2025Q1财报专题：全球5万余家财报寻找供需两侧机会

目录第一部分第二部分短期维度：季报超预期策略中期需求侧：全球供应链重塑下的细分机会第三部分中期供给侧：双重周期下的困境反转第四部分长期维度：质量低波风格和商业模式短期维度：季报超预期策略数据来源：Wind。注：数据统计样本区间为2015年Q1-2024年Q1，样本中对各时点的次新股进行了剔除。图：2015年-2024年一季报披露后N个交易日不同分组个股收益表现数据来源：Wind。注：样本中对各时点的次新股进行了剔除。◥

我们基于季报披露后个股次日的股价反应定义超预期&低预期个股，具体定义如下：◥

超预期个股：1）发布后次日股价高开；2）发布后次日当日跑赢行业指数；◥

低预期个股：1）发布后次日股价低开；2）发布后次日当日跑输行业指数。图：超预期策略下，2017年-2024年一季报披露后的分组行情一览图：财报披露后5、10、15、20、30和60个交易日的各策略分组表现数据来源：Wind。注：样本中对各时点的次新股进行了剔除，数据统计样本区间为2019年-2024年。T+5一季报中报三季报年报T+20一季报中报三季报年报超预期个股低预期个股差值3.2%3.7%3.6%4.7%超预期个股低预期个股差值5.4%1.6%5.7%5.1%-4.5%-2.0%-2.2%-2.6%-2.9%-4.6%-0.2%-3.1%7.7%5.7%5.7%7.2%8.3%6.2%5.9%8.3%T+10一季报中报三季报年报T+30一季报中报三季报年报超预期个股低预期个股差值4.5%4.3%4.6%4.8%超预期个股低预期个股差值6.4%0.4%5.3%5.5%-3.6%-1.7%-1.1%-2.8%-2.1%-5.7%-0.3%-2.7%8.1%5.9%5.6%7.6%8.5%6.1%5.6%8.3%T+15一季报中报三季报年报T+60一季报中报三季报年报超预期个股低预期个股差值4.0%3.2%5.6%4.9%超预期个股低预期个股差值10.5%1.4%4.0%7.4%-3.8%-2.8%-0.1%-2.8%0.7%-4.8%-3.5%-0.9%7.8%6.0%5.7%7.7%9.8%6.3%7.5%8.3%2024Q1T+1T+5T+10T+15T+20T+30T+602021Q1T+1T+5T+10T+15T+20T+30T+60超预期个股低预期个股5.7%9.1%8.3%8.9%6.5%0.9%-6.2%超预期个股低预期个股2.2%2.8%4.3%4.6%6.3%7.2%7.0%-0.8%1.8%0.2%0.0%-2.4%-7.5%-15.0%-2.8%-4.1%-3.2%-3.1%-1.5%-0.7%-1.7%差值6.5%7.3%8.1%8.9%8.9%8.5%8.8%差值5.0%6.9%7.5%7.7%7.8%7.9%8.7%最大收益达峰率72.8%81.4%90.5%100%99.9%94.9%99.3%最大收益达峰率57.6%78.9%85.7%88.4%89.2%90.2%100%数据来源：Wind。注：样本中对各时点的次新股进行了剔除，数据统计样本区间为2019年-2024年。2023Q1T+1T+5T+10T+15T+20T+30T+602020Q1T+1T+5T+10T+15T+20T+30T+60超预期个股低预期个股4.2%5.4%5.5%6.0%6.1%6.4%7.7%超预期个股低预期个股4.5%4.9%5.7%3.9%6.7%7.8%20.7%-2.6%-3.1%-3.3%-2.7%-2.8%-3.0%-2.1%-3.3%-2.3%-2.2%-3.9%-2.3%-1.1%9.7%差值6.7%8.5%8.7%8.7%8.8%9.4%9.8%差值7.9%7.2%7.9%7.8%9.0%8.9%11.0%最大收益达峰率68.3%86.4%88.8%88.0%89.5%95.6%100%最大收益达峰率71.6%65.6%71.8%70.8%81.5%81.3%100%2022Q1T+1 T+5 T+10 T+15 T+20 T+30 T+602019Q1T+1 T+5 T+10 T+15 T+20 T+30 T+60超预期个股低预期个股5.0%9.7%12.3%

12.9%15.3%18.8%24.4%超预期个股低预期个股-0.6%-7.0%-5.2%-7.6% -7.3%-8.4%-7.4%-2.1%0.2%3.0%4.5%5.8%8.6%12.6%-6.0%-13.4%-12.2%-13.8%

-13.6%-14.4%-15.0%差值7.2%9.4%9.3%8.4%9.5%10.2%11.8%差值5.4%6.4%7.0%6.3%6.3%6.0%7.6%最大收益达峰率61.0%80.2%78.7%71.4%81.0%86.9%100%最大收益达峰率71.1%84.5%92.3%82.0%83.1%78.4%100%图：2019年-2024年一季报披露后5、10、15、20、30和60个交易日的各策略分组表现图：2025年一季报申万一级行业的超预期&低预期个股统计◥

截至2025年5月5日24点整，全体A股2025年一季报披露率约为99.7%，我们基于已披露样本筛选超预期个股。◥

基于上述，我们根据季报披露后个股的股价反应及市场预期更严格定义超预期&低预期个股，具体如下：◥

超预期个股：1）发布后次日股价高开；2）发布后次日当日跑赢行业指数；3）季报披露后3天，万得全年一致预期上调；◥

低预期个股：1）发布后次日股价低开；2）发布后次日当日跑输行业指数；3）季报披露后3天，万得全年一致预期下调。代码 名称 行业个股总数 已披露个股数 已披露占比 超预期个股数 超预期个股占比 低于预期个股数

低于预期个股占比84 82

97.6%

13

15.9%

8

9.8%33

100.0%

3

9.1%

7

21.2%103

100.0%

8

7.8%

12

11.7%42

100.0%

3

7.1%

10

23.8%6.3%

19

15.0%6.2%8886.1%8 6.2%9 6.9%127130131106100.0%99.2%100.0%100.0%65.7%47699.6%214.4%9 8.5%53

11.1%53.9%127140100.0%99.3%53.6%381100.0%133.4%163100.0%53.1%296100.0%93.0%137142100.0%100.0%442.9%2.8%359100.0%102.8%7380100.0%100.0%222.7%2.5%49299.4%122.4%45100.0%12.2%42499.8%92.1%4898.0%12.1%9999.0%22.0%586100.0%11165100.0%1.9%1.8%17

13.4%12 8.6%43

11.3%19

11.7%27 9.1%4 2.9%19

13.4%26 7.2%6 8.2%14

17.5%48 9.8%5 11.1%33 7.8%4 8.3%6 6.1%47 8.0%14 8.5%321.5%9.0%2.03%100.0%100.0%1.0%0.9%7.2%40.5%801790.SI

非银金融801980.SI

美容护理801110.SI

家用电器801780.SI 银行801120.SI

食品饮料801760.SI

传媒801770.SI

通信801130.SI

纺织服饰801080.SI 电子801170.SI

交通运输801050.SI

有色金属801730.SI

电力设备801140.SI

轻工制造801880.SI

汽车801970.SI

环保801740.SI

国防军工801750.SI 计算机801710.SI

建筑材料801210.SI

社会服务801150.SI

医药生物801040.SI 钢铁801030.SI

基础化工801960.SI

石油石化801200.SI

商贸零售801890.SI

机械设备801720.SI

建筑装饰801160.SI

公用事业801180.SI 房地产801010.SI

农林牧渔801950.SI

煤炭801230.SI

综合33103421271311311064781271413811632961371423597380495454254910058616513410211137203719100.0%95.0%11000.0%0.0%12281500.0%5403538999.7%1803.3%5169.6%全A数据来源：Wind。注：数据截至2025年5月5日24点整。图：2025年一季报申万一级行业的超预期&低预期个股占比一览数据来源：Wind。注：数据截至2025年5月5日24点整。图：超预期策略下，2025年一季报披露后的分组行情一览数据来源：Wind。注：数据截至2025年5月5日24点整。中期需求侧：全球供应链重塑下的细分机会图：海外营收占比新高，海外营收增速上行图：化工、军工、家电、轻工、纺服、TMT等的海外营收增速和占比均有提升2024H1

2024H2

环差2019H1-2024H2趋势图2024H1

2024H2环差 2019H1-2024H2趋势图煤炭石油石化3% 3% 0%6% 5% -2%-27% -9%-14% -6%18%9%基础化工17% 18% 2%-10% 4%14%8% 1%9% 4%15% 3%11% 8%6% 1%15% 5%-5%-3%-10%钢铁有色金属建筑材料建筑装饰7%12%5%7%8% 0%13% 8%交通运输11%12%1%17% 21%-5%4%电力设备17%16%-1%-5% -4%1%20%2%10% 13%5%1%12% 38%机械设备国防军工环保18%4%2%2%0%-6% 13%3%26%19%汽车17%19%1%24% 16%-7%35%2%16%2%11% 12%3% 18%家用电器轻工制造纺织服饰33%14%12%14%1%5% 11%1%15%7%7%16%0%0%21%11%8%1%2%10%11%8%-11%0%7%7%--20%2%2%-1%25%7%5%5%-2%8%1%3%12%6%6%9%8%2%21%15%社会服务美容护理商贸零售农林牧渔食品饮料医药生物银行非银金融房地产7%16%7%9%3%7%6%2%0%0%0%0%0%-2%6%0%-14%-14%38%2%10%14%2%31%10%2%5%16%22%28%电子计算机传媒通信36%12%8%4%5%1%15%24%5%16%6%9%公用事业3%2%0%-8%-19%-11%行业名称海外营收占比 海外营收增速数据来源：Wind图：收入端，外需型企业有所改善，优于内需型企业图：利润端，外需型企业仍明显优于内需型企业数据来源：Wind图：不同类型企业的营收增速图：不同类型企业的净利润增速数据来源：Wind图：美国、日本、欧洲、新兴市场的2024Q4财报披露相对完全，2025Q1披露率较低数据来源：FactSet，Wind。数据截止至2025年4月25日。图：全球营业收入增速（非金融）图：全球净利润增速（非金融）数据来源：FactSet。数据截止至2025年4月25日。图：全球资本开支增速（非金融）数据来源：FactSet，Wind。数据截止至2025年4月25日。图：全球库存增速（非金融）图：全球ROE-TTM（非金融）数据来源：FactSet，Wind。数据截止至2025年4月25日。图：全球毛利率-TTM（非金融）数据来源：国联民生证券研究所需求来自哪里？设备：资本开支商品：消费供应链重塑产能周期商品：消费炼化设备、运输基建：建材、钢材、工程机械等生产：车床、工业母机终端产品：手机、电脑、成衣原材料：集成电路、控制器等家电、家具、电池、光伏(转口)中东、美国新兴市场新兴市场美国美国、日韩、欧洲、新兴市场欧美、新兴市场船舶、新能源车美国、欧洲资本开支下的投资机会商品需求下的机会2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q4△变化(2024Q4-2024Q3)能源7.1%3.4%1.1%0.5%-0.5%-6.5%-14.3%-25.1%-28.3%-21.8%-10.9%8.4%19.2%23.6%25.6%24.3%25.0%26.2%21.3%17.7%11.6%5.1%5.9%4.0%-2%材料16.0%11.8%7.7%6.2%4.4%-0.8%-2.9%-4.6%-2.5%6.6%13.4%20.9%21.6%18.6%15.5%12.2%10.9%9.3%8.2%7.0%5.1%1.7%0.0%-3.4%-3%资本货物8.1%5.4%5.0%3.8%2.0%-1.9%-5.5%-6.9%-5.2%2.8%9.9%11.7%13.5%10.4%11.0%8.4%8.4%9.8%4.8%9.8%7.6%3.5%5.6%1.5%-4%商业和专业服务8.1%11.0%10.8%14.9%10.0%0.5%-4.5%-10.8%-10.5%-6.1%-4.0%3.0%4.4%4.6%9.2%8.8%8.9%10.3%6.5%5.0%3.2%-1.6%-1.5%-3.2%-2%运输5.6%3.7%2.9%-2.6%-4.9%-19.5%-27.8%-32.1%-36.4%-16.1%1.8%23.6%42.2%29.7%21.4%15.3%12.8%19.7%21.7%19.6%14.8%5.0%0.2%-3.1%-3%汽车与汽车零部件2.8%1.2%-1.8%1.1%-1.6%-8.1%-9.4%-13.1%-9.0%2.8%9.8%10.0%4.7%-2.9%-6.0%-0.3%4.2%10.7%15.7%17.6%16.7%12.4%10.3%7.1%-3%耐用消费品与服装7.5%-1.3%-2.8%-3.2%-1.6%-5.5%-7.7%-13.6%-12.4%-0.9%7.6%23.6%24.2%23.0%15.4%12.9%12.3%13.8%15.6%10.0%8.8%-2.7%-3.6%-4.0%0%消费者服务14.8%7.3%5.7%-8.6%-5.5%-11.4%-19.5%-22.8%-27.9%-18.2%-10.2%6.3%13.9%9.0%14.7%6.9%6.6%11.2%6.4%20.1%21.3%16.8%15.1%-1.2%-16%零售业7.3%4.3%4.7%7.5%9.5%10.9%11.2%23.0%27.3%41.0%47.0%37.7%34.6%22.8%14.8%6.0%0.8%-4.7%-9.3%-9.2%-8.0%0.5%17.6%27.6%10%食品与主要用品零售1.2%3.4%3.5%-1.5%-1.9%-9.5%-11.8%-7.1%-4.2%8.0%14.0%19.8%21.9%13.2%12.7%15.7%15.3%12.9%11.7%10.0%6.1%5.6%2.0%0.3%-2%食品、饮料与烟草5.6%0.9%2.5%4.9%4.4%6.0%8.1%4.9%7.5%11.8%6.4%8.6%5.1%1.0%1.9%-0.6%1.4%3.7%4.7%6.5%4.7%1.4%0.4%-5.3%-6%家庭与个人用品-5.2%-8.9%-8.8%-7.3%-5.0%-6.2%-7.1%-6.9%-7.6%2.3%7.1%9.8%8.5%1.9%-2.9%-7.2%-6.0%9.4%13.6%17.6%19.3%-9.2%-9.6%-10.6%-1%医疗保健设备与服务9.6%10.9%10.9%9.9%10.1%3.8%0.4%1.0%1.2%9.7%15.3%15.8%15.0%9.1%5.4%-2.1%-2.9%-4.5%-3.1%3.5%3.5%5.2%3.9%-0.1%-4%制药、生物科技与生命科学17.4%11.6%9.9%7.3%2.1%1.7%4.9%14.3%22.4%26.0%24.9%9.0%4.8%2.6%-1.7%1.9%6.2%7.1%10.5%14.5%4.3%1.0%1.9%-1.9%-4%软件与服务14.7%7.4%4.8%-1.2%3.4%5.9%9.4%15.2%15.4%22.3%23.7%28.1%23.7%16.4%12.8%5.6%6.0%5.0%7.0%12.5%20.7%29.3%41.2%69.1%28%技术硬件与设备-6.4%-13.1%-13.8%-12.1%-5.8%-0.5%3.5%4.8%8.7%15.1%18.8%20.8%16.6%8.7%4.3%1.8%1.9%2.8%-1.7%-5.0%-7.9%-11.2%-7.9%-4.8%3%半导体与半导体生产设备13.8%6.3%0.9%-3.1%-1.4%-1.1%1.1%3.3%10.2%20.1%28.9%43.7%40.5%40.6%35.5%24.4%20.4%9.8%1.1%-5.9%-11.5%-15.6%-9.5%6.2%16%电信服务-8.6%-1.0%-2.6%1.1%4.3%1.1%0.9%2.2%27.8%31.5%35.4%35.1%-11.0%-11.6%-14.6%-17.9%-6.4%-6.5%-9.9%-7.6%-5.6%-7.1%-0.5%-4.1%-4%媒体20.0%9.8%6.4%-2.4%0.1%-2.0%-5.7%-5.8%-6.7%-0.3%7.0%12.0%18.0%20.1%20.3%23.4%18.7%13.2%6.7%1.9%4.4%8.8%12.5%20.5%8%公用事业公用事业2.6%2.1%2.8%7.2%6.8%6.4%6.4%4.5%5.3%8.7%8.7%8.5%10.1%7.0%9.4%9.5%9.5%13.3%13.6%15.5%15.5%11.8%10.5%10.4%0%全球资本开支增速周期制造可选消费必选消费医药TMT数据来源：FactSet，Wind。数据截止至2025年4月25日。图：全球资本开支增速汽车链AI电力零售(亚马逊)资本开支增速中国美国欧洲日本新兴市场2023H12023H22024H12024H22023H12023H22024H12024H22023H12023H22024H12024H22023H12023H22024H12024H22023H12023H22024H12024H2能源材料资本品商业和专业服务运输汽车与汽车零部件耐用消费品与服装消费者服务零售业食品与主要用品零售食品、饮料与烟草家庭与个人用品医疗保健设备与服务制药、生物科技与生命科学软件与服务技术硬件与设备半导体与半导体生产设备电信服务媒体公用事业房地产4%8%-14%-8%45%19%17%20%30%18%8%24%10%7%1%17%14%4%0%27%7%-17%-14%38%17%21%23%7%10%14%0%-1%14%-3%-8%-18%18%11%7%10%8%10%-6%3%1%8%2%0%6%-2%-5%-16%-2%13%3%3%14%14%12%12%-5%5%0%1%-6%-3%20%12%-4%-17%12%8%5%-7%1%-17%8%5%7%41%18%2%0%8%5%-11%11%0%-12%-3%-1%-3%1%18%50%39%8%10%0%12%5% 5%15%29%-19%-5%14%29%31%21%20%32%-8%-13%-10%30%10%3%-11% -11%14%13%10%13%17%16%18%28%-7%-4%-17%-31%-14%4%1%-9%-17%-17%47%31%-6%22%38%21%14%-23%-17%15%22%11%-1%-4%15%10%11%-1%2%16%27%21%-8%16%13%20%15%7%17%17%-14%0%15%-5%-11%1%38%5%3%1%-15%-7%-4%17%-6%0%3%-14%-2%-18%21%12%3%2%-9%-27%2%-5%8%11%14%6%5%-6%-2%-24%8%12%9%18%22%-2%-1%-8%17%-12%-14%14%15%34%8%14%9%6%9%0%11%15%4% 4%-3% -2%12%-4%-5%31%-22%-1%6%7%11%-14%-8%-12%-23%-5%-9%9%-15%-3%0%-9%8%4%-23%-3%11%-5%-4%5%69%55%-10%-31%-9%9%17%10%14%-15%-19%-21%-19%10%6%14%32%19%-2%13%36%-32%-2%7%5%-15%-14%0%-3%9%18%39%93%-8%-10%15%32%24%-5%-10%-5%15%-12%-16%-12%1%7%-12%-19%-6%-5%10%40%4%-10%-8%7%5%-3%5%-11%-21%-4%2%-4%1%19%25%7%-3%20%14%-10%5%4%-4%6%25%5%-17%22%27%0%21%-3%2%-15% -14%11%0%-12%2%-10%-4%-15%5%-58%-3%-15%3%-14%-5%-7%-17%2%-15%-3%11%-19%-2%-1%2%0%17%12%26%6%3%-37%-41%-26%3%65%17%12%4%-12%-22%19%13%19%15%6% 6%8%23%18%12%-26%-28%12%0%4%23%29%-9%-3%-1%-6%-4%-1%-23% -23%-27%-10%-4%7%0%8%-7%1%-2%来源：FactSet。数据截止至2025年4月25日。数据图：全球国家/地区GICS行业的资本开支增速数据来源：FactSet，Wind数据和逻辑均相关

数据和逻辑

均相关动力煤4%60%26%-13%-56%-14%-10%-25%-44%55%44%84%-焦煤61%81%7%41%3%46%28%44%19%53%72%72%炼油化工18%70%19%8%-51%7%3%-18%-21%69%47%其他石化6%41%14%-6%-52%-3%3%-46%-32%62%19%油田服务-21%46%3%-3%-71%0%-2%-34%-6%70%其他塑料制品-14%-4%-17%-50%-61%-32%-4%-76%-42%37%粘胶-29%3%-35%-38%-68%-17%5%-56%-1%氮肥10%56%2%0%-59%5%12%-31%-22%氯碱2%54%-21%20%-36%3%-4%26%农药12%13%-16%-21%-47%8%33%-56%钛白粉4%0%-33%23%6%33%19%磷肥及磷化工-36%8%38%-9%-58%-40%-18%锦纶-20%-29%23%22%12%-35%煤化工4%20%31%-4%-30%-23%涤纶9%42%11%-10%-59%膜材料40%44%41%49%7%其他化学制品-2%-37%29%25%复合肥-19%24%5%-37%氨纶30%18%0%炭黑-48%-6%-26%民爆制品6%15%纺织化学制品18%39%聚氨酯31%食品及饲料添加剂-23%其他橡胶制品其他化学纤维改性塑奢侈品-新

新兴市场

新兴市场

设备-欧洲

国防-欧洲

重型运输设

备-欧洲

海外 -海外兴市场 备-欧洲服装配饰与

家居建材-

休闲产品-

电气元件和

航空航天与

建筑机械和

重型电气设

综合油气-

化肥与农药

金属玻璃和塑料容器-鞋类-海外海外家居用品-海外电力-海外三级公用相关系数GICS四级行业的资本开支增速A股336个申万三级行业营业收入增速动力煤-34%37%52%-18%-61%-30%-41%-14%-13%45%40%63%-30%-29%45%焦煤45%76%11%12%-11%45%16%10%21%48%53%55%-6%-43%45%炼油化工30%72%24%16%-48%21%23%-2%-22%59%54%75%-28%-46%83%其他石化41%64%37%59%31%31%3%54%17%29%54%71%22%-18%58%油田服务-40%5%32%-48%-78%-55%-33%-59%-72%23%-8%34%-69%-49%35%其他塑料制品55%81%42%39%7%45%12%45%22%45%74%77%4%-35%50%粘胶5%2%28%52%32%-8%-7%36%-6%-17%8%29%28%-9%27%氮肥43%49%11%57%46%35%15%80%36%7%65%37%50%17%37%氯碱20%35%-33%12%-3%10%26%60%43%52%72%29%13%6%22%农药38%53%-12%70%32%53%26%65%72%47%58%48%60%25%43%钛白粉27%-24%-40%26%60%25%12%53%38%-24%-4%-51%48%61%-30%磷肥及磷化工-35%-18%-10%-51%-30%-25%0%-35%-27%-19%-9%-16%-28%-22%-31%锦纶-4%-12%10%49%39%-19%-29%25%14%1%-17%23%28%-6%18%煤化工-13%13%53%-19%-33%-36%-37%-56%-69%1%-27%40%-57%-77%38%涤纶27%78%36%27%-36%37%15%-7%-7%49%47%79%-8%-43%74%膜材料58%68%41%56%30%50%25%65%11%8%72%55%28%-10%50%其他化学制品49%38%26%62%60%39%15%88%37%-6%63%31%50%15%19%复合肥-65%-48%14%-43%-51%-67%-50%-76%-46%-10%-64%-13%-37%-21%-2%氨纶-24%8%64%-27%-21%-59%-57%-33%-59%1%-14%39%-56%-68%32%炭黑6%28%60%36%6%-16%-40%20%-16%11%21%65%-4%-47%39%民爆制品52%30%4%-21%4%1%1%1%-18%19%16%14%-46%-68%11%纺织化学制品3%36%20%-45%-80%-16%-4%-44%-38%47%25%36%-65%-58%40%聚氨酯-1%29%4%-33%-47%3%20%-25%-39%-1%27%15%-35%-48%13%食品及饲料添加剂-22%-5%47%-22%4%-54%-59%-24%-52%-16%-28%19%-41%-56%14%其他橡胶制品-29%-7%28%-37%-52%-48%-40%-78%-49%22%-47%22%-59%-61%27%其他化学纤维-16%37%13%-12%-69%-8%-7%-61%-17%64%-3%61%-45%-58%51%改性塑料-9%-25%-19%-18%30%9%-10%4%29%-34%-18%-49%28%42%-54%特钢Ⅲ-12%11%51%-22%1%-33%-42%-30%-32%-6%-18%26%-41%-63%9%冶钢辅料-17%14%42%53%-5%10%-10%10%-8%-17%10%35%42%18%42%板材28%73%33%

35%

-17%

39%

10%42%36%56%82%76%14%-16%49%奢侈品-新

新兴市场

新兴市场

设备-欧洲

国防-欧洲

重型运输设

备-欧洲

海外 -海外兴市场 备-欧洲服装配饰与

家居建材-

休闲产品-

电气元件和

航空航天与

建筑机械和

重型电气设

综合油气-

化肥与农药

金属玻璃和塑料容器-鞋类-海外海外家居用品-海外电力-海外

业-海外三级公用事

信息技术-海外相关系数GICS四级行业的资本开支增速A股336个申万三级行业海外营业收入增速2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q4△变化(2024Q4-2024Q3)-4%0%-1%-6%-8%-9%-9%-7%6%13%22%23%14%10%9%13%17%23%26%22%11%5%11%-17%-4%-24%-31%-25%-10%1%18%17%15%15%22%19%11%10%-7%-6%-5%-2%-3%-2%6%-5%5%10%12%-2%-3%-23%-23%-15%-10%2%-1%-4%-7%0%5%9%27%29%28%28%24%25%22%13%1%6%8%7%9%5%5%-11%-3%-14%-6%-11%-12%2%12%23%29%20%8%1%-4%1%6%6%11%11%12%15%-9%-2%-6%2%2%-10%-13%-7%-12%14%-13%-41%-35%-64%-20%4%4%61%9%17%14%10%0%-1%18%11%6%-7%-12%-12%-14%-9%-5%15%12%13%14%17%12%3%0%2%2%-7%-4%-10%-16%-19%-16%-23%-24%-13%-6%28%20%37%13%12%-1%-1%2%8%2%5%7%16%8%6%-5%-11%-3%-5%-4%-6%-12%-9%-14%-3%21%17%31%19%23%46%24%11%13%13%17%22%5%5%7%14%电气元件和设备工业企业集团航空航天与国防建筑机械和重型运输设备农业和农用机械工业机械与用品及部件建筑产品建筑与工程重型电气设备18%20%13%32%20%10%-1%-14%-10%7%20%47%41%20%9%-2%-5%1%0%8%17%2%7%17%26%20%-3%3%-1%3%2%7%-5%1%19%11%22%20%-10%-13%-21%-17%2%13%23%23%11%1%-5%-10%-6%-4%-11%-11%-14%-17%-11%6%-2%-5%2%-18%-18%-29%-20%31%18%41%25%-39%-38%-57%-39%-8%-21%16%16%14%24%3%-26%-28-9%2%-14%-14%-5%-5%-4%-4%-11%-11%13%15%25%25%3%2%-3%-2%27%29%92%91%72%71%19%-52-24%-32%-27%-25%-27%-25%-23%-24%-12%12%24%89%151%118%104%24%-13%-13%-8%-1%12%13%6%22%82%-25%-25%-52%-52%-22%-22%37%37%13%13%-17%-17%2%2%21%21%41%41%54%53%6%%%16%-14%2%13%13%7%8%-9%-9%-33%-33%18%18%13%12%20%21%-16%-16%-20%-21%21%5%20%6%2%-14%20%41%46%34%16%-13%-57%-35%-57%-34%-6%-4%-5%-9%0%5%42%60%49%3%2%-4%-2%-18%-20%-15%-8%-11%-31%-48%-29%-53%-17%-35%69%68%61%50%36%35%35%36%28%21%16%0%-4%空运与物流铁路运输地面客运海运地面货物运输公路与铁路机场服务客运航空公司海运港口与服务-4%10%46%24%44%54%11%18%-23%-62%-37%-21%-24%-3%9%28%2%11%-11%2%26%38%44%41%17%8%-15%-3%-20%13%3%4%2%12%14%5%1%-9%-8%0%-1%-1%-2%0%5%9%16%12%12%7%-6%8%-4%-11%-18%-20%-22%-17%-10%5%4%7%13%12%13%13%14%12%13%18%18%17%14%12%-2%-13%汽车制造商汽车零部件与设备轮胎和橡胶9%0%-7%-6%-3%-7%-10%-12%-27%-29%-11%-24%-28%-27%-21%27%27%50%43%10%12%8%12%16%15%10%9%4%-6%30%16%12%2%0%-12%-14%-27%-28%-11%-7%36%44%47%44%40%39%60%59%38%38%-6%-7%-12%-5%23%-1%-14%-14%-40%-34%-21%-16%40%49%28%33%43%45%26%14%-6%-22%-20%26%4%1%4%5%-1%-1%2%19%30%24%32%35%19%44%30%16%21%-3%-6%-6%-11%-17%-32%-15%-20%-9%-1%10%14%14%13%11%1%-5%-20%-21%-9%0%22%28%25%17%1%-1%-5%-22%-26%-3%0%-10%11%18%-11%44%51%43%27%0%-8%-11%-28%-25%-23%-12%12%15%42%39%28%29%-1%0%-13%-16%-12%-15%-22%-23%-18%17%10%6%-6%-6%-17%-17%-16%-4%30%58%58%47%16%-8%-12%-18%-6%-3%3%8%7%-1%5%-8%27%22%-4%-3%-12%-16%-21%-29%-25%-15%38%133%192%181%44%30%3%5%15%-8%-15%-22%-38%-16%25%87%46%-7%-8%-74%-78%-28%44%74%-15%-4%37%91%44%35%32%15%-8%-8%-12%-23%52%服装配饰与奢侈品鞋类电子消费品家用电器家居建材休闲产品家居用品家庭用品和特色产品纺织品10%7%9%-13%-53%-39%-40%-52%-34%-33%-48%-38%51%67%91%67%-9%-15%15%3%-12%-12%-25%-30%-37%-35%-13%74%22%4%-9%-9%-13%-13%-11%-11%-23%-23%-8%-8%28%27%25%25%12%12%8%8%5%5%5%5%13%9%14%12%16%9%6%2%2%1%4%7%7%8%8%9%10%6%3%-3%-3%-2%0%7%5%4%-1%10%-1%-2%13%13%-11%-11%11%11%48%55%52%50%13%10%2%3%5%1%5%5%-1%5%-15%-19%-2%-17%-5%34%28%50%40%10%9%13%21%5%8%8%2%7%4%6%10%23%25%23%19%-3%-22%4%9%6%4%1%-3%3%23%28%25%21%-11%-12%-9%-14%1%27%37%30%25%22%18%-4%个人护理产品医疗保健设备保健用品医疗保健技术制药生物技术183%198%172%230%-14%-27%-20%-41%-5%36%12%-9%-7%-37%-35%-6%7%9%14%39%28%13%-37%-40%-20%-12%8%17%20%26%11%10%10%4%3%-6%-5%-5%4%11%3%6%-14%-12%-12%-19%-15%-18%-15%8%12%-3%-20%-28%-35%-33%-26%-12%21%7%3%1%14%30%32%5%-1%-4%-15%-13%-18%-8%3%4%3%-26%-31%-41%-36%-8%-1%31%37%38%42%47%21%14%1%4%-20%-18%-16%-17%-2%0%-5%10%-13%-8%-9%4%-5%1%1%14%36%34%22%3%-4%-6%-3%-1%-2%-5%-6%-7%-6%16%15%22%系统软件应用软件互联网服务与基础设施

技术硬件

存储与外围设备通信设备-3%3%7%8%13%8%0%-13%-27%-21%-12%1%6%9%2%-6%4%6%12%18%-2%-9%-21%-27%-33%-26%7%32%6%7%6%-14%-9%-16%-18%-5%-3%8%14%16%19%20%19%22%21%17%4%2%1%-1%59%29%94%110%99%63%16%-28%-43%-40%-23%3%13%1%-18%-24%-34%-34%-21%-16%12%12%18%-14%-20%-53%-32%3%-2%-8%-14%-15%-20%-16%-5%-1%19%45%50%80%78%70%73%32%26%15%18%2%-13%-18%53%83%23%19%10%6%2%2%4%9%22%32%35%46%43%38%48%60%58%51%33%12%-7%-14%-5%-7%电子设备与仪器电子元件半导体半导体材料与设备综合电信服务-15%0%31%0%2%0%-5%-4%12%38%48%44%21%-11%-14%-11%-11%-4%-6%-14%-16%-12%-16%-7%-3%5%10%10%12%18%11%7%9%4%16%24%25%24%15%2%1%-5%0%9%27%17%15%6%16%29%28%29%22%-5%-13%-25%-23%2%16%45%43%30%16%-11%-11%-10%10%-1%35%22%31%0%-3%-8%-9%-5%电力可再生能源独立电力生产商和能源贸易商-23%-22%-12%-3%2%3%11%13%17%28%12%2%-14%-36%-38%-34%-27%0%8%10%4%-2%-5%23%28%欧洲细分行业资本开支增速消费品医疗保健TMT公用事业资本品交通运输汽车图：欧洲细分行业资本开支增速电力AI资本品数据来源：FactSet。数据截止至2025年4月25日。2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q4△变化(2024Q4-2024Q3)39%25%11%14%10%10%2%9%23%9%44%95%77%74%34%-9%-5%9%39%35%-4%-15%14%7%-2%13%5%3%-15%-8%-3%20%31%30%26%23%30%21%22%48%20%14%23%15%4%3%-11%-1%104%-11%5%42%44%22%9%8%-19%-42%-29%-18%19%23%29%13%-2%4%3%19%46%41%29%-20%20%11%12%5%-11%-23%-40%-38%-1%6%35%20%11%8%18%35%35%55%41%54%26%49%28%-2%-30%13%21%-14%-74%-74%-99%-32%-83%-53%-23%-51%2001%180%208%256%7%216%131%126%94%1%31%78%91%144%104%60%-45%6%23%19%12%18%-4%-6%4%17%22%23%35%30%11%-3%-16%-20%-17%-14%-7%-2%13%17%-1%-12%-20%-25%-21%-16%-3%-11%-18%20%32%38%62%35%24%22%22%27%22%3%-17%-17%15%0%17%13%-2%-1%-19%-23%-28%-31%-29%-18%-6%12%5%-8%-13%-8%-17%2%14%30%37%9%2%-9%-15%-20%25%45%电气元件和设备工业企业集团航空航天与国防建筑机械和重型运输设备农业和农用机械工业机械与用品及部件建筑产品建筑与工程重型电气设备-48%-66%-88%614%781%1261%3926%17%45%76%102%33%-38%-51%-65%-78%-67%-54%-49%185%124%92%38%10%-43%-39%-31%-17%14%16%37%31%48%51%11%10%-19%-1%10%43%88%55%52%5%-13%-16%-29%0%28%28%28%17%-5%-12%-14%-12%-25%-16%-4%-3%26%15%-7%-7%11%20%31%55%24%20%21%14%-18%-33%-40%-19%4%62%71%-4%-59%-72%-59%-63%-41%-49%18%190%277%215%-6%1%-3%-14%-28%29%-8%-11%-25%-33%-18%-4%15%38%57%64%46%13%-22%-3%0%0%28%11%47%16%34%14%-4%-7%9%0%1045%887%32%-23%-80%-98%-119%-71%-46%938%149%35%98%78%80%59%35%33%27%34%47%51%33%16%-9%-17%0%-3%17%-13%21%15%-33%-1%-61%-47%-7%5%75%10%105%106%48%-23%-20%-11%1%57%57%10%7%7%0%-21%-23%8%26%40%23%-8%-19%-15%-8%0%7%38%34%50%47%37%31%13%7%-2%1%20%12%40%39%27%5%-56%-66%-61%-19%-55%-16%84%128%114%97%159%143%-40%-35%-56%-45%空运与物流铁路运输地面客运海运地面货物运输公路与铁路机场服务客运航空公司海运港口与服务32%26%-4%-1%-73%-60%-18%-22%-24%103%73%13%8%29%107%67%54%102%64%61%8%-17%-21%-25%-13%15%18%6%2%6%10%4%-9%-16%-15%-4%11%14%4%21%13%58%47%82%104%79%88%61%-4%18%11%11%-1%-14%-19%-29%-24%-32%-31%-19%0%33%41%38%42%19%21%31%28%18%4%-11%-21%-23%汽车制造商汽车零部件与设备轮胎和橡胶-29%-28%-16%0%-9%-18%-30%-26%-15%26%82%115%48%124%82%31%3%-10%-26%-27%-28%-26%-17%-6%-5%0%3%11%3%-64%-2%0%50%8%7%-5%-4%-9%-29%-22%-26%-15%7%27%15%11%6%5%6%3%2%7%18%30%服装配饰与奢侈品鞋类17%36%24%10%-2%-34%-34%-26%-16%7%57%24%56%35%80%119%97%75%44%4%13%-34%-39%-39%-37%19%12%56%-26%-44%-44%-37%-23%-8%4%2%7%4%27%35%45%39%20%15%5%5%4%5%14%22%电子消费品家用电器3%-16%-21%-35%-32%-43%-52%2%-1%3%82%160%18%21%4%-2%41%40%48%22%26%21%1%36%7%11%-16%-26%40%14%2%1%0%0%-4%-33%-26%12%21%101%98%93%120%35%33%-2%-43%-39%-42%-23%-2%23%-63%-57%-69%-63%-45%-20%44%8%1%-38%-35%5%83%120%28%-18%-87%-59%-1%249%52%57%60%家居建材休闲产品家居用品-46%-43%-42%-21%-22%-26%-19%-9%20%37%25%18%12%7%6%-7%-6%-17%-6%15%14%0%3%-36%25%3%-39%-17%-32%-2