2025年实现碳捕集与封存的有效落地：经济可行性与赋能条件战略指南报告（英文版）-罗兰贝格

REPORT

MakingCarbonCapture&StorageWork

Astrategicguidetoeconomicviabilityandenablingconditions

Managementsummary

C

arboncaptureandstorage(CCS)isavitaltechnologyfordecarbonizingenergy-intensiveindustriesandmitigatingclimatechange.Afterdecadesofevolution,over200milliontonsofCO₂safelystoredglobally,andcostsdecliningtowardbreakeven,thechallengeisnolongertechnical–it'saligningtheinstitutional,regulatory,andsocialconditionsthatalloweconomicallyviableCCSprojectstogetbuilt.

InterviewswithleadersfromacrosstheCCSvaluechainrevealedthreeunanimousconcerns:financialviabilitychallenges,unclearliabilityframeworks,andlowsocial

acceptance.Theeconomicsarecontext-dependent.Capturecostsvarydramaticallybysector:Inchemicals,ammoniaproductionenjoysnaturaladvantagesduetohigh

CO₂concentrations,whilecementandsteelfacehighercosts.Energysourcingalsoprovesdecisive–heatpumpsenableviabilityin35of42countriesby2040versusjustsixusingelectricheaters.Customerwillingnesstopayisalsoemergingasakeyfactor,

creatingastrategicwindowbeforemarketscommoditize.

Beyondeconomics,socialacceptanceofCCSlagsbehindthatofotherclimate

technologiesandvariesbygeography.Regulatorystabilitymattersatleastasmuchassubsidygenerosityandliabilityclarityisurgent,ascurrentframeworksremain

immatureacrossfiveriskcategories.

Adecisivewindowexistsfrom2025to2035whereearlymoverswillcaptureadvantagesthroughgreenpremiumsandinfrastructureaccess.Tosucceed,industryplayers

Cover:boonchaiwedmakawand/GettyImages

shouldestablishcompetitivepositioning,manageuncertaintyproactively,andsecurecustomer-backedofftake.Conversely,regulatorscansupportbyprioritizingstable

frameworksovergenerousbutunpredictablesubsidies,clarifyingliabilityallocation,andenablingcross-borderabatement.

Successrequiresmultidimensionalexcellence.Thecountriesandcompaniesexcellingatorchestration–buildingtrust,creatingalignment,maintainingcommitment–willleadtheCCSera.

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Contents

1

4

Page

UnderstandingtheeconomicsofCCSviability

1.1/Thethree-partvaluechain

1.2/Energy:Thehiddencostmultiplier

1.3/Customerwillingnesstopay:Therevenuesideoftheequation

1.4/Financialviability:Whendoesitallcometogether?

30

2

Beyondeconomics:

Regulatory,social,andriskfactors

2.1/Regulatoryuncertainty:Theinvestmentkiller

2.2/Socialacceptance:Thehiddenveto

2.3/Risksandliabilities:Thebankabilitychallenge

3

39

ImprovingCCSdecision-makingandoutcomes

3.1/TheCCSdecisionframework

3.2/Recommendationsforindustryplayers

3.3/Calltoactionforregulators

3.4/Thepathforward

Fast

facts

ofCCSoperatingcostscome

fromenergyconsumption

(of42analyzed)achieveCCS

viabilityby2040usingheatpumptechnology

reduction

85%

inpipeline

transportationcostsfromscaleeconomies

(transporting

10mvs.5mtonsannually)

4RolandBerger|MakingCarbonCapture&StorageWork

1

UnderstandingtheeconomicsofCCSviability

Forindustrialleadersweighinginvestmentsincarboncaptureandstorage(CCS),thequestionisnotwhetherthetechnologyworks,butratherwhenitbecomeseconomicallycompellingfortheirspecificcircumstances.Theanswerdependsonacomplexinterplayoffactorsthatvarydramaticallybysector,geography,andtimeline.

ThischapterexaminesthefulleconomicpictureofCCSviability,movingbeyondsimplecostestimatestoexplorehowcapturetechnology,transportationlogistics,storageoptions,energysourcing,marketdynamics,andregulatoryincentivescombinetodeterminecommercialfeasibility.OuranalysisrevealsthatCCSisalreadyviableforcertainapplicationsinadvancedeconomies,whileothersectorsandregionsfacetimelinesextendingto2030orbeyond.

1.1/Thethree-partvaluechain

UnderstandingCCScostsrequiresexaminingthreedistinctactivities:capturingCO₂fromindustrialprocesses,transportingittostoragesites,andinjectingitundergroundforpermanentsequestration.Today,transportationandstoragecanaccountforupto50%ofthetotalcostsduetolimitedscale.However,astechnologyevolvesandprojectsscale,weexpectcapturecoststodominate,accountingforaround60to75%oftotalexpenses.Thepercentageofcostsassociatedwithtransportationandstoragewouldlikelydeclinerelativetocapture,dependingonscale,distance,andgeology,asthesevaryconsiderablyacrossprojects.A

ACapturewillaccountforthelargestshareoftotalcostsinCCSinthefuture

ExpectedCCScostdriversalongthevaluechainby2040

1CO2capture2CO2transportation

Costsassociatedwith

capturing,purifying,and

compressingCO2fromindustrialprocessesorpowerplants

Costsassociatedwith

transportingcapturedCO2tostoragesites

3CO2storage

Costsassociatedwith

injectingCO2intogeologicalstoragesites

5-15%

15-25%

60-75%

Source:RolandBerger

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Currentcarboncapturecosts,includingallstepsbeforetransportation,e.g.,capture,purification,andcompression,rangefrom60to80USDpertonofCO₂acrossmostsectors,butthesefiguresmaskimportantvariationsdependingonCO2concentration,partialpressure,andimpurity.Chemicalsandrefiningindustriesenjoysubstantiallylowerbaselinecosts—oftenstartingat40to50USD/tbecausetheirprocessesnaturallygeneratehigherconcentrationsofCO₂.Intheethanolfermentationprocess,forinstance,CO₂concentrationcanreach99%,comparedtojust3to5%innaturalgas-basedpowergeneration.Thisdifferencetranslatesdirectlyintoenergyrequirements:ConcentratingandseparatingCO₂fromdilutegasstreamsrequiressignificantlymoreenergythancapturingitfromconcentratedsources.B

BHigherpressurelevelsmaketheCO2captureprocessmorecost-effectiveandtechnicallyfeasible

CO2concentration[%]andpartialpressurebysector[kPa]

IndustryCO2concentration[%]CO2partialpressure[kPa]

Powergeneration(gas)

3-5%

3510

Powergeneration(biomass)

10-15%

1015100

Iron&steel

15-30%

20

●

50

●

100

Cement

15-30%

10

35

100

Refining

10-30%

5

500

1,000

Chemicals(ammonia)

15-20%

500

1,000

Chemicals(ethanol)

99%+

85

●

1,000

Easeofcapturing/purification

LowHigh

Low

High

HighLowHighLow

Carboncapturecost

Source:IPCC,GCA,IEAWEO2021,WorldSteel,BiofuelsDigest,USDOE,CellPress,IAI,GlobalCSSInstitute,RolandBerger

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TherelationshipbetweenCO₂concentration,partialpressure,andcapturecostscreatesanaturalhierarchyofsectoralreadiness.IndustriesproducingconcentratedandpureCO₂streamscanpotentiallyimplementCCSmorecost-effectively,givingthemearlieraccesstoviabledecarbonizationpathways.Thistechnicalrealityshapescompetitivedynamicsandexplainswhychemicalsandrefiningsectorsshowstrongernear-termeconomicsthanpowergenerationorsteel.

TECHNOLOGYEVOLUTIONRESHAPESTHECOSTCURVE

Today'scarboncapturemarketreliesheavilyonfirst-generationaminetechnology,whichaccountsforthevastmajorityofcurrentinstallationsacrossmostsectors.Whileprovenandreliable,aminesystemsfacecompetitionfromemergingalternatives,includingsolidsorbents,cryogenicseparation,physicalabsorption,andadvancedcombustioncyclesthatpromiseimprovedefficiencyorlowercostsforspecificapplications.

Thesesecondarytechnologiescurrentlycostbetween30and150USD/tdependingontheapproach,comparedtoamine's30to50USD/trange.By2040,ouranalysisprojectsthataminetechnologywillretaintheleadingposition,butthat,secondarytechnologieswillcapture10to40%marketsharedependingonthesector,drivenbytheiradvantagesinspecificcontexts.Theoxy-cycle,forinstance,hasthepotentialtogeneratehighthermalefficiency(approximately60%)inpowergeneration,whilesolidsorbentsexcelinapplicationswithlowCO₂pressurewithmorethan85%adsorptionefficiency.C

CCSistechnicallymatureandcommerciallyproven.

Thechallengenowisextending

viabilitytobasecommodities

likesteel,cement,ammonia.

Productcarbonstandardsas

qualifyingcriteriaformarket

participationwillbekey

toscalingthisindustry."

NiallMacDowell,ProfessorofFutureEnergySystems,

ImperialCollegeLondon

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Secondary

technologies

(e.g.,oxy-cycle)

Amine

95%5%90%10%60%40%

Secondary

technologies

(e.g.,solidsorbent)

Amine

95%5%90%10%60%40%

CAmineisthedominantcarboncapturetechnologytoday,withsecondarytechnologiesshowingpotentialtopenetrateby2030

CCtechnologyshareassumptionsbyindustry

202220302040

Primary

technology

Othercompeting

OtherPrimaryOtherPrimaryOther

technologies1Primary

Power

generation-

Gas

Power

generation-

Biomass

Secondary

technologies

(e.g.,physical

Amine

Iron&

steel

absorption)2

Secondary

technologies

(e.g.,cryogenic)

Secondary

technologies

(e.g.,oxy-fuel

combustion)

Secondary

technologies

(e.g.,oxy-fuel

combustion)

100%

0%

90%

10%

90%

D

60%

D

60%

60%

10%

Cement

Amine

80%

20%

40%

95%

5%

O&G

refining

Amine

80%

20%

40%

95%

5%

Chemicals

Amine

80%

20%

40%

95%

5%

1Competingtechnologiesexcludesrenewables;2DRIasamature,low-carbonalternativeprocess(butnotconsideredhereasit'snotacarboncapturetechnology)

Source:IEA,GlobalCCSInstitute,Hong,W.Y.(2022),Palma,C.F.(2021),Svante,NETPower,Chart,RolandBerger

Costreductionsoverthenexttwodecadeswillcomefromtwosources:learning-by-doingasdeploymentscales,andtechnologyimprovement.Thesedynamicsshoulddrivecarboncapturecostsdownto30to40USD/tacrossmostsectorsby2040,thoughacostflooraround30USD/treflectsirreducibleoperationalrequirements.D

Thiscostevolutiontimelinehasprofoundimplicationsforfinancialviability.Projectsthat

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DCarboncapturecostsareexpectedtodeclineto30-40USD/tCO2by2040

Carboncapturecostsestimatedbysector,2022-2040[USD/tCO2]

Carboncapturecosts[USD/tCO2]

80

Differencesincostdevelopmentbysectormainlydrivenby

dominantsecondarytechnologytypeandcosts,technology

sharedevelopment,andlearningcurves

LowerbaselineCCcostassumptionsforchemicals(e.g.,ammonia,

70

ethanol,methanol)andrefineriesdrivenbyhighereaseofcapturingduetohigherCO2concentrationandpartialpressure

60

50

40

30

2022202420262028203020322034203620382040 CementSteelRefineryPowergen(gas)Powergen(biomass)Chemicals(NH3)

Calculationsandforecastsforeachsectorconsiderprimarytechnologyandthesecondarytechnologyexpectedtobemostprominent;weightedaverageofreportedtechnologycostsin2022;easeofcapturebysector;technologylearningcurveassumptions(learningrateof0.85forprimaryamineand0.9forsecondarytechnologies);lowercostboundariesdrivenbycoststructure(lowercostboundariesreflectaminimum

30USD/tCO2cost);andregionalnuances

Source:RolandBerger

appeareconomicallymarginaltodaymaybecomecompellingwithinfivetosevenyearspurelythroughtechnologycostreductions,evenwithoutchangesincarbonpricingorpolicysupport.

TRANSPORTATION:THESCALEANDDISTANCEEQUATION

Aftercapture,CO₂musttravel–sometimeshundredsofkilometers–toreachsuitablestoragesites.Thistransportationrequirementintroducesasecondmajorcostcomponentwithitsowndistinctiveeconomics.

PipelinesdominateCO₂transportationtoday,especiallyintheUS,andareprojectedtocarry81to90%ofvolumesthrough2040.Theireconomicsdependcriticallyonterrain,scale,anddistance.Ingeneral,offshorepipelineis50to120%moreexpensivethanonshorenetwork.Withcapitalexpendituresofonetofourmillioneurosperkilometer,pipelinecostsdropprecipitouslyasvolumeincreases:from75USD/tat0.5milliontonsannuallyto11USD/tat10milliontonsannuallyforoffshorenetworks,assumingadistanceof1,000km.E

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EShippingCO2canbeanalternativetooffshorepipelinetransportation,butonlyforlong-distancetransportationofsmallvolumes

Shippingandoffshorepipelinetransportationcosts[USD/tCO2]

Assumingacapacityof2Mt/aTransportationcosts[USD/t]

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1005001,000

Distance[km]

Ship

Offshorepipeline

Assumingadistanceof1,000kmTransportationcosts[USD/t]

75

46

29

27

3128

242417

11

0.512510

Capacity[Mt/a]

OffshorepipelineShip

Source:IEA

Thisscaledependencycreatesafundamentalchallengeforsmalleremitters.Afacilityproducing100,000tonsofCO₂annuallycannoteconomicallyjustifydedicatedpipelineinfrastructure,astheper-toncostswouldbeprohibitive.ThisrealitydrivestheindustriallogicbehindCCShubs,wheremultipleemitterssharetransportationinfrastructuretoachievethevolumesnecessaryforviablepipelineeconomics.

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Forsomeapplications,particularlylong-distancetransportationofsmallervolumestooffshorestorage,shippingoffersacompetitivealternative.Shiptransportationcostsremainrelativelyflatat24to28USD/t(assumingadistanceof1,000kmconsideringdifferenttransportationpressures,shipsizes,andvolumes),makingitattractivefordistancesexceeding1,000kilometersatcapacitiesbelowtwomilliontonsannually.TheflexibilitytorouteCO₂todifferentstoragefacilitiesasopportunitiesariseprovidesadditionalvalue,particularlyinregionsdevelopingmultipleoffshorestoragesites.

Themosteconomicallyattractivescenario,however,involvesrepurposingexistingoilandgaspipelinesforCO₂transportation.Wherefeasible,thisapproachcanreducecostsbymorethan90%comparedtonewpipelineconstruction,providingasignificantadvantagetoemitterslocatednearlegacyfossilfuelinfrastructure.

STORAGE:BALANCINGCAPACITY,COST,ANDACCEPTABILITY

ThefinallinkinthecoreCCSvaluechain–permanentundergroundstorage–presentsabundantglobalcapacitybutsignificantvariationincosts,technicalrequirements,andpublicacceptability.

Depletedoilandgasfieldscurrentlydominateoperationalstorageprojects.Thesesitesofferseveraladvantages:Existinggeologicaldatareducesexplorationcosts,wellsandfacilitiescanpotentiallyberepurposed,andthepresenceofacaprockthatsuccessfullytrappedhydrocarbonsformillionsofyearsprovidesconfidenceinlong-termcontainment.Levelizedcostsvarybetween5USD/tand20USD/tdependingononshoreoroffshorelocation,thoughconcernsaboutwellintegrityandpotentialleakagefromaginginfrastructurerequirecarefulmanagement.

Salineaquifers–deepundergroundformationscontainingbrackishwater–offerthelargesttheoreticalstoragecapacityglobally,withcostsrangingfrom20to50USD/t,dependingontheregionandthegeologicalconditions.However,developingnewaquifersitesrequirescompletereservoircharacterizationintheabsenceofpriorproductiondata.Theneedforongoingmonitoringtodetectpotentialgroundwatercontaminationaddstolong-termcosts.

Basaltformationsrepresentanintriguingalternativewithuniquelong-termadvantages,despitelowerefficiencyandhigherwaterconsumption.WhenCO₂comesintocontactwithbasaltrockinthepresenceofwater,itmineralizesovertimeintosolidcarbonateminerals,effectivelyconvertingthegasintostone.Thiseliminateslong-termleakageconcernsandreducesmonitoringrequirements.However,basaltstorageisarelativelynewstoragesolution,withhigherupfrontcapitalinvestmentrequired.

GlobalstoragecapacityisnotalimitingfactorforCCSdeploymentinthemediumterm,with2,000Gtofstorageavailable.Depletedoilandgasfieldsaloneofferapproximately300billiontonsofcapacity,withtheUnitedStatesaccountingfor205billiontons.Salineaquifersprovideseveraltimesthisamount.MajoroffshorestoragedevelopmentsintheNorthSea–includingNorthernLights(uptosixmilliontonsperannum),Smeaheia(around20milliontonsperannum),andapotentialDutchSeaprojectexceeding100milliontonsperannum–demonstratetheavailabilityandaccessibilityoflarge-scalestorageinfrastructure.F

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FStorageresourcesforCCSareavailableathighcapacitiesinallgeographies

GlobalCO2storageresourceestimates-Example:

Depletedoilorgasfields1[millionsoftons]

UK

Canada

2,400

2,800

Norway

16,000

Russia

10,000

Europe

USA

9,700

China

8,000

205,000

KSA

5,000

Malaysia

13,300

Indonesia

Brazil

4,000

13,000

Australia

16,600

UAE

5,000

ThefocusisonthestorageofCO2indepletedoilandgasfieldsat~300billiontons.

Inaddition,thereareotherstorageoptionswithhighfuturecapacities,e.g.saltcaverns.

1GeologicalstorageresourcesforCO2insalineformationsnotconsideredinthisfigurebutestimatedtobeseveraltimesasmuchasinoilorgasfields

Source:GlobalCCSInstitute

Theconstraintisnotgeologicalbutsocialandregulatory.Europeanpublicsshowgreateracceptanceofoffshorestoragecomparedtoonshoreoptions,whiletheUnitedStatesandCanadahavesuccessfullyoperatedonshorestoragefordecades,evenincludingenhancedoilrecovery.ThesedivergentattitudesshaperegionalCCSstrategiesandinfluenceprojecteconomicsthroughpermittingtimelinesandregulatoryrequirements.

Aggregatingcostsacrossthefullvaluechainrevealssignificantsectoralvariation.Usingmid-range2024costassumptions,totalCCSexpensesrangefrom96EUR/tforchemicals(ammonia)to106EUR/tforcement.Steel,powergenerationviagasandbiomass,andrefiningclusterinthe99to104EUR/trange.Incomparisontomid-costranges,min-costrangescanvarybyupto36USD/tandmax-costrangesbyupto50USD/t.

By2040,costsconvergesubstantiallyaslearningeffectscompoundandinfrastructurematures.Therangefallsbetween77and87EUR/t.Thisconvergencesuggeststhatsectorsenjoyingearlycostadvantagesmayseethesediminishovertime,whilecurrentlyexpensiveapplicationsbecomemoreaccessible.G&H

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GCCScostsvarybetweendifferentindustrysectors,butallofthemshowdecliningtrends,whichbecomeflatterafter2035

CCScostsestimatedbysector-Mid-costrange

CCScosts1[USD/tCO2]

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

2022202420262028203020322034203620382040 CementSteelRefineryPowergen(gas)Powergen(biomass)Chemicals(NH3)

1EstimatedCCScostsincludecostrangesforcarboncapture,transportation,andstorage

Source:RolandBerger

HHigh-costrangesareapproximately40-50USD/thigherthanthemid-rangesbutmorealignedwithbottom-upestimations

CCStop-downcostestimationbysector-High-costrangeCCScosts1[USD/tCO2]

160

150

140

130

120

2022202420262028203020322034203620382040 CementSteelRefineryPowergen(gas)Powergen(biomass)Chemicals(NH3)

1EstimatedCCScostsincludecostrangesforcarboncapture,transportation,andstorage

Source:RolandBerger

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1.2/Energy:Thehiddencostmultiplier

Whilecapitalexpenditureforcaptureequipmentandinfrastructurereceivesconsiderableattention,operationalenergyconsumptionoftendetermineswhetherCCSprojectssucceedorfaileconomically.Energytypicallyrepresentsapproximately70%oftotallevelizedcosts,withtheaminereboiler,whichregeneratesthechemicalsolventthatabsorbsCO₂,consumingroughlytwo-thirdsofenergy-relatedoperatingexpenses.ThisenergyintensitycreatessharpcostdifferentialsacrosscountriesandfundamentallyshapesthegeographyofCCScompetitiveness.AprojectthatachievesfinancialviabilityinSaudiArabiaorNorwaymaystruggleinGermanyorPoland,notduetodifferencesincapturetechnologyorCO₂characteristics,butbecauseofenergypricesandgridcarbonintensity.

Tounderstandthesedynamics,weanalyzedthreeenergysourcingscenariosforpowergenerationvianaturalgaswithcarboncaptureacross42countries,examininghowenergysourcingtechnologychoicesaffectviabilitytimelines.Inouranalysis,realisticbutconservativeassumptionsareapplied.

SCENARIO1:WASTEHEAT-BESTUSEOFWASTEENERGY,BUTLIMITEDAPPLICABILITY

Themosteconomicapproachuseswasteheatfromthepowergenerationprocessitselftodriveamineregeneration.Thislargelyeliminatesincrementalenergycostsforthereboiler,keepingtotalCCScostsattheirlowestpossiblelevels.

Underthisscenario,threecountries–Kazakhstan,SaudiArabia,andNorway–achievefinancialviabilityby2030,whentheirCCScostsfallbelowprojectedcarbonprices.By2040,thirteencountriesreachviability,addingtheUnitedStates,Ukraine,Thailand,Malaysia,Azerbaijan,Canada,Brazil,Türkiye,Japan,andChina.I

However,wasteheatintegrationrequirescarefulsystemdesignandmaynotbefeasibleforallinstallations,particularlyretrofitapplicationsatexistingfacilities.Itsapplicabilityisthereforelimited,eventhoughitoffersthemostattractiveeconomics,whereachievable.

SCENARIO2:ELECTRICHEATER-SIMPLIFIED,BUTCONSTRAINED

Electricresistanceheaterssimplifysystemdesignandeliminatetheneedforsystemintegration,reducingcapitalexpenditure.However,theirlowerenergyefficiencycomparedtoheatpumpscreateshigheroperatingcoststhatproveeconomicallychallenginginmostmarkets.

Underthisscenario,nocountriesachieveCCSviabilityby2030.Evenby2040,onlysixcountries–Norway,SaudiArabia,Canada,Finland,Sweden,andUkraine–reachbreakeven,allcharacterizedbylowelectricitypricesandrelativelycleangridmixesthatminimizethecostofgriddecarbonization.J

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ICostcurveforglobalabatement-Gaspowergeneration

Aminereboilerenergysource:Wasteheat,2040

EUR205CCScosts1[EUR/tCO2]

ETS20402

Singapore481

Sweden430

Finland380

Denmark377

Poland333

Slovakia322

Netherlands321

Germany319

France316

SouthKorea315

Luxembourg310

Hungary306

Czechia302

Ireland293

Slovenia286

Estonia280

Austria274

Latvia270

Italy265

Belgium