【欧睿咨询】2025全球五大尼古丁行业趋势

TopFiveTrendsinNicotine

AEuromonitorPresentationfor2Firsts,March2025

ErwinHenriquez,IndustryManagerNicotine

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

INTRODUCTION

TodaysPresenter

ErwinHenriquez

IndustryManager,Nicotine

Erwinisresponsibleforthedirectionandqualityof

Euromonitor’scontentcoveringthenicotineindustry.Heprovidesglobalexpertiseandforward-thinkinginsightsandidentifieskeymarkettrends.

2

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Today’sinsights

Stateoftheindustry

Top5trendsshapingtheindustryFutureoutlook

Keytakeaways

3

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Stateoftheindustry

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

STATEOFTHEINDUSTRY

Nicotinesnapshot

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024edition

6,483bn

TotalmarketvolumeinStickequivalentin2023

927bn

Totalmarketvaluein2023

-0.1%

LegalmarketvolumeforecastCAGR2023-2028

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Decreasingprevalenceandvisibilityoftheindustry

Expandinglandscapeofnicotineconsumption

Top5trendsin

Nicotine

Regulatorypressuresandadvancements

Consumptionpolarisationandconsumersensitivities

Beyondnicotineandthenextstimulants

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

TOP5TRENDSSHAPINGTHEINDUSTRY

Decreasingprevalenceand

visibilityoftheindustry

Smokingpopulationgrowth2023-2028exclChina‘000people

Smokingpopulationgrowth

(4,927)-4,878

PoweredbyBing

Thedecliningsmokingpopulation

convertsintoachangeinthesocialroleofsmoking.

Organicvolumegrowthinthecigarettemarketisexpectedtobequitelimited.However,companiescanstillfacilitateconsumers’transitiontoreduced-riskproductsandaddressconsumer

demand.

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024edition

14

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Choose

Milanimplements

abanonall

outdoorsmoking

CigarettesmokersinMilanbeingpushedintothe

backstreetandoutofviewlimitingthevisibilityof

productsandreinforcingtheideathatsmokingisundesirable.

18%

Globalconsumersthatusecigarettesdaily

44%

Globalconsumers

believeregulationshould

bemorerestrictive

21%

ofdailycigaretteusersuseatleasttwotypesof

products

Imagesource:

Source:EuromonitorVoiceoftheConsumer:NicotineSurvey,fieldedJanuarytoFebruary2024

15

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

TOP5TRENDSSHAPINGTHEINDUSTRY

Consumptionpolarizationand

consumersensitivities

Total(Legal)Growth:Global2019-2023

%growthofvolume(sticks),value(rsp)andprice(rsp/sticks)

12%

9%

6%

3%

0%

-3%201820192020202120222023

VolumeValuePrice

Thenicotineindustryisfacing

significantchallengesduetolimited

volumegrowth,reduceddisposable

incomes,andincreasingregulatory

pressures,whichmayleadtoadeclineinrevenue,especiallyindeveloping

markets.

Companiescanexploreofferingawiderrangeofproductsatvariousprice

points,includinglow-costoptionsandpremiumproducts.

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024edition

16

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Brandrepositions

toretainmarketshare

JTIpositionedSovereigninthebudgetsegmentto

competewithother

affordablebrands.By

offeringthiswell-knownbrandatalowerprice,JTIaimedtoretaincustomersconsideringcheaper

alternatives

38%

2023-2028forecastunit

pricegrowthfor

cigarettes

23%

Shareofeconomy

brandsoutoftotal

globalcigarettevolume

60%

consumerssaypriceisveryimportantasaproductattribute

Source:

/

Source:EuromonitorVoiceoftheConsumer:NicotineSurvey,fieldedJanuarytoFebruary2024

17

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

TOP5TRENDSSHAPINGTHEINDUSTRY

Expandinglandscapeofnicotine

consumption

CategoryVolumeGrowthIndex2018-2028

2018=100

200

150

100

50

0

201820202022202420262028

Combustionproducts——RRPs

Combustionproducts:Cigarettes,CigarsandCigarillos,

SmokingTobacco.

RRPs:SmokelessTobacco,E-VapourProducts,HeatedTobacco,

NicotinePouches

Consumersareincreasinglyadoptingalternative,lower-risknicotinedeliverymethods,withcombinedusageof

cigarettesandRRPs,althoughoverallshiftsinconsumptionpatternsremaingradual.

Giventhecurrenttrendsinother

consumerproducts,itispossibleforsocietytostartre-evaluatingtheroleofnicotinewhenitisseparatedfrom

tobaccoandcombustionproducts

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024edition

18

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

ChooseonlyONE:either

1or2

slide2

Nicotinepouchescontinue

explosivegrowth

intheUS

USCategoryBreakdown%ofvolume(stickequivalent)

100%

80%

60%

40%

Thelatestforecast

20%

0%

suggestsnicotinepouchesmaymakeupabout10%ofallstickequivalentvolumeby2028,highlightingtheirpotentialasakeyplayerinthefragmentednicotine

market.

202320242025202620272028

TobaccoFreeOralNicotine

HeatedTobaccoProducts

E-VapourProducts

SmokelessTobacco

Cigars,CigarillosandSmokingTobaccoCigarettes

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024editionSource:/

19

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

TOP5TRENDSSHAPINGTHEINDUSTRY

Regulatorypressuresand

advancements

EstimatedIllicitE-vapourPenetration:2024,SelectedMarkets%oftotalvolume

Israel

SaudiArabia

US

Malaysia

Indonesia

Italy

0%25%50%75%100%

Regulationplaysasignificantrolein

shapingthenicotineindustry,with

futurelegislativeactionslikelytofocusonproductscharacteristics,

sustainabilityandenvironmentalimpacts.

Bothindustryplayersandregulators

wanttoworktogethertolevelthe

playingfieldandensureconsumers

haveaccesstosafeandlegalproducts.

Source:EuromonitorInternationalbasedonpreliminaryestimates

20

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Regulatory

changescreatefuelfortheillicitmarket

Whilethereisa

measurableeffectonthereductionofconsumptionafterthesetypesof

measures,thereisalsotheunintendedconsequenceofmovingconsumersintotheillicitmarkek

UKCategoryVolume:2023-2028Millionstickequivalent

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

20232028mmClosedSystemCartridgesmmClosedSystemSingleUseCigarettes

Cigarettes(Illicit)

4,600

4,500

4,400

4,300

4,200

4,100

4,000

3,900

3,800

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024editionSource:,

21

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

TOP5TRENDSSHAPINGTHEINDUSTRY

Beyondnicotineandthenext

stimulants

NorthAmericaUserPopulation:2019-2028

‘000persons

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

HistoricForecast

2019202020212022202320242025202620272028

——Adult-UsePopulation——TotalNoofSmokers

Consumerdemandfordiversestimulantsbeyondnicotineandalcoholisrising,

leadingmajortobaccocompaniesto

exploreproductswithfunctional

ingredients,herbalcomponents,and

cannabinoids,markingasignificantshiftintheindustry.

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024edition

22

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

(Non)Functional

products

targeting

49%

ofnicotineconsumersplantoconsumeless

lookingtoreducenicotine

Asconsumersincreasinglyseekfunctionalityin

products,thereisa

growingopportunityforexoticherbsand

functionalingredients

consumers

ofconsumersreportmoderatetosevereimpactfromstress

72%

41%

ofconsumerschoose

herbalremediesto

reducestress

Source:

/

Source:EuromonitorVoiceoftheConsumer:NicotineSurvey,fieldedJanuarytoFebruary2024

23

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Futureoutlook

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

FUTUREOUTLOOK

Modestcigarettedeclinesinthefaceofbig

growthopportunitiesforRRP

IndexGrowthbyCategory(exChina),2023-2028Categoryvolumeindexsize(2023=100)

300

250

200

150

100

50

-

202320242025202620272028

CigarettesCigarsandCigarillos

E-VapourProductsHeatedTobaccoProducts

TobaccoFreeOralNicotine

25

Source:Passport,Nicotine2024editionSource:Passport,Nicotine2024edition

©2024EuromonitorInternational.Allrightsreserved.

Keytakeaways

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Key

t