中国智能驾驶芯片：竞争格局及关键供应商深入L2+以上NOA细分市场

+85221232654+12135595917+85229185704+85221232626+85221232694+19173448454+19173448461+85221232632SeetheDisclosureAp 34 38 38 42 46 46 50Compre-hensivesoftwarecapabilityLimitedsoftwarecapabilityCompre-hensivesoftwarecapabilityLimitedsoftwarecapability复XILINX。芯驰semiDriveQualcornL1-L2focused(5-10TOPS)L2+&Abovefocused(>80TOPS)LeastcompetitiveMostcompetitiveAttractivenesstotalentsSoCdesigncapabilityforlargescalechipsOEMservicesupportLearnbydoingapproach,butcoulditeratefastVisionarystrategy,continuousR&Dinvestment,andflexibleSBCtoattracttoptalentsSufficientcustomizationserviceandR&DsupportBuilduprelationshipAttractivenesstotalentsSoCdesigncapabilityforlargescalechipsOEMservicesupportLearnbydoingapproach,butcoulditeratefastVisionarystrategy,continuousR&Dinvestment,andflexibleSBCtoattracttoptalentsSufficientcustomizationserviceandR&DsupportBuilduprelationshipthroughcollaborationSmartdrivingSoCspecialistsAI/SoCfablessincumbentsRichexperienceinHPC-levelSoCengineeringNewventuresinbigestablishedcompaniescannotofferenoughequitytodrawinthebestpeopleBuilduprelationshipthroughproductsiterationLimitedcustomizationserviceorR&DsupportQualconTraditionalautosemivendorsRichexpertiseinauto-standardsemi(maturenode)Donotpossessknow-howtointegrateHPC-levelSoCsinlargediesizeNewventuresinmaturecompaniescannotattracttoptalentsNewinitiativew/odeterminedstrategyStrongrelationshipwithOEMsandTier1LackofHPCR&DsupportcapabilitiesUsuallywithoutsufficientscale.Cultureconflictinmfg.firmsAcompletedfresharea(exceptforHuawei),challengesoftenunderestimated●SeamlessinternalsupportInternalsupplymodelrestrictsexternalOEMopportunitiesOEMsIPforsmartdrivingcomputingcoreDevelopproprietaryIPcoresthatarespecializedforsmartdrivingalgosProvenexpertiseinIPforSoC(GPGPU,DSP),butnotsmartdrivingspecializedLackafoundationinkeySoCcoresPredominantfocusonMCULimitedin-houseIPincoredesigns.UsuallyrelyonIPlicenseSmartdrivingchipsTOPSandvolumeproductiontimelineinChinaINT8SparseTOPs10,0001,00010010NVThor-X-superNVThor-XQCOMQAM8797PSiengine△△500GlobalDomesticNVThor-X-superNVThor-XQCOMQAM8797PSiengine△△500Turing1,0001,000750700HorizonJ6P560BlackSesameA1000Pro 196Orin-X-口254BlackSesameA2000116HorizonJ5/128128HorizonJ6MNVThor-UTuring1,0001,000750700HorizonJ6P560BlackSesameA1000Pro 196Orin-X-口254BlackSesameA2000116HorizonJ5/128128HorizonJ6MNVThor-UNioNX9031200-1000TOPSTeslaHW4360630HuaweiAscend610400512UrbanNOA(L2++)NV1000+TOPSL3+2,000XpengHuaweiAscend21096BlackSesameA1000BlackSesameSA8650P80-200TOPS+HighwayNOA(L2+)TeslaHW3口72HorizonJ6E84100QCOMNVXavier32MobileyeEQ5H一A1000L32■w /32一A1000L32■w24TITDA4VH829530口34MobileyeEQ6High4<10TOPS4TITDA4VM8HorizonJ3510HorizonJ6B3HorizonJ2MobileyeEQ4EQ6Lite20182019202020212022202320242025E2026+E2024L1-L2vehicles’shareandtheirequippedfrontcameraSoCmarketshareinChina(Mn)23None-L0L1-L2L2+L2++39%None-L0L1-L2L2+L2++39%(48%)4%9%2024MobileyeXilinx26%23%HorizonRenesasMobileyeXilinx26%23%HorizonRenesasOthers5%5%23%23%PenetrationPenetrationrateL1-L2frontcamera+domaincontrollersSoCvendorsmarketshareinChina(by#ofvehicles,Mn)MobileyeTIAmbarellaAxeraQualcommToshibaMobileyeTIAmbarellaAxeraQualcommToshibaHorizon3.462.2328%14%23%30%1Q2448.0%2.2527%21%24%24%2Q2448.3%2.6424%27%23%21%3Q2446.7%26%28%22%19%4Q2448.1%2.2227%23%23%21%1Q2546.3%2.1930%16%25%22%2Q2540.5%+TheshifttowardsL2+&L2++vehicleshasalreadybeenunderway,leadingtoadeclineinthenumberofL1-L2levelvehiclesin25H1comparedto24H1+Horizonhasalreadyprovenitscommercializationcapabilitythroughsoundsuccessinfront-camerachipssectorVendors,#ofpenetratedvehiclesinL2+Vendors,#ofpenetratedvehiclesinL2++(kvehicles)(kvehicles)MultiplevendorsNvidiaMobileyeTIHorizonQualcommBlackSesameHuaweiTesla877333643503336435059026059026013613619719417967843119719417967843163521132821113282199309930 13 13541Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q25Penetrationrate4.4%4.4%5.1%5.5%7.7%16.1% 17541Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q25Penetrationrate4.4%4.4%5.1%5.5%7.7%16.1%2429782611Q245.1%4351761462Q248.9%5592511221843Q249.6%7273801481974Q249.8%481253921351Q259.7%6913921521302Q2512.3%/////|Horizon’srevenuebysegment(MnUSD)33192Auto-Productsolutions21972135229Auto-License&Service229487232723272311612109Non-Autosolutions16121092021202220232024BlackSesame’sclientmixbyTOPS(MnTOPS)5.855.925.855.4211%Dongfeng5.4211%24%28%3.5810%89%2.3432%89%2.3432%1.833%1.833%96%0%72%90%68%GAC0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q25BlackSesame’srevenuebysegment(MnUSD)6644Auto-intotalAuto-intotal27251310125093554Auto-SoCsolutions Auto-algorithmsolutionsIntelligent1012509355420212022202320242025.EyeQ1EyeQ2EyeQ3EyeQ4EyeQ5EyeQ6LiteEyeQ6HighEyeQUltraSingle-chipcomputingpower0.005TOPS0.026TOPS0.256TOPS1.1-2.5TOPS2-24TOPS5TOPS34TOPS176TOPSCPU2-coreARMCortex-A534-coreARMCortex-A531-coreARMCortex-A91-coreARMCortex-A532-coreARMCortex-A532-coreARM8-coreARM12-coreRISC-VProcessnode180nm90nm40nm28nm7nm7nm7nm5nmPowerconsumption2.5W2.5W2.5W3W10W15W50W100WApplicablelevelL0LanedeparturewarningTrafficsignrecognitionL1-L2LanekeepingAdaptivecruisecontrolL2/L2+&Above(inmultiunits)AimforL4-L5Massproductionyear20082010201420182021Mid-2024Early-2025Targetfor2026(delaybyatleast1yearvs.initialplan)VehiclemodelsBMW7-series(E56LCI)BMW5-series(F10)TeslaModelS/XNISSANRogue;HiPhiX,DongfengXinghaiV9,Voyah,AudiQ5e-tron,BuickGL8,NIOEC6/ES8;ChanganFord/Haval/Oraev/Tank/WeyZeekr001/009(SuperVision);Smart;VolvoEM90/Polestar4Zeekr001/009(SuperVision);SmartVWfor17modelsCompatiblesolutionsMobileyeBaseADAS2unitsofQ5HighforSuperVision(L2+/++)8unitsofQ5HighforDrive(L5)ADASfrontcamera:BaseADAS,Cloud-enhancedADAS(eyes-on,hands-on)1unitforsurroundADAS(L2)2unitsforSuperVision(L2+/++)3-4unitsforChauffeur(L3-L4)4unitsforDrive(L5)Mobileyesmartdrivingsolutionsshipmentvolume(Mnunits)37.400.1128.710.1233.7928.710.12SuperVisionSuperVision(L2+/L2++)Base/EnhancedADAS(L0-L2)0.0137.2919.140.0037.2933.7028.1328.6019.1420202021202220232024Mobileyefrontcamera&domaincontrollerchipspenetratedvehiclevolumebyOEMinChina(Mnvehicles)1.6223%1.3214%1.3214%17%17%13%7%SAIC23%17%23%FAW17%GreatGreatWallHuachenGACChangan GeelyDongfengBAICOthers19%12%7%7%7%7%7%5%1%2%7%8%12%8%6%12%8%2%4%3%1%2%2%4%3%1%1H242H241H25Mobileye’srevenuebysegmentMobileye’srevenuebyregion(MnUSD)(MnUSD)SuperVisionChina(L2+/L2++)Base/EnhancedADAS1,869(L2+/L2++)Base/EnhancedADAS1,869135(7%)2,079118(6%)1,654146(9%)1,870(90%)1,407(85%)Otherrev1,3869(1%)9671,641(88%)1,641(88%)(0%)1,301(94%)895(93%)72759290101USGermanyUSGermanyOthers1,8696401,6544241,654424(26%)304(18%)269551(29%)1,386270(19%)363270(19%)363(26%)967134(14%)254(26%)472(21%)472(25%)353268263153426490578426490(7%)(5%)(5%)(4%)(6%)20202021(7%)(5%)(5%)(4%)(6%)20202021202220232024R&DexpensecomparisonbetweenMobileyeandHorizon(MnUSD)1,2641,083MobileyeHorizon1,08388978961954443833428017720212022202320242025EOverarchingOverarchingsafetyNVIDIAHalos•AsafetysystemensuresthesafedevelopmentanddeploymentofAvs(autonomousvehicles)acrosstheentirestack•Vehicle-standardsafetycertificationTrainingIn-vehicledeploymentDriveOSTrainingIn-vehicledeploymentDriveOS•Fullsoftwarestack•Operatingsystem•DevelopertoolchainCosmos•WorldfoundationmodelsforgeneratingsyntheticdatatotrainandvalidateAVsystemOmniverseonOVX•3Dsimulationenvironments(digitaltwins)fortest&validationSoC•In-vehicleedgecomputing,processingsensordataSimulationNVIDIADGXsystem•HPCplatformforsmartdrivingmodeltraining.Utilizedindatacentersfortrainingperception,planning,andcontrolmodels•EquippedwithNVGPUs,e.g.,H100,•SupportTensorFlow,PyTorch,andCUDADriveAGXXavier/PegasusDrivePX2AGXPegasusOrin-XOrin-NThor-UThor-XPegasusSingle-chipcomputingpower24TOPS(2unitsofTegraX2SoCs)30TOPS320TOPS(2unitsofXavier+2TuringGPUs)254TOPS84TOPS700TOPS1000TOPSCPU12-coreARMCortex-A57&Denver28-coreARMcarmel-V8.28-coreARMCortex-A5512-coreARMCortex-A78AE6/8-coreARMCortex-A78AE14-coreARMNeoverseV3AE14-coreARMNeoverseV3AEArchitecturePascalGPUVoltaGPUTuringGPUAmpereGPUAmpereGPUBlackwellGPUBlackwellGPUProcessnodeTSMC16nmTSMC12nmTSMC12nmSamsung8nmSamsung8nmTSMC4nmTSMC4nmApplicablelevelL0-L2L0-L2L4prototypesL2+/L2++L2+L2++/L3andaboveL2++/L3-L5Massproductionyear2016Sep2019Q12019Q32022202320252026VehiclemodelsTesla;VolvoXC90;RoboraceracecarsXpengP5/P7;SAICIMMotor;Volvo;FaradayFutureFF91;Canoo;Pony.AIPony.AI;Yandex.Taxi;NuTonomyBYD:Han,Song,Tang,Seal,Sealion,YangwangGeely:Lynk,Zeeker,LotusSAIC:RisingGAC:AION,Hyptec,Trumpchi,Hiphi,LeapmotorLiAuto,NIO,Xiaomi,Xpengetc.BYDSeal/Sealion/Dolphin,BYDHan/Song/Denza;DongfengNissanN7;XiaomiSU7;GeelyLynk900;LiAuto25versionL6/L7/L8/L9/MEGA;XiaomiYU7Mainlyforrobotaxiatpresent:2unitsThor-XforWeRide1H24-1H25NVIDIAsmartdrivingchipspenetratedvehiclevolumebyOEM(Mnvehicles)1.498%6%Li8%6%NIO0.8456%BYD0.8456%18%17%6%11%0.3327%27%13%13%GeelyXiaomiXpeng 3%9%3%7%6%11%0.3327%27%13%13%GeelyXiaomiXpeng 3%9%3%7%SAIC」9%7%8%7%2%5%15%Others5%OthersincludeLeapmotor,GreatWall,GAC,Chery,Changan,HiPhi,Hezhong,andDongfeng1H242H241H25NVIDIA’Autobusinessrevenueandits%intotalrevenue(MnUSD,FYendedonJan31)1,694+33%1,091903536566AutoFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025%ital3.2%2.1%3.4%1.8%1.3%SmartdrivingchipsportfolioCockpit-DrivingintegratedchipsportfolioInfotainmentchipsportfolio1-gen:SDRide85402-gen:SDRide8650/86203-gen:SDRideEliteSDRideFlex/SA8775PSA8797/SA8799Single-chipcomputingpower360TOPS3versions:50TOPS,72TOPS,100TOPS720TOPS72TOPS>600TOPSApplicationL2+/L2++L1-L2,andentry-levelL2+L2++,L3Cockpit-drivingintegrationHighwayNOA,UrbanMemoryDrivingCockpit-drivingintegrationforpremiummarketL2++ProcessnodeSamsung5nmSamsung5nmFinFETNA4nmNAMassproductionyearFailed2025AnnouncedinOct2024,samplingin202520252026Q1VehiclemodelsNALeapmotorB10/C10/C11/C16;CheryFulwinA9L;HongqiAutoEH7,05/06/08;BMWNeueKlasseStillinsamplingstageGlobaldebutinNetaDomaincontrollersbyBOSCH,andThundercommLeapmotorD-serieswithdual8797DesignwininSAICBUICKMarketsharelandscapeofintelligentcockpitchipsinChinaby#ofchips(~9Mnunitsintotal,LTMfrom24Septo25Aug)TXNOthers6%MediaTekSamsungOthers6%1%2%SemiDriveRenesas1%2%1%3%1%1%SiEngine1%5%AMD7%73%QualcommQualcommsmartdrivingchipspenetratedvehiclevolumebyOEM(kvehicles)109109106109Leapmotor1061092525CherySAIC2521211H251H242H241H24Qualcomm’Autobusinessrevenueandits%intotalrevenue(MnUSD,FYendedonSep30)2,910+46%2,910+46%1,8721,372975644Auto20202021202220232024%ital2.7%2.9%3.1%5.2%7.5%2025.Jacinto6EXTDA2XTDA3XTDA4VMTDA4VHComputingpowerEst.30-40GFLOPSTOPSTOPS8TOPS(4*MMAs)32TOPS(16*MMAs)CoreforAIinferenceDSP(digitalsignalprocessor)+EVE(embeddedvisionengine)mainlyforvisionanalysisDSP+MMA(matrixmultiplyaccelerator)dedicatedtodeepneuralnetworkworkloadsCPU&DSP2-coreARMA152-C66xDSP2-coreARMA152-C66xDSP2-coreARMM42-C66xDSP2-coreARMA72C7xDSP8-coreARMA724-C7xDSPProcessnode28nm28nm28nm16nm16nmApplicablelevelL0Infotainmentwithlightweightvisionperceptionextension360parking,warning,drivermonitoringL0-L1frontcameraLane,pedestrianL0-L2frontcameraSurroundview,parkassist,visionfusionL0-L2frontcamera&domaincontrollerMulti-camerafusion,automatedparking,domaincontrollerL0-L2frontcamera&domaincontrollerMulti-sensorfusion,automatedparking,domaincontrollerMassproductionyear20142014201620212022H2VehiclemodelsVW’sMIBIIinfotainmentsystem>100modelsof25+OEMsNetaS,GeelyXingyuL,Voyah,CheryExeed,Hongqi,Passat,BaojunCheryiCAR,GeelyLivan7,BaojunYunhai/Yueye/Yunduo,HavalXiaolongTXN’ssmartdrivingchipspenetratedvehiclevolume