报告-旅游业未来四种情景

IncollaborationwithKearney

FourScenarios

fortheFutureof

TravelandTourism

WJRLD

ECCNMIC

FORUM

WHITEPAPERJULY2025

Images:GettyImages,Unsplash

Contents

3

4

5

5

8

8

17

18

20

Foreword

Executivesummary

1UsingscenariostoshapethefutureofT&T

1.1Fourvariablesdrivingfuturescenarios

2ScenariosforthefutureofT&T

2.1Majorscenariosidentified

3ThewayforwardContributors

Endnotes

Disclaimer

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WorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.

Thefindings,interpretationsand

conclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedand

endorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,

Partnersorotherstakeholders.

©2025WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformation

storageandretrievalsystem.

2FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism

July2025

MauricioZuazua

PartnerandRegionalChairMiddleEastandAfrica,

Kearney

FranciscoBetti

Head,GlobalIndustriesTeam;MemberoftheExecutiveCommittee,WorldEconomicForum

JeffMerritt

Head,CentreforUrban

Transformation;MemberoftheExecutiveCommittee,WorldEconomicForum

FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism

Foreword

Thetravelandtourismindustryhasstagedoneofthemostdramaticrecoveriesinmoderneconomichistory,defyingpredictions.

Afterlosingmorethan$4trillionfiveyearsago

duringtheCOVID-19pandemic,theindustrys

remarkableresiliencehasledtoarebound,perhapsunderscoringthatforesightismoreimportantthanevertoproactivelymanagechangeinaworld

definedbycomplexity.Considerthis:Japansurgedtoarecord36.9millioninternationalvisitorsin

2024,surpassingpre-pandemiclevelsbymorethan15%andcementingitspositionasaglobaltourismleader;andVeniceintroduceda€5day-tripperfeetocontrolanoverwhelmingflowof

visitors.Aroundtheglobe,hoteloccupancyratesinmajordestinationsnowexceed2019levels.

Meanwhile,strategicpartnershipsbetweennationsarereshapingtravelcorridors,withnewbilateral

agreementsstreamliningaccesswhileairlinesforgedeeperalliancestorebuildglobalconnectivity.

Thesesignsoftheindustrysstrengthanddurabilityarentisolatedincidents.Theyreearlysignalsofaprofoundtransformationreshapinghow,whereandwhywetravel.

Whatliesahead?

Thispaperoutlinespossiblefuturestohelp

investors,operatorsandpolicy-makersmake

senseoffourforcesthatarerewritingtherulesoftravelandtourismshiftinggeopolitics,climateurgency,technologicaldisruptionandevolving

valuesandbebetterpreparedtonavigatethisdynamicchange.

By2030,theseforceswillconverge,potentiallycreatingfourpossiblefuturescenarios:

Athousandislandsworld.Fragmentationkillstrust.Travelwithers.

Harmonioushorizons.Stabilitybreeds

exploration.Overtourismthreatensparadise.

Greenascent.Environmentalconsciousnesstransformstravel.Equitygapswiden.

Techturbulence.AIpersonalizeseverything.

Humansadaptorgetleftbehind.

Thefutureisntinevitable.Butitsarrivingfast.

Fromairlineboardroomstovillageguesthouses,everyonefacesthesamequestion:Howdo

youthrivewhenthefundamentalsofmobility,

sustainabilityandeconomicexchangearebeingrewritteninrealtime?

Theanswerwilldeterminewhethertravelandtourismbecomeaglobalforceforgoodorsomethingelseentirely.

2030islessthanfiveyearsaway.Thetransformationstartsnow.

Caption:BiałowieżaForest,Poland

FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism3

4FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism

Caption:ParkGüell,Barcelona

Executivesummary

Thispaperfocusesonthedevelopmentoffuturescenariosfortravelandtourismtoguidecommunitymembersinatimeofvolatilityanduncertainty.

As2030approaches,thetravelandtourism(T&T)sectorstandsonthethresholdofatransformativeera,astheecosystemisnavigatingacomplex

interplayoftechnologicaladvances,newconsumerbehaviourandglobalsocioeconomicshifts.The

futureofT&Tisinherentlyuncertain,yetitisalso

filledwithpromise.Thisdynamiclandscapeisgivingrisetoamultitudeofpotentialfuturescenariosthatwillshapetheindustry’strajectory.

Fromgeopoliticalinstability,economic

fragmentationandtechnologicalinnovationsto

changingconsumerpreferences,thescenarios

presentedinthispaperwillelucidatethe

complexitiesoftheindustry’sfuture.Understandingthesescenariosiscrucialforbusinesses,policy-

makers,travellersandhostcommunitiesalike,

astheyseektonavigatetheopportunitiesand

challengesthatlieahead.Thecomingyearswillbe

markedbysignificantchanges,andexploringthesefuturescenarioswillprovidevaluableinsightsintohowtheindustrymightevolve.

Inthiscontext,exploringthefutureoftraveland

tourismbecomesacriticalexercise.Itmakes

itpossibletoimaginedifferentpotentialfutures

andconsiderhowtheymightunfold.Examining

thesescenariosallowsadeeperunderstanding

ofthefactorsthatwillinfluencetheindustry’s

developmentandidentifykeyareasforinnovationandgrowth.Thisexplorationwillprovidea

frameworkfordiscussingthestrategicimplicationsofthesescenariosandhowtheymightaffect

economies,businesses,communitiesand

travellers.Ultimately,thismakesitpossibleto

navigatetheindustry’scomplexfutureandchartapathforwardthatisinformedbyacomprehensiveunderstandingofthepotentialthatliesahead.

FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism5

1

Usingscenariosto

shapethefutureofT&T

Thekeystepinformulatingfuture

scenariosistoidentifythemostcritical

variablesatplay,showingthegreatest

sensitivitytochangewithintheecosystem.

1.1

Fourvariablesdrivingfuturescenarios

TheglobalT&Tsectorandindustrytrajectoryhingesontheinterplayofstructuralvariablesthatdefineitsoperational,economicandsocioecologicalcontext.Thesevariablesrangingfromgeopoliticalstabilitytotechnologicalinnovationserveasfoundationalpillarsforscenarioforecasting.DrawingoninsightsfromtheWorldEconomicForums

Travel&Tourism

DevelopmentIndex(TTDI)2024

(aWorldEconomicForumproprietaryindexandbenchmarkingtool

aimingtomeasuretheenablingfactorsandpoliciesforsustainableandresilientgrowthinthetravel

andtourismsector,reflectingitsbroadereconomicandsocialcontributionstoagivencountry)and

GlobalRisksReport2025

,thissectionidentifiesandanalysesfourcriticalvariablesshapingthesectorsfuture,linkingthemtotheTTDI2024sdiagnostic

pillars1andglobalmegatrends.2

Geopoliticalcooperationvs.fragmentation

Thisvariableconsidersthedegreetowhichinternationalcooperationorconflictdefinescross-borderrelations,tradepoliciesandsecurityframeworks:

Safetyandsecurity:Stabilitydirectlyaffects

touristconfidence;forinstance,Israelstourismindustrysufferedan81.5%declineintourist

arrivalsinthefourthquarterof2023comparedtothepreviousyear,droppingfrom930,000

to180,000visitorsaftertheoutbreakofthe

Gazaconflict.3Similarly,Ukraineexperienced

a29%decreaseintourismtaxrevenuesinthefirstquarterof2023versusthepreviousyear,

alongsidea34%dropinthenumberoftourism-relatedtaxpayers,asongoingconflictseverelydisrupteditstravelsector.4

OpennesstoT&T:Post-pandemic,42low-tomiddle-incomeeconomiesrelaxedvisa

requirements,boostingtheirOpennessscores

by12%(20192024).However,geopolitical

rivalrieshaveincreasinglylednationstoimposestrictervisarulesonadversarialcountries,

mirroringColdWarera-typerestrictions.

Thepotentialimplicationsinclude:

Regionalizationoftravel:Inareceding

globalizationcontext,regionalblocssuchastheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)andtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea

(AfCFTA)dominatetourismflows.Intra-ASEANtravelnowaccountsfor68%ofarrivals,upfrom40%in2019,5drivenbyharmonizedvisapoliciesandairagreements.

Supply-chainvulnerabilities:Decoupling

betweenmajoreconomies(e.g.USChina)

couldfragmentaviationstandards,disruptairlinealliancesandraiseoperationalcosts.TheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)reportsatriplingof

tradedisputessince2020,threateningcross-bordertourisminvestments.6

Conflictzonesandtourism:Destinations

suchasUkraineandGazahaveseentourismgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)collapseby

morethan80%sincethestartoftheconflictsthere,whileneighbouringareas(e.g.Ukraineswesternborderregions)benefitfromredirecteddomesticdemand.7

Economicgrowthtrajectory

ThisvariableisconcernedwithglobalandregionalGDPgrowthrates,incomeinequalitydynamicsandfiscalpoliciesinfluencingdisposableincomesandtraveldemand:

Infrastructurefoundation:Enablingadequateinfrastructureisanindispensablecornerstoneforsustainablegrowthwithinthetravelandtourismsector,underpinningtheefficientmovementof

6FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism

peopleandgoodswhileenhancingdestinationaccessibilityandcompetitiveness.Without

strategicinvestmentsintransportationnetworks,digitalconnectivityandsupportingfacilities,

economiesriskconstrainingtheirtourismpotentialandimpedingbroadereconomicdevelopmenttrajectories.

T&Tsocioeconomicimpact:Inemerging

markets,T&Tgenerates33%ofhigh-wage

jobsversus19.5%inadvancedeconomies,

accordingtoWorldTravelandTourismCouncil(WTTC)data.8However,stagflationarypressuresintourism-dependenteconomies(e.g.the

Maldives,theSeychelles)canhindereconomicgrowth,leadingtobothhigherinflationand

economicvulnerabilities.9Indeed,these

pressuresaregenerallyexacerbatedbythe

limitedeconomicdiversificationtypicalofsmallislandtourismeconomies,makingthemhighlysensitivetoexternalshockssuchasfluctuationsintouristarrivalsorglobalcommodityprice;asaresult,risingimportcostsandpersistentcurrentaccountdeficitscanquicklytranslateintohigherconsumerpricesandincreaseddebtburdens,furtherconstrainingfiscalspaceandheighteningeconomicvulnerability.

Pricecompetitiveness:Globalinflation

(averaging6.5%in2023)haserodedTTDI2024scoresby8%since2019,10withlow-income

economies(14%)disproportionatelyaffected.

Crudeoilpriceshaveundergonehighvolatility,rangingfrom$58to$123perbarrel,11due

toglobaleconomicuncertainty,whichhadadirectimpactonflightsandotherfuel-basedtransportationcoststhattypicallyrepresentasignificantbudgetitemforatrip.

Thepotentialimplicationsinclude:

Demandpolarization:High-incometravellers

driveluxurysegments(e.g.luxuryeco-lodges,

spacetourism),withIndiaandChinafuellingtheneedforpremiumofferings.Asia-Pacificsmiddleclass,projectedtoreach3.5billionby2030,12willreshaperegionaltourism,favouringdestinationssuchasIndonesiaandVietNam.

Debtandinvestment:Debt-to-GDPratios

exceeding60%in78countrieslimitpublic-

sectortourisminfrastructurespending.Jamaicastourism-dependenteconomy,forinstance,facesa$1.2billionannualfinancinggapforclimate-

resilienthotels.13Asanadditionalexample,the

Maldivespublicdebt-to-GDPratioreached110%in2022andisprojectedtoremainabove120%in2024,severelyconstrainingthegovernments

abilitytofundnewtourisminfrastructuredespitethesectorscriticalroleineconomicgrowth.14

Labourmarketpressures:Hospitalitywageslag19%behindcomparablesectorsinOrganisationofEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

(OECD)nations,exacerbatingshortages.

Digitalizationcoulddisplace18millionjobsby

2030,necessitatingreskillingprogrammessuchastheEuropeanUnions“TourismSkillsPassport”.15

Sustainabilitytransitionspeed

Thevariablehererelatestothepaceof

decarbonization,circular-economyadoptionandpoliciesbalancingtourismgrowthwithecologicallimits:

Environmentalsustainability:Whilerenewableenergyinglobaltravelandtourismoperationswouldbeintherangeof4.5%to10%,

sustainableaviationfuel(SAF)useremainsbelow1%ofglobalaviationfuelsupply.Only22%ofnationsalignwithParisAgreementtargetsfortourism.16

T&Tdemandsustainability:OvercrowdingatUnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganization(UNESCO)sites(e.g.

AngkorWat,MachuPicchu)hasreduced

by4.7%since2021.Dynamicpricingand

visitorcapsatBorobudurTemple,Indonesia,cutfootfallby29%inthesameperiodwhile

increasingpercapitaspendto34%.17Thepotentialimplicationsinclude:

Regulatoryshifts:Carbonbordertaxes

(e.g.theEUsCarbonBorderAdjustment

Mechanism[CBAM])mayfundT&T

decarbonizationbyasmuchas€9.1billionannuallyby2030.18CostaRicaseco-lodgesachieve28%returnoninvestment(ROI),

incentivizinggreeninvestments.

Assetstranding:Coastalresortsface$1.2

trillioninfloodrisksby2035.TheCaribbeansparametricinsurancepools19nowcover60%ofproperties,mitigatinglosses.

Consumerbehaviour:Airmobilityremains

thehighestsourceofcarbonemissions,

whereascruise-shipemissionsofnitrogenoxidecompounds(NOx)roseby18%between2019

andindustrystakeholdersmustconfrontthe

and202220Thistrendsignalsthattravellers.

growingenvironmentalimpactoftheirchoices,aspersistenthighemissionsfromairandcruisetravelarelikelytodrawincreasedregulatory

scrutinyandpublicconcern.Ifthesectordoesnotproactivelyinvestincleanertechnologiesandtransparentemissionsreporting,itrisks

losingenvironmentallyconsciouscustomers,facingstricterregulations,anddamagingitslong-termreputationandgrowthprospects.

Technologicaladoptioncurve

ThevariablehererelatestothediffusionofAI,

blockchainandinternetofthings(IoT)solutions

FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism7

acrossT&Toperations,frompersonalizedmarketingtoresourcemanagement:

ICTreadiness:TTDI2024scoreshaverisenby7.2%since2019,yet63%ofleast-developed

countrieslack5Ginfrastructure.AfricasICTscore(2.88)trailsAsia-Pacific(4.98),hinderingsmart

destinationmanagement.

Non-leisureresources:Hybridwork

policieshaveboostedblendedtravel,atrend

followedbyabout80%ofbusinesstravellers

nowadays.21Digitalnomadvisasin34countries(e.g.EstoniaandtheUnitedArabEmirates)nowattract4.2millionremoteworkersannually.

Somerelevantillustrativefeaturesincludethefollowing:

Cybersecuritythreats:Sectorlossesfrom

breachesmayhit$450billionannuallyby

2030,whichisconsideredinthehighrange

vs.othersectors,althoughfinancialservices

andhealthcarewouldtypicallyexperience

higherabsolutelossesduetolargertransactionvolumesandmorevaluabledata.ISO27018-TTcertificationmandatesencryptionforplatforms

handlingmorethan1millionuserrecords;travelandtourismbusinessesshouldthereforeurgentlyinvestinrobustdataprotectionandcomplianceframeworkstoavoidregulatorypenaltiesand

operationaldisruptions.Failuretoactwillleaveorganizationsespeciallythe80%ofSMEsthatmakeupthesectorexposedtoincreasingly

sophisticatedcyberattacks,undermining

businesscontinuity,customerexperienceandtheglobalcompetitivenessofdestinations.

Virtualtourismdisruption:Theglobalvirtual

tourismmarketisvaluedat$14.2billionin

2025andisprojectedtoreach$29.1billion

by2035(CAGR7.4%)asimmersivedigital

experiencesbecomemoremainstreamintravel,educationandcorporatesectors,22increasing

thetotalattendancenumberoverexisting

physicaltravel.TheCoachellaValleyMusicandArtsFestivallaunchedtheCoachellaverse,a

digitalplatformenablingglobalaudienceswhocannotattendinpersontoparticipateinthefestivalexperience,blendingentertainment,

socialinteractionanddigitalcollectibles.23

Inconclusion,theT&Tsectorsfuturewillbe

shapedbytheintensityandinteractionofthesefourvariables.Stakeholdersmustadopta

systems-thinkingapproach,recognizingthatadvancesinsustainabilityortechnologyalonecannotoffsetgeopoliticaloreconomicshocks.

Byaligninginvestmentswithnewstrategies

fromICTinfrastructuretolabourinclusivitythesectorcannavigateuncertaintyandemergeasacatalystforgrowth.Anecosystemapproach

withallindustriesiscriticalforthesustainabilityofthesectorandtoensureitunlocksfullpositivepotentialequallyforeconomiesandbusinesses,andresidentsandtravellers.

ApproachandmethodologyusedtoidentifythekeyscenariosforT&T

Intodayscomplexanddynamicvolatileenvironment,a

comprehensivemethodologyhasbeendevelopedtoidentifyandprioritizescenariosthatpossessthegreatestlikelihoodofmaterializing,therebyempoweringstakeholderstonavigateuncertaintywithnewinsightsandstrategicdirection.The

selectedtimeframe,20252030,couldbereassessedlateron,askeyvariablesmaychange.

Mostofthedatasetforscenariodeterminationisfrom

internationalorganizations,withtheremainingdatacomingfromsurveysandinterviewsconductedwithmembersoftheWorldEconomicForuminMarchApril2025toenrichthepaperwithfield-basedinsights.

Inaddition,standardizedkeymetricssupportingthefourmajorvariablesdescribedinSection1.1areconsideredacrossallscenariosforclarityandcompatibility(e.g.GDPcontribution,numberofvisitors,employmentimpact,

percentageoftotalgreenhousegas[GHG]emissions,

TTDI2024scores)andcomparedtoabasecase(current

state/“ifnothinghappens”)tohelphighlighttherelative

differencesacrossthescenarios.Theoverallachievedscoreobtainedforeachscenarioiscomputedthroughsuccessiveaggregationsofscoresobtainedforeachmeasured

variable.Finalscoresarefirstnormalizedandratedonacommonscaleof1to10,with1beingtheleastprobableand10themostprobableoutcome.

TheT&Tsectorisatacriticalinflectionpoint,shaped

bytheinterplayofmacroeconomicvolatility,geopolitical

realignments,environmentalpressuresandtechnological

disruptions.Thiswhitepapersynthesizesdatafromthe

WorldEconomicForums

Travel&TourismDevelopment

Index(TTDI)2024

andfromthe

GlobalRisksReport2025

inconsultationwiththeT&Tcommunityandsectorexpertstoconstructfourplausiblescenariosforthesectorsevolutionoverthenextdecade.Byexaminingkeymetricsand

theircombinatorialeffects,theanalysisidentifiesstrategicimplicationsandmitigationstrategiesforstakeholders.

8FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism

Scenariosfor

thefutureofT&T

Basedongrowthareasandtensionpoints,potentialscenarioscouldserveasaguidingpathfortheglobalT&Tcommunity.

Thepurposeofthescenariospresentedinthis

paperistoexamineglobalmegatrendsandplot

unpredictableevents,highlightingtheirpotential

rippleeffectsontheT&Tsector.Theaimisto

emphasizethecriticalityandpotentialimpactof

certainfactorsforT&Tstakeholdersandindustry

playerstoconsider,discussandincorporateintotheirstrategicplans.Ratherthantryingtopredictfuture

eventsprecisely,thesescenariosacknowledgethepossibilityofunforeseeneventsinthecomingyears.

Eachofthescenariosfeaturedisoutlinedas

follows:firstbyelaboratingonitsrespective

structuralfoundations,demand–supplydynamicsandeconomicmultipliers,andfinallybyelaboratingonitsrespectiveriskmatrix(highlightingkeyrelatedrisks)aswellasonthesustainabilitytrade-offs.The

contentsarederivedbasedonavailableforecastsof

travelandtourismpublicdata.

2.1

FIGURE1

Majorscenariosidentified

Overviewofthefourmajorscenarios

Scenario1

Athousandislandsworld

Scenario2

Harmonioushorizons

Scenario3

Greenascent

Scenario4

Techturbulence

2

Characterizedbyhigh

Characterizedbyhigh

Characterizedbyarapid

Characterizedbyacceleratedtech

geopoliticalfragmentationand

geopoliticalstabilityandstrong

sustainabilitytransitionand

disruptionandunevengrowth

globaleconomicstagnation

economicgrowth

moderategrowth

Source:WorldEconomicForum

FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism9

Scenario1:Athousandislandsworld

Thisfirstscenarioischaracterizedbyhighgeopoliticalfragmentationandglobaleconomicstagnationandhasthefollowingcharacteristics.

个Caption:PhiPhiIslands,Thailand

Structuralfoundations:Thisscenarioarisesfromescalatinggeopoliticaltensions,tradedecoupling

andaretreatfrommultilateralism.Thefragmentationofglobalgovernancesystems–evidencedbythe

collapseofWTOdisputeresolutionmechanisms

andtheproliferationofregionaltradeblocs–drivesa45%reductionincross-bordertourisminvestmentby2030.Geopoliticalflashpoints,suchasterritorialdisputesinGazaandUkraine,reduceSafetyand

SecuritypillarTTDIscoresby11%inaffected

regions,whilevisarestrictionsincountriessuchastheUSandintheEuropeanUnion24arebecomingsignificantlystricterandmorecomplex,reflectingapolicyshifttowardstighterimmigrationcontrolsandheightenedsecurityscreening.25TheTTDI

2024’sOpennesstoT&Tpillarrevealsthat63%ofeconomiesnowimposestrictervisarequirementsfortravellersfromgeopoliticalrivals,mirroringColdWar-eratravelbarriers.

Economicstagnationexacerbatesthesetrends,withglobalGDPgrowthstalledat1.1%annually.

Advancedeconomiesfaceprolongedinflationary

pressures,whileemergingmarketsgrapplewith

debtcrisestriggeredbyrisinginterestrates.The

InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)projectsa22%

declineinpercapitatourismspendinginlow-incomeeconomiesby2030,ascurrencydevaluationsandfiscalausterityreducedisposableincomes.

Demand–supplydynamics:Asignificant

decreaseinlong-haulaviationnetworksreshapestourismflows,withregionalblocsdominating

travelpatterns.ASEANintraregionaltourism

surgesto68%oftotalarrivals(vs.40%in2024),supportedbythebloc’ssingleaviationmarketandharmonizedvisapolicies.Similarly,theAfCFTA

couldboostintra-Africantourismto55%of

arrivalsby2030,upfrom48%in2024.26However,airfarevolatilityincreasesby300%onremaining

internationalroutesduetofuelpriceshocksandprotectionistaviationpolicies(i.e.government

measuresdesignedtoshieldanation’sdomesticaviationindustryfromforeigncompetition).

Supplychainslocalizeasgeopoliticaltensions

disruptgloballogistics.Europeanhotelchains

reshore32%ofprocurementactivities,increasing

constructioncostsby18%duetoreduced

economiesofscale.27Labourshortagespersist,

withTTDIdatashowinga14%declineinhospitalityworkforceparticipationratesacrossOECDnationssince2020,drivenbyageingdemographicsand

restrictivemigrationpolicies.Automationaccelerates,with38%ofairportcheck-inandbaggage-handlingtasksreplacedbyAIsystems–thoughthisfails

tofullyoffsetproductivitylossesfromfragmentedregulatoryenvironments.

10FourScenariosfortheFutureofTravelandTourism

Caption:LauterbrunnenValley,Switzerland

Economicmultipliers–thescenarioyieldsmitigatedsocioeconomicbenefits:

–Employmentshifts:DirectT&Temployment

contractsby22millionjobsglobally,

concentratedinaviationandcross-border

tourismservices.However,regionalrailnetworkscreate8.5millionnewjobs,exemplifiedbythe

EU’sTrans-EuropeExpress2.0programmelinkingsecondarycities.28

–Assetstranding:$1.2trillioninaviation

infrastructurebecomesobsolete,including

47majorhubairportsreliantonnow-defunctlong-haulroutes.29Conversely,border-regioneconomiessuchasMexico’sBajaCaliforniaandPoland’seasternterritoriessee12%GDPgrowthfromcross-bordershoppingtourism.

–Securitypremiums:Travelinsurancecosts

tripleduetoconflictrisks,while“safezone”

certificationprogrammesemergefordestinations

meetingISO31030riskmanagementstandards.Riskmatrix:

–Aviationcollapse:Thegroundingof60%of

wide-bodyfleetsreducesaviationemissions

considerablybutalsoeliminateasignificant

numberofrelatedjobs.Asasuggested

mitigationsolution,theInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)’sRegionalAirMobilityFundsubsidizesshort-haulelectricaircraftroutes,

preservingconnectivityfor78secondaryhubs.

–Surveillancetourism:Biometricentry–exit

systemsin34countriesenablereal-timetravellertracking,deterring75millionprivacy-conscioustouristsannually.30AmitigationexamplewouldbetoleveragetheEU’sGeneralDataProtection

Regulation(GDPR)++frameworkthatmandatesalgorithmictransparencyanddataminimizationforT&Toperators.

–Resourcenationalism:Exportbansonlithiumandrare-earthmetalsdisruptEVbattery

production,stallinggreenmobilityinvestments.Asamitigationexample,theWTTC’sCircularTourismInitiativeachieves92%recyclingratesforretiredaircraftbatteriesthroughpublic–

privatepartnerships.31

Sustainabilitytrade-offs:Whilereducedaviation

activitylowerssectoremissions,railandroad

transportemissionsriseby14%astouristsshifttoland-basedtravel.Overtourismpressuresintensifyinborderregions:in2023,theCanaryIslands–a

borderregionbetweenEuropeandAfricawitha

residentpopulationofabout2million–experiencedovertourismpressuresasnearly14millionvisitors

arrived,leadingtosevereovercrowding,housing

shortagesandwidespreadlocalprotestsagainst

thestrainonresourcesandqualityoflife.32Asan

illustrationontheimpactonbiodiversity,visitor

numbersatPoland’sBiałowieżaForestexceed

carryingcapacityby37%,triggeringa29%declineinlynxpopulations.33TTDIDemandSustainability

scoresplummetto2.89(vs.3.53in2024),reflectingextremeseasonalityandovercrowdingatremaining“safe”destinations.

Inshort,thisfirstscenariohighlightsaworldsplit

intoa“thousandislands”,operatinginisolation

fromeachotheraswellasunderscoringT&T’s

vulnerabilitytosystemicgeopolit