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June2025
SummaryandOilMarketContext
Demand
OPECprojectsglobaloildemandtoriseby1.3mb/dy/yinboth2025and2026.Stronger-than-expectedeconomicactivityinthefirsthalfof2025,drivenbyrobustperformanceinIndia,China,andBrazil,hasliftedtheglobalGDPgrowthforecastto2.9%fortheyear.Easingtradetensions,particularlythroughagreementsinvolvingtheUSandkeypartners,areexpectedtoreduceuncertaintyandsupportoilconsumptioninthesecondhalfof2025.
TheEIAprojectsgloballiquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby0.8mb/din2025and1.1mb/din2026y/y,withgrowthconcentratedinnon-OECDcountries.Non-OECDdemandisexpectedtoriseby0.9mb/din2025and1.0mb/din2026y/y,whileOECDconsumptionremainsbroadlystableovertheforecastperiod.
TheIEAforecastsglobaloildemandtorisebyapproximately0.7mb/din2025y/y,slightlybelowlastmonth’sestimateduetoweaker-than-expectedsecond-quarterdeliveriesintheUnitedStatesandChina.In2026,demandgrowthisalsoexpectedtoremainaround0.7mb/dy/y.
Acleardivergencepersistsacrossagencies,withforecastgapsreachingupto0.6mb/dforboth2025and2026.
Supply
OPECprojectsnon-DoCliquidssupplyandDoCNGLstogrowbyapproximately0.9mb/dyear-on-yearin2025,reachinganaverageof62.4mb/din2025,ledbytheUnitedStates,Brazil,Canada,andArgentina.The2026forecastreflectsaslightdownwardrevision,withsupplyexpectedtoincreaseby0.9mb/dtoanaverageof63.3mb/d.Angolaisanticipatedtorecordthemostdecline,whilethesamefourcountriesremainthekeydriversofproductiongrowth.
TheEIAmaintainsits2025growthforecastfornon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsatapproximately1.3mb/d,reachingatotalof77.3mb/d—unchangedfromlastmonth’sassessment.For2026,theEIAhasreviseditsgrowthforecastdownwardto0.7mb/d,bringingthetotalto78.1mb/d.Italsoprojectsnon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLstogrowby1.3mb/din2025and0.7mb/din2026,y/y.
TheIEAforecastsnon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLstoincreaseby1.5mb/din2025and1.1mb/din2026,year-on-year.Fornon-DoCsupplyandDoCNGLs,theIEAprojectsgrowthofapproximately1.3mb/din2025and1.0mb/din2026.
2
Summaryof2024-2026Balances
•OPECmaintainsitsprojectionofa1.3mb/dyear-on-yearincreaseinglobaloildemandforboth2025and2026.
•TheEIAprojectsyear-on-yeargrowthinnon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLsof1.3mb/din2025and0.7mb/dy/yin2026.
•TheIEAforecastsglobaldemandgrowthof0.7mb/dy/y/inboth2025and2026.
lowestforecast
highestforecast
2024-2026BalanceSummary
2024
2025
2026
2024
2024Y/Y
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
2025
2025Y/Y
1Q26
2Q26
3Q26
4Q26
2026
2026Y/Y
IEA
103.0
0.9
102.4
103.6
104.8
104.3
103.8
0.7
103.1
104.3
105.5
105.1
104.5
0.7
GlobalDemand
OPEC
103.8
1.5
104.4
104.2
105.5
106.4
105.1
1.3
105.7
105.4
107.0
107.5
106.4
1.3
EIA
102.7
0.9
102.1
103.1
104.4
104.4
103.5
0.8
103.3
104.6
105.3
105.1
104.6
1.1
IEA
45.7
0.0
45.1
45.5
46.0
45.6
45.6
-0.1
44.8
45.1
45.9
45.5
45.3
-0.2
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.7
0.0
45.3
45.5
46.3
46.1
45.8
0.2
45.5
45.5
46.5
46.2
45.9
0.1
EIA
45.7
0.0
45.3
45.0
46.2
45.9
45.6
-0.1
45.4
45.3
46.0
45.9
45.6
0.0
IEA
57.4
0.9
57.3
58.1
58.7
58.7
58.2
0.8
58.2
59.2
59.6
59.6
59.2
1.0
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
58.2
1.5
59.1
58.7
59.2
60.2
59.3
1.1
60.2
59.9
60.5
61.4
60.5
1.2
EIA
57.1
0.9
56.9
58.1
58.2
58.5
57.9
0.9
58.0
59.2
59.2
59.4
59.0
1.0
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
75.8
0.9
76.2
77.1
77.6
78.2
77.3
1.5
77.9
78.4
78.4
78.5
78.3
1.1
OPECNGLs
EIA
76.1
0.7
76.4
77.2
77.7
78.0
77.3
1.3
77.5
77.9
78.2
78.5
78.1
0.7
IEA
61.4
1.5
61.7
62.6
63.1
63.6
62.7
1.3
63.2
63.8
63.9
64.1
63.7
1.0
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
OPEC
61.5
1.4
62.4
62.4
62.2
62.6
62.4
0.9
63.0
62.9
63.2
63.9
63.3
0.9
EIA
61.9
1.5
62.3
63.1
63.5
63.7
63.2
1.3
63.3
63.7
64.0
64.3
63.8
0.7
CallonOPEC
IEA
27.2
-0.1
26.2
26.5
27.1
26.1
26.5
-0.7
25.1
25.8
27.1
26.6
26.2
-0.3
EIA
26.7
0.1
25.8
25.9
26.6
26.4
26.2
-0.5
25.8
26.6
27.1
26.6
26.5
0.3
IEA
41.6
-0.6
40.7
41.0
41.7
40.7
41.1
-0.6
39.9
40.5
41.6
41.0
40.8
-0.3
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
42.4
0.1
42.1
41.8
43.4
43.7
42.7
0.4
42.7
42.5
43.8
43.6
43.2
0.4
EIA
40.9
-0.6
39.8
40.1
40.9
40.7
40.4
-0.5
40.1
40.9
41.3
40.8
40.8
0.4
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
3
2025OutlookComparison
4
Summaryof2025BalancesandRevisions
•OPECmaintainsastrongeroutlookforglobaloildemand,projectingyear-on-yeargrowthof1.3mb/din2025,comparedto0.7mb/dfromtheIEAand0.8mb/dfromtheEIA.
•BoththeIEAandEIAprojectrobustsupplygrowthfromnon-OPECsupplyandOPECNGLs,withincreasesof1.3-1.5mb/dyear-on-yearin2025.
2025BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
2025
2025Y/Y
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
2025
2025Y/Y
IEA
102.4
103.6
104.8
104.3
103.8
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
GlobalDemand
OPEC
104.4
104.2
105.5
106.4
105.1
1.3
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
EIA
102.1
103.1
104.4
104.4
103.5
0.8
-1.0
-0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
IEA
45.1
45.5
46.0
45.6
45.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.3
45.5
46.3
46.1
45.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
EIA
45.3
45.0
46.2
45.9
45.6
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
IEA
57.3
58.1
58.7
58.7
58.2
0.8
0.0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
59.1
58.7
59.2
60.2
59.3
1.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
EIA
56.9
58.1
58.2
58.5
57.9
0.9
-0.7
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
76.2
77.1
77.6
78.2
77.3
1.5
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
OPECNGLs
EIA
76.4
77.2
77.7
78.0
77.3
1.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.0
IEA
61.7
62.6
63.1
63.6
62.7
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
OPEC
62.4
62.4
62.2
62.6
62.4
0.9
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
62.3
63.1
63.5
63.7
63.2
1.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
CallonOPEC
IEA
26.2
26.5
27.1
26.1
26.5
-0.7
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
EIA
25.8
25.9
26.6
26.4
26.2
-0.5
-1.2
-0.5
0.3
0.4
-0.2
-0.2
IEA
40.7
41.0
41.7
40.7
41.1
-0.6
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
42.1
41.8
43.4
43.7
42.7
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
EIA
39.8
40.1
40.9
40.7
40.4
-0.5
-1.2
-0.3
0.5
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
5
Evolutionof2025AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
•OPECmaintainsthemostoptimisticoutlookfor2026oildemandgrowth,despiteanarrowingrangeamongagencies.
•TheEIArevisedits2025globaloildemandgrowthforecastdownwardby~0.2mb/d,bringingtheestimateto0.8mb/dy/y.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
IEAOPECEIA
0.0
May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.5
1.0
IEA
OPEC
EIA
0.5
0.0
-0.5
May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
IEAOPECEIA
0.2
0.0
May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
6
Oildemandgrowthdrivenbynon-OECDregions,withwideinter-agencygapsatthegloballevel
2025DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.4
IEA
OPEC
EIA
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
Rangein2025DemandGrowthForecasts
GlobalTotalNon-OECD TotalOECDOtherNon-OECDOECDAsia
ChinaOECDAmericasRussia
India
AfricaMiddleEast
OECDEurope
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
7
Evolutionof2025AnnualSupplyGrowthForecasts
•OPEChasmaintainedits2025non-DoCsupplygrowthforecastat0.8mb/dyear-on-year.
•TheIEAforecastsUSsupplygrowthat0.5mb/d,nearlydoubletheEIA’sestimate.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
IEAOPECEIA
0.2
0.0
May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25ForecastVintage
Non-DoCSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
OPEC
IEA
EIA
0.2
0.0
May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
IEAOPECEIA
0.2
0.0
May-24Aug-24Nov-24Feb-25May-25ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMRNote:BeginninginMay2024,OPECstoppedpublishingsupplyforecastsfornon-OPECmembersoftheDeclaration
ofCooperation(DoCorcommonlyknownasOPEC+)
8
USsupplygrowthestimatesvarynotablyacrossagencies
Rangein2025SupplyGrowthForecasts
2025SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
TotalNon-DoC
US
DoCNGLs
Brazil
MiddleEast
Canada
China
Africa
Norway
0.5
1.4IEAOPECEIA
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
-0.2
S.Am.ex.Brazil
millionbarrelsperday
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
9
TheaveragecallonDoCcrudefor2025differsbynearly2.5mb/dbetweenOPECandtheEIA
2025CallonDoCCrudeandRecentDoCProductionLevels
millionbarrelsperday
45.0
44.0
43.0
42.0
41.0
40.0
39.0
38.0
1Q252Q253Q254Q252025Avg
IEAOPECEIA
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
10
2026OutlookComparison
11
Summaryof2026BalancesandRevisions
•OPECforecastsglobaloildemandat106.4mb/din2026,withyear-on-yeargrowthof1.3mb/d.
•TheIEAprojectsa0.2mb/dcontractioninOECDdemand,whileOPECandEIAshowflattomodestgrowth.
2026BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q26
2Q26
3Q26
4Q26
2026
2026Y/Y
1Q26
2Q26
3Q26
4Q26
2026
2026Y/Y
IEA
103.1
104.3
105.5
105.1
104.5
0.7
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
GlobalDemand
OPEC
105.7
105.4
107.0
107.5
106.4
1.3
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
EIA
103.3
104.6
105.3
105.1
104.6
1.1
-0.8
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
IEA
44.8
45.1
45.9
45.5
45.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.5
45.5
46.5
46.2
45.9
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
EIA
45.4
45.3
46.0
45.8
45.6
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.1
IEA
58.2
59.2
59.6
59.6
59.2
1.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
60.2
59.9
60.5
61.4
60.5
1.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
EIA
58.0
59.2
59.2
59.4
59.0
1.0
-0.7
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
77.9
78.4
78.4
78.5
78.3
1.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
OPECNGLs
EIA
77.5
77.9
78.2
78.5
78.1
0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.5
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
IEA
63.2
63.8
63.9
64.1
63.7
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
OPEC
63.0
62.9
63.2
63.9
63.3
0.9
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
EIA
63.3
63.7
64.0
64.3
63.8
0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
CallonOPEC
IEA
25.1
25.8
27.1
26.6
26.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
EIA
25.8
26.6
27.1
26.6
26.5
0.3
-0.4
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.6
IEA
39.9
40.5
41.6
41.0
40.8
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
42.7
42.5
43.8
43.6
43.2
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
·-0.5
EIA
40.1
40.9
41.3
40.8
40.8
0.4
-0.4
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.5
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains.**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges.
12
Evolutionof2026AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
•Globaldemandgrowthforecastsstabilize,withOPECmaintainingthehighestoutlook.
•TheEIArevisedits2026projectionsupwardby~0.1mb/d,whiletheIEAandOPECshowedstableforecastswithnosignificantchanges.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2026Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
IEAOPECEIA
0.0
Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25
ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2026Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
IEA
OPEC
EIA
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2026Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
IEAOPECEIA
0.0
Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR.*IEAbeganpublishingitsshort-termforecastsfor2026startinginApril.
13
Evolutionof2026AnnualSupplyGrowthForecasts
•TheEIAreviseddownitssupplygrowthforecastssignificantly.
•Thethreeagenciesarenowshowinggreaterconvergencearoundnon-DoCsupplygrowth.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2026Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
IEAOPECEIA
0.0
Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25
ForecastVintage
Non-DoCSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2026Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
IEAOPECEIA
0.0
Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25
ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2026Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
IEAOPECEIA
-0.2
Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR*IEAbeganpublishingitsshort-termforecastsfor2026startinginApril.
14
Appendix
15
IEFReleaseScheduleofMonthlyComparativeAnalysisandIEA,OPECandEIAReportsin2025
IEF
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Thursday,16January
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