostsduetohighertemperatures,

•Culvertanddrainageinfrastructuredamageduetoprecipitationintensityorsnowmelttiming,

•Increasedriskofvehiclecrashesinsevereweather.

(b)Rail

Railwaysareaglobalasset,withestimatesofconventionalrailwaystotalingaround1,060,000linekilometersin2018(IEA2023).Manyoftheserailwaysandsupportinginfrastructurewereconstructedmorethan150yearsagoandtheirperformanceduringweatherextremesisuncertain(Palinetal.2021).Intermsofrailtransport,heat-relateddelaysandinfrastructuredamagecouldcosttheUnitedStatesupto$60billionby2100ifnochangesaremadetotheassetmanagementregime(Chinowskyetal.2019).Further,impactsfromsea-levelrise,stormsurge,andcoastalfloodingthreatenfurthereconomiclossesanddisruption(Neumannetal.2021).Thesedisruptionswillhavecascadingimpactsacrossglobalsupplychainandfreighttransportationnetworksaswellasdisruptionstocommutermobilityandcommunityaccessibility.Tosummarizetheseimpacts,Palinetal.(2021)haveidentifiedthefollowing:

•Systemdowntime,derailments,slowertraveltimesduetorailbucklingandthermalexpansiononextremelyhotdays,

•Damagestooverheadlines,rockfalls,andicingandbreakageduetolowtemperaturesandfreeze-thawaction,

•Slopefailures,flooding,electronicequipmentdamage,andbridgescourduetofloodingandlandslides,

•Infrastructureslopefailure,trackmisalignment,andpolemisalignmentduetodroughtandsoilshrinkage/drying,

•Scourandstructuraldamageduetocoastalfloodingandwaves.

Consideringroadandrailtransporttogether,intheEastCoastoftheUnitedStates,forexample,3,800kmofroadwaysandrailwaysareatriskfortemporaryorpermanentinundationshouldsealevelsincreaseby58cm(WrightandHogan2008).InEurope,ten-foldincreasesindamagesassociatedwithbuckledpavementsduetoheatstress,coastalandinlandflooding,windstorms,andforestfiresarepossible(Forzierietal.2018).Afurthercompoundingrealityisthatmanyroadandrailinfrastructurenetworksalreadyexhibitsignificantdeteriorationandhavebeenbuilt(Neumannetal.2021).

4STRESSTESTFRAMEWORKFOREVALUATINGTHERESILIENCEOFTRANSPORTSYSTEMS

(c)PortsandInlandWaterways(IWW)

PortsandInlandWaterways(IWW)areseverelyvulnerabletonumerousclimatestressorsanddisruptionsbecauseoftheirgeographiclocationinlow-lyingareasadjacenttocoastsandriverplains;theirhighlystreamlined,optimized,anduniqueregionaloperations,andthefar-reachingandoccasionallycompoundingsupplychainimpactsofanydelaysoraccidents(PIANC2020A).Forexample,ChristodoulouandDemirel(2018)foundthatupto60percentoftheEuropeanUnionseaportsmaybeunderhighriskforinundationby2100undermaximumSLR(1meter).PortsandIWWarecriticaltoglobaltrade,movingover11billiontonsofgoods(or80percentofglobaltrade)andtheyare