中国在锂离子电池供应链中的地位研究-2025-04-新能源

JournalofPowerSourcesAdvances32(2025)100173

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China’sholdonthelithium-ionbatterysupplychain:Prospectsforcompetitivegrowthandsovereigncontrol

TimGreitemeier

a

,*

,AchimKampker

b

,c

,JensTübke

b

,d

,e

,SimonLux

a

,b

aUniversityofMünster,InstituteofBusinessAdministrationattheDepartmentofChemistryandPharmacy,LeonardoCampus1,48148,Münster,GermanybFraunhoferResearchInstitutionforBatteryCellProduction(FFB),Bergiusstrasse8,48165,Münster,Germany

cRWTHAachen,ProductionEngineeringofE-MobilityComponents(PEM),Bohr12,52072,Aachen,Germany

dKarlsruheInstituteofTechnology(KIT),InstituteofMechanicalProcessEngineeringandMechanics(MVM),Kaiserstraße12,76131,Karlsruhe,GermanyeFraunhoferInstituteforChemicalTechnologyICT,Joseph-von-FraunhoferStr.7,76327,Pfinztal,Germany

checkfor

updates

ARTICLEINFO

ABSTRACT

Keywords:

GlobalsupplychainLithium-ionbattery

CriticalrawmaterialsElectricvehicles

Batteryproductionforelectricvehicles(EVs)necessitatesasupplychaincapableofsupportingtheexploitationofavarietyofrawmaterials.Lithium,nickel,manganese,andcobaltareofparticularsignificanceforthedominantlithium-ionbattery(LIB)technology,primarilyrelyingonlithiumironphosphate(LFP)andlithiumnickelmanganesecobaltoxide(NMC)cathodes.Geographically,theglobalsupplyisheavilyreliantonChinawithcompetitionexpectedtointensify.Inlightofthis,thequestionsofhowglobalcompetitionmanifestsatthecompanylevelandwhetherregionscapturetheirshareofthesupplychainthroughdomesticcompaniesremainunanswered.Theseareaddressedbyanalyzingthecompaniesbehindeachsupplychainsectorandtherespectiverawmaterials.TheresultsdemonstratethatChina,Europe,andtheUnitedStatesofAmerica(USA)exhibitthemostpronouncedownershipacrossthesupplychain,acquiringthelargestforeignsharesintheminingsector.Overall,Chinaleadsinatotalofelevenoutofthe12investigatedsectors,withitspeakforLFPproductionatabove98%.Thispreeminence,coupledwiththesubstantialoutputofSouthKorea,Europe,andJapaninNMCproduction,thelatterrepresentsaviabletargetformitigatingsupplychainvulnerabilitiesandattaininggreatergrowthandsovereignty.

1.Introduction

TherapidupscalingofEVproductionrequiresasustainableandresilientglobalsupplychaincoveringtheexpansionofnewproductionsectors[

1

].Themostsignificantsector,distinctfromtheconventionalsupplychainofinternalcombustionengines,stemsfromtheproductionofLIBsandtheassociatedprocurementofrawmaterials

[2

].Theessentialrawmaterialscomprisegraphiteandsilicon,whicharetypi-callyutilisedfortheanode,andnickel,cobalt,manganeseaswellasiron,whichareemployedinthestate-of-the-artcathodematerialslithiumnickelmanganesecobaltoxide(LiNixMnyCo1-x-yO2)andlithiumironphosphate(LiFePO4)

[3–5

].Irrespectiveoftheselectionofcathodematerial,lithiuminherentlyoccupiesthepivotalroleintheproductionofLIBs[

5

].Despitetheglobaldistributionoftheserawmaterials,theirextractionandrefinementposeavarietyofsignificantsupplyrisks

[6

,

7

].Thehighcentralisationofrawmaterialsinregionscharacterisedbypotentialpoliticaluncertaintiesexertsadetrimentalinfluenceonthe

consistentsupplyandpricestability

[8

].Moreover,itisconceivablethatthematerialdemandmayexceedtheannualproductioncapacity,resultinginpotentialsupplyshortagesinthefuture

[9

].Untiltheadoptionofsubstitutematerialsandrecyclingtechnologiesattherequiredscaletorealisethetransitiontoacirculareconomy,thepri-marymaterialsandtheirrespectivesourcesreferencedwillmaintaintheircentralroleandsubstantialinfluenceontheEVmarket[

10

,11

].Thisinfluencedirectlytranslatestothesubsequentstepofcathodeactivematerial(CAM)synthesis,renderingitcriticalintermsofcapitalallocationwithinthesupplychain.Gutschetal.calculatedthatthisstepaloneaccountsforover45%ofthecosts,CO2equivalentsandcombinedenvironmentalimpactsoftheremainderofthevaluechain,includingrecycling

[12

].Besidesthematerialcosts,theLIB-cellproductionitselfaccountsfor17–28%oftheoverallcellcosts,dependingonbatterysizeandcelldesign(prismatic,cyclindricalandpouch)giventhemultitudeofcomplexprocesssteps,therebyplacingasubstantialcapitalburdenonthisstageofthevaluechain

[12–15

].Aconsiderableproportionofthis

*Correspondingauthor.

E-mailaddress:

simon.lux@uni-muenster.de

(T.Greitemeier).

/10.1016/j.powera.2025.100173

Received22January2025;Receivedinrevisedform6February2025;Accepted12February2025Availableonline17February2025

2666-2485/©2025TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.ThisisanopenaccessarticleundertheCCBY-NClicense(

/licenses/by-

nc/4.0/

).

T.Greitemeieretal.JournalofPowerSourcesAdvances32(2025)100173

2

equityisalreadycapitalisedbyChina,asitpossesses49%ofthein-tellectualpropertyfortheLIB-cell-production

[16

].OneoftheprimarydomainsinwhichLIBsareemployedistheEVmarket,whichisantici-patedtogeneraterevenueinexcessof800billionUSdollarsonaglobalscalebytheyear2025[

17

].Atpresent,themarketrevenueissharedbetweenChina,EuropeandtheUSAtothetuneof95%,reflectingthesubstantialimpactoftheseregionsonthewholeLIBsupplychain[

18

].

Nevertheless,thesignificantprofitpotentialisinvariablyaccompa-niedbyconsiderablerisks.Risksofthisnaturemaymanifestintheformofmonopolies,exportrestrictionsandsupplyshortages,whichhavethepotentialtoresultinbottleneckswithintheLIBsupplychain

[19

].Suchbottleneckshavebeentheobjectiveofseveralpreviousstudies,approachingtheidentificationandminimizationofcontemporaryproblemsthroughtheanalysisofmaterialflows

[20

],globalwarmingpotentials[

21

],includingpossibledecarbonization

[22

],andsupplyrisks

[23–25

].Anumberofotherstudieshavefocusedontheuseofrecycledmaterialsbydevelopingmodelsandstrategiestoaccomplishacirculareconomy[

26–28

].In2024,acomprehensiveanalysisregardingdisruptionvulnerabilitiesalongtheLIBsupplychainwasconductedbyChengetal.

[29

].Thedisruptionvulnerabilitieswerefirstassessedbyanindex,whichdescribestheinfluenceofthechoiceofcathodematerialonthesupplychain,andthenmitigatedbyanetworkflowoptimisationofdistinctscenarios

[29

].Inaddition,Chengetal.thoroughlyvisualisedthegeographicaldistributionoftheEVbatterysupplychain,withaparticularfocusonlithium,nickel,cobalt,andmanganese.Thisvisu-alisationdemonstratedthatChinalocalisedthemajorityofthesupplychain,dominatingfromrefiningtoEVproduction,withtheminingofeachrawmaterialresemblingtheonlyexceptions

[29

].Thevaluableinsightsconcerninggeographicallocalisationinthispublicationgiverisetoaquestionregardingthecapitalownershipsharesoftherespec-tiveregionsthroughcompaniesalongthesupplychain.Insightofthelate-breakingnewsofChinaconsideringtheimpositionofrestrictionsontheexportofproductiontechnologies

[30

],itisofparticularinteresttoinvestigatewhetherChina’sownershipsharesexceeditslocalproduc-tionshares,therebyfurtherincreasingsupplychainvulnerabilities.Theobjectiveofthisworkistoanalysetheregionalholdoncapitalandcompanyownership,inparticularthatofChina,fromacompanyperspectivewithinthesupplychain.Furthermore,thestudyidentifiespotentialtargetsfordecisionmakerstomitigatesupplyvulnerabilityandincreasesovereigntyfromChina.

2.Methods

ThissectiondescribestheworkflowtoobtainaccuratedatathatiscomparabletotheresultsobtainedinthestudybyChengetal.[

29

].Consistencyandvalidityoftheresultswiththereferencestudyisach-ievedbyaligningtheworkflowintermsofthesectionsofthesupplychainandthescopeoftheelementsandmaterials.Thesupplychainisdefinedastheprocessofmining,refining,CAM-,LIB-cell-,andEV-production,withtheinitialtwosectionsfocusingonlithium(Li),nickel(Ni),cobalt(Co),andmanganese(Mn).Thelattertwosectionsencompassallchemistriesemployedintheproductionprocess,whilsttheemphasisoftheCAMproductionissolelyonLFPandNMCchem-istries.Inaccordancewiththereferencedata,thefollowingcountriesandregionsareincludedintheanalysis:Australia,Chile,China,Dem-ocraticRepublicoftheCongo(DRC),Europe(EUR),Indonesia,Japan,Russia,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,theUSAand‘Other’.TheregiondesignatedasEURcoversallcountrieslocatedontheEuropeanconti-nentbesidesRussia,whilsttheregion‘Other’comprisesanycountrynotencompassedbythepreviouslyenumeratedregions.RussiaisevaluatedseparatelyfromEuropeinordertoalignwiththereferencedataandtodemonstrateitssubstantialnaturalresourcecapacities.

2.1.Datageneration

Asthereferencedataprovidesashareofproductionandthe

comparisonofabsolutenumbersisinsufficientduetoalackofavail-abilityandconsistency,thegathereddatainthisworkiscalculatedasashareofproductionaswell.Thegeographicaldistributionforminingintheyear2020wasobtainedusingtheU.S.GeologicalService’sMineralCommoditySurvey,whichisacomprehensivedatabaseofmineralde-positsandtheirlocations[

31

].ThereferencedataregardingtherefineryistakenfromSunetal.andcoverstheproductionoflithiumcarbo-nates/hydroxides,refinedcobalt,nickelchemicalsandelectrolyticmanganesedioxides

[25

].Basedontheregionsgiveninbothsources,thelargestminesandrefinerieswereidentified,therebyenablinganupdatedcalculationofthegeographicaldistributionbasedontheheadquartersofthecompaniesbytheannualoutputs.Theownershipdataissourcedfromvariouswebsitesandcompanyreports,allofwhicharereferencedinthesupplementarymaterials(TableS1).

First,theregionalproductionsharesinaspecificcountrybasedoneachmine/refineryindividually(RPScountry,mine/refinery,region)arecalculatedbymultiplyingtheshareofownershipofeachregiononthemine/re-finerywiththeproductionshareofthecorrespondingmine/refineryintheselectedcountry.Thelatteriscalculatedbydividingtheproductionoutputofonemineinacountry(Prod.mine/refinery,country)bythetotalpro-ductionoutputoftherespectivecountry(TotalProd.country).

•Shareofownershipmine/refinery,region(1)

Theresultsfortherespectivemines/refinerieswithinacountryarethenaggregatedtoderivetheregionalproductionshares(RPScountry)for

thatspecificcountry.

(2)

mine

Inthefollowing,theRPScountry,regionismultipliedwiththereferenceproductiondata(RPDcountry)anddividedby100toyieldtheupdatedregionalproductionoutputofeachcountry(UPcountry,region).

ThelaststepconsistsofaccumulatingtheUPcountry,regionwithrespecttoeachregiontocalculatetheupdatedproductionoftheregions(UPregion)basedontheownership.

UPregion=(4)

Theupdatedshareofproductionofeachregion(USPregion)isdeter-minedbydividingtheUPregionbythetotalglobalreferenceproductiondata(RPD).

USPregion=•100(4)

ThevaluesofUSPregionrangebetween0and100percentandarecalculatedforeachproducedelementandmaterialseparately.Thedataregardingtheannualoutputsofthemines/refinerieswasgatheredfromadiversearrayofnewsreports,publicstatements,andannualreportsoftherespectivecompanies,withthecorrespondingsourcegivenindetailinthesupplementarymaterials(TableS1).Ininstanceswherethecompanywasidentifiablebutnocurrentproductiondatawasavailable,thereferencevaluefortheentireregionwasappliedtothecompanyinquestion.Toillustratethispoint,theManagemGroupwasidentifiedasacompanyfortheBouAzzerCobaltMineinMorocco

[32

];however,nocurrentproductiondatawasavailable.AsthecompanyisheadquarteredinMorocco,thereferenceproductionoutputforMoroccoof2.3ktwasusedfortheupdatedresultsinthiscase.Inadditiontothedatarelevanttotherefining,alsothefindingsfromSunetal.concerningCAM-andLIB-productionwereusedasreference[

25

].TheinformationregardingtheglobalcompaniesinCAM-productionforbothLFPandNMC

T.Greitemeieretal.JournalofPowerSourcesAdvances32(2025)100173

3

chemistries,aswellastheirannualoutput,hasbeenderivedfromareportbytheYanoResearchInstitute

[33

].FortheLIB-production,thelatestdatafromEV-volumeswasusedandincludedthetoptenproducerswhichaccountfor97%ofthetotaloutput[

34

].Theshareofproductionisinbothcasescalculatedbyaggregatingtheannualproductionvolumeperregionanddividingitbythetotalannualproductionoutput.ThereferencedataconcerningthegeographicaldistributionofglobalEVproductionwerederivedfromareportpublishedbytheInternationalEnergyAgencyin2022

[35

].Incomparison,theupdatedproductionsharesofEVsarebasedontheannualsalesofeachEVin2023,asre-portedbyMarklines

[36

].Thecorrespondingregionsareassignedonthebasisoftheheadquarterlocationoftherespectiveoriginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs).Thesalesfiguresforeachregionarethendividedbythetotalsalesfor2023tocalculatethesalesshare.Comprehensivedatapertainingtotheindividualsectorsofthesupplychainareavailableinthesupplementarymaterial(TablesS2–S17).

3.Resultsanddiscussion

3.1.Regionalownershipshares

Thereferencedataconcerningthea)geographicaldistributionissubjectedtocomparisonwiththeresultsofthiswork,whichconsidertheLIBsupplychainfromtheb)ownershipdistribution

(Fig.1

).Uponthoroughexaminationofthesupplychaininitsentirety,itbecomesevidentthattheproportionofChineseoverallstakesincreasesevenfurtherwhentheissueofownershipisgivendueconsideration.

TheCAM-productionofLFPrepresentsthepointatwhichChinesecontrolisalmostcomplete,withaproductionshareof98.45%.Themajorcompaniesinthisfieldare,forinstance,HunanYunengandShenzhenDynanonic.Inaddition,Chinesecompaniespossessthelargestsharesintherefiningofeachelementaswell,rangingbetween59.50%and73.57%,withonlyminoralterationscomparedtothegeographicaldistribution.Additionalinformationpertainingtotheannualproductionoutputsoftheindividualcompaniescanbefoundinthesupplementarymaterial.

Interestingly,theactualownershipsharesonthesupplychainforthelattersteps,includingCAM-productionofNMC,LIB-andEV-productionareslightlybelowthegeographicalreferencedata,whilststillremainingabove45%.DespitetheabsenceofNMCproductionfacilitiesinEurope,companiessuchasBASFandUmicorecontributeapproximately20%of

theglobalsupply,therebyaugmentingtheinfluenceofEuropebyowningfactoriesorsharesincompaniesandjointventuresinAsia.ConsideringLIB-cell-production,SouthKoreaemergesastherunner-upwithregardstoChina,accumulatingownershipof26.88%oftheglobalproduction,primarilydrivenbyLGEnergySolution,SKonandSamsungSDIandtheirChinesefactories.WhiletheproportionofUScompaniesinLIB-productionislessthan3%,theywereabletosecure28.56%ofEV-production,representingtheirlargeshareintheworldwideautomotivemarket.InadditiontoTesla,which–besidesBYD-hasdominatedglobalsaleswithover2millionEVssoldin2023,theGMGroupandFordGrouphavealsosignificantlycontributedtotheimpactoftheUSA.

However,besidesLFP,themostsignificantdisparitybetweenpro-ductionsharesfromgeographicalandownershipperspectivesarisesintheminingofrawmaterials.Inthisareaofthesupplychain,Chinaexertsasignificantlyhigherdegreeofcontroloverproductionsharescomparedtotheactualproductionlocatedinthecountry.

TheminingofNickelandCobaltseemstobeofparticularinteresttoChinesecompanies,asChinesestakeholdersgovernabove30%oftheglobalproductionofeachelement,despitethefactthatlessthan5%arecurrentlyextractedwithinChina(

Table1

).ThisdiscrepancycanbeattributedtotheacquisitionofforeignminingrightsfromChinesecompanies,therebysecuringthelargestsharesintheextractionoflithium,nickel,andcobalt.ThisacquisitionstrategyisalsoemployedbyEuropeandtheUSA,withthelatterprimarilyinvestingcapitalinthecontroloflithiumthroughcompaniessuchasAlbemarleandLivent,owning26.8%oftheglobalproduction.Despitehavinglimitednaturalresourcesandalmostnostakesintheminingoflithium,Europehassucceededincontrollingasignificantshareoftheglobalproductionofnickel,cobalt,andmanganese,therebysecuringapositionamongthetopthreeproducersoftheserawmaterials.ThemajorshareholdingEuropeancompaniesincludeGlencore,whichisheadquarteredinSwitzerland,aswellastheFrenchcompanyEramet.Intermsofman-ganesemining,EuropeaswellasChinapossesscomparativelymodestshares,rankingthirdandfourthrespectively.Bycontrast,Australia,andSouthAfricaaccountforthemajorityofminingrights,witheachcountryholdingashareabove20%.

TheupdatedresultsdemonstratethateconomicallystrongregionssuchasChina,EuropeandtheUSAleveragetheircapitalpowertosignificantlyincreasetheirinfluenceacrossthesupplychain,especiallywithintheminingsector.China,inparticular,expandsitsinfluencebyholdingthelargestshareinelevenoutoftwelvesectorsfromacompany

Fig.1.a)Geographicaldistribution(revisualizedfromChengetal.)

[29

],andb)OwnershipdistributionoftheLIBsupplychain.

4

T.Greitemeieretal.JournalofPowerSourcesAdvances32(2025)100173

Table1

Referenceproductionshares(RPS),updatedproductionshares(USP),andtherespectivefactorfortheminingofeachrawmaterial.

Country

Lithium

Nickel

Cobalt

Manganese

x

RPS

USP

x

RPS

USP

x

RPS

USP

x

RPS

USP

Australia

48.07%

20.16%

0.42

6.73%

2.70%

0.40

3.96%

0.42%

0.11

17.89%

25.77%

1.44

Chile

26.03%

21.61%

0.83

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

China

16.10%

29.26%

1.82

4.78%

32.26%

6.75

1.55%

36.57%

23.59

7.2%

11.89%

1.65

DRC

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

68.89%

3.50%

0.05

0%

0%

1

EUR

0.42%

0.42%

1

0%

14.75%

n/a

0%

36.00%

n/a

4.96%

16.40%

3.31

Indonesia

0%

0%

1

30.71%

1.47%

0.05

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

Japan

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

0%

0.32%

n/a

0%

0%

1

Russia

0%

0%

1

11.27%

11.27%

1

6.33%

6.33%

1

0%

0%

1

SouthAfrica

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

34.93%

20.18%

0.58

SouthKorea

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

0%

0.27%

n/a

0%

0%

1

USA

0%

26.83%

n/a

0%

0%

1

0%

0%

1

0%

1.00%

n/a

Other

9.38%

1.72%

0.18

46.51%

37.55%

0.81

19.27%

16.45%

0.85

35.02%

24.76%

0.71

perspective(see

Fig.1

),comparedtoitsdominanceineightsegmentsfromageographicalperspective.

3.2.Flowofownershipshares

Astheminingsectorhasemergedastheareawiththegreatestdis-crepanciesbetweengeographicallocationandactualcompanyowner-ship,

Fig.2

depictswheretheregionssecuretheirrespectivesharesfor

eachelement.AnexaminationofthecurrentsituationpertainingtolithiumminingrevealsthatbothChinaandtheUSAhavesecuredsig-nificantinterestsinAustralianminingoperations,forinstance,theGreenbusheslithiumoperations[

37

].Moreover,theUScompanyAlbe-marleistheproprietoroftheSalardeAtacamamineinElLoa,whichaccountsforapproximatelyone-quarterofthetotaloutputlocatedinChile[

37

].

Withregardtonickelmining,approximately30%ofglobal

Fig.2.Sankeydiagramsillustratingtheglobalflowofproductionsharesbetweenthelocationandactualownershipfortheminingofa)Lithium,b)Nickel,c)Cobaltandd)Manganese.

5

T.Greitemeieretal.JournalofPowerSourcesAdvances32(2025)100173

productionislocatedinIndonesia,establishingitastheleadingregion.Outofitsownproductionshare,amere4.77%iscurrentlyownedbyIndonesiancompanies.Meanwhile,Chinahasadominantpresencethere,holdinganimpressive86.73%oftheIndonesianminingrights,thusrankingfirstintermsofownershipofglobalnickelproduction.IncontrasttoChina’sstrategicemphasisonIndonesiannickel,Europehasamorediversifiedsupplierbase,withBrazil,Canada,andNewCale-doniaaccountingforthebulkofproduction.MajorEuropeancompaniesowningtheseminesencompassGlencore,AngloAmericanandEramet.Morethanonethirdofthe‘Other’regionsshareoriginatesfromthePhilippines,rankingthirdinglobalnickelproductionwith13.30%,andiscontrolledbytheNickelAsiaCorporation.AsforRussia,allmajormineslocatedinthecountry,irrespectiveoftheextractedrawmaterial,areownedbyMMCNorilskNickeland,asaresult,areunderRussiancontrol.

Thein-depthanalysisofCobaltrevealedascenarioformininginDRCanalogoustoNickelmininginIndonesia.While68.89%oftheglobalproductionislocatedintheDRC,thelocalcompaniesitselfpossessonlyslightlyabove5%oftheminingfacilitiesinthecountry.ThemajorityofthestakesintheDRCareheldbyChinaandEurope,with47.15%and47.77%respectively.TheprimaryactorsresponsibleforthisshiftaretheCMOCGroupfromChinaaswellastheEurasianResourcesGroupandGlencorewiththeirheadquarterslocatedinEurope.Incaseoftheotherregions,thePhilippines,Cuba,andMoroccoappeartobethemostsig-nificantcontributors,accountingforacombinedtotalof45.30%oftheproductionintheseotherregions.

Consideringtheminingrightsofmanganese,AustraliaextendsitsimpactthroughthecompaniesSouth32andJupiterMinesbyacquiring51.12%oftheSouthAfricanmines,therebyascendingtothepreemi-nentposition.Despitegivingupmorethanhalfofitsminingrights,SouthAfricaremainsincontroloverthesecondlargestshareofglobalproductionwithouttheacquisitionofforeignmines.Asthethirdlargestglobalstakeholder,EuropeisresponsiblefortheoperationofminesprimarilylocatedinAustralia,GabonandtheUkrainewithAngloAmerican,ErametandtheEurasianResourcesGroupemergingasthemostsignificantstakeholdersrespectively.TheChinesecompanySouthManganeseInvestmentLtd.ownsthemajorityofmanganesemineslocatedinChinaandisfurtherinvolvedintheBemblmineinGabon.Gabonitselfistheregionthataccountsforthethirdlargestshareofminesof17.78%worldwide,ofwhich40.41%arecurrentlyownedbyentitiesheadquarteredinGabon,suchasNouvelleGabonMining.Consequently,itconstitutesthemajorityofthestakesofthe‘Other’nations,withGhana,IndiaandtheCted’Ivoirealsobeingsignificantproducers.Comprehensivenumericaldataanddetailedinformationregardingtherespectiveminingprojectscanbefoundinthesupple-mentarymaterial.

3.3.China’scumulativepowerinmining

Theprecedingexaminationofthegeographicalandownershipdis-tributionhassuccessfullyexposedChina’spivotalpositionwithinthevaluechain,particularlyinthedomainofmining.Inthecontextofpotentialtraderestrictions,itisimperativetoincorporatepoliticalcontrolintotheexistinganalysis.Thisextensionoftheanalysisen-compassesthehypothesisthat,inadditiontotheoversightofitsowncorporateentities,ChinacouldwieldauthorityoverforeignproductionfacilitiessituatedwithinChina’sborders.In

Fig.3

,China’sdomesticshares(RPS)aswellastheupdatedsharesofproduction(USP)onthetotalglobalminingoutput,bothillustratedin

Fig.1

aswell,aredepictedwiththeirrespectiveforeignsharesofproduction(FSP)ontheglobaloutputintherestoftheworldforeachrawmaterial.

GiventhetheoreticalassumptionthatChinawouldexercisefullcontroloverthemineslocatedwithinthecountry,thedomesticallylocatedsharescouldbeassignedentirelytoChina’sjurisdiction.Thiswouldresultinadecreaseinthefreelyavailableremainingglobalsupply,correspondingtothesizeoftheRPS.However,aspreviously

Fig.3.China’sdomesticproduction(RPS)andupdatedownershipproduction(USP)sharesonthetotalglobaloutput,alongsidetheshareofChina’sforeignproduction(FSP)ontheglobaloutput,outsideofChina,fortheminingofeachrawmaterial.

notedonthebasisoftheUSP,a