欧洲金融业的未来

SabineMauderer:TheEuropeanfinancialindustryofthefuture

SpeechbyDrSabineMauderer,FirstDeputyGovernoroftheDeutscheBundesbank,atthe6thFrankfurtDigitalFinanceConferenceandEuropeanFintechDay,FrankfurtamMain,12February2025.

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Ladiesandgentlemen,

I'mgladtojoinyoutodayatthe"GesellschaftshausPalmengarten".Itshistorygoes

backtothe19thcentury.Itwasthe"Gründerzeit"or"founders'period"–aneraofstrongeconomicexpansioninGermany–whenthisbuildingwasconstructed.Andwhen

Germanywasdevelopedasanindustriallocation.Developedbypeople,menandwomen,leadbycuriosity,innovation,andadesiretoachieve.

Wehavetocastourmindsbackafewyearstoseetimesofgrowth,realinnovationandincreasingproductivityinEurope.

1Theroleofthefinancialindustry

Inthe2010sGermanyhadaperiodofsolidgrowththatsomecalled"thegoldendecade".

Today,however,weseeaneedforgrowthandincreasingproductivity.Hence,our

competitivenessisatstake.NotonlyinGermany,butalsoinotherpartsofEurope.Andthiscomesatatime,whenwearefacingnumerousmajorchallenges:

Considerthesignificantgeopoliticaluncertaintiesofourtime–whichmakearethink

necessaryinmanyrespects.Alsoconsiderthedigitalisationoflargepartsofour

economy,incl.disruptiveAI.Andthinkabouttheclimate-relatedneedforanecologicaltransformation.

Financingallofthisrequiresasubstantialamountofcapital.

Thisiswherethefinancialindustrycomesin:Thefinancialindustrycanactasanenablerofgrowthintherealeconomy.Growththatissomuchneededrightnow.

Lookingforward,thefinancialindustrycouldtranslategrowthpotentialintorealgrowthinmanyfields–digitalisation,AI,cleantech,pharma,biotechanymanymore.

Insum,therearehugebusinessopportunitiesforGermanyandtheEU.AndweneedtheFinancialindustrytotakeadvantageofthebusinessopportunities.

Butletusnotforgetthatinnovationhappensinmanyplaces–atstart-upsbutalsoatwellestablishedcompanies.Weneedtomakesurethatavarietyoffundingsourcesareavailabletosupportourrealeconomies.

1/5BIS-Centralbankers'speeches

Weneedaspecificfinancialecosystemthatenablesyoung,innovativecompaniestoflourish.BeitVC,PE,etc.Weneedestablishedcapitalmarkets.Aboveall,weneedastrongandhealthybankingsectorthatsuppliesoureconomywithsufficientcredit.

Thatmeans:Weneedbothtraditionalloansandventurecapital.Inanycase,allthepocketsofthefinancialindustryprovidethebasisforagrowingeconomy.It'salsothebasisforthedigitalandecologicaltransformation.

TheGermanCouncilofExpertsonClimateChangepublished[aweekago]newfiguresontheinvestmentneedsestimatedforthetransitiontowardsnet-zeroeconomicactivity.Thoseinvestmentneedsrangebetween135and255billioneuro–eachyearfor

Germanyalone.

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That'salot.

Let'snowhaveacloserlookatthedigitalizationincludingAI.

2Artificialintelligence:innovationandcompetitiveness

Thetermartificialintelligence(AI)wascoinedinthemiddleofthe20thcentury.ButitwasthereleaseofChatGPTinNovember2022thatmarkedabreakthrough.ForthefirsttimeitbecamepossibletouseanAIsystemwithoutdetailedtechnicalknowledge.

NowadaysalmostanyonecanuseAI.TheimportanceofresponsibleAIpracticesontheincrease–ashighlightedinthelatestDeclarationbytheG20.

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Thereareimportantquestions–towhich,tobehonest,therearenosimpleanswers:AretheopportunitiesandrisksofAIbalanced?

DoesAIleadtoaglobalfragmentation,toanewbarrierbetweenthosewhouseAIandthosewhodon't?

DoesAI,asageneral-purposetechnology,helpusbettermanageeconomicchallenges?

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Oneexampleofthelatterpoint:Manysocietiesarelackingskilledlabourduetodemographicchange.Here,theuseofAIcouldprovideasolutionbyincreasingefficiencyorsubstitutinghumanservices.AIcanalsohelpdriveinnovation.

AIenablesbothincrementalanddisruptiveinnovationacrossallpartsofsociety:

byfacilitatingfasterdecision-makingoptimizingexistingprocesses,

orbycollecting,processingandusinghugeamountsofdata.

Itfosterscreativity,supportsscientificbreakthroughs,andunlocksopportunitiesforentirelynewindustriesandbusinessmodels–apotential,albeitdisruptive,growthengine.

2/5BIS-Centralbankers'speeches

Nevertheless,humancreativityisstillakeydriverofinnovation.In2023,individualsorSMEsfiledalmostoneinfourpatentapplicationsinEurope.

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Today,weareatacrucialstage:Withinternationalcompetitionontheonesideand

technicalandintellectualskillsontheother.AImodelsfromtheUnitedStatesarewell-knownandoftenconsideredstateoftheart.Chinainparticularhasrecentlycomeupwithnewandapparentlyveryefficientlanguagemodels.However,thediscussionaboutthebackgroundisnotyetcomplete.

InEurope,wehavetodoourutmosttokeepupwiththepace.AnimportantinitiativerecentlycamefromFrance:InParisthe"EUAIChampionsInitiative",ahigh-level

summit,washeldatthebeginningofthisweek.

PresidentMacronmentionedafundingvolumeofroundabout€109billionforAIin

France.ThisapproachisveryencouragingforotherEUmemberstates.Bycomparison:US-PresidentTrumphasmentionedUSD500billionforhis"Stargate"planintheUS.

Despitethesesubstantialinvestments,thereisnoguaranteeofsuccess.Ontheotherhand,wemustnotallowourselvestobedeterredbypossiblefailures.OneexampleistheFrenchAIchatbotLUCIE,whichhasbeentakenofflineaftergivingsomeweird

answers.IamsureFrancewilltakethisasachancetotryevenharder.

Thenarrativewithallkindofinnovationis:Acceptfailuretogrow.Thepioneersofthe"Gründerzeit"–whichImentionedearlier–knewthisonlytoowell.

Weneedthiskindofcouragetoembracea"cultureoftrialanderror".Itprovidesanimportantimpetustodothingsbetter.Ontheotherhand,wehavetoensurethatnewtechnologydoesnotcauseseveredamage.EspeciallybecauseAIisarelativelynewtechnologywithunknownpotentialandconsequencesfortheentiresociety.

Riskscanariseforthefinancialsystem,butmuchfurtherafieldaswell.Imagine,riskmanagementorinvestmentadvicewouldbeprovidedmainlybyAI.Wouldthismeanthatinvestmentrecommendationsarebecomingmoreandmoresimilar?Wouldwehaveconcentrationofrisks?Andwhatconsequenceswouldthishaveforfinancialstability?

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Evenmorefar-reachingquestionsconcernoursociety.

Thecorequestionis:WhatdoesAImeanforourdemocracies,forourconstitutions,forourfundamentalrights?Specifically,weneedtoaskourselves:WhereisAIbeneficialandwheredoweneedclearrules.

Inotherwords:Whatarethebasicrulesforusingthistechnology?

Itisthereforenecessarytofindacompromisebetweenhavingthecouragetoinnovate–andclearrules.

3Strengtheningthefinancialindustry

3/5BIS-Centralbankers'speeches

RegardlessofhowwedealwithAI,wehavetoreturntotheissueoffinancingitsdevelopment.Asindicatedearlier,thefinancialindustry,asanenabler,hasanimportantroletoplay.

GiventhechallengesofourtimeImentionedearlier,itisvitaltostrengthentheEuropeanfinancialindustry.

Letmehighlightonlytwomeasures:

First,weneedtogetstartedonimprovingstart-upfunding.In2024,morethan2,700innovativestart-upswerefoundedinGermany,thesecond-highestcountafterthe

recordyearof2021.Thereisnoshortageofinnovativeconceptsandentrepreneurshipperse,butimplementationislacking.

FurthercompletingtheEuropeancapitalmarketsunion(CMU)isessentialinthis

respect–promotingthedevelopmentoftheVCandprivateequitymarketaswellasexitoptionsforstart-ups.TheEuropeanCommission's"CompetitivenessCompass",

publishedrecently,29January2025,isagoodstart.

Second,weneedtoleveragedigitaltechnologiestocreateefficient,integratedand

resilientEuropeanfinancialmarkets.ThedigitalCMUcouldbeagamechangerinthisrespect.

Letmemakeitperfectlyclear:Europeisaleaderinthisfield.

WeattheBundesbankareengagedinseveralinitiatives.Andwehaveaprominentroletoplayinthedevelopmentofacentralbankdigitalcurrency(wholesaleCBDC).

4Conclusion

Ladiesandgentlemen,letmesumup:An