中国汽车制造商主要品牌订单与比亚迪库存更新-2025-08-企业研究

CIt

Viewpoint|CitiResearch

04Aug202502:13:58ET|10pages

ChinaAutoManufacturers

JeffChungAC

+852-2501-2787

jeff.m.chung@

KyleWu

+852-2501-8483kyle.wu@

KeyBrandsOrders&BYDInventoryUpdate

CITI'STAKE

WehostedanindustryexpertcallwithindependentautojournalistMr.Sun

Shaojun孙少军today,withkeytakeawaysasbelow(seeFigure1fororder

summary).PerMr.Sun,Julysectorordersturnedouttobeweakdueto

customers'wait-and-seeattitudeon:(i)replacementsubsidyphase-out

and(ii)narrowedpricediscount.Mr.SunanticipatesAugorderstoseeslight

MoMrecovery(Augstillacarsaleslowseason),followedbysignificantorder

MoMgrowthinSepdrivenbytheChengduAutoShow(29thAug-7thSep)

andincreasingpricediscount.

LiAuto-Junordersof38k,July(1-27th)ordersat31k,July4thweek(21-27th)orders7k+units.Mr.Sunindicatedthenon-refundableorderratioofLii8vsOnvoL90at

around35k,versusOnvoL90's40k,accordingtoMr.Sun.

around1:3,withlowerordercorateofi8.TherefundableordersofLii8is

Nio(excl.Onvo&Firefly)-Junordersat15k,July(1-27th)ordersat12k,July4thweek(21-27th)orders2.5-2.8k,Aug1stweek(28thJuly-3rdAug)ordersat3k.Mr.SunattributedAug1stweekWoWordergrowthtorisingfoottrafficfromL90.

Xpeng-Junordersat48-49k,July(1-27th)ordersat50k,July4thweek(21-27th)

orders8k+.TheweeklyorderintakeofG7remainsatasteadylevelof2kunits.

HuaweiHarmony-Junorder47-48k,July(1-27th)ordersat35k,July4thweek(21-27th)ordersat8.5k+.PerMr.Sun,weeklyordersofMaextro(尊界)remainsat700

units,thatofAITO(问界)at6-7kunits(3kfromM8+2kfromM9)beforethelaunchofnewM7,andthatofStelato(享界)at500-600units.Mr.SunexpectsmonthlyproductioncapacityofMaextrorampingupto2k+unitsin4Q25E,exceedingthatofMercedesMaybach+Sclass.

Zeekr-Junordersat16k,July(1-27th)ordersat12k,July4thweek(21-27th)orders

comparablemodeltobetheAITOM8.

3.8k.Mr.Sunindicatedthe9Xattractedlotsofcustomerattention.withthemost

BYD-Junordersat360-380k,July(1-27th)ordersat270-280k,July4thweek(21-27th)orders70k.PerMr.Sun,BYDhasbeenseeingorderrecoverysincethe3rdweekofJuly,asdealersstartedtoincreasepricediscounts.Mr.SunindicatesoverallBYDinventoryleveldowntobelow2monthsatpresent.

Denza-Junordersat12-13k,July(1-27th)ordersat9-10k,July4thweek(21-27th)

orders2k.Orderstructureis70%fromD9,20%fromN9and10%fromZ9.

GACBEV-Junorder15k,July(1-27th)order12k,July4thweek(21-27th)order3k.

Xiaomi-Junordersat290-300k,July(1-27th)ordersat45-50k,July4thweek(21-27th)orders10k,Aug1stweek(28thJuly-3rdAug)ordersat12k.

Leapmotor-Junordersat43k,July(1-27th)ordersat43k,July4thweek(21-27th)orders15k.Mr.SunexpectsLeapmotor'sweeklyproductioncapacitytorampupto10kunitsfromlateAugust.(Continuedon2ndpage)

SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations.

CitiResearchisadivisionofCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.(the"Firm"),whichdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestment

decision.Certainproducts(notinconsistentwiththeauthor'spublishedresearch)areavailableonlyonCiti'sportals.

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QuestionsandAnswers

Q:What'sthecomparablemodelsofOnvoL90?

A:PerMr.Sun,40-50%ofL90customerswouldcomparetheL90toLiAuto'si8,30%toAITOM7andM8,theresttoGWMBlueMountain(especiallyinnorthernregions)andothermodels.

ForLiAuto'si8,theentryvariant(Pro)makesup～5%oforderswhiletheUltra

variant(Rmb369.8k)makesup80%.Themuchhighertransactionpriceofthei8woulddiscouragepotentialcustomersofL90.ForL90,theentryvariant(Pro)alsomakesup~5%oforders,whileMaxandUltravariantssplittheremaining95%.TheBaaStake-rateofL90is~70%,whichmakesthetransactionpriceofL90even

lower.

AccordingtoMr.Sun,theL90issosuccessfulthatithasevenboostedtheorderintakeoftheES6andL60.Niohasprepared5-7kL90vehiclesinadvancebeforethecarlaunch,whichwouldmakethedeliveriesmuchsmoother.TheL90has

limitedimpactonLeapmotorandBYD,eveniftheBaaSvariantpricingcanbelowerthanRmb200k,accordingtoMr.Sun.

Q:How'stheimpactofthecrashtestincidenttoLi'si8?

A:AccordingtoMr.Sun,thecrashtestincidentswoulddiscouragesome

customersofthei8,especiallynewcustomers.Themajorcustomersofthei8areuserswhohavebeenwaitingfortheLiBEVSUVmodelsforalongtime,Tesla

Model3andYusers,existingcustomersofLiAuto(suchasLiONE).UnliketheLii8,Mr.Sunindicates40%ofL90customersarepurelynewcustomers,someofwhichareICEusers.

Q:WouldLii6competewithL6?

A:PerMr.Sun,i6doesn'tsharethesamecustomergroupoftheL6.Thekeyforthei6iswhetherthiscarmodelcouldbeacceptedbycustomers,includingexterior

designs,productfeatures,etc.

Q:ProductioncapacityofL90in4Q25E?

A:Mr.SunestimatesthecombinedmonthlycapacityofL60+L90wouldbearound18kunitsinAug/Sepand20kunitsin4Q25E.

Q:Orderstatusofi8andL90?

A:PerMr.Sun,therefundableordersofthei8isaround35kandthatoftheL90iscloseto40k.Theorderconversionrateofthei8ismuchlowerthantheL90,whichmakesthenon-refundableorderratiooftheLii8vsOnvoL90ataround1:3.

Q:OrderstatusofXpengG7?

A:PerMr.Sun,theweeklyorderintakeoftheG7remainsatasteadylevelof2kunits.Mr.SunindicatedthecarmodelsthathadpreviouslywantedtochallengeXiaomi'sYU7haveallfailed,givenXiaomihasstrongcustomerloyaltywith

attractiveexteriorcardesign.

Q:ViewsoncurrentBYDinventorylevel?

A:AccordingtoMr.Sun,BYDwastryingtoclearinventoryinJun/July,withcurrentinventorylevelalreadydowntobelow2months.BYD'sdealersarepolarized,asthe

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strongoneshavereturnedtonormalinventory,buttheweakeronesarestillunderpressure.

Q:What'sthecomparablemodelsoftheLiL6?

A:PerMr.Sun,thecomparablemodelsoftheL6includeGWM'sBlueMountain(especiallyinNorthernregions),AITOandNio.TheweeklyordersofLiAutohasremainedatasteadylevelof7-8kunitsrecently.

Q:SalesoutlookoftheBEVsegment?

A:Mr.SunanticipatesBEVsalesgrowthratewouldbehigherthanPHEVandEREV,asmostBEVsEVmileageandcompetitivepricingcanalreadymeet

customers'needs.

Figure1.OrderSummaryfromMr.SunShaojun

LiAuto38k31k

7k+na

Nio(excl.Onvo&Firefly)15k12k

2.5-2.8k3k

Xpeng…48-49k50k

8k+na

HuaweiHarmony47-48k35k

8.5kna

Zeekr…16k12k

3.8kna

BYD(mass-market)…360-380k270-280k

70kna

Denza12-13k9-10k

2kna

GACBEV15k12k

3kna

Xiaomi290-300k45-50k

10k12k

Leapmotor43k43k

⑥2025CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup'swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,Mr.SunShaojun

15kna

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AppendixA-1

ANALYSTCERTIFICATION

Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated

by“AC”intheauthorblockor(ii)listedinboldalongsidecontentwhichisattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleAC

analystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolely

withrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentifiedinthepricechartsor

ratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereport

forwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.anditsaffiliates;and(2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyor

indirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES

Analysts'compensationisdeterminedbyCitiResearchmanagementandCitigroup'sseniormanagementandisbaseduponactivitiesandservicesintendedtobenefittheinvestorclientsofCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.anditsaffiliates(the“Firm”).Compensationisnotlinkedtospecifictransactionsorrecommendations.LikeallFirmemployees,analystsreceive

compensationthatisimpactedbyoverallFirmprofitabilitywhichincludesinvestmentbanking,salesandtrading,and

principaltradingrevenues.Onefactorinequityresearchanalystcompensationisarrangingcorporateaccesseventsbetweeninstitutionalclientsandthemanagementteamsofcoveredcompanies.Typically,companymanagementismorelikelyto

participatewhentheanalysthasapositiveviewofthecompany.

ForfinancialinstrumentsrecommendedintheProductinwhichtheFirmisnotamarketmaker,theFirmisaliquidityproviderinsuchfinancialinstruments(andanyunderlyinginstruments)andmayactasprincipalinconnectionwithtransactionsin

suchinstruments.TheFirmisaregularissueroftradedfinancialinstrumentslinkedtosecuritiesthatmayhavebeen

recommendedintheProduct.TheFirmregularlytradesinthesecuritiesoftheissuer(s)discussedintheProduct.TheFirmmayengageinsecuritiestransactionsinamannerinconsistentwiththeProductand,withrespecttosecuritiescoveredbythe

Product,willbuyorsellfromcustomersonaprincipalbasis.

Forimportantdisclosures(includingcopiesofhistoricaldisclosures)regardingthecompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisCitiResearchproduct("theProduct"),pleasecontactCitiResearch,388GreenwichStreet,6thFloor,NewYork,NY,10013,

UnlessstatedotherwiseneithertheResearchAnalystnoranymemberoftheirteamhasviewedthematerialoperationsoftheCompaniesforwhichaninvestmentviewhasbeenprovidedwithinthepast12months.

Attention:Legal/Compliance[E6WYB6412478].Inaddition,thesameimportantdisclosures,withtheexceptionofthe

ValuationandRiskassessmentsandhistoricaldisclosures,arecontainedontheFirm'sdisclosurewebsiteat

/cvr/eppublic/citiresearchdisclosures.ValuationandRiskassessmentscanbefoundinthe

textofthemostrecentresearchnote/reportregardingthesubjectcompany.PursuanttotheMarketAbuseRegulationa

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/cv2)oryourstandarddistributionportal.Historicaldisclosures(foruptothepastthreeyears)

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CitiResearchEquityRatingsDistribution

12MonthRatingCatalystWatch

Datacurrentasof01Jul2025BuyHoldSellBuyHoldSell

CitiResearchGlobalFundamentalCoverage(Neutral=Hold)58%32%9%36%47%17%

%ofcompaniesineachratingcategorythatareinvestmentbankingclients

36%39%25%39%34%35%

GuidetoCitiResearchFundamentalResearchInvestmentRatings:

CitiResearchstockrecommendationsincludeaninvestmentratingandanoptionalriskratingtohighlighthighriskstocks.

Riskratingtakesintoaccountbothpricevolatilityandfundamentalcriteria.StockswilleitherhavenoriskratingoraHighriskratingassigned.

InvestmentRatings:CitiResearchinvestmentratingsareBuy,NeutralandSell.Ourratingsareafunctionofanalyst

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thedividendyieldforastockwithinthenext12months.Thetargetpriceisbasedona12monthtimehorizon.TheInvestmentratingdefinitionsare:Buy(1)ETRof15%ormoreor25%ormoreforHighriskstocks;andSell(3)fornegativeETR.AnycoveredstocknotassignedaBuyoraSellisaNeutral(2).ForstocksratedNeutral(2),ifananalystbelievesthatthereareinsufficient

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ofCitiResearchmanagementnottoassignatargetpriceand,thus,notderiveanETR.CitiResearchmaysuspenditsratingandtargetpriceandassign“RatingSuspended”statusforregulatoryand/orinternalpolicyreasons.CitiResearchmayalsosuspenditsratingandtargetpriceandassign"UnderReview"statusforotherexceptionalcircumstances(e.g.lackof

informationcriticaltotheanalyst'sthesis,tradingsuspension)affectingthecompanyand/ortradinginthecompany's

securities.Inbothsuchsituations,theratingandtargetpricewillshowas“—“and“-“respectivelyintheratinghistorypricechart.Priorto11April2022CitiResearchassigned“UnderReview”statustobothsituationsandpriorto11Nov2020onlyinexceptionalcircumstances.Assoonaspracticallypossible,theanalystwillpublishanotere-establishingaratingand

investmentthesis.Investmentratingsaredeterminedbytherangesdescribedaboveatthetimeofinitiationofcoverage,a

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Yourdecisiontobuyorsellasecurityshouldbebaseduponyourpersonalinvestmentobjectivesandshouldbemadeonlyafterevaluatingthestock'sexpectedperformanceandrisk.

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CatalystWatchandSTVUpside/Downsidecalls:CitiResearchmayalsoincludeaCatalystWatchorSTVUpsideorDownsidecalltoindicatetheanalystexpectsthesharepricetorise(fall)inabsolutetermsoveraspecifiedperiodof30or90daysin

reactiontooneormorespecificnear-termcatalystsoreventsimpactingthecompanyorthemarket.ACatalystWatchwillbepublishedwhenAnalystconfidenceishighthatanimpacttosharepricewilloccur;itwillbeaSTVwhenconfidencelevelis

moderate.ACatalystWatchorSTVUpside/Downsidecallwillautomaticallyexpireattheendofthespecified30/90day

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expectation.ForpurposesofFINRAratings-distribution-disclosurerules,aCatalystWatch/STVUpsidecallcorrespondstoabuyrecommendationandaCatalystWatch/STVDownsidecallcorrespondstoasellrecommendation.AnystocknotassignedtoaCatalystWatchUpside,CatalystWatchDownside,STVUpside,orSTVDownsidecallisconsideredCatalystWatch/STVNoView.ForpurposesofFINRAratingsdistribution-disclosurerules,wecorrespondCatalystWatch/STVNoViewtoHoldinourratingsdistributiontableforourCatalystWatch/STVUpside/Downsideratingsystem.However,wereiteratethatwedonotconsiderNoViewtobearecommendation.ForallCatalystWatch/STVUpside/Downsidecalls,riskexiststhatthe

catalyst(s)andassociatedshare-pricemovementwillnotmaterializeasexpected.

RESEARCHANALYSTAFFILIATIONS/NON-USRESEARCHANALYSTDISCLOSURES

Thelegalentitiesemployingtheauthorsofthisreportarelistedbelow(andtheirregulatorsarelistedfurtherherein).Non-USresearchanalystswhohavepreparedthisreport(i.e.,allresearchanalystslistedbelowotherthanthoseidentifiedasemployedbyCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.)arenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.Suchresearchanalystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberorganization(butareemployedbyanaffiliateofthememberorganization)andthereforemaynotbesubjecttotheFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

CitigroupGlobalMarketsAsiaLimitedJeffChung:KyleWu

OTHERDISCLOSURES

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TheproportionofallCitiResearchresearchrecommendationsthatweretheequivalentto"Buy","Hold","Sell"attheendofeachquarterovertheprior12months(withthe%ofthesethathadreceivedinvestmentfirmservicesfromCitiintheprior12monthsshowninbrackets)isasfollows:Q22025Buy33%%(63%),Hold44%(51%),Sell23%(49%),RV0.4%(86%);Q12025Buy33%(63%),Hold44%(51%),Sell23%(49%),RV0.5%(87%);Q42024Buy32%(64%),Hold44%(52%),Sell23%(44%),RV0.4%

(92%);Q32024Buy33%(61%),Hold44%(52%),Sell23%(49%),RVO.4%(80%).Forthepurposesofdisclosing

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meansapositivedirectionaltradeidea;"Sell"meansanegativedirectionaltradeidea;and"RelativeValue"meansanytradeideawhichdoesnothaveacleardirectiontotheinvestmentstrategy.

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