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Who’srightaboutAI:economistsortechnologists?

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OpinionGlobalEconomy

Who’srightaboutAI:economistsortechnologists?

Forecastingtheimpactofartificialintelligencehasbecomefraught,withevangelistspitchedagainstsceptics

JOHNTHORNHILLAddtomyFT

OpenAIchiefexecutiveSamAltmanhastalkedupthepotentialofthetechnology.EconomistsoftenhaveamoreconservativeviewofhowAIwillaffectproductivity©jasonRedmond/AFP/GettyImages

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JohnThornhill

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Itisrareforacentralbankinginstitutiontomodeltheeconomicimpactofhumanextinction(spoileralert:GDPgoestozero).ButastartlingchartdepictingthatscenariowasshowninarecentresearchpaperfromtheFederalReserveBankofDallas.

ForecastingthelikelyimpactofartificialintelligenceonUSeconomicgrowth,theresearcherspresentedthreescenarios.TheircentralforecastwasthatAImightboostthetrendgrowthofUSGDPpercapitato2.1percentfor10years.“Nottrivialbutnotearthshatteringeither,”thereport’sauthors,MarkWynneandLillianDerr,wrote.

ButthebankalsoconsideredwhatmighthappenifAIachievedthetechnologicalsingularity,whenmachineintelligencesurpassesthehumankindandbecomeseversmarter.

Inagoodcase,thatsuperintelligencecouldtriggeramassiveriseinGDPandendscarcity.Inabadone,itcouldleadtotheriseofmalevolentmachinesandendhumanity.Therewas,theauthorsnoted,littleempiricalevidencebehindeitheroftheseextremescenarios,althoughsomeeconomistshavebeenexploringbothpossibilities.

Evidently,thereisawidespectrumofviewsamongeconomistsaboutAI.Buttheeconomicconsensusisthatitmightbenomoreconsequentialthansomeothertechnologicaladvances,suchaselectricity,theinternalcombustionengineandcomputers.

IttakesamassivetechnologicaljolttoshiftaneconomythesizeoftheUSaboveitsgrowthtrendlineofjustunder2percentayear.Formorethanacentury,thattrendhasheldprettysteadyinspiteoftwoworldwars,theDepressionandperiodicglobalfinancialcrises,nottomentionmyriadprevioustechnologicaladvances.

Moreover,economistsargue,therapiddiffusionofAIweseetodaywillnotautomaticallytranslateintoproductiveadoption.Indeed,itmaytemporarilyleadtoalossofproductivityasjobsareshuffledandnewwaysofworkingareintroduced—theso-calledJ-curve.

ButAIevangelistshearsuchargumentswithslackjaws.Manyofthemdepicteconomistsasadownbeatandconservativetribe,vainlytryingtopredictthefuturebylookingintherear-viewmirror.Thewaytheyseeit,automatingbrawntriggeredtheIndustrialRevolutionandautomatingthebrainwillleadtoanevenbiggerjumpinproductivity.Thatshouldsurelyshiftthetrendlineinadramaticway.

Lastweek,theStanfordDigitalEconomyLabhostedaseminartodebatethecontrastingviewsofeconomistsandtechnologists.ThediscussionwasledbyTamayBesiroglu,co-founderofMechanize,anAIstart-upthatwantstoenable“thefullautomationoftheeconomy”.

OnewayofthinkingaboutAI,hesaid,wasthatitwouldenableustoinjectsignificantnewinputsintotheeconomybymassivelyincreasingthenumberofdigitalworkerstotacklemanymoretasks.“AIeffectivelyturnslabourintoatypeofcapital,”Besiroglusaid.

AnotherwayinwhichAImightboostproductivityisbygeneratinganddiffusingmoreusefulideas.InhisgreatbookTheEnlightenedEconomy,theeconomichistorianandrecentNobellaureateJoelMokyrarguedthattheIndustrialRevolutionoccurredinBritainwhenitdidbecauseoftherapidcirculationandadoptionofpracticalknowledge.TheDallasFedpaperacknowledgedthatAIcouldwellacceleratediscoveryandinnovationinunpredictablewaysthatwouldmeaningfullycontributetohigherlivingstandards.

Althoughthedifferencesbetweeneconomistsandtechnologistsappearstark,ErikBrynjolfsson,directoroftheStanfordDigitalEconomyLab,saystheyarenotincompatible.“Ithinktheybothhavealotoftruthtotheirpositions.Andthere’sawaytoreconcilethem,”hetoldme.

Afterstudyingproductivitygainsfrompreviousgeneral-purposetechnologiessuchassteamengines,electricityandIT,Brynjolfssonsuggeststhebiggesteconomicimpactoftencomesfrominvestmentsincomplementaryareas,ratherthanfromdirectinvestmentsinthesetechnologiesthemselves.

So,forexample,ittookagenerationbeforeredesignedfactorieswerebuilttoexploitthefullbenefitsofelectricity.Hesuggeststhegainswillarrivealotquickerfrom“amazing”AIbuttheywillstillnotbeimmediate.“Thesecomplementaryinvestmentsarewheretherealactionis.Andtheytaketimeandareverycomplicated,”hesays.

Thatsuggestsbotheconomistsandtechnologistsmaybepartlyrightbutpreciselywrong.Productivitygrowthmayeventuallybefarbiggerthanmosteconomistscurrentlyforecastbutfarslowerthanmanytechnologistspredict.

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