【毕马威KPMG】2025大重置基础设施与交通领域新兴趋势研究报告

TheGreatReset

Emergingtrendsin

infrastructureandtransport

2025edition

KPMG.MaketheDifference.

KPMGInternational|

/infratrends

Foreword:

Reset2025

WeareinthemidstofaGreatReset.Protection

ofnationalinterestsareatthetopoftheagenda.

Economiesarebeingreshaped.Alliancesand

supplychainsarebeingrewired.Thefrequencyandseverityofweathereventsareincreasing.Andsocialexpectationsandnormsarebeingrevised.

2|TheGreatReset:Emergingtrendsininfrastructureandtransport

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Whilethesechangeshavebeenunderwayforsometime,theyare

notincremental.Wearefacingchangesthataremassive,lastinganddisruptive.Andtheyrequireinfrastructureandgovernmentleaderstothinkverydifferentlyaboutthefuture.

SomeaspectsofthisGreatResetarefundamental.In2024,planet

Earthsurpassedthe1.5-degreethresholdfor11ofthe12monthsoftheyear1—ittookyearstobreachtheceiling,buttheimpactofdoingsoishugelyconsequential.Andasaresult,astheworldracestodecarbonize,theenergytransitionisupendingahugepartoftheworldeconomy.

Otheraspectswillseemabitlessnewsworthyatthetimebutwill

havetremendousimpacts—thedigitalintegrationofsupplychains,forexample.Yeteachwillcreatenewchallengesandopportunities.

Inthefaceofongoingfundamentalchange,infrastructureexecutives,

policymakersandinvestorswillneedtobeclear-sightedandwillingtotakerisks.Bigdecisionsshouldbemade—oftenquicklyandonincomplete

information.Andthosewhostaretoolongattheproblemwilllikelyfind

themselvesleftoutofthesolution.Collaborationskillsarebecomingmoreimportant.Visionaryleadersareneeded.

ThiseditionofEmergingTrendsinInfrastructureandTransportisintendedtoprovokedebatetohelpinfrastructureexecutives,policymakersand

investorsthinkthroughthefuture.Todevelopthesetrends,Iasked10

ofourglobalinfrastructureleaderstoprovidetheirperspectivesonhowaglobalresetisinfluencingthesector.Theirviewsprovideacompellinglistoftrendsandpredictionsthatwebelievewillimpacttheinfrastructuresectoroverthecomingyear.

1Annual2024GlobalClimateReport,NationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation,2024

3|TheGreatReset:Emergingtrendsininfrastructureandtransport

Butourauthorsdon’tjuststareattheproblem;instead,theylook

forwardtosharetheirbestpredictionsonhowthesetrendswillplayoutinthefutureandoffertheirviewsonhowbesttonavigatethem.

AtKPMG,ourgloballyconnectedorganizationofinfrastructureand

transportprofessionalsarededicatedtohelpingpublicandprivatesectororganizationsmakeconfidentdecisionsinthefaceofuncertaintyand

complexity.Fromstrategythroughtoexecutionandimplementation,ourpeopleworkalongsideourclientstohelpthemachievetheirobjectives—efficientlyandeffectively.

Theoldstatusquohasbeendemolished.Newnormsandexpectationsarerapidlybeingformed.AGreatResetisuponus.

Tolearnmoreaboutthetrendsandtopicsraisedinthisreport,ortodiscussyourorganization’suniquechallengesandopportunities,

IencourageyoutocontactyourlocalKPMGmemberfirm.

RichardThrelfall

GlobalHeadofInfrastructure,GovernmentandHealthcareKPMGInternational

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Meettheauthors

Clickonanauthorphototolearnmoreabouttheauthorandtheirinsights.

MoniqueGiese

GlobalHeadofShippingKPMGinGermany

ClayGilge

CapitalProjectsLead,

Principal,Infrastructure,

CapitalProjects&ClimateAdvisory,KPMGintheUS

JanetGreenwood

LisaKelvey

DavidSmallbone

GlobalLeadfor

SustainableInfrastructure,

KPMGintheUK

Partner,MajorProjectsAdvisory,

EMAHeadofInfrastructure

KPMGintheUK

Partner,Infrastructure

AdvisoryGroup,

KPMGintheUK

AdamJohnson

JamieSamograd

SharadSomani

AssociateDirector,

GlobalExecutivefor

Infrastructure&Transport

KPMGInternational

NationalIndustryLeader,

Infrastructure

KPMGinCanada

HeadofInfrastructure,

KPMGAsiaPacific

KPMGinSingapore

KPMGAustralia

PrahladTanwar

Partner,GlobalHeadof

Logistics&PostalServices

KPMGinIndia

JulianWatts

Partner,Engineering&

AssetManagement

4|TheGreatReset:Emergingtrendsininfrastructureandtransport

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Contents

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Clickonthetopicsbelowtolearnmoreabouteachtrend.

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Funding:TheGreatSustainability:FixingthemissingNewassetclasses:SmarterResilience:ComplacencywillEnergytransition:

PrivatizationmiddleinfrastructurerequiressmarterstrategieslikelyleadtocatastrophePrioritizingpragmatism

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Supplychain:InsearchDigitization:SeeingvalueConstruction:InnovationCapacity:DeliveringShipping:Hasthe

ofstandardsfromdigitaltwinsunlockedthepipelinepartyended?

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Funding:TheGreat

Privatization

Theinfrastructurefundinggapisgrowingexponentially.Backin2017,theG20thoughtitmighthitUS$15trillionperyearby2040.2AccordingtotheWorldBank,welikelyreachedthatpointin2023.3

Allsignssuggestthegapiswideningonbothsides.Governments

aretryingtobalancearangeoffundingprioritiesandthatisreducing

theirfiscalcapacityforinfrastructure.Atthesametime,demandfor

newandmoreresilientinfrastructureisclimbing,drivenbyeconomic,environmental,technicalandsocialpressures.Closingthegapwillbeakeypriorityforgovernmentsaroundtheworld.

Frustratingly,thesolutiontoclosingthisgaphasbeenobviousforsometime.Governmentsaresittingonatreasuretroveofassets.Indeed,a

studyof38countriesbytheIMFfoundmorethanUS$100trillionworthofassetsongovernmentbooks,includingkeyinfrastructuresuchas

bridges,roadsandutilities.Andinstitutionalinvestorsaresittingona

treasuretroveofcapital.Theworld’stop500assetmanagerscollectivelymanagemorethanUS$128trillion.4Thealignmentisobvious.

JamieSamograd

NationalIndustryLeader,Infrastructure

KPMGinCanada

jwsamograd@kpmg.ca

JamieSamograd

Jamieisthenationalleaderfortheinfrastructureadvisory

practiceinCanada.Inhis30yearsofexperiencebothin

CanadaandtheUK,Jamiehasledtransactionsinseveral

Governmentsrecognizethesolutionbutarewaryofpursuingit.

sectorsincludingpowerandutilities,transportation,energyandnaturalresources,andtelecommunicationsanddigitalinfrastructure.Jamie’sfocusisoncoordinatingandprovidingtransactionadvisoryservicesacrossmanyaspectsofM&Aincludingbuy-sideandsell-sideduediligence,carve-outs,

initialpublicofferings,privateplacements,transactionmanagement,andfinancings.

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2GlobalInfrastructureOutlook,G20,July2017

3Howcanweensurethat“moneyinthebank”leadsto“shovelsintheground?”,WorldBankBlogs,May25,2023

4

/en-ca/news/2024/10/worlds-largest-investment-managers-see

-assets-hit-dollar-128-trillion-in-return-to-growth

6|TheGreatReset:Emergingtrendsininfrastructureandtransport

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What’smore,manyoftheworld’sleadinginstitutionalinvestorsare

extraordinarilygoodatmanagingandevenimprovinginfrastructureassets.Assourcesofpatientcapital,theirinvestmentstrategiesalignnicelywith

infrastructurelifecycles.Andasfiduciariesoftheirclients’retirementsavings,theyarekeenlyfocusedonstabilityacrosstheassetlifecycle.

Yet—withafewnotableexceptions—mostgovernmentsremain

reluctanttotransferassetstotheprivatesector.Theyknowtheyhavebuiltupunsustainablelevelsofpublicdebt.Butmanyconsiderinfrastructure

tobetheremitofthepublicsector.Andtheyworryabouttheimpactofprivatizationonservicequality,accessandaffordability.Simplyput,governmentsrecognizethesolutionbutarewaryofpursuingit.

Reset2025

Muchwillchangein2025.Insomecountries,risingbondyieldson

governmenttreasurieswillincreasethecostofcapitalforgovernments.Atthesametime,weareseeingtheretreatofbilateralinvestment

(particularlyfromChina)anddevelopmentaidwhichisfurther

underminingemergingmarketfiscalcapacity.Forthosemakinglocalcurrencyinvestments,arisingUSdollarisaddingtofinancialwoes.

Atthesametime,demandfornewinfrastructurewilllikelyskyrocket

thisyearascitizensputpressureongovernmentstodeliverquickwins,moreresilientinfrastructureandmoremodernizedservices.Formanycountries,theabilitytodeliverontheseexpectationswilllikelybekeytohelpingensuresocialandeconomicstabilitygoingforward.

Thegoodnewsisthatperceptionsandbiasesseemtoberapidlyevolving.

Thegoodnewsisthatperceptionsandbiasesseemtoberapidly

evolving.Followingnationalelectionsinmorethan60countriesin2024(manyofwhichsawincumbentsejectedorweakened),weareseeingachangeofpoliticalperspectivesaroundtheworld.Manyofthosenewgovernmentsareprovingtobemorecommercial,morerealistandmoreopentonewideasthantheirpredecessors.

Citizenopennesstotheprivatizationofinfrastructureisalsoontherise.AccordingtothemostrecentEdelmanTrustBarometer,citizensgloballyareabout10percentagepointsmorelikelytotrustbusinessversus

government.5Thissuggeststhatmanycitizenswouldnowbemore

comfortablewithsomeinfrastructureassetsmovingintoprivatehandsandownership.

Ourpredictionandadvice

Thisyear,weexpecttoseesignificantcompetitionbetweenstatestoattractandcapturepatientcapital.SomecountrieswillfollowIndia’sleadbycreatingaNationalAssetMonetizationPipeline(NMP)alongsidecentralbodiesto

accelerategrowthandattractprivateinvestmentwithinspecificsectors(forexample,theNHAIintheroadssectorortheSECIinrenewableenergy).

Manywillfocusoncreatingclearandconsistentpipelinesofassetstobringtomarket,supportedbyclearregulatoryregimesandtransparentoversightthatprotectscitizenoutcomeswhileencouraginginnovation,reinvestmentandreasonablereturnsforprivatesectorinvestors.Clearcost/benefit

messagingtocitizens—oftenbyaligningthesaleofaparticularassetwiththedevelopmentofanewassetorservice—willlikelyalsobekey.

Thisyear,weexpecttoseesignificantcompetitionbetweenstatestoattractandcapturepatient

capital.

Inthisenvironment,governmentswillneedtostartassessingtheirportfoliosofassetstounderstandwhatcanbebroughttomarket,whatassetsrequiremoresupporttobecomecommerciallyviableandwhatassetsmustremainonthegovernmentbooks.Andtheywillwanttoprovidesomeguidancetoinvestorsaroundthetypesofassetstheywillbringtomarketandassociatedtimelines.Messagingtocitizensandtonationalpensionfundsand

institutionalinvestorswillalsobekey.

Fortheirpart,institutionalinvestorswillneedtobecomemoreproactiveasagradualincreaseofnewassetscomestomarket,likelysectorbysector.

Giventhecomplexityofthetransactionsandthequantumofinvestment

required,institutionalinvestorswouldbewisetostartidentifyingtargetsandassetclassesthataligntotheirinvestmentstrategiesandbegintheirdue

diligence,outreachandinternaldiscussionsassoonaspossible.

TheGreatPrivatizationiscoming.Preparationwillbekey.

52025EdelmanTrustBarometer,EdelmanTrustInstitute,2025

7|TheGreatReset:Emergingtrendsininfrastructureandtransport

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Supplychain:

Alackofsupplychainstandardsisdrivingupcosts,underminingefficiencyandkillingtheenvironment.

Insearchofstandards

Intheeraofnextdaydelivery,onemightimaginethatglobalsupply

chainsaretight,efficientandaligned.Yetthatisnotthecase.Infact,

therealityisthatmostelementsofglobalsupplychainsarefractured,

unstandardizedandmisaligned.Andthatiscreatingmassivecommercialandenvironmentalchallengesforcompanies,suppliersandcustomersaroundtheworld.

PrahladTanwar

Partner,GlobalHeadofLogistics&PostalServicesKPMGinIndia

prahladtanwar@

PrahladTanwar

PrahladistheGlobalHeadofLogistics&PostalServiceswith20yearsoftransportandlogisticsconsultingandindustry

experiencespanningIndia,China,U.S.,Germany,UAE,

OmanandKuwait.PrahladsupportsKPMGclientsincludinglogisticsoperators,PEinvestors,regulatorsandend-usersontransportandlogisticsinitiatives.SolutionsincludeM&Aassistance,marketentry,commercialduediligence,growthstrategy,costoptimizationandsalesandprocurement

transformation.

Lookingacrossglobalsupplychains,weseethreekeyareasof

misalignment.Thefirstisinfrastructure.It’snotjustthequalityand

consistencyofroads,railsandportswhichdiffersignificantly(andimpacttheefficiencyofsupplychains)acrossmarketsandregions,it’salso

thingslikewarehouses,trucks,palletsandoperatingsystems.Everyswitchcausedbyinconsistentstandardsaddscostandcarbon.

Regulationisanotherareaofincreasingfriction.Ontheonehand,

organizationsneedtocomplywithamyriadofdifferentregulationsrelatedtotransportation,logisticsandtrade.Atthesametime,governmentsarepromulgatingnewregulations(likeCBAMintheEU)toregulatesupply

chainsustainability.Evensomethingassimpleasdifferentnomenclaturescanaddfrictiontothesupplychain.

Mostelementsofglobalsupplychainsarefractured,unstandardizedandmisaligned.

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Thethirdareaofmisalignmentrelatestoprocesses–reportingprocesses,operationalprocesses,supplychainprocessesandsystemprocesses,forexample.Thesetendtobelocally-derived,oftentailoredbycustomerand

shipment,andcontainsignificantvariations.Thesecanaddcost,carbonandrisktothesupplychainasvendorstrytoaligntodifferentprocessesacrosstheircustomerpool.

Whatsupplychainleadersareincreasinglyrecognizingisthatthesefrictionpointsarecreatingmassivechallengesfortheirbusinessoperations.Frictionandinconsistencycandriveupcosts,createmorecarbon,increaserisksandreduceefficiency.Itcanmakeplanningandinvestmentmorecomplexandchallenging.Itcanreduceflexibilityandagility.Anditimpactssupplychaintransparency.Standardizationwouldallowsupplychainleaderstocreate

moreefficientandresilientoperations.

Theproblemisthattherearenocentralauthoritiesresponsibleforsupply

chainstandardization.Inmostcases,supplychainprocessesandoperationsaredefinedbycustomers.Bigretailers,forexample,oftendictatetherulesofengagementtotheirsuppliers,bothforcommercialandsustainability

reasons.Globalindustrybodieshavebeensloworreluctanttodrive

change.Regulatorsaremovingatdifferentspeedsand,often,withdifferentobjectives.Nationalgovernmentsarewaryofoversteppingtheirbounds.

Nobodyisreallyfocusedondrivingstandardizationacrossglobalsupplychains.

Whichmeansnobodyisreallyfocusedondrivingstandardizationacrossglobalsupplychains.

Reset2025

Thisyear,expecttoseesupplychainscomeundermassivepressureastradewarsstarttoheatupandnewtariffsandregulationsareimposedinkeymarkets.Indeed,basedonrecentrhetoricfrompoliticiansglobally,allsignssuggestweareenteringadynamicperiodcharacterizedbytheimplementationoftariffsandcounter-tariffs.Agilitywillbekey.

Atthesametime,expecttoseerisingdemandoncompaniestoassessandmanagetheirScope3emissionswithintheirsupplychain.Inpart,thiswillbedrivenbynew(andlikelyinconsistent)regulationsonsupplychainsustainability.Itwillalsobeinresponsetogrowingdemandfor

transparentcarbonreportingfrominvestorsandcustomers.Supplychainswillbeunderthemicroscope.

Thecombinationshouldforcesupplychainefficiencyupthecorporate

agendaasorganizationsseektocreatemoreflexible,efficientand

resilientsupplychains.That,inturn,shouldencouragegovernments

andindustrybodiestomorecarefullystudytheissueand—inanideal

world—startcollaboratingwithorganizationstoleadthechargetowardssupplychainstandardization.

Ourpredictionandadvice

Tobeclear,thistrendismoreaboutachangeinmindsetsratherthan

measurableactionontheground.Ittakesyearsforstandardstobe

promulgated,socializedandfinalized.Ittakesevenlongerforthemtobeimplementedconsistentlyaroundtheworld.Indeed,thiswillbeayearofconvictionversusaction.

Thesefrictionpointsarecreatingmassivechallengesfortheirbusinessoperations

Whatwewillsee,however,isaclearrecognitionthatsomethingmustbe

done.Weexpecttoseemuchgreaterattentiononthisissuefromregulatorskeentocreategreateralignmentacrossmarketsinordertoreducethe

burdenonbusinessesandunlocknewgrowth.Industrybodies,ledbyport,airandtransportgroups,willlikelystarttobuildconsensusaroundacase

forchange.OEMsandothergiantpurchasingorganizationsshouldjumponboardrecognizingtheimmensevaluethatstandardizationcandeliver.

Forinfrastructureowners,developers,operatorsandinvestors,thedrive

forstandardizationwilllikelybringsignificantlong-termvalue.Buttheshift

shouldhappenfairlyquickly(inrelativeterms).Infrastructureplayersshould

beseriouslyconsideringhowtheycanstarthelpingtoshapeanddrive

standardswithintheirspheresofinfluence.Andtheyshouldbecarefully

examininghowtheimplementationofstandardsmightinfluencetheircurrentplans,designsandinvestments.

Supplychainstandardizationwillbeaboonforcompanies,consumersandtheclimate.Infrastructureplayersshouldembraceitwholeheartedly.

Supplychainstandardizationwillbeaboonforcompanies,consumersandtheclimate.

9|TheGreatReset:Emergingtrendsininfrastructureandtransport

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Sustainability:

Fixingthe

Sustainabilityhasmovedfromamatterofprincipleinto—simply—goodbusinesssense.Nowthebigchallengeisinclosingthemissingmiddlebetweenactionandambition.

missingmiddle

Executivesarerecognizingthatembeddingsustainabilityconsiderationsintodecision-makingissimplyeffectiveleadership.Whowouldn’twant

toknowwheretherisksareinthesupplychain?WhatCFOwouldturn

downtheopportunitytoidentifywheretheycancutwaste,costs(and,bytheway,carbon)?Wouldanyboardnotwanttomitigatetheirexposuretorisingcommodityprices?

Wehavestartedtoseebusinessandpoliticalleadersthinkmore

holisticallyabouttheimpactoftheirdecisionsandactions—notjustoncarbonemissions,butalsoonecosystems,biodiversity,societiesand

individuals.Withthis‘wholesystem’lens,leadersarenotonlyformingabetterviewoftheirrisksbutalsoidentifyingclearopportunitiesforaction.

JanetGreenwood

GlobalLeadforSustainableInfrastructure,KPMGintheUK

janet.greenwood@kpmg.co.uk

JanetGreenwood

JanetGreenwoodisKPMG’sGlobalLeadforSustainable

Infrastructure.In2024JanetwonTheTimesConsultant

oftheYearandManagementConsultanciesAssociation

ExperiencedLeaderAward.SheisChairoftheMajor

Whowouldn’twanttoknowwheretherisksareinthesupplychain?

ProjectsAssociationsSustainabilityAmbassadors,amemberoftheInstitutionofCivilEngineer’sInspiringEngineering

ExcellenceBoardandfoundermemberoftheCambridgeUniversityCentreforSmartInfrastructureinConstruction’sCarbonCode.

APolicyFellowoftheInstitutionofCivilEngineers,shehasextensiveexperienceindeliveringsustainability,socialvalueandcarbonprioritiesinmajorconstructionprojectsand

supportingbuiltenvironmentclientstodelivertheirmost

challengingprogrammes.Shehasover30years’experienceinthebuiltenvironment,havingworkedacrosssectorssuchaswater,wastewater,flooddefenseandtransport.

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Businessleadersarestartingtorealizethatweareapartof,notapart

from,nature.Considertheairyouarebreathing.Oneoutofeverytwobreathsyoutakeusesoxygenproducedbyforestsandtrees.Theothercomesfromtinyplanktonfeastingonwhaleandfishexcrementin

theoceansandseas.6Weknowwearelosingthefighttoprotectour

forests—globaltreecoverhasdeclined12percentsince2000.7Weareonlynowwakinguptohowmuchdamagewe’vedonetoouroceans.

Theimpactonpeople,businessesandenvironmentsisalreadyevident.

Stormsandclimateemergenciesarebecomingmorecommon.Business

costsarerisingasleadersgrapplewithnewsupplychainandfinancingrisks.Thenaturalenvironmentsonwhichsomanybusinessesdependareunderattack;since1970,themonitoredpopulationofmammals,birds,amphibians,reptilesandfishhavedeclinedbyanaverageof73percent.8

Thankfully,therecognitionthatwearereliantonnatureisbecoming

mainstream,inpartasaresultofhelpfulinitiativesliketheTaskforce

onNature-relatedFinancialDisclosures(TNFD),whichhaspublished

recommendationsandguidanceaimedathelpingorganizationsreportonnature-relatedissueswithintheirbusinessesandtakeactiononthem.

Theimpactonpeople,businessesandenvironmentsisalreadyevident.

Manyorganizations—publicandprivate—have

madepubliccommitmentsthattheyarenotsettingthemselvesuptomeet.

Reset2025

Whichbringsusbacktothemissingmiddle.Therealityisthatmany

organizations—publicandprivate—havemadepubliccommitments

thattheyarenotsettingthemselvesuptomeet.Theyrecognizetherisksthatlieahead,yetthefocusremainsoncost-driventhinkingratherthanfocusingonvalueprotectionorvaluecreation.

Inspiredbyamoreholisticviewoftherisksandopportunities,webelieve2025willseegovernmentsandbusinessesstarttofocusonresetting

thatmissingmiddle.Itwillbeayearwhereleaderstrytoalignambitionwithaction,intentwithinvestmentandobjectiveswithoutcomes.

Ourpredictionandadvice

Drivenbykeyregulationsandmotivatedbyprudentcorporatesupplychainmanagement,weexpectbusinessandgovernmentleaderstostartaskingtherightquestionstoenactsustainablechange.Buildingownerswilllikelywanttoknowtheoriginsandfootprintofthematerialstheyuse.Operators

Itwillbeayearwhereleaderstrytoalignambitionwithaction,intentwithinvestmentandobjectiveswithoutcomes.99

shoulddemandmoretransparentsustainabilityinformationfromsuppliers.Governmentswilllikelyleveragetheirspendtoembedsustainability

requirements(particularlyinprioritypolicyareaslikehousing).

Thatwillrequireleaderstoreassesstheircommitmentsandpoliciestohelpensurethat—onaday-to-daybasis—theirorganizationsaredoingthingsthatactuallyalignwiththeirobjectives