高盛-中国策略：人工智能改变游戏规则 Al changes the game

17February2025|7:28AMHKT

ChinaStrategy

AIchangesthegame

TheDeepSeekmoment

KingerLau,CFA

+852-2978-1224|kinger.lau@

TheemergenceofDeepSeek-R1,inadditiontootherrecently-launchedChineseAI

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

modelsthatareseenasgloballycompetitiveandcost-effective,hasalteredthe

TimothyMoe,CFA

+65-6889-1199|timothy.moe@

narrativeofChinatechnology,re-ratedinvestors’optimismaboutthegrowthofand

GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

economicbenefitsfromAI,andhelpedsparka27%/19%rallyinHSTECH/MSCI

SiFu,Ph.D.

+852-2978-0200|si.fu@

Chinainthepast1month.SinceChatGPTwaslaunchedinNov2022,USequities

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

havesurged50%,addingUS$13tnofmarketcap.

KevinWang,CFA

+852-2978-2446|kevin.wang@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

AIisadditivetocorporateprofits,equitymultiples,andportfolioflows

WeestimatewidespreadAIadoptioncouldboostChineseEPSby2.5%/yearover

thenextdecade.ImprovinggrowthprospectsandperhapsaconfidenceboostcouldalsoraisethefairvalueofChinaequityby15-20%,andpotentiallyusherinover

US$200bnofportfolioinflows.ThesepromptustoraiseourMSCIChina/CSI300targetto85/4,700,with16%/19%implied12mupside.AspromisingasAIcouldbetoChina’sgrowthtrajectory,webelieveforcefulpolicystimulusisstillrequiredtoaddressdeep-rootedmacrochallengesanddrivesustainableequitygains.

AholisticequityinvestmentframeworkforChineseAI

WeorganizetheentireChinalisteduniverseintotwobroadgroups—AITechand

Non-Tech—andfurtherinto6thematiccohorts—Semi,Power&Infrastructure,Data&Cloud,Software&Application,RevenueGrowersandProductivityGainers,to

analyzetheidiosyncrasyintheAIecosystem.SimilartotheUScycle,ChineseSemiandAIInfrahavealreadyoutperformed,pointingtostrongpotentialforlater-cyclebeneficiariestocatchup.

Deep-seekingideasintheChineseAIecosystem

Formacroinvestorsandindexusers,HSTECHandCSI1000havethehighest

Tech/AIrepresentationamongkeybenchmarks.Thematically,welikeData&

Cloud,andSoftware&ApplicationastheAIcapexcyclemoderatesbutuse-casecreationandmonetizationgatherspace.WeintroduceourGSSelectChinaAI

PortfolioforbalancedandcomprehensiveexposuresacrossvariousstagesoftheAIdevelopmentcycle.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsChinaStrategy

ChineseAImontage

Exhibit1:DeepSeekhasbecomeanewbuzzwordintheTech/AIworld

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

ChatGPTGemini

LlamaDeepSeek

GoogleNewsSearchIndex(Worldwide)

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

basedonworldwidesearchresults

Source:GoogleTrends,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:StrongpickupinAIusageinChinasparkedbythelaunchofDeepSeek

MillionMillion

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

DailyuseofChineseinternetapps

Douyin(Jan2017

DeepSeek(Dec2024

toFeb1,2025)

J

toFeb2018)

Doubao(Jul2023to

Jan2025)

Kimi(Jan2024to

——Jan2025)

Th

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

12345678910111213141516171819Monthssinceintroduction

Source:Questmobile

Exhibit5:AIadoptionrateshavebeenrisinginChina,ledbytheTMTsectors

AIPenetrationrateinChina

202120222023

100%90%80%70%60%50%

40%30%20%10%0%

Source:H3T,CAICT,iiMediaResearch

Exhibit2:China’sAIdevelopmenthasoutpacedEUandUKfromamodelcreationperspective

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

109,US

Numberoffoundationmodelsbyselectgeographicarea,2019-23

US

China

EUandUK

20,China

15,EUandUK

20192020202120222023

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Source:StanfordUniversityArtificialIntelligenceIndexReport2024

Exhibit4:DeepSeek’sR1modelappearscompetitiveandcost-effectiveonaglobalbasis

ArtificialAnalysisQualityIndex

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

o1

o3-m

ini

DeepSee

k-R1

Gemini1.5

G

Pro

PT-4oCl

aude3.5

DeepS

QwenMax

eek-V3

Sonnet

Llama Llama3

3.370B.1405B

GPT-4o-m

ini

0102030405060

Price(USDper1MOutputTokens)

Source:ArtificialAnalysis,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:TheAIthemeintheUShashelpedproduceoneofthestrongestequitybullrunsintheUSstockmarket

(US$tn)TotalListedMarketCap

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

USChina(A+H+ADR)

ChatGPT

Initialreleaseof62.5

onNov30,2022

Releaseof

DeepseekR1onJan20,2025

15.5

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Source:FactSet,WFE,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17February20252

GoldmanSachsChinaStrategy

AIisadditivetocorporateprofits,equitymultiples,andportfolioflows

Corporateprofits:AIcouldraiseearningsby2.5%annuallyinthenextdecade

Conceptually,AIcouldboostcorporateearningsthroughthreemainavenues—productivitygains,costsavings,andnewrevenueopportunities.

nProductivitygains:Weapplyoureconomists’AI-drivenproductivityimprovementestimate(9ppcumulativeeffectonproductivitygrowthforChinainthenext10

years)totrendGDPgrowthandscaleitbytherevenue-to-GDPgrowthmultipliertoestimatethetop-lineimpacts.ThisapproachsuggeststhatifChinesecompaniesareabletoadoptAItoenhancelaborproductivity,theannualearningsgrowthofMSCIChinacouldbe1.1%higheronaverageinthenext10years.

nCostsavings:Ontheflipside,assumingtheefficiencygainswillonlybe

manifestedthroughautomationandlaboroptimization,weestimatethatMSCIChinacouldgeneratethesamelevelofrevenuewith3%lowerlaborcosts,

effectivelyraisingtheiraggregateearningsby1.8%annuallyovera10-yearhorizon.

nNewrevenueopportunities:Whilethetwotransmissionmechanismsabovemightbereflectingthetwosidesofthesamecoin,newbusinessmodelsandincrementalvalue-addedempoweredbynewtechnologiesshouldbenetpositivetothestock

marketasAIshouldnotbeazero-sumgamebetweennewmarketentrantsand

incumbents.Ourcapex-to-salesgrowthmodelshowsthatChinesefirmscould(net)improvetheirearningstrajectoryonhighertechnologyinvestmentsbyaround1%peryearinthenextdecade.

Exhibit7:AdoptionofAIcouldreducelaborcostsorincreaselaboroutputs,therebyraisingproductivitygains

CumulativeeffectofAIadoptiononproductivitygrowth(%,

10-yearadoptionhorizon)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

HongKong

Israel

Higher

USUK

EuroAreaBrazil

Japan

productivitygains

SingaporeSouthKorea

Global

MalaysiaTaiwan

SouthAfrica

TurkeyPhilippines

Egypt

Indonesia

MainlandChina

Thailand

VietnamHigherpotentialforAIadoption

India

1012141618202224262830

Shareoffull-timeequivalentemploymentexposedtoautomationbyAI(%)

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:WeestimatethatwidespreadAIadoptioncouldboostChinacorporates’earningsby2.5%perannumoverthenext

decade

IndexEarningsofMSCIChina

517

(base=100)

CAGR:+10.0%

480

440

Basecase

472

CAGR:+9.0%

411

+ProductivityGains/CostSavings

400

360

320

+ProductivityGains/CostSavings&NewRevenueOpportunities

CAGR:+7.5%

280

240

200

160

CAGR:+9.0%

120

80

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

2031E

2032E

2033E

2034E

Source:Wind,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Equitymultiples:15-20%upliftinfairvalueifAIbearsfruit

Onequitymultiples,weattempttotriangulatetheAIimpactsasfollows:

nRaisingthemedium-termEPSgrowthassumptionsinour

Dividend-Discount-Model(DDM)by2.5%wouldtranslateinto25%riseinfair

17February20253

GoldmanSachsChinaStrategy

value,ceterisparibus;

nTransnationally,empiricalevidencesuggestsapermanent0.3%up-shiftofROEdueto2.5%annualprofitenhancementsshouldcorrespondto13%re-rating

forthestockmarket,onouranalysis;

nApartialconvergenceoftheEPSgrowthandROEprofilesbetweenUSandChinaTechequitiestothemid-pointoftherespectiverangescouldnarrowthevaluationdiscounts(P/B)from75%atpresentto47%onourestimate,driving56%/16%potentialvaluationgainsforChinaTechandthebenchmarkindex;

nFundamentalsaside,wethinktheperceivedtechnologicalbreakthroughscouldprobablyshoreupprivatesectorconfidenceandbodewellforinvestmentin

tech-relatedareas.Weestimateameanreversionto55forEPMI,aproxyfor

corporateconfidenceinemergingindustriesinChina,fromcurrentlysuppressedlevels(48now)couldraiseindexPEby5%.

Exhibit9:OurestimatedfairPEmultipleforChinaequitycouldrisefrom11xto12x-13xifChinaissuccessfulinmonetizingthe

potentialbenefitsofAI

(x)

18

16

14

12

10

8

18.9MSCIChinafPE

Current:

11.2x

8.5

8.4

Average:12.7x

RisingmediumEPSgrowth:13.8x

NarrowingdiscounttoUSpeers:12.8x

RisingROE:12.5x

RisingEPMI:11.6x

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Dec-23

Jun-24

Dec-24

Jun-25

Dec-25

Source:MSCI,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit10:USTechequities’marketcaphasmorethandoubledinthepast2years

(US$tn)TotalmarketcapofAI-relatedstocks

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22

Jan-23

Jul-23

Jan-24

Jul-24

Jan-25

"ao6.8tn(22.9x)

17tn

ChinaAITech(2235stocks)

Initialr(31.4x)

USMag7

releaseofwr

ChatGPT

Releaseof

DeepseekR1

.t)on230,

6.8tn(26.3x)

-onJan20,2025

6tn

(17.8x)

4.0tn(13.6x)

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17February20254

GoldmanSachsChinaStrategy

17February20255

Exhibit11:TopChineseTechcompaniesaretradingatmeaningfuldiscountstotheirUSpeers

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

AImaybringinUS$200bnofnetbuyingforChinesestocks

nDatafromtheUSTreasuryDepartmentandEPFRindicatethatUSandinternationalinvestorshavenetboughtaroundUS$660bnofUSequitiesinthepastyear,

duringwhichSPXandNasdaqhaverisen20%and24%,andmorethanUS$10tnofmarketcapitalizationhasbeencreatedthere.

nExtrapolatingUSexceptionalismtotheChineseAIstorywouldbeaveryboldassumptiontomake,buttheDeepSeekoptimismhasstartedtodrive

meaningfulinflowstoChinesestocks,withhedgefundsincreasingtheir

net/grossexposurestoChinafromcyclelows,andSouthboundinvestors

aggressivelybuyingChinaTechnameslistedinHKinthepastcoupleofweeks.

nAssumingChinesecompaniesareabletogrowtheiraggregatemarketcapby

US$3tnintheensuing12monthsperourrevisedindextargets(seenextsection),andapplyingthenetinflowstomarket-capcreationratiosintheUStoChinese

stocks,weestimatethattheChineseAIstorycouldattractasmuchas

US$200bnofnetbuying(cumSouthboundflows,whichamountedtoUS$104bnin

2024)tothestockmarket,helpingtopartiallyreversetheconservativeandunderweightallocationsinChinaequityfromassetmanagersglobally.

GoldmanSachsChinaStrategy

Exhibit12:USandinternationalinvestorshavenetboughtmorethanUS$660bnofUSequitiesinthepastyear

Source:FactSet,USDepartmentofTreasury,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit14:MutualfundsandhedgefundshaveraisedallocationstoChinaequity,butstillatthelow-endofthe5-yearranges

ChinaWeight/NetExposureinActiveFunds

(PercentileOverthePastDecade)

GlobalHedgeFundsMutualFunds(Globally)AEJFunds

EMFundsGlobal/Globalex-USFunds

1%

8%

48%

EndNov2024

20%

EndDec2024

6%

EndJan2025

9%9%

33%

35%37%

mm54%

61%

8%

13%13%

0%20%40%60%80%

Chinaexposure(%-ile)

Note:HedgefunddataisbasedonGSPrimeServicesandrepresents5-yr%-ilegivenshorterhistory;MutualfunddataisbasedonEPFRasofDec-endandshows10-yr%-ile

Source:EPFR,MSCI,GoldmanSachsPrimeServices,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit13:TheChineseAIstorycouldbringinmorethanUS$200bnofnetportfolioflowsforChinesestocks

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit15:Globalfunds’exposurestoUSequitiesareatall-timehighswhiletheirallocationstoChinaareclosetohistoricallows

GlobalfundallocationinUSequities

(BasedonUS$1.2tnGlobalmandatefunds)

60%58%56%54%52%50%48%46%44%42%40%

16%14%12%10%8%6%4%

GlobalfundallocationinChineseequities-RHS

(BasedonUS$1.0tnGlobal/GlobalexUS/EM/Asiaactivefunds)

%ile)

58%(98th

%ile)

6.2%(9th

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22

Jan-23

Jul-23

Jan-24

Jul-24

Jan-25

Source:EPFR,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

RaisingtargetsonAIupsideoptionality;butpolicydeliveryiskeyforsustainablegains

nTheDeepSeeknewshasalreadycatalyzedoneofthemostsignificantChinese

equityralliesinrecenthistory,andhasledinvestorstocompareittothepowerful,butshort-livedupsurgeinSeptemberlastyear.Webelievethetwoepisodesare

fundamentallydifferent:thepolicypivotinSeptembertookoutthelefttailand

resultedinasubstantialrisk-compressionre-rating.Thelatesttechnology

breakthroughsaremoremicro-andinnovation-driveninnature,andareconducivetovaluationsaswellastoearnings,whichmightgivetherecoverymorestaying

powerthanthosethatwerepurelydrivenbypolicynewsandexpectationrepricing.

nWeraiseour12mtargetforMSCIChinaandCSI300from75and4,600to85and4,700respectively,withthenewtargetsimplying16%and19%potentialprice

returns.TheupgradesprimarilyreflectourhigherfairPEassumption(from11xto

12xforMSCIChina)andmodestupsiderisktoearningsinbothH-andA-sharesduetopotentialAIboost.

nAspromisingandstrategically-importantasAIcouldbetoChina’slong-termgrowthoutlook,we’demphasizethatforcefulpolicydelivery,notablyfiscalstimulus,is

17February20256

GoldmanSachsChinaStrategy

necessarytosoftentheimmediatetariffheadwinds,facilitatetherotationfrom

externaltodomesticdemand,circuit-breakthedisinflationaryspiral,andaddressotherentrenchedmacroimbalances,allofwhichwebelieveareneededtosupportearningsandextendthelongevityoftherally.

nImportantly,therisksrevolvingaroundChineseAIintermsofusage(e.g.data

privacy),industryregulation,nationalsecurity,disinflationarypressures(onthelabormarketandpricingcompetitionintradablegoods),andintensificationoftechnologyexportcontrolsfromtheWestareprobablynotunderthespotlightatpresentwheninvestorsaredigestingtheupsidesurprisesfromDeepSeek,andprevailingequityvaluationsarestillinexpensive.However,theyareallconsequentialtohowtheAIthememayevolveandtowhatextentitmayhelpre-ratethestockmarketinthe

yearstocome,warrantingcloseattentionfrominvestorsastheAIstoryunfolds.

Exhibit16:DeepSeekhastriggeredapowerfulbutlessconcentratedrallyrelativetohistoricalcomparables

Exhibit17:WeforecastMSCIChinatoreach85inthenext12months,implying16%pricereturnsfromcurrentlevels

MSCIChina(HKD)EPS(HKD)

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

+10%

MSCIChinaIndexPrice

85

12mIndexTarget

(+16%)

75

+9%

+7%

+12%

EPS

(RHS)

GS24/25/26EEPSGrowth

7.9

7.4

6.9

6.4

5.9

5.4

Dec-21Dec-22Dec-23Dec-24Dec-25Dec-26

Source:MSCI,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Source:FactSet,MSCI,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17February20257

17February20258

AholisticequityinvestmentframeworkforChineseAI

nLeveragingtheextensiveworkourMacro,Strategy,andSectorteamsgloballyhavepublishedonthesubjectofAI,weintroduceasystematicframeworkcenteringonChineseAItohelpinvestorscomprehendthedynamicsintheecosystem,

identifyinvestmentopportunities,andassessrisk/rewardinanerawhere

technologyisconstantlyevolvingandexpanding/changingtheinvestmentfrontier.

nFirst,wedividetheentireChinaequityuniverseintoAITechandNon-Techbasedonourclusteringanalysis,whichenablesustosplit66GICS3industrieswithatotalmarketcapofUS$14tnintotwobroadergroupsbasedontheirreturnaffinity(seeAppendix).

nSecond,withinAITech,weunpacktheUS$6tnmarketcapintoSemi(including

softwaredesign),Infrastructure(hardware,datastorage,coolingsystem),Data&Cloud(e.g.Internetplatformcompanies),andSoftware&Application

(autonomousdriving,biotech,humanoidrobotics,internetserviceproviders,etc)

accordingtotheirsectorclassificationandbusinessnatureinthetechsupplychain.

nThird,intheNon-Techuniverse(US$9tnintotal),wecategorizeUS$7tnofmarketcapinto:1)RevenueEnhancersthatmightbewell-placedtogenerateincrementalrevenuesduetotheirrelativelyhighinvestmentsinfuturegrowth(i.e.capexand

R&D);and2)ProductivityGainersthatcouldraisetheiroperationalefficiencyandprofitabilityusingtechnologygiventheirlabor-intensivecoststructures.

nLastly,weorganizevariousChinesesub-industriesandthematiccohortsintoascalebasedontheirrelativepricesensitivitytoNVIDIAandMETA.Thisallowsusto

betterunderstandtowhatextenttheChinesesectorsandAIproxiestradethetwodominanttrendsinthetechworld—capexandapplication—andassistinvestorstogainsensibleexposureswithintheecosystemasthedynamicsshift.

nKeyobservationsandinvestmentimplicationsareasfollows:

a.PartlyinfluencedbytheUSAIcycle,ChineseTechInfraandSemihaveledinthepast2yearsonsubstantialcapexspentincomputingpowerbuild-outandupgradeglobally.Botharetradingatabovemid-cyclevaluations,

suggestingthattheAIoptimism,andthethemeofChina’stechnologyself-reliance,seemquitewellpricedthere;

b.WithnewcapexonfoundationaltechnologygrowingatamoremoderatepaceinbothChinaandtheUS,andDeepSeekpotentiallyacceleratingtheadoptionofAIinChinaandshiftinginvestorfocustothecreationandmonetizationof

AIusecases,Data&Cloud,andSoftware&ApplicationmaytakeovertheleadershipfromSemiandInfraandstarttooutperformonstillbelowmid-rangedvaluationsandcomparativelybetterprofitgrowthpotential;

c.RevenueEnhancersandProductivityGainershavelaggedinboththeUSandChinaintheirrespectivetechcyclessofar,perhapsreflectingthe

uncertaintyregardingthecost-and-benefittrade-offandothersocial

considerations(e.g.laborreductionanddisinflation)thatAImayentail

socioeconomically.Webelieveinvestorswillcontinuetofocusonfundamental

17February20259

andpolicyfactorstoapproachthesepotentiallylate-stageAIbeneficiariesuntilthebenefitsarebetterquantifiedandshowcased.

OurAIinvestmentframeworkallowsustodis-aggregatetheentirelisteduniverseintoseveralthematiccohorts

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachsChinaStrategy

Exhibit18:AIapplicationproxiesintheUShaverecentlyoutperformed

[RHS]

IndexedPerformance(US$)

140

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

120

100

80

ChatGPT[LHS]GPT4o[RHS]DeepSeek

NVDA[1]

Infrastructure[2]

Enabledsales[3]

Productivity[4]

Nov-22

Feb-23

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

Aug-24

Nov-24

Feb-25

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit20:Software&Applicationisexpectedbyconsensustoleadtheearningsgrowthpath

ChinaAITech/Non-Tech

Non-Tech

AITech

42%

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

29%

22%

24%

19%

2023-27EEPS(4-year)CAGR(%)

7%

Data&Cloud

SoftwareApp

SemisInfra&Power

RevenueProductivity

EnhancersGainers

Source:FactSet,IBES,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit22:ModeratingAIcapexcycleinboththeUSandChina

US$bnLarge-CapInternet/HyperscalerCapexyoy,%

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

69%

13%

China(Bytedance,Alibaba,Tencent,Baidu)

USA(AWS,MSFT,GOOGL,META)

Total%yoy[RHS]

41%

12%

202220232024E2025E2026E

80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit19:TheemergenceofDeepSeekhassparkeda

concentratedrallyinData&CloudandSoftware&Application

RelativeIndexedPerformance(US$)

GPT4oDeepSeek

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

Data&Cloud

Software&Application

ProductivityGainers

ChatGPT

Infrastructure

&Power

Semiconductors

Revenue

Enhancers

Nov-22

Feb-23

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

Aug-24

Nov-24

Feb-25

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit21:Semiispricedatthehigh-endofitsvaluationrange,whileothercohortsaretradingatorbelowmid-cyclePEs

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

(5range)

ChinaAITech&Non-Techf12MP/E(X)

20-80%ile

Latest

5yrMED

Non-Tech

16.2

11.0(9%ile)

7.6

(95%ile)

13.5

(21%ile)

SemisInfra&PowerData&CloudSoftwareAppRevenueProductivity

38.2

(75%ile)

24.6

(18%ile)

AITech

(66%ile)

-year

EnhancersGainers

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source:FactSet,IBES,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit23:SomeAIproxiestradetheglobalcapexcyclemorewhiletheothersaremoresensitivetotheapplicationtrends

ChinaAITech/Non-Techrelativereturncorrelationwith

NVDA/META

Software

Semis

Data&Cloud

Aero&Def

ITSvcs

Infra&PowerSoftwareApp

Telecom

Autos

AutoComp

ConsSvcs

Semis

MoresensitivetpMETA

Retail

CommEquip

MoresensitivetoNVDA

IndepPower&Renewable

ElectricalEquip

Interactive

Electronic

Media

Equip

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17February2025