2025年从芯片到汽车：深入探讨ADAS与Robotaxi报告

GlobalEquityResearch

15October2025

FromChipstoCars:DeepDiveintoADASandRobotaxis

ACross-SectorDeepDiveintoAutonomousMobilityandRobotaxis

AccordingtotheWHO,~2fatalroadaccidentsoccureveryminuteworldwide.Roadtrafficinjuriesremaintheleadingcauseofdeathforchildrenandyoungpeopleaged5-29years.IntheUnitedStates,over90%ofcrashesareattributedtohumanchoicesorerrors,suchasspeeding,distractions,drowsiness,oralcoholconsumption.In2023,analcohol-relateddrivingfatalityoccurredonaverageevery~42minutesintheU.S.InsomedevelopedcountrieslikeSpain,whichhasalowrateofroadfatalities,statisticsindicatethatabout~78%ofroadfatalitiesinvolvedmen,around50%testedpositiveforalcoholordrugs,and~26%offatalitiesoccurredonhighways.Theautomotiveindustry,alongwithsemiconductorandtechnologycompanies,including5oftheso-calledMagnificent7intheUS,areinvolveddirectlyorindirectlyinsolvingautonomousdriving.Lookingaheadtothenextdecade,webelievethatautonomousdrivingwillbecomeamajortrend,potentiallybeingresolvedbeforeachievingzeroemissions.Thisnoteexaminestheimpactoftheglobalraceforautonomyacrossvarioussectors,includingautomotive,trucks,suppliers,technology,ridesharing,semiconductors,andinsurance.

Impactofautonomousdrivingontheglobalautoindustry(GlobalAutosteam,JoseM.Asumendi).Currently,themajorityofglobalcarsalesarespreadbetweenlevel0-2autonomousdriving.Themarketforrobotaxisandfullyautonomousvehicles,bothwithandwithouthumanintervention,isexpectedtobevaluedat~300bnUSDby2035.Weprojectthatlevel3to5autonomousvehicleswillaccountforlessthan5%oftheglobalmarketin2025,~15%in2030,-25%in2035,and-45%in2040.Chinaisexpectedtoleadintherobotaxiandlevel4/5AdvancedDriverAssistanceSystems(ADAS)race,with~45%ofthesevehiclesbeingdeployedfromaglobalperspective.WithregardstotheprofitabledeploymentofLevel4/5autonomouscarsorRobotaxis,weseeseveralhurdlestheindustryneedstoovercomeinthemediumterm:a)thetechnologyneedstobecomemature;andb)thecostofthetechandhardwarestackneedstocomedownexponentially,astheautoindustrydeploysmillionsofvehicleswiththistechnology.Weestimatethatarobotaxicarinordertohitbreak-evenwouldneedtohaveautilizationratioofatleast80%assumingthevehicleisabletodeploy20%fewertripsperhourversusataxidrivenbyahuman.Initially,robotaxis,orlevel4/5autonomouscars,willbedeployedwithveryexpensivehardwarewhichwillultimatelycomedownexponentiallyas:a)thetechnologyisproventobesafeinsmallfleetsdeployedmainlyacrosstheUSandChina;andb)theeconomiesofscaleoftheautomotiveindustryaredeployedacrossmillionsofcarswhichwillenabletheexpansionoftherobotaxibusinessmodel,followedbythedeploymentofthistechacrossthepremiumsegmentandfinallyacrossthemassmarket.

GlobalAutos&AutoParts

JoseMAsumendiAC

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AkiraKishimoto

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RyanBrinkman

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NickLai

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MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

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Registration:INH000001873,(91-22)6157-3000.

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BancoJ.P.MorganS.A.

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Seepage79foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

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15October2025

Uber&LyftWillbeImportantPlayersintheAVEcosystem(DougAnmuth).WethinkAVsatscalecouldhelpunlocka$1T+TAMintheUSitselfasitdriveshigherutilizationandbringsthecostdownovertimebelowhuman-drivencostsinthe$0.8-$1.0/milerange.WethinktherewillultimatelybefivelayersintheAVecosystem:1)OEMsthatbuildvehicles;

2)AVtechandsoftwareproviders;3)Fleetoperators;4)Financialplayersowningtheassetorlendingtofleetoperators;and5)Demandplatforms.WhilethereisconcernthatAVswillleadtosupplyconcentration(e.g.Waymo)andhurtrideshareeconomics,webelievebetterAImodelsareacceleratingthetimetomarketforAVsoftwareproviders,andtherearemultipleAVproviderslikeTesla,Zoox,MayMobility,Avride,Nuro,VWMOIA,etc.ontracktodeploycommercialAVoperationsinthenext12-18months.ThegatingfactorforAVcommercializationwillbeonthehardwareside.WhileTeslaandZooxoperateanend-to-endplatformandWaymodoesboth1P+3P,weexpectmostAVproviderstopartnerwithrideshareplatformsfordemandgenerationastheylooktoscaleprofitablyovertime.Asshownin

Figure31,

mostAVprovidershavepartneredwithUberandLyfttolaunchcommercialdeploymentsinUScitiesoverthenext12-18months.WethinkrideshareplatformsshouldhelpdriveincrementaldemandandutilizationforAVproviders,andAVsshouldultimatelydriveTAMexpansion.We’realsoencouraged,especiallybyUber’swillingnesstoinvestinbuildingtheAVusecase,throughtheirinvestmentsinAVprovidersaswellastheirabilitytousetheirbalancesheettoowntheAVsupply.

TheCurrentLandscapeandFutureProspectsofChineseRobotaxiPlayers(AlexYao).Thedevelopmentofrobotaxisdependsonthedevelopmentofhardwarecostreduction,algorithmsophistication,andgovernmentsupportintermsofareaofcommercialoperation.WebelieverobotaxisproducedbyChineseautomakershavealreadyreachedacommerciallyviablecostlevelandChineserobotaxidevelopers’algorithmsaresufficientlysophisticatedtoreplaceasignificantamountofhumancost.However,Chineseregulatorsseemtobereluctanttoaggressivelyallowsizableareaforrobotaxicommercialoperation,especiallyintier1cities.WebelievethelackofsizableareaforcommercialoperationinthedomesticmarketwillforceChina’srobotaxioperatorstogooverseasforrobotaxioperation.ThisgoingabroadinitiativeremainsinanearlystageasthelikesofBaidu,WeRideandPony.AIarecurrentlytestingtheirsolutionsinoverseasmarkets.Webelievetheincumbentride-hailingaggregatorisstructurallybestplacedtomonetizerobotaxisfirst,regardlessofwhethervehiclesareinternallydevelopedorexternallysourced.DidileadsChina’sride-hailingmarketwith~70%sharebymostaccounts,anditsscaleisevidentinitsdisclosedactivitymetrics(e.g.,12.4billionChina-Mobilitytransactionsin2024).LayeringautonomoussupplyontoanalreadydensemarketplaceimprovesETAs,fulfillment,andliquidity,benefitsthataccrueimmediatelytothelargestnetwork,inourview.Foranewcomer,recreatingcomparabledensityisextremelycapital-intensive.

ImplicationsforEuropeanTechhardwareandPayments(SandeepDeshpande).ADASisamajorgrowthdriverforEuropeansemiconductorcompanies,withautomotive

NeerajSKookada,CFA

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GlobalTechTeam

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MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

HarlanSur

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J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

SamikChatterjee,CFA

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SandeepDeshpande

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EuropeanInsuranceTeam

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KamranMHossain

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15October2025

semiconductorsastheirmainendmarket.TheshifttoADASandSoftwareDefinedVehicles(SDVs)istransformingvehiclearchitecturefromdistributedECUstocentralizedzonecontrollers,increasingthedemandformicrocontrollers(MCUs).InfineonhasbecomethemarketleaderinautomotiveMCUsandradar,positioningitstronglyforADASandSDVtrends.STMicroelectronicsisleveragingbothitsASICpartnershipwithMobileyeanditsownexpandingMCUandsensorportfolio,holdingthe#2spotinautomotivepowersemiconductors.MelexisfocusesonsupplyingsensorsandmotordriverICsforADASapplications.Theseshiftscreatebothopportunitiesandrisksforsemiconductorcompaniesintheevolvingautomotivemarket.

ImplicationsforAsianTechhardwareandSemis(GokulHariharan).WhileADASisstillasmallportionoftheAsiansemiconductorindustryrevenue(forexample,autoelectronicsaccountforonly5%ofTSMC'srevenueandevenlessforADAS)comparedtomainstreamconsumerelectronicsorHighPerformanceComputing,webelieveitisanimportantlongtermdriverfollowingtheEVpenetration,whichwillrequiremorecuttingedgesemiconductordesignsandleadingedgeprocessdevelopment.SemiconductorsarecrucialforADASdevelopment,ashighcomputingpowerandverylowlatencyareessential.Intheautoindustry,reliabilityisatoppriority,leadingvendorstopreferexperiencedsupplierswithstrongtrackrecords.

ImplicationsfortheSemiconductorSector(SamikChatterjee).AutomotivesuppliersinourcoveragethathaveapotentialstakeintheoverallADASpieinclude-QualcommandMobileye.BothQualcommandMobileyehaveanincumbentpositionwithintheautomotivemarket,withQualcommtrackingtoasignificantshareforsupplyingsemiconductorchipstopowerdigitalchassisincludinginfotainmentandconnectivitysystems,whileMobileyehasamaterialshareofthebasicADASmarketpoweringbasicfeatureslikeLaneKeepAssist(LKA)andForwardCollisionAvoidance(FCA).Goingforward,weexpectadoptionofmoreadvancedADAS/ADtobeanincrementalcontentopportunityforbothcompanies,althoughweseeQualcommpositionedtoleverageADASadoptionwhileMobileyeisbetterpositionedthanQualcommtoleverageadoptionofrobo-taxis.WhiletheADASopportunityremainslargelyconstrainedbytheappetiteofconsumervehicleOEMs,theopportunitywithRobo-taxiscaninflectmateriallyfaster,albeitfromalowerbase,andcaninflectrapidlygiventhelikelihoodofinvestmentsfromnon-traditionalautomotiveOEMs.

ImplicationsforNvidia(HarlanSur).Nvidia’skeyadvantagerelativetocompetitorsisitsverticallyintegrated,high-performancecomputingstack–a“cloud-to-car”offeringthatspansmultipletouchpointswithcustomers,includingmodeldevelopment/training(datacenterGPUs/networking)toin-vehiclesilicon(e.g.DRIVEThorandOrin)andsoftware(DRIVEOS).Thecompany’sautomotive-verticalrevenueispoisedtoapproach$5BinCY2025,andweseea30-40%revenueCAGRoverthenextfewyearsaswellwithinreach,fueledbygrowingcomputerequirementsformodeltraining(datacenterGPUs),increasingADAS-relatedin-vehiclesiliconcontentandsharegainswithkeyautoOEMs.

ImplicationsfortheInsuranceSector(FarooqHaniff).ItwillbeimpossibleforADAStoeliminateaccidentsduetodrivererrororeliminatethecostofclaimsduetoaccidentaldamage,propertydamageandcostofbodilyinjuryclaimsentirely.Theremayalsobeotherfactorsthatthetechnologymaynotfullyaddress(e.g.windscreendamageduetoweathereventsorexternalfactors-ortheftofvehicles).Therefore,ADASisunlikelytoobviatetheneedforaretailinsuranceindustry.Inthisnote,wesetoutsomeoftheimplicationsfortheinsuranceindustryandthegovernanceofpoliciesinthefollowingsections.

ImplicationsforTrucks(AkshatKacker).In2025,withintheTrucksector,wehaveseenlandmarkcommercialdriverlessdeployments,regulatoryadvancements,andgrowthinindustrialpartnerships.IntheUS,wehaveidentifiedKodiakRobotics,Aurora,Waymo

4

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GlobalEquityResearch

15October2025

amongstotherplayersintheAutonomoustruckspace.InEurope,wenoteEinrideandABVolvocontinuetotestandrolloutelectricandautonomoustrucks,withoperationalpilotsonpublicroads.Webelievethatovertimeautonomoustruckswillhelpalleviatetheshortageoftruckdrivers,wheretheInternationalRoadTransportUnionpredictsthatby2028,Europecouldbeshortof745000truckdrivers–17%ofthetotalrequiredworkforce.

J.P.MorganAutonomousDrivingKeyStocks

.Thestockslistedin

Table11

identifythepubliccompaniesmostexposedtothismegatrendinthecomingyears.Approximately45publiccompaniesareinvolved,distributedregionallyasfollows:18fromtheUSA,10fromEurope,9fromChina,5fromJapan,2fromKorea,and1fromTaiwan.Ofthese,17companiesarecategorizedasOEMsandTruckOEMs,14assuppliers,and5eachinthesemiconductor,technologyandrobottaxisectors.Theremainingcompaniesfallunderthe

internetmediaandservicescategory.

Table12

highlightstechnologycompaniesexposedtothismegatrend,featuring19keyplayersinthemarket,with6fromtheUSA,5fromSouthKorea,4fromChina,and2eachfromJapanandEurope.

5

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15October2025

TableOfContents

AutonomousDrivingandRobotaxiCompetitionGlobal

Landscape

6

GlobalADASCompetitiveLandscape:

KeyPlayers

6

GlobalADAS

ForecastbyRegion

13

GlobalAutonomousDriving

Landscape

15

MissionZero-AvoidingFatalAccidents

17

WhattheDataSays:AutonomousMotorVehicleTesting

Data 20

Haniff) 23

AutonomousDriving-ImplicationsforInsurers(Farooq

USAV&Rideshare(DougAnmuth) 29

ADAS:ImplicationsforAsianTechhardwareandSemis

(GokulHariharan)

41

TSMC(coveredbyGokulHariharan)

42

Nvidia(HarlanSur)

43

ImplicationsforEuropeanTechHardware&Payments

(SandeepDeshpande)

44

SemiconductorsPositioningforADAS(SamikChatterjee)

45

HowareOEMsoverall

positioned

47

TechnologyandRobotaxicompanies

63

TruckCompanies

70

J.P.MorganADASKeyStocks

76

6

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15October2025

AutonomousDrivingandRobotaxi

CompetitionGlobalLandscape

GlobalADASRegulatoryLandscapeacrossregions

Table1:AutonomousDrivingRegulation:Europe,USA,China

MetricEuropeUnitedStatesChina

State-based,nofederalframework:38stateshaveAVlaws,varyingwidely.CaliforniaandNevadatestingL3/L4/4approvals.NHTSAprovidesguidancebutnobindingrules.AVIApushesforfederalstandards

(2025).

L2+(widespread),L3(limited),L4(testing):L3inCalifornia,Nevada(Mercedes);L4inspecificcities(e.g.,Phoenix,SanFrancisco).NoL5.

Variesbystate:CaliforniarequiresDMVpermits,

safetydriverforinitialL4tests,andincidentreportingwithin120hours.Otherstateslessstrict.

approvedroutesonly.

L3:Limitedinspecificroads(California,Nevada).L4:Geofenced(e.g.,PhoenixforWaymo);safetydriverinitialrequired.NonationwideL4rules.

Centralizedwithlocalflexibility:Nationalguidelines(2018)forL3/L4testing;Shenzhen's2022L5rules.Locallicensesin30+cities(e.g.,Beijing,Wuhan).Draftnationalstandards

(2020)alignwithSAElevels.

L2+(widespread),L3/L4(testing),L5(Shenzhen):L4robotaxisinBeijing,Wuhan;ShenzhenallowsL5in

designatedareas.

Structured,phased:Non-publiczonetestingfirst,thendesignatedpublicroads.SafetydriverorremoteoperatorrequiredforL4;32,000kmoftests.

L3/L4:Geofencedin19+cities;safetydriverorremoteoperatormandatoryforroboshuttles/robotaxis.ShenzhenallowsfullydriverlessL5.

EU-wideandnational:EUGeneralSafetyRegulation

(2019/2144,effective2022)mandatesL2+ADAS;UNECER157(2023)allowsL3upto130km/honmotorways;

Germany's2021L4lawand2022AFGBVpermitdriverlessL4inapprovedareas.UK'sAutomatedVehiclesAct2024setsL4framework.

L2+(widespread),L3(limited),L4(testing):L3allowedinGermany(Mercedes,BMW);L4permittedinapprovedzones(e.g.,Germany,UK).NoL5yet.

Strict,harmonized:EUrequirescybersecurity,datarecording,andsafetyassessmentsforL3/L4.GermanymandatestechnicalsupervisorsforL4.Testingon

L3:Limitedtomotorways,lowspeeds(40-60km/hinGermany).L4:Geofencedareas,remotesupervisionallowed(Germany,UK).NonationwideL4operations.

AutonomyLevelsPermitted

OperationalRestrictions

RegulatoryFramework

TestingRequirements

Source:J.P.Morgan,Companies,internetsources

GlobalADASCompetitiveLandscape:KeyPlayers

China'sAutonomousDrivingLandscape(NickLai)

InChina,Level2+andLevel3systemsarecommoninconsumerelectricvehicles,

whileLevel4autonomydominatesrobotaxiservices,withnocompanyachievingLevel

5.RobotaxileaderslikeBaidu,Pony.ai,andWeRideoperateinmultiplecities,whileEVmakerssuchasXPeng,LiAuto,NIO,andBYDfocusonnationwideADAS

deployment.Vision-basedAIandmaplessnavigationaregainingtraction,thoughlidarremainscrucialforLevel4systems.CompanieslikeXPeng,NIOandHuaweiare

developingin-housechipstoreducerelianceonNvidia.Governmentsupportincludesover25citieswithtestingzonesandShenzhen’sleadershipinLevel4regulations.

PoliciesrequiresafetyoperatorsforLevel4roboshuttlesbutallowremoteoperatorsforrobotaxis.Robotaxiswilltargeturbanmarkets,whileaffordableLevel2+/Level3

systemsfromBYDandXPengwilldrivemassadoption.

7

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Table2:ChinaAutonomousDrivingCompetitors

Company

Baidu(Apollo)

AutonomyLevel

L4,L2+/L3

Activity

Robotaxis,ADASforautomakers

RolloutstrategyTechnology

AI,5Gclouddriving,HDmaps,

ApolloGoin11+cities(e.g.,Beijing,Wuhan);6M+

ridesbymid-2024;25M+kmtested

lidar,radar,cameras

Partnership

Geely,Toyota,SAIC,Tesla

Pony.ai

L4

Robotaxis,robotrucks,urbanservices

~250robotaxisinBeijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen;25+cities

Lidar,radar,cameras,scalableL4stack

Toyota,GAC

WeRide

L4

Robotaxis,minibuses,urbanservices

25+cities;13M+kmdriven;MiniRobotbus,RoboStreetSweeper

Lidar,radar,cameras,multi-vehicleL4platform

Nissan,GAC,Uber

XPengMotors

L2+,L3(L4planned)

ConsumerEVADAS

XNGPinmass-producedEVs(e.g.,MONAM03Max);testinginmultiplecities

Vision-basedAI,mapless

navigation,lidar(selectmodels)

Volkswagen

LiAuto

L2+,L3

ConsumerEVADAS

500,000+vehiclessold,generatingADASdata;L3testingin7cities

NvidiaDriveThor(2,000TOPS),lidar,radar,cameras

-

NIO

L2+,L3

ConsumerEVADAS

NationwideL2+NOP/NAD;L3testingin7cities

ShenjiNX9031chip(5nm),lidar,radar,cameras

Nvidia

Huawei(Aito)

L2+,L3

ADASforAitoEVsandotherbrands

AitoM7/M9in40,000+towns;500,000vehiclestargetedbyend-2024

Ascendchips,5G,vision-basedAI,lidar(selectmodels)

Seres,Hesai,Didi

BYD

L2+,L3

ConsumerEVADAS

L2+inaffordableEVs(from$9,555);L3testingin7cities

God'sEyeADAS,lidar(Hesai),radar,cameras

Nvidia,HorizonandDJI

DeepRoute.ai

L4

Urbanrobotaxis

RobotaxisinShenzhensince2021;smallerscaletesting

Cost-effectiveL4stack,lidar,radar,cameras

-

AutoX

L4

Urbanrobotaxis

DriverlessrobotaxisinShenzhenandothercities;publicroadtestpermits

Lidar,radar,cameras,L4autonomystack

-

Source:J.P.Morgan,Company,InternetSources

EuropeanADASCompetitiveLandscape(JoseM.Asumendi)

EuropeleadsinLevel3consumerautonomoussystemswithMercedes-BenzandBMW,whileLevel2+systemsarewidelydeployed.Level4autonomyisbeingtestedby

Volkswagen,WayveandAptiv,butlarge-scalerobotaxiservicesareabsentcomparedtotheUSandChina.MobileyeandAptivdominatetheADASmarket,whileBMWand

MercedesfocusonpremiumLevel3systems.Technologieslikecamera-basedAIandsensorfusionareprevalent,withWayve'smaplessAIofferingauniquescalability

approach.ProgressiveAVlegislationexists,suchasGermany's2021Level4lawand

theUK's2024AVAct,thoughSpainhasn'tratifiedtheUNViennaConvention.DespiteEUsupportthroughprogramslikeCARTRE,SCOUT,andSTRIA,highregulatory

standards,fragmentedmarkets,andpublictrustissues,includingsafetyconcernspost-Uber2018,slowLevel4adoption.Urbancomplexityanddiversetrafficrulesalsoposechallenges.

WebelieveEuropewilllagintermsofadoptionofautonomousdrivingtechnology

versustheadoptionrateswemayseeinChinaortheUS.Havingsaidthis,wedoexpectthatOEMsheadquarteredinEuropewillusethisopportunitytodeployandresearch

level4/5ADASintheUSAandChinawithtechnologypartnerstoremainwellintheADASrace.WedetailintheupcomingsectionsthedifferentinitiativestheOEMsarecarryingoutgloballytocompete.

8

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Table3:EuropeanAutonomousDrivingCompetitors

Company

Mobileye(Intel)

BMWGroup

Mercedes-Benz

Volkswagen(Cariad)

Wayve

Aptiv

AutonomyLevel

L2+,L3,L4

L2+,L3

L2+,L3

L2+,L3,L4

L2+,L4(planned)

L2+,L4

Activity

ADAS,L4robotaxiplatforms

ConsumerEVADAS

ConsumerEVADAS

ADAS,L4robotaxis

AI-drivenautonomyforOEMs

ADAS,L4ride-hailing

Supplies100M+vehiclesglobally;testinginGermany,France,Israel

PersonalPilotL3inGermany(60km/hon

motorways);L2+HighwayAssistantgloballyDrivePilotL3inGermany,California,Nevada(limitedroads);100,000+L2+vehicles

L2+inID.Buzz,Golf;L4testingwithMoiainHamburg,Munich

TestinginUK(London,Oxford);nocommercialrobotaxiserviceyet

SuppliesADASto50M+vehicles;L4robotaxitestingwithLyftinLasVegas

RolloutstrategyTechnologyPartnership

Volkswagen,BMW,Geely,Ford

Technologies

Nvidia,Bosch,Luminar

Mobileye,ArgoAI(former),BoschMicrosoft,Uber,SoftBank

Hyundai(Motional),Lyft

EyeQchips,camera-basedAI,RSSsafetyframework,lidar/radarforL4

HEREUniMap,lidar,radar,cameras,AI-Mobileye,Intel,HEREdrivenperception

Lidar,radar,cameras,sensorfusion,NvidiaDRIVEOrin

Lidar,radar,cameras,Cariadsoftwarestack,AI-basedperception

EmbodiedAI,camera-based,maplessnavigation,sensor-agnosticplatform

Lidar,radar,cameras,multi-domaincontroller,AI-basedperception

Source:J.P.Morgan,Companies,internetsources

USAutonomousDrivingCompetitiveLandscape(RyanBrinkman)

IntheUS,companiesarefocusingonLevel4autonomyforrobotaxis,ledbyWaymoandZoox,whileLevel2+/Level3systemsarecommoninconsumervehiclesfrom

TeslaandMercedes-Benz.NoLevel5vehiclesareavailable.Waymoleadsintestingwithover20millionmilesonroads,whileTesla'sLevel2+FSDiswidelyadoptedbyconsumers.WhileWaymousesalidar-heavysystem,Teslareliesoncamera-basedAI,andMercedesusessensorfusionforLevel3.

TheregulatoryenvironmentlacksnationalAVstandards,with29statesandD.C.havingvariedlegislation.Level4testingislimitedtocertaincities,likethoseinCaliforniaandNevada.Challengesincludesafetyconcerns,regulatoryfragmentation,andpublictrustissues.Level4AVshavelowercrashratesformoderateandfatalaccidentsbutstrugglewithturnsandlow-lightconditions.

Table4:USAutonomousDrivingCompetitors

Rolloutstrategy

Lidar,radar,cameras,AI,sensorfusion

Camera-basedAI,neural

networks,in-housechips

Lidar,radar,cameras,advancedsensorfusion

Lidar,radar,cameras,

bidirectionalvehicledesign

Alphabet,

Chrysler,Jaguar

None(in-housefocus)

Bosch,Nvidia

Amazon

OperatesinPhoenix,SanFrancisco,

LosAngeles;20M+milesdriven,billionsinsimulation

3B+milesdriveninAutopilot/FSD;nationwidedeployment

DrivePiloton2024S-Class,EQSinCalifornia,Nevada(limitedroads)

TestinginSanFrancisco,LasVegas;purpose-builtvehicles

ConsumerEVADAS

ConsumerEVADASRobotaxis

Tesla

Mercedes-

Benz

Zoox

(Amazon)

L2+(FSD)L3

L4

TechnologyPartnership

AutonomyLevel

Robotaxis

Company

Activity

Waymo

L4

Source:J.P.Morgan,Companies,internetsources

LatinAmerica'sAutonomousDrivingLandscape(MarcelloMotta)

Therobo-taximarketinLatinAmericaispoisedforremarkablegrowth,with

projectionsindicatinganincreasefromapproximatelyUSD86.7mnin2024toaround

USD1.85bnby2030,reflectingaCAGRofapproximately72%.DespitetheanticipatedsmallermarketsizeforADASinLatinAmericacomparedtodevelopedregions,the

regionoffersauniqueopportunityforcompaniestorefinetheirtechnologies.The

complextrafficconditionsincitiessuchasSãoPaulo,MexicoCity,Lima,and

Barranquilla,characterizedbyaggressivelanechanges,highpedestriandensity,and

9

JoseMAsumendiAC(44-20)7742-5315

jose.m.asumendi@

GlobalEquit